Archive for Second Base

Getting to Second Base

Getting to (a) second base(man) in fantasy (baseball) can be tough. (Especially in seventh grade.) Only Robinson Cano is the top forty this year, so more than a few fantasy managers are looking for help at the position. Here are a trio of guys that could be useful. Thanks to Mike Axisa and Zach Sanders for the idea.

Brian Roberts, Baltimore (65% owned)
Much has been made of Robert’s three-year decline in stolen base totals, and his back troubles. But, as is often the case with veterans, he’s also on a three-year increase in ISO. It wouldn’t be incredible for him to hit double-digits in both home runs and steals in the second half. It seems unbelievable, but so did getting to second base at some point in your life. He does have five hits in seven plate appearances so far on his rehab stint. Of course, all but one of the hits were singles, but if you get him off the wire, you won’t be complaining.

Gordon Beckham, Chicago AL (35%)
It’s been a tough year for Beckham, and though we thought that maybe it was too early to give up on him way back when, it probably was best if his owners dropped him then… and maybe picked him up now. It got a little hairy when Brent Lillibridge (with his .643 BABIP (!) and limited upside (.268/.348/.409 in the minor leagues)) was starting over him, but a little injury to the aged one, Omar Vizquel, seems to have opened up some room for Beckham. He’s been starting regularly in July at least, and at some point his BABIP (.255) has to embiggen. Maybe the fact that he’s been hitting the ball in the air more in July (42.9% in July, 35.7% for the year) bodes well for him. He definitely has more upside than any other second or third baseman on the White Sox roster now.

Neil Walker, Pirates (5% owned)
Walker? No, I wanted to… nevermind. Walker is putting up a mediocre .275/.318/.423 line, but there’s one nice thing about it. It’s sustainable, or at least it appears so. Walker got his strikeout rate to a manageable level (22.5%) which is in line with his minor league numbers (17.1%) and doesn’t scream ‘poor batting average.’ His .330 BABIP might come down, but a corresponding increase in his power might help his average stay around the same. He is sporting a .148 ISO, and had a .168 number in the minor leagues, and even that ISO was higher over the last couple of years. In deeper leagues, you might just be looking for a place holder that doesn’t kill you in any category. Walker might just be that guy.


What We Talk About When We Talk About Mark Ellis

We’ve updated both the shortstops and the second basemen fairly recently, so it’s time to take a look at a deep-league middle infield option. Full disclosure: I own Mark Ellis in the Blog Wars fantasy league put on by FanGraphs user/commenter MDS or Million Dollar Sleeper. So this is a completely self-serving look at whether or not I have ‘solved’ my middle infield situation. I hope you get some use out of it, hah.

First, the good news. The batting average looks safe. Not only is Ellis walking about the same as ever (8.8% 2010, 8.3% career) and striking out a little less (13.4% 2010, 15.3% career), but his BABIP is neutral as well (.309 2010, .290 career). He’s reaching a little much (29.8% 2010, 21.3% career), but making the same amount of contact overall (85.7% 2010, 85.5% career). We also have to remember that the league-wide reach rate (28.6%) is up big from last year (25.1%), so his absolute reach rate, or difference between his reach rate and the league reach rate, has gone down this year from last year. He hasn’t changed much.

The overall plate discipline package looks like one that is about average everywhere except in one spot. Ellis can make contact with pitches in the zone at an above average rate. How’s that for a niche – it should go on page one of his agent’s presentation. His zone contact percentage rate has been steadily and significantly above-average across his career, and this year is no different (96.2% zone contact, 88.1% league-wide average). With his average walk rate in hand, and above-average ability to make contact on balls in the zone, Ellis should always put up a middling batting average when his BABIP is neutral. His career numbers in those regards (.290 career BABIP, .266 career batting average) provide good sign posts as they usually do.

In our league, which sports 15 owners and 31 roster spots (including CI, MI, and five OFs), any middle infielder that starts and puts up a decent batting average is ownable. For example, the best MI available on the wire, ranked by ownership, are Yuniesky Betancourt (74 wRC+), Omar “All-Star” Infante (93 wRC+), and Adam Kennedy (84 wRC+). That’s a craptacular grab bag of mediocrity, and Ellis’ 98 wRC+ stacks up well against all of them.

On the other hand, the almost-regular Infante could put up a better batting average (.268 career, but over .293 over the past three years) even though his BABIP right now (.370) is propping up his current average. The line separating Ellis from meh waiver wire fill-in at a position (like Infante) and an actual strong pickup is populated with counting stats. Can he put up some power or speed?

