Before we do an early-early 2011 ranking for these positions, let’s do one last update on shortstops and second basemen around the league. We’re still playing 2010 ball, for another couple of weeks at least.

Ryan Raburn, Tigers (57% owned)
There’s probably no better way to inject some power into your shallow league middle infield than picking up Ryan Raburn and sticking him at second base. His current .207 ISO is impressive for a second baseman (qualifying second basemen average a .1396 ISO this year), and not far off of his career pace (.196). It looks sustainable, if only because he is again hitting most of his balls in the air (46% this year, 47.7% last year, 44% career). He’s also steadily cut down on his infield fly balls (8.6% this year, 12.1% career). He’s a flawed player – he strikes out too much (24.3% this year, 25.2% career) to really put up a nice batting average, and his UZR/150 at second base (-27.4) suggests that he’s no long-term solution at the position. But right here, right now, watching your league slip away from you – Raburn can give your team a short-term power boost at a tough position.

Jose Lopez, Mariners (37% owned)
You hit three home runs in one (major league) game and you’ll get a writeup in this space too. The amazing thing about how bad his season has been is that even with that outburst, he’s hitting .200/.218/.347 in September and .237/.267/.337 on the year. At least he’s predictable. Lopez has now had five seasons with below-average power and his career ISO (.134) is also sub-par. Because he also doesn’t walk (3.5% this year, 3.7% career), he’s left with one sole skill in his offensive bag of tricks (and it’s offensive for sure). He still doesn’t strike out (10.9% this year, 11.9% career). Also, his fielding is mostly rated as positive. But that’s not enough to start on a good team, so either Lopez will be starting for a bad team next year, or he’ll be a backup. For now, pick him up at your own peril. Honestly, those 37% of Yahoo owners must include about 35% of owners that have checked out on the season.

David Eckstein, Padres (2% owned)
It’s nice to know that fantasy owners are 98% immune to the guile of the average local baseball columnist – and that Fire Joe Morgan came back for a day to remind us how bad sportswriting about Eckstein can be. Even though his proponents might say that his skills don’t translate on paper, there is one nice thing about playing Eckstein in the final weeks of your deep league, and it does show up in the boxscore (on paper). He doesn’t walk (5.4%) or strike out (7.7%). Sure, he doesn’t have any power (.062 ISO), but he’ll make the most use of his at-bats in the fantasy sense. Walks and strikeouts can be largely negative things when you are looking for batting average and batting average alone. Play Eckstein if you are looking for an average boost because he’ll get the most of his at-bats in a box score sense – and his grission level is off the charts, too. With Jerry Hairston Jr out for the year, he should play every day too.

A little turmoil today leads to two easy waiver wire pickups. Run don’t walk!

Michael Wuertz, Athletics (20% owned)
Looks like Andrew Bailey is going to Dr. James Andrews and is done for the year. That sounds terrible because it is. Well, the ‘done for the year’ part is not so terrible considering there are two weeks left, but the ‘Dr. James Andrews’ part is pretty bad. Wuertz has been good but not great this year – the strikeouts are still there (9.31 per nine), but he lost all the gains he made last year with his control. His walk rate (4.6 BB/9) is too close to his career level (4.05 BB/9) to think that this is really fluky. Instead, it looks like last year’s walk rate (2.63 BB/9) is the outlier. It’s a shame, but he has the punch to close, at least against right-handed lineups (3.29 career FIP against righties). His 4.21 FIP against lefties probably means that Craig Breslow will steal a save or two (3.43 FIP against lefties career). Together, that’s a decent closer, although a long-term injury to Bailey would have the Athletics hoping that Wuertz can corral the slider better next year. He does throw the pitch a whopping 65% of the time.

Mike Aviles, Royals (22% owned)
Well, maybe you don’t have to run to get Mike Aviles in your lineup. But Chris Getz did get shut down after experiencing renewed dizziness after working out today. He’s probably done for the year, given how long other concussion victims have been out this year. Aviles didn’t quite take the season by storm, as his ISO (.093) never got back to his career levels (.118). That’s sort of important, considering he doesn’t walk (4.4% career), and the only other offensive skill he offers is “not striking out” (11.2% this year, 13.8% career, average usually around 20%). In the last thirty days, however, Aviles has hit over .300 with power and speed and has been more than a decent middle infield stopgap. He’s not a great player, and while he has more power than Getz, the fact that Getz walks more, has more speed, and is a better defender will probably win out long term.

