Stock Up

Shin-Soo Choo, Indians

Pilfered from the Mariners in the summer of 2006 for the low, low price of Ben Broussard (Asdrubal Cabrera for Eduardo Perez, too? You’re the best, Mr. Bavasi!), Choo is quietly raking in Cleveland. The 26 year-old South Korean hit a searing .309/.397/.549 (.402 wOBA) in 2008, and he has followed that up with a .298/.410/.468 line (.398 wOBA) in 2009. Mr. Choo is drawing walks at a 15.3% clip, the 17th-highest rate among qualified batters. He might not show a whole lot of sock versus southpaws (career .387 SLG% vs. LHP), but Choo crushes righties (.515).

Jon Lester, Red Sox

Lester’s early season “struggles” appeared to be more the product of poor luck on balls in play and a sky-high HR/FB rate, and sure enough, the 25 year-old lefty has been dealing lately. Lester punched out 12 batters versus the Blue Jays on May 31st, and followed that up with 11 whiffs against the Rangers on June 6th. His K rate sits at a whopping 10.29 per nine innings, 5th among starting pitchers. Jon’s 89 MPH cutter has been devastating, with a +2.22 run value per 100 pitches.

Edwin Jackson, Tigers

Jackson’s improvement from strong-armed enigma to polished pitcher has been stunning. His K/BB ratio, just 1.4 last season, is up to 3.26. His FIP (3.10) is boosted by a low HR rate (0.54 per nine innings), but his Expected Fielding Independent ERA (based on K’s, BB’s, and a normalized HR/FB rate) is a still-solid 4.35. Jackson has been getting it done with a 94 MPH heater (+1.42 runs per 100 pitches), an 86 MPH slider (+1.33) and the rare 85.5 MPH changeup (+0.78).

Andy LaRoche, Pirates

All of the sudden, Andy looks an awful lot like the highly-touted youngster the Pirates thought they were receiving last summer. His introduction to the ‘Burgh was turbulent, but the former Dodgers prospect is batting .301/.372/.420, with a .356 wOBA. LaRoche will likely never be a huge over-the-fence threat, but his combination of plate discipline and doubles power could prove mighty valuable to the Bucs.

Gavin Floyd, White Sox

Floyd has been on a roll, with 31 K’s and 7 runs allowed in his last 29.2 innings. While Gavin’s ERA far surpassed his peripherals in 2008, it’s been the opposite story in 2009. Floyd’s ERA sits at an abominable 5.35, but his FIP is pretty good at 3.91. The 26 year-old righty has increased his strikeout rate from 6.32 to 8.03, though he hasn’t hit his spots as well (3.77 BB/9 in 2009, 3.05 in 2008).

Stock Down

Wandy Rodriguez, Astros

Wandy has been bushwhacked over his past three starts, coughing up 18 runs in 13.2 frames. After giving up just one round-tripper during his first 11 starts, Rodriguez was taken deep on four occasions against the Rockies on June 4th. His numbers for the year are still solid (3.15 FIP, 8.55 K/9), but his vaunted curveball was absolutely crushed against Colorado (-3.1 runs for the evening).

CC Sabathia, Yankees

A less-than-optimal CC is still better than 95% of the pitchers in the majors, but New York’s new ace hasn’t quite been himself in 2009. CC’s K rate checks in at just 6.38 per nine innings, down considerably from his 8.93 mark in 2008 and his 7.5 career average. Opposing batters aren’t fishing at Sabathia’s sliders and changeups off the plate, with a 26.1 Outside-Swing% that’s nearly 6 percent lower than in 2008. Again, he’s been pretty darned good (3.76 FIP), and if he were just about any hurler, we’d all be saying he was turning in a nice season. It’s just that we have come to expect greatness from Sabathia.

Corey Hart, Brewers

Hart’s three-year slide continues. After posting a .380 wOBA in 2007, the lanky, tattooed right fielder posted a .327 mark in 2008 and just .309 this season. Over that same time period, Hart’s ISO has plummeted from .244 in ’07 to .191 in 2008 and just .150 in 2009. Hart isn’t chasing as many pitches off the plate this season (24.8 O-Swing%, compared to 31.7% last year), but he’s also whiffing at a career-high 27.2% clip with a career-worst contact rate (71.5%; 80.6% MLB average).

Manny Parra, Brewers

Coming off of a 2008 season in which he struck out 7.86 batters per nine innings with a 4.16 FIP, Parra looked like an intriguing, covert pitcher to target. Unfortunately, his already-scattershot control has taken another step backward: after issuing 4.07 BB/9 in ’08, the 26 year-old port-sider has walked 5.43 per nine innings in 2009. Only Fausto Carmona (currently plying his trade in Rookie Ball) has a higher rate of free passes among starters.

