The Braves are loaded with outfield prospects. Jason Heyward is one of the best prospects in the game. Gorkys Hernandez could be an everyday center fielder. And Jordan Schafer may be a future star. Of these three, Schafer is the closest to the majors, and bears watching in fantasy leagues in 2009.

Jordan Schafer’s 2008 season didn’t exactly start well. In fact, it was put on hold after 11 at bats: Schafer was suspended for 50 games for use of HGH. Schafer returned in June and played well in June and July for the Braves’s double-A affiliate in Mississippi, but he really turned it on in August. In 100 at bats in August, Schafer hit .320/.409/.630 with 6 homers and 7 doubles. Granted, it’s a small sample size, but it also would make sense that Schafer may need a month or two to get himself back into the game, physically and mentally.

Overall, Schafer hit .269/.378/.471 with 10 homers and 12 steals, which is extremely impressive for a 21-year old in double-A. He showed solid plate discipline, striking out 88 times but walking 49. And if we look closer, we can see that Schafer’s season was even more impressive.

Mississippi is generally a pitcher’s park, and it depressed homers by 18% in 2007. Schafer’s home/road splits reflect the difficult hitting environment in Mississippi: at home, Schafer hit .239/.378/.373, but on the road he hit .293/.376/.549. Schafer also hit nine of his ten homers on the road. Therefore, it’s fair to surmise that Schafer’s numbers would have been even better if he played half of his games in a more neutral environment.

On the flip side, Schafer really struggled against left handed pitching, hitting only .196/.306/.299 against southpaws, while crushing righties to the tune of .309/.416/.565. Schafer is still quite young and has plenty of time to improve against lefties – whether he is able to improve against them could be the difference between whether he becomes an above-average player or a star.

Jordan Schafer’s career thus far looks quite similar to another center fielder: Grady Sizemore. Sizemore’s performance at double-A was eerily similar to Schafer’s (minus the suspension), as Sizemore hit .304/.373/.480 with 13 homers and 10 steals (and a 73/49 K/BB ratio) –remember, Schafer hit .269/.378/.471 with 10 homers and 12 steals (and a 88/49 K/BB ratio). Sizemore’s line was more impressive – Sizemore was only 20 at the time, while Schafer was 21, and Sizemore’s strikeout rate was much better than Schafer’s. However, Sizemore – like Schafer – struggled mightily against lefties, and Sizemore – like Schafer – had a well-rounded game and scouts could easily project power in the future.

Obviously, Jordan Schafer is unlikely to become Grady Sizemore. Sizemore developed nearly perfectly, Sizemore’s season at double-A was slightly better than Schafer’s, and Sizemore was a year younger at the time (which makes a huge difference). However, the similarities between the two are not to be taken lightly, and even if Schafer doesn’t become as good as Sizemore, Schafer can still be a star.

Atlanta has never been hesitant to promote young players to the majors, and there are no major roadblocks to prevent Schafer from ascending to the big leagues. He offers a unique blend of speed and power, and has enough plate discipline that he should be an asset even without a high batting average. Schafer’s strikeout rate wasn’t terrible, but it was high enough to suggest that he could have a rather low batting average, at least in his first year or two in the majors, but he offers enough additional skills that he could be useful to you anyway.

Schafer is still young and may struggle in his first taste of the big leagues. Don’t expect him to storm into the majors like Jay Bruce did last year. However, if Schafer gets 300 at bats, he could hit 10 homers and steal 10 bases, while scoring and driving in a fair amount of runs and hitting .250 or so. There is some value in a player like that, especially a mid-season waiver-wire pickup. Schafer’s long-term star is very, very bright, but his 2009 may be somewhat of a disappointment.

It seems like Lastings Milledge has been around forever, but in fact the Nationals outfielder is only 23 years old, and may be on the cusp of breaking out.

Milledge hit an underwhelming .268/.330/.402 in a 138 games this year, with 14 homers and 24 steals (in 33 attempts). He also struck out 18.4% of the time and walked only 6.8% of the time. However, Milledge appears to have improved during the season. On July 31, Milledge was hitting only .237/.300/.351 with 7 homers and 13 steals. However, from August 1 on, Milledge hit an impressive .318/.378/.485 with 7 homers and 11 steals in only 52 games.

