The shortstop position in fantasy baseball as we head towards the 2009 season has three players in the top tier and around 10 players fighting for position in the second tier. One of the interesting players is Indians shortstop Jhonny Peralta. In three of the past four years, Peralta has delivered good numbers in home runs, runs and RBIs. Last year he led all shortstops in RBIs and finished third in both runs and HRs. Unfortunately, he contributes nothing in steals and his average has not been a plus since 2005.

Last year, Peralta’s numbers benefited by him putting more balls in play. Both his BB% and SO% decreased as he set career highs in five plate discipline metrics. He had 17 more plate appearances than 2007 but 51 more balls where he made contact. Peralta’s BABIP was his lowest since becoming a full-time player in 2005 but he posted his second-best fantasy season, going .276-23-89-104-3.

A switch in the batting order also helped Peralta’s 2008 numbers. Last year he spent much of the year in the cleanup spot after hitting fifth, sixth or seventh most of the year in 2007. As the Indians did not add a slugger in the off-season, Peralta still figures to hit in the heart of the order, which should keep his RBI numbers high.

Peralta should be a pretty good bet to match last year’s numbers. What is harder to say is where fantasy owners should target him. One ADP report has him at #83, which is at the end of the seventh round. Another report has him at #117, which is in the middle of the 10th round. This is a pretty big discrepancy, but perfectly reasonable given how bunched up the second tier of shortstops actually are.

One of the keys to being a successful fantasy player is understanding the ebb and flow of your draft. Even if you rank Peralta as the fourth-best shortstop in fantasy, is there any reason to draft him in the seventh round if J.J. Hardy, Troy Tulowitzki, Michael Young, Stephen Drew and Derek Jeter are all still available?

Peralta should put up good fantasy numbers once again in 2009. But he is just one of many middle-class options at shortstop. You should feel good if you wind up with Peralta as your starting shortstop. Just remember not to reach or overpay for the privilege.

After hitting below .190 in his first two pro seasons combined (479 at-bats), it looked like Robert Andino was going to be a bust. The 2002 second round draft pick out of high school improved the next season, though, and hit .280 between two A-ball levels. At the end of 2005, he earned a late-season call-up to Florida and played in 17 games but hit just .159/.245/.250.

In 2006, Andino began his first of three straight seasons in Triple-A. He hit .256/.304/.364 and received another brief call-up to the Majors. The next season, the shortstop had his best full season in the minors and hit .278/.322/.428 in 598 at-bats with 13 triples, 13 home runs and 21 stolen bases (although he was caught 13 times). Andino received his third Major League stint and appeared in seven games.

Finally, in 2008, the Miami native had the chance to spend some significant time in Florida. He appeared in just 43 Triple-A games, while spending the rest of the season in the Majors. That said, he managed to get into just 44 games and had only 63 at-bats while hitting .206/.254/.333 with an ISO of .127. He also posted rates of 6.0 BB% and 36.5 K% while being shuttled between the Majors and Triple-A all season long.

Recently in the newspaper, Andino expressed a desire to play or be traded. It’s not surprising that the 24 year old does not see a future for himself in Florida with Hanley Ramirez at shortstop (.308/.400/.540 career) and Dan Uggla at second base (.262/.341/.490 career). The club also traded for young second baseman Emilio Bonifacio earlier in the off-season. The problem for Andino, though, is that he has little trade value at this point because he has yet to prove that he can hit Major League pitching.

Andino is also out of options, which means he’ll have to go through waivers if Florida attempts to send him down at any point in 2009. The Pittsburgh Pirates were rumored to have been interested in Andino earlier in the winter. There is a lot of varying thought on Andino, who strikes out way too much for a player with modest power. He also does not take advantage of his speed due to poor instincts on the base paths. The CHONE projection system suggests a 2009 line of .237/.296/.352 (in 489 at-bats), while Marcel projects .262/.326/.410 (in 219 at-bats).

It’s possible that everything could click for the athletic Andino is 2009, but a lot of things have to go right for that to happen, including a trade or waiver claim to get him out of Florida.

