Still on the road visiting family and friends, I spent some time thinking about the upcoming year. I would guess I am not alone in the practice. Combining the look forward with some thankfulness for the friends and family on the interwebbings, I thought it was time to put forth my New Year’s Fantasy Resolutions.

1) I will be prepared for the upcoming fantasy season.
Using all the resources at my disposal, I will be ready for every draft that comes my way. Using the Bill James and fan projections on this site, I will navigate between the more sobering projections and the rosiest of outlooks to find the true way. I’ll check out the tiered rankings, get a dollop of the Deep League Value pieces, take a heaping spoonful of 2010 Sleeper spotlights, a couple servings of Free Agent Impact posts, and make sure I haven’t Forgotten anything on the way out. Oh, of course I have – seconds will include these great BABIP-xBABIP and ERA-xFIP split articles that can double as easy sleeper lists. And of course, there’s more on the way to help me dominate my fantasy leagues in the future.

2) I will remember to give thanks for all these wonderful helpers.
I won’t forget to let Marc Hulet know that his prospect pieces keep me on top of more players than I ever thought I would. I won’t hesitate to profess my man-love for Carson Cistulli, whether he hits the nail right on the head or slips and nicks his thumb a bit. While Dave Cameron may not help my fantasy teams so often, his insights into baseball always keep me thinking. Dave Allen will continue to blow me away with his beautiful visualizations, and he should know that. Don’t let Jack Moore slip, his piece on the save was a great one, David Appleman deserves our gratitude daily, and RJ – well RJ will get his own resolution all for himself.

3) I will play every day for the entire season.
I won’t disappear on a flagging team and leave all my trade offers to wilt. I won’t forget to set my lineups, and I will constantly monitor the wire. I will analyze and re-analyze my teams strengths and weaknesses, and I will make offers and wheel and deal until the final day. I owe that much to the people in my league, and I also know one fact: even second-to-last is better than LAST.

4) I will not rosterbate.
I told you RJ Anderson (and to be fair, draysbay.com) would get his own resolution. Number 3) and 4) are the yin to each other’s yang – you want to be active, but you don’t want to be shuttling players in and out (unless you are in a streamer league). Fantasy (and, to be fair, real baseball) success is predicated on the delicate balance the over- and under-valued, so learning when to cut a player is the hardest lesson in the business. I will refine my approach and do my best to drop only those players that will not help my team the way I need them to.

5) I will not draft the hot young rookie just to show off.*
* This was stolen from a fine young Nano Di Fino, writing for the Wall Street Journal last year. I will let him speak for himself.

Let’s not get too carried away. That’s a fine group of five resolutions I can possibly keep. Check back in a month or so to see if I kept the pounds off.

Yesterday, we took a look at the starting pitchers with the biggest difference between their ERAs and their Expected Fielding Independent ERAs, attempting to find which hurlers performed above or below their peripheral stats in 2009.

Today, let’s turn out attention to the hitters. I compiled a list of the batters (minimum 350 plate appearances) with the biggest gap between their batting average on balls in play (BABIP) and their expected batting average on balls in play (xBABIP).

What’s xBABIP? Last winter, Chris Dutton and Peter Bendix sought to find which variables were most strongly correlated with a batter’s BABIP. Using data from the 2002-2008 seasons, Dutton and Bendix found that a hitter’s eye (BB/K ratio), line drive percentage, speed score and pitches per plate appearance had a positive relationship with BABIP (the better a batter rated in those areas, the higher his BABIP). Pitches per extra-base hit, fly ball/ground ball rate, spray (distribution of hits to the entire field) and contact rate had a negative relationship with BABIP. From this research, they created a model for predicting a batter’s BABIP.

Prior to Dutton and Bendix’s work, a lot of people used to calculate a hitter’s expected batting average on balls in play by taking line drive rate and adding .120. It made some sense: line drives have the highest batting average of any batted ball type by far, falling for a hit well over 70 percent of the time.

However, line drive rates don’t show a high correlation from year to year. That makes the “LD% plus .120” method unreliable. Dutton and Bendix’s model showed a 59 percent correlation between actual and expected BABIP. The LD +.120 method showed just an 18 percent correlation.

Some of the numbers used in Dutton and Bendix’s study are not readily available. However, Derek Carty of The Hardball Times and Slash12 of Beyond the Box Score have both come up with expected batting average on balls in play calculators based on the new findings.

