After an incredible showing in a short stint in September, Cameron Maybin appears poised to take over center field for the Florida Marlins, perhaps as early as opening day 2009. Maybin is an excellent prospect and may be hyped amongst fantasy baseball writers, but I want to offer fair warning: for 2009, Maybin may be disappointing.

(NOTE: I think Cameron Maybin is a fantastic prospect. He’s great for keeper leagues, but for this article I will focus only on what to expect in 2009).

Maybin spent most of 2008 in double-A in 2008, hitting .277/.375/.456 with 13 homers and 21 steals in 390 at bats. However, Maybin is more known for his stint with the Marlins in September, when he hit .500/.543/.563 in 32 at bats, with 4 steals (and somehow managed to be +3 on defense according to Bill James online).

Maybin’s 32-at-bat stint in the majors should basically be ignored: he happened to hit well over a very, very small sample size. When projecting him for 2009, we should look at the larger sample of his 08 minor league numbers. And those numbers are somewhat misleading, for two reasons.

First of all, Maybin’s .277 batting average was driven by a high .380 BABIP. He hit an average number of line drives (17.6%), but a very high number of grounders, perhaps allowing him to beat out a large share of infield hits. Still, a .380 BABIP is probably unsustainable, meaning his .277 batting average was higher than it should have been.

On the flip side, Maybin’s home park depressed his overall line. While Carolina played fairly neutral in 2008, it has historically depressed homers and hits by about 10% each. And sure enough, Maybin hit .314/.401/.508 with nine homers on the road, but only .249/.356/.413 with four homers at home.

So what should we expect in 2009? First of all, Maybin is both fast and a good base stealer. The Marlins are generally an aggressive team, so expect Maybin to steal a good amount of bases. However, I wouldn’t expect much in the power department – Maybin is certainly still young enough to develop power, but he hit twice as many ground balls as fly balls in the minors this year, and is unlikely to hit many homers in 2009.

Furthermore, although Maybin walked a lot in 2008 – a good sign for his long-term development – he also struck out a lot. While this may not hold him back in the long-term – he’s young enough to be able to improve – it doesn’t bode well for his batting average in 2009. Remember, Maybin only hit .277 in double-A this year, and that was despite posting an inordinately-high BABIP. In 2009 he will be facing much more difficult pitching, and may very well have a hard time posting a batting average of even .250, despite see his speed (see Carlos Gomez in 08).

Maybin would almost certainly benefit from some experience in triple-A, given his age and his propensity to strike out and hit ground balls. His speed, defense, and willingness to take a walk should translate well into the majors, making him at least an adequate player for the Marlins in 09. However, fantasy players should expect a low batting average and minimal power, coupled with a lot of stolen bases (assuming he get on base a decent amount of time).

Maybin is an excellent long-term prospect, but may only help in the stolen base category in 2009.

While it’s unknown whether or not he can raise the dead entity that is the Washington Nationals franchise, this much is certain: outfielder Elijah Dukes is one heck of a baseball player.

A former Tampa Bay (still Devil at that time) Ray and a Tampa native, Dukes was selected by the Rays in the third round of the 2002 amateur entry draft. A breathtaking combination of size (6-1, 240) speed and power, Dukes compiled an impressive minor league resume, batting a combined .280/.369/.448. However, a number of run-ins with members of the organization and the law led the Rays to grow weary of Dukes. Tampa Bay swapped Dukes to the Nationals for minor league lefty Glenn Gibson last winter.

In his first year in D.C., Dukes showed why the Nationals were willing to give him a chance:

276 AB, .264/.386/.478, 15.3BB%, 28.6K%, .214 ISO, 13 HR

Dukes displayed the wide array of skills that made him a top prospect, showing excellent patience and power while also swiping 13 bags. His plate discipline is pretty refined for a guy who’s just 24, as he swung at just 20.34% of pitches thrown outside of the strike zone. The strikeout rate was very high and figures to remain so in the future (his contact percentage was 70.38% and his minor league K% was 24.4), but Dukes possesses the secondary skills (walks and power) to compensate for a batting average in the .250-.260 range. Great on-base skills, power and 10-20 steals to boot? That’s a pretty valuable player.

