It isn’t a huge transaction; it probably went by largely unnoticed. The Toronto Blue Jays claimed middle reliever T.J. Beam off waivers from the Pirates yesterday and designated former No. 1 draft pick Russ Adams for assignment.

Adams was originally drafted by the Jays in 2002, which was also the first draft by the organization while under control of current general manager J.P. Ricciardi, who was hired – in part – for his reputation as an excellent talent evaluator. He is also known in some circles for having a rather large ego, so it’s not surprising that the organization actually held on to Adams much longer than it should have.

Adams had a solid career at the University of North Carolina and looked like a scrappy player who would hit for average and steal a ton of bases. Unfortunately, steals were not a part of the Jays’ offensive approach at the time so that aspect of his game was almost immediately snuffed out. In his final college season, Adams hit .370 and stole 45 bases in just 63 games. He also walked 52 times with 19 strikeouts.

In his first taste of pro ball, Adams stole 18 bases and walked 42 times in 67 games between short-season ball and High-A. By 2004 he had received a brief call-up to the Majors and hit .304. Adams then spent all of 2005 at shortstop for the Jays and hit .256/.325/.383. He stole just 11 bases and his defense was shaky, due to a weak throwing arm.

During the course of the next two seasons, Adams struggled with his defence and was bounced around the diamond. His batting also suffered, no doubt in part due to his problems in the field. In 2008, he did not even sniff the Majors. Adams was left to rot in Triple-A and he played a variety of positions, including the outfield. He did not set the world on fire with his bat, but he hit .259/.341/.417 with 11 stolen bases and showed a little more pop than he had in the past with 15 home runs. In the last two seasons, his ISO has hovered around .150, which isn’t too bad for a middle infielder.

Adams needs a change of scenery. He was designated for assignment, which means if he clears waivers, Adams will remain in the system if the Jays don’t release or trade him. For his sake, and for Fantasy owners, I hope he does find his way to another organization that will give him a shot as a second baseman or a utility player. Adams could be a nice sleeper source of steals (finally free from the Toronto Stop Signs) and could even provide a little power in single leagues. His average could rebound too, with the change of scenery and outlook; his strikeouts have risen a bit with the increase in power, but he still had a walk rate of 11.2 BB% in 2008.

Obviously, you don’t want to take Adams on Draft Day. But tuck his name away and monitor the situation. If he ends up somewhere like San Diego that will give him a fair shot – and let him run – then Adams could end helping you at some point during the 2009 Fantasy Season.

With spring training almost here, it also means that Fantasy Baseball season is heating up. If you’re looking for some great advice throughout the season (as well as the pre-season), be sure to check out John Burnson’s Heater Magazine, which provides weekly statistical analysis from some of the smartest minds from across the Internet. The magazine is introducing a new, weekly feature this spring called Radar Tracking, which helps track each team’s moves and ever-changing rosters and player roles to help you prepare for the 2009 Fantasy Baseball season. Each team is being analyzed by writers and bloggers who regularly follow the clubs – quite a few FanGraphs writers have contributed to John’s projects lately. Here is a sneak peek at some of the first week’s Radar Tracking.

In his third season in the majors last year, Dan Uggla set career marks in HR (32) and RBIs (92) and re-gained 15 points in average that he lost from the year before. It would appear that Uggla is on a fantasy upswing but there are just enough warning signs to make owners leery about investing too much in him.

Uggla has an ADP of 59 according to the latest numbers at Mock Draft Central, making him a late fifth-round pick and putting him in the second tier of second baseman along with Alexei Ramirez and possibly Robinson Cano.

But Uggla hit under .200 versus LHP last year and continued a career pattern of fading in the second half of the season. In 2008, Uggla had a .739 OPS after the All-Star break, compared to a .978 mark before it. Major League pitchers fed Uggla a steady diet of off-speed pitches. He saw a fastball on just 50.2 percent of his at-bats last year, the second-lowest mark in the majors.

Ordinarily, these numbers would not mean too much. But in the off-season, the Marlins acquired Emilio Bonifacio, a speedy second baseman with an excellent defensive reputation. Uggla’s reputation in the field is not good (although defensive metrics show a big improvement in 2008) and his performance in the All-Star game certainly didn’t help any.