Jed Lowrie, Red Sox (Owned in 2% of Yahoo leagues)

Dustin Pedroia‘s laser show is postponed until 2011, and Marco Scutaro’s playing through a partially torn rotator cuff in his right shoulder. Thus, Lowrie is getting the chance to re-insert himself into Boston’s plans after scarcely playing at all over the past two seasons.

A 2005 supplemental first-round pick out of Stanford, Lowrie displayed quality secondary skills for a middle infielder in the minors (.284/.380/.445 line in 1,600+ plate appearances). Baseball America ranked the switch-hitter as the #73 prospect in the game prior to 2008, and Lowrie reached Fenway that year. He held his own in the majors, batting .258/.339/.400 in 306 PA with a 95 wRC+. Lowrie punched out often (26.2 K%), but he controlled the zone by walking 11.4% of the time and swinging at pitches thrown off the plate just 17.6% (25.4% MLB average in ’08).

Unfortunately, Lowrie suffered a left wrist injury in 2009 and had to undergo surgery that wiped out three months of his season. He took only 76 trips to the plate in the majors last year, posting a 20 wRC+ with terrible luck on balls put in play. This season, Lowrie was sidelined until late July with Mononucleosis.

Since returning to action, however, Lowrie’s bat has been a plus for the Sox. He’s got a 122 wRC+ in 128 PA, hitting .255/.359/.445. The 26-year-old has a 14.1% walk rate, hacking at 21.9% of pitches thrown outside of the strike zone (29.2% MLB average this season). Lowrie’s no star, but he possesses patience and a dash of pop while capably playing up the middle of the diamond. CHONE thinks Jed is a .262/.347/.400 hitter ZiPS is less of a fan, though (.242/.324/.394). I like his chances of staying closer to that CHONE forecast.

Jhoulys Chacin, Rockies (22%)

For most of his minor league career, Chacin was a moderate-K, ground ball-centric pitcher who limited walks. In the show, though, the 22-year-old Venezuelan native has taken a power approach.

In 113.1 innings pitched this season, Chacin has whiffed 117 batters. His rate of 9.29 strikeouts per nine frames ranks 10th among pitchers tossing at least 100 innings. His 10.7% swinging strike rate also ranks 10th, and his 74% overall contact rate trails just Francisco Liriano. Chacin’s breaking stuff has been devastating. According to TexasLeaguers.com, he’s throwing his low-80’s slider for a strike 70.6% (63.4% MLB average) and getting a whiff 22.5% (13.6% MLB average). The righty’s high-70’s curveball is getting strikes 61% (58% MLB average) and whiffs 14% (11.6% MLB average).

All of those whiffs have come with walks. Throwing 41.3% of his pitches within the zone (46.7% MLB average), Chacin has issued 4.05 BB/9. Even so, he’s boasting an above-average ground ball rate (46.3 GB%) and a 3.69 xFIP. Pick him up if he’s still sitting on the sidelines in your league.

Embracing their youth movement, the Nationals have called up shortstop Danny Espinosa. Because of Ian Desmond’s place on the roster, Espinosa will be playing second base in D.C, and should find playing time on most days for the rest of 2010.

Rated Washington’s fourth best prospect by Marc Hulet, Espinosa has tools that fantasy owners should be drooling over. He has the ability to hit for power as well as steal bases, a quality rarely found in a middle infielder.

The twenty-three year old made his way through the Nationals Double-A and Triple-A affiliates this season, hitting at both levels. During his stint in Harrisburg (AA), Espinosa had an ISO of .202 and 20 steals in 432 trips to the plate. His overall numbers transferred over well to Syracuse (AAA), but his power production declined a bit, which is probably due to a small sample and an adjustment period.

Espinosa will never be a guy with a high LD%, so his batting average may pay the price. However, he’s fast enough to live with hitting grounders, and has the potential to strike out at a below-average rate, allowing Espinosa to keep a respectable batting average in the future. It’s unlikely he’ll ever hit .300, but a .275/20/15 line next year is reasonable and could be expected from the young switch-hitter.. While it’s nothing spectacular, it’s good enough to be owned in every league next year, regardless of his position in the middle infield.

