Archive for Prospects

Minor Fantasy News: Demotions Part 2

Yesterday, we took a look at some of the pitchers that were recently demoted to the minors. Today, we’ll highlight some position players – who could still have impacts on the MLB 2009 season – that were sent down to the minors in the last few days.

After a breakout 2008 season, Drew Sutton has positioned himself to be the Houston Astros’ second baseman of the future. For the time being, though, it appears that Kaz Matsui, despite currently hitting .054 in 37 spring at-bats, will be ‘The Man’ while Sutton continues to work on his game in Triple-A. Last season in Double-A, the 25-year-old infielder hit .317/.408/.523 with 20 homers and 20 steals in 520 Double-A at-bats. Sutton also hit very well in the Arizona Fall League.

The Pirates demoted two third-base prospects in recent days in Pedro Alvarez and Neil Walker, both former No. 1 draft picks by the organization. Alvarez has a much higher ceiling than Walker, who could eventually become trade bait – unless one of the two players moves somewhere else on the diamond. Despite not having a minor league at-bat yet, after signing late last year, Alvarez may be more MLB-ready than Walker, who spent 2008 in Triple-A and hit .242 with a walk rate of 5.4%. Walker hit .231 this spring in 39 at-bats, while Alvarez killed the ball with a .444 average in just 18 at-bats. Fellow youngster Andy LaRoche will have first shot at the third-base job in Pittsburgh and is hitting .483 in 29 at-bats.

He doesn’t have a ceiling as high as some of the other players on this list but Tug Hulett has the potential to be a solid regular – or a utility player capable of hitting .270-.280 with more than his fair share of walks. He was obtained off waivers by the Royals from the Seattle Mariners organization during a 40-man roster crunch and had a shot at being KC’s second baseman in 2009. However, displaced outfielder Mark Teahen is having a lights-out spring and could end up at the position despite average-at-best defense. Hulett received just nine spring at-bats.

Jarrett Hoffpauir has posted some solid numbers in the last couple of seasons in the Cardinals organization. Combined with the club’s desperate need for a second baseman, Hoffpauir seemed like a perfect fit. However, despite hitting .333 in 18 at-bats without a strikeout, the 25 year old was an early spring cut. The Cardinals organization appears to favor outfielder-turned-second-baseman Skip Schumaker and minor league vet Joey Thurston. Another surprising early cut for the Cardinals, outfielder Brian Barton spent the entire 2008 season with the club after being a Rule 5 draft pick out of the Cleveland organization.

The White Sox demoted catcher Cole Armstrong, 25, to the minors yesterday. He was an early favorite to back-up veteran A.J. Pierzynski, but both players are left-handed batters, which hurt Armstrong’s chances. The job will now likely go to someone like minor league vet Corky Miller or Chris Stewart. The club could also consider a veteran castoff like Josh Bard, who was just let go by the Red Sox.


Minor Fantasy News: Demotions

We’ll take a quick break from previewing the top impact rookies for 2009 to take a look at some of the prospects that were sent down to the minor leagues in recent days. This post will touch on some of the pitchers that are near-MLB-ready, while a later post will look at the hitters.

Brett Cecil (Toronto) had an impressive spring and almost made the club despite having just been drafted in 2007. The former college reliever was also slowed by arm problems early in 2008 and had a strict pitch count for much of the season. Now a starter, the southpaw will begin the year in Triple-A to work on his fastball command, but he could surface before long with the likes of Matt Clement and Scott Richmond still in the mix for the Jays starting rotation. He has above-average stuff – including an 88-93 mph fastball – for a lefty.

Jose Ceda (Florida) was acquired in the off-season from the Cubs for reliever Kevin Gregg. Although still raw, Ceda was considered a long-shot candidate for saves in the Florida bullpen for 2009. A sore shoulder has kept the hard-throwing right-hander from pitching in game situations this spring. The 22 year old struck out 42 batters in 30.1 Double-A innings in 2008.

Teammates Jake Arrieta and Chris Tillman (Baltimore) are arguably the top two pitchers in the Orioles system but both were reassigned to the minor league camp and will open the year in either Double-A or Triple-A. Given the state of the big club’s starting rotation (Adam Eaton, Danys Baez, etc.), both pitchers could be in the Majors by May or June. Arrieta, 23, allowed just 80 hits in 113 High-A innings in 2008. Tillman, 20, allowed 115 hits in 135.2 Double-A innings in 2008. Both have the ceiling of No. 2 starters at the Major League level. David Hernandez was optioned to Triple-A after appearing in just one spring game (and one inning) in which he walked two. He could see his first MLB action as a long man in the bullpen at some point in 2009, although he could also get a shot at starting. Hernandez allowed 112 hits in 142 Double-A innings in 2008.