From a pure baseball standpoint, Elijah Dukes is one of the most talented young players in the major leagues. Few possess his blend of power, strike-zone judgment and athleticism. I’m not going to speak on his personal issues, other than to say that he’s had more than a few problems over the years; saying anything more would just be baseless speculation on my part. But if he remains on the field and out of trouble, Dukes has the skills to establish himself as a breakout star in 2009.

Is this the beginning of the end for Vladimir Guerrero?

In 2008, he hit a mere .303, with 27 homers and only 91 RBI. Vlad’s .303 average was the third-lowest of his career, and his lowest since 2001. His 27 homers matched last year’s total, and was also the third-lowest of his career. His 91 RBI was the lowest of his career in any season in which he had at least 400 at bats.

Guerrero is not old, but he’s no spring chicken anymore (where does that expression come from?), either, as he will be 33 years old next year. Most sluggers tend to begin their decline around ages 32 or so, and Vlad seems to be no exception. Is Vlad in decline?

Well, yes and no. He’s certainly no longer the same force that he was in his prime – particularly back in 2000-2004. However, he’s no slouch either.

Vlad’s relatively low batting average can be attributed squarely to a fall in his BABIP and a rise in his strikeout rate: Vlad’s BABIP was .314, the lowest since 2005 and the third-lowest of his career, while his strikeout rate was over 14%, after having been 12% or under in every other year with the Angels.

So is this decline, or statistical fluctuation? It seems to be a bit of both. Vlad’s power has been conspicuously down for three years now – he posted ISOs of .248 or higher every year in his career until 2006; since 2006, his ISO has been .222, .223, and .218. So while Vlad’s power is indeed down, it’s not more down than it has been over the last three years.

Vlad’s hack-tastic ways seem to have gotten more pronounced in the last two years: his O-Swing percentage is over 45% for the past two years, whereas it was 40% and 32% in 2006 and 2005, respectively. His strikeout percentage was below his career average in 2007, but above it in 2008. I don’t know if there is much to read into this, besides perhaps the idea that Guerrero getting fewer pitches to hit because of an increasingly-weak lineup around him. His contact rate is down in the last two years as well, albeit marginally (from 83% to 80-81%). His line-drive percentage was also lower in 2007 and 2008 than it was from 2003-2006, although again, the difference was only a few percent.

I don’t often like to talk about RBI, as I believe they are almost entirely out of a player’s control, and therefore can be inferred by a player’s context (how good a hitter he is + his spot in the lineup and his teammates), but I will make note of Guerrero’s RBI total. Namely, in 2008 he drove in less than 100 runs for the first time during a full season in his career. Most of this is because his teammates weren’t particularly adept at getting on base; furthermore, his batting average and slugging percentage were both down. But also, Guerrero’s 2007 RBI total was artificially inflated by an incredibly-clutch performance that year: Guerrero’s clutch rating was a ridiculously-high 2.53 – the next highest rating in 07 was 1.86, from Adrian Gonzalez. In other words, Guerrero’s 125 RBI in 2007 was an abnormally-high total, inflated by an unusually-clutch performance.

So what can you expect in 2009? Well, Guerrero is unlikely to improve, but his batting average could rise if his strikeouts come down – which is a distinct possibility, given the fluctuation of his career strikeout rate (his high total in 2008 doesn’t necessarily seem to be a sign of his decline). His power is clearly no longer at the level it was in his prime, and may indeed come down even further, especially if back issues continue to plague him as they have in the past. While “lineup protection” is a myth, Guerrero’s RBI and runs scored totals could change dramatically depending on whether or not the Angels re-sign Teixeira, who would either be on base often for Vlad to drive in, or drive Vlad in often himself.

