First off, full disclosure: this is a mailbag-inspired piece and Eric/OR should get his credit. He asked a good question, and it deserves some attention.

Who will be better from here on out this season, Elvis Andrus or Emmanuel Burriss?

First, let’s look at all the things this diminutive middle infielders have in common. They both weigh under 190 pounds, they both make their living in the middle infield and own shortstop eligibility in most leagues, and they are both fleet of foot. Okay, enough of the obvious, because the similarities run much deeper.

Check out their batted ball statistics. Burriss features a 19.8% line drive percentage, a 58% groundball percentage, and a 22% fly ball percentage. Andrus? How about 19.5%, 58.5%, and 22% respectively.

It gets even crazier when you start looking at their approach to the strike zone. They both make great contact inside the zone – consider Andrus’ 93.5% contact percentage in the zone, and Burriss’ career 92.8% number. Andrus reaches a little more than you’d like from a table setter (25.2% O-Swing %), and hey, Burriss has that same fault (24.8%). Both could walk more (Andrus – 5.8% BB%; Burriss – 7.3%), but a good walk rate does not a good batting average make.

No, their speed and good contact in the zone seems to presage that these players will put up decent batting averages in the future, if only because they’ve done so before. Given their skills, their high-ish BABIPs shouldn’t be too worrisome (Andrus – .309; Burriss – .326).

ZiPS, at first, seems to predict the same regression for both, though the reason for the regression is not immediately clear. Andrus owns a rest of season projection of .249/.304/.428 with 26 steals, and Burriss has a projection of .256/.312/.301 with 27 steals.

That slugging percentage is where the twins begin to separate a little more. The doubles and triples that Andrus has on Burriss will be valuable in many leagues (8 combined for Andrus, five doubles and no triples for Burriss). On the other hand, don’t count on home runs from Andrus – an 11% HR/FB percentage is not sustainable when you’re only hitting 22% of your balls in the air.

If there is a difference between the two, it just might be found in their slugging percentage, their BABIPs and in their differing strikeout percentages (Andrus – 13.1%; Burriss – 16.9%). Strikeouts are negatively correlated with batting average, and Burriss’ also has a little farther to fall because of his higher BABIP. Give a slight edge to Andrus for his lower strikeout rate, lower BABIP, and higher slugging percentage.

Any edge that you’d like give Burriss for his 300 extra plate appearances might disappear depending on your opinion of the 4-component speed score. While he had elite totals in the minors (7.8 and 7.7 in A ball), his 4.1 this year is dwarfed by Andrus’ 7.3 (despite only topping 7.0 in the minors once).

Though they seemed like twins to begin, Andrus looks to have slight edges in some key categories. The improving lineup around Andrus is the final nail in the coffin. Don’t bet against Elvis.

As former RotoGraphs scribe Peter Bendix noted this past offseason, Brewers second baseman Rickie Weeks has been breaking baseball hearts for years. The 2nd overall pick out of Southern University back in 2003, Weeks crushed minor league pitching to the tune of .289/.387/.493, including a gargantuan 2005 season at AAA Nashville (.320/.435/.655) that earned him a spot in the big leagues that June. A powerfully built right-handed hitter with a Sheffield-like bat waggle and quick wrists, Weeks looked like he should have hit the ground running.

That 2005 big league campaign wasn’t awe-inspiring (.328 wOBA, .239/.333/.394), but Weeks drew walks at a 10% clip as a 22 year-old, while posting a respectable .156 ISO. His 2006 season (interrupted by a wrist injury) looked superficially better (.344 wOBA), but his .279/.363/.404 line was mostly the product of a .355 BABIP (.291 in 2005). In terms of working the count (7.7 BB%) and hitting for power (.125 ISO), the second baseman actually took a step back.

Then came an exciting 2007 season which again conjured up hope that Weeks would make good on his star prospect status. Although he again dealt with a wrist malady (and was actually optioned to the minors in early August), his wOBA climbed to .365. Weeks drew a free pass a robust 16% of the time with a .189 ISO, leading to a .235/.374/.433 showing. He absolutely clobbered the ball in the second half of the season, with a .903 OPS (.720 in the first half).