Elvis Andrus is the 20-year-old phenom coming for Michael Young’s job. Last year, Andrus was a 19-year-old holding his own in AA. He hit .295 with 54 stolen bases. The rest of his game, though, was pretty incomplete. At the dish, Andrus only walked 7.3% of the time and showed very little pop (IsoP of only .073). With the glove Elvis did not fare much better. While he has shown extraordinary range, he has not proven to be very sure-handed. He had 32 errors in 109 games which is right in line with his career .944 fielding percentage.

So with these facts in mind, why is the Rangers front-office planning on moving the very expensive Young to 3B? It seems they are trying to make room for Andrus, but the question of whether or not he’s ready is a good one. I would expect that the Rangers will employ a stopgap option at SS while they wait to see how Andrus does in the minors this year. Asking Young to move was likely similar to what the Rays did last year with Iwamura and Longoria; they did not expect Longoria to come to the Bigs so early and planned on using a stopgap at third. If Andrus does come up next year, then what can we expect?

Looking at Andrus’s MLEs, you see a slash-line of .235/.292/.290/.582 for his performance last year. This is very unimpressive. His projections are not all that pretty either. The big-ticket issue with Andrus, though, is his steals and position eligibility. If you can get 30-40 steals from a cheap SS without him killing you in other categories, then you are in business. Another thing that makes him a little more attractive is his home ballpark: Arlington. If we can bump his rate-stats up some for that then he could be useful. These MLEs also go off of a BABIP of .289. It would not be surprising to see him with a BABIP much higher considering his speed and line-drive hitting ability.

All in all, Elvis Andrus probably isn’t someone you want to draft unless you play in a pretty deep league. The best idea (and what I plan on doing) may be to keep a close eye on his minor-league box scores, the newspapers in TX, and whatever the SS for the big-squad is doing. Be poised and ready to make a waiver-request because a .290/.330/.320 line at SS with a lot of steals may just be sitting there at the All-Star Break. A less-enthusiastic projection could even see him as the SS version of Willy Taveras.

Michael Young has requested a trade from the Texas Rangers. This is not good news for Fantasy owners who have Mr. Young on their rosters. A move from the Ballpark in Arlington would certainly affect his numbers. Young hit .305/.362/.441 at home in 2008 – and just .264/.317/.364 on the road. In his career, his splits are: .322/.369/.480 at home, and .279/.323/.404 on the road.

The option of staying in Texas, though, may not be too appetizing either. The shortstop, who had his string of five 200+ hits seasons broken in 2008, has been asked (told?) by Texas to move to third base for the 2009 season in preparation for top prospect (and shortstop) Elvis Andrus. Young – who came up in the Jays system as a shortstop – previously moved from second base to shortstop at the Major League level to help fill the void left by Alex Rodriguez‘ departure from Texas.

Despite his .300 career batting average, Young does not have the power potential traditionally required at the hot corner. His career slugging percentage is .442 but it has been at .418 and .402 in the last two seasons. Young’s ISO has gone from .145 in 2006 to .103 in 2007 to .118 last season. Andrus, with a .073 ISO in 2008 at Double-A, will not help make up for lost power.

Defensively, the move may be wise. Considered a plus defender at shortstop in the minors, Young’s defence was overrated. He has steady hands and converts what he gets to, but his range is below average. At third base, he would have less ground to cover. In the last two seasons, Young has posted UZR rates of -10.1 and -3.9.

Young is also beginning the first year of an ill-advised, five-year contract that will pay him about $62 million (It was originally $80 million but some was handed out as a signing bonus, and some is deferred) despite the fact his overall value as a player – both offensively and defensively – is diminishing. That will make it very difficult for Texas to adhere to the shortstop’s wish for a trade – unless the organization eats a large portion of the contract.

The Los Angeles Dodgers organization has committed to a number of veteran infielders this off-season, including third baseman Casey Blake, shortstop Rafael Furcal, and second baseman Mark Loretta. There are a number of positives that can be taken from those acquisitions, but there are also three negatives: the loss of opportunities for promising young players Chin-Lung Hu, Blake DeWitt, and Tony Abreau.