There have been all kinds of rumors about what Florida plans to do with its infield, with speculation having one or the other between Uggla and Bonifacio moving to the hot corner.

Either way, it seems unlikely that the Marlins acquired Bonifacio to be a bench player. How will Uggla react if he has to switch positions? If Bonifacio opens the season as a super-sub, will the Marlins keep Uggla on a short leash if he gets off to a slow start? How will Uggla’s arbitration case with the team affect his status?

It seems silly to have to worry about a player who has averaged 30 HR a season for his three years in the majors. But the Marlins have not been embracing Uggla here in the off-season. Besides the trade for Bonifacio, they refused to even consider a long-term contract for Uggla, despite his desire to team up with Hanley Ramirez as the team’s double play combo for years to come.

These concerns can be dismissed as idle speculation. But when it comes to a high draft pick, it seems unnecessarily risky to spend a fifth-round pick on a guy about whom his current team seems to be lukewarm.

Continuing our series of lucky/unlucky players, today we take a look at the other side of the coin: the players who benefited from great luck on their batted balls in play. In this series, I’ll refer you to Peter Bendix and Chris Dutton’s insightful article on the role of luck/skill on BABIP. In it they define BABIP with the following formula:

BABIP= (H-HR)/(PA-BB-HBP-HR-K)

They also formulate a new version of xBABIP that takes into account a number of components of the hitter and models the way their BIP should be converted to outs/hits.

Last year Ryan Theriot had his best season as a big-leaguer. He was at worst a decent play at SS in most fantasy formats, and a very good play in 5×5 formats. He hit for a good average, got steals, and played a pretty scarce position (with a lots of flexibility). His average on the year was .308, he got 22 steals, and scored 85 runs. Among SS he was second in average, 9th in runs scored, and 4th in SBs (his numbers aren’t quite as good compared to 2B/3B, but the flexibility is helpful). Looking at these numbers it’s hard to argue against Theriot as a average-to-above-average SS. The one hidden aspect of his success, though, is his reliance on luck to achieve his numbers.

Since Theriot doesn’t hit for much power (IsoP of only .052 with 1 HR), most of his value is derived from his ability to get on-base. Since he can’t drive himself in or steal first he has to walk or get a hit to get the steals and runs your fantasy team needs. Last year Theriot coupled a good BB-rate, relatively low K-rate, and extraordinary luck to get on base at a .387 clip. Where does the extraordinary luck come from? Well, Theriot had a BABIP of .330 and an xBABIP of .291. If we account for this “luck” and control his statistics for the hits he “earned,” then his statistical record has an astonishingly different look.

Rather than a slash-line of .307/.387/.359/.745, his slash line is a more pedestrian .266/.348/.309/.657. The loss of 24 hits or 24 trips to the base-paths hurts his two other good categories, as well. His R and SB drop from 85/22 to 77/20. This season wouldn’t make Cubs fans or Theriot’s owners (if he even has any at that point) very happy. I would expect something a lot closer to these numbers for Theriot next year than the numbers he put up this year.

The Los Angeles Dodgers organization has committed to a number of veteran infielders this off-season, including third baseman Casey Blake, shortstop Rafael Furcal, and second baseman Mark Loretta. There are a number of positives that can be taken from those acquisitions, but there are also three negatives: the loss of opportunities for promising young players Chin-Lung Hu, Blake DeWitt, and Tony Abreau.

Hu had a dismal season in Los Angeles in 2008 and he hit just .181/.252/.233 with an ISO of .052 in 116 at-bats. The Dodgers gave up way too quickly on the gifted fielder, who is just 24 years old. He has a solid minor league career line of .299/.344/.422 in more than 2,200 at-bats. Hu also had good bat and strike zone control. He had an overall contact rate of 82.8% and made contact in the strike zone at a rate of 92.9%. Even during his poor season his rates were 8.7 BB% and 19.8 K%, which suggests he was not over-matched. He could stand to get stronger though, with a line-drive rate of just 12%.

