The Toronto Blue Jays organization has been stockpiling left-handed pitchers in the last couple of seasons, which has created impressive depth. At this point in the off-season, the organization could utilize upwards of 10 southpaws in 2009, should the need arise. With left-handed pitching always in short supply around the Majors, the organization could also use that depth to acquire some much-needed offence.

The majority of the left-handed pitching for the Jays comes in the form of relievers. Those relievers include B.J. Ryan, Scott Downs, Brian Tallet, Jesse Carlson, Fabio Castro, Reid Santos, and Davis Romero. The starting pitchers include youngsters David Purcey, Ricky Romero and Bill Murphy.

From a Fantasy perspective, Ryan is the most likely pitcher to have an impact in 2009. The closer missed almost all of 2007 after having Tommy John surgery but returned for 2008 and saved 32 games in 36 attempts. Despite the save total, Ryan’s stuff did not return to its pre-surgery levels and he lost a couple miles per hour off both his fastball and slider. His command also wavered and his walk rate worsened by more than one walk per nine innings from his days as a dominating reliever. On the plus side, he still saved quite a few games despite not having his best stuff. Ryan is now even further removed from his surgery so there is some hope that he will regain some velocity on his pitches in 2009. If he does, he has the potential to reach the 40-save plateau.

Downs has been a valuable pitcher for the Jays after being saved from the scrap heap prior to the 2005 season. In the past two seasons, the reliever has appeared in 147 games for the Jays and has a FIP of about 3.30 during that time frame. In 2008, the left-hander allowed just 54 hits in 70.2 innings of work and posted rates of 3.44 BB/9 and 7.26 K/9. The former starting pitcher has saved his career with the move to the bullpen but the Jays are considering stretching him out in spring training with an outside chance of giving him a starter’s role in 2009. He’s added 3 mph to his fastball in the past three seasons but he’s also gone from relying on four pitches to two. It will be interesting to see how Downs responds in spring training; he’s someone to keep an eye on.

Both Tallet and Carlson could have significant roles on the Jays in 2009 but neither should have a Fantasy impact.

Among the starters, Purcey figures to have the best shot of beginning the season in Toronto. Last season, the former first-round pick finally improved his command and control enough to pitch at the Major League level. The 26-year-old allowed 67 hits in 65 innings of work and posted rates of 4.02 BB/9 and 8.03 K/9. At 6’5”, 240 pounds, he has a workhorse body and the raw stuff to succeed, as long as he can find the strike zone. With a number of holes in the starting rotation, Purcey will have a great shot at pitching 180-200 innings.

Romero is another former first-round selection that has struggled with consistency in the minors, in part due to a lack of command. He finished the 2008 season in Triple-A and showed enough improvement to give hope that he could contribute at the Major League level in 2009. In seven starts, he allowed 42 hits in 42.2 innings. He posted rates of 4.22 BB/9 and 8.02 K/9. When he’s on, Romero works in the low 90s with a good change-up. His breaking balls are inconsistent but the curveball has plus potential. The 24-year-old probably won’t begin the season in Toronto but he could be racking up big league innings by the end of the season.

Will the real Jered Weaver please stand up? Is he the consensus top talent available in the 2004 draft and the one who went a combined 17-3 between Triple-A and the majors in 2006, with 11 of those wins coming for the Angels? Or is he the slightly above league average pitcher he’s been the past two seasons, someone who can give you a decent ERA but not the innings you hope for from one of your top pitchers?

Weaver went 11-2 with a 2.56 ERA for the Angels in 2006. But he had three numbers that suggested he was not nearly that good. First, his BABIP that year was .246, which would have been the second lowest mark in the majors if he had enough innings to qualify. And second, his LOB% was 86.2 percent, which would have led the majors by a significant amount. Chris Young was the actual leader with an 80.7 percent strand rate. Finally, his FIP of 3.90 was 1.34 above his actual ERA.

And if that wasn’t enough, Weaver struggled with biceps and shoulder injuries in 2007. He did well to put up a 13-win, 3.91 ERA season. That gave hope that in 2008, with a full Spring Training under his belt, he could evolve into one of the top young starting pitchers in the game.