With the veteran starters pitching well, the Cardinals felt comfortable sending down pitching prospects Jess Todd and Mitch Boggs. Todd, a reliever-turned-starter, struggled a bit this spring by allowing nine hits in 6.1 innings and will likely begin the year in Triple-A. He’s the clubs best starting pitching prospect, so he could make his MLB debut before too long if Chris Carpenter’s injury woes pop up again, or if Joel Pineiro and/or Todd Wellemeyer start pitching like their old selves. Boggs’ ceiling is below that of Todd’s but he also has more MLB experience, after making eight appearances in 2008. That said, he allowed a 7.41 ERA at the MLB level. He’s battled shoulder problems this spring so he’ll get that sorted out in Triple-A.

Wade Davis and Mitch Talbot (Tampa Bay) both received a demotion to Triple-A, thanks to the club’s depth in the starting rotation (Who would have said that two years ago?). Davis is considered the club’s brightest pitching prospect (not named David Price) and could be the first starter called up if injuries strike. Talbot is a little under-the-radar as a prospect, but he’s won 26 games in the past two seasons at Triple-A and has little left to prove in the minors. The 25-year-old hurler is a little too hittable, though, and is probably a long-term reliever at the MLB level.

Although technically no longer a rookie, Ian Kennedy (New York AL) has fewer than 60 innings pitched at the Major League level and he was sent packing with a veteran-heavy rotation (plus Joba) already established. Kennedy is quickly falling out of favor in New York and he did not help himself this spring with a 5.91 ERA in four games. He was also out-pitched by fellow youngster Phil Hughes who survived the cuts, although the latter has been struggling with his control.


2009 Impact Rookie: Chris Perez

The ninth inning has been a tumultuous time for St. Louis Cardinals fans in recent years – with the 2008 season being no different. Three players saved seven or more games last year: starter-turned-reliever Ryan Franklin (3.55 ERA) with 17, former closer Jason Isringhausen (5.70) with 12 and rookie Chris Perez (3.46) with seven. Although he appeared in 41 games, Perez is still a rookie for 2009 in most people’s eyes because he did not surpass the magical 50 IP mark.

Isringhausen, now with Tampa Bay, was the Cardinals go-to guy for much of his seven seasons in St. Louis and he saved 217 games. However, he was never a truly dominating closer and he blew 38 save opportunities his seven seasons. Isringhausen also struggled mightily in 2006 and 2008 with a total of 17 blown saves in 62 opportunities. Although Franklin saved 17 games in 2008, he is not considered the long-term solution given his average stuff, eight blown saves last year and age (36).

The future likely belongs to former college closer Perez, although manager Tony LaRussa is not going to entrust a young pitcher in such a vital position without absolute proof that he is the best man for the job. Perez had a solid debut season with 34 hits allowed in 41.2 innings of work. He posted a respectable strikeout rate at 9.07 K/9 but he struggled with his control (which has been the knock on him) by posting a rate of 4.75 BB/9. Perez relied heavily on two pitches out of the pen: a fastball that averaged 95 mph, and a slider.

So far this spring, he has allowed three runs in five innings, with three strikeouts and three walks. Fellow rookie Jason Motte – another hard-throwing reliever albeit with less polish – has allowed just one earned run in five innings but also has seven strikeouts and no walks. Perez has one save on the spring, while Motte, a 26-year-old converted catcher, has two. It’s clear that Perez is not going to be handed the closer’s role this April when teams break camp. He has plenty of competition and LaRussa could simply go with a closer-by-committee or simply call on the pitcher with the hot hand – or play match-ups.

Over time, though, Perez should be the favorite to earn saves in St. Louis for the long haul. In 2009, expect a 3.50 ERA with 10-12 saves in 65 innings pitched with about 30 walks and 70 strikeouts. If he does worm his way into a more regular role as the team’s closer, be prepared to snap him up.


2009 Impact Rookie: Matt LaPorta

Despite losing one of the best starting pitchers in Major League Baseball with the trade of C.C. Sabathia, the Cleveland Indians received one of the most talented up-and-coming sluggers in return from the Milwaukee Brewers. Matt LaPorta was selected seventh overall by the Brewers in the 2007 amateur draft after a four-year stay at the University of Florida.

