Let’s have a look at some of the prospects doing well during the fall developmental league in Arizona. All the players listed below could pop up on Major League rosters in 2010, so you may want to remember their names.

Andrew Lambo, OF, Los Angeles NL
Lambo is having some luck in the AFL after a down year in double-A as a 20 year old (He turned 21 recently). During the regular season, the outfielder hit .256/.311/.407 in 492 at-bats. He posted a low BABIP at .298 and did not walk much (7.3 BB%). The left-handed batter did show good gap power with 39 doubles (and 11 homers). Interestingly, he hits southpaws better than right-handers: .317/.372/.523 vs .270/.333/.422 in his three-year career. Manny Ramirez will be a free agent after the 2010 season, right about the time Lambo should be ready for a full-time gig in the Majors. With Ramirez’ advancing age, it becomes more likely that he could spend time on the disabled list in ’10. Lambo could be one of the first players in line for playing time should that happen.

Jordan Danks, OF, Chicago AL
The key with the AFL is too not get too excited with the batting average or how many homers a player hits. Most players are there for extra work, which likely means there is something that they need to improve upon. Danks is a perfect example of that… He was off to an excellent season in ’09 before fading at double-A in the second half. His raw power does not play well in games, in terms of home run power, and he hit just nine homers this past year in just over 400 at-bats. As a result, his strikeout rate of 26.0% is rather high. Danks has made nice strides in the AFL by striking out just 10 times in 58 at-bats. Even better, he’s walk 12 times. If he can keep that up, it will significantly improve his other numbers, which will then make him a more valuable addition to your fantasy squads.

Josh Wilkie, RHP, Washington
The non-drafted free agents are always a good story. Wilkie went undrafted out of George Washington University and he was picked up by the Nationals shortly after the ’06 draft. He posted solid numbers in high-A ball in ’08 and he made it all the way to triple-A in ’09. The right-hander, who is eligible for the Rule 5 draft, began this past season in double-A, where he allowed 48 hits in 49.1 innings. He also posted a walk rate of 2.37 BB/9 and a strikeout rate of 7.30 K/9. His rates improved in 22.1 triple-A innings to 1.61 BB/9 and 10.07 K/9. He also improved his ground-ball rate over ’08 by almost 10% to 54% in ’09. Wilkie has saved 23 games over the past four seasons in the minors, so he has an outside shot of eventually becoming a setup man, and possibly grabbing a few saves here and there, although he does not have a knock-out repertoire: 88-91 fastball, curveball, change-up.

Josh Judy, RHP, Cleveland
A good, reliable reliever is hard to find. Judy is off to a good start in his career. Judy has a better chance of seeing save opportunities in the Majors than Wilkie (above) because the Indians prospect has a stronger repertoire: 90-94 mph fastball, slider and occasional change-up. This past season in double-A, the 23-year-old hurler allowed 35 hits in 49.1 innings of work. He posted a walk rate of 3.28 BB/9 and a strikeout rate of 11.49 K/9. Judy also allowed just two homers (0.36 HR/9). He does a nice job of keeping the ball on the ground with a career ground-ball rate right around 50%. In ’09, Judy limited batters to a line-drive rate of just 9.6%. If Chris Perez or Jess Todd (or dare I say Adam Miller) are not the long-term closer answer in Cleveland, Judy could be.

Donnie Veal, LHP, Pittsburgh
Is he just teasing us? Veal has long been an interesting pitcher because of his hard stuff from the left side. However, the 25-year-old hurler has never been able to find the plate on a consistent basis. For example, in 16.1 MLB innings in ’09 out of the ‘pen, Veal posted a walk rate of 11.02 BB/9. However, in 12.2 innings in the AFL, he has allowed just two walks. Don’t get too excited, due to the small sample size and level of competition, but keep an eye on Veal in spring training to see if his adjustments stick for the long term. If they do, keep him in mind in deep NL leagues if you need an extra starter. He could even end up as a closer in Pittsburgh, where he could stick to his fastball/curve combo.

The news was not overly great in prospect land this week, as three of the top hitters in the Arizona Fall League had to shut it down for the off-season, thanks to injuries. One of the top pitching prospects in the game had an even worse week, as he underwent Tommy John surgery.

Mike Stanton | OF | Florida Marlins
The injury to Stanton is unfortunate because he was really hitting well in the fall league after slumping for much of the second half of the year after being promoted from high-A to double-A. The good news, though, is that his back injury is not considered serious and that the club pulled him as a precaution, more than anything. However, back injuries do have a habit of lingering and/or reoccurring, especially in power hitters who take massive cuts. With any luck, though, the rest will alleviate the problem a lot quicker in the off-season than it would during the regular schedule.

