Pitching, pitching, pitching! That’s the focus of today’s Roto Riteup.
– We talked a little bit about the closer situation in Boston earlier this week, but now things have gotten more complicated. Andrew Bailey is going to have surgery on his thumb, and there’s a good chance he now misses half the season or more. Whoever is name his replacement will have solid value throughout the season, whether it be Mark Melancon or Alfredo Aceves.
Today’s Roto Riteup mysteriously focuses on the Braves and Rockies.
– The Braves have finally decided that Tyler Pastornicky is their shortstop, at least for the 2012. Pastornicky is what some would call a “contact machine,” but he doesn’t have much in the way of power production. Pastornicky has put up decent SB numbers in the minors, but don’t expect him to swipe more than, say, 20 bags while hitting in the eighth hole.
Today’s Roto Riteup isn’t nearly exciting as your Monday is going to be. Monday’s are the best.
– It looks as if Red Sox closer Andrew Bailey is going to start the year on the disabled list. Owners of Bailey should have been expecting a DL stint at some point, but starting the year on the bench can be a little less psychologically damaging. With Daniel Bard sliding into Boston’s rotation, one would assume setup man Mark Melancon would finish games in Bailey’s absence. However, there is growing speculation and reports that the Red Sox would hand to job over to Alfredo Aceves, the loser of the three man fight for Boston’s final rotation spot. You should probably pick up whoever gets the nod, especially with Bailey’s injury history.
The focus of today’s Roto Riteup will be on just one player, Marlon Byrd, and the recent trade rumors surrounding him to Atlanta or possibly Washington.
Injuries and player development are the two biggest “ifs” in both baseball and fantasy baseball alike. Will a player finally make the leap from prospect to player? From projection to production? Who will stay healthy for 550 plate appearances? It is impossible to accurately predict these things all the time, but due to recent development and injury news, some teams are left scrambling to fill out their rosters.
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Given that the true regular season hasn’t started yet, The Game still isn’t quite in full swing either. Instead, today’s Roto Riteup will highlight a couple players that may see action in the MLB opener. The Miami Marlins play host to the reigning World Champion St. Louis Cardinals on Wednesday, April 4th to open up baseball here in the Eastern Standard Time Zone.
Rather than focus on the obvious fantasy candidates, I’ll highlight some useful bullpen arms for each squad.
– Heath Bell is the obvious closer in Miami. No doubt. This of course presents the next biggest bullpen question: who will be the setup man? As of today, manager Ozzie Guillen is yet to announce it to be any single person, but some are inclined to believe it will be Edward Mujica. Given that Mujica already has two holds and a K/9 above 10.0 and hasn’t surrendered a single walk in Spring Training, it would be hard to argue against him. If you play in a holds league, setup men are worth almost as much as closers. A deeper glance at Bell would also suggest that he is on a three year downward trend. In 2011, Mujica had a higher strikeout rate and a lower strikeout rate than Bell. If Bell struggles repeatedly, expect Mujica to be amongst the first to be tried at closer. Mujica is owned in only 3% of Yahoo! leagues. He deserves to be owned in all but the shallowest of leagues.
Today’s Roto Riteup will not include suggestions for who to pick today in The Game, since the day’s game will have already started by the time this goes live. When games don’t start at ungodly hours, you should expect to see suggestions for the current day’s games.
Since fantasy owners watch games with a certain slant, here are some notes on things you may want to look for during the first few games of the year.
– One thing to take note of over the first week or two of the season is Jemile Weeks’ approach at the dish. The speedy second baseman walked a good deal in the minors, but he tended to opt to put the ball in play during his stint with the A’s last season. Last season the switch-hitter averaged 3.85 pitches per plate appearance and swung 42.7% of the time, so use those numbers as a sort of benchmark going forward. If he decides to walk in the majors, his OBP could make him supremely valuable.
Today’s Roto Riteup isn’t nearly as exciting as FanGraphs: The Game, which you should totally acquaint yourself with.
– Baseball starts tomorrow morning! Can you believe it? Don’t forget to set your lineups in anticipation of the Seattle Mariners’ matchup against the Oakland A’s in Japan.
Today’s Roto Riteup is going to focus on left fielders. Because it does, that’s why.
– The Blue Jays have made a decision about their LF opening, and the job has been handed over to Eric Thames. Thames wasn’t a hyped prospect, but he’s shown power in Double-A, Triple-A, and the major leagues. Thames strikeout rate is a bit concerning, but he can be a good outfielder for you if you are willing to play him against only right-handed pitching.
Location, location, location.
No, I’m not talking about real estate. I’m talking about the different park factors that players (and fantasy owners) have to deal with. Today’s Roto Riteup deals with players who may end up in a different uniform before the season is over.
– Mark Reynolds has apparently hit the trading block. Reynolds topped 30 homers for the third straight year, and is a known commodity as a relatively cheap power source. His home park last year certainly aided him, as Camden Yards had the third highest home run factor for right handed batters, 123 via StatCorner. Given that, almost anywhere else that Reynolds lands is likely to cause a dip in his power numbers. Mark Reynolds without the power? That isn’t exactly an ideal player to own.
Today’s Roto Riteup talks primarily about closers. Closers, closers, closers.
– Grant Balfour has been named the A’s closer, beating out Brian Fuentes. Balfour’s home run rate last season was certainly worrisome, but another season with an ERA below 3.00 and a WHIP below 1.15 is extremely attainable. Balfour is in the last guaranteed year of his contract, so a mid-season trade isn’t out of the question, even though the A’s hold a club option for 2013.
– With Joakim Soria having big-time elbow problems, Greg Holland should be on everyone’s draft board. While Jonathan Broxton is the experienced closer, Holland is a more effective pitcher and less likely to break down in the process. Projecting where Holland should be drafted is tough, but if he is the full-time closer, there’s a chance he could actually end up in the top-ten at his position thanks to his massive strikeout rate. Mike Podhorzer has more on the subject.
– Dr. James Andrews alert! Orioles’ starter Zach Britton is going to see the noted baseball mortician after inflammation returned to his throwing shoulder as of late. Britton was the subject of fantasy debate last year over whether or not he was a relevant roto option, but this should help squash any remaining ideas that he should be owned in anything but dynasty leagues. If your keeper deadline already passed, you should be kicking yourself in the face for being so silly.
A Pitcher For Today/Tomorrow
During the season, you’ll be finding recommendations for starters you could stream for the day after the notes, but this being spring training, I’m going to assume you aren’t playing some strange high-stakes spring fantasy game.
If you have anything in particular you’d like to see in this year’s Roto Riteup, please say so in the comments. Feedback is appreciated.