For the purposes of this article, I used Slash12’s calculator. It uses the following variables:
– Line Drive Percentage (LD%)
– Ground Ball Percentage (GB%)
– Fly Ball Percentage (FB%)
– Infield/Fly Ball Percentage (IFFB%)
– Home Run/Fly Ball Percentage (HR/FB%)
– Infield Hit Percentage (IFH%)

While not identical to the variables used by Dutton and Bendix, these batted ball numbers do a good job of taking into account the aspects that lead to a higher or lower BABIP.

First, a disclaimer. Like the ERA-xFIP charts from yesterday, these lists of “lucky” and “unlucky” hitters are based on just one year of data. To get a better feel for how a hitter will perform in the future, it’s vital to take a good hard look at multiple seasons worth of performance. This is just a quick-and-dirty exercise.

To provide a little more context, I also included each batter’s actual BABIP since 2007, when possible. The three-year averages help us get a better picture of each hitter, and help us figure out which batters might be “tricking” the xBABIP calculator based on one year of abberrant batted ball numbers.

Take Jason Kendall, for instance. Kendall had a 12 percent infield hit rate in 2009, compared to a 7.6% career average. The calculator doesn’t know that Kendall’s ankle exploded like a cheap Acme bomb a decade ago, and that he’s a 35 year-old catcher who has a BABIP under .270 since 2007. It thinks he has speed due to the infield hit rate. That’s why you need to look at multi-year numbers.

Here are the hitters with actual batting average on balls in play figures exceeding the expected batting average on balls in play numbers. These are the guys who might see their batting averages fall in 2010:

Higher BABIP than xBABIP

And here are the batters with actual BABIPs falling well short of the XBABIP totals. These hitters could experience a bounce-back in 2010:

Lower BABIP than xBABIP

Recently, reader Pat left a comment on an article, asking:

“Can’t alot of pitchers HR/FB rates be expected to increase in the second half just due to the weather? … [T]herefore it would seem like a good strategy in a points league to stack pitching in the first half (and then look to make moves around the allstar break to acquire hitters).”

The reasoning here is that since bats tend to heat up as the weather gets warmer, hoard pitching early and then pick up hitters when the season is in full swing and 80 and 90 degree days are the norm.

Seems like a reasonable strategy, but would it work?

Since we would hoard pitchers early, let’s look at the top 20 starting pitchers, as determined by the final dollar values from the RotoTimes Player Rater, and check out their monthly HR and HR/FB data.

If HR prevention is the goal of this strategy, 16 of our 20 top pitchers had a HR/FB rate less than 11 percent in the final month of the season. Even August, the month last year where more HR by far were hit than any other, saw eight of our 20 pitchers have a HR/FB rate beneath 11 percent.

And this does not even take into account that the pitchers who were ranked top 20 at the beginning of the year often are nowhere to be found near the top of the leaderboard at the conclusion of the year. Using my friend Troy Patterson’s 2009 Starting Pitcher Rankings, here are the ones that did not make the top 20 at the end of the year:

Johan Santana (1), Brandon Webb (4), Jake Peavy (5), Cole Hamels (8), James Shields (10), Roy Oswalt (11), Ervin Santana (13), John Lackey (14), AJ Burnett (15), Edinson Volquez (16), Scott Kazmir (17), Carlos Zambrano (18), Chad Billingsley (19) and Daisuke Matsuzaka (20).

If you went into your draft convinced to load up on pitching, you could have wound up with a staff of Santana, Webb, Peavy, Hamels, Oswalt, Lackey and Burnett and at the All-Star break found other owners willing to offer you very little hitting in return.

Now, let us look at how pitchers as a whole fared in 2009. Here are the first and second half splits for all of the pitchers in MLB in 2009:

1st half – 4.32 ERA, 1.389 WHIP
2nd half – 4.33 ERA, 1.391 WHIP

It does not always work out this close, but this is yet another example of how easy this strategy could go awry.

Finally, you also have to consider how your league will handle trading with you when you have such an obvious need for hitters. Will your league-mates be willing to help you out and offer fair or even somewhat reasonable trades given how needy you are for offense? In friendly leagues that might not be a problem but it would likely be a bigger issue the more competitive your league is.

The best pitchers can dominate (or like Rodriguez in June – get lit up) at any point in the season. Stacking up on pitching only to turn around and deal it for hitting at the All-Star break seems like the fantasy baseball equivalent of market timing and not the best way to ensure long-term success.

