A gifted center fielder with well-regarded hitting skills, Carlos Gonzalez has now been involved in two blockbuster trades over the past two off seasons. Originally signed by the Arizona Diamondbacks out of Venezuela in 2002, Gonzalez ranked as the top property in the D-Backs’ system before he became a prominent piece of the Dan Haren trade. After only one year with Oakland, the lefty-hitter will now pack his bags and head to the friendly environs of Coors Field, as the principal player for the Rockies in the Matt Holliday deal. Let’s take a look back at Gonzalez’s minor league career to help project what sort of player he may develop into over the next few years.

Gonzalez started his professional career in 2003, for Missoula of the Rookie-Level Pioneer League. The then-17 year old held his own, batting .258/.308/.404 in 275 AB. In a sign of things to come, Gonzalez displayed pretty good pop for his age (.146 ISO), but also rather raw control of the strike zone (5.8 BB%, 22.2K%)

In 2004, the 6-1,180 pounder would spend the majority of his season with Yakima of the Low-A Northwest League. In 300 AB for the club, he posted a .273/.327/.427 line, with 9 HR. Gonzalez drew a few more walks (7.3BB%), while swinging and missing a slightly higher percentage of the time (23.3K%). In a late-season promotion to South Bend of the Low-A Midwest League, Gonzalez hacked his way to a .275/.288/.412 line, drawing only one walk in 51 AB.

Gonzalez would return to the Midwest League in 2005, spending the entire campaign at South Bend. As a 19 year-old, Gonzalez broke out, batting an impressive .307/.371/.489 and popping 18 home runs in 515 AB. His walk rate climbed to a decent 9.3% and he cut his K rate to 16.7%. Also, his ISO climbed from the .150-ish range in ’03 and ’04 to .182. Following this stellar season, Baseball America ranked Gonzalez as the 32nd-best prospect in the game.

In 2006, Gonzalez would be promoted to the hitter-happy environment of the High-A California League, spending the majority of the season at Lancaster (home of 40 MPH jet streams). To say that Lancaster increases offensive production is sort of like saying the United States has some slight debt issues at the moment. Per Baseball Prospectus 2008, Clear Channel Stadium boosted batting levels about 11% between 2005-2007. For the aptly-named Jet Hawks, Gonzalez compiled a .300/.349/.563 line, belting 21 long balls in 403 AB. While that comes out to a .263 ISO, one has to keep in mind his home ballpark. Gonzalez’s control of the strike zone actually seemed to take a step back, as he walked 6.9% and whiffed 25.8%. Late in the season, Gonzalez would be promoted to AA Tennessee of the Southern League, where he batted .213/.294/.410 in 61 AB.

2007 would see Gonzalez return to AA, this time with new D-Backs affiliate Mobile. In 458 AB, the 21 year-old hit .286/.333/.476. In a more neutral hitting environment, Gonzalez posted a solid .190 ISO, though he continued to employ an aggressive approach that saw him draw a free pass just 6.5% of the time. His K rate declined slightly, to 22.5%. In 42 late-season AB with AAA Tucson, he hit .310/.396/.500. After his solid AA campaign, BA would rank bump Gonzalez up to the 22nd-ranked prospect in the minors.

Following the ’07 season, Gonzalez was shipped to Oakland along with a cadre of other prospects (Dana Eveland, Greg Smith, Aaron Cunningham, Brett Anderson and Chris Carter) in exchange for Haren and Connor Robertson. Gonzalez would open the season with AAA Sacramento of the Pacific Coast League, hitting a mild .283/.344/.416 in 173 AB. Called up to Oakland in late May, Gonzalez had a rough go of it in his first taste of the majors. As a player with unrefined control of the strike zone, the Venezuelan unsurprisingly struggled. Gonzalez posted a .242/.273/.361 line in 302 AB, with an ugly 4.1BB% and a lofty strikeout rate (26.8%). He didn’t show a whole lot of restraint, swinging at 32.5% of pitches thrown outside of the strike zone, and his contact rate was rather low at 74.11%.