DeWitt was not supposed to be anywhere near the Major Leagues in 2008, but he spent just 27 games in the minor leagues. The remainder of his time was spent playing for the Dodgers and filling in admirably at both second base and third base. Despite being rushed, the now 23-year-old infielder hit .264/.344/.383 with an ISO of .120 in 368 at-bats. He posted rates of 10.9 BB% and 18.5 K%. He had a nice eye at the plate and only swung at pitches outside the strike zone 24% of the time. After slumping in June and July, DeWitt improved his game in late August and September and showed that he could make adjustments. The former first-round pick may not have set the world on fire in 2008 but he certainly deserved another shot in 2009.

Abreu missed all of 2008 after undergoing hip surgery in May. In 2007, at the age of 22, he made his MLB debut and hit .271/.309/.404 with an ISO of .133 in 166 at-bats. Abreu maintained that line despite a .301 BABIP. Defensively, he split time between second base, third base and even shortstop.

Of the three veteran signings, the Furcal move makes the most sense, followed by Loretta and then Blake. Furcal is only 31 and still has offensive potential – if he can stay healthy – but he does not utilize his speed like he used to in his prime. You have to worry a little bit about him pulling a Luis Castillo. Loretta, 37, is still a solid contributor and only signed a modest one-year contract. Blake has been consistent in the last few years but at 35 his time is running out and his three-year deal could look pretty bad in 2011.

With the expiration of Loretta’s contract for the 2010 season, DeWitt, Abreu or Hu may have the opportunity to secure another full-time big league gig, but there certainly won’t be room for all three. The Dodgers also have promising shortstop Ivan DeJesus, 21, who hit .324/.419/.423 in 463 Double-A at-bats in 2008.

Fans and athletes alike enjoy playing the “no one believed” card. Most of the time it’s garbage but in the case of Dustin Pedroia perhaps there’s something there. Fans and analysts have been looking for reasons to doubt him for years and Pedroia just keeps exceeding all expectations.

In 2005, Pedroia tore up Double-A (.324/.409/.508) but struggled when he was promoted to Triple-A. Rather than recognize that he played the end of the season with a wrist injury, people doubted. In 2006, Pedroia played well in Triple-A (.305/.384/.426) but hit under .200 in 81 at-bats for Boston. So the doubts lingered.

So, in 2007 Pedroia puts up a .317/.380/.442 line in the majors and wins the Rookie of the Year. Then for an encore, he goes out and puts up a .326/.376/.493 line and wins the AL MVP. Surely now, everyone must be convinced that this is a player who makes adjustments and adapts to the level of his competition, right?

Our own Matthew Carruth wrote about Pedroia, “Even with the regression that should come on his bat next year…”

Now, Matthew is a lot smarter than me. And if someone as accomplished as he thinks that Pedroia will regress noticeably in 2009, that is a pretty good indication of where smart money is on this subject.

To buttress Matthew’s position, according to the RotoTimes Player Rater, Pedroia was the 12th-best fantasy hitter last year, putting up a dollar value of $31.68 in 2008. In other words, there’s not much room for continued improvement.

But none of Pedroia’s peripherals seem to be outrageous. Yes, he made a 42-point jump in his isolated slugging but his .167 mark ranked 85th in the majors. Yes, he more than doubled his HR output but neither his FB% (36 percent) nor his HR/FB (7.8 percent) are anywhere close to putting him on the first page of the FanGraph’s Leaderboards. Yes, Pedroia had a .336 BABIP last year but he had a .334 mark in the category the year before.

We make snap judgments about people all of the time. It’s one of the ways we make sense of the world. Pedroia is listed here as 5-foot-9 and he appears even smaller in person. He plays hard. We see small, white and scrappy and our snap judgment is that Pedroia should be like David Eckstein, he of the lifetime .361 slugging percentage.

Because few complained or predicted regression when 6-foot-1 Chase Utley upped his ISO 47 points from .202 to .249, did they? Utley’s a big guy and no one is surprised when a big guy displays power. Plus Utley did this going from age 25 to 26, when improvement is a reasonable thing to expect.