Instead, Weaver put up a disappointing season. But while his 2006 peripherals all pointed the wrong way, now Weaver has some markings which indicate he could be an undervalued commodity on Draft Day this year.

That LOB%, which was so out of the norm in 2006, has done a near 180-degree turn. Last year Weaver had a 70.7 strand rate, which was the 22nd-lowest mark in the majors. And his FIP was lower than his ERA by 0.43, which was the 14th-biggest discrepancy in MLB.

Weaver also regained strikeouts last year, as he averaged a K/9 of 7.74, up 1.31 from the previous year. His control is not as pinpoint as it was in 2006, but his K/BB ratio slotted him between Brandon Webb and Jake Peavy on the leaderboard, plenty good enough to be a number-two type starting pitcher.

One of the big problems with Weaver is that he is an extreme fly ball pitcher. His 0.71 GB/FB ratio was the second-lowest mark in the majors in 2008. He compensates for that somewhat by inducing a lot of infield pop-ups, which helps keep his home runs allowed at a reasonable rate.

According to the RotoTimes Player Rater, Weaver earned $3.99 last year. That should be the lower end of his fantasy range in 2009. Mock Draft Central’s current ADP report does not show Weaver as one of the top 200 players, indicating there is not a lot of current demand for him. The combination of his skill set and room for improvement in luck makes Weaver an attractive late-game option.

The signing of former Rays’ outfielder Rocco Baldelli has caused the Red Sox to bump knuckleballer Charlie Zink from the club’s 40-man roster. It’s the first time Zink has been designated for assignment so he will remain in the organization unless another team grabs him on the waiver wire – or trades for him.

It would be a shock if someone does not take a shot at the right-hander. Zink is still young in knuckleball years at the age of 29 and there certainly are not a lot of pitchers that can consistently throw the pitch with any type of success. In 2008 at Triple-A, Zink allowed just 144 hits in 174.1 innings, with rates of 2.53 BB/9 and 5.47 K/9. He’s done a nice job of keeping the ball in the park during his career and he allowed just 13 home runs in 2008 (0.67 HR/9). On the superficial level, he went 14-6 and had an ERA of 2.84 (but a FIP of 3.99). Zink would have received a much larger big league opportunity in 2008 in just about any other Major League organization, but Boston’s starting pitching depth was just too deep.

In his only career MLB appearance, which came on Aug. 12, 2008 against Texas, he allowed eight runs and 11 hits (but just one walk) in 4.1 innings. During that start, almost 73% of his pitches were knuckleballs averaging out at 68.5 mph. He threw 21.4% fastball (at an average of 82.2 mph) and mixed in a few 76 mph sliders. Zink threw a first-pitch strike 60% of the time.

It would be shocking if this was Zink’s one and only MLB appearance. There are a lot of teams out there that could use a fourth or fifth starter with his potential, especially after his solid 2008 Triple-A season and given his unique repertoire. Clubs that should consider Zink include San Diego, Houston, Milwaukee, Texas, and Baltimore.

One of the great unknowns heading into the 2009 season is how fantasy players will treat reigning Cy Young Award winner Tim Lincecum. On the one hand, we have the top fantasy hurler in the National League, one who led the league in strikeouts, finished second in wins and ERA and eighth in WHIP. On the other hand, Lincecum led the majors in Baseball Prospectus’ Pitcher Abuse Points and he topped Tom Verducci’s magical line of an increase of 30 IP for a starter under 25.

There is enough of a backlash against strict adherence to pitch counts from all corners of baseball that Lincecum’s value would probably not be hurt by that alone. But when combined with his innings pitched increase of 49.2 from his combined majors + minors total in 2007, there are going to be more than a handful of people wary of investing too much in the Giants’ ace.

The Bill James projection system has Lincecum with another outstanding year in 2009, nearly matching his wins and WHIP from a year ago, showing a slight increase in strikeouts but a 0.40 drop in ERA. James even predicts 13 more innings pitched from Lincecum in 2009. But James is one of the critics of the Pitcher Abuse Points system.