Gonzalez is headed to the best offensive environment in baseball, but it would be best to take a wait-and-see approach with the 23 year-old. While he has shown a solid amount of power in the minors, he has also posted low walk rates and relatively high strikeout totals. Gonzalez is essentially a lottery ticket for the Rockies and for fantasy owners: if his plate discipline improves to an acceptable level, he could be a star-caliber performer. If not, he might just be a Juan Encarnacion-type with more defensive value.

Daniel Murphy entered the 2008 season not even among the Mets’ top 10 prospects according to Baseball America. Prospect maven John Sickels gave him a “C” grade but called him a sleeper. Yet Murphy surprised the experts, as he rocketed to the majors where he posted a .313/.397/.473 slash line in 131 at-bats. In 2009, Murphy is viewed as a player to supplement the team’s core of Carlos Beltran, Jose Reyes and David Wright. The only question is where he will play.

A natural third baseman, Murphy saw the bulk of his playing time in left field for the Mets last season. This year he’s playing second base in the Arizona Fall League and is slated to play left field later in the year when he plays Winter Ball in Puerto Rico.

An .870 OPS bat will play anywhere in the field. But Murphy did post a .386 BABIP last year. He also struck out in 21.4 percent of his at-bats. Sickels praised Murphy for his line drive swing and he lived up to that reputation, with a LD% of 33.3, which was greater than his FB% of 25.5 for the Mets.

Murphy’s value goes through the roof if he is the team’s starter at second base on Opening Day. However, that seems unlikely at this point. Still, he will be a nice end-game acquisition on Draft Day. Yes, the BABIP was high in the majors, but so was the strikeout rate. At Double-A he fanned just 46 times in 357 at-bats. If his strikeout rate drops closer to his career minor league rate of 12.1 percent, a .300 average is not out of the question. Murphy has double-digit HR potential and his R/RBIs should be above-average in the team’s strong lineup.

The best-case scenario is Murphy claims the team’s starting second base job and bats second in the lineup. He could post a .300-12-70 line with 95 runs scored batting behind Reyes and in front of Wright and Beltran. In the more likely outfield batting seventh scenario, Murphy’s runs would take a big hit but he would compensate with a few more RBIs.

While the paperwork is not yet finalized and physicals still need to be taken, all indications are that slugging left fielder Matt Holliday is headed to Oakland for outfielder Carlos Gonzalez, left-handed starter Greg Smith and reliever Huston Street.

With a couple of outstanding young starting prospects on the way in Trevor Cahill and Brett Anderson, as well as several other well-regarded arms (Gio Gonzalez, James Simmons and Vince Mazzaro) close to contributing, the Athletics are seemingly gearing up for a run at contention in the AL West. While that might seem overly optimistic at first glance, it is important to keep in mind that the Angels significantly outperformed their Pythagorean Record in 2008: according to the club’s runs scored and runs allowed, the Angels “should” have finished 88-74, as opposed to 100-62. Adding Holliday’s bat to an oft-anemic offense, coupled with likely improvement from Daric Barton, the return to health of Travis Buck and perhaps something of a bounceback from Mark Ellis could be enough to push the Angels, especially if we’re talking about a post-Teixeira squad.

What exactly does Holliday’s move to the A’s mean for fantasy owners? The first, instantaneous reaction most will have is that Holliday’s numbers will plummet without a cozy, Coors-aided home ballpark. Holliday has hit a Herculean .357/.423/.645 at home, as opposed to a more tame .280/.348/.455 on the road, but I think we need to discuss the predictive value of home/road splits for a moment.

While there’s no denying that Coors Field is a significantly better hitting environment than Oakland’s McAfee Coliseum, throwing out Holliday’s home stats (i.e. half of his data sample) simply because of this is akin to throwing out the baby with the bath water. As Dave Cameron has pointed out, Holliday has been one of the better hitters in the game, even adjusting for the context of his home ballpark. From 2006-2008, Holliday has ranked 18th, 5th, and 10th, respectively, among all major league hitters in terms of WPA/LI. In terms of Equivalent Average (a Baseball Prospectus stat that also adjusts for home ballpark as well as base running prowess), Holliday has ranked 11th, 12th, and 11th, respectively, from 2006-2008. In other words, the 29 year-old is a top-15 hitter, regardless of where he plays his home games.