From 2006-2008, Vlad hit .319 with one homer every 20 at bats. It seems reasonable that this is approximately what to expect from Vlad in 2009, with the caveat that his power may be down a tick. If Vlad manages to get 550 plate appearances (he’ll likely miss some games due to injury), that would lead to 27-28 homers. I’d say that a .310-25-90 line seems reasonable – with the caveat that with every passing year, Vlad is an increasing injury risk.

The days of Vlad hitting 35 homers are gone, and it’s not too likely that he’ll hit .330 anymore. But he still remains an excellent fantasy outfielder.

Counting stats can be deceiving. A guy smacks 25-30 home runs, drives in 100 runs, and all of the sudden some are ready to anoint that player as a breakout star. Case in point: Braves outfielder Jeff Francoeur. Frenchy got his career off to a blistering start in late 2005, and followed that up with a 100+ RBI season in 2006. However, Frenchy’s very liberal approach at the plate has actually made him a below-average player (in terms of WPA/LI) for the last three years running. Let’s take a closer look at Francoeur’s career to see where he stands following a putrid 2008 season.

Francoeur was called up in July of 2005, and proceeded to rake enough to land on the cover of Sports Illustrated with the caption, “The Natural”:

2005: .300/.336/.549, 4.1BB%, 22.6 K%, .249 ISO, 19.1 LD%, .341 BABIP, 0.63 WPA/LI

Francoeur did legitimately crush the ball as a 21 year-old in the majors, but “The Natural” also received help from a lofty .341 BABIP. Given his line drive rate, we would expect his BABIP to come in around .311 (LD% +.120 is the formula for expected BABIP). If we subtract those 30 points of average, Frenchy is left with a .270/.306/.519 line. Still impressive overall, but clearly pointing toward a need for much improved plate discipline.

2006 would bring with it plenty of regression to the mean, as a reversal of his luck on balls in play and continued hacking conspired to make Francoeur among the worst everyday players in the big leagues:

2006: .260/.293/.449, 3.4BB%, 20.3K%, .189 ISO, 18.3 LD%, .286 BABIP, -0.07 WPA/LI

Jeff’s low, low walk rate managed to slip anyway, and without the hefty BABIP, his production fell considerably. His power also dipped, as his Isolated Power (ISO) fell by 60 points. Further adding to his mess of a plate approach, Francoeur hit a grounder 45% of the time (39.7% in ’05) and he had a sky-high 20 infield/fly ball % (IF/FB%). In other words, he was rolling over the ball and getting jammed with alarming frequency.

Francoeur’s 2007 campaign brought some hope that he would occasionally lay off of pitches in the dirt, low-flying planes and unsuspecting birds:

2007: .293/.338/.444, 6.1BB%, 20.1K% .151 ISO, 19.4 LD%, .342 BABIP, -0.51 WPA/LI

Sure, a walk rate slightly over six is still tepid, but that’s considerable improvement for Frenchy. On the negative side, his ISO fell again from .189 to .151, and his BABIP was rather high. Given his line-drive rate, his expected BABIP was .314. If we take those 28 points off, his line adjusts down to .265/.310/.416. That’s mild, but he was still just 23 and at least gave some sign that he might improve his plate approach to an acceptable level.

Coming into the 2008 season, there were still plenty of people on the Francoeur bandwagon (myself included). As Baseball Prospectus’ Joe Sheehan wrote, “Take a player who has top-tier tools (save speed), who has lots of experience at a young age, and who has clearly improved the biggest hole in his game—that’s a player who projects for a significant leap forward.”

That great leap forward must have been into a ditch, as Francoeur’s 2008 season went down as the ugliest of his career:

2008: .239/.294/.359, 6.1BB%, 18.5K%, .120 ISO, 20.7 LD%, .277 BABIP, -2.63 WPA/LI

Francoeur went from a dark horse MVP candidate in the eyes of some to a Mississippi Brave during the course of the season, as he was demoted to the Southern League for a brief period of time. He did experience pretty awful luck on balls in play, as his expected BABIP (.327) was much higher than his actual BABIP (.277). If we adjust for that, his line improves to .289/.344/.409. Where’s the power, though?