Here is a team that I picked during mock draft season on March 2nd over at Mock Draft Central. I had the third pick overall in a 12-team mixed league 5×5 draft.

David Wright
Carl Crawford
CC Sabathia
Joe Mauer
Dan Haren
Josh Beckett
James Shields
Mariano Rivrea
Torii Hunter
Andre Ethier
Jose Valverde
Derek Lowe
Conor Jackson
David DeJesus
Adrian Beltre
Ted Lilly
Placido Polanco
Fred Lewis
Gil Meche
Edgar Renteria
Carlos Guillen
Brandon Inge
Jason Bartlett

At the time, the projected standings at MDC loved this team. It was judged the first-place team with 94 points, a healthy 21 points above the second-place squad. The category breakdowns were:

AVG – 12
HR – 1
RBI – 3
SB – 11
R – 11
W – 12
SV – 9
K – 12
WHIP – 11
ERA – 12

This would have been a pretty decent team in reality, too. Two top 10 hitters (Crawford and Mauer) supported by three top 20 pitchers (Haren, Rivera, Sabathia) and three great late picks (Lilly, Polanco, Bartlett).

It was far from a perfect draft, with fantasy killers Renteria, Lewis, Guillen and Meche. But I believe with proper oversight during the year, this team would likely be a money finisher and a first-place finish would not have been out of the question.

While I went into this mock draft trying to build a stronger pitching squad than I usually do, I did not consciously punt power. And what looked like a poor HR team on paper was no doubt worse in reality, with the down year in homers by Wright and injuries to Hunter, Beltre and even Jackson sapping what little power this team possessed.

To me, this squad begs the question: Can a successful fantasy team punt HR, and by extension RBIs?

On paper this team had 56 pitching points, which is pretty close to what this “strategy” would need to be successful. And even if you ace the pitching categories, it could still fall flat if the non-power categories did not also average double-digits in points.

It is certainly not a tack I would recommend, especially with the third overall pick. All of the top pitchers need to come through, and one has to draft at least one closer, and probably two, in the top half of the draft.

But, as a fantasy player who always favors power, this team was an eye-opener.

As keeper league decisions loom, many fantasy managers are looking at certain struggling young stars and wondering where all the buzz went. No young star has had a more tortured young history then B.J. Upton (né Melvin Emanuel Bossman Junior Upton). What can we expect from a young man that has shown flashes of great potential and long stretches of mediocrity? Does he, in the Ron Shandler vein, “own” the power and the speed because he’s shown both in the past? Or will he be more one-dimensional as his career evens out?

His power has oscillated incredibly. Here are his full year slugging percentages, starting with his first year in the minor leagues: .431 (’03 minors), .505 (’04 minors), .490 (’05 minors), .394 (06 minors), .291 (’06 majors), .508 (’07 majors), .401 (’08 majors), .364 (’09 majors). Quite the dilemma. It’s tempting to call 2007 his fluke year, but then there’s the question of the 2008 playoffs, and his 2004-2005 run in the minor leagues. He has shown good power multiple times in the past.

Examining 2007 further, we find that he had a HR/FB number that year (19.8%) that was way out of line with his career percentage (10.4%). This year, despite a career high in fly ball percentage (41.4%, well above his 34.7% career percentage), he’s sporting his second-lowest slugging percentage and has only muscled nine balls out of the yard despite being healthy for a good part of the year.

An obvious flaw in the older Upton’s game is his ability to hit line drives. His career line drive percentage is poor (17.5%), and this year’s number is third-worst among qualifiers this year. In 2007, he owned a career-high in that category (19.8%), and looking over his minor league career, we can see that the low line-drive rate is a definite part of his game.

What we are left with is a player that has some exciting tools (speed, and the ability to get on base (11.6% walk rate career)) and some real flaws (low line drive rate, high strikeout rate (28.2% career)). This gives us a player that despite a good BABIP (.348 career, most probably built on his speed) has a poor batting average (.266 career).

Looking for a comparable player is not easy, but one name comes to mind. Hunter Pence is a year older, and his power has not varied as greatly as Upton’s. Pence does also package a low line drive percentage (15.8% career) with good speed (5.2 speed score, .325 BABIP) and some power. On the other hand, his HR/FB stayed steady throughout his short career at a higher level than Upton’s has. What we can learn from Pence, possibly, is that Upton’s ceiling may not be defined by his best year. 2007 was a great year for both players, and both players will probably never again show the pristine batting averages they sported that year.