After slamming 39 homers in low-A ball in 2008, Stanton hit another 28 in ’09 while splitting his time between high-A and double-A. Massive strikeout numbers – 33.1% – were at least partially to blame for his struggles in double-A. The outfield prospect will not turn 20 until November, so he has plenty of time to harness his swing. He’ll probably stick in double-A for a good portion of 2010 and likely won’t see significant playing time in the Majors until 2011. There are really no players on the Major League squad that could stand in his way, especially with Jeremy Hermida likely on his way out of town this winter (either by trade or non-tendering).

Jason Heyward | OF | Atlanta Braves
Like Stanton, Heyward suffered an injury (to his leg/hamstring) that is not considered serious. The left-handed hitter just turned 20 in August and he ended the year in triple-A. Heyward opened the season in high-A, where he played 49 games before moving up to double-A, where he played another 47 games. He did miss some time during the regular season with injuries, as well, although it was not related to his leg problem. A 2007 first-round draft pick out of a Georgia high school, Heyward has risen quickly through the Braves system. He’ll likely open 2010 in triple-A but could be playing regularly in Atlanta by mid-season.

With veteran outfielder Garret Anderson likely heading out of town via free agency (or retirement), the organization will field a very young outfield in ’10 with the anchor of the group being Nate McLouth, who is signed through 2011 (plus an option for 2012). Jordan Schafer, who had a disappointing rookie campaign in ’09, is another likely starter in ’10. The club also has Ryan Church, Matt Diaz, Brandon Jones, and Gregor Blanco on the depth chart.

Dayan Viciedo | 3B | Chicago White Sox
A bad throwing elbow has shut down Viciedo for the remainder of the winter. It’s unfortunate for the third baseman because he had an opportunity to really work on his game after a modest pro debut in ’09 after signing a big contract as an international free agent out of Cuba. Viciedo hit .280/.317/.391 in double-A but he showed very little patience at the plate and his rumored plus power never showed up (.111 ISO). The 20 year old (whose age is in question) was also criticized for his weight and overall drive.

Few scouts believe Viciedo will remain at third base for long, even though current MLB third baseman Gordon Beckham will likely move back to his original position at shortstop. The Cuba native probably needs one to two more seasons in the minors to smooth out his approach at the plate and hopefully discover his power stroke, which he’ll need to be an impact fantasy player.

Jarrod Parker | RHP | Arizona Diamondbacks
Arizona’s No. 1 draft pick from 2007 was on the fast-track to the Majors before blowing out his elbow in mid-2009. Unfortunately, the club tried to take the rehab approach (which rarely works long-term) and Parker will now miss the entire 2011 season, rather than just half the year. Like the other players above, Parker is still quite young, as he will not turn 20 until November.

He made 16 starts at double-A in ’09 before getting hurt and he posted a 3.68 ERA (3.21 FIP) with a strikeout rate of 8.50 K/9. Parker has allowed just 10 home runs in 155 career innings. His ground-ball rate of 55% in ’09 makes his plus fastball all the more impressive. The track record with Tommy John surgery is good, so Parker should recover well, but it pushes back his MLB ETA, which now probably sits at late 2012. Be sure to keep that in mind, especially if you’re playing in a fantasy keeper league. The injury hurts Arizona, as well, since Parker was the organization’s only top-flight starting pitcher prospect.

The Arizona Fall League is a developmental league for prospects that either A) Need a bit of fine-tuning before reaching the Majors, B) Need extra work after missing a chunk of the ‘09 season due to injury, and/or C) Are being considered for inclusion on the 40-man roster this winter.

Scott Mathieson, RHP, Philadelphia
Following in the tradition of talented, but injury-prone Canadian pitchers, this right-hander is back on track after undergoing his second Tommy John surgery (’06, ’08). The top team in the National League is certainly hoping this one will take. Mathieson posted a 0.84 ERA in 32.1 innings – over three minor-league levels – this past year while working out of the bullpen (He was previously a starter). The 25 year old allowed just 17 hits and he showed reasonable control despite his layoff in ’08 and he struck out 34 batters. Mathieson made 13 appearances in double-A and posted a 3.20 FIP, while allowing a batting-average-against of just .155. So far in the AFL, he has yet to allow a run in five innings (four appearances). If his health sticks, Mathieson could be helping out in the bullpen in Philly by mid-to-late 2010.