With a young star named Prince Fielder already established at first base in Milwaukee, LaPorta was shifted off his traditional defensive position to left field. Most scouts felt the move was suicide and that the below-average-fielding first baseman would be lost in left. LaPorta’s play, though, has some now feeling that he could be a fringe-average outfielder at the Major League level. However, with the trade to Cleveland, the right-handed hitting slugger could settle into a big league gig at first base and/or designated hitter.

Currently, the club has the oft-injured Travis Hafner (left-handed hitter), and Ryan Garko (right-handed) filling the 1B/DH roles. LaPorta’s prodigious power (.577 career slugging) could match that of Hafner’s in his prime, and surpass anything that Garko (career .447 SLG, .404 in 2008) might have to offer. Hafner’s power output and slugging percentages have dropped off dramatically in the past two seasons (.451 SLG in 2007 and .323 in 2008).

LaPorta’s first full pro season was spent in Double-A in 2008, first in the Milwaukee organization (302 at-bats), and then in the Cleveland system (60 at-bats). He also spent time playing in the Olympics after the trade, where he suffered a concussion that plagued him for the remainder of the season. During his time at Double-A with Milwaukee, LaPorta hit .288/.402/.576 with an ISO of .288. He also showed his prowess as a run-producer by driving in 66 batters in just 84 games. LaPorta also posted solid rates: 13.0 BB% and 20.9 K%.

The Florida native has been seeing plenty of playing time this spring with Cleveland and is currently hitting .300/.391/.550 in eight games. There is not a lot of work he needs to do in the minors, although breaking balls still give him some trouble. LaPorta could very well open the season in Cleveland – or surface by May. If he does play the majority of the season in Cleveland, expect about 20 home runs, as well as a .260 average to go along with a healthy dose of walks and a pile of strikeouts. With experience, LaPorta will likely raise his average and cut down on the strikeouts.


2009 Impact Rookie: Adam Miller

What should we make of Adam Miller?

The right-handed pitching prospect has been frustrating the Cleveland Indians organization and its fans since he was selected out of a Texas high school with the 31st overall selection in the 2003 draft. Now 24, he has yet to make his MLB debut despite entering his seventh pro season (Top high-school prospects usually take about four years to sniff the Majors).

Miller has lasted a full season in the minors only once – in 2006 and he won 15 games in Double-A with a 2.75 ERA (3.03 FIP), 129 hits allowed in 153.2 innings, as well as rates of 2.52 BB/9 and 9.20 K/9. The next two seasons at Triple-A, he managed a total of just 25 games (17 starts) and allowed 94 hits in 94 innings. The latest injury problem for Miller has been a tendon in a finger on his pitching hand and it’s already caused him issues this spring, which is worrisome to say the least.

Miller entered the spring with a very good shot of making the team as a reliever, which would have theoretically helped his chances of staying healthy. He’s probably Triple-A bound for the third straight season now, but he could make his MLB debut before long. Cleveland has pretty good depth in the starting rotation, although few can match Miller’s potential – as his stuff is still solid with a fastball that can touch the upper 90s with a dominating slider. The health of two fellow injury-prone starters, Carl Pavano and Anthony Reyes, could eventually open up a spot for Miller. New closer Kerry Wood, formerly of the Cubs, is also an injury risk, which could create a hole in the bullpen.

From a fantasy perspective, Miller will likely be extremely frustrating – as a starter or reliever. He has the stuff to dominate – and he could be an impact arm during the 2009 season at the Major League level. But he could also break your heart if you rely on him too heavily.


Devilish Injury Strikes Angels’ Rotation

Spring training just does not seem to agree with Angels starting pitchers. Last year, the top two projected arms in the rotation (John Lackey and Kelvim Escobar) were felled by health issues. While ace Lackey (triceps) returned in mid-May and turned in another solid campaign, number two man Escobar (shoulder) never threw a pitch for the big league club in 2008.

Unfortunately, a health issue has once again knocked out LAA’s projected number two starter, as Ervin Santana will begin the 2009 campaign on the disabled list with a sprained medial collateral ligament (also known as UCL, the stabilizing ligament in the elbow made famous by Tommy John Surgery). The timing is especially disappointing for both the Angels and fantasy owners, as Santana had just turned in a highly promising season (4.55 K/BB ratio, 3.30 FIP) an inked a four-year, $30M contract extension during the offseason.

With Santana shelved, the Angels must now select two starters from a group that includes Dustin Moseley, Shane Loux and Nicholas Adenhart.