Short answer: not really. His career ISO (.139) is below-average for all of the MLB (usually around .155), and would be just about average for a batting-average qualifying second baseman this year (.138). He may barely crack double-digit home runs in an average year, but probably not this year. He’s putting a career-low percentage of his balls in the air (34.7% this year, 42.1% career), and yet he’s also sporting a career-low HR/FB rate (3.8% this year, 6.9% career). But maybe his 2010 ISO (.081), which is not yet accrued in a significant-enough sample size, will regress towards his career number and allow him to crack 10 home runs.

If he was a speedster, the power would be forgivable from a fantasy standpoint. And Ellis’ last two season have produced his career-high stolen base totals (14 and 10 respectively), so maybe Ellis will actually crack double-digits in that category. His speed scores (3.3 this year, 4.7 career, 5.0 average) don’t scream ‘speed demon,’ but at least he’s successful when he goes (75%) so he should continue to put up the odd steal. He’s batting seventh, so he’ll have some chances to steal in front of poor batters, but he’s no speedster at the top of the lineup. On the other hand, the overall suckitude of the A’s lineup (11th in the AL in runs) will keep his contributions in runs and RBI down.

Still, Mark Ellis is really just a filler. In a league as deep as ours, it’s important to have at least an average major league starter in each of your positions, and Ellis can be that. His lack of upside in the counting stats, however, soften any further impact he might have.


Waiver Wire: July 6

I still can’t find anything, and my earthly belongings are on a truck somewhere between New York and California – with New York being more likely despite me being in California. Ain’t moving grand? That said, let’s get on to the meat of the matter. To the Waiver Wire, dudes!

Asdrubal Cabrera, Cleveland Indians (42%)
This should serve as a reminder that Cabrera is still alive. The team has already begun talking about a rehab assignment, and he may be back soon after the All-Star break. Maybe the injury will sap some of his power, but it’s not like Cabrera was smacking the stuffing out of the ball anyway (.081 ISO) and power is not really his game. His feet should be fine – although one stolen base in 140+ 2010 plate appearances doesn’t inspire confidence. So wait, why do we like him? Well, Cabrera can put up a nice batting average (.287 career) and plays at a tough position. There are plenty of owners out there looking at worse situations at shortstop, and if they wanted to get ahead of the game and owned an open DL spot, they could drop their current shortstop, pick up Cabrera, and then pick up Jason Donald (1% owned in Yahoo leagues) for the meantime. Emulating the Cleveland Indians isn’t usually the way to go, but in this case, it should make for a player with a decent batting average at the very least. While Donald’s walk rate is not inspiring (4.9%), he doesn’t strike out much (18.2%) and his BABIP (.330) is not out of line for a man with his above-average wheels or current line drive percentage (22.9%). It looks like he can continue putting up the stats that he’s sporting right now in the short-term future.

Jayson Nix, Cleveland Indians (1% owned)
Hey, it’s Cleveland Indians’ Middle Infield Day! Chalk this up as a win for deep league owners, as most mixed leaguers will want to stay clear of the Cleveland ‘situation.’ Carson Cistulli noted that a) Cleveland’s lineup is wicked young; and b) Nix will be in the mix going forward. Young lineups and bad teams mean opportunities for fantasy managers, and if Nix wins the playing time at second base, he will be more than relevant in deeper leagues given his ability to put up above-average power (.185 ISO this year, .190 last) for a middle infielder. He even has a little speed (10 stolen bases, 2 caught stealing in 2009). Donald will shift over from shortstop once Cabrera returns and should give Nix a run for his money, but at some point, Nix’ batted ball luck will have to change. Do you know that his career BABIP is .234? That’s putrid. Even coming in 451 plate appearances, that is not sustainable. Yes, he’s a fly-ball hitter (48.3% career), and fly balls have worse BABIPs, but this is just ridiculous. Perhaps he needs to work on his line drive stroke (13.1% career, 10.6% this year), but the best news right now is that he has playing time for two weeks and the chance to catch fire. Long term, it’s either Donald that wins at the position, ostensibly for his defense, or as Satchel Price pointed out in his excellent “2013” series, Jason Kipnis for his good-looking bat.


Theriot Behind in the Count

Now that 20-year-old Starlin Castro is the Chicago Cubs’ starting shortstop, Ryan Theriot has shifted to second base and again holds position eligibility on both sides of the DP combo. And, for the first time in a few years, he’s stealing bases at an efficient rate. Theriot went 28-for-32 in SB attempts during his first year as a starter in 2007, adding about 3.4 runs of value according to Baseball Prospectus’ Equivalent Stolen Base Runs metric. But he went 22-for-35 in 2008 (-3.5 EQSBR) and 21-for-31 last season (-2.6 EQSBR). In 2010, Theriot has swiped 15 bases in 18 tries, with +1.1 EQSBR so far. He’s running, and running well, when he gets the chance. Unfortunately, Theriot’s getting on base at a career-low-clip.

In 314 PA, the 30-year-old has a .280/.321/.307 line, with a paltry .289 wOBA. Never known for driving the ball, Theriot has a .027 Isolated Power that falls short of his very modest .074 career ISO. The fact that he has all of seven extra-base hits this season clearly contributes to his feeble offensive output. But another reason why Theriot’s bat has been nearly 11 runs below average is his declining walk rate.

Theriot took ball four 8.9% of the time from 2007-2009, slightly above the average big league walk rate. This year, he’s walking in just 5.1% of his PA. Is he expanding his strike zone by swinging at more pitches thrown off the plate? Slightly, but it’s hardly a dramatic increase. Here are Theriot’s outside swing percentages in recent seasons, as well as the MLB average for each season. The last column shows Theriot’s O-Swing as a percentage of the big league average:

If Theriot’s not hacking at more pitcher’s pitches, then why has his walk rate dipped? For starters, opponents are throwing him more pitches within the strike zone:

Pitchers have long challenged the former LSU Tiger with in-zone offerings, but he’s getting more pitches over the plate than ever before. Unfortunately, Theriot is having a hard time recognizing balls from strikes. According to StatCorner, the percentage of pitches that he has taken for a strike has increased this year. Theriot has taken 38.6% of pitches for a strike in 2010, compared to 33% in ’09, 36.1% in ’08 and 37.7% in ’07 (the MLB average is 31%).

Pitchers are throwing Theriot more strikes, and he’s keeping the bat on his shoulder more often against those strikes. It’s no surprise, then, that Theriot’s often ending up in pitcher’s counts. His first pitch strike percentage is 66.9 this season. That’s the fourth-highest rate among qualified MLB hitters and well above his 60.1% average from 2007 to 2009 (58-59% MLB average).

Opposing hurlers aren’t afraid of Theriot, and they reflect that confidence by pounding the zone against him. In order to return to his previous .290/.355/.360 range, Theriot needs to knock more than two extra-base hits a month and stop putting himself at the mercy of the pitcher.


Breakout Player: Martin Prado

We all know about Robinson Cano’s MVP-caliber season so far in 2010, which has him ranked as the fifth most valuable player in standard 5X5 Yahoo leagues, but don’t forget about the keystone warrior in Atlanta.

Martin Prado, 26, is leading the Majors in hits (104 in 74 games) and was just one of four players with more than 100 base knocks. He is also sixth in the Majors in batting average at .332. Overall, he has a triple-slash line of .332/.373/.473 in 319 at-bats. According to Yahoo’s standard 5X5 ranking, he’s the fourth most valuable second baseman in the Majors right now.

The good news for Prado owners is that all his numbers point to this being a career trend – and not simply a career year or an extended hot streak. He hit more than .300 in both ’08 and ’09, and he’s posted wOBAs of .367 in ’08 and .355 in ’09. Prado’s ’10 wOBA is currently sitting at .367. The big difference this season is that he’s playing more regularly, which means better counting stats, which is great for fantasy managers.

We definitely do want to be cognizant of the fact that Prado has a .365 BABIP, which is on the high side – but not terribly unsustainable in the Austin Jackson realm. Prado’s BABIP was .357 and .331 during the previous two seasons.

Another issue with Prado is the fact that much of his value is tied up in his batting average and, to some degree, runs scored (although he doesn’t walk much – 6.3 BB%). His career high in steals is three (set in ’08) and his ’10 home run output is going to fall in the 12-15 range. He’s also not going to find himself in a run-producing spot in the lineup any time soon.

Second base in an area where you’re not going to generate a ton of value, unless you’re lucky enough to have Cano, Chase Utley or the recently injured Dustin Pedroia. If you currently own the Braves second baseman, don’t let anyone convince you to trade him with the thought that his first half success was a fluke.

If you’re someone who is looking to upgrade at second base and you’re eying Prado, the good news is that his excellent 2010 season has not generate a ton of attention just yet so you may be able to pry him away from a naive fantasy manager without having to sell your soul.


Boston Picks Up Patterson From A’s

Boston Red Sox acquired 2B/OF Eric Patterson from the Oakland Athletics for LHP Fabian Williamson.

Dustin Pedroia’s laser show is on hold for the time being — the second baseman fouled a Jonathan Sanchez fastball off his left foot in the third inning of Friday’s contest against the San Francisco Giants. Pedroia suffered a fracture, and while there’s no firm timetable for a return, early estimates have him missing up to six weeks.

Jed Lowrie (mononucleosis) is on the DL, as is Double-A shortstop prospect Jose Iglesias (bruised hand). Saber favorite Tug Hulett has sunk with the PawSox this season (.168/.293/.302 in 241 PA). Recently recalled Angel Sanchez rates well with the leather according to Total Zone, but he’s a career .279/.334/.351 minor league hitter. As such, the Sox could give Patterson a spin at second (along with Bill Hall) as Pedroia heals.

Patterson, 27, was originally a Cubs prospect taken out of Georgia Tech in the eighth round of the 2004 draft. In July of 2008, Patterson was shipped to Oakland (along with Josh Donaldson, Sean Gallagher and Matt Murton) for Rich Harden and Chad Gaudin. The lefty hitter holds a career .303/.368/.478 triple-slash in 2,570 career minor league plate appearances. Displaying decent pop (.175 Isolated Power) and adequate strike zone control (9.3 BB%, 19.3 K%), Patterson also stole bases with an 80.6% success rate.

In the majors, Patterson’s got a career .224/.301/.340 line in 378 PA, with a .300 wOBA. Corey’s little brother has walked 10.1% of the time, whiffed 28.4% and has a .116 ISO. He has nabbed bases at a 91.7% clip, with 22 SB in 24 tries. Out of minor league options, Patterson made Oakland’s roster out of spring training but was recently DFA’d to make room for Coco Crisp. ZiPS projects that Patterson will hit .248/.310/.399 for the rest of 2010, with a .320 wOBA. CHONE thinks he’ll bat .261/.322/.411.

Patterson figures to be a slightly below-average MLB hitter who can add some value on the bases. That’s not a bad fill-in for the Sox on such short notice, if he can cut it at second. Patterson, who has big league experience at the keystone and in the outfield, rated as above-average at second in the minors according the Total Zone. His scouting reports in years past were less flattering, however. In its 2008 Prospect Handbook, Baseball America lamented that “despite his athleticism, Patterson has never gotten the hang of playing second base. He doesn’t read balls well off the bat or range well to his right.”

Given his stolen base chops and non-terrible bat, Patterson’s worth a temporary pick-up in AL-only leagues.

Going to the A’s in exchange for Patterson is Williamson, a 21-year-old lefty who is joining his third organization. The 6-2, 175 pounder was acquired by Boston from the Seattle Mariners for David Aardsma prior to the 2009 season. Equipped with a quality curve/changeup combo but sitting in the high-80’s with his heater, Williamson didn’t crack the Sox’ top 30 prospect list this past winter.

Pitching in the Low-A South Atlantic League last season, he had 8.7 K/9, 4.4 BB/9, a 37.9 GB% and a park-and-luck-adjusted FIP of 4.37 in 108 innings. Williamson split ’09 between the rotation and the bullpen (16 ‘pen appearances, 12 starts), but he has been a full-time starter in the High-A Carolina League in 2010. On the positive side, his ground ball rate has climbed considerably (54.5 GB%). However, he’s also whiffing 5.5 and walking 4.7 in 65.1 innings, with a 5.05 park-and-luck-adjusted FIP.


Waiver Wire: June 26th

Carlos Guillen, Tigers (Owned in 10% of Yahoo leagues)

Guillen endured an injury-plagued 2009 season, missing a huge chunk of time from early May to late July with a left shoulder ailment. His line — .242/.339/.419 in 322 PA, with a .328 wOBA — combined with increasing fragility and a gradual slide down the defensive spectrum led many owners to write off the switch-hitter as over the hill.

Apparently, someone forgot to tell Guillen that he’s toast. That ’09 triple-slash was misleading, as his strong secondary skills (12.1 BB%, .177 Isolated Power) were obscured by a .263 BABIP. Guillen’s expected BABIP was .322. Injury has slowed Guillen again this season (a left hamstring strain that DL’d him from late April to late May), but his BABIP has bounced back to .309, and he’s batting .283/.337/.461 in 166 PA.

The former Astros prospect and Mariner has been unusually aggressive at the dish, hacking at 34.3% of pitches thrown out of the strike zone (28.4% MLB average). That explains why he’s walking 7.8% of the time. But Guillen’s hitting with the same power as in ’09 (.178 ISO), and he has become a much more intriguing fantasy option with a move back up the defensive ladder — he’s manning the keystone spot for the Tigers. As a 34-year-old with a history of knee, hamstring, back and shoulder maladies, Guillen’s no sure thing. But a guy with a .278/.353/.459 rest-of-season ZiPS and position eligibility in the outfield and at second base is worth a roster spot.

Dallas Braden, Athletics (41%)

A 24th-round pick out of Texas Tech in the ’04 draft, Braden has achieved some level of fame by telling Alex Rodriguez to get off his mound and then twirling a perfect game against the Tampa Bay Rays on May 9th. He remains on the wire in most fantasy leagues, though, despite showing considerable improvement.

In 2009, Braden posted a 3.89 ERA in 136.2 innings before a nerve injury in his left foot ended his season in late July. His peripherals suggested he pitched more like a high-four’s ERA starter, however — with 5.33 K/9, 2.77 BB/9 and a very low ground ball rate (36.4 GB%), Braden had a 4.80 xFIP. While fewer fly balls become dingers at the Coliseum than most other parks (a HR/FB park factor of 92 from 2006-2009), Braden’s 4.7 HR/FB% looked primed to climb.

It has — Dallas is allowing homers on nine percent of fly balls hit against him. Yet his ERA is actually slightly lower, at 3.83. Unlike in 2009, Braden has done more to earn that mark. Tossing 94 frames so far, the 26-year-old lefty has struck out 5.55 batters per nine innings, walked just 1.53 per nine and has increased his ground ball rate to 42.4%. The result of Braden’s improved control and more neutral GB rate is a 4.06 xFIP. He’s never going to miss bats in the majors at anywhere near the insane clip that he did on the farm, but he’s more than an A-Rod agitator who had his 15 minutes of fame in May — Braden’s an above-average starter.


The Pedroia Injury

The Red Sox placed Dustin Pedroia on the disabled list with a fracture in his foot today, though the severity is unknown and there’s no timetable for his return. He suffered the injury last night when he fouled a ball off his right instep, though he managed to stay in for one more pitch (ball four) before limping off.

With a .382 wOBA and 12 homers in 73 games, Pedroia was one of the three best fantasy second baseman, so his absence is a major loss to more than just the Red Sox. Like I said when we looked at some fill-ins for Troy Tulowitzki, your best bet is too make sure that you don’t take a hit in the AVG and OBP departments, because there’s basically no way to replace the counting stats at this time of the season. Here’s three players that could lend a hand…

Kevin Frandsen | Angels | 4% owned

With infielders dropping like flies due to injuries and Brandon Wood still doing his best to claim the title of worst player in baseball, the Angels have turned to Frandsen this month, and he’s produced in a big way. He’s hitting .333/.371/.439 with seven doubles (all in his last ten games) in June, playing every day at the hot corner. (R) ZiPS projects a .281 AVG (.338 OBP) the rest of the way, mostly because his .373 BABIP will likely regress as the season goes on. Frandsen is eligible at 2B, 3B, and SS.

Orlando Hudson | Twins | 30%

Hudson is having a typical year for him, hitting in the .280’s (.281, to be exact) with an OBP in the .350’s (.352), though he’s scoring a boatload of runs (42) batting in front of Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau, and Co. (R) ZiPS projects more of the same going forward, and you know he’ll play every day as long as his wrist holds up.

Freddy Sanchez | Giants | 20%

Sanchez came off the disabled list in mid May, and he’s been doing his usual high AVG (.302), low power (.079 ISO) act since. (R) ZiPS predicts a .299 AVG going forward, and there’s no reason to expect anything more than that. As long as Sanchez’s knee doesn’t begin to act up, he’ll be in the lineup every day for San Francisco.

Replacement second baseman are a sorry lot, so make sure you keep your eyes open. If someone gets hot for a week, don’t hesitate to grab him and ride it out while Pedroia’s on the DL.


Don’t Give Up On…Aaron Hill?

Toronto Blue Jays 2B Aaron Hill entered 2010 flying high. After all, Hill hammered pitchers for a .286/.330/.499 line last season, with 36 home runs and a .357 wOBA that placed behind just Ben Zobrist, Chase Utley, Robinson Cano, Dustin Pedroia and Ian Kinsler among keystone players. The LSU product’s unprecedented power surge (.213 Isolated Power) wasn’t expected to be repeated this year, but ZiPS and CHONE figured he’d be an asset at the plate again:

ZiPS: .275/.323/.447, .172 ISO, .337 wOBA
CHONE: .282/.332/.453, .171 ISO, .342 wOBA

Fantasy players bought the breakout performance big-time — according to KFFL, Hill’s ADP for 2010 was 49th overall. But, instead of providing a potent bat at an up-the-middle position, Hill has a .197/.289/.370 triple-slash and a putrid .296 wOBA. Despite the hefty investment, some owners are cutting ties altogether. Hill is on the waiver wire in nine percent of ESPN leagues, and 17 percent of Yahoo leagues. What’s going on here?

Two numbers jump off Hill’s stat sheet — his .192 batting average on balls in play and his 9.7% line drive rate, both lowest among qualified major league hitters. During his big league career, Hill has a .298 BABIP and he has hit line drives at a 19.3 percent clip.

Those missing line drives have been classified as fly balls, as Hill’s 48.9 FB% is well north of his 39.5 percent rate. And more of those flies are of the weak variety — his infield/fly ball rate is 14 percent. That’s nearly double the MLB average and above his career 10.1 IF/FB%. Infield flies are the closest thing to an automatic out on a ball put in play, so they’re BABIP killers.

Another potential cause of Hill’s poor hitting is his expanded strike zone. His outside swing percentage was below the MLB average each season from 2005-2008, and it was about six percent above the big league average last season. In 2010, he’s hacking at 33.3 percent of off-the-plate pitches, compared to the 28.1% MLB average. As a proportion of the big league average, that’s +19 percent (33.3 divided by 28.1). Also, he’s making more (likely weak) contact with those pitches thrown out of the zone — his O-Contact% was below the major league average the previous three seasons, but he has put the bat on the ball 71.9% of the time on outside pitches this year. The MLB average in 2010 is 66.4%, so Hill’s O-Contact is plus-eight percent.

Hill’s plate discipline this season has been less-than-stellar. But even so, there are reasons to expect a rebound to league-average hitting. His BABIP on grounders this year (.153) is 90 points lower than his career average (.243). His BABIP on fly balls (.081) is 34 points lower than his career mark (.115). Hill’s still hitting for power (.173 ISO), and his walk rate is in the double-digits (10.6 BB%) despite his chasing more pitches than usual, the result of opponents throwing him fewer pitches in the zone (46.2%, compared to the 47.3% MLB average).

The 28-year-old second baseman has a .258/.314/.431 rest-of-season ZiPS, with a .329 wOBA. CHONE projects a .268/.328/.451 line, which is roughly a .335 wOBA. His career triple-slash? .278/.333/.429, and his wOBA is .332.

Hill’s not the new Jeff Kent He has fallen into some bad habits, which have contributed to his struggles. However, he’s not a lost cause, either. Hill retains a good deal of pop, and he should resume being a solid, if unspectacular fantasy option with some better bounces and a plate approach reboot.


Rankings Update: Second Base

More than a third of the way through the season, let’s see what the list looks like now. To-date wOBA and ZiPs Ros wOBAs included for your pleasure.

The Top Targets:
1. Chase Utley, Philadelphia (.371 wOBA, .401 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
2. Robinson Cano, New York AL (.439 wOBA, .372 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
3. Dustin Pedroia, Boston (.354 wOBA, .365 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
4. Ian Kinsler, Texas (.324 wOBA, .363 RoS ZiPs wOBA)

When you’ve been excellent as long as Chase Utley has, you buy yourself more than a couple months of subpar performance before you give up the top spot (or: if this is what a slump looks like, go get me some pomeade). Ian Kinsler doesn’t quite have the same pedigree, has always had the injuries to contend with, and just has to fall behind Dustin Pedroia and Robinson Cano because of the AL East second basemens’ beastly seasons to date. If you’re giving up on Utley now, please contact me with trade offers because I’m buying.

Still Strong:
5. Brandon Phillips, Cincinnati (.373 wOBA, .352 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
6. Ben Zobrist, Tampa Bay (.368 wOBA, .362 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
7. Dan Uggla, Florida (.370 wOBA, .356 RoS ZiPs wOBA)

Had to split tiers here because some of the medium-style second basemen are having worse-than-mediocre seasons. it’s a tough position when you can only really be satisfied with the top seven. Of course, the argument will be made for some of the guys below, but these seven are the only guys that combine track record with help in the counting stats and don’t hurt too bad in any one place. The good news for Ben Zobrist fans is that even with less power, he’s going to be a strong middle infielder going forward.

Could Still be Strong:
8. Chone Figgins, Seattle (.296 wOBA, .328 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
9. Rickie Weeks, Milwaukee (.346 wOBA, .345 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
10. Ian Stewart, Colorado (.332 wOBA, .344 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
11. Aaron Hill, Toronto (.296 wOBA, .329 RoS ZiPs wOBA)

These guys are head-scratchers, and there might plenty of moaning about their spots. The thing is, there are glimmers of hope in each case. Chone Figgins is still walking and stealing bases like last year, he’s just striking out a bit much and doesn’t have a nice BABIP like he usually does. His strikeout rate is up almost 5% over his career number and he’s got his second-worst contact rate of his career, but there’s no guarantee that will continue. If he gets hot and ends up with a .280+ average going forward, and finishes like the Dan Uggla of speed at a tough position, he’ll earn this spot. Aaron Hill has a wacky batted ball profile that should get extended coverage soon, but the power is there. If he ends up with Casey McGehee numbers at the end of the year, it’s clear which of the two you want going forward. Rickie Weeks and Ian Stewart will elicit groans from the batting-average lovers, but they do decent work in the counting stats and still could produce mediocre batting averages if they recapture their early-season gains. In a couple weeks, these guys may be re-distributed upwards and downwards (Hill and Stewart, I’m looking in your direction), but I think they merit a little more attention in the meantime.

Flawed but Good:
12. Kelly Johnson, Arizona (.391 wOBA, .373 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
13. Casey McGehee, Milwaukee (.345 wOBA, .324 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
14. Ty Wigginton, Baltimore (.369 wOBA, .353 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
15. Juan Uribe, San Francisco, (.367 wOBA, .341 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
16. Placido Polanco, Philadelphia (.346 wOBA, .343 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
17. Martin Prado, Atlanta (.369 wOBA, .352 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
18. Alberto Callaspo, Kansas City (.320 wOBA, .334 ZiPs RoS wOBA)

This is the tier that holds second basemen that fit needs. If you need power, Kelly Johnson, Ty Wigginton, Juan Uribe and McGehee are your men, but all of them but Uribe (!) have already started to taper off and may yet be replaced in this tier. Our skepticism may have been warranted in McGehee’s case. Martin Prado and Placido Polanco will fit the right batting-average starved team better than many teams on the list above them, but neither is a lock to crack as many as 15 home runs, nor do they have speed. None of the bunch really has the upside to be a complete second baseman (except maybe Uribe?!!).

Upside to Join the Top:
19. Brian Roberts, Baltimore (.254 wOBA, .355 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
20. Howie Kendrick, Los Angeles AL (.310 wOBA, .329 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
21. Ian Desmond, Washington (.311 wOBA, .324 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
22. Orlando Hudson, Minnesota (.362 wOBA, .346 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
23. Mike Aviles, Kansas City (.321 wOBA, .312 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
24. Felipe Lopez, St Louis (.328 wOBA, .314 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
25. Gordon Beckham, Chicago (.253 wOBA, .328 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
26. Jose Lopez, Seattle (.254 wOBA, .306 ZiPs Ros wOBA)

Brian Roberts continues his long, painful slide and may not be back for another month or two, so it’s hard to place him anywhere but here. Falling along with him are Gordon Beckham and Jose Lopez. When a .597 OPS is ‘picking it up in June,’ it’s hard to be optimistic about Beckham. I still think he’ll get it going, but when is the question, and he’s surely not ownable in the meantime unless you are just stuck with him in a deep league. Repeat that all with a .596 OPS for Lopez, and probably less upside. Ian Desmond and Mike Aviles debut on the list, and have some upside, but Aviles is older than you think, has no power or speed, and Desmond is Kendrick-lite because he has the same lack of counting stats but about half the batting average upside.