Danny Gutierrez, RHP, Texas
Obtained late in the season from Kansas City after wearing out his welcome in the organization (health, attitude), Gutierrez has been impressive and an organization can never have enough pitching depth. The right-hander made just nine appearances in the regular season but he’s made three already in the AFL (including two starts). In 8.2 innings, Gutierrez has allowed five hits, five walks and seven Ks. In 2008 in low-A ball, the right-hander showed a solid ground-ball rate while also posting a strikeout rate of 10.40 K/9 in 90 low-A innings. He’s a sleeper worth keeping an eye on, although he likely won’t surface in Texas until 2011.

Ian Kennedy, RHP, New York (AL)
No longer a rookie, thanks to a total of 59.2 MLB innings over three seasons, Kennedy is looking to finally establish himself as a big-league pitchers. After missing a good portion of ’09 due to injury, he’s making up for lost time in the AFL. In three starts, Kennedy has allowed 10 hits and just one walk in 11.1 innings of work. He’s also struck out 13 batters, but he remains a fly-ball pitcher, which is dangerous for a hurler with average-at-best velocity on his fastball. Kennedy does not have a huge ceiling but he does have a track record of success in the minors and he has exceptional control. A trade out of New York this off-season will probably be the best thing for his career, but the club may not want to sell low on him. If he does end up in the National League, though, he could thrive.

Jenrry Mejia, RHP, New York (NL)
Things have not gone so well for Mejia in the AFL. After making 10 double-A starts as a 19-year-old pitcher in ’09, the right-hander has struggled in fall ball. Mejia has a 10.50 ERA and has allowed 10 hits and seven walks in 6.0 innings (three starts). The Dominican native did recover in his third start to allow just one run in three innings and he showed improved command. He is definitely talented and there is no reason to rush him to New York so he’ll likely open 2010 in double-A and will probably surface in Majors in 2011, if all goes well. Don’t worry… he’s just a young pitcher going through growing pains.

The Arizona Fall League is a developmental league for prospects that either A) Need a bit of fine-tuning before reaching the Majors, B) Need extra work after missing a chunk of the ‘09 season due to injury, and/or C) Are being considered for inclusion on the 40-man roster this winter.

Josh Bell, 3B, Baltimore
Obtained at mid-season from the Dodgers (in exchange for George Sherrill), Bell has proven to be a smart pick-up for the Orioles. The soon-to-be 23 year old posted an ISO of .281 after the trade, during 114 at-bats at double-A. Overall, he hit .297 on the season in double-A with 20 homers in 448 at-bats. He’s shown patience at the plate with two straight seasons with a +10% walk rate. So far in the AFL, he’s posting the second-highest batting average behind Florida’s Mike Stanton. Bell may need a little bit more seasoning in triple-A before taking over for long-time third baseman Melvin Mora, who is likely to depart Baltimore this winter via free agency.

Bryan Petersen, OF, Florida
A personal favorite of mine, Petersen had a 23/23 season in ’08 but followed that up in ’09 with reduction in both home runs (seven) and steals (13 in 25 attempts) in double-A. The 23 year old remains an intriguing outfield prospect, in part because he reduced his strikeout rate from more than 20% to 15.3%. He also does a nice job of getting on-base by hitting .280-.300 and he’s not afraid to take a walk (10.4%). He’s hitting .441 through seven AFL games, but he’s been caught the one time that he tried to steal. Petersen could surface in Florida by the end of ’10, especially if he can improve his base running.

Grant Desme, OF, Oakland
It’s easy to get excited about Desme’s season because the 23-year-old outfielder hit 31 homers in 486 at-bats, including a .352 ISO rate in 227 high-A at-bats. Two things work against him, though: A) He was old for low-A and old-ish for high-A, and B) He struck out more than 30% of the time. The ’09 season was the first year that he’s been healthy since signing back in ’07. Desme is currently leading the AFL in homers with seven (three more than the next closest hitter) and he’s hitting .436 despite striking out 13 times in 39 at-bats. We probably won’t see Desme in Oakland before 2011.

Freddie Freeman, 1B, Atlanta
One of the youngest hitters in the league, Freeman is struggling in the AFL. He’s hitting just .174/.296/.217 in 23 at-bats. The first baseman also stumbled at double-A in the second half of the minor league season in ’09. After scorching high-A ball earlier in the year, he hit just .248/.308/.342 in 149 at-bats. Freeman hit just .164 in August. He just turned 20 in September so there is no reason to be worried. He should be in Atlanta by mid-to-late 2011.

Jemile Weeks, 2B, Oakland
The 22-year-old Weeks is in the AFL to make up for lost time after beginning the year on the disabled list. Upon his return, he was on fire for the first two months before slumping in July; he never really hit consistently after that. His struggles continue in the AFL with a line of .182/.250/.303 through 33 at-bats. Weeks, though, is showing some patience with three walks and he’s been successful in both of his steal attempts. Weeks may debut in Oakland around the same time as Desme… 2011.