If you’re in a keeper league, Espinosa’s your guy. Owners in redraft leagues shouldn’t be too eager to jump on him, but he’s a good bench option if you’re looking to fill out a roster with upside.

It’s a situation if you call it one, but it could also be a quagmire or a black hole too. The Mets are having open tryouts for second base next year, and the contestants are… shall we say, underwhelming. Still, it’s interesting just because these guys are all similarly challenged, what with the limp noodlery at the plate and all. Someone has to win and that someone might just be relevant in a really deep league, right?

The manager won’t help much, it seems:

“Hernandez is playing pretty good,” Manuel said. “I kind of like what I’m seeing with him. I think Tejada could use a breather here and there. So I’d like to see what we get from that combination. And we still have Louie [Castillo]. We still have [Joaquin] Arias. So we’ll see how it fits going down the stretch.”

Luis Castillo
The old man is suddenly the dark horse in this scenario, but he might provide the team’s best chance to actually get a 100 wRC+ offensive line from their second base spot. On the other hand, it’s probably not happening as the power as completely left him (.033 ISO, .061 career) and he’s had line drive rates around 15% three of the last four years, so the BABIP has started to come down (.257 this year, .329 career, .267 in 2008). His defense looks scratch by the numbers this year, but after two years of declining UZR/150s, it’s probably best that Castillo see his playing time reduced.

Joaquin Arias
Spiderman doesn’t walk, like at all. But he’s quick (like a spider?), and could someday put together a BABIP-influenced league-average second baseman line with perhaps a little less on-base percentage at his peak. It wouldn’t be impossible for him to do something like .275/.315/.390 with a bunch of steals. He’s had 47 of those suckers over the last two years in Triple-A. But with his approach at the plate, a lot of luck would have to factor into him even putting up anything close to the league average. He’s probably a backup too.

Ruben Tejada
Since his first season in rookie ball, Tejada has also eschewed the walk. He didn’t hit average walk rates in Single-, Double- or Triple-A. He also had a career ISO of .075 in the minor leagues (and flyball rate that fell as he advanced, which seems to predict little future power), so he kind of looks like a younger Castillo without the walks and a little better defense. The defense is the reason management thinks he is best candidate for this year, but the offense will limit him to a backup most likely. If only he walked more, or even had the exciting speed of Arias, he would have a secondary skill beyond defense and upside for more value.

Daniel Murphy
Murph has done everything the team has asked of him, with moves from left field to first base on his resume already. Might he move to second base? He had two games at the position of his eight total games at Triple-A this year, and the team could definitely use his bat at the position if the glove can fit. A career .275/.331/.437 line would play much better at second base and that above-average isolated power (.161) probably represents the most power they could get from the candidates. The question his glove represents is a tough one to answer. Total Zone numbers had him as a scratch defender at third base in the minor leagues, and small samples in the major leagues have shown him to be a good first baseman and a poor outfielder. Even if it seems unlikely that he would be a good defender at second base, it’s worth remembering back to his days as a third baseman before counting him out completely. He’ll have the AFL to show he can be a decent second baseman, and if answers that in the affirmative, he might actually be the front runner in the spring.

Luis Hernandez
Hernandez is a 26 year old with almost 900 career minor league games and a career .250/.302/.331 line that does not even hold water in this light-hitting group. He has played his high-contact game into some decent batting averages the last two years, if light on the power and OBP. He’s a little like Arias without the speed, but he does have one thing over the spidery one: he can play shortstop. At least, Total Zone thinks he can. if the backup second baseman is supposed to be the backup shortstop, which makes sense from a roster flexibility standpoint, then Hernandez might actually win a spot on the team next year.

Reese Havens
Havens is by all accounts the future at the position for the Mets. He’s done some nice things, but it’s important to keep down expectations considering he hasn’t yet compiled more than 360 at-bats in a single year. Injuries have been a problem. Though his biggest sample – High A St. Lucie – doesn’t seem great at first blush (.252/.363/.431), the Florida State League is a notoriously tough league and he showed a nice eye at the plate (55 walks against 73 strikeouts in 353 at-bats). This year he really upped the flyball rate and the power before succumbing to injury yet again. The lack of at-bats make it hard to know exactly how special Havens is, but what he’s shown so far (12% career MiLB walk rate, .206 ISO) is enough to prove that he has the highest upside of this group. Most likely, the Mets start the season with something like Murphy and one of the better defenders (Arias, Tejada or Hernandez) splitting time while Havens proves his mettle and comes up later in the season, although this analysis assumes that the Mets can treat Castillo as a sunk cost and let him go, which is no sure thing given the Mets history. Act accordingly.