So, Jeff Francoeur’s 2008 season wasn’t quite as gruesome as it first appears. But is he making any strides in terms of his plate discipline, or is he destined to remain an unrestrained hacker?

Frenchy has swung at fewer pitches for three years running:

Swing Percentages, 2006-2008:

2006: 61.56%
2007: 57.38%
2008: 56%

However, that’s not necessarily a good thing. Francoeur has swung at fewer pitches overall, but he’s done so by swinging at fewer offerings within the strike zone:

Z-Swing Percentages, 2006-2008:

2006: 85.83%
2007: 80.42%
2006: 76.12%

Frenchy has also made virtually no progress in terms of laying off of pitches thrown outside of the strike zone:

Outside Swing Percentages, 2006-2008:

2006: 36.67%
2007: 36.7%
2008: 36.31%

So, Francoeur is swinging at fewer strikes while still fishing outside of the zone far too regularly. If anything, it appears as though his plate discipline is actually getting worse. Coupled with a puzzling loss of power (his ISO has dropped at least 30 points each year), it becomes very difficult to recommend Frenchy as anything more than a late-round flyer. He’ll still be just 25 next season, but until he can prove that he has some semblance of pitch recognition, it’s best to let someone else become frustrated while waiting for Francoeur to break out.

As mentioned yesterday, the Cincinnati Reds outfield is something of a mess right now. However, there is one leviathan-sized exception: 21 year-old prodigy Jay Bruce. Since the Texas native was selected out of high school with the 12th overall selection in the 2005 amateur entry draft, Bruce has been “The Boss” of minor league pitchers by compiling a career .308/.366/.555 minor league line. In his first action in the big leagues, the 6-3, 205 pounder held his own (.254/.314/.453). That’s pretty darned impressive for a guy in the majors at an age where some players are college juniors. To determine what we can expect from Bruce in 2009 and beyond, let’s take a closer look at his minor league resume.

2005
GCL Reds (Rookie ball, GCL): 122 AB, .270/.331/.500, 9BB%, 25.4K%, .230 ISO
Billings (Rookie ball, Pioneer League): 70 AB, .257/.358/.457, 15.7BB%, 31.4K%, .200 ISO

Right off the bat, Bruce showed the lefty pop that led Baseball America to liken him to a young Larry Walker who possessed the “strength and skill to eventually hit 30-plus homers.” In a small sample size, he showed the ability to drive the ball, though the K rates were a bit high. BA noted that he could occasionally become “antsy” at the dish. Still, as far as debuts go, this was an extremely promising one. Prior to the 2006 season, BA ranked Bruce as the 76th-best prospect in the minors.

2006
Dayton (Low-A, Midwest League): 444 AB, .291/.355/.516, 9BB%, 23.9K%, .225 ISO

In a league that tends to suppress power, Bruce posted a .220+ ISO as a 19-year old. He popped 16 home runs while compiling 63 extra-base hits overall. Suffice it to say, those power projections looked spot-on after his full-season debut. Prior to the 2007 season, Baseball America ranked Bruce as the 14th-best prospect in the minors, again making comparisons to Walker. His walk rate was solid, if unspectacular, and the K rate was a little high, but few teenagers show as much in-game power as Bruce did at such an early stage of development. As BA noted, “he can show more plate discipline, but the Reds will happily live with some strikeouts if Bruce continues to pound the ball.”

2007
Sarasota (High-A, Florida State League): 268 AB, .325/.380/.586, 8.2BB%, 25K%, .261 ISO
Chattanooga (AA, Southern League): 66 AB, .333/.405/.652, 10.8BB%, 30.3K%, .318 ISO
Louisville (AAA, International League): 187 AB, .305/.356/.567, 7.4BB%, 25.7K%, .262 ISO

Talk about a quick rise through the minor leagues. Bruce obliterated the baseball at every stop, hitting a combined 26 homers and 80 extra-base hits (!) between his three stops. His control of the strike zone remained a bit unrefined, as the lofty strikeout rates and moderate walk rates attest, but for a 20 year-old to sprint through the minors and tear the seams off of the ball at every level is mighty impressive. Prior to the ’08 season, Baseball America ranked Bruce as the very best prospect in the game, rating his power as a 65-70 while rating all of his tools as at least a 55 on the 20-80 scouting scale (50 is considered major league average). In other words, BA ranked every aspect of Bruce’s game as above the norm.