Kenji Johjima won’t be back with the Seattle Mariners next year. The 33 year-old backstop, signed out of Japan prior to the 2006 season, has decided to return home. He leaves two years and $16M on the table, as part of an ill-advised Bill Bavasi contract extension covering the 2009-2011 seasons (is “ill-advised Bill Bavasi contract” redundant?)

Johjima posted solid 2006 and 2007 campaigns, with wOBA’s of .338 and .327, respectively. However, his offense fell off a cliff in 2008 (.272 wOBA), and he turned in another mediocre season in 2009 (.305 wOBA). Johjima’s walk and strikeout rates remained stable, but his BABIP tumbled from the low-.290’s over the 2006-2007 seasons to the .240 range from 2008-2009.

That’s extremely low, but the former Fukuoka SoftBank Hawk had a few factors working against him: he hit a lot of groundballs (never a good idea for a slow-footed backstop) and he popped the ball up often (infield flies are near automatic outs).

With Johjima now out of the picture, Seattle’s internal options behind the dish are Rob Johnson and Adam Moore.

Johnson, 26, split time with Johjima this past season. The University of Houston alumnus is known more for his defensive virtues than his lumber. Johnson has authored a .270/.323/.389 line during his minor league career , including a .270/.323/.381 triple-slash in three seasons at AAA Tacoma.

The righty batter was an absolute hacker his first time around the Pacific Coast League in 2006, walking in 3.7% of his PA, punching out 22 percent and posting a lousy .258 wOBA. In 2007, he bumped that wOBA up to .311, drawing a free pass 8.5% and whiffing 14.7%. Johnson posted similar walk and strikeout numbers in 2008, but his wOBA climbed to .351 (he hit for slightly more power, but a 40 point increase in BABIP boosted that figure).

In his first extended big league trial, Johnson batted just .213/.289/.326 in 290 PA, with a .274 wOBA. On the positive side, he walked in 9.2% of his PA. But as you might expect from that line, there were plenty of problems with Johnson’s lumber.

He was jammed at a sky-high rate, with an infield/fly ball rate of 20 percent (7th-highest among batters with 250+ PA). Opposing pitchers bullied him with fastballs, as Johnson posted an ugly -1.7 run/100 pitches value against heaters (5th-worst among batters with 250+ PA). He posted a negative run value against curves, sliders, cutters and changeups, as well.

Moore, 25, is the more interesting player from a fantasy perspective. A 6th-rounder in the 2006 draft taken out of Texas-Arlington, Moore has shown considerably more offensive promise.

In 2007, he batted a robust .307/.371/.543 at High-A High Desert. That ball park is a launching pad, but his park-adjusted line of .296/.363/.498 was still pretty tasty.

Bumped up to AA West-Tennessee in 2008, Moore mashed to the tune of .319/.396/.506. He walked 8.5% of the time, with a modest 17.9% K rate and a .186 ISO.

The 6-3, 220 pound right-handed hitter split the 2009 season between AA and AAA Tacoma. Back at West-Tennessee, he showed excellent plate discipline (14.4 BB%), batting .263/.371/.411 in 116 PA.

With the Rainers, Moore posted a .294/.346/.429 triple-slash in 368 PA. He walked 7.1 percent and punched out 15 percent, with a .135 ISO. Moore was called up to Seattle in September, drawing a few starts down the stretch.

As a guy in his mid-twenties, Moore isn’t a monster prospect. But, he has enough offensive ability to be a league-average (.330-.335 wOBA) hitter. That’s pretty valuable, when one considers that the average MLB catcher hit just .254/.320/.395 in 2009. That equates to a wOBA around .324.

The Mariners could opt to bring in a veteran via free agency, but the pickings appear slim. Assuming Seattle sticks with Johnson and Moore, fantasy owners should be rooting for Moore to grab the starting gig.

Let’s have a look around the Arizona Fall League, a developmental league for prospects that either A) Need a bit of fine-tuning before reaching the Majors, B) Need extra work after missing a chunk of the ’09 season due to injury, and/or C) Are being considered for inclusion on the 40-man roster this winter.