Jordan Zimmermann, Nationals (Owned in 5% of Yahoo leagues)

Nationals fans giddily awaited a Stephen Strasburg/Zimmermann combo, giving the moribund franchise a pair of premium power pitchers at the top of the rotation. But alas, as Zimmermann’s Tommy John scars gave way to scoreless starts in the minors, Strasburg’s elbow gave out.

While the news of Strasburg’s injury is bitterly disappointing, Zimmermann is talented in his own right. Washington’s second-round pick in the ’07 draft was extremely impressive during his big league debut last season, with 9.07 K/9, 2.86 BB/9 and a 3.39 xFIP in 91.1 innings pitched. With a fastball averaging a hair over 93 MPH, a mid-80’s slider, a high-70’s curve and a mid-80’s change, Zimmermann leaped ahead in the count (65.2 first pitch strike%, 58% MLB average) and got a good number of swinging strikes (9%, 8.6% MLB average).

On the rehab trail, Zimmermann had a 31/6 K/BB ratio in 39.2 IP spread across four levels. And while two big league starts doesn’t tell us much, he has a 13/1 K/BB ratio in 10 innings pitched. Zimmermann has averaged a little more than 92 MPH with his heater. He’s no Strasburg, but he’s well worth snagging in fantasy leagues.

Neil Walker, Pirates (32%)

Since the Pirates made him the 11th overall pick in the 2004 draft, Walker’s status within the organization has waxed and waned. The switch-hitter from nearby Pine Richland High School has gone from highly-touted catching prospect, to third baseman of the future to an afterthought utility man. But now, in the midst of an excellent 2010 season, Walker’s looking like the Pirates’ long-term answer at second base.

Recalled from Triple-A Indianapolis after raking to the tune of .321/.392/.560 in 189 plate appearances, Walker has posted +11.5 Park-Adjusted Batting Runs in three-plus months in the majors. Turning 25 this coming Friday, Walker is batting .310/.354/.486 in 346 PA, good for a .362 wOBA. Adjusting for park and league factors, Walker’s wOBA is 27 percent above average (127 wRC+). Even better for fantasy owners, Walker still qualifies at the hot corner as well.

Granted, Walker hasn’t drawn many walks (5.8 BB%), and his batting average on balls in play is very high at .367. But ZiPS still projects him as an above-average hitter moving forward, with a .280/.321/.453 triple-slash and a .332 wOBA.

The biggest question he’ll have to answer is, can he cut it at second base? We just don’t know the answer yet. Six-hundred-some innings isn’t near enough of a sample to make an informed judgment, however bad his UZR marks might be. Sean Smith’s Total Zone rated Walker as somewhat below-average at third base in the minors, and figures he’ll cost his club more than a half-win with the glove at second. Expect Pittsburgh to give Walker every chance to make the transition, though.

Perhaps to my detriment, I read the comments on my posts. I feel it keeps me on my toes and makes me a better analyst, but you might just call it some sort of sadomasochism (especially with some comments). In any case, a comment on a shortstop rankings post engendered this Jimmy Rollins post, so it can’t all be bad. Now some comments on my latest second base rankings post have me wanting to revisit a second baseman and his place in the rankings so far this season.

Some of the sentiment seems that Martin Prado should be in the first tier of second basemen. At first blush, this doesn’t pass the sniff test for me. For example, Brandon Phillips beats Prado in every traditional fantasy category but RBI (by about ten) and batting average (by about 25 points). Even going forward, you’d expect Phillips to have more power and speed, so this is no fluke thing.

Another second baseman mentioned was Ben Zobrist. The difference between Prado (top of fourth tier) and Zobrist at the bottom of the second tier is actually much closer than it might appear. The tier in between (with Brian Roberts, Chase Utley, and Chone Figgins) was titled “Will They Ever Get it Together” for a reason. Obviously, those guys – at their peak – offer more upside than Prado in fantasy baseball. They are also performing at levels that are far from their peaks this year, but that upside is still remains. Prado will never hit 30 home runs, nor will he steal more than 30. Those are fantasy numbers worth pursuing.