The Marcel projection for Lincecum does not show him coming anywhere close to his 2008 numbers. But the Marcel projections are not particularly reliable for players with his experience in the majors.

Ultimately, each fantasy player will have to decide how much to weigh Lincecum’s obvious talents versus the systems that predict bad things for him based on how comparable pitchers have fared under his work load in the past.

However, it’s always nice to get an ace starter at a reduced cost.

Several years back, Daniel Cabrera was one of the more intriguing young arms in the American League East. A hulking 6-9, 270 pound righty who missed plenty of bats (and often the strike zone) while generating some grounders, Cabrera appeared to be Baltimore’s best hope at cultivating a home-grown starter to front the club’s rotation. If you squinted really hard, you might have even seen a Carlos Zambrano starter kit on the mound for the O’s.

After a wobbly introduction to the big leagues in 2004 (0.85 K/BB ratio, 5.10 FIP in 147 IP) in which his upper-90’s heater often missed the mark, Cabrera turned in an impressive campaign as a 24 year-old during the 2005 season. The Dominican Republic native punched out 8.76 batters per nine innings and kept his infielders busy with a 52.7 GB%. His walk rate remained tenuous at 4.85 per nine innings, but the overall result of those whiffs and grounders was a tidy 4.02 FIP. With 96 MPH cheese, Cabrera figured to establish himself as Baltimore’s ace if he could pare those free passes down to a more reasonable level.

Instead of building off of that promising season, however, Cabrera seemed to take a step backward in 2006. His K rate climbed all the way to 9.55 per nine innings (3rd among all starters tossing at least 140 frames), but his already-high propensity to issue ball four rose to an untenable level: 6.32 BB/9. After posting an above-average groundball rate in ’05, Cabrera found his pitches being lifted more frequently, with just a 40.7 GB%.

His FIP was still a decent-looking 4.20, but that figure was held down by a low home run/flyball rate: after surrendering a homer on 10.4% of his flyballs in ’05, Cabrera lucked into a 7.6 HR/FB% in 2006. If we adjust for that HR/FB rate by using Expected Fielding Independent ERA (XFIP) from The Hardball Times, we find that Cabrera’s XFIP rose from 4.20 in ’05 to 4.83 in ’06.

In 2007, Cabrera essentially made a trade-off, swapping some strikeouts for (relatively) improved control. His K rate fell to 7.31 per nine, with his walk rate falling from cartoonishly bad to just mediocre (4.76 BB/9). The result was a nearly unchanged strikeout-to-walk ratio, as Cabrera posted a 1.54 K/BB that mirrored his 1.51 showing in 2006. His groundball rate recovered (49.5%), but Cabrera didn’t experience the same good fortune with the longball, surrendering 1.1 HR/9. His FIP rose to 5.01, with his XFIP ticking up slightly to 4.89.

If the 2007 season was a disappointing showing from a stagnating pitcher, then 2008 was an unmitigated disaster for the 27 year-old Cabrera. Once a high-octane, high strikeout hurler who walked more than his fair share of batters, Cabrera lost the velocity and strikeout portions of that equation while still showing little ability to paint the corners. In 180 innings, the big righty saw his K rate plummet to 4.75 per nine innings, while his walk rate remained a ho-hum 4.5 per nine.

Once capable of reaching the upper-90’s with his fastball on a consistent basis, Cabrera averaged a more tame 92.6 MPH in ’08, down nearly 4 MPH since his solid 2005 campaign. Cabrera has actually become more reliant on his heater despite its loss of zip: after throwing his fastball about three-quarters of the time in 2006 and 2007 (an already lofty rate), he used his diminished heat 82.5% of the time in ’08. No other starter in the majors relied on his fastball as much as Cabrera.