Stephen Strasburg, RHP, Washington
As you’ve probably already heard, Strasburg (The No. 1 overall pick in June’s amateur draft) won his first official pro appearance last week. The right-hander pitched 3.1 scoreless innings and allowed just two hits and one walk. He struck out two batters but, more importantly, he recorded all eight of his in-play outs via the ground ball. A pitcher with a dominating repertoire and a significant ground-ball rate will have a lot of success. ETA: Mid-2010

Chia-Jen Lo, RHP, Houston
The 23-year-old reliever rose to double-A in his first pro season. Lo, a Taiwan native, is leading the AFL in strikeouts with six in four innings of work spread over two outings. He is also inducing a solid number of ground balls. Lo has a fastball that can touch 95 mph, as well as a splitter, slider and changeup. He should be on your watch list and a sleeper candidate for drafting in keeper leagues. He has the potential to be a future closer or set-up man. ETA: Mid-2010

Mike Stanton, OF, Florida
Stanton is swinging a hot bat despite ending the year with modest contact rates in double-A. The outfielder is currently hitting .533 (tied for third in the league) through four games. He has eight hits in 15 at-bats, including a homer. He’s struck out six times and has stolen three bases in as many attempts. If Stanton can improve his base running to the point where he can provide 10-15 steals a season, it will increase his fantasy value. ETA: Mid-2011

Chris Heisey, OF, Cincinnati
Heisey just won’t stop improving. The Cincinnati Reds’ outfield prospect is tied with Stanton in batting average through 15 at-bats. He also has four extra base hits, two walks and a stolen base. Heisey could join fellow youngsters Drew Stubbs and Jay Bruce in the Reds 2010 opening day outfield. ETA: Early 2010

Dustin Ackley, OF, Seattle
The second-overall pick in the ’09 draft, like Strasburg, is making his pro debut in the AFL. Ackley has five hits in 10 at-bats (.500) with one double. He has also stolen a base and has yet to strike out. ETA: Early 2011

Struggling: Some of the big names that are scuffling early on, include: Chris Parmelee (.000 in 10 at-bats), Brandon Allen (.118), Matt Dominguez (.154), Jason Castro (.167), Yonder Alonso (.167) and Buster Posey (.167).

The third base position in Cincinnati has been a busy place in 2009. Edwin Encarnacion began the year as the club’s starter before injuries and a subsequent trade to Toronto ended his storyline. Other players such as Adam Rosales, Drew Sutton, and Paul Janish have also spent time there, although the latter’s batting average of .217 tops the trio.

The trade of Encarnacion was made to bring in veteran Scott Rolen, a good defensive player who was having a solid offensive season with Toronto. Since coming back to the National League, Rolen has hit just .263/.342/.364 in 114 at-bats, and he was slowed with post-concussion symptoms after a beaning in one of his first games with the Reds.

Rolen is signed to a hefty contract for 2010 – and the Reds also paid a large price in young arms for him – so he’ll be the everyday guy next year, if healthy. That leaves the status of two upper-level third base prospects in limbo. Both Todd Frazier and Juan Francisco are near-MLB-ready. In fact, Francisco was called up to the Majors in September.

Both players began the year in double-A. Francisco spent the majority of time at the hot corner. He hit .281/.317/.501 with 22 homers in 437 at-bats. The left-handed hitter was then promoted to triple-A where he hit .359/.384/.598 with another five homers in 92 at-bats. That earned him his first big-league shot. On the downside of Francisco’s numbers, the 22-year-old prospect walked just 4.3% of the time in 2009, which sadly is a career high for him. A rate like that (along with a K rate of 22%) will not translate into much success in the Majors, regardless of how well he’s done in the minors. Francisco’s glove at third base also begs for the DH role in the National League.

Frazier moved to the outfield to accommodate Francisco in double-A in ’09. He’s also seen time at second base. His best position, though, remains third base. The 23-year-old prospect hit .290/.350/.481 with 40 doubles in 451 at-bats in double-A. A late-season promotion to triple-A resulted in a line of .302/.362/.476 with another five doubles in 63 at-bats. Overall, he also slugged 16 homes. His walk rate of 8.6% is not great, but it’s double what Francisco had to offer. Frazier’s strikeout rate was also about 10% lower than his teammate’s.

Neither player will see much time at the hot corner in Cincinnati in 2010, barring an injury to Rolen. Both players are still young, though, and someone will likely have to take over in 2011. The safer bet for that job would be Frazier as he is a better overall hitter and fielder. Francisco potentially has a higher upside but the walk rate is a huge concern, as the only big leaguers with a similar walk rate and strikeout rate are Clint Barmes of the Rockies and Aaron Rowand of the Giants.

Frazier could be a valuable player for the Reds, as well as fantasy managers, in 2010. He has a solid approach that leads to excellent gap power (that could easily turn into HR power with more experience) and he has the potential to hit for a solid average. His defensive versatility would also make him a flexible resource at numerous positions (2B, 3B, OF). Francisco’s three straight 20+ homer seasons may be more enticing, but Frazier remains the safer bet.