Bengie Molina, Giants

What happens when a guy who never walks doesn’t have those base hits fall in? Just ask the eldest Molina brother. Bengie enjoyed a piping hot April (.913 OPS and a .328 BABIP), but he fell apart in May (.559 OPS, .189 BABIP) and is off the a rough start in June (.606 OPS). Molina makes plenty of contact and he has ample pop for a backstop, but batting average-dependent players can go through stretches like this. When the hits aren’t falling, there’s nothing to fall back on.

Stock Up

Justin Upton, Diamondbacks

21 year-olds aren’t supposed to go all Barry Bonds on the league, but Upton now holds a scalding .329/.404/.606 line with a .434 wOBA that places ninth among major league hitters. The .329 average likely won’t persist- Upton is still whiffing frequently (27.6% of his AB’s) and his BABIP sits at .412- but I’m nitpicking. He’s working the count well (11 BB%) and beating the bejesus out of the baseball (.276 Isolated Power). Upton is dominating at the highest level, yet he’s younger than some guys who will go in the first round of this month’s amateur draft. Suffice it to say, he’s among some exclusive, rarified company.

Nelson Cruz, Rangers

Last fall, I examined Cruz’s crushing of PCL pitching and its ramifications for his career prospects. Regarding his Jake Fox-like reign of terror in the high minors and his equally impressive work in a small sample for Texas last summer, I said: “Cruz has his uses on a major league roster as a power bat, but keep in mind that he’s a 28 year-old minor league slugger, not a hot young prospect. Don’t be fooled by that small sample size.”

So far, I can file that one in the “D’oh!” department. Formerly of the A’s and Brewers organizations, Cruz has translated his “Hulk Smash” act to the majors, with a .410 wOBA. His control of the strike zone isn’t impeccable, but there’s nothing wrong with drawing a free pass 9.6% of the time with a 24% strikeout rate. His ISO is nearing .300, to boot (.296). Cruz has seen fastballs just 53 percent of the time (one of the lowest rates in the bigs), but evidently he’s doing just fine against breaking stuff, thank you very much.

Even taking the cozy environs of Arlington into account, Cruz has been a stud: with 11.9 Batting Runs (park-adjusted), he ranks 13th among outfielders. Throw in 9 steals in 10 tries, and you have a guy who’s looking anything but a minor league mirage.

Carl Pavano, Indians

Pavano has been the butt of countless jokes for his fruitless Yankee tenure and propensity to turn his training room visits into an episode of House, but let’s give the man some credit. As Dave Cameron has pointed out, Pavano’s FIP (3.78) is far better than his 5.29 ERA. Carl is punching out 7.14 batters per nine innings, his highest rate since 2001 with the Expos, and he holds a 29.5 Outside-Swing% (by far his highest since 2002, and five percent above the league average).

Randy Wolf, Dodgers

The Wolf-Man inked a 1-year, $5 million deal with L.A. this winter, with performance incentives based on innings pitched. With 1.2 WAR, Wolf has already provided $5.3M in value for the Dodgers. His 2.85 K/BB ratio (7.36 K/9, 2.58 BB/9) is his highest since 2001 with the Phillies. The 2.84 ERA is something of a misnomer- his FIP is 3.88- but Wolf has still been one of the best free agent signings of the off-season.

Luke Scott, Orioles

Having recovered from a bum shoulder that put him on the DL, Scott cracked 6 homers in a four-game span from May 27th to the 30th. Posting a 1.479 OPS during an abbreviated month of May, Scott now holds a blistering .445 wOBA for the season, with 11 taters in 133 PA. The O’s are an awfully interesting club, what with their collection of blue-chip talent, but contention certainly isn’t in the cards in ’09. The soon-to-be 31 year-old Scott could do wonders for an Atlanta outfield that holds a collective .291 wOBA (dead-last in the majors).

Stock Down

Shairon Martis, Nationals

Martis racked up five early wins despite mediocre peripherals, but things have quickly gone south for the former Dutch ace. Martis isn’t fooling much of anyone (4.06 K/9, 6th-lowest among qualified starters) and isn’t painting the corners (3.59 BB/9). The result is a 5.14 FIP. The 22 year-old is one of many Nats starters who put the ball in play often, a problem given Washington’s wretched fielding. Nationals starters rank 26th in K/9, behind a defensive unit that ranks last the in the majors in UZR/150.