With waning stuff that led to a nasty 5.61 FIP and 5.41 XFIP, Cabrera was pretty easy to make contact with this past season. He hit the DL in September with a sprained elbow, after barely cracking 90 MPH with his fastball during two ineffective late-season starts. Courtesy of Josh Kalk’s pitch F/X tool, let’s take a look at the difference in Cabrera’s arsenal between 2007 and 2008:

2007

Fastball: -5.16 X, 10.06 Z, 4.2 Swinging Strike%
Slider: 6.16 X, -0.9 Z, 18.5 Swinging Strike %

2008

Fastball: -8.49 X, 8.02 Z, 3.2 Swinging Strike%
Slider: 0.68 X, 1.13 Z, 13.5 Swinging Strike%

(X is horizontal movement. A negative X number means that the pitch is moving in toward a right-handed hitter, while a positive X means that the pitch is moving away from a righty hitter (in to a lefty). Z is vertical movement- the lower the Z number, the more the pitch “drops” in the strike zone.)

Cabrera’s fastball was never a big swing-and-miss pitch to begin with (the average Swinging Strike% for a fastball is about six percent), but batters whiffed at the pitch even less in ’08, as the offering tailed in on the hands of right-handed batters more but featured less vertical break. Cabrera’s slider, a pretty lively pitch in ’07, didn’t have near as much jump this past season and saw a five percent dip in swinging strikes. Perhaps in an effort to preserve his elbow, Cabrera mixed in his slider just 15.3% of the time in ’08, down from 23% the previous year.

Basically a one-pitch starter with an occasional hanging slider, Cabrera saw his Contact% rise considerably. He was once pretty difficult to put the bat on the ball against, but hitters made contact with 87.6% of pitches thrown by Cabrera this past year, up from 81.9% the previous season. Those figures are a far cry from the mid 70’s contact percentages that Cabrera compiled in 2005 and 2006.

That high-80’s contact figure placed Cabrera among groundball machine Aaron Cook, as well as recently retired control artists Mike Mussina and Greg Maddux. Suffice it to say, Cabrera does not fit in among this group. And, not only are opponents putting the ball in play often against him, but they just plain don’t chase his offerings out of the strike zone. Cabrera’s 18.9 O-Swing% in ’08 was by far the lowest rate among all starters.

Despite receiving a major-league worst 5.38 FIP from the club’s starting pitchers and resorting to allowing Steve Trachsel to make eight starts, the Orioles cut ties with Cabrera this off-season by non-tendering him. Scooped up by the pitching-starved Washington Nationals, Cabrera will team with the equally enigmatic Scott Olsen in hopes of reviving the promise of years past.

It was pretty easy to be optimistic about Daniel Cabrera’s future following his 2005 showing. However, he stagnated for two seasons after that, before doing a Wile E. Coyote style cliff dive in 2008. Perhaps an offseason of rest will heal his elbow and restore his stuff, but it’s best to just pass on Cabrera at this point- 2005 seems like an awfully long time ago for this hurler.

Last season began well enough for Aaron Harang.

In fact, through his first 11 starts, he was having a normal, Harang-like season. Check it out:

Harang had a 3.50 ERA, more or less what we’d expect given those peripherals. But then, Dusty Baker made an interesting decision.

On May 22, Aaron Harang made a start on normal rest. Then, on May 25, Baker brought Harang into a tie game in the 13th inning. Harang proceeded to pitch 4 shutout innings, striking out 9 and throwing 63 pitches in the process. Harang’s next start was on May 29.

Starting pitchers have been known to pitch an inning out of the bullpen between starts, but Harang threw 63 pitches – in a tie game, no less. Of course, Harang has had a rubber arm over the last couple of seasons, having pitched over 200 innings in three straight years. If anyone could handle the added workload, it would be Harang, right?

Apparently not.

After the bullpen appearance, Harang had a 7.31 in his next eight starts. Here are his accompanying peripherals:

His strikeout rate was approximately the same, but he walked one more batter per nine innings. His homer rate also skyrocketed. The question is: was Harang unlucky – thanks to a very-high BABIP and homer rate – or was he hurt?

Well, Harang was placed on the DL on July 9 with a strained right forearm. He was then activated on August 10. However, he struggled mightily in his first two starts, giving up a total of 16 runs in 7 1/3 innings. After that, though, Harang seemed to regain his past form. Check it out:

He posted a 2.83 ERA over these eight starts.