Pedroia had his ISO leap from age 23 to 24.

Anyway, a lot of things went right for Pedroia last year and it would not be a surprise to see a drop in last year’s numbers. At the very least, he could pull an Ian Kinsler and come down with an injury and miss 35 games. But what player who has only been in the majors for two seasons could we not say that about?

This could be the last year to get Pedroia at a bargain. That is because if he puts up a season like 2008 again, everyone will see it as a trend and not a fluke and act accordingly in the future. The bottom line is Pedroia is a great baseball player and someone you want on your fantasy team.

In the first half of 2008, Ian Kinsler was in the discussion for the most valuable fantasy player, as he posted a .337-14-58-84-23 line. But in the second half of the season, two things happened to Kinsler that seem to happen pretty often. His production took a nosedive and he got hurt.

In 131 plate appearances after the break, Kinsler had a .258/.300/.417 line, which was 228 points of OPS lower than his total from the first half. In his three-year career in the majors, Kinsler has an .891 OPS before the All-Star break and a .755 mark afterwards. Many analysts dismiss splits, especially those involving pre and post All-Star break. But given that Kinsler has shown this for three straight years, perhaps it should be given some extra weight. The heat in Texas can do strange things to ballplayers.

That brings us to injuries. Kinsler’s 2008 season ended when he suffered a sports hernia. In 2007 he missed significant time due to a foot injury. And his rookie season was cut short thanks to a thumb injury. He has yet to play more than 130 games in a season.

Kinsler is in the discussion for top fantasy second baseman due to his power-speed combo. With the uncertainty surrounding Chase Utley, he might even be the first player from the position drafted. Kinsler reported no lingering issues from the surgery and is expected healthy for the start of Spring Training.

But before you spend a high pick on Kinsler, remember that injury history. Some fantasy players will take Kinsler’s 2008 stats and pro-rate them over a full season. That’s a dangerous thing to do given his history. Even with the injury, Kinsler was a top 20 fantasy hitter last year. Expecting him to improve significantly on that seems extra risky, especially once you factor in last year’s .339 BABIP, which was 27 points above his career average.

With the versatile Mark DeRosa headed to Cleveland for a trio of minor league arms (Jeff Stevens, Chris Archer and John Gaub), there may be competition for the second base position in the Windy City. The Cubs brought in a “Proven Veteran” to hold down the job (more on him later), but the club’s best bet to replace DeRosa at the keystone was already on the roster: Mike Fontenot.

Originally a 21st-round pick by the Tampa Bay Devil Rays in the 1999 amateur draft, Fontenot decided to attend Louisiana State University instead of signing with Tampa. Teaming with Ryan Theriot, the lefty-swinging Fontenot enjoyed a successful collegiate career which improved his draft stock dramatically. After leading the Tigers to the 2000 College World Series, Fontenot was plucked by the Baltimore Orioles with the 19th overall selection in the 2001 draft. He endured a lukewarm first season in 2002 (.264/.333/.364 in 481 AB at High-A Frederick), but turned in a solid campaign at AA Bowie in 2003 (.325/.399/.481 in 449 AB).

Following a so-so season at AAA Ottawa in 2004 (.279/.346/.420 in 524 AB), Fontenot was shipped to the North Siders, along with Jerry Hairston Jr. and Dave Crouthers, in exchange for Sammy Sosa. Unfortunately for the Orioles, Sosa’s goose was cooked (he would turn in a sub-replacement level performance in his only season in Baltimore). Fontenot, meanwhile, bided his time in AAA during the ’05 and ’06 seasons before finally getting some major league playing time over the past two years.

In about a full-season’s worth of plate appearances, the diminutive second baseman has posted a .290/.369/.457 line, with a 10.8 BB% and a 19.6% whiff rate. Despite receiving just 284 PA last season, Fontenot was about 16 runs above average with the bat, posting a .395 wOBA.