Ervin Santana, Angels

No sweeping conclusions can be derived from 4 starts and 18 innings of pitching, but Santana’s return from an elbow ailment has been an unhappy one. After two passable starts against the Red Sox and Mariners, Santana was taken to the woodshed by the light-hitting White Sox (1 IP, 7 R on the 25th), and his second start against the M’s last night was also grim (5.1 IP, 8 R).

The 2009 version of Santana has not yet resembled the 2008 model that came equipped with blazing 94.4 MPH heat and a sinister 83 MPH slider. So far, his average fastball velocity sits at 90.7 MPH, with an 81 MPH breaker. Opposing batters made contact against Santana’s stuff just 77.1% of the time in ’08, but have put the bat on the ball 86.4% in ’09 (80.7% MLB average). It wouldn’t be wise to do anything rash like dropping him or trading him for 50 cents on the dollar, but Santana should probably be benched until he works through these kinks.

Willy Taveras, Reds

Taveras was surprisingly competent during the month of April, playing the leadoff-man’s game with aplomb (12.3 BB%, 12.3 K%), but the former Astro and Rockie reverted to his batting average-dependent ways in May (5.5 BB%, 16.7 K%). The result was a hollow .269/.307/.333 line after April’s .262/.351/.228 showing.

Taveras has just about the least amount of extra-base thump in the majors and he generally doesn’t work the count, so he’s an offensive liability when those singles aren’t finding holes. Unfortunately, the 27 year-old has been hitting fewer grounders as the years have gone by: 55.6% in 2006, 51.5% in ’07 and ’08, and 46.3% this season. Nothing good comes from a Taveras flyball, which makes his 35.3% flyball rate (28.6% career average) troubling. Yes, he swipes a lot of bags, but those employing Taveras as an everyday outfielder in fantasy circles lose out on production in other categories.

James Loney, Dodgers

The 25 year-old lefty continues to control the strike zone (9.5 BB%, 10.4 K%), but he’s been showing less power than Juan Castro, for goodness sakes. Loney’s ISO sits at a sickly .085, this after a disappointing 2008 showing (.145 ISO) that would look downright Herculean compared to his current mark. Loney is hitting plenty of line drives (23.5%), but he’s not getting terribly unlucky on balls put in play (.315 BABIP).

In 2009, the average first baseman is slugging .492 with a .364 OBP; Loney holds a .373 SLG% with a .351 OBP. The 6-3, 220 pounder is still relatively young, but singles hitters just aren’t that valuable at a position where power tends to rule the day.

Andy Pettitte, Yankees

Pettitte has long been an underappreciated piece of New York’s tremendous run of success, and he posted a fine 3.71 FIP in 2008. However, the 2009 version hasn’t been as productive. Yes, his ERA (4.10 in ’09) is lower than last year (4.54) and his record is better, but that’s more the product of performance on balls put in play. Pettitte had a .339 BABIP last season, compared to .299 this season. Lead-footed in the field last season (-5.4 team UZR/150, 25th in the majors), the Bombers are slightly in the black this year (+0.4 UZR/150, 14th).

In terms of things that Pettitte has more direct control over, he’s taken a step backward in 2009. His K rate, nearly seven last season, has fallen to just 4.81 (making New York’s defensive improvement all the more important for Pettitte). He has also issued 3.25 walks per nine innings, his highest mark since 2004. The result is a middling 4.86 FIP, the highest mark of his distinguished career.

Stock Up

Jordan Zimmerman, Nationals

A Tale of Two Rookies: Shairon Martis might have the shiny 5-0 record and a superficially better ERA (4.86), but Zimmermann (5.71 ERA) holds the FIP advantage, 4.24 to Martis’ 4.71. Zimmermann has a strong 3.25 strikeout-to-walk ratio (8.56 K/9 and 2.63 BB/9), but a fluky .343 BABIP has bogged down his numbers. The 22 year-old has a deep four-pitch mix and keeps the ball in the zone (54.8% of his pitches have crossed home plate, compared to the 48.9% MLB average). He’s also getting ahead of hitters 0-1 or inducing contact early in the at-bat, with a First-Pitch Strike percentage of 66.5 (57.7% MLB average).

Kevin Slowey, Twins

As an extreme flyball pitcher (his career GB% is 33.2), Slowey will give up some meatballs that end up in the stands (1.3 HR/9 in 2009, 1.47 HR/9 career). However, his control and command are absolutely disgusting. Slowey’s walk rate for the season sits at 0.65, less than half of last year’s already pinpoint 1.35 BB/9. The 25 year-old is basically in a category of his own in terms of painting the corners: Joel Pinerio ranks 2nd in BB/9 at 1.03. Slowey has a 9.75 K/BB ratio; Roy Halladay is second at 7.0. Slowey also leads all starters in placing his pitches within the zone, at 59.2 percent. His FIP is down to 3.94 for the season, and batters have a better chance of winning the lottery and subsequently being struck by lightning than drawing a walk against him.