So what does it all mean? Well…

On the one hand, Harang’s peripherals didn’t really change too much throughout the season, even after his bullpen stint. His walk rate rose, and it’s very possible that fatigue caused him to lose control of his pitches. However, his strikeout rate remained high, and it’s possible that his high BABIP and high homer rate could be more attributed to bad luck in a small sample size rather than anything else.

On the other hand, it’s difficult to ignore the fact that Harang’s ERA changed drastically directly after his outing in the bullpen. If he did indeed lose control of his pitches (as evidenced by the higher walk rate), it’s not difficult to surmise that he was also grooving an inordinate amount of pitches, leading to a higher BABIP and higher homer rate.

After he returned from the DL, his first two starts were awful, but this can be very easily be attributed to the fact that he wasn’t yet fully healthy. In his final eight starts, Harang more-or-less returned to “normal” form. His BABIP was actually a little low, and his strikeout rate was lower than before. Again, it’s difficult to tell whether this is significant or the product of a small sample size.

If I had to guess, I’d say that the bullpen stint somehow screwed Harang up. It’s very possible that his 7.31 ERA was inflated partly due to bad luck, but it’s also clear that Harang was not as good of a pitcher after the bullpen outing as he was beforehand. It’s also clear that Harang was pretty much back to “normal” after returning from the DL (well, after his first two starts). This is further evidence for Harang actually being injured.

For next year, it’s fair to expect Harang to return to his normal numbers – his numbers before 2008. That means that he has the potential to be very undervalued going into drafts next year. There is, of course, a caveat: namely, the possibility that Harang is not fully healthy. This seems unlikely, however, given his performance over the final eight starts of the season.

Aaron Harang plays for a mediocre team, in front of a poor defense, in a hitter’s park. However, he is also a very good pitcher who is likely to put up numbers that are much better than his 2008 line. It’s reasonable to expect an ERA between 3.50 and 4, and a strikeout rate somewhere around 8 batters per nine. Harang is probably going to be undervalued in your league, and is an excellent sleeper.

Entering the 2008 season, right-hander Brad Penny likely had free agent riches in his sights. The 30 year-old had posted a sub-four Fielding Independent ERA (FIP) for five straight seasons, including a 2007 campaign in which he topped the 200-inning mark for the first time since 2001. With another strong showing Penny figured to snag a pretty penny, securing a long-term pact paying an annual salary in the eight-figure range.

Those hopes of a lavish multi-year deal never materialized, however, as Penny dealt with a shoulder injury that placed him on the 15-day DL three separate times: “mild tendinitis” in June, “shoulder inflammation” in August, and “shoulder soreness” in August.

In between that trio of trips to the DL, a less-than optimal Penny turned in his worst season as a professional. Tossing just 94.2 frames, the 2006 NL All-Star starter punched out less than five batters per nine innings while walking about four per nine. Combined with an elevated home run rate (1.24 per nine), Penny posted a 5.27 FIP. Penny’s fastball velocity was down a tick from 2007 (from 93.4 MPH to 92.4 MPH), and the speed of his heater jumped around quite a bit during the summer months as he tried to pitch through his shoulder ailment:

June: 94.1 MPH
(DL stint)
August: 89.6 MPH
(DL stint)
September: 92.8 MPH
(DL stint)

Take a look at these clips from the Baseball-Intellect website. One shows Penny unleashing a 97 MPH fastball in a May 13th start versus Milwaukee, while the other shows Brad more or less lobbing a 90 MPH pitch August 8th against San Francisco. Cleary, Penny’s shoulder was bothering him a great deal. It’s difficult to argue with R.J. Anderson, who suggests that it would have been in the best interests of both the free-agent-to-be and the Dodgers for Penny to have shut it down far earlier than he did.