Every Thursday throughout the season, Minor Impacts takes a look at some of the hottest minor league players that could have impacts at the Major League Level in the near future. With the end to the minor league season less than a month away, many of the players we’re looking at now will be making their impacts in early-to-mid 2010. Some of the players we’ve educated you on before their promotions include: Vince Mazzaro, Andrew McCutchen, Gordon Beckham, Alex Avila, Brian Matusz, Marc Rzepczynski, Jake Fox, Nolan Reimold, Daniel Bard, Bud Norris, and Mat Latos.

Chris Carter: Oakland’s Chris Carter is an interesting prospect. A look at his numbers show massive potential with a double-A line of .334/.433/.567 in 485 at-bats. He had 40 doubles and 23 homers, as well as 106 runs driven in – the second time he’s topped 100 in as many years. Carter also maintains a solid walk rate (14.3 BB% in ’09) and he trimmed his strikeout rate by six percent over last year (30.8 to 24.3 K%). The 22-year-old first baseman also stole 13 bases in 18 attempts and recently earned a late-season promotion to triple-A. On the downside, Carter had a .404 BABIP in double-A, which is highly unsustainable. As well, scouts have questions about how well his swing will work in the Majors and he has a lot of trouble hitting breaking balls. Carter also does not have a defensive home. Despite a strong arm, he is average at best at first base due to poor hands. He’s also been tried at third base and right field, with little success. Carter is basically a designated hitter who should hit a bunch of homers and take his fair share of walks while hitting .260-.280 and piling up the Ks in the Majors.

David Lough: It’s been another depressing year in KCville. Top hitting prospects like Mike Moustakas and Eric Hosmer have underwhelmed. However, the Royals have seen a few players step forward, such as Jeff Bianchi, Jordan Parraz, and Lough. An 11th-round selection out of tiny Mercyhurst College in 2007, Lough has really played well this year after a so-so first full season in pro ball in 2008. Beginning 2009 in high-A, the left-handed hitter posted a line of .320/.370/.473 in 222 at-bats. Since moving up to double-A, Lough has continued to hit well with a line of .332/.371/.537 in 190 at-bats. The Ohio native has enough speed to steal 15-20 bases and gap power that could produce 10-15 homers. He does a nice job making contact and has the chance to be a .300 hitter in the Majors. Unfortunately, he does not walk nearly enough (5 BB% in 2009) but he keeps the strikeouts to a respectable level (14 K% in ’09). With a .119 average versus left-handers in double-A, Lough has a lot of work to do if he wants to avoid being platooned at the MLB level.

Chris Pettit: This Angels prospect has shown solid skills over the past few seasons but he just can’t stay healthy. Signed as a college senior out of Loyal Marymount University, Pettit has made the most of his solid-average abilities and he now projects to be a solid fourth outfielder and occasional starter. The right-handed hitter is a lefty killer with a line of .400/.509/.670 against them in 100 at-bats in 2009 at triple-A. Overall, Pettit has a line of .325/.383/.488 with 26 doubles and 16 steals in 326 at-bats. He does a nice job of keeping the strikeouts at bay with a rate of 15.4 K%, but his walk rates have decreased as he’s moved up the ladder (7.3 BB% in ’09). Defensively, Pettit can play all three outfield positions.

Jaime Garcia: The Cardinals organization has been absolutely snake-bitten when it comes to developing pitching prospects over the past 10 years. Southpaw Garcia was on the cusp of securing a big-league role in 2008 when he blew out his elbow and required Tommy John surgery. Control was never a huge strength of Garcia’s, but it’s looked pretty good in seven post-surgery appearances – especially considering that command and control usually suffer afterward. Still just 23, the Mexico native has plenty of time to re-firm-up his plus breaking ball. He could find himself back in the Majors by mid-2010 with the potential to be a No. 2 or 3 starter for St. Louis.

Jeremy Hellickson: This right-hander has officially passed both Jacob McGee and Wade Davis as the top pitching prospect in the Rays system. It took a little while for scouts to warm up to Hellickson because he’s not as flashy as the other two pitching prospects but he is a better all-around pitcher and far more consistent. The 22-year-old hurler began the year in double-A and allowed 41 hits in 56.2 innings of work, while posting a walk rate of 2.22 BB/9 and a strikeout rate of 9.85 K/9. Since a promotion to triple-A, he’s allowed 24 hits in 35.1 innings. He also has a 3.06 BB/9 walk rate and a 9.93 K/9 strikeout rate. Hellickson has a low-90s fastball that can touch 95 mph, as well as a curveball and changeup. He has the ceiling of a No. 2 starter. Pitching is still a strength in the organization with Matthew Moore, Nick Barnese, and Kyle Lobstein also blazing through the system.