Moseley began the 2008 season as Los Angeles’ fifth starter, making five early season starts. In all, the right-hander made 10 starts for the club as well as two relief appearances. The results look downright ugly (6.79 ERA), but an unangelic .379 BABIP did him no favors. Moseley’s FIP was a more tolerable 4.52 in 50.1 innings of work, as he posted rates of 6.62 K/9 and 3.58 BB/9.

His work in AAA, however, inspires little confidence. Moseley struck out 6.4 batters per nine innings and walked 2.62, but he surrendered nearly 1.8 HR/9. The 6-4, 190 pounder was once considered a gifted prospect (the Reds drafted him in the first round back in 2000), but he’s definitely more of a finesse pitcher these days. The 27 year-old features an 88-90 MPH fastball, a mid-70’s curve and a low-80’s changeup.

Loux is another low-octane right-hander. The 6-2, 235 pounder, formerly a Tigers prospect, went five years between big league performances. After last reaching the majors in 2003, Loux tossed 16 frames for the Angels last season. Loux spent some time with the Royals in ’06 and was released by the Mariners prior to 2007, at which point he contemplated hanging up his cleats. While donning the tools of ignorance a pitching prospect in an indoor facility, Loux switched places with the guy for a few pitches and impressed the facility owner. The owner referred Loux to an Angels scout. Returning to the mound in ’08, Loux posted rates of 5.02 K/9 and 2.61 BB/9 with AAA Salt Lake City. The 29 year-old kills some worms (51.8 GB% in AAA) with a 90 MPH sinker and a hard mid-80’s slider.

Adenhart entered the 2008 season as the pride and joy of the Angels’ player development system. The lanky right-hander was considered a premier prospect in the 2004 amateur draft, but an elbow injury caused him to fall to the 14th round. Undeterred, the Angels ponied up $710K for Adenhart’s services. Possessing a low-90’s heater, a sharp curveball and a changeup, Adenhart got his career off to a great start. After punching out over a batter per inning in rookie ball in 2005, he split the ’06 season between Low-A and High-A, whiffing around eight hitters per nine innings while issuing around 2.5 walks per nine.

Bumped up to AA for the 2007 campaign, Adenhart threw 153 innings with rates of 6.82 K/9 and 3.82 BB/9. He got off to a superficially impressive start in 2008 at AAA and received a call-up to the majors, but he was beaten like a drum in three starts: 12 IP, 18 hits, 12 runs, 4/13 K/BB ratio. Returned to Salt Lake, Adenhart struck out an adequate 6.81 per nine but his control took a step backward (4.64 BB/9). Despite his struggles, the 22 year-old still has plenty of believers in the scouting community (Baseball America named him LAA’s #1 prospect during the offseason). However, Adenhart’s turbulent big league introduction and erratic work at AAA suggest that he’s not big league ready.


2009 Impact Rookie: Taylor Teagarden

The Texas Rangers organization is rich in backstops. The club traded veteran catcher Gerald Laird to the Detroit Tigers this past winter (for much-needed young pitchers Guillermo Moscoso and Carlos Melo), which still left the club with three young players at the position.

Jarrod Saltalamacchia, who was obtained from Atlanta in 2007 in the Mark Teixeira deal, has the most experience at the position with 154 games at the Major League level. In 198 MLB at-bats in 2008, the 23-year-old switch-hitter batted .253/.352/.364. Max Ramirez, obtained in 2007 from Cleveland for Kenny Lofton, made his MLB debut this past season and appeared in 17 games. The 24-year-old spent the majority of his season in Double-A and hit .354/.450/.646 in 243 at-bats.

The best of the bunch though – and most well-rounded – is Taylor Teagarden, whom the club drafted out of the University of Texas in the third round of the 2005 draft. The 25-year-old’s road to the Majors was slowed by injuries (including Tommy John surgery on his throwing elbow), but he made his MLB debut in 2008 and hit .319/.396/.809 with six home runs in just 47 at-bats.

Earlier in the season, while playing at Double-A and Triple-A, Teagarden struggled to hit for average but was once again battling injuries. In 2007, split between High-A and Double-A, the right-handed hitting catcher slugged 27 home runs and hit .308 combined. Teagarden is not likely to hit for a high average in the Majors, despite his previous averages, but the power is for real. He has a long swing and has trouble making consistent contact with strikeout rates of more than 30.0 K% in his career.