Elvis Andrus, Rangers

Per Wins Above Replacement (WAR), Andrus has been the sixth-most productive shortstop in the majors in 2009, quite the accomplishment for a 20 year-old who spent last season in Double-A. Andrus has been a vacuum at short at 14.8 UZR/150, but he has surprisingly held his own at the dish as well. His wOBA sits at .355, with a .291/.333/.457 line. Andrus’ .165 ISO is leaps and bounds above anything he did at the minor league level. ZiPS suggests that we shouldn’t go hog-wild just yet: Andrus is projected to hit .250/.303/.337 from here on out, with a .291 wOBA. Still, the Rangers have to be highly encouraged.

Rich Hill, Orioles

Baby steps: Coming off a disastrous 2008 campaign in which he walked the yard and lost all semblance of fastball control, Hill has 12 punchouts in 11.1 frames. He’s still fighting himself, however, with 6 free passes. The 29 year-old’s signature low-70’s curve has shown plenty of bite (with 8.2 inches of “dropping” action, the hook is falling nearly twice as much as the average lefty curve, and more than Hill’s 7.1 career average when Pitch F/X is watching).

Hill continues to throw his curve and fastball from two different arm slots, though I won’t pretend to know whether or not the batter could pick up on such a nuance. The difference doesn’t appear to be extreme:

See that one red dot? Hill has dropped down sidearm to throw a slider once in each of his first two starts.

Mark Reynolds, Diamondbacks

The D-Backs rank just 24th in the majors in wOBA, but don’t blame Reynolds. He holds a .398 wOBA, with 12 home runs and a .284 ISO. He’s still coming up empty as often as any one (36.1 K%), but Reynolds is working the count well (12.4 BB%) while reducing his Outside Swing% for the third consecutive year (from 26.1% in 2007 to 20.6% this season).

Stock Down

Rich Harden, Cubs

The A’s received plenty of flak last summer for parting with Harden, whose transient brilliance can intoxicate GM’s and fantasy owners alike. The reason Oakland received only a middling package of prospects is the same reason why Harden will always be a second or third-tier fantasy starter: he’s never upright for more than a few months at a time. Whiffing nearly 11 batters per nine innings, Harden hits the DL with a back strain.

A.J. Burnett, Yankees

Burnett’s five-year pact with the Bombers was considered a significant risk from a health standpoint, but he was expected to perform quite well when available. So far, that hasn’t been the case: fresh off a 3.45 FIP with the Blue Jays, Burnett has posted a 5.27 FIP in 58 innings. Some of that is poor luck on flyballs- his HR/FB% is somewhat high at 14.3 percent. Still, his strikeout rate is down (7.76 K/9 in 2009, 9.39 in 2008), he’s walking too many batters (4.19 BB/9), and he’s surrendering far more flyballs this season. His 41.7 GB% is significantly lower than his 48.5% mark in 2008, which in turn was quite a bit lower than his 54.8% figure in 2007. Considering that seemingly innocuous flyballs are whizzing out of new Yankee Stadium at a dizzying pace (1.62 HR park factor), that’s not a positive trend.

Emmanuel Burriss, Giants

Granted, this Kent State product was never expected to knock balls into the gap with regularity, but this is getting a little ridiculous. Burriss has three extra-base knocks on the season, good for a .021 ISO. His wOBA sits at .284. Coupled with a so-so 11-for-15 in the SB department and a false start with the leather (-7.6 UZR/150), Burriss has been below replacement-level thus far. There are rumblings that Burriss may begin losing playing time to Kevin Frandsen.

Chris Davis, Rangers

Punching out regularly certainly doesn’t preclude a hitter from being highly productive, but Davis has resembled a Dave Kingman/Rob Deer love child in 2009. He has whiffed an astounding 43.5% of the time, lapping the competition: Carlos Pena ranks a distant second, at 36.3%. The 23 year-old is crushing what he can touch, with 10 homers and a .231 ISO. However, he’s swinging at most everything (35.2 Outside Swing%) while making the least amount of contact of any batter in the majors, at 58 percent. The result is an ugly .264 OBP and a .300 wOBA.

Francisco Liriano, Twins

Liriano had a highly promising return to the Twinkies last year (3.87 FIP, 7.93 K/9), but the 25 year-old southpaw has been torched for a 5.28 FIP in 2009. Placing a below-average 45.9% of his pitches within the strike zone, Liriano has issued 4.44 BB/9. Not surprisingly, his release point has been all over the place. For example, here’s his last start against the White Sox, on May 20th: