This week’s edition covers one top prospect making his MLB debut and a pair of recalls who didn’t fare so well earlier this season. Plus? The usual batch of players who only apply to really deep leagues. In fantasy, no transaction is too small.
This column has a rather wide range when it comes to fantasy impact. It’s a nature-of-the-beast thing, trying to predict when minor leaguers are going to get their shot. And so there have been players highlighted in this space who have soon thereafter become relevant (Chris Davis) or even useful (Jerry Sands) to fantasy owners. And there have also been those mentioned — many more, in fact — who remain in Triple-A (Charlie Blackmon) or downright useless (Mark Rogers). This time, however, expect a 2-for-2 performance. At least in terms of how soon this pair of prospects will be reaching the majors.
As May comes to an end, so mitigates some of the financial incentive for teams to keep their prospects in the minor leagues (i.e. Super Two status), which means youngins should start popping up all over big-league rosters once the calendar hits June. Get ready to get busy, my little waiver wire watchers.
After focusing on pitchers for the past couple Mining the Minors Fridays, let’s switch gears and check out two hitters who could soon be making their way to a major-league ballpark near you.
Last Thursday, there was a lot to get to, what with plenty of minor-league players — and even some really big-name prospects — making their MLB debuts. Just because there may not be an Eric Hosmer or Julio Teheran to introduce to owners this time, does that mean recent recalls should be altogether ignored? Disregard at your own risk, fellow fantasy fiends.
After stumbling last year following his 2009 breakout season, Jason Kubel is quietly having a really strong start to 2011 — bet you didn’t realize he’s currently fifth in batting in the AL — so why, exactly, is he a potential a sell high candidate?
Today, we’ll focus on one National League outfielder instead of the entire class. We know from his twitter feed that 24-year-old Logan Morrison is an excellent young man worth paying attention to, but it’s hard to know exactly how excellent he is with respect to his fantasy value without unpacking his power potential.
Right now, Mr. Morrison has a .313 ISO which would be fourth in baseball if he had played enough to qualify for the batting title. We can’t hold his foot injury against him, but we do know that it means that he’s had fewer PAs than his competitors and his sample is even smaller than average. For a guy that showed a .164 ISO last year, and a .174 ISO in his minor league career, we can remain skeptical that his power will last, and the size of the sample doesn’t help matters.
We do know that isolated power doesn’t even really stabilize over a season, so maybe we don’t really know what his major league power looks like on a reliable level. He’s only played for 366 major league plate appearances. Players don’t usually put up power numbers that trump their minor league work, but certainly young men put on weight and become more powerful as they age. Could Morrison out-do his rest-of-season projections that have him dropping back down to a .177 ISO? That projection would mean only ten more home runs the rest of the season even though he’s managed five in his first 79 plate appearances.
One piece of good news is that Morrison has changed his batted ball profile slightly. After putting up groundball rates over 50% regularly in the minor leagues, Morrison is showing what would be a full-season low in that category right now (40%). Correspondingly, he’s hitting more fly balls (43.6%) than groundballs for the first time in his life. If these changes hold, he could very easily outperform his previous power work.
How far are we from being able to reliable predict that these changes in his batted ball profile will hold? Some might say never because of stringer bias, but Pizza Cutter tells us the ground-ball rate numbers that we have stabilize around 40 PA. So Morrison has shown us that he’s willing to hit the ball on the ground a little more in the major leagues. According to his work, we’ll have to wait another 100 PAs to believe the fly ball rates, but we do know that he’s hitting fewer ground balls.
You have to get the ball in the air to get it out of the park. This is true even if your home park suppresses home runs between one and five percent depending on your handedness. It would be folly to believe a .300 ISO from Logan Morrison, given his minor league career numbers, but a .200 ISO now seems possible with his new ground-ball rate. With the average major league ISO now down to .139, Morrison’s power looks better in comparison even if he doesn’t sustain a .200 ISO, though.
It’s clear that Mr. Morrison is an excellent play even if he doesn’t ever hit 30 home runs a season. His modest power is being boosted by what might turn out to be a real change in approach at the plate.
In this installment of Mining the Minors, we take a look at a pair of high-upside pitchers in Triple-A — one starter and one reliever — who pile up loads of strikeouts. And almost as many walks.
As mentioned in Mining the Minors a couple weeks ago, timing is important when it comes to keeping tabs on minor-leaguers while they’re still, ya know, in the minor leagues. But knowledge was meant to be shared, not withheld. Hence, a second incarnation of this column is born — with the same 2011-or-bust focus for fantasy — only instead of highlighting players in the minors, this iteration will cover those who recently have either made their big-league debut or been recalled.
Similar to the other version of this column, which will still drop on Fridays, the Thursday edition will offer a quick take at lesser-known farmhands and veteran minor leaguers, but will also look at the top-end prospects, too — all with a nod to their fantasy relevance and impact for this season. To help owners, I’ll continue to include a player’s Talent Rating; but just as important is what I’m calling the Cling Factor, which points out the likelihood that a player will remain in the majors (or return, if already sent down) during this season.