Regardless of his offensive contributions, the Texas native will be a valuable MLB catcher based solely on his defense. Teagarden was considered the best defensive catcher in college in 2005 – and possibly in the entire draft that season. In fact, some scouts had serious questions about his ability to hit professional pitching, but almost everyone agreed that he would play in the Majors thanks to his potential Gold Glove defense. He is also a leader on the field and throws well (38% caught stealing in 2008).

Although Saltalamacchia and Ramirez may offer a little more offense – especially in terms of average and consistency, Teagarden is the better all-around-player due to his defensive contributions (the other two are average at best behind the dish) and power threat. From a fantasy perspective, expect a .240-.250 average with 15-20 home runs if he gets the lion’s share of the playing time in 2009.


2009 Impact Rookie: Tommy Hanson

The Atlanta Braves’ starting pitching picture (say that three times fast) has changed dramatically since the 2008 season came to a disappointing end for the organization. Once a strength for the club, the starting rotation was inconsistent in 2008 despite the emergence of Jair Jurrjens and, to a certain degree, Jorge Campillo.

The club has worked hard to improve the rotation and it added veterans Javier Vazquez, Tom Glavine, and Derek Lowe over the winter. The Braves organization also brought in Japanese starter Kenshin Kawakami. If all the veterans are healthy on opening day, Jurrjens will likely take the fifth spot in the rotation with Campillo sliding to the bullpen.

Should a starting pitcher succumb to injury, though, Tommy Hanson will be waiting in the wings to prove himself. The right-hander broke out in a big way in 2008 by posting a 0.90 ERA in seven High-A starts. He allowed just 15 hits in 40 innings of work and posted rates of 2.48 BB/9 and 11.03 K/9. Hanson then was promoted to Double-A where he allowed 70 hits in 98 innings and posted rates of 3.77 BB/9 and 10.47 K/9.

After the season, Hanson appeared in the Arizona Fall League and dominated some of the best prospects in baseball by posting a 0.63 ERA in 28.2 innings. He allowed just 10 hits and struck out 49 batters. The 6’6” pitcher needs to induce a few more ground balls and left-handed batters have hit 30 points higher against Hanson than righties in his career. His repertoire includes four pitches that are average or better: an 88-93 mph fastball, slider, curveball and change-up.

With all the moves made by the big club in the 2008-09 off-season, Hanson is all but certain to begin the season in Triple-A but he seems to have surpassed both Jo-Jo Reyes, and Charlie Morton on the depth chart, despite the fact both hurlers have big league experience. Given enough innings, Hanson could have a significant impact on the Major League club in 2009. He’s certainly one of the best starting pitcher prospects in keeper leagues.


2009 Impact Rookie: Andrew McCutchen

Outfielder Andrew McCutchen has been on the prospect map ever since high school – when he was selected in the first round by Pittsburgh in 2005. The Florida native has been one of the Pirates’ top offensive prospects since signing his first pro contract and he spent all of 2008 in Triple-A at the age of 21.

McCutchen was originally supposed to develop into a five-tool player, but his power has not developed as planned (.115 ISO in 2008), although he did steal 34 bases in 53 attempts last season. Overall, he hit .283/.372/.398 in 512 at-bats. McCutchen also posted rates of 11.7 BB%, which was higher than his career average, and 17.0 K%. His strikeout rates have lowered from where they sat earlier in his career, which shows he’s making adjustments and coming to grips with the type of player that he is (ie. Not a power hitter). Defensively, McCutchen is an above-average fielder, but his arm is just average for center field.

The Pirates organization has slowly gathered together a very impressive young outfield that will eventually include McCutchen, Jose Tabata (obtained from the Yankees in the Xavier Nady deal), and Brandon Moss (obtained from the Red Sox in the Jason Bay trade). Toss in the already-established Nate McLouth and the powerful Steve Pearce (who could see time at first base as well) and you have five players with bright futures.

Word out of Pittsburgh is that the club plans to have McCutchen begin the season in Triple-A again, but he has also received the most at-bats of any player this spring – although he is just 1-for-13 with seven strikeouts and may be pressing. Pearce, McLouth and Moss appear to have the inside tracks on starting jobs. The club also has veteran utility player Eric Hinske on hand, as well as the speedy Nyjer Morgan. Tabata has been slowed by injuries this spring and should also be in Triple-A to begin 2009.

McCutchen likely won’t be down for long and could very well push Pearce or Moss to a platoon or part-time role by the All-Star break. If McCutchen gets half a season at the Major League level, expect a batting average of around .270 and 10-15 stolen bases. He won’t be a star immediately, but he could definitely help Fantasy owners in the second half of the season who are in need of cheap steals. McCutchen is a great choice for keeper leagues too.