Hu had a dismal season in Los Angeles in 2008 and he hit just .181/.252/.233 with an ISO of .052 in 116 at-bats. The Dodgers gave up way too quickly on the gifted fielder, who is just 24 years old. He has a solid minor league career line of .299/.344/.422 in more than 2,200 at-bats. Hu also had good bat and strike zone control. He had an overall contact rate of 82.8% and made contact in the strike zone at a rate of 92.9%. Even during his poor season his rates were 8.7 BB% and 19.8 K%, which suggests he was not over-matched. He could stand to get stronger though, with a line-drive rate of just 12%.

DeWitt was not supposed to be anywhere near the Major Leagues in 2008, but he spent just 27 games in the minor leagues. The remainder of his time was spent playing for the Dodgers and filling in admirably at both second base and third base. Despite being rushed, the now 23-year-old infielder hit .264/.344/.383 with an ISO of .120 in 368 at-bats. He posted rates of 10.9 BB% and 18.5 K%. He had a nice eye at the plate and only swung at pitches outside the strike zone 24% of the time. After slumping in June and July, DeWitt improved his game in late August and September and showed that he could make adjustments. The former first-round pick may not have set the world on fire in 2008 but he certainly deserved another shot in 2009.

Abreu missed all of 2008 after undergoing hip surgery in May. In 2007, at the age of 22, he made his MLB debut and hit .271/.309/.404 with an ISO of .133 in 166 at-bats. Abreu maintained that line despite a .301 BABIP. Defensively, he split time between second base, third base and even shortstop.

Of the three veteran signings, the Furcal move makes the most sense, followed by Loretta and then Blake. Furcal is only 31 and still has offensive potential – if he can stay healthy – but he does not utilize his speed like he used to in his prime. You have to worry a little bit about him pulling a Luis Castillo. Loretta, 37, is still a solid contributor and only signed a modest one-year contract. Blake has been consistent in the last few years but at 35 his time is running out and his three-year deal could look pretty bad in 2011.

With the expiration of Loretta’s contract for the 2010 season, DeWitt, Abreu or Hu may have the opportunity to secure another full-time big league gig, but there certainly won’t be room for all three. The Dodgers also have promising shortstop Ivan DeJesus, 21, who hit .324/.419/.423 in 463 Double-A at-bats in 2008.

Jimmy Rollins probably left many fantasy owners disappointed last year. He hit .277/.349/.437 with 11 homers and 47 steals in 137 games. Obviously, those are good numbers, but they are may be a little below what optimistic owners were expecting. What can we expect from Rollins in 2009?

Let’s start with batting average. Rollins hit .277 last year, after hitting .296, .277, .290 and .289 over the last four seasons, respectively. Rollins’s strikeout rate was actually the lowest of his career last season, as he struck out in only 9.9% of his at bats. Over the last five years, his K rate has hovered right around 10-12%. However, last season Rollins’s BABIP was .285, but his expected BABIP (according to a new model I introduced) was .323. If you add in those “missing” hits, Rollins’s batting average becomes .311.

Additionally, Rollins improved his walk rate in 2008 – he walked a career-high 9.4% of the time, the first time in his career that he was even over 8%. This led to the highest OBP of his career, despite the (relatively) low batting average. As a result, Rollins had more opportunities to steal bases. Furthermore, he stole bases at an incredibly efficient clip, getting caught just three times in 50 attempts; this continues a trend that began in 2005 – since (and including) that year, Rollins has been successful on 165 of his 184 stolen base attempts, an impressive 90% conversion rate.

Perhaps the most disappointing thing about Rollins’s 2008 was his power – or lack thereof. He totaled only 11 long balls, after hitting 55 over the previous two seasons combined. Part of the problem was that Rollins played in only 137 games in 2008, after having played in every single game in 2007 and 158 games in 2006. More of the problem appears to be the fact that Rollins stopped hitting fly balls – only 30.6% of his balls in play were fly balls in 2008. In 2007, Rollins hit fly balls 44.2% of the time, but that appears to be an outlier in his career: in the three seasons before 2007, his fly ball percentages were 36.9%, 32.1% and 35.8%.