As for the Bossman’s power, we are left guessing. It’s never a good sign when a player has such extreme power spikes. Consider that he had more home runs in 2007 (24) than he’s had in the other 1,548 non-2007 plate appearances (23). Power is his shakiest tool, and depending on it returning in the future is not recommended.

A new innovation has hit the fantasy sports world. An article in the Wall Street Journal by Nando Di Fino details the debut this year of Fantasy Sports Insurance (FSI) which “offers the fantasy owner the ability to recoup league fees and all other related costs if one of their star players falls to an injury and misses the bulk of the season.”

FSI is starting off this year with football, but has plans to expand to other fantasy sports, including baseball.

The idea began with last year’s Week One injury to Tom Brady, one of the first players picked in fantasy football drafts in 2008. Brady was out for the remainder of the season and his injury sunk the hopes of many fantasy teams. For 2009, FSI (with the help of Lloyd’s of London) is offering insurance for the top 50 players in the NFL.

Owners have three options on how to insure their players. Two of these involve coverage on one person while a third choice offers protection if three players combine to miss 15 games.

The cost of the coverage depends mainly on entry fees and transaction fees for the individual league, although other expenses factor into the equation.

Most people who I have talked with about this idea have had the same reaction, which basically amounts to, “Wish I had thought of it first!”

It seems like an idea perfectly tailored for fantasy football, where season-ending injuries early in the season seem like an annual occurrence. But will it transfer to fantasy baseball? Plenty of season-ending injuries happen in baseball, but most of those happen later in the season.

Also, as fantasy players, do we really want another dilemma? It is hard enough with the fantasy team versus real team conflict that we all face. Our fantasy team pitcher is going up against our favorite team – which side are we on?

If the fantasy insurance idea takes off, we will be faced with the possibility of rooting for an injured player to not make it back. Instead of checking RotoTimes for news of rehab assignments, we will instead be hoping for visits to see Dr. James Andrews, which will enable us to cash an insurance check and salvage our entrance fee.

Do you think the FSI idea is a good one or bad one? Do you see it succeeding in fantasy baseball? Would you consider purchasing it for any particular player? Please weigh in with your thoughts in the comments section.

Sometimes you just can’t find a quip at the ready. You’re watching the all-star festivities, thinking about all the wonders of baseball and perusing the newest about Pitch F/X, Hit F/X, and now even Game F/X, and you think something will come. But there you are, and all you have is….

Kendry Morales – Projection systems often have trouble with breakouts, so maybe it’s not surprising that ZiPS projects Morales to basically halve his home run production from here on out, finishing with 23 home runs instead of the 26 or 27 he might otherwise be on pace for.

One can’t really blame the system for being pessimistic, however. He had only 19 home runs in 402 at-bats in the major and minor leagues combined last year, and only nine home runs in 401 total minor league at bats the year before. Why would this player approach 30 home runs?

Perhaps the pessimism also stems from Morales’ consistently low line drive percentages. When a player seems to lack home run power, the pundits fall back on the idea that he is a ‘line drive hitter’ or can ‘drive it in the gaps.’ Instead, it seems that Morales is the type of hitter that avoids the strikeout (16.9% career) in favor of putting the ball in play, often on the ground (44.9% ground ball rate). It certainly isn’t his line drive percentage (15.3% career, 17.5% this year).

One thing should be said: with a fly-ball rate over 40%, he could up the power. Lance Berkman and Adrian Gonzalez also own similar fly ball rates and have a little power. Morales’ HR/FB rate has increased every year and he may some day hit 30 home runs if only because he’s listed at 26 years old and has more baseball to play. He has also repeated AAA three times while waiting for his chance – he probably couldn’t be better prepared for this, and his peak is probably still on the way.

The year-27 peak theory has been disproved for the most part. An oft-referenced study by Schulz et al, done in 1994 by surveying the statistics of over 388 players that were active in 1965, found that major league baseball players peak between 25 and 28 years old. The reason for the range is that their peak is usually determined by their age when they broke into the majors. It follows that you would peak later if you debuted later. But the law of the bell curve also applies, and the later you join the league, the earlier you leave the league for the most part.