But I digress. Back to Zobrist. It doesn’t look like Zobrist’s power is on its way back, and Prado doubles him in the home run category, but Zobrist still gets on base at almost exactly the same rate if OBP is a fantasy category for you, and he steals many more bags than Prado. Unfortunately for me, the batting average is just not there for Zobrist, as his .251 average is not even projected to improve by much (.291 BABIP currently, .253 ZiPs RoS batting average projection). Thusly, Prado also beats Zobrist in runs by a hefty margin. Prado should probably be above Zobrist in the rankings it seems.

It is strange that a man with a .094 ISO in the minor leagues has put up an ever-improving ISO in the major leagues (.155 overall, .171 this yer), but we have to go with what he’s currently doing, especially since that improved ISO has now come in 1416 plate appearances. Perhaps the added juice on the pitches coming in is aiding the power of a line-drive hitter, or perhaps it’s just been a superlative development process. Prado is, at least, hitting the ball in the air a little more in the major leagues. His last two stops in the minors produced 27.3% and 23.8% flyball rates respectively, compared to 34.1% overall in the major leagues. In either case, his slightly-above-average power plays very well at second base, a tough position.

While Prado probably won’t hit 20 home runs, or steal ten bases, or be in the top three at his position in any category but batting average, he provides value in all five fantasy categories and is, in all likelihood, a top second-tier fantasy option at second base. Given all the qualifiers in that last sentence, perhaps I can be forgiven for not putting him in the top tier among players that do show great power and speed. But he should have been in the second.

So it looks like Dustin Pedroia might be out for the year now that his foot has remained sore. His owners are left crying into their caps, and looking for replacements. Since it’s normally time for a middle infield update anyway, this works out well. We’ll look at possible replacements based on the size of your league. The benchmarks come from Jeff Zimmerman’s article here.

Shallow Leagues (58% owned or less)
If you are lucky, Omar Infante (60% owned) will be out there for you. He is one of the better possibilities for replacing the little-bit-of-power, little-bit-of-speed thing that Pedroia had going, and he is also atop one of the better lineups in the National League. But Infante doesn’t quite hit our benchmark, so Alberto Callaspo (46% owned) has a little more pop than Asdrubal Cabrera (44% owned) and might therefore be a better replacement for the balding Boston ballplayer. Though neither has shown much power or speed this year, it’s Callaspo that has had the best power year (.156 ISO in 2009) between the two and Cabrera that has had the best speed year (5.9 speed score in 2009). Depending on your priorities, they make decent stop-gaps.

12-Team Leagues (26% owned or less)
The options on this level are Orlando Hudson and Ryan Raburn, and both have a little more power than the guys above. Raburn’s currently showing a .176 ISO and has a .186 career number in that category, so he’s the guy to pick up for power. With his strikeout rate (26.2% this year, 25.9% career), he probably won’t put up a Pedroia-an batting average, and his speed has declined from about average (5.1 in 2008, 5.0 is average) to below average (3.8 in 2010) in three years. Hudson will give you a decent batting average as he has been within spitting distance of his .282 career batting average in most years. Unfortunately, he’s in the midst of a four-year decline in his power and now owns a poor ISO (.118). While his speed score is still above average (5.6), he hasn’t cracked double-digit in steals since 2007. Either way, Hudson is the closer comp to the Boston second baseman.

20-Team Leagues (1% owned or less)
Yes, Blake DeWitt is playing every day and is atop a lineup, but he’s also owned in 3% of Yahoo leagues, doesn’t have much pop or speed, and that Cubs lineup isn’t anywhere close to the Red Sox lineup. Well, none of your options in leagues of this size will come close to Pedroia’s excellence, so let’s just get that out of the way. No, of the second basemen owned in 1% of leagues (or less), it’s Chris Getz that is the most interesting. He’s mostly wrested the second base job away from Mike Aviles, but he’s just about as flawed as the man he replaces (or worse). He has no power to speak of (.040 ISO this year, .069 career, .150 ISO is average), and now that he’s 641 plate appearances into his career and showing the same walk rate every year (7.8% this year, 7.3% career), we can say he doesn’t really get on base at an average rate (8.5% walk rate is average this year). Well, he does do one thing. His speed score has stayed above average every year and is decent this year (5.5). He has some wheels. His 13 stolen bases (87% success rate) even means that he could equal a fictionally healthy Pedroia the rest of the way in one category. Unfortunately for deep league owners, it’s just one category.