When evaluating Fontenot, it is important to keep in mind that we have a relatively small sample size in terms of projecting his future performance. As such, Marcel isn’t as useful for a player like this (as evidenced by his 0.67 REL score; there’s just not a whole lot of data to go on). For what it’s worth, Marcel projects Fontenot to post a .355 wOBA in 2009. Let’s be pessimistic and pare that figure down to .345. If the 5-8, 170 pounder were to get regular playing time (let’s say, 600 PA), he would be about 5.2 runs above average with the bat.

Compare that to the fellow whom the Cubs just inked to a questionable two-year, $4.9 million deal: Aaron Miles. The 32 year-old posted a decent .331 wOBA in 2008, but that performance was fueled by a .343 BABIP figure: Miles was more or less than same slappy hitter who rarely walks (career 5.6 BB%) and does not drive the ball (.076 ISO). Marcel projects Miles to post a .308 wOBA in ’09. Over 600 PA, that comes out to about -14.1 runs compared to an average hitter. Clearly, Fontenot is the superior batsman.

It stands to reason, then, that Chicago feels as though Miles’ defensive work makes up the difference. However, it’s pretty difficult to find justification on that front either. Caveat emptor again on the sample size, but Fontenot has posted a 12.4 UZR/150 at second base thus far. Let’s again be pessimistic and halve that number, making Fontenot a +6.2 defender per 150 games. That figure is still well ahead of Miles, who has a career -3.5 UZR/150 at second. Even if we take his marks over the past three years (admittedly better than his career work) and weigh them accordingly, Miles comes out as a +1 run defender. So, Let’s tally up the scores of our second base contestants…

Fontenot
+ 5.2 hitting
+6.2 fielding
+ 2.5 position adjustment
+20 replacement level

= 33.9 Runs Above Replacement, 3.4 WAR

Miles
-14.1 hitting
+1 fielding
+2.5 position adjustment
+20 replacement level

= 9.4 Runs Above Replacement, 0.94 WAR

Using these projections, Fontenot bests Miles by nearly two and a half wins. Even if you think that Fontenot’s numbers are still too optimistic and Miles’ too low, it’s exceedingly difficult to close that wide of a gap. Fontenot is without question the better hitter, and it seems likely that his glove will help out the pitching staff more than Miles’ would to boot.

Fantasy owners will want to watch Chicago’s second base situation closely. If the Cubs make the right choice, Mike Fontenot could be a fairly valuable commodity as an up-the-middle player with decent on-base skills and a little more sock than one might think. In a battle between “scrappy” middle infielders, this one really isn’t that close.

Brian Roberts is a three-category fantasy star at a tough defensive position. While he does not have the cachet of playing for the World Series winner, like Chase Utley, or as his league’s reigning MVP, like Dustin Pedroia, Roberts is one of the elite 2B available. A top-notch contributor at AVG, R and SB, Roberts has turned in five straight seasons in which he’s made fantasy players happy.

The only warning sign around Roberts is his age. He turned 31 in October, which is not generally old for baseball players but is for 2B. For every player like Jeff Kent, who retained excellent production past 35, one could name several elite players at the position who lost fantasy relevance at an early age. Roberto Alomar had his last big season at age 33. Carlos Baerga peaked at 26. Steve Sax was done at 31. And just in case you want more examples, how about Edgardo Alfonzo, Glenn Beckert, Dave Cash, Delino DeShields, Marcus Giles, Tom Herr, Chuck Knoblauch, Harold Reynolds, Juan Samuel and Robby Thompson – all former All Stars who lost effectiveness early.

On the plus side, Roberts posted his highest AVG/OB/SLG marks since his standout 2005 season. Additionally, his BB% remains strong at 11.8 percent. On the flip side Roberts’ K% of 17 percent in 2008 was the highest of his career. Roberts hit 18 HR in 2005 but fell to single digits last year. And with a HR/FB% of 4.9 percent, owners should not expect a big rebound in that category.

Roberts has always been a strong performer in BABIP (lifetime mark of .320) but his .345 was tied for 14th-best in the majors last year.

In 2008, Roberts was a Top 30 fantasy hitter. While I don’t expect a collapse, I think it is wise to knock him down a bit due to last year’s high BABIP and his advancing age at a position at which players generally do not age gracefully.