Of course, it is certainly possible that Milledge’s impressive August and September can be attributed to a small sample size fluke. But it is also possible that Milledge has begun to refine his game. Many people forget about how young Lastings is – most 23 year olds are not playing every day in the majors. Milledge’s minor league numbers suggest that he could be successful in the majors, and that he could develop power to go along with his speed.

Next season, Milledge will once again be a starting outfielder for the Nationals. It will be interesting to see if he can build on his excellent finish to the 2008 campaign, but Milledge may be a guy worth taking a risk on for your fantasy team. The upside is enormous, as Lastings has the chance to post an excellent batting average, steal somewhere around 25-35 bases, and even hit 20+ homers. There is a lot of risk involved, as Milledge stunk for the majority of the 2008 season. However, few young players have the fantasy potential of Milledge, making that risk easier to stomach.

You shouldn’t be relying on Milledge for guaranteed production, but he’d make an excellent late-round flier thanks to his large amount of upside.

The Rays cashed in some of their starting pitching depth by trading Edwin Jackson to the Tigers in exchange for Matt Joyce. What can we expect from Joyce in 2009?

It looks as if Joyce will be the primary right fielder for the Rays in 2009. And if there’s one thing that Joyce has consistently shown throughout his career, it’s that he can rake against righties.

Joyce hit .252/.339/.492 in 277 plate appearances with the Tigers this year – including a .255/.333/.509 line against righties. His splits in the minors are even more dramatic: this season Joyce hit .270/.352/.550 in triple-A, but crushed righties to the tune of .286/.366/.610. These trends are visible throughout Joyce’s minor league career, except for his stint in double-A, where he hit lefties and righties approximately equally.

Joyce has shown the propensity to strike out quite often in his career, and looks like he may be a “Three True Outcome” player – although probably not to the same extent as someone like Adam Dunn. However, it’s unlikely that Joyce will hit for a particularly high batting average, even though his BABIP in the majors (.293) was lower than his BABIP in the minors from this year (.328) or last year (.319). Marcel projects his batting average to be .266, which seems reasonable, if a touch optimistic.

Joyce’s power, however, seems to be real. He hits a lot of fly balls – 47.5% of his balls in play were fly balls this year – and appears to be strong enough to muscle a lot of them out of the park. In fact, 14.1% of Joyce’s fly balls left the park this year, and he hit 25 homers in only 442 at bats between triple-A and the majors.

The Rays are certainly aware of Joyce’s limitations against lefties, and are likely to pair him with another outfielder who can hit lefties better. Therefore, Joyce is unlikely to be an everyday player; however, that doesn’t mean he’s not valuable. This year he crushed 25 homers despite getting less than 500 at bats – there’s no reason why he can’t homer at that pace again next year. Joyce will be particularly valuable in leagues with daily updates, since you can bench him whenever the Rays face a lefty. However, Joyce will still be very valuable in weekly update leagues as well, since when he does face righties he’s likely to be very, very good.

Matt Joyce is probably not a top tier fantasy outfielder, thanks to his struggles against left handed pitching. However, there are far more righties than lefties out there for him to face, and Joyce should mash against righties, and could supply 25-30 homers even if he’s platooned, thus making him a very valuable commodity late in drafts.

As an ardent Pittsburgh Pirates fan, I have to admit that discussing B.J. Upton is something of an exercise in masochism. A wonderfully talented player, Upton nonetheless is a constant, sharp, prodding reminder of years of aimless drafting by the Bucs, motivated by frugality more than future upside. Add in the fact that Bryan Bullington (the Pirates’ ill-fated, 1st overall selection) is now in his third organization and a cornucopia of other ’02 first-rounders have borne fruit for their respective teams, and it’s enough to send this writer curling up into a ball playing Sister Sledge’s “We Are Family” until the unpleasant memories subside.

But enough of that. Today, I come to discuss Upton’s seemingly unlimited variety of skills. Expectations have certainly been high for the Norfolk, Virginia native ever since the Rays gladly snatched him up with the 2nd overall pick after the Pirates shot themselves in the foot, and Upton has more than held his own to this point. A career .277/.367/.426 hitter who made his debut in 2004, Upton is still just 24 years of age. He has displayed every tool that you could possibly desire in a major league player at some point during his time with the Rays. Let’s take a look at Upton’s multi-faceted game…

Plate Discipline: Upton has displayed an extremely selective eye for such a young player, drawing walks at a 12.4% clip during the course of his career. He posted the best walk rate of his career in 2008 (15.4%), and swung at just 15% of pitches thrown outside of the strike zone. That figure tied Cardinals third baseman Troy Glaus for the lowest mark among all qualified batters. With such a judicious approach, Upton fell behind 0-and-1 in the count or put the ball in play on the first pitch rarely, with a first-pitch strike percentage (F-Strike%) of 55.2%.

