Two months in, and you’ve got a millstone, the high draft pick that’s too good to drop, probably, and too bad to shop. Nobody wants them, and they’re starting to look bad in comparison to the options on the wire.

So let’s look at a trio of outfielders first — with their preseasons projections next to their projected end of season line — and then a couple of waiver options that might be better. We’ll see if there is actually a reason to cut bait on a guy we all thought would be studs going into the season.

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Last week I wrote about eight players who are under performing their xOBA, so it seems only natural to talk about a few over performers today. There are a bunch of great cases to draw from, including Odubel Herrera and Xander Bogaerts, and below you will find a table that the players with the 15 largest differences between their wOBA and xOBA. Whereas many of the under performers last week were generally slow runners, many of the over performers are fleet of foot.  I have tried to single out the guys who are closer to average runners to talk about today.

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Previous rankings:
March/April (Preseason)
May

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The more I do this, the harder it gets. Each month I struggle with shedding my preconceived notions of a player’s value and coming to grips with the performance we have actually observed. And then there’s the additional element of teasing out what’s real and what’s not. Occasionally, there’s no change. That makes it easy. But for the guys who have made strides or taken big steps back — that makes it a bit harder. And then there’s accounting for over- and under-performance. Trying to anticipate when regression will occur, if at all, makes my head hur.

Also, there are just so many outfielders. And so many of them seem to be performing at a high level this season. It can be excruciatingly difficult to tease them apart. At a certain point, we’re splitting the microscopic hairs that grows on regular hairs. Full tiers become indecipherable blobs.

You know the rules, but if you don’t: hitters are pretty fluid within tiers. It’s not feasible to talk about every single guy, so feel free to ask questions (or leave criticisms) in the comments. (I know I left off a lot of hitters who make up the shallow side of a platoon or ride the pine. ) If I omitted a legitimate someone, let me know; unless it’s a part-time guy or a prospect, I probably just forgot. It happens from time to time.

I love Bob’s Burgers, so I’m going to name the tiers by my favorite episodes of all time. Because I can! This is off the top of my head, though, so I’ll probably screw up my own list. Oh well. Fight me!

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Hyun-Soo Kim (3% Yahoo, 2.4% ESPN, 8% CBS): Kim’s comic book plate discipline numbers in Korea made him a favorite of mine entering the season. I wrote about him here during the pre-season and in following my own advice, drafted him in multiple leagues. Even when writing about Joey Rickard’s hot start, I couldn’t help but lament that it came at the expense of Kim’s ABs and that my endorsement of Rickard was contingent upon his benching. Well, there’s a lesson to be learned here: just hit .400 long enough and you’ll get your shot.

Kim has now started six straight for the Orioles, batting 2^nd in each of the last 4. His walk rate on the year is a shiny 12% and his strikeout rate just marginally higher at 14%. Kim has certainly benefitted from his share of good fortune over the 58 plate appearances he’s amassed so far but that’s hardly the point here. Aside from the sample size, most of those 58 plate appearances came in piecemeal playing time so it’s quite difficult to take anything away from his stat line, especially batted balls.

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I had no idea how I was going to follow up my extremely well-received article from last week, but then I realized it is the last Wednesday of the month which means it is time for my AL Outfield Tiers! Hooray! As always, these are my rest of the season ranks for the position and you can check out my previous versions below as well as Alex Chamberlain’s NL versions. Read the rest of this entry »

So, Jackie Bradley Jr. hit another home run last night. It’s his seventh of the season and his sixth since May 5. That’s six home runs in 13 games to go with a .404/.474/.762 line. All the while, he extended his hitting streak to 24 games. It’s pretty crazy. He’s on a tear, for sure.

But I’ve seen some overenthusiastic Tweets about his breakout being legitimate. That, I don’t fully understand. He doesn’t seem like a fundamentally different hitter than the JBJ we saw in 2013. Or 2014. Or 2015.

Obviously, the .271 ISO (isolated power) is impressive for a relatively tiny dude. It’s not far off his .249 ISO from last year, so it looks like it might be something sustainable. His strikeout rate (K%) is way down, too, which is undoubtedly a boon to his triple-slash line. But red flags abound with JBJ, all (or most) of which I will detail here.

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It was suggested that we should celebrate the day that stats stabilize. Today is Grounder Day! Eat a sloppy joe while sitting on a blanket. Drink one of these, or some of this, but I don’t know about having any of this. Grounder Day!

Well, we actually aren’t all the way there. Only about twenty players have officially reached the stabilization point for ground ball rate. But that’s fine. It actually serves as a reminder that stabilization is not something that magically happens at one point. Stabilization happens over a spectrum, and today we know a little more than we did yesterday, and tomorrow we’ll know a little more.

But! Relative to *other* stats on our leaderboards, we know a good deal about a player’s ground ball rate by now. And the beauty of that news is that just knowing a player’s change in ground ball rate can tell us a good deal about what sort of power we should expect from them going forward.

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I mean, it’s not that surprising. It’s the only outfield with a Giancarlo Stanton, which would be enough to elevate any outfield out of the cellars. It has a Christian Yelich, too, who hits the ball hard but had been somewhat of a fantasy disappointment, having failed thus far to live up to any kind of power potential he once had.

Still, the Marlins are the game’s second-best offensive outfield, per wRC+ (weighted runs created). That’s kind of surprising. I mean, we knew the Pittsburgh Pirates’ outfield, which currently ranks first, would be good. And we probably thought the Chicago Cubs’ outfield, with all its talent and depth, would generate solid offensive numbers, but they’re only 10th.

While it’s a feel-good story riding on the high of a finally-vindicated Marcell Ozuna, it doesn’t look entirely sustainable. But it doesn’t mean we can’t dream, and there are some reasons to be optimistic about the already-established Stanton and Yelich as well as the still-young Ozuna.

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In the beginning of March I wrote an article on American League outfield prospects that could make an impact on fantasy teams this season. We have already seen a surprising amount of early season call ups and with Memorial Day fast approaching, I thought it would be relevant to update the progress of these players. Read the rest of this entry »

When Dylan Higgins invited me on to the Field of Streams podcast last week, he asked me what I typically like to write about. My answer was an incoherent, stammering mess, but the gist of it was I like to write about all sorts of things. The trajectory of my writing has changed a lot over time.

I think I originally wanted to write primarily about market inefficiencies in fantasy baseball. The constant instantaneous misvaluation of players fascinates me, and effectively exploiting these inefficiencies make champions. Occasionally, I return to this topic.

That occasion is today, and today, I’m in the mood for blind résumés. I cherry-picked some stats for three players, whose names I stripped away, and I want you to decide, before reading any farther, in which order you would take these players.

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