Trystan Magnuson: Magnuson was a bit of a surprise supplemental first round draft pick in the 2007 draft, as a fifth-year senior at the University of Louisville. With multiple picks in the first few rounds, though, the Jays organization needed to save some money and it felt Magnuson would move quickly through the system. Shifted to the starting rotation in 2008 at low-A, the right-hander struggled mightily. Moved back to the ‘pen in 2009, Magnuson pitched pretty well in high-A and received a late-season promotion to double-A, which is where he should begin the 2010 season. At the rate that the Jays organization goes through pitchers, he should get a MLB shot next year if he continues to improve. Magnuson, 24, has a fastball that can touch 94 mph out of the bullpen, as well as a good (but inconsistent) slider. He also gets his fair share of worm-burning outs, and Toronto loves its ground-ball pitchers.

Robbie Weinhardt: Toronto loves ground-ball pitchers and Detroit loves its flame-throwing relievers. The organization grabbed five college relievers in the first 10 rounds of the 2008 draft with the hopes that they would provide quick relief in a system that significantly lacked pitching depth. Ryan Perry (1st round) has established himself in the Majors, while Brett Jacobson (fourth round) was used to acquire Aubrey Huff in a recent trade with Baltimore. Weinhardt, the fifth reliever taken by the Tigers (10th round), has been perhaps the second most impressive reliever taken by the Tigers in the ’08 draft. Beginning 2009 in high-A, he allowed 24 hits in 31.2 innings of work, while posting a walk rate of 2.85 BB/9 and a strikeout rate of 11.37 K/9. Moved up to double-A, the right-hander has allowed 20 hits in 25 innings of work, while allowing a walk rate of 3.96 BB/9 and a strikeout rate of 9.36 K/9. Weinhardt has a low-90s fastball that can touch 94 mph, as well as a changeup and slider. He looks like a future set-up man.

Seen on the face of things, this has not been a great season for Clay Buchholz. Neither his 3.99 ERA nor his 1.70 WHIP is attractive. He’s striking out a minuscule 5.63 batters per nine, which is especially disconcerting given his double-digit minor league strikeout rates. He’s walking 4.7 batters per nine, too. So why the renewed enthusiasm for the young pitcher in some circles?

First, his luck has never been even average in the past two years. Consider that his BABIP allowed for the past two seasons has been .366 and .328 respectively, this despite giving up 20.9% and 17.6% line drive rates in those two seasons. That last line drive rate could even be considered a good one.

To continue the “he’s better than he looks” theme, Clay’s velocity is still on it’s way up, and has increased in all three of his major league seasons. All of his offspeed stuff has rated positively in our linear weight system, and his fastball is improving. Buchholz has also had a good groundball rate that has gotten better progressively.

In fact, Keith Law addressed many of these positives in Buchholz’s game with one question and answer on his August 14 chat on ESPN.com:

Brian (MA)
Is Buchholz’s high gb% this year real? Seems to me his fastball has more sink to it this year, but was wondering your thoughts after seeing him in person.

Keith Law
I only saw one outing but I could believe it. His arm slot was a little lower and his fastball had more life than I’d seen in the past (and it was harder – 92-96).

Reading something like this, and taking into account his last 19 innings, in which he’s given up four earned runs, and had 33 groundballs to 18 flyballs, it seems obvious that we have to consult Pitch F/x to see if something has indeed changed recently.

His arm slot is certainly lower. Compare the release points from this game chart for the August 13 matchup with the Tigers to the same release points from the game chart for his July 22 matchup with the Rangers and you’ll see clearly that his release point is lower.

His usage rate on the fastball has also gone up this year. There might be two schools of thought here. If his offspeed stuff is so good, why use the fastball more? The other is more developmental: if he is to be a good pitcher someday, he’ll have to establish that fastball. At 94 MPH with more horizontal movement this year (up over an inch), Buchholz’ fastball seems to be gaining steam. Perhaps the second school has it correctly.

One thing comes clear if you look at the movement and velocity charts for this pitcher. This is not a complete product. Just look at all the movement changes (every pitch gained or lost around an inch of movement either horizontally or vertically from 2008 to 2009) and the velocity changes (again, every pitch gained almost a mile per hour from 2008 to 2009) and you’ll see that he is still in flux.

Consider his slider. Last year, he showed a 79.8 MPH slider with 0.9 inches of horizontal movement and 5.1 inches of vertical movement. This year that same slider is 84 MPH and has 2.4 inches of horizontal movement and 0.9 inches of vertical movement. Perhaps we are still waiting to see the real Clay Buchholz.