Pondering Purcey’s Potential

Those who are big, left-handed and throw very hard have a way of getting a preponderance of opportunity in professional baseball. Toronto’s David Purcey fit this axiom rather well during the first few years of his career. The 16th overall selection in the 2004 amateur draft, Purcey occasionally made scouts all tingly with his low-to-mid-90’s gas, but he also had them reaching for the antacids on a regular basis due to his scattershot control.

The former Oklahoma Sooner made his full-season debut in 2005, with Dunedin of the High-A Florida State League. Purcey displayed the high-octane stuff that garnered him high accolades, with an eye-popping 11.06 K/9 in 94.1 innings. However, in a sign of things to come, he also allowed 5.34 BB/9. Despite Purcey’s issues in keeping the ball around the dish, the Jays bumped him up AA New Hampshire, where he continued to both impress (9.42 K/9) and infuriate (5.23 BB/9) in 43 frames of work. Calling him a “physical pitcher with power stuff”, Baseball America ranked Purcey as the third-best prospect in Toronto’s system on the basis of a heater with plus velocity, a 12-to-6 curve and a developing changeup.

Returned to the Eastern league to begin the 2006 season, Purcey’s prospect status stagnated. The 6-4, 245 pounder posted rates of 8.25 K/9 and 4.48 BB/9 in 88.1 IP. His ERA (5.60) overstated the extent of his struggles (his BABIP was .354; the quality of defense in the minors is lower, but that’s still pretty lofty), but the walks and a 4.59 FIP were still underwhelming. Like the previous year, Purcey received a promotion despite his lack of precision. In 51.2 innings for AAA Syracuse, the $1.6M man struck out 7.84 batters per nine innings but lost all semblance of control, with 6.62 BB/9. Not surprisingly, Purcey’s FIP was a grisly 5.54.

Following that campaign, Purcey fell to 9th on BA’s list of Jays farm hands. BA continued to point out his virtues, noting that “few left-handers can match the raw stuff Purcey possesses” and praising his fastball and biting curveball as “plus pitches.” However, his “large build and inconsistent release point” also led to speculation about a conversion to the bullpen.

After several years of frustrating the scouting community, Purcey appeared to make some legitimate strides to begin the 2007 campaign. The Jays dropped the big southpaw back down to AA, and he responded. His ERA (5.37) in 62 innings didn’t tell the real story: he continued to miss bats (7.98 K/9), but his LaLoosh-like control was much improved. He pared his walk rate down to 2.32 batters per nine innings, posting a 3.23 FIP.

Unfortunately, just as Purcey appeared to be making good on his draft status, injury struck. Purcey had to go under the knife in June to have cysts removed from his forearm and triceps. BA dubbed him the 9th-best prospect in Toronto’s system again, reporting that Purcey sacrificed a little velocity on his fastball for increased command: “Purcey is capable of dialing his fastball up to 93-95 MPH, but the Blue Jays have toned him down to the low 90’s to improve his location.”

Healthy and aware that well-placed low-90’s heat tops random mid-90’s flinging, Purcey turned in a very nice season back at AAA Syracuse in 2008. In 117 frames, he improved his K rate (9.31) while also displaying sharp control for the first extended period of his career (2.62 BB/9).

With a 3.56 K/BB ratio and a 2.99 FIP, Purcey earned a call-up to the majors for good in late July (he had brief cameos in April and May). The 26 year-old’s first taste of the bigs was a mixed bag: relying heavily on a 91 MPH fastball (thrown about 70% of the time), Purcey compiled a 4.67 FIP. He used the fastball, a hard mid-80’s slider, mid-70’s curve and an occasional low-80’s change to punch out 8.03 batters per nine innings, though he was a bit generous with the free passes (4.02 BB/9).

Entering the 2009 season, Purcey appears to have a great chance of making the Jays out of camp. Toronto was a wonderful run-prevention club in ’08, but with Burnett in the Bronx, Marcum recovering from TJ surgery and McGowan still working his way back from shoulder surgery, the Jays’ rotation is a land of opportunity at the moment.

Purcey’s progression from inconsistent flame-thrower to savvy low-90’s strike-thrower is a great example of radar gun readings being just one of many components that combine to make a pitcher successful. You could do much worse than deciding to take a flyer on Purcey in the later rounds. He’s got talent, opportunity and a better understanding of what it takes to be successful at his craft.