Power: Sure, Upton’s power output in ’08 was not extraordinary (.401 SLG%, .128 ISO), but the man was playing with a torn labrum in his left shoulder that sapped his pop for most of the year. Improved health during the postseason brought with it a surge in power, as Upton crushed nearly as many long balls (seven) in the playoffs as he did during the regular season (nine). B.J. slugged .508 with a .209 ISO in 2007, showing that he can hammer the ball as well as work the count.

Speed: While Upton’s shoulder precluded him from jogging around the bases with regularity, there was nothing wrong with his legs in 2008. The 6-3, 185 pounder swiped 44 bags, doubling his 2007 total. He could stand to be a little more selective (he got caught 16 times for a 73.3% success rate), but his base thievery still resulted in a positive 3.6 run contribution for the Rays (.22 for a SB, -.38 for a CS).

Contact Ability: This one is a little trickier to predict. Upton’s contact rate rose from 72.8% in 2007 to 80.5% this past season, and consequently his K rate dipped from 32.5% to 25.2%. We know that his power was down during the regular season. Did Upton, perhaps aware that he wasn’t as likely to slam a pitch over the fence, cut down on his swing in an effort to make more contact? And will those contact gains fade as he shows more extra-base pop and presumably swings for the bleachers with more frequency?

You name the skill, and Upton has shown it as some point during his big league tenure. Via Baseball-Reference, I found a very intriguing name among Upton’s most comparable players through age 23: Carlos Beltran.

Like Upton, Beltran is a center fielder who comes equipped with a tool set that would make Home Depot swoon: a very selective eye, solid power and excellent speed. It remains to be seen whether or not Upton’s raw athleticism will translate as well afield as it has for Beltran (per UZR, Upton was 4.6 runs above average in ’08), but the offensive comparison appears apt. Still a very young man and brimming with ability, Upton has future MVP written all over him.

Entering the 2008 season, Twins outfielder Denard Span was considered a mid-range prospect who never made good on his lofty draft status. The 20th overall pick on the 2002 amateur draft, Span was an all-state wide receiver as well as a baseball star in high school. In their preview of the ’02 draft, Baseball America rated Span as possessing 70 speed on the 20-to-80 scouting scale and remarked that, “it’s easy to look at him and dream of Kenny Lofton.” The 6-0, 205 pound lefty was supposed to become a sparkplug for the Twinkies, working the count and then wreaking havoc on the base paths.

However, despite all of the accolades, Span’s stats rarely matched his glowing scouting reports. Span moved rather slowly through Minnesota’s system and rarely got the ball out of the infield, barely slugging above .300 between Rookie Ball and the Low-A Midwest League between 2003 and 2004. 2005 brought with it some promise, as the Florida native hit .339/.410/.403 in the High-A Florida State League and .285/.355/.345 upon earning a promotion to the AA Eastern League, but his momentum was once again stunted upon returning to Double-A New Britain in 2006 (.285/.340/.349).

Span was bumped up to AAA Rochester in 2007, which would end up being the lowest point in his career. Span batted just .267/.323/.355, without working the count (7.6 BB%) or helping matters on the bases (64 SB% in 39 attempts). Following his lackluster campaign, both Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus soured on Span. BA rated him as just the fourth best center field prospect in the Twins’ system, while BP commented that “there is not much reason to believe he can be more than an extra outfielder.” At the time, it was hard to argue with either of those pronouncements. After all, Span was just a career .282/.349/.347 hitter, with average plate discipline and a propensity for being called out on the base paths (66.2 SB%).

Just when it seemed as though Span would be regarded as an exorbitantly-priced version of Lew Ford, he suddenly started to hit like a Lofton proxy. After a red-hot start at Rochester (14.3 BB%, .915 OPS in 156 AB), Span found himself seeing regular playing time for the Twins in the absence of Michael Cuddyer. In 411 PA, Span hit .294/.387/.432, posting a .364 wOBA and a 1.73 WPA/LI that paced all Minnesota outfielders. Though Span’s huge 25.7 line drive rate figures to fall, his .342 BABIP wasn’t excessively high.