In addition to his patience and pop, Holliday has also shown wheels that belie his 6-4, 235 pound frame. The A’s are generally a conservative lot on the base paths (not a bad idea, considering the “break even” rate for SB’s is about 75%), but Holliday’s high-percentage thievery (28 for 30 in 2008, or 93.3%) should give him more autonomy than most.

Over the next few months, you’ll likely hear a lot about how Holliday’s numbers will fall precipitously now that he no longer has the thin Rocky Mountain air at his disposal. While his numbers may take somewhat of a downturn, do not mistake Holliday for a Coors Field creation: he’ll likely continue to rake and be a valuable commodity, both to fantasy owners and to the A’s.

Usually when a player adds 50 points of OPS to his ledger he sees an increase in his fantasy value. But Nick Markakis saw his OPS go from .847 to .897 and lost nearly $4.00 in production in 2008 according to the RotoTimes Player Rater. Markakis saw the reduction due to a 25-point drop in RBIs and a net loss of eight steals. Still, his 136 OPS+ ranks 19th among all players in their age-24 season since 1990 and marks a player that still has room for growth.

Most of Markakis’ OPS jump came thanks to an increase of 38 walks. His BB% surged to 14.3 percent, the 13th-best mark in the majors. None of his other peripherals changed a significant amount, although his FB% dropped from 37.4 percent to 32.9 percent.

Given his track record over his first three seasons in the majors, Markakis is a decent bet to post a .300 average with 100 runs and RBIs. The question is what he can give owners in HRs and SBs. His 18 stolen bases in 2007 was a professional best for Markakis and since he was successful on just 10 of 17 attempts last year it is unlikely he will be a threat to steal 20 bags in 2009.

His age-based comps at baseball-reference.com show a mixed bag, with four of the 10 players eventually having at least one 30-homer season in their career. But it’s a depressing list for a player with broad-based skills like Markakis, with early flameouts like Ben Grieve, Ellis Valentine and Steve Kemp on the list.

In 2008, 28 players hit 30 or more home runs and only two had a FB% like Markakis of less than 35 percent – Josh Hamilton and Carlos Delgado. Hamilton had a HR/FB rate of 19.2 percent while Delgado had a 23.3 percent mark in the category. Markakis had a 12.6 percent rate. If he is going to take the next step and become a 30-homer guy, Markakis will have to hit more flyballs and/or hit a greater percentage out of the park. It seems a tall order given his track record in those categories.

Everyone is convinced that Alex Rios is an impact fantasy player. The only question is why. In 2007, Rios scored 114 runs and hit 24 homers. Last year, much of his value came because he swiped a career-high 32 bases, or as many bags as he stole in 2006 and 2007 combined. Can Rios combine his home run output of 2007 and his stolen base totals of 2008 to be a top-10 fantasy guy?

In the first half of last season, Rios completely lost his power stroke. He hit just four home runs in 362 at-bats. But he compensated by swiping 23 bases. In the second half Rios’ power came back. He hit 11 home runs in 292 at-bats although he stole just nine bags after the break.

Rios hit more groundballs than flyballs last year. Also, his HR/FB rate fell to 7.4 percent. But as you can see by the GB/FB/LD chart, Rios hit many more fly balls (the blue line in the chart) in the second half, after his FB% fell beneath his LD% midway through the season.

What does it mean for 2009? Well, it is likely that his poor home run output in the first half was a random fluke. But we could easily conclude the same thing about his stolen base numbers, too. Expect more home runs than the 15 he hit in 2008. But do not expect a repeat of his stolen base numbers. Rios never stole 30 or more bases anywhere in his professional career in this country. A 20-20 season is reasonable. A 30-30 campaign is not.

Coming up through the minor league farm system, Pirates outfielder Nate McLouth seemed to fit the dreaded “fourth outfielder” archetype very well. A 25th-round selection in the 2000 amateur entry draft whom the Bucs managed to pry away from a Michigan scholarship, McLouth was viewed as possessing a good (but not great) bat and solid (but not center-field worthy) range. The main complaint about Nate was his power. (Generously) Listed at 5-11, 180 pounds, McLouth did not figure to have the pop to support his playing every day in a corner outfield spot.

