Archive for Shortstops

You Can’t Spell Burriss Without SB

Stolen bases are annoying.

Most offensive stats in fantasy baseball are interrelated – if you hit a home run, you also score a run and drive (at least) a run in on at the same time. But stolen bases are almost entirely unrelated to the other offensive categories, and are therefore the most inefficient and difficult offensive stat to obtain.

Players who offer power as well as steals – such as Grady Sizemore – tend to be extremely valuable, and rightly so. Therefore, it behooves the smart fantasy player to find late-round picks who can rack up a lot of steals. While they may not contribute too much in other categories, the idea is that you are able to stock up on power hitters earlier, and then steal some steals (get it?) late.

With that in mind, meet Emmanuel Burriss.

The 23-year-old shortstop debuted for the San Francisco Giants this year, posting a line of .283/.357/.323. More importantly for you, he stole 13 bases (in 18 attempts) in a mere 240 at bats. With the departure of Omar Vizquel and the dearth of other shortstops in the Giants system, Burris has the inside track on the shortstop gig in San Francisco next year. Of course, he’s not likely to be particularly good – in fact, his minor league track record suggests that Burris may be one of the worst hitters in baseball next year.

However, that doesn’t really matter to you. What matters is that Burris is fast. Very fast. In 2007, he stole 68 bases in 125 games. The year before he stole 34 bases in 65 games. That kind of speed is rare to find – and it’s even rarer that a guy with that kind of speed is going to be playing every day.

Furthermore, Burriss has demonstrated an excellent ability to put the ball in play during his short professional career. Of course, he rarely walks and has virtually no power, but he also doesn’t strike out too often. This means that he should be able to keep his batting average respectable – even if his OBP is poor and his SLG is downright abysmal. While the Giants may be concerned about his lack of patience and power, fantasy players only care about his batting average and stolen bases – both of which should be respectable, at least.

Emmanuel Burriss isn’t very good, at least not yet. He won’t hit many homers or drive in many runs, but he’s extremely fast and is line to play every day. If he can manage 600 plate appearances this year, Burris could steal in the neighborhood of 40-50 bases. While the risk is rather high, there are few players out there who could give you that many steals…especially players who are likely to be available very late in your draft.


Mike Aviles: Royal Gem or Flash in the Pan?

Coming into the 2008 season, Mike Aviles was not on the radar screen of many fans or analysts. A short (5-9), stocky (205 pounds) 27 year-old, Aviles was seen as more of an organizational solider than a future starter at the major league level. Signed for a mere $1,000 out of division two Concordia in the 7th round of the 2003 draft, Aviles had spent the prior two seasons putting up relatively mild numbers at AAA Omaha, posting a .679 OPS in 2006 and a .796 mark in 2007. Left off the 40-man roster last winter and ranked as the 29th-best prospect in the system by Baseball America, Aviles figured to spend another season toiling in the PCL.

However, two factors combined to make Aviles’ 2008 campaign a memorable one: 1.) he got off to a torrid start in his third stint at Omaha (.336/.369/.631 in 214 AB) and 2.) he had the good fortune of not being Tony Pena Jr. (Pena’s RC/27 of 1.18 was the lowest among all players with at least 200 PA- that’s right, a team of Tony Pena’s would somehow manage to score 1 run per game). Aviles more than improved upon the low standards of the man he replaced, posting a .325/.354/.480 line. His WPA/LI of 1.28 was the fourth-best among shortstops with at least 400 PA.

So, what can be expected of Mike Aviles going forward? On the positive side, Aviles has shown a propensity to put the bat on the ball, striking out no more than 11% of the time at the AAA level and whiffing 13.8% in the majors. Combined with decent pop for a middle infielder (.155 ISO), Aviles has some things going for him offensively.

However, there is one very large red flag waving over Aviles: the man does not like to walk. His BB%’s over the past three years at Omaha were 5.6, 5.3, and 4.9. With the Royals, he drew a free pass just 4.1% of the time. If anything, he’s going backward in this regard. Aviles swung at 35.5 percent of pitches thrown out of the strike zone in 2008. Among shortstops with 200 or more PA, only noted hackers Angel Berroa, Clint Barmes and our old friend Pena Jr. swung at more bad balls.

As a player who relies heavily upon his batting average to succeed, Aviles carries a higher degree of risk. His BABIP was .359 last season. Given his line drive rate (20.2%), we would expect his BABIP to be about .322 (LD% + .120 is the formula for expected BABIP). If we remove those 37 extra points of average from Aviles’ line, he has a less shiny .299/.332/.443. Batting average is prone to variation more than most other offensive stats, and it’s not uncommon to see a player with a .300 skillset like Aviles hit 20 or 30 points below that mark. For example, take Pirates second baseman Freddy Sanchez, another batting average-fueled middle infielder. A productive player when he hit .344 in 2006 and .304 in 2007, Sanchez was a fantasy killer when he hit just .271 in 2008.

Mike Aviles is someone to keep on the radar screen at a position where offense comes at a premium, but keep in mind that he needs those extra ducksnorts to fall in there to be productive. A .330-hitting Aviles is a quality player, but a .280-hitting Aviles isn’t near as attractive.