It’s been almost six weeks since we updated the rankings for second basemen. Oh, in those hallowed days of yore – six weeks hence I lived in New York City, my commute was filled with tourists and teenagers, six-packs cost $12 and every once in a while human feces was something I had to watch out for. Greatest city in the world. On to the second basemen, with to-date wOBA and ZiPs RoS wOBAs included for your pleasure.

The Top Targets:
Robinson Cano, New York AL (.403 wOBA, .373 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
Ian Kinsler, Texas (.359 wOBA, .368 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
Dustin Pedroia, Boston (.381 wOBA, .372 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
Brandon Phillips, Cincinnati (.349 wOBA, .339 RoS ZiPs wOBA)

Not much to report here, other than perhaps the fact that some would want Cano in his own tier with Utley and Pedroia down and Kinsler showing much less power than he has in the past. It’s not an unreasonable position. However, the other three guys still have 20/20 type skills, and with Cano’s lack of speed, it makes sense to create this tier.

Strong Secondary Options
Dan Uggla, Florida (.383 wOBA, .365 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
Rickie Weeks, Milwaukee (.375 wOBA, .360 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
Kelly Johnson, Arizona (.379 wOBA, .373 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
Ben Zobrist, Tampa Bay (.345 wOBA, .347 RoS ZiPs wOBA)

Johnson is enjoying the best power production of his career, and his home park might just have a little to do with it. Just look at his home slugging percentage (.605) compared to his road number (.380). It still evens out to an effective second baseman either way. Zobrist is stealing enough bases and showing just enough power to be useful even in this less-exciting version. He could be a mascot for the tier – a little ugly, but getting the job done.

Will They Ever Get it Together This Year:
Chase Utley, Philadelphia (.377 wOBA, .406 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
Chone Figgins, Seattle (.305 wOBA, .327 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
Brian Roberts, Baltimore (.292 wOBA, .356 RoS ZiPs wOBA)

Of course the question with Utley is one of health. The latest reports say the splint is off and he hopes to be back before the end of the month, meaning that he could be a sneaky acquisition for a manager looking for a late boost. In head-to-head leagues in particular, Utley is intriguing as a strong addition for a contending team stocking up for the fantasy playoffs. Since the break, Figgins has been hitting .300 and striking out less, so it’s possible the old Figgins is back and we just didn’t notice. Kinda makes him either over-rated or a buy-low candidate depending on how you parse that statement. There’s a whole lot of rust and a really small sample size for Roberts, so he makes the riskiest buy low of the trio.

Pick ‘Em:
Placido Polanco, Philadelphia (.346 wOBA, .348 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
Martin Prado, Atlanta (.364 wOBA, .353 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Ian Stewart, Colorado (.348 wOBA, .346 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
Casey McGehee, Milwaukee (.335 wOBA, .327 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Ryan Theriot, Los Angeles (.290 wOBA, .302 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Ty Wigginton, Baltimore (.339 wOBA, .358 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Juan Uribe, San Francisco, (.330 wOBA, .328 ZiPs RoS wOBA)

This is a pick ’em tier not because they all have the exact same value. In many leagues, these guys are free agents and their value is close to nil. Of course, deeper league owners are happy to have many of them. It’s the fact that each offers production in a category or two that makes them pick ’ems. Need a little bit of pop? Try Wigginton or Uribe if Stewart is not available. Need some speed? It could be worse than The Riot. Need some batting average help? Polanco can help while Prado is out. The flaws are all there, too, though.

Upside to Join the Top:
Gordon Beckham, Chicago (.296 wOBA, .331 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
Aaron Hill, Toronto (.305 wOBA, .327 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
Howie Kendrick, Los Angeles AL (.317 wOBA, .326 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
Ian Desmond, Washington (.302 wOBA, .321 RoS ZiPs wOBA)

Technically, this group still has the upside to move upwards. They’ve all had some poor batted ball luck – Hill of course the most extreme (.204 BABIP) – and the regressions to their means might give for a nice stretch or two in the final seven weeks. On the other hand, their flaws are also fairly impressive at this point. Hill hits everything in the air to his detriment (52.1% flyballs, 13.2% popups), Desmond reaches a little too often (34.1%, 17.5% more than average) and could make more contact (79.1%, 2.3% below average), and Kendrick still doesn’t have the power (.141 ISO) or the speed (4.9 Speed Score) to make an impact in the counting categories. Beckham hasn’t been too unlucky with his BABIP, and though he does have the flaws to put him in this group (.117 ISO most prominently), his rookie year still shows his upside and makes his owners wonder which Beckham is the true version. These guys have a sliver of hope between them and the next group down.