Upon reaching AAA Indianapolis in 2005, McLouth appeared to affirm those extra outfielder predictions by batting .297/.364/.401. Nate showed a line-drive bat and excellent base running skills (34 SB, 8 CS) that figured to make him a well-rounded bench player, but the power was lacking (.104 ISO). McLouth got the call up to Pittsburgh late in the 2005 season and actually matched his AAA home run total (5) in just 120 PA with the Pirates, batting .257/.305/.450.

In 2006, Nate essentially filled that fourth outfielder role and had a difficult season, posting a .233/.293/.385 line in 297 PA. His walk rate dipped to 6.3% and his strikeout rate was rather high (21.9%), a surprising development for a guy who whiffed less than 14% of the time at the minor league level. Perhaps he was trying too hard to play the power-hitter’s game: he posted a decent .152 ISO, but it may have come at the expense of some hard swings and misses.

A funny thing happened in 2007. After once again filling the fourth outfielder role earlier in the season, McLouth was given a chance to play on a regular basis in August and September, and he exceeded most anyone’s expectations:

2007: 382 PA, .258/.351/.459, 10.6BB%, 23.4K%, .201 ISO, 16.4 LD%, .301 BABIP

A guy who barely managed a .100 ISO in the International League, McLouth posted an ISO exceeding .200 in ’07. His walk rate also improved, though his K rate crept a little bit higher. He was slightly lucky on balls put in play (his BABIP should have been about .284), but that’s not a huge difference. McLouth’s secondary skills were developing more than anyone had imagined, and he was just about the best base stealer in the game to boot (22 SB, 1 CS).

In spring training 2008, McLouth beat out Nyjer Morgan for the starting job in center field. Nate was a full-time player for the first time in his career, and he made the most of the opportunity:

2008: 685 PA, .276/.356/.497, 9.8BB%, 15.6K%, .221 ISO, 18.5 LD%, .291 BABIP

Nate’s 2.30 WPA/LI ranked 4th among center fielders and 17th among all outfielders, ahead of names such as Curtis Granderson and Vladimir Guerrero. His walk rate remained steady, and he significantly reduced his strikeout rate as well. McLouth’s contact percentages were 85.21% and 83.82% in 2006 and 2007, respectively, but he upped that number to 88.36% this past year. His ISO climbed to .221, which also ranked him ahead of Vlad and Granderson as well as Matt Holliday. Continuing his trend of stellar base running, Nate swiped 23 bases in 26 attempts. With 26 bombs and 23 steals, McLouth turned in a 20/20 season.

Given the opportunity to play on a regular basis and disprove his fourth outfielder status by new Pirates management, Nate McLouth turned in one of the better campaigns among all outfielders in 2008. While his Gold Glove Award was pretty dubious (John Dewan’s Plus/Minus system had him at -40 plays, 35th among CF’s) and he should likely defer center field to rangy prospect Andrew McCutchen, Nate has developed better power than anyone could have anticipated, given his minor league track record.

With two straight years of .200+ ISO’s, a solid walk rate, a reduced K rate and no fluky BABIP, it seems reasonable to think that he can retain this level of offensive performance going forward. Add in his nifty, high-percentage base stealing (he’s now 57 for 62 in the majors, or 91.9%) and you’re looking at a fantasy asset. Heading into his peak years (he just turned 27), McLouth has developed enough offensive ability that he could still be valuable as an everyday player in a corner outfield spot. Who would have thought that when he was slugging .401 in AAA?

After an incredible showing in a short stint in September, Cameron Maybin appears poised to take over center field for the Florida Marlins, perhaps as early as opening day 2009. Maybin is an excellent prospect and may be hyped amongst fantasy baseball writers, but I want to offer fair warning: for 2009, Maybin may be disappointing.

(NOTE: I think Cameron Maybin is a fantastic prospect. He’s great for keeper leagues, but for this article I will focus only on what to expect in 2009).

Maybin spent most of 2008 in double-A in 2008, hitting .277/.375/.456 with 13 homers and 21 steals in 390 at bats. However, Maybin is more known for his stint with the Marlins in September, when he hit .500/.543/.563 in 32 at bats, with 4 steals (and somehow managed to be +3 on defense according to Bill James online).

Maybin’s 32-at-bat stint in the majors should basically be ignored: he happened to hit well over a very, very small sample size. When projecting him for 2009, we should look at the larger sample of his 08 minor league numbers. And those numbers are somewhat misleading, for two reasons.

First of all, Maybin’s .277 batting average was driven by a high .380 BABIP. He hit an average number of line drives (17.6%), but a very high number of grounders, perhaps allowing him to beat out a large share of infield hits. Still, a .380 BABIP is probably unsustainable, meaning his .277 batting average was higher than it should have been.

On the flip side, Maybin’s home park depressed his overall line. While Carolina played fairly neutral in 2008, it has historically depressed homers and hits by about 10% each. And sure enough, Maybin hit .314/.401/.508 with nine homers on the road, but only .249/.356/.413 with four homers at home.

So what should we expect in 2009? First of all, Maybin is both fast and a good base stealer. The Marlins are generally an aggressive team, so expect Maybin to steal a good amount of bases. However, I wouldn’t expect much in the power department – Maybin is certainly still young enough to develop power, but he hit twice as many ground balls as fly balls in the minors this year, and is unlikely to hit many homers in 2009.

Furthermore, although Maybin walked a lot in 2008 – a good sign for his long-term development – he also struck out a lot. While this may not hold him back in the long-term – he’s young enough to be able to improve – it doesn’t bode well for his batting average in 2009. Remember, Maybin only hit .277 in double-A this year, and that was despite posting an inordinately-high BABIP. In 2009 he will be facing much more difficult pitching, and may very well have a hard time posting a batting average of even .250, despite see his speed (see Carlos Gomez in 08).

Maybin would almost certainly benefit from some experience in triple-A, given his age and his propensity to strike out and hit ground balls. His speed, defense, and willingness to take a walk should translate well into the majors, making him at least an adequate player for the Marlins in 09. However, fantasy players should expect a low batting average and minimal power, coupled with a lot of stolen bases (assuming he get on base a decent amount of time).

Maybin is an excellent long-term prospect, but may only help in the stolen base category in 2009.

While it’s unknown whether or not he can raise the dead entity that is the Washington Nationals franchise, this much is certain: outfielder Elijah Dukes is one heck of a baseball player.

A former Tampa Bay (still Devil at that time) Ray and a Tampa native, Dukes was selected by the Rays in the third round of the 2002 amateur entry draft. A breathtaking combination of size (6-1, 240) speed and power, Dukes compiled an impressive minor league resume, batting a combined .280/.369/.448. However, a number of run-ins with members of the organization and the law led the Rays to grow weary of Dukes. Tampa Bay swapped Dukes to the Nationals for minor league lefty Glenn Gibson last winter.

In his first year in D.C., Dukes showed why the Nationals were willing to give him a chance:

276 AB, .264/.386/.478, 15.3BB%, 28.6K%, .214 ISO, 13 HR

Dukes displayed the wide array of skills that made him a top prospect, showing excellent patience and power while also swiping 13 bags. His plate discipline is pretty refined for a guy who’s just 24, as he swung at just 20.34% of pitches thrown outside of the strike zone. The strikeout rate was very high and figures to remain so in the future (his contact percentage was 70.38% and his minor league K% was 24.4), but Dukes possesses the secondary skills (walks and power) to compensate for a batting average in the .250-.260 range. Great on-base skills, power and 10-20 steals to boot? That’s a pretty valuable player.

From a pure baseball standpoint, Elijah Dukes is one of the most talented young players in the major leagues. Few possess his blend of power, strike-zone judgment and athleticism. I’m not going to speak on his personal issues, other than to say that he’s had more than a few problems over the years; saying anything more would just be baseless speculation on my part. But if he remains on the field and out of trouble, Dukes has the skills to establish himself as a breakout star in 2009.

Is this the beginning of the end for Vladimir Guerrero?

In 2008, he hit a mere .303, with 27 homers and only 91 RBI. Vlad’s .303 average was the third-lowest of his career, and his lowest since 2001. His 27 homers matched last year’s total, and was also the third-lowest of his career. His 91 RBI was the lowest of his career in any season in which he had at least 400 at bats.

Guerrero is not old, but he’s no spring chicken anymore (where does that expression come from?), either, as he will be 33 years old next year. Most sluggers tend to begin their decline around ages 32 or so, and Vlad seems to be no exception. Is Vlad in decline?

Well, yes and no. He’s certainly no longer the same force that he was in his prime – particularly back in 2000-2004. However, he’s no slouch either.

Vlad’s relatively low batting average can be attributed squarely to a fall in his BABIP and a rise in his strikeout rate: Vlad’s BABIP was .314, the lowest since 2005 and the third-lowest of his career, while his strikeout rate was over 14%, after having been 12% or under in every other year with the Angels.

So is this decline, or statistical fluctuation? It seems to be a bit of both. Vlad’s power has been conspicuously down for three years now – he posted ISOs of .248 or higher every year in his career until 2006; since 2006, his ISO has been .222, .223, and .218. So while Vlad’s power is indeed down, it’s not more down than it has been over the last three years.

Vlad’s hack-tastic ways seem to have gotten more pronounced in the last two years: his O-Swing percentage is over 45% for the past two years, whereas it was 40% and 32% in 2006 and 2005, respectively. His strikeout percentage was below his career average in 2007, but above it in 2008. I don’t know if there is much to read into this, besides perhaps the idea that Guerrero getting fewer pitches to hit because of an increasingly-weak lineup around him. His contact rate is down in the last two years as well, albeit marginally (from 83% to 80-81%). His line-drive percentage was also lower in 2007 and 2008 than it was from 2003-2006, although again, the difference was only a few percent.

I don’t often like to talk about RBI, as I believe they are almost entirely out of a player’s control, and therefore can be inferred by a player’s context (how good a hitter he is + his spot in the lineup and his teammates), but I will make note of Guerrero’s RBI total. Namely, in 2008 he drove in less than 100 runs for the first time during a full season in his career. Most of this is because his teammates weren’t particularly adept at getting on base; furthermore, his batting average and slugging percentage were both down. But also, Guerrero’s 2007 RBI total was artificially inflated by an incredibly-clutch performance that year: Guerrero’s clutch rating was a ridiculously-high 2.53 – the next highest rating in 07 was 1.86, from Adrian Gonzalez. In other words, Guerrero’s 125 RBI in 2007 was an abnormally-high total, inflated by an unusually-clutch performance.

So what can you expect in 2009? Well, Guerrero is unlikely to improve, but his batting average could rise if his strikeouts come down – which is a distinct possibility, given the fluctuation of his career strikeout rate (his high total in 2008 doesn’t necessarily seem to be a sign of his decline). His power is clearly no longer at the level it was in his prime, and may indeed come down even further, especially if back issues continue to plague him as they have in the past. While “lineup protection” is a myth, Guerrero’s RBI and runs scored totals could change dramatically depending on whether or not the Angels re-sign Teixeira, who would either be on base often for Vlad to drive in, or drive Vlad in often himself.

From 2006-2008, Vlad hit .319 with one homer every 20 at bats. It seems reasonable that this is approximately what to expect from Vlad in 2009, with the caveat that his power may be down a tick. If Vlad manages to get 550 plate appearances (he’ll likely miss some games due to injury), that would lead to 27-28 homers. I’d say that a .310-25-90 line seems reasonable – with the caveat that with every passing year, Vlad is an increasing injury risk.

The days of Vlad hitting 35 homers are gone, and it’s not too likely that he’ll hit .330 anymore. But he still remains an excellent fantasy outfielder.

Counting stats can be deceiving. A guy smacks 25-30 home runs, drives in 100 runs, and all of the sudden some are ready to anoint that player as a breakout star. Case in point: Braves outfielder Jeff Francoeur. Frenchy got his career off to a blistering start in late 2005, and followed that up with a 100+ RBI season in 2006. However, Frenchy’s very liberal approach at the plate has actually made him a below-average player (in terms of WPA/LI) for the last three years running. Let’s take a closer look at Francoeur’s career to see where he stands following a putrid 2008 season.

Francoeur was called up in July of 2005, and proceeded to rake enough to land on the cover of Sports Illustrated with the caption, “The Natural”:

2005: .300/.336/.549, 4.1BB%, 22.6 K%, .249 ISO, 19.1 LD%, .341 BABIP, 0.63 WPA/LI

Francoeur did legitimately crush the ball as a 21 year-old in the majors, but “The Natural” also received help from a lofty .341 BABIP. Given his line drive rate, we would expect his BABIP to come in around .311 (LD% +.120 is the formula for expected BABIP). If we subtract those 30 points of average, Frenchy is left with a .270/.306/.519 line. Still impressive overall, but clearly pointing toward a need for much improved plate discipline.

2006 would bring with it plenty of regression to the mean, as a reversal of his luck on balls in play and continued hacking conspired to make Francoeur among the worst everyday players in the big leagues:

2006: .260/.293/.449, 3.4BB%, 20.3K%, .189 ISO, 18.3 LD%, .286 BABIP, -0.07 WPA/LI

Jeff’s low, low walk rate managed to slip anyway, and without the hefty BABIP, his production fell considerably. His power also dipped, as his Isolated Power (ISO) fell by 60 points. Further adding to his mess of a plate approach, Francoeur hit a grounder 45% of the time (39.7% in ’05) and he had a sky-high 20 infield/fly ball % (IF/FB%). In other words, he was rolling over the ball and getting jammed with alarming frequency.

Francoeur’s 2007 campaign brought some hope that he would occasionally lay off of pitches in the dirt, low-flying planes and unsuspecting birds:

2007: .293/.338/.444, 6.1BB%, 20.1K% .151 ISO, 19.4 LD%, .342 BABIP, -0.51 WPA/LI

Sure, a walk rate slightly over six is still tepid, but that’s considerable improvement for Frenchy. On the negative side, his ISO fell again from .189 to .151, and his BABIP was rather high. Given his line-drive rate, his expected BABIP was .314. If we take those 28 points off, his line adjusts down to .265/.310/.416. That’s mild, but he was still just 23 and at least gave some sign that he might improve his plate approach to an acceptable level.

Coming into the 2008 season, there were still plenty of people on the Francoeur bandwagon (myself included). As Baseball Prospectus’ Joe Sheehan wrote, “Take a player who has top-tier tools (save speed), who has lots of experience at a young age, and who has clearly improved the biggest hole in his game—that’s a player who projects for a significant leap forward.”

That great leap forward must have been into a ditch, as Francoeur’s 2008 season went down as the ugliest of his career:

2008: .239/.294/.359, 6.1BB%, 18.5K%, .120 ISO, 20.7 LD%, .277 BABIP, -2.63 WPA/LI

Francoeur went from a dark horse MVP candidate in the eyes of some to a Mississippi Brave during the course of the season, as he was demoted to the Southern League for a brief period of time. He did experience pretty awful luck on balls in play, as his expected BABIP (.327) was much higher than his actual BABIP (.277). If we adjust for that, his line improves to .289/.344/.409. Where’s the power, though?

So, Jeff Francoeur’s 2008 season wasn’t quite as gruesome as it first appears. But is he making any strides in terms of his plate discipline, or is he destined to remain an unrestrained hacker?

Frenchy has swung at fewer pitches for three years running:

Swing Percentages, 2006-2008:

2006: 61.56%
2007: 57.38%
2008: 56%

However, that’s not necessarily a good thing. Francoeur has swung at fewer pitches overall, but he’s done so by swinging at fewer offerings within the strike zone:

Z-Swing Percentages, 2006-2008:

2006: 85.83%
2007: 80.42%
2006: 76.12%

Frenchy has also made virtually no progress in terms of laying off of pitches thrown outside of the strike zone:

Outside Swing Percentages, 2006-2008:

2006: 36.67%
2007: 36.7%
2008: 36.31%

So, Francoeur is swinging at fewer strikes while still fishing outside of the zone far too regularly. If anything, it appears as though his plate discipline is actually getting worse. Coupled with a puzzling loss of power (his ISO has dropped at least 30 points each year), it becomes very difficult to recommend Frenchy as anything more than a late-round flyer. He’ll still be just 25 next season, but until he can prove that he has some semblance of pitch recognition, it’s best to let someone else become frustrated while waiting for Francoeur to break out.