If this Cuban first baseman is actually 26 years old, he’s joining the majors early enough to have better years in front of him. For those in keeper leagues, this first half at least shows that he belongs and will play long enough to probably have a better year in sometime soon in his career.

However, if he’s closer to 30 and the owner of a false birth certificate like many other Cuban players, this is most likely his peak and he probably won’t be a starter in the majors for very long. That much we do know about the bell curves of major league players as it relates to their ages and their performances.

Guys,
Haven’t seen a mailbag since the 14th and wanted to get your thoughts on this.

Thanks, Big Oil

Thanks for the question, and since readership has been high for these, we will continue to do them.

My initial response is that I don’t like the deal. If you only keep four, you always want to consolidate your keeper talent. That much is probably not news to you, but Grady Sizemore blend of speed and power is matched by only a handful of players. Owning him puts you ahead of the game because you don’t need to pick a speed-only guy high in the draft – if at all.

Upon a closer review, I can see the enticement. Your current third basemen are not up to snuff in a mixed league, and though you are competing now, you may fall behind without Aramis Ramirez and his considerable production at the hot corner. I don’t fault you for looking for a better option at third base, not at all.

However, I still go with ‘no,’ even after more reflection. I don’t want you to keep a second 1B (Adrian Gonzalez is good, but first base is a deep position), and Jay Bruce and Justin Upton are exciting players that probably won’t steal like Sizemore. Upton is close, as he is on pace for over 15 stolen bases this year and has always shown good speed in the minors.

But speed is not his game like Sizemore’s. Consider that Sizemore stole 96 bases in the minors (in 529 games) while Upton totaled 36 in 231 games. Er, that was a suprising statistic. Guess it makes sense that Upton’s four-component speed score of 6.7 this year would better Sizemore’s since 2006.

Hmmm. On second thought, fly that flag. Go for the win and do the trade. Upton looks like a good consolation prize right now, and at 21 is coming into his own. You can deal your surplus 3B at the end of the year if you want to consolidate keepers.

In a 12 team mixed league, I have a staff of Sabathia, Chamberlain, Greinke, Kershaw, Porcello, Maholm, and Sonnanstine. I am going with 2 closers and am using Joba’s RP status to plug in an extra starter. I also had Kawakami on my bench, but dumped him and someone else scooped him up. I am growing impatient with Sonny and am wondering if I should cut bait and pick up someone else. I am near the top of ERA, WHIP, Wins, but could use more Ks and could go back to 3 true RPs. Any thoughts?

Thanks! K.G.

Andy Sonnanstine shouldn’t be owned in most formats. Seriously, I took a longer look at his stats than I deemed necessary, and I still didn’t see anything I liked.

His mediocre stuff just holds him back. While he’s still not walking too many to be productive (2.92 per nine), he’s still not striking out enough to really matter (5.29 K/9). How is he going to strike people out with an 87 MPH fastball, an 87 MPH cutter, a 77 MPH slider, and a 74 MPH curveball? That’s just too many pitches at the same speed with similar movement.

Look at this chart for his vertical movement. You can see why he’s suddenly using his cutter more, because it’s the only one that moves differently on the vertical plane. Consider that his cutter used to move less, and the possibility of a regression to an already-unattractive mean is not a happy thought.

Sonnanstine is a decent number four or five in real life baseball, just on the basis of his stinginess with the walks. That shouldn’t be too attractive in fantasy baseball. Go find a reliever that might get you some saves. (Oh and trade Paul Maholm high, because he’s got too much in common with Sonnanstine to get comfortable with him.)

Our email address for this feature is rotographs+mailbag@fangraphs.com, so send in your questions! Remember to try to give us all relevant information in the fewest words possible, and you’ll be all set.

Stock Up

Jorge de la Rosa, Rockies

de la Rosa sure has played roster hot-potato for a lefty cooking in the low-90’s, having been a part of four trades while seeing time in the Arizona, Boston, Milwaukee, Kansas City and Colorado systems. The 28 year-old, as covered in great detail by Eno Sarris, has kicked off the 2009 season with a 2.99 FIP, 9.49 K/9 and 3.38 BB/9 in 42.2 innings. de la Rosa has been fortunate in the home run department (0.42 HR/9, 4.9 HR/FB%), but his XFIP (based on K’s, BB’s and a normalized HR rate) still checks in at a tidy 3.70. If de la Rosa can keep the walks at a moderate rate, he could be an asset in most any league.