His fly balls became homers at a lower rate in 2008 (7.7% of his fly balls left the park) than in the past two years (11.1% and 10.7%, respectively), but his career HR/FB is 8.8%. The biggest problem was Rollins reverting to his ground ball tendencies – an issue that could have to do with faulty mechanics and/or the sprained ankle that sent him to the DL in April (although I highly doubt a sprained ankle would sap a player of his power). However, it could simply be that Rollins’s 2007 season was a fluke in terms of fly balls – he hasn’t hit nearly as many fly balls in any other season.

If we assume that Rollins’s fly ball totals from 2007 were out of whack, so too must we assume that the 30 homers he hit that season are likely going to be a career high. It’s certainly possible that Rollins will regain some homers from his dismal 2008 year (dismal in terms of power production, that is), as his fly ball rate will probably rise somewhat, and he could see a slightly higher proportion of his fly balls leave the park. Still, an increase in these two areas would probably yield somewhere around 15-20 homers, maybe 25 (assuming Rollins stays healthy all season). As Rollins will be 30 years old next season, it’s quite likely that he won’t match his age with his homer total ever again.

However, even accounting for Rollins’s relative lack of homers, it appears that he improved his game in other facets this season – improvements that he may carry with him into next year. Rollins is still an incredibly efficient base stealer who also runs often, and this should continue next year. Furthermore, if Rollins can take his improved strikeout- and walk-rates with him into next season, he could see a rise in his batting average (remember, his batting average should have been .311 this year) and OBP, leading to more opportunities to steal bases and more runs scored atop a powerful Phillies lineup.

You shouldn’t draft Jimmy Rollins expecting 30 homers, but you can reasonably expect 15-20 bombs, and perhaps even a batting average of around .300 and upwards of 50-60 steals. That’s still a heck of a player, especially for a shortstop.

A supplemental first-round pick out of Stanford in 2005, Jed Lowrie had a disappointing season in the Hi-A Carolina League in 2006 and fell off the radar for most people. Even after a 2007 season in which he hit for average and power split between Double-A and Triple-A, he was not considered an impact player. Baseball America rated him as only the 73rd-best prospect coming into 2008.

But injuries at the major league level gave Lowrie a shot at regular playing time in Boston last year and he held his own in his first exposure to the big leagues. In late August, Lowrie had a .296/.366/.469 line after his first 52 games and 188 plate appearances. But a September swoon, perhaps as teams adjusted their scouting reports, dragged down his final numbers.

Lowrie was a shortstop in college and the minors but found himself switching between there and third base for the Red Sox in 2008, depending upon who was hurt at that time. As a shortstop, he batted .272/.360/.424 in 187 PA while as a 3B he posted a .239/.318/.359 line in 108 PA.

Now, those numbers are too small of a sample to draw any big conclusions from, but it should not surprise anyone that he hit better while playing at his natural position.

The Red Sox have Julio Lugo as their incumbent shortstop and the veteran is owed $18 million over the next two years. However, Lowrie in his brief stint showed strong signs of handling the position defensively, with a UZR/150 of 21 compared to -1.6 for Lugo.

Lowrie showed excellent patience at the plate and drew walks at an 11.9 percent rate. But his strikeout rate was unacceptable at 26.2 percent. Lowrie smacked a lot of line drives, which helped him to a .342 BABIP. He also piled up the line drives and high BABIP in the minors. It’s a nice package if Lowrie can get his strikeout rate down to 20 percent or lower.

Lowrie’s fantasy value is dependent on Boston trading Lugo elsewhere. He showed enough in 2008 for the club to consider the possibility but probably not enough to make it a priority.

Unless the Red Sox trade Lugo prior to the start of the season, Lowrie is not worth drafting in mixed leagues and is at best a late-round lottery ticket in AL-only leagues. But there is enough talent there that he merits following and he is someone who could provide solid production at a weak position if given a shot at the full-time job.

Ryan Theriot had a surprisingly good season, both in real and fantasy baseball. He hit a somewhat impressive .307/.387/.359, striking out 15 times less than he walked and stealing 22 bases (granted, he was caught 13 times). However, his season was fueled by an unsustainably high batting average, and if that BA regresses next season, he could hurt your fantasy team.

Theriot’s BABIP was .335 this year; however, his expected BABIP was a mere .291 (according to a new model I introduced). If we adjust his batting average to be in line with his expected BABIP, his BA falls all the way to .267. Considering that Theriot hits for virtually no power and drives in very few runs, this drop in BA would have a huge impact on his overall value.