Penny was forced to take a one-year deal following his injury-wracked season, inking a one-year, $5 million contract with the Red Sox that includes an additional $3 million in possible incentives. Let’s assume for the time being that Penny reports to spring training in good health. The 6-4, 260 pounder has never posted ace-like peripherals, but his league-average K rate (6.36 K/9), decent control (2.93 BB/9) and mild groundball tendencies (48.7 GB% in ’07, 49.1% in ’08) have allowed him to post a very useful 3.95 career FIP.

Marcel projects a 4.11 FIP out of Penny in 127 innings, meaning that Brad would surrender about 58 runs. A replacement-level starter (with a 5.50 FIP) would give up about 77.6 runs in the same number of innings. Penny’s 19.6 runs above replacement (1.96 WAR) would make him worth about $9.4 million, using a scale of $4.8 million per WAR. In other words, Brad would be well worth his salary, even if he didn’t hit the 160-inning threshold that kickstarts his incentive money. Bringing in a solid starter like Penny on a one-year deal was a shrewd move by an organization that makes plenty of intelligent decisions. If Penny makes a full season’s worth of starts, he’ll be an outright steal.

If Penny’s shoulder heals, he could be a nice bargain on draft day. Some owners might have a sour taste in their mouths from his 2008 work, but the big righty is certainly worth tracking during the offseason. If the medical reports sound promising, give some thought to picking up a Penny for your fantasy squad.

Jarrod Washburn is not a guy I’ve wanted on my fantasy teams over the last few years. But this year, that could change.

Let’s be clear: Washburn is not a particularly good pitcher. However, Washburn has been remarkably consistent in his time with the Mariners: since 2006, he’s posted FIPs of 4.78, 4.77 and 4.72. His fastball averages less than 88 MPH, and he only managed to strike out 5.3 batters per nine innings last year. So why am I writing about him?

Because Washburn could have some value this year, thanks to the defense behind him.

Washburn is a fly ball pitcher who allows a lot of balls in play. He doesn’t strike many batters out, and he relies on his defense to turn batted balls into outs. Washburn’s career BABIP is .282, lower than many pitchers’ BABIPs. However, in his career Washburn has allowed 43.7% of his balls in play to be fly balls, as compared to only 36.3% grounders. By their nature, fly balls become outs more often than grounders, perhaps explaining Washburn’s relative success on balls in play.

Last year, however, Washburn’s BABIP was .309 – the highest BABIP in Washburn’s career. In fact, 2008 was the only year in his 11-year career in which his BABIP has been over .300. That’s amazing. Thing is, the high BABIP appears to be a fluke – related more to the Mariners’s poor defense last year, rather than a decline in Washburn’s skills. Washburn’s strikeout rate was actually higher last year than it was in 2005 and 2006, and was only slightly lower than his 2007 rate. He also managed to lower his walk rate from 2007, and batters made contact approximately as often as they had in the past. In other words, Washburn may not be particularly good, but he’s not getting much worse, either.

And he has reason to be optimistic for 2009. Earlier this offseason, the Mariners completed a three-way trade in which they acquired Franklin Gutierrez and Endy Chavez – two of the best defensive outfielders in the game. Gutierrez will likely be the starting center fielder, with Ichiro in right. Left field is undecided at the moment, but the Mariners have shown a dedication to improving their defense. Washburn should benefit from regression to the mean, as his .309 BABIP from last year was an outlier in his career. But he should benefit further from an improved Mariners defense – especially outfield defense – that turns more balls in play into outs. If the Mariners defense allows Washburn to improve upon his career BABIP by 20 points, he’d have a .262 BABIP, which would lead to an ERA probably around 4.00 or 4.20.

Even with a strikeout rate around five batters per nine and a woeful offense preventing him from getting many wins, Jarrod Washburn could have some value in large mixed leagues or AL Only leagues thanks to a potentially stellar ERA and WHIP. He’s certainly no fantasy ace, but as a late round pickup in a deep league, you could do a lot worse than Jarrod Washburn.

Many fantasy players like to avoid starting pitchers with low strikeout rates, and rightly so. Often times, strikeout rate goes hand in hand with success as a starting pitcher. Many high strikeout pitchers also accumulate many wins and have low ERA and WHIPs. However, you don’t have to strike lots of batters out in order to be a successful pitcher at the major league level.