Ordinarily, one might regard Span’s season as a blip, a flash in the pan. How often does a career disappointment suddenly start raking in the majors? However, there are some reasons to think that Span made some legitimate improvements in his game this past season. He drew walks at a 12.6% clip for the Twinkies while keeping his K rate in check (17.3%). His contact rate was a healthy 88.7%, and he almost never strayed from the strike zone, with an OSwing% of just 16.7%. That was the 10th-lowest figure among batters with at least 400 PA. Span’s stolen base prowess improved somewhat, at least to the point where he wasn’t harming his team (using the .22 run value for a SB and the -.38 value for a CS, Span’s 18/25 season came out to a net positive of 1.3 runs).

It’s not that uncommon for a player to experience a single-season hike in batting average or power, but it’s far more rare for a batter to show much-improved plate patience and then give all of those gains back the following year. Span’s increased walk rate and very low O-Swing% paint the picture of a hitter who refined his control of the strike zone and took a more mature approach with him to the batter’s box. Span might not be a star in the making, but as a high-OBP player with some speed, he could be a nice contributor to both the Twins and fantasy owners.

Can you name the last 10 opening day centerfielders for the San Diego Padres? Most likely not, so I’ll provide them in list form:

2008 – Scott Hairston
2007 – Mike Cameron
2006 – Dave Roberts
2005 – Xavier Nady
2004 – Jay Payton
2003 – Mark Kotsay
2002 – Mark Kotsay
2001 – Mike Darr
2000 – Ruben Rivera
1999 – Ruben Rivera

That’s a lot of turnover in a short period of time, which is a large part why the Padres hope William Venable will be able to lock down center for the next few seasons. As you may have heard by now, Venable is the son of William “Max” Venable, a former Giant, Expo, Red, and Angel, and the man the rebuilding Padres will turn to beginning in 2009.

Venable is a former Ivy Leaguer who also played baseball and basketball at Princeton University. Venable’s minor league stats reflect his willingness, at times, to draw walks. In 2006, Venable’s BB% was 10.4, that number dropped to 6.9 in 2007, and rose in 2008 to 9.1 in Triple-A. In a touch over 120 major league plate appearances Venable’s BB% sat at a healthy 10.6%. A bit surprisingly Venable has also shown some power potential, posting ISOs of .163, .095, .172, and .127 over his past four stops.

Despite stealing 39 bases in 2006 and 2007, Venable has stolen only eight since. Meaning is value is going to be limited to runs scored, and here’s the bad news, Venable is going to be playing in one of the worst lineups in baseball next season. He’ll earn most of his value with his leather, and unless your league somehow implements UZR, you’re unlikely to find value with Venable.

When Kosuke Fukudome came stateside last offseason, expectations were fairly high. After all, the longtime Chunichi Dragons stud compiled a .305/.397/.543 career line in Japan, winning the league’s Central League MVP as well as taking home gold in the inaugural World Baseball Classic in 2006. Intrigued by his broad base of skills, the Chicago Cubs inked Fukudome to a four-year, $48 million deal.

While Fukudome’s power numbers figured to take a hit upon transitioning to Major League Baseball, his translated numbers still figured to be pretty lofty. Baseball Prospectus 2008 called the 31 year-old “someone who can get on base at a .390 or .400 clip while contributing in all facets of the game.” PECOTA called for a .289/.401/.504 line, and Fukudome’s most comparable players were promising: J.D. Drew, Jim Edmonds and Fred Lynn ranked prominently on the list.

Fukudomania swept the Windy City last spring, as the lefty batter got off to a searing start. He batted .327/.436/.480 in March and April, drawing a Bondsian 19 walks in 117 PA. May was also productive, if less powerful, as he hit .293/.388/.404 with 16 free passes in the same number of plate appearances. As the Cubs entered summer, Fukudome continued to contribute by posting a .264/.387/.402 line in June.

It was at that point, however, that the wheels fell off. July was a tough month (.236/.306/.382), but we hadn’t seen anything yet: August brought forth a sickly .193/.293/.253 showing that would make Tony Pena Jr. blush, and Fukudome’s descent continued into September and early October (.178/.288/.289).