2008
Louisville: 184 AB, .364/.403/.630, 6.1BB%, 24.5K%, .266 ISO
Cincinnati (MLB): 413 AB, .254/.314/.453, 7.4 BB% 26.6K%, .199 ISO

After aggressively punishing the International League pitching staff for a while, Bruce was called up to Cincinnati in late May and proceeded to cream everything in sight, posting an absurd 1.575 OPS in 25 PA. He cooled off over the next few months before posting solid numbers in September and early October (.924 OPS in 92 PA). The strikeout rate remains something of an issue (his contact rate with the Reds was a low 71.61%) and he was a bit liberal in terms of swinging at pitches thrown out of the strike zone (30.39 O-Swing%). However, considering Bruce’s lukewarm walk rates in the minors, a 7.4BB% is rather promising for a 21 year-old cutting his teeth in the majors, as is the near-.200 ISO.

Bruce is obviously an extremely valuable long-term property. In keeper leagues, he should be near the top of your list. However, I would caution against going too hog-wild for him in 2009. He’s a very bright young player with star-caliber talent, but he also has some rough edges to smooth out in the plate discipline department. Select Bruce knowing that he has the ability to become a star, but also knowing that he might not quite reach that level this upcoming season.

A quick look at the Cincinnati Reds’ 40-man roster reveals a land of opportunity in the outfield. Aside from mega-prospect Jay Bruce (more on him tomorrow), there’s…not much else. Utility-man Ryan Freel endured an injury-plagued season (though at least he still has Farney) and while Jerry Hairston Jr. (splitting time between center field and shortstop) turned in .326/.384/.487 line in 297 PA last year, he is also a 31 year-old with a career .700 OPS.

A lot could happen between now and opening day, be it a free agent signing or a trade. But as it stands right now, home-grown product Chris Dickerson figures to see a significant amount of playing time. A 6-3, 225 pound lefty hitter, Dickerson possesses an interesting blend of patience, speed and a little bit of power. The 26 year-old certainly made the most of his major league debut in 2008, batting .304/.413/.608 in 122 PA, popping 6 homers and drawing 17 walks. Is his Ruthian start a sign of things to come, or just insignificant small-sample mashing?

Selected out of Nevada in the 16th round of the 2003 amateur entry draft, Dickerson has shown good on-base skills in compiling a .260/.363/.415 minor league line. Since reaching AAA Louisville, he has shown a little more pop:

2007: 354 AB, .260/.355/.435
2008: 349 AB, .287/.382/.479

Dickerson could also be of some help in the steals category, as he has been a high-percentage base stealer in 2007 (23 of 28, 82.1%) and 2008 (26 of 33, 78.8%).

Of course, there’s one giant pink elephant in the room: Dickerson’s Kingman-esque strikeout rate. He whiffed a whopping 37% at Louisville in 2007, before cutting that rate to a still-whopping 29.2% in 2008. With the Reds, he K’d 34.3%. While he showed relatively solid plate discipline in Cincinnati (swinging at 24.44% of pitches thrown out of the strike zone), his contact rate was a Custian 69.53%.

Strikeouts do not necessarily keep a player from producing, provided that player has very solid secondary skills (walks and power). Dickerson has one of those, but his minor league track record suggests that his pop is only mid-range. Given his advanced age for a prospect, a high whiff rate and modest pop, Dickerson looks more like a useful fourth outfielder at the major league level than any sort of impact player. Don’t be fooled by his scalding cup of coffee last year: Dickerson can draw a walk and cause a little havoc on the basepaths, but he’s probably not starting material.