So, the stage was set for Weeks to bust out. Except, he didn’t. He wasn’t bad, mind you, with a near league-average wOBA of .334. He still worked the count well (12.2 BB%), but he didn’t show quite as much pop (.164 ISO). His Line Drive% was just 15.1. Injuries continued to bother Weeks as well (a sore left knee and a left thumb this time). Combine the mildly disappointing lumber with an improved-but-still-iron glove and a tendency to get nicked up, and Weeks was beginning to look like just another guy.

In 2009, however, the 26 year-old is finally thumping opposing pitchers like many scouts projected. With 9 dingers and a .257 ISO in 153 PA, Weeks has a .377 wOBA that ranks 8th among second basemen. The 5-11, 210 pounder has been a little more aggressive in ’09, chasing 23.4% of pitches thrown outside of the strike zone (19.6% career average). His walk rate (6.7%) and P/PA (3.8 in ’09, compared to 4.2 in 2007 and 4.1 in 2008) also reflect a less restrained approach. Weeks is also lofting the ball more often (43.8 FB%, 37.1 career average) and his line drive rate has rebounded (19%). His K rate, always rather lofty, is largely unchanged (25% in ’09, 26.2% career).

Weeks’ BABIP (.323) is perhaps a little higher than one might anticipate, but his power stroke should be here to stay. When not hampered with hand injuries, Weeks has shown the ability to drive the ball. The updated ZiPS projections on our player pages (which blend preseason projections with early-season performances) show Weeks posting a .262/.353/.462 line, good for a .360 wOBA. That checks in as the 8th-best forecast among second baseman. We’ve waited on Weeks for years, but perhaps that patience will finally be rewarded.

The Florida Marlins club has recalled its top middle infield prospect. Second baseman Chris Coghlan, who can also play third base, was brought up when right-hander Anibal Sanchez was placed on the disabled list with a shoulder injury. The former supplemental first round pick out of the University of Mississippi in 2006 had been playing at Triple-A. He was hitting .344/.418/.552 with three homers and nine stolen bases in 96 at-bats.

Coghlan will likely see more time at third base rather than second, due to the presence of Dan Uggla at the keystone. As well, the Marlins’ current third baseman – Emilio Bonifacio – has been struggling recently after a scorching start to the season. Long term, though, Coghlan could afford the cost-conscious Marlins the luxury of trading Uggla (who has impressive power but poor defense) for much-needed inexpensive pitching depth.

Coghlan’s best position is second base due to his offensive profile, which includes average power at best. The left-handed batter slammed a career high 12 home runs in 2007 at the A-ball level. He hit just seven last year in Double-A, with an ISO of .130. Eventually, the 23 year old projects to be a 10-15 home run hitter. Although he is not a burner on the base paths, Coghlan has good speed and is a smart runner with 30 stolen base potential.

Sanchez’ injury also impacts the Marlins as it significantly damages the pitching depth for the big club, with starter Andrew Miller aleady on the DL. Sanchez is expected to be out about two months after his shoulder acted up this week (He had labrum surgery in 2007). Look for reliever Burke Badenhop to move from the bullpen to the rotation. The right-hander has been pitching in the bullpen for the Marlins. In five games, he had a 3.63 FIP with 10 hits and three walks in nine innings. Last season, the 26-year-old appeared in 13 games for the big club and made eight starts. He posted a 6.08 ERA (5.10 FIP) and allowed 55 hits and 21 walks in 47.1 innings. Badenhop has the ceiling of a No. 4 or 5 starter and his fastball has been missing a couple miles per hour this season over last.

Pssssst…. Don’t tell Houston but it’s not 2007 anymore. You might also want to avoid telling the organization that it has officially fallen to the 31st worst minor league system in all of Major League Baseball. I’m not sure who No. 30 is now, but it’s definitely not Houston.

In a (polite edit) move, the organization sent second-base prospect Drew Sutton to the Cincinnati Reds as the player-to-be-named in the Jeff Keppinger trade. Now to be fair, I am probably one of the biggest Sutton fans around. As well, though, I have always been a big proponent for Keppinger. But come on… Really? The club’s best (only?) middle-infield prospect – whom I had ranked as the club’s second-best prospect overall – for a veteran utility infielder that hit .266/.310/.346 in 459 at-bats during the 2008 season? The Astros organization apparently thinks it’s acquiring the infielder that hit .332 in 241 at-bats during the 2007 season. With a BABIP of .335 in 2007 and .275 in 2008, Keppinger’s talent level is probably somewhere in between his two most recent seasons.

Maybe Houston just likes small sample sizes. Keppinger is scorching the ball with a .467 average this season in the Majors, while Sutton is struggling at .267 in five Triple-A games. After all, what can we learn by looking at Sutton’s 2008 season? He hit just .317/.408/.523 with 102 runs scored, 39 doubles, 20 homers, and 20 steals in 520 Double-A at-bats. Sutton, a switch-hitter, also posted rates of 12.8 BB% and 18.9 K%. Houston’s Double-A club plays in a pretty good hitter’s league, but the 25-year-old infielder then hit .315/.426/.611 with seven homers in 108 at-bats during the Arizona Fall League.

No, Sutton is probably not going to be a perennial All-Star at the Major League level. He may top out as a utility player not unlike Mr. Keppinger. However, he has the potential to be much, much more. But Houston either does not see that, or understand how that might be more valuable than a dime-a-dozen, established utility player with limited defensive skills whose value lies in hitting southpaws (.354 career vs .261). At the end of the day, it’s yet another questionable move for Houston, which has a laughable minor league system. And the Cincinnati Reds organization continues to overflow with minor league talent and depth.

With incumbent second baseman Alexei Ramirez shifting to shortstop for 2009, the keystone will be home to rookie Chris Getz this season. The 25-year-old prospect will not offer as much power at the position as Ramirez did, but he still brings a lot to the table.

In 2008, Getz hit .302/.366/.448 with 11 homers and 11 stolen bases in 404 Triple-A at-bats. He also posted rates of 9.2 BB% and 13.1 K%. In 10 games with the White Sox, Getz hit .286. Originally selected out of the University of Michigan in the fourth round of the 2005 draft, the left-handed hitter put together a career minor league average of .286. This spring, he held off challenges for the position from Brent Lillibridge (acquired from Atlanta) and Jayson Nix (a former Colorado prospect). Getz has hit well with a line of .317/.388/.433 with six walks, six strikeouts and four stolen bases in 60 at-bats.

The White Sox system does not have a surefire second base prospect coming up behind Getz, so the job should be his for awhile, unless he struggles mightily. Long term, though, he projects as more of a utility player who can play all over the infield and even in the outfield.

Lillibridge could see time at second base as well this season. The White Sox club may also rely on him as a utility player who can fill in all over the field, including the outfield. He’s done OK this spring by hitting .275 but he’s walked just once in 69 at-bats. Lillibridge has also accumulated 23 strikeouts, so his approach does not really work with his skill set, which is based on speed.

Nix had a good shot at the second base job for Chicago, after opening 2008 as the Rockies’ starting second baseman. Unfortunately he hit just .125 in 22 games and was demoted to the minors. Nix signed on with White Sox as a free agent this past off-season and was hitting .462 in 13 at-bats before straining his quad. Once he comes of the DL, he’ll have to work his way back into the picture by playing well in Triple-A.

Earlier today, we examined the man who anchors the keystone for the Angels, Howie Kendrick. As an awfully liberal swinger, the 25 year-old is an interesting study. A reader brought up what I find to be a fascinating bit of information regarding Kendrick’s BABIP splits: he has a significantly higher BABIP on flyballs than the average hitter.

Ordinarily, BABIP tends to be higher on groundballs than it is for flyballs. Take a look at the American League batting splits over the past three seasons, via Baseball-Reference:

2006
Groundballs: .247/.247/.271
Flyballs: .232/.226/.618

2007
Groundballs: .246/.246/.266
Flyballs: .218/.212/.572

2008
Groundballs: .243/.243/.263
Flyballs: .218/.212/.565

Nothing is especially surprising here- BABIP is higher on grounders than it is for flyballs, but flyballs do a lot more damage (those grounders go for singles while the flyballs that aren’t caught are almost always a double or a triple).

Now, take a look at Kendrick’s career marks:

GB: .261/.261/.280
FB: .333/.323/.658

Granted, Kendrick has a total of 997 career plate appearances, so we’re dealing with a small amount of data here. But his flyball BABIP is way, way above that of the AL average. What could be causing that?

Perhaps the answer lies in how a ball put into play is classified. Fellow Fan Graphs author Brian Cartwright wrote a very interesting piece on line drive rates by stadium, noting that there is a wide disparity between parks in terms of how often a ball put in play is classified as a line drive. From Brian’s article, here’s the chart (ballpark name and line drive factor in bold):

PARK_NAME First Last PAw LDf
Veterans Stadium 2003 2003 4768 1.23
Ballpark Arlington 2003 2008 26850 1.18
Tokyo Dome 2004 2008 283 1.13
Great American 2003 2008 28827 1.11
Coors Field 2003 2008 29158 1.10
Busch Stadium III 2006 2008 13967 1.09
Kauffman Stadium 2003 2008 27530 1.09
Nationals Park 2008 2008 4790 1.09
Rogers Centre 2003 2008 27513 1.08
Phone Co Park 2003 2008 29439 1.07
Stade Olympique 2003 2004 7684 1.07
Busch Stadium II 2003 2005 14280 1.06
Tropicana Field 2003 2008 27830 1.06
Comerica Park 2003 2008 28008 1.06
Citizens Bank Park 2004 2008 24640 1.06
Miller Park 2003 2008 29354 1.06
RFK Stadium 2005 2007 14885 1.05
Oakland Coliseum 2003 2008 26719 1.03
Safeco Field 2003 2008 26683 1.01
Comiskey Park II 2003 2008 28644 1.00
Yankee Stadium 2003 2008 28722 1.00
Dolphin Stadium 2003 2008 29849 1.00
Jacobs Field 2003 2008 28136 0.99
Camden Yards 2003 2008 29103 0.99
P.N.C. Park 2003 2008 27652 0.98
Bank One Ballpark 2003 2008 28810 0.98
Hiram Bithorn 2003 2004 2598 0.98
Jack Murphy 2003 2003 4943 0.98
Dodger Stadium 2003 2008 29555 0.98
Wrigley Field 2003 2008 28663 0.96
PetCo Park 2004 2008 24432 0.95
Shea Stadium 2003 2008 29299 0.92
Fenway Park 2003 2008 28311 0.86
Turner Field 2003 2008 29016 0.86
Anaheim Stadium 2003 2008 26490 0.86
Minute Maid Park 2003 2008 28271 0.82
Metrodome 2003 2008 28048 0.80

As you can see, Anaheim has a Line Drive Factor of 0.86- a batted ball is 14% less likely to be coded as a line drive in Angel Stadium. Why that is, I can’t say with any degree of certainty. A confluence of factors, such as scoring bias, ballpark environment and talent level of the batter play a part.

Perhaps the reason why Kendrick has such a high BABIP on flyballs (and a relatively low line drive percentage) is that should-be line-drives are being classified as flyballs instead, thus inflating his flyball BABIP and depressing his line drive rate. Overall, Angels hitters posted a .226 BABIP on flyballs in 2008, above the aforementioned .218 AL average. This is not a one-year trend, either: LAA hitters had a .228 BABIP on flyballs in 2007 (.218 AL average) and a .253 BABIP on flyballs in 2006 (.232 AL average).

What does this all mean? Well, it could have an effect on how we evaluate Angels hitters, and hitters in ballparks where a significantly lower or higher amount of line drives are classified. It has become a rather common practice to estimate a player’s expected BABIP by using primarily his line drive rate. Intuitively, it makes sense: a line drive is by far the most likely batted ball to fall for a hit (.730 BABIP in the AL in 2008).

However, given the great fluctuations in how often line drives are coded, we have to ask ourselves how much predictive value that measure really has. Kendrick has a career 17 LD%- how much of that is due to his propensity to hit line drives, and how much of that is due to a decision made by the scorer (which, in the case of Angels hitters, would mean fewer line drives coded and a lower LD%)? Line drive percentage is certainly worth looking at, but at the end of the day, it’s a subjective measure determined by the official scorer.

Howie Kendrick just doesn’t do the whole.. base on balls thing. The Angels’ second baseman, known for prodigious hand-eye coordination, is a product of the Vladimir Guerrero school of “swing-at-anything close.” Kendrick’s ultra-aggressive style served him very well in the minors: he laced one line-drive after another on his way to a career .360/.398/.571 line. With a low whiff rate (about 13%), lightning-quick lumber and some extra-base sock, Kendrick was labeled by many as a batting champion waiting to happen.

The big league results for the 10th-round pick in the 2002 draft have been fairly promising to this point, if not quite up to the very high expectations bestowed upon him. With a little less than 1,000 career plate appearances, Kendrick owns a .330 wOBA, with a .306/.333/.430 line. For a player who turned 25 last July, that’s nothing to be ashamed of in the least. However, it seems as though our would-be hitting champ has stagnated since making his major league debut back in 2006:

2006: 283 PA, .285/.314/.416, 3.3 BB%, 16.5 K%, .131 ISO
2007: 353 PA, .322/.347/.450, 2.6 BB%, 18.0 K%, .127 ISO
2008: 361 PA, .306/.333/.421, 3.4 BB%, 17.1 K%, .115 ISO

It’s certainly possible that Kendrick’s offensive plateau is at least in part due to an unfortunate rash of injuries, particularly a troublesome hamstring nearing chronic status that shelved him twice during the 2008 season (that after a broken bone in his finger during the ’07 campaign). One has to imagine that being in and out of the lineup with such frequency would make it difficult to improve pitch recognition.

With a .300 skill-set at the plate, Kendrick does not need to be a walk machine to provide a significant deal of value to the Angels and fantasy owners. However, as noted with Robinson Cano earlier this offseason, players of Kendrick’s ilk are often anchored to that batting average. It’s not out of the realm of possibility for a guy with a .300 talent level to run into some poor luck on balls in play and end up at .270, at which point the player transforms into something less than an asset. Is Kendrick perhaps a bit too aggressive?

Kendrick’s Outside Swing Percentages and Outside Contact Percentages, 2006-2008

2006: 34.9 O-Swing%, 52.8 O-Contact%
2007: 40.1 O-Swing%, 56.7 O-Contact%
2008: 36.6 O-Swing%, 49.1 O-Contact%

(The league averages are about 25% for O-Swing and 60% for O-Contact%)

It’s should come as no surprise to see that Kendrick ventures outside of the strike zone on a regular basis. Among hitters with at least 300 PA, Kendrick ranked 8th in O-Swing% in 2007 and 11th in 2008. However, he is making contact on such pitches at a rate that’s below the league average. It’s difficult to say for certain, but perhaps Kendrick’s willingness to chase so many offerings out of the zone has lead to a high groundball rate and subsequent mild power displays:

2006: 1.6 GB/FB, 52.2 GB%
2007: 1.83 GB/FB, 54.3 GB%
2008: 2.08 GB/FB, 54 GB%

Kendrick’s 2008 GB/FB ratio ranked among the 20 highest in the majors. Suffice it to say, chopping the ball into the infield grass is not a strategy conducive to feats of offensive strength: the list also features the Pierres, Gathrights and Luis Castillo’s of the world, and the highest slugging percentage in the group is a tie between San Francisco’s Fred Lewis and Washington’s Christian Guzman (huh?) at .440.

Howie Kendrick is an exceptionally gifted young player, and I am in no way advocating some major shift in batting strategy; trying to force a player to adhere to a certain style when his talents suggest he could be successful at his own game is foolish. However, Howie could stand to benefit by laying off just a few more outside pitches. More than anything, though, Kendrick just needs to stay on the field for an extended period of time.

With little apparent interest in retaining Orlando Cabrera, the White Sox decided early on during the offseason to shift Alexei Ramirez from the keystone to the shortstop position. The “Cuban Missile” is lauded for his athleticism, though most defensive metrics rated him as below average in his rookie campaign. Ramirez’s move opened up a three-way competition at second base, with an ’08 first-rounder making his presence felt as well.

The front-runner for the job at this juncture is Christopher Getz. Profiled by Marc Hulet back in February, Getz is a University of Michigan product with a line-drive swing and ability to work the count. The left-handed hitter posted a .407 OBP at Low-A Kannapolis back in 2005, but his full-season debut in 2006 (.256/.326/.321 at AA Birmingham) did not inspire great hopes of everyday deployment at the highest level. The ’05 fourth-round selection rebounded in a return engagement to Birmingham, controlling the zone (11.5 BB%, 10.8 K%) on his way to a .299/.382/.381 line in 319 PA. Unfortunately, Getz’s year was cut short by a stress fracture in his left leg.

Promoted to AAA Charlotte in ’08, Getz seemingly displayed more pop. He smacked 11 home runs, far surpassing his previous career high in a single season of three, and compiled a .302/.366/.448 slash line with a .146 ISO. However, that relative power display could be explained by the hospitable environs of Charlotte: with a three-year HR park factor of 1.32 (32% above average), it’s hard to find more inviting home digs for a batter. Getz’s AAA work translates to a .258/.311/.359 showing in the majors, per Minor League Splits. There’s no star potential here- Getz is 25 and is just cracking the big leagues- but he could be worth a look in deep leagues or AL-only leagues. The former Wolverine (seemingly healed from a broken wrist suffered in August) straddles the line between useful utility man and stretched regular.

Jayson Nix, 26, is a former Rockies farmhand who stays employed based on the merits of his leather. The 2001 supplemental first-round pick earns accolades for his defensive work, but his bat just hasn’t materialized: he’s a career .260/.330/.415 minor league hitter. He did mash at AAA Colorado Springs in 2008 (.303/.373/.591), but that was his third go-around the Pacific Coast League, so skepticism is warranted.

Speaking of middle infield prospects who haven’t quite panned out, Brent Lillibridge went from sought-after youngster in the Adam LaRoche/Mike Gonzalez deal a few years back to a throw-in as part of the Javier Vazquez swap this offseason. Drafted in the 4th round by the Pirates out of the University of Washington in 2005, Lillibridge was an on-base fiend during his full-season debut in 2006. Splitting the year between Low-A Hickory (.299/.414/.522) and High-A Lynchburg (.313/.426/.423), the rangy shortstop drew an ample amount of walks and wreaked havoc on the base paths, stealing 53 bags in 66 attempts (80%).

Following that stellar showing, Baseball America ranked Lillibridge as the 93rd-best prospect in the game, and PECOTA’s bells and whistles were whirring as well, forecasting a .276/.349/.429 major league line based on his ’06 work. Sent to AA to begin the 2007 season, Lillibridge held his own (.275/.355/.387), but his K rate jumped to nearly 30% and his walk rate was pared down to 8.9% from nearly 15% the previous year. His plate discipline further eroded at AAA Richmond, as he drew a free pass just 5.9% of the time on his way to a .284/.329/.435 line.

The wheels fell off the Lillibridge prospect wagon in 2008, as he was downright brutal back at AAA (.220/.294/.344). He walked a little more frequently (8.5%), but the high whiff rate (25.4 K%) and minimal power (.124 ISO) felled him. His short time with the Braves did not engender any lasting memories, as he swung at 36.8% of pitches thrown out of the zone on his way to a .257 wOBA. Perhaps there’s still hope for the 25 year-old in terms of becoming an everyday player, but his eroding patience at the plate might put him down a Nixian path to utility infielderdom.

The most interesting player (and the one with basically no shot of winning the job) is Gordon Beckham, a 2008 first-rounder selected out of Georgia. The 22 year-old rated as Chicago’s #1 prospect and is considered a highly-polished offensive player. Even with an admittedly mild cast of characters vying for the second base position, Beckham should return to the minors and hone his craft for a year. There’s no sense in rushing a guy with 58 official at-bats to the majors at the expense of his long-term development.

Believe it nor not, the San Francisco Giants may just be stealth contenders in the National League West. The club surely won’t be considered front-runners with such a tepid offensive attack, but a potentially outstanding run-prevention unit including Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, Randy Johnson and Jonathan Sanchez (plus that Zito dude) might be enough to stay on the fringes of the race. Per PECOTA, the Giants project to surrender the fewest runs in the National League (717).

Of course, the promise of the pitching staff is matched only by the ineptitude of San Francisco’s bats: the Giants are projected to plate a league-worst 704 runs. The team enters the spring with three-fourths of its infield unsettled, with only free agent signee Edgar Renteria assured of everyday work at shortstop. In particular, the competition at second base is a crowded one. Emmanuel Burriss, Eugenio Velez, Kevin Frandsen and Juan Uribe all figure to battle it out at the keystone.

Burriss, who turned 24 this offseason, surprisingly made his major league debut last April. The 2006 supplemental first-rounder from Kent State had scarcely played above A-Ball prior to that point, accumulating just 64 PA at AAA after jumping from High-A. The switch-hitter’s game is all about speed: as evidenced by his near 58% ground ball rate in the minors, Burriss rarely hits the ball with any authority (his career minor league slugging percentage is .337) and instead tries to put the ball on the ground and beat the fielders. Once he’s on, Burriss uses those wheels often, as he snagged a total of 68 bases in the minors in 2007, as well as 13 in his time with the Giants.

It remains to be seen just how well Burriss’ small-ball approach will work at the highest level. He performed adequately in the majors last season (.283/.357/.329, .316 wOBA), but a total lack of pop and mild plate patience (8.4 BB% in the minors, 8.7% with the Giants) do limit his offensive potential. He’s worth keeping an eye on because of the steals, but owning a guy like Burriss means that you’re sacrificing some production in other aspects of the offensive ledger.

Eugenio Velez is another switch-hitting speedster, though his baseball history is much less probable than Burriss’. Velez was selected by the Giants in the minor league portion of the Rule V Draft back in December of 2005, and has since impressed the club enough to earn himself a roster spot. The 6-1, 162 pounder had a big offensive season as a 24 year-old in A-Ball back in 2006, but that was more the product of an older player beating up on guys several years his junior than it was a sign of great offensive potential. The 26 year-old possesses more pop than Burriss (career .126 ISO in the majors), but Velez’s approach at the plate is less refined. He has drawn walks at a 5.3% clip and has swung at nearly 31% of offerings thrown outside of the strike zone.

Kevin Frandsen will likely just be glad to be back on a baseball field on a full-time basis. The San Jose State product received all of one at-bat in 2008, as he lost the year to a ruptured achilles tendon. The 26 year-old makes contact often (10.6 K% in the majors, 8.8% in the minors), but that’s about the extent of his virtues with the bat. The right-handed hitter walked just 6.3% of the time in the minors with a .131 ISO. Frandsen is listed as the starter on San Francisco’s official depth chart and might be considered the favorite to grab the second base job at this point. If you’re looking for a comparison, think Freddy Sanchez, minus the anomalous 2006 batting title.

Pull-hitter extraordinaire Juan Uribe is also in Giants camp as a non-roster invitee. The equal-opportunity hacker’s game is pretty well-known at this point: he certainly offers more thump than his fellow second base competitors (career .170 ISO), but his impatient approach has left him with a career OBP south of .300. Uribe’s glove work and ability to play multiple positions might give him a decent shot of making the club.

With the uncertainty surrounding Chase Utley, some analysts have Brandon Phillips as the top second baseman in the National League and along with Ian Kinsler one of the top at the position in all of baseball. Phillips at his peak offers power, average and speed and it is no wonder why many people are bullish on him as we head to the start of Spring Training.

But the one thing to keep in mind is that Phillips has been a starter for three seasons and his 2007 season, where he posted a .288-30-94-107-32 line, is the outlier. If he can duplicate that season, then yes he is one of the top second basemen in fantasy. But what if he hits like he did in either 2006 or 2008? Here is his average line from those two seasons:

.268-19-77-73-24

Now, that is a real nice line for a second baseman. It is just beneath what you should expect from, say Dustin Pedroia or Brian Roberts, with the latter trailing Phillips’ ADP of 29 according to the latest information from Mock Draft Central.

Phillips was hurt last year by a .281 BABIP, which was about 25 points below what he posted his previous two seasons. He has seen his LD% drop from 19.2 percent in 2006 to 16.4 percent last year. Both his FB% and HR/FB rates fell by a tick, too.

In 2006, he was successful on 25 of 27 steal attempts. His percentage fell off somewhat in 2007, but he compensated by attempting 40 steals. Last year, Phillips had 23 steals but was thrown out 10 times. That is not a good trend.

The four projection systems show him basically repeating his 2008 season this year. That is a fine line for a second baseman and nothing to dismiss. Just remember that before you make him one of the top players picked at the position. If he reproduces his 2008 numbers, Phillips is a third-tier second baseman. That makes his peers Alexei Ramirez and Dan Uggla, not Kinsler and Utley.