Filler:
Carlos Guillen, Detroit (.331 wOBA, .353 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
Orlando Hudson, Minnesota (.335 wOBA, .342 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
Felipe Lopez, St Louis (.323 wOBA, .316 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
Alberto Callaspo, Los Angeles AL (.311 wOBA, .324 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Mike Aviles, Kansas City (.300 wOBA, .304 RoS ZiPs wOBA)

This is a new tier, but the name reveals all. It’s nice to get most of the second basemen in the league listed in one place, so this group has a place. That place is probably not on your fantasy team unless most starters in your league are owned. It’s completely possible that not a single guy among the four will crack double-digits in either home runs or steals, or hit .300.

In 2004, Juan Uribe posted a 108 wRC+ as a 24-year old. He had position eligibility at 2B, 3B and SS and was one of the most exciting middle infielders in fantasy baseball. Flash forward to 2010 and Uribe has a 107 wRC+ and position eligibility at the same three infield slots. But despite this strong play, Uribe is almost an afterthought in fantasy circles.

After the 2004 season, in which he batted .283 and hit 23 HR, Uribe declined in subsequent years. While the power remained strong, he saw his AVG drop to where he hit .235 and .234 in back-to-back seasons. After an injury-plagued 2008 season, which also saw Alexei Ramirez cut into his playing time, Uribe left the White Sox and signed with the Giants as a minor league free agent.

Uribe bounced back in a big way in 2009, posting a .289 AVG while rebounding from 7 HR in 2008 to 16 HR. This year the AVG has fallen off, currently .261, but he has nearly matched last year’s HR output with 15 HR in 380 ABs.

Last Player Picked has Uribe’s season worth $11. Among second baseman in mixed leagues he is tied for the 10th-best dollar value and among shortstops he ranks tied for sixth. All of this comes from a player who Couch Managers had with an ADP of 256.

For fantasy players, the key question is: Can Uribe keep it up, whatever “it” may be? In his breakout season of 2004, Uribe posted a .307 BABIP, certainly not a mark to turn anyone’s head. But from 2005 through 2008, Uribe had marks of .264, .240, .259 and .287 in the category, helping to explain the sub-par AVG. Last year he had his best season, with a BABIP of .325, and this year he checks in with a .274 mark.

If we look at his batted ball profile, we see Uribe has dramatically increased his GB%. In his last year with the White Sox, Uribe had a 34.4 GB%, a career-low, but basically in line with what he had done previously. Last year he had a 39.5 GB% and so far this year it is 43.5 percent. While Uribe is hitting fewer fly balls, he is compensating with a higher HR/FB rate. Last year he set a career-high with a 12.6 percent rate and this year Uribe has a 13.2 mark.

But while Uribe is poised to post career-best HR/FB rates in back-to-back years, it was not significantly better than his career marks. Lifetime he has a 10.1 HR/FB rate and he topped 12 percent in two seasons prior to 2009.

One other statistic of note is how well Uribe has hit in San Francisco. In his time with the Giants, Uribe has a .326 AVG in 344 ABs at home compared to a .233 AVG in 395 ABs on the road. Additionally, he has 18 HR at home compared to 13 in road parks.

Uribe is a free agent following the 2010 season. The Giants already have 2B Freddy Sanchez under contract for 2011 and hold a club option on SS Edgar Renteria. UZR shows Uribe as a good fielder at 2B in his two years with the Giants, but below average at SS.

Regardless of where he signs, Uribe should still be a good power option in the middle infield for 2011. But fantasy owners may be disappointed with his AVG, especially if he leaves San Francisco. While it is normal for BABIP and AVG to fluctuate wildly year to year compared to other fantasy stats, Uribe’s career marks in those categories do not show someone to count on to be a plus performer.

Still, even with just a fair mark in AVG, Uribe should be a valuable fantasy player due to his power, as MI who can hit 20 HR do not grow on trees. In 2009, only 14 players with MI eligibility hit 20 HR. Updated ZiPS projects Uribe to finish with 20 HR in 2010.