Joe Mauer, Twins

I know- Mauer has long been a fantasy darling, as a line-drive hitting backstop with excellent control of the zone. But the 26 year-old’s power outburst to begin the ’09 season bears mentioning: he’s already popped 6 out of the park in 73 plate appearances (this after hitting a combined 16 dingers in over 1,100 PA’s during the 2007 and 2008 seasons). Don’t expect him to suddenly go all Mike Piazza on the league, but Mauer would only add to his immense value if he could loft 20 big flys in addition to his high-contact, patient act at the dish.

Ubaldo Jimenez, Rockies

Ubaldo has done a better job of limiting the base on balls in recent starts, with 22 K’s, 6 walks and 6 runs allowed in 27 frames during the month of May. Like de la Rosa, Jimenez has had some good luck on flyballs (0.20 HR/9, 2.4 HR/FB%), but his XFIP is a decent 4.43 despite a disastrous April (16 runs, 19/17 K/BB in 19 IP). The combination of whiffs (8.02 K/9) and worm-burners (50 GB%) makes the 25 year-old Dominican Republic native an intriguing trade target.

Jayson Werth, Phillies

The whole “is player X overrated/underrated” debate is obviously subjective, but Werth has to place among the more underappreciated talents in the game. How many people realize just how valuable this rangy, 6-2, 225 pounder has been for the Phillies since 2007? A 3.4 Win player in partial playing time in ’07, Werth posted a 5.3 WAR season for the Phillies in 2008 (tied with Jimmy Rollins for 2nd in a star-studded lineup), and he’s produced 1.4 wins already in 2009. With a .415 wOBA (.294/.396/.540) and 8 steals in 9 attempts, Werth is producing in every facet of the game. He’s even making a little more contact (23.8 K%, 29.9 career average), while raking against righties (.849 OPS) in addition to his usual lefty lashing (1.142 OPS).

Rick Porcello, Tigers

Porcello has gone from Seton Hall Prep to viable major league starter in less than two seasons, as the 20 year-old sinkerballer has allowed 2 runs in 18 innings during the month of May. Porcello isn’t blowing batters away (5.67 K/9), but he’s stingy with the free passes (2.95 BB/9) and generates grounders (53.6 GB%) with the sinker, a mid-70’s curve and a low-80’s changeup. Porcello is doing a better job of throwing his three quality offerings (particularly his curveball) from the same arm-slot. Check out his release point chart against the Yankees, in a 3.2 inning, 6 run drubbing on April 29th…

…and his release point in a 6-inning, 1 run gem against the A’s on May 16th…

Stock Down

Alexei Ramirez, White Sox

There has been a general malaise over the South Side bats in 2009 (the Pale Hose rank 26th in wOBA), and Ramirez is one of the main culprits. Ramirez has been slightly more “patient” in ’09 ( we’re speaking in incredibly relative terms here: 5.6 BB%, 37.2 Outside Swing Percentage in 2009 compared to 3.6 BB% and a 42.7 O-Swing% in ’08), but the “Cuban Missile” has failed to launch, with a sickly .243 wOBA. His BABIP sits at a very low .238, so some positive regression should be expected. Still, his .051 ISO is downright Bloomquistian. This is what you sign up for if you gamble on a batting average-dependent player: when those hits don’t fall in, that player’s value craters.

Todd Wellemeyer, Cardinals

Just when it looked like Wellemeyer might establish himself as a competent mid-rotation cog (4.51 FIP in 2008), he has gone and reminded everyone why he’s a former Cub, Marlin and Royal. His K rate has dipped from 6.29 per nine in ’08 to 5.28 in ’09, with his BB/9 inflating from 2.91 to 4.11. Wellemeyer’s go-to secondary offering last year was a mid-80’s slider (thrown 23.6% of the time), but his slider usage is down this season (12.9%), as is its velocity (83.1 MPH). In place of the hard breaker, the 30 year-old has mixed in a few high-80’s cutters and some high-70’s curves. The kitchen sink approach does not appear to be working.

Josh Fields, White Sox

The former first-rounder out of Oklahoma State has been a wreck at the plate this season, whiffing 32.8 percent of the time while making Scott Podsednik look like a power hitter (.096 ISO). That’s quite the fall for a guy who authored a .236 ISO during the 2007 season. At 26 years old and coming off a mundane season spent at AAA Charlotte in 2008 (.347 wOBA, .772 OPS), Fields isn’t such a highly-regarded youngster than he can continue to post oh-fer’s and stay in the lineup. He’s not on the Drew Henson path of doom quite yet, but he might want to take a few snaps in between BP sessions.