Every Thursday throughout the season, Minor Impacts takes a look at some of the hottest minor league players that could have impacts at the Major League Level in the near future. With the end to the minor league season less than a month away, many of the players we’re looking at now will be making their impacts in early-to-mid 2010. Some of the players we’ve educated you on before their promotions include: Vince Mazzaro, Andrew McCutchen, Gordon Beckham, Alex Avila, Brian Matusz, Marc Rzepczynski, Jake Fox, Nolan Reimold, Daniel Bard, Bud Norris, and Mat Latos.

Brian Bogusevic: Pitcher-to-hitter conversions have been pretty trending over the past few seasons and Bogusevic’s switch received a lot of attention last year. Things have quieted down in that regard in 2009, but the talented outfielder just keeps plugging along for Houston in triple-A. He currently has a line of .278/.354/.374, which is extremely encouraging considering that this is his first full season as a hitter. The biggest disappointment to this point has been his lack of power, something that was a strength of his in college. Currently, his ISO is just .098. However, he is hitting for a decent average, he’s stolen 18 bases in 21 tries and he’s taken his fair share of walks (10.2 BB%). Bogusevic, a left-handed hitter, does struggle against southpaws with an OPS of just .650. The 25-year-old has the potential to be a solid regular center fielder, but he probably won’t be a star.

Josh Bell: Entering the 2009 season, the Baltimore Orioles organization had a problem. Incumbent third baseman Melvin Mora was getting older and his numbers were beginning to slip. As the season now nears its end, nothing has changed in that regard. However, the club now has a replacement, something that was sorely lacking at the beginning of the season. Bell, 22, has responded to the trade by hitting .364/.442/.682 in 44 double-A at-bats with Baltimore. Overall, he’s hitting .304/.393/.519 with 15 homers and 32 doubles in 378 at-bats. Bell is also showing a solid approach at the plate with respectable strikeout and walk rates.

Michael Taylor: The Philadelphia organization is probably pretty happy with the way the trade deadline turned out. The club received veteran Cliff Lee in a trade and he’s been lights-out in the National League. The club also managed to hang on to most – if not all – its top prospects. One of those prospects – Taylor – has shown the potential to be an impact player at the MLB level once a spot opens up for him in the outfield. After hitting .333/.408/.569 in 318 double-A at-bats, Taylor moved up to triple-A where he is hitting .282/.359/.491 in 110 at-bats. Overall, he has 20 homers and 21 steals, as well as a strikeout rate below 20 K%, which is excellent for a hitter with 20-25 home run potential.

Lucas May: With some questions surrounding Russell Martin (especially concerning his lack of power), the incumbent No. 1 catcher in Los Angeles, the Dodgers organization may need to look for a replacement sooner rather than later. Having basically given catching prospect Carlos Santana away to the Indians (a terrible decision, even at the time), the club must hope that May can continue to build off of his 2009 season – a year in which the 24-year-old catcher repeated double-A with respectable results. The right-handed hitter is currently batting .281/.374/.427 with six homers in 199 at-bats. May was converted to catcher in 2007 and he’s still a little rough around the edges defensively, but he’s the best in-house option that the club has at double-A or triple-A.

Danny Dorn: Cincinnati outfield prospects like Todd Frazier and Chris Heisey get a lot of ink, but Dorn has quietly put together a respectable pro career. A former 32nd-round pick out of Cal State Fullerton in 2006 as a senior, the left-handed hitter slugged 20 or more home runs in both 2007 and 2008. His power numbers have been muted a bit in triple-A Louisville this season (His ISO is still .184), but Dorn still has the potential to provide some pop off of a big-league bench. A poor defensive player, Dorn could also be a valuable platoon player in the American League as a designated hitter. He has hit just .197/.239/.394 against southpaws in his career, but he has a line of .293/.358/.475 against right-handers.

Neil Walker: It’s hard to believe that Walker was once the pride of Pittsburgh. A native of Pennsylvania, the former catcher was drafted with the club’s first-round pick in 2004 out of an area high school. Things really began to go downhill for Walker when he was unable to stick at catcher and moved to third base, where he provides below-average offense for the position. He’s been unable to maintain a respectable average or show the patience at the plate necessary to succeed in triple-A, let alone the Majors. Currently, he’s hitting .256/.306/.472 with 12 homers in 309 at-bats. Still only 23, a change of scenery may be the best thing for this former top prospect.

Jose Vallejo: Rumored to be headed to Houston as part of the loot in the Pudge Rodriguez trade, this Rangers second base prospect is having an off season. After hitting .292 with 11 homers and 42 steals in 2008, Vallejo has slumped to .245/.290/.316 with just two homers and 10 stolen bases in 392 at-bats split between double-A and triple-A. Fortunately, he’s still just 22 years old and is a solid buy-low risk, especially for an organization that is attempting to rebuild its farm system from virtually nothing.