Baseball abounds with relatively low-risk players who are very solid pitchers but don’t get many strikeouts. Names like Chien-Ming Wang, Andy Sonnanstine, Derek Lowe, Aaron Cook, Kevin Slowey, and others don’t inspire visions of leading a fantasy team to the promised land, but they are often the best values in drafts. While they may not get that many strikeouts, these pitchers are likely to have a lot of wins, as well as low ERAs and WHIPs. Furthermore, because they are relatively low risk, they are still going to get their share of strikeouts. Over 180 innings, a pitcher who strikes out only 5.5 batters per nine innings will rack up 110 strikeouts. Sure, Joba Chamberlain might average a strikeout per inning, but if Joba only pitches 100 innings…well, you can do the math.

That’s not to say that Andy Sonnanstine is better than Joba Chamberlain; rather, it’s to say that Sonnanstine has more value than Joba, because of their respective draft positions. By drafting Sonnanstine you are sacrificing somewhat on strikeouts, but you’re enhancing your team because you are able to get Sonnanstine relatively late in the draft, allowing your team to stock up in something else (Power? Saves? Steals?) earlier.

Of course, it would be no good to come in last in your league in strikeouts, but this is unlikely even if you have several Andy Sonnanstines on your team. Remember, guy like Sonnanstine will still get a fair share of strikeouts simply because they are likely to pitch a lot of innings; furthermore, other teams are likely to experience injury and performance issues that will keep their pitchers’ strikeout totals down.

Also, there is nothing wrong with drafting some high strikeout pitchers as well. The best fantasy teams are a mix of risk and reward. Just keep in mind that while they may not be particularly sexy, there are some very valuable low strikeout pitchers who can fill out your staff for a relatively low price.

Arizona Diamondbacks right-hander Brandon Webb generates ground balls. A lot of them. In fact, the University of Kentucky product lapped the competition in terms of burning worms in 2008, with a 3.15 GB/FB ratio (second place went to free agent Derek Lowe, at a distant 2.63 to one).

With so many of Webb’s offerings being pounded into the infield dirt, the D-Backs’ co-ace will often require the services of his infielders to convert those grounders into outs. Let’s take a look at Arizona’s projected starting infield for the 2009 season, with their 2008 and career UZR/150 ratings at their respective positions:

1B Conor Jackson: 4.4 UZR/150 in ’08, -1.6 UZR/150 career
2B Felipe Lopez: -7.9 UZR/150 in ’08, -4.4 UZR/150 career
SS Stephen Drew: -14.5 UZR/150 in ’08, -13.5 UZR/150 career
3B Mark Reynolds: -2.2 UZR/150 in ’08, -4.6 UZR/150 career

Yuck. Arizona’s projected infield rated as 20.2 runs below average per 150 games last season, and the career totals are even worse: -24.1 runs below per 150 contests. If these guys continue to flash leaden leather, Webb might not be on speaking terms with his infielders by May. Granted, the 29 year-old posted a .297 BABIP with Drew and Reynolds on the left side of the infield and Jackson occasionally at first in 2008, but it’s still disconcerting that such a groundball-centric pitcher will reside in front of four below-average defenders.

Over the past few weeks, I have discussed the importance of context when evaluating pitchers. Whether it be Texas’ similarly lagging fielding prowess or Seattle’s new incredibly rangy outfield, the quality of the defenders behind a pitcher can make a noticeable impact on his performance. When a batter puts the ball in play, the pitcher is fairly dependent upon his fielders to convert that ball into an out. When those defenders struggle to do so, that pitcher is going to surrender some hits and runs that he really shouldn’t have.

Luckily with Webb, the pitcher in question here also possesses excellent controllable skills that aren’t subject to the caprices of his defense. With a 2.82 K/BB ratio and few home runs surrendered, Webb posted a 3.28 FIP this past season. Webb is undoubtedly an excellent starter deserving of a high draft pick. But, it is worth noting that the fielders behind him aren’t especially adept and might cause his stat line to look a little worse than it should.