It was shaping up as a disappointing season for Kelly Johnson in 2008 until a strong September. After three straight months of hitting .250 or less, Johnson posted a 22-game hitting streak in the season’s final month, which led to a .398/.429/.643 line over his final 106 plate appearances. That final surge rescued his overall numbers and his fantasy season and he finished as a top 10 second baseman.

But should a .450 BABIP in September cloud our judgment on what happened the other five months of the season?

The biggest thing about Johnson’s year was the collapse of his walk rate. Seemingly taking a page out of Jeff Francoeur’s book, Johnson swung at 7.6 percent more pitches in 2008 than the previous year and most of those were pitches outside the zone. His O-Swing % jumped from 18.4 percent to 25.6 percent. And that led to his BB% dropping from 13.2 to 8.7 percent.

So, even though Johnson added 11 points to his batting average, his on-base percentage fell 26 points – no easy task. His ISO also dropped 21 points. Interestingly, he saw his K% actually fall despite swinging at more bad pitches. But if we look at Francoeur, we notice the same pattern unfolding during his career in Atlanta.

Also like Francouer, Johnson has seen his HR/FB rates fall. The more aggressive Johnson posted a 7.6 HR/FB% in 2008, a rate which matched his IFFB%.

The saving grace for Johnson was his LD%. He finished tied for fifth in the majors with a 24.7 percent line drive rate. Not surprisingly, that helped Johnson to a .344 BABIP, the 16th-best mark in the majors.

Both Bill James and Marcel predict a rebound year for Johnson in 2009. Both projection systems see him getting his BB% back into double digits with subsequent increases in both his OBP and SLG.

There is certainly reason for optimism surrounding Johnson coming into 2009. The hot September and the season-long line drive rates are two positive markers. But the combination of the falling walk rate combined with the uptick in swinging at pitches outside the zone is just too much to ignore.

There was a big drop-off in production from second basemen after Johnson and Placido Polanco, who each returned over $11 in 2008. After those two the next most valuable at the position was Kaz Matsui, at a little over $5. Given the uncertainty over Johnson’s performance – do you really want to count on another month with a .450 BABIP? – bidding a double-digit salary seems a very risky move.

So…when exactly is Rickie Weeks going to break out?

Weeks has a tremendous amount of tools and has shown flashes of brilliance during his time in the majors. However, Weeks doesn’t appear to be improving.

Weeks hit .234/.342/.398 this year, following up a 2007 in which he hit .235/.374/.433. He also added 14 homers and 19 steals (in 24 attempts).

The low batting average is a source of frustration to many fantasy owners. Both last year and this year, Weeks suffered from a bit of bad luck: according to my new-fangled BABIP model, Weeks’s expected BABIPs over the last two years have been .321 and .294, while his actual BABIPs have been .289 and .280, respectively. However, in 2006, his actual BABIP exceeded his xBABIP, so there’s no reason to think that the system is underrating Weeks.

However, even adjusting for his lost hits doesn’t bring Weeks’ batting average much above .250. He did manage to lower his strikeout rate this year – he struck out in 24.2% of his at bats this year, as compared to 28.4% last year, but the reason for this appears to be simply that he was making contact with more bad pitches, rather than becoming more choosy at the plate. He actually increased the number of pitches out of the strike zone that he swung at in 2008. Opposing pitchers took advantage of this by throwing Weeks a steady diet of offspeed pitches – just over 44% of the pitches Weeks saw were offspeed.

Although he possesses good raw power, Weeks has still not translated that power into large numbers of home runs. Part of the problem is that he hits many of his balls in play on the ground – only 38.7% of his balls in play were fly balls this year. This, combined with a high number of strikeouts, limits the amount of balls that have the chance to leave the park.

Finally, Weeks is getting to the point where he’s not young anymore. He turned 26 last September, and has yet to make good on his considerable talent. The raw talent is still there, but the chances of him capitalizing on that grow slimmer every year. He still has the chance to become an elite offensive second basemen, but there is no statistical evidence that he’s improving. Draft Weeks expecting similar numbers next season – perhaps a few more homers and a slightly higher batting average. There is a non-zero chance that Weeks could break out, but the chances are not great.