Archive for Prospects

Darvish A Cut Above Other Japanese Imports

This past week, the Texas Rangers landed Japanese ace Yu Darvish for a cool $112 million. The right-hander’s virtues are apparent: he has what’s considered an ideal pitcher’s build (6-foot-5, 215 pounds), he throws 95 mph, and he thoroughly dominated the competition for the Pacific League’s Nippon Ham Fighters in his early-to-mid-twenties. The projection systems either like the 25-year-old (a 3.62 ERA and a 169/46 K/BB ratio from Dan Szymborki’s ZiPS) or want to propose cyber marriage (a 2.40 ERA and a 223/44 K/BB from Brian Cartwright’s Oliver).

But Darvish’s signing has also been met with some skepticism. Some starting pitchers coming from Japan to the U.S. have found success (Colby Lewis after initially bombing in the majors, Hiroki Kuroda), but many others have disappointed.

Daisuke Matsuzaka, Kei Igawa, Kaz Ishii, Hideki Irabu and Hideo Nomo all got lots of cash and press, but Dice-K is the only pitcher among that group to post a career adjusted ERA better than the league average in Major League Baseball (and you’d be hard-pressed to find anyone who would say he has lived up to Boston’s $103 million investment). Critics say that for whatever reason — cultural adjustments, four days’ rest between starts instead of six, pitching backwards in a more fastball-heavy league, exhaustive workloads at a young age that eventually take a toll — Japanese pitchers haven’t lived up to the hype. What makes Darvish any different?

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Noesi’s Path Easier in Seattle — For Now

For Hector Noesi, cracking the starting rotation with the New York Yankees looked like no easy task. Locked in a death match with the Tampa Bay Rays and Boston Red Sox for AL East supremacy, the Bombers aren’t in a position to give a second-tier prospect like Noesi a chance to prove his worth in 2012. At most, he figured to toil in middle relief while getting an occasional spot start, much like he did as a rookie this past year.

Noesi’s prospects of piling up important innings changed last week, however, as he was shipped to Seattle as part of the staggering Michael Pineda/Jesus Montero challenge trade. Noesi, 25 later this month, could also eventually be pushed out of the rotation picture with the M’s as higher-upside arms like Danny Hultzen, James Paxton and Taijuan Walker reach the majors. But for now, he has a good chance of winning a spot behind King Felix, Jason Vargas and Japanese import Hishashi Iwakuma. Noesi has garnered a reputation as a quality strike-thrower and will benefit from moving to Safeco Field, but he’ll have to prove he can miss bats with his four-pitch mix to merit consideration in most fantasy leagues.

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Danny Hultzen, Fernando Martinez, Andrew Brackman: Prospect Chatter

In this edition…

How a Japanese pitcher could push back the No. 2 pick’s ETA, why F-Mart landed in the right place and whether a former first-rounder has any hope in a new org.

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Brad Peacock (again!), Ryan Flaherty and Addison Reed: Prospect Chatter

In this edition…

A second take on Brad Peacock, a first look at a couple of Ryans and another reason rookie Addison Reed could be the White Sox’s new closer.

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Norichika Aoki: NL Outfielder?

A little personal exuberance aside, it isn’t likely that Japan’s newest (possible) position player import is an impact fantasy bat this year. His skill set, situation, and even posting fee don’t suggest a breakout is on the way. We can dream — but the realities of the situation are likely to wake us up.

Three years ago, work in my previous incarnation as an educational publisher had me in Japan regularly. The Yakult Swallows played in Tokyo and tickets were much easier to get than Yomiuri Giants tickets, so I was a default fan of the Swallows, as bad as that sounds, and their center fielder Norichika Aoki.

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Michael Taylor, Liam Hendriks and Simon Castro: Prospect Chatter

New year, new roles. That’s the 2012 outlook for a few prospects who are nearly big league-ready but now have to figure out where they stand in the wake of some recent transactions.

In this edition…

What the re-signing of Coco Crisp means for a former top prospect, why getting Jason Marquis is — gasp — a good move for the Twins and how the other side of the Carlos Quentin deal could play out.

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Bryce Harper and Teenage Slugging

Sometime soon, Bryce Harper will be hittin’ bombs and blowin’ kisses as the Washington Nationals’ right fielder. But could “soon” actually be this spring? The most hyped prospect in draft history might have actually exceeded expectations at age 18 during his first pro season, hitting .297/.392/.501 with 17 home runs between the Low Class-A South Atlantic League and the Double-A Eastern League in 2011. And, according to Amanda Comak of The Washington Times, Nats manager Davey Johnson seems eager to get Harper’s 80-grade power in his lineup:

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Brett Jackson, Phillippe Aumont, Brad Peacock: Prospect Chatter

As more trades, free agent signings and roster moves happen, I’ll continue to look at the resulting impact on prospects for the 2012 season. In this edition…

Why the Cubs’ acquisition of David DeJesus is a good thing, whether Jonathan Papelbon killed the fantasy value of a Phillies’ relief prospect and how owners are going to wind up hating Chien-Ming Wang.

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Dominguez and Conger: Prospect Chatter

‘Tis the season of wheeling, dealing and spieling.

Baseball’s Hot Stove season gets all sorts of coverage. Among the general questions that can be applied to just about any scenario are: Which big name is rumored to be signing here? What trade chip would be a perfect match there? And does Buster Olney ever actually sleep?

While the transactions of note generally involve big leaguers signing with or being traded to new teams, one angle that often gets overshadowed is how those moves effect prospects. Sometimes, an inking or a deal by the parent club can be good news for minor leaguers, but many times, that’s not the case. What looked only yesterday to be a clear path to playing time for a prospect ready to contribute, instead has suddenly become a circuitous detour along a bumpy road with indecipherable signage, more than a few potholes and the ultimate destination — the majors — nowhere in sight.

With that in mind, buckle your seat belts as we take a look at a pair of young players whose 2012 stocks have been impacted head-on by some recent moves.

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Astros Prospects in 2012 and Beyond: Prospect Chatter

You might remember that I’d previously promised a more in-depth look at the Houston Astros’ minor league system, one that is overflowing with uber-talented, can’t-miss studs.* And I’m one to make good on my promises.
*Gotcha: It’s opposite day.

Having already listed the team’s Top 10 prospects (per Baseball America) and pointed out how the move to the AL in 2013 will impact NL-only keeper owners immediately, let’s check into the org’s prospects who could make their debuts in 2012 — and maybe even make an impact — and those who are the best bets for future value once the franchise is in the American League.

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