The first overall pick of the 2005 draft, out of a Virginia high school, had an up-and-down first full season in the Major Leagues. Justin Upton’s final line of .250/.353/.463 in 356 at-bats does not even begin to scratch the surface on his potential.

The infielder-turned-outfielder could very well explode in 2009 with a year of experience under his belt. He showed a willingness to take a walk (especially for a 20 year old) with a 13.2 BB%. His strikeout rate at 34 K% was high but that should improve as he gains experience facing star pitching, as he had fewer than 1,000 minor league at-bats before securing a full-time Major League job. He has a lot of room to improve upon his contract rate of 68.09%, which is below even Adam Dunn’s 71.77% and Russell Branyan’s 68.54%.

Thanks to quick bat speed, Upton generates excellent power on his 6’2”, 205 lbs frame. He slugged 15 home runs in 2008, with an ISO of .213, and should continue to build upon his power numbers as he matures. Upton also has the necessary speed to steal 20-30 bases, if he is motivated to do so.

One thing to be mindful of with Upton in 2009 is his home/road split from 2008, which included a .321/.407/.632 line at home and a .169/.291/.271 line on the road. You definitely want him in the line-up when the Diamondbacks are playing in Arizona. It’s also hard to know if Upton’s oblique strain, which kept him out of the line-up for seven weeks, was affecting him prior to his disabled list trip. It could have been a factor in his .123/.305/.215 line in June.

You certainly do not want to select Upton near the top of your fantasy draft, but he is a solid option later in the draft when you are looking for a player who should produce average numbers across the board – with the potential to absolutely explode. There is no where to go but up for this talented, young player.

When Delmon Young was selected 1st overall in the 2003 amateur entry draft, scouts drooled over his impactful bat. A 6-3, 205 pound right-handed hitter, Young elicited comparisons to a youthful Albert Belle. As a precocious prospect, Young compiled an excellent minor league resume, batting a combined .317/.363/.517 in three years while rocketing through the Tampa Bay farm system. Sure, you would like to a few more walks, but those numbers are first-rate considering that Young was several years younger than his peers. Young reached the majors late in the 2006 season as a 20 year-old, posting an aggressive-but-impressive .317/.336/.476.

Since that point, Young has experienced some growing pains. As a 21 year-old in 2007, he managed a .288/.316/.408 line, with a minuscule walk rate (3.9 BB%) and a rather tame .119 ISO. It must be mentioned that it is a rather Herculean feat for a 21 year-old to keep his head above water in the majors, as Young did. Still, Delmon’s approach was greener than grass, as he swung at a startling 41.33% of pitches thrown out of the strike zone. Among qualified batters, only Fan Graphs whipping boy Tony Pena Jr. and notorious bad-ball hitter Vladimir Guerrero had a higher O-Swing%. Also, Young hit a groundball 46.3% of the time, far more than one would expect from a corner outfielder known for possessing lightning in his bat.

Along with Jason Pridie and Brendan Harris, Young was traded to the Minnesota Twins last offseason in exchange for Matt Garza, Jason Bartlett and Eduardo Morlan. While Garza posted a solid 1.81 WPA/LI for the AL champion Rays, Young (-1.25 WPA/LI) posted another tepid line in 2008:

.290/.336/.405, 5.7 BB%, .115 ISO

Young’s execrable plate discipline improved by a very slight margin, as he swung at “only” 39.92% of pitches thrown out of the strike zone (4th-worst in the majors..hey, it’s a start). However, his power remained nonexistent, and his already-high groundball rate skyrocketed from 46.3% to 55.2%. Delmon’s groundball rate was the 6th-highest among qualified batters. A quick look at the top batters in GB% shows the likes of Ichiro Suzuki, Michael Bourn, Jacoby Ellsbury and Willy Taveras. In other words, speed players capable of beating out grounders for a base hit, guys who hit groundballs by design. As a purported power bat, Young sticks out like a sore thumb.