Armando Galarraga, Tigers

As a free-talent pickup from Texas, Galarraga was a pleasant surprise for the Tigers in 2008 while many other Detroit hurlers crashed and burned. A good deal of regression should have been expected this season (Galarraga’s 3.73 ERA far surpassed his 4.88 FIP), but we weren’t quite anticipating this kind of spontaneous combustion. While Verlander, Jackson and Porcello deal, 2008’s nominal ace has a 5.62 FIP and a walk rate closing in on five batters per nine innings. His last outing on May 17th was a 0.2 inning, 5-run disaster against the light-hitting A’s.

Kevin Kouzmanoff, Padres

The Crushin’ Russian has not lived up to his nickname so far in 2009. Kouzmanoff’s Isolated Power figure comes in at just .101, continuing a three-year downward trend: his ISO was .182 in 2007 (his first full season in the big leagues) and .173 in 2008. The 28 year-old’s wOBA’s have dipped from .339 in ’07, .316 in ’08 and just .284 in 2009. The Padres are giving some thought to putting Chase Headley back at the hot corner, to make room for mammoth 6-6, 275 pound prospect Kyle Blanks in left field (it’s a stretch, but he’s more athletic than you might think). Kouzmanoff will need to show something in the coming weeks if he hopes to avoid being usurped.

A question in the mailbag from L. S. this week ended simply: Is Jorge De La Rosa for real?

His 2.99 FIP seems to suggest that his good start is for real, but ZiPS has him putting up a 4.71 ERA for the rest of the season. Perhaps this is a nod to his 5.32 career ERA. Many projection systems have trouble with breakout seasons, however, and there’s ample evidence that we are actually witnessing just such a step forward from a talented pitcher that could be peaking in his 27th year on the planet.

For one, the ‘luck’ numbers do not point definitively towards an unsustainable start to the year. His 69.1% strand rate is close to the league average as well as his own average (67.7%). His BABIP is .298, and while that is lower than his career .325 number, it doesn’t scream luck, especially given the small sample size.

Sure, this sample size also could be skewing his strikeout and walk rates, but for now they are both (9.49 K/9; 3.38 BB/9) right near the rates he put up in 130 innings of 4.06 FIP baseball last year (8.86 K/9, 4.29 BB/9). If the trend holds steady, the rates also show a natural progression that is encouraging. His strikeout rate has improved for three straight years, and his walk rate is at its lowest in his career. That’s good work if it proves to be true.

The only ‘luck’ worries come from his fly ball numbers. He’s sporting a 26.8% infield fly rate, and as those balls turn into long fly balls, his 4.9% HR/FB number should rise up to his 10.3% rate. The surprising thing is that with such a great HR/9 number (0.42), De La Rosa can actually continue to be productive – even if he doubles his home runs per nine as his career number suggest he will.

Why all the optimism? What’s changed? In short, this young Rockies pitcher has changed his entire approach to pitching over the past years.

Take a look at his pitch selection, and the difference between now and his first extended burn in 2007 is stark. When he came into the league, De La Rosa was throwing his 92-93 MPH fastball 62.3% of the time, and his 83 MPH slider 1.7% of the time. This year, he’s throwing those two pitches 56.1% and 23.3% of the time, respectively. He’s also cut his use of his 75 MPH curveball in half, from 13.1% to 6.5% this year.

A peek at his most recent pitch F/X game graph gives us some insight into this changed usage pattern. Take a look at his release points.

Despite a consistent release point for most of his pitches, De La Rosa lets his curve ball go at a distinctly higher point than his other pitches. This could lead to batters identifying the pitch early and laying off.

Now take a look at the movement of his pitches.

Given that the curve ball has the most horizontal and vertical movement of any of his pitches, it also follows that the curve ends up being called a ball many times, especially if batters are noticing the different release point and watching it into the catcher’s glove. It also makes sense that his most effective three pitches might be the three that release at the same spot and break as differently as his fastball, changeup and slider do.

Could it be that his reduced walk rate can be attributed to his reduced use of the curveball? Correlation is of course not causation, so it’s hard to say without knowing the strike percentage of each of his pitches. But De La Rosa is a changed pitcher – that much seems clear. And that counts as a good thing.