The lower BA would result in a lower OBP, which would lead to fewer runs scored and fewer opportunities to steal bases. Additionally, Theriot was downright awful at stealing bases in 2008, getting caught in 37% of his attempts. Unless he improves upon this, it’s possible that the Cubs will become more reluctant to let him steal, depressing his stolen base total even further.

There is little evidence to suggest that the BABIP information about Theriot is incorrect. His career batting average in the minors was .271; his BABIP in the minors was .309. There’s no reason to think that either of these things has suddenly improved significantly, and there’s no reason to think that Theriot can consistently beat his expected BABIP (for reference, in 2007 his actual BABIP was .283 and his expected BABIP was .311).

Considering that nearly all of Theriot’s value revolves around his inflated batting average, it would be a good idea to avoid him in most fantasy drafts next season. That’s not to say he’ll be entirely without value, but just make sure you value him as a ~.270 hitter who may not even reach last year’s SB total, rather than a ~.310 hitter with the chance to surpass 30 steals.

One thing that fantasy players value in their picks is consistency. And for the past three seasons, Jose Reyes has been one of the most consistent players around. According to the RotoTimes Player Rater, Reyes has finished third, seventh and first among hitters in dollar values earned the past three seasons.

Some fantasy players shy away from Reyes because he does not hit a lot of HR or drive in a bunch of runs. But in the past four seasons, he has finished first three times and second once in the National League in SB. And he’s nearly as productive in runs, with Reyes notching two fourth-place finishes and a fifth in the NL the past three seasons.

And while Reyes will never find himself in the top 10 in HR, he does have solid pop for a leadoff hitter. He has averaged nearly 16 HR per season the past three years. Reyes is also good for an average in the .290 range.

And while it’s true that he is weak in RBIs, Reyes had 68 last year and has driven in as many as 81 in a season. So it’s nowhere near the black hole for a category that a slugger like Ryan Howard totaling one SB is.

Reyes is a top-five pick overall in any fantasy league. How high you draft him depends on personal preference in how you want to build your team. Some owners wouldn’t dream of taking him before Alex Rodriguez even though Reyes has out-performed A-Rod in two of the past three years and is eight years younger.

Steals is a category that gives lots of fantasy players trouble as many of the top base stealers are killers in other categories. Reyes brings a broad base of skills along with his speed and can single-handedly solve a team’s SB problems. Don’t worry about the power categories when you draft Reyes with your first pick. You can draw even with other teams in the next two rounds while still maintaining your SB edge.

The shortstop position is so weak in fantasy right now that Rafael Furcal, a player who has had his last two seasons marred by injury and one who enters the season carrying some seriously bad karma, is a top five player at the position.

Furcal missed most of last season with a back injury but when he was healthy he played extremely well. He had a .357/.439/.573 line in 164 plate appearances. Back injuries can be chronic but with at least four teams – A’s, Braves, Dodgers and Giants – actively pursuing Furcal in the off-season, one has to assume the medical reports are good.

In his last healthy season in 2006, Furcal notched a .300-15-63 line with 113 Runs and 37 SB. Neither Bill James nor Marcel project him to come anywhere close to that line in 2009. And in addition to a decline in his rate stats, they both see a player with serious playing time issues – not surprising for either system.

To properly value Furcal, first each fantasy player is going to have to decide how much playing time they feel comfortable assigning to him. In his nine seasons in the majors, he has topped the 150-game plateau just four times. So even if you are bullish on Furcal coming into the year, it’s just not realistic to assume 150 games.

Furcal benefited greatly from a high BABIP and HR/FB rate in his abbreviated 2008. But the rest of his batted ball profile was right around his career average. Also, his plate discipline showed marked improvement in his limited playing time last year. Furcal had his highest BB% since his rookie season and his K% was less than his BB% for the first time in his career.

There is risk surrounding Furcal but a fantasy team without risk is unlikely to be a challenger for the top spot. In a top-heavy position, Furcal offers owners their best chance to acquire high-end production at a lower cost. Last year Michael Young and Derek Jeter each delivered approximately $14 of value. I would rather have Furcal than either of those players in 2009.