While it’s not at all surprising that Young’s plate discipline remains raw, it is a bit disconcerting that he was nearly outslugged by Nick Punto this past season. Whether it be a coaching issue (the Twins are viewed as a team that preaches a “contact-first” approach) or simply the normal growing pains associated with a very young player adjusting to competition at the highest level, Young remains more promise than production at this point. For a guy expected to put a charge in the ball, chopping grounders into the dirt as often as Ichiro and Ellsbury is certainly not advisable.

Not to sound like a broken record, but Young’s age must be taken into account when assessing his production. He will be only 23 years old in 2009, an age where most prospects are just seeing their first big-league action. Via Baseball-Reference, we find that Carl Yastrzemski and Roberto Clemente rank among Delmon’s most comparable players through age 22. To show just how wide of a range of outcomes are possible for his career at this point, Jose Guillen (a former top prospect who never lost his hacking style) also ranks among his 10 most comparable players.

Delmon Young has been something of a disappointment and needs to stop playing a slap-hitter’s brand of baseball, but it would be foolish to consider him a bust at this point. The truth is, there’s a wildly divergent range of scenarios for Young’s career path. It’s possible that his patience never develops and he remains a disappointment, but it’s also quite possible that he re-discovers his power stroke, fine-tunes his control of the zone and establishes himself as a valuable commodity. Given that he has several years of development time remaining, Young must be kept on the fantasy radar screen.

To be honest, I had figured that Diamondbacks centerfielder Chris B. Young would be entrenched as a star-caliber player by this point in his career. A 6-2, 200 pounder with a unique blend of patience, power and athleticism, Young was originally a 16th round steal by the Chicago White Sox in the 2001 amateur entry draft. On the heels of a gargantuan season for AA Birmingham in 2005 (.277/.377/.545, 26 HR in 554 PA), Young was shipped to the D-Backs in a deal that netted Chicago the equally enigmatic Javier Vazquez. The one question that pundits had about Young was his lofty strikeout totals, but he appeared to be making some gains on that front as he climbed the minor league ladder:

2005 (AA): 12.7 BB%, 23.3 K%
2006 (AAA): 11.5 BB%, 17.7 K%

Following a .276/.359/.532 campaign at AAA Tucson that included the reduction in his whiffs, Young made a brief cameo with Arizona and looked poised to post some outstanding numbers as an everyday player in 2007.

However, Young’s transition to the majors did not go as smoothly as expected. His solid plate discipline eroded, as he managed just a 7% walk rate to go along with a lofty 24.8 K%. While he displayed a good deal of pop (.230 ISO), Young’s .237/.295/.467 showing earned him a -0.05 WPA/LI.

2008 brought him some gains in the patience department, as he upped his walk rate to 9%. However, that sinister K rate rose to 26.4% and he posted a .248/.315/.443 line, with a slightly better WPA/LI of 0.24. Young’s 77.47% contact rate placed him in the lower third tier among qualified batters, though it was actually an improvement over his 76.66% rate in 2007. Young also got jammed with alarming frequency, as his 16.8 IF/FB% was the fifth-highest mark among qualified batters. So, what gives?

If a player possesses good secondary skills (walks and power), strikeouts do not preclude success. However, a K rate in the vicinity of Young’s does put a significant cap on his batting average, putting more stress on his ability to draw free passes and pop extra base hits; if you’re only going to manage a .230 average, you better be able to draw walks by the bushel to compensate (lest you post execrable OBP’s like Young has to this point). It does appear that Young made some gains in this department, as he lowered his Outside Swing Percentage (O-Swing%) from 22.87 in 2007 to 20.43% in 2008.

The question regarding Young at this point is, will he draw enough free passes to offset the handicap of a .230-ish batting average? Given his track record, it seems reasonable that Young will draw a few more walks as he matures, but the high K rate is here to stay given his contact rate and his issues with breaking balls. Still, he has the secondary skills and speed (27 SB in ’07, 14 in ’08) to be a fantasy asset. Only 25 heading into next season, Young still possesses the skills to guide him down a Mike Cameron-type career path if he can be a little more selective at the plate.