Yankees pitching prospect Rafael De Paula entered the season cloaked in mystery. There were three basic things known about him to the general prospecting community. First, despite being a coveted international free agent, he didn’t sign a contract until he was almost 21 due to maintaining a false identity, being suspended, and taking a long time to acquire a visa in the aftermath of the incident. Second, once he finally was officially a professional, he went out and tore up the Dominican Summer League in 2012, with a 1.46 ERA and 85/18 K/BB in 61 2/3 innings. Of course, his advanced age made those statistics even less relevant than typical DSL numbers, which mean little on the prospecting scene to begin with. What was more important was the third fact, which was that he supposedly had good stuff.

I saw De Paula show that stuff on April 21 against Hickory, where he threw five hitless innings with ten strikeouts. Today, I’m going to examine what allowed him to roll through South Atlantic League lineups with ruthless efficiency in the first half of the year, but also look at some of the rough edges that contributed to a drop in production following De Paula’s promotion to High-A at midseason.

Read the rest of this entry »

The most polarizing prospects are often those who juxtapose areas of tremendous skill with pervasive, troubling weaknesses. Supporters of such prospects will claim that the strengths will render the weaknesses irrelevant as the player progresses and faces tougher competition, while doubters will claim the opposite. Few players inspire this sort of phenomenon more strongly than Rangers third base prospect Joey Gallo, who launched 38 homers in just 106 games as a 19-year-old with Low-A Hickory…but also struck out a whopping 165 times in that span, good for an astronomical 37% strikeout rate.

It seems absurd to dismiss a teenager who swatted 38 homers in full-season ball while missing 33 games–that sort of accomplishment basically never happens. Had he stayed healthy for the whole season, Gallo almost certainly would have eclipsed the South Atlantic League record of 40 homers in a season, and probably would’ve broken the Low-A record of 42. He already holds the Arizona League homer record, with 18, set in 2012…despite being promoted early and missing 13 games. He has remarkable power. On the other hand, there’s only one player who has ever struck out more than Gallo did in Low-A and done anything in the majors: Russell Branyan, who struck out 38.7% of the time in 1995, then repeated the level in 1996 and set the aforementioned SAL record with 40 bombs.

So, Gallo combines monumental power with a very troubling inability to make contact. Today, I’m going to take a detailed look at what is going on to provide such extreme statistics and see how his skillset needs to evolve for him to attain major league success.

Read the rest of this entry »

On August 6, the White Sox promoted starting pitcher Chris Beck from High-A Winston-Salem to Double-A Birmingham. A common question I heard when that news broke was “Isn’t that rushing him, since his strikeout rate is low?”

My response to that line of questioning was always “No, he’ll be fine.” And indeed he was, making five great starts in Birmingham down the stretch (28 IP, 22/3 K/BB, 0 HR, 2.89 ERA, 2.16 FIP). Ending his first full professional season by overmatching Double-A hitters is a great sign, but what of the low strikeout rate? How does the 76th overall pick of the 2012 draft project?

Read the rest of this entry »

Albany, New York — In a game in which one team would head home to off-season jobs, and another would advance to the New York Penn League Championship, the highlights came from a pitcher’s duel and timely hitting — by top draft picks and lesser-known talents alike.

The Tri-City Valley Cats went on that night to shut out the Aberdeen Iron Birds 3-0 in the best-of-three series, advancing to the finals.

Aberdeen’s Hunter Harvey and Tri-City’s Kyle Westwood got the start for their teams, and both kept the game scoreless through six innings.

Read the rest of this entry »

At this point, it’s fairly well-accepted that the vaunted Jesus Montero/Michael Pineda trade has not worked out especially well for either the Yankees or the Mariners. Montero has hit all of .252/.293/.377 while playing poor defense and amassing -1.0 WAR; meanwhile, Hector Noesi has gone 2-13 with a 5.79 ERA, 5.36 FIP, and -0.7 WAR. Montero’s been the second-worst catcher of the past two seasons according to WAR, whereas Noesi has been the third-worst pitcher (min. 100 IP). Meanwhile, Pineda has yet to throw an inning for the Yankees due to injury problems.

Indeed, the only player of the four in that deal who was healthy and remotely effective for the duration of the 2013 season was the throw-in on the other side, Jose Campos. Of course, the level he was effective at was Low-A, and Campos has endured his own post-trade misfortune, making five starts in 2012 before being shut down with elbow problems and missing the rest of the season. But he once was considered arguably the top pitching prospect in short-season ball, and he did have a fine season this year, with a 3.41 ERA, 2.87 FIP, and 77/16 K/BB in 87 2/3 innings (The low innings total was due to an extremely short leash–with the exception of one outing, he was only allowed to work 2-4 innings each time out–not an abbreviated season). So what exactly do the Yankees have here?

Read the rest of this entry »

Hudson Valley, NY — Hudson Valley infielder Darryl George gave the team a boost at a crucial point.

In his final games, he stayed consistent, giving the playoff-hopeful Renegades a shot.

In what was a must-win that the team lost, George’s skill set, and what the Australian native needs to improve, were showcased.

Read the rest of this entry »

Welcome to September Prospect Watch, where we look at prospect types who could see big league playing time after rosters expand.

Cleveland Indians
RP Chen Lee

Lee isn’t a future closer for the Indians — that title goes to Cody Allen — but the right-hander has the ability to dominate same-handed batters with his deceptive delivery and sinker/slider combination. Lee should see action in September, and he should be able to rack up some Ks if used correctly.

Read the rest of this entry »

One of the most common South Atlantic League prospects mentioned as a big sleeper this year was (now-former) West Virginia second baseman Dilson Herrera. The 19-year-old middle infielder combined a wide variety of skills and was producing well across the board in his first full minor league season.

This week, Herrera entered a more generalized baseball consciousness, as he was the key piece sent from the Pirates to the Mets in the John Buck/Marlon Byrd deal. There’s been some debate since the trade regarding exactly where Herrera stands as a prospect–some really like him, while others are more hesitant to fully get on board the hype train. I’m probably more in the former camp.

Read the rest of this entry »

Brooklyn, New York — On a balmy August night, in the midst of a playoffs push, in a sixteen inning game in Coney Island, Tri-City Valley Cats Conrad Gregor’s multiple skills were on display.

Facing the rival Brooklyn Cyclones, with Tri City leading the Stedler Division by three games, and Brooklyn trailing in McNamara by a half game, there was plenty of opportunity for Gregor to show what he’s capable of. (Tri City would win the game 5-3.)

Read the rest of this entry »

Welcome to September Prospect Watch, where we look at prospect types who could see big league playing time after rosters expand.

Milwaukee Brewers
The Brewers don’t have a whole lot in the way of MLB ready talent, and they’ve already called up Khristopher Davis and given him ample playing time in the majors. Another option for September would be starter Jimmy Nelson, but he’s neither a big time prospect nor a starter who’s going to perform well out of the gates.

Read the rest of this entry »