So, what the heck caused Fukudome to transform him from an on-base fiend to an offensive drag who ended up plastered to the Cubs bench down the stretch? To try and answer that question, I examined Fukudome’s pitch data over the course of the season. I figured that as opposing pitchers became more familiar with Fukudome, they might have discovered a weakness in his game that would present itself in an increase (or decrease) in certain pitches thrown.

As it turns out, essentially nothing changed in terms of pitch selection as the 6-0, 187 pounder shifted from Fukudomania to Fukufourthoutfielder. And as I dug deeper into his tale of two seasons, it became apparent that lady luck had an effect on the proceedings. Here’s a look at some of Fukudome’s key indicators over his red-hot start and ice-cold finish:

March through June

340 PA 15.5 BB%, 19.5 K%, 20.1 LD%, 50.9 GB%, .133 ISO, .349 BABIP

July through October

250 PA, 11.8 BB%, 22.5 K%, 17.8 LD%, 50.1 GB%, .105 ISO, .251 BABIP

Sure, there are some differences between the two stretches, but nothing that comes close to explaining the gargantuan shift in performance. Rather, it seems that Fukudome had some pretty awful luck on balls in play from July onward. With each passing month, fewer and fewer ducksnorts fell in for hits:

Fukudome’s BABIP by month:

April/March: .392
May: .325
June: .317
July: .306
August: .217
September/Oct.: .194

While Lou Pinella seemed to lose confidence in his new right fielder as the season progressed, it doesn’t appear as though Fukudome’s true talent level changed all that much. In all probability, Fukudome is neither the star of April nor the scrub of September.

On the whole, Fukudome batted .257/.359/.379 with a refined approach at the plate (13.9 BB%, 20 O-Swing%). His strikeout rate was a little high (20.8%) and his .122 ISO was very tame for a corner outfielder. Luckily for Fukudome and the Cubs, his stellar defensive work (13.4 UZR per 150 games in RF) might mean that he could shift to center, putting less of an onus on his modest pop.

Of course, that won’t change Fukudome’s value in the vast majority of leagues, but he is still someone to consider taking a flyer on. Most people will focus on his finish, where he endured a see-a-black-cat, walk-under-a-dozen-ladders unlucky BABIP stretch, but Fukudome could be a good source of OBP in the later rounds.

Giants outfielder Fred Lewis got his first chance at everyday playing time in 2008, but he traveled a long, winding road to get that shot. Originally drafted by the Montreal Expos out of Mississippi Gulf Coast Community College in 2000, Lewis opted not to sign and instead attended Southern University. The Giants came calling in 2002, popping Lewis in the second round (66th overall).

Matt Lawton’s cousin showed excellent on-base skills in the minors (career .381 OBP, 15.1 BB%). He also ranked among Baseball America’s top 10 organizational prospects from 2003-2007 in what was then a rather barren Giants farm system. Still, some felt that Lewis was more fourth outfielder than future regular. BA noted that Lewis was “still more about potential than production”, as he was prone to strikeouts and didn’t harness his raw speed on the base paths or in the outfield.

In 2007, Lewis’ official position on the Giants was “Barry Bonds‘ legs.” As a late-inning defensive replacement who snuck in the occasional at-bat, Lewis compiled a .287/.374/.408 line in 180 PA, drawing walks at a 10.8% rate and striking out 20.4% of the time. “Bonds’ Legs” also managed to become one of the more anonymous players to hit for the cycle, accomplishing the feat on May 13th at Coors Field.

Once that Bonds guy not-so-willingly retired, Lewis inherited plenty of playing time and made the most of it. A first-time regular at the age of 27, Lewis batted .282/.351/.440 in 521 PA. He continued to show a pretty sharp eye, drawing walks at a 9.8% clip while rarely straying from the strike zone. Lewis’ Outside Swing Percentage (O-Swing%) was just 18.9%, ranking as the 19th-lowest total among all qualified hitters. Lewis also swiped 21 bags and took full advantage of AT&T Park’s “Triples Alley”, collecting nine three-baggers on the season (fun fact: AT&T increased triples production by 32% between 2006-2008, per The Bill James Handbook).

The 6-2, 198 pounder batted .282 this past season, but that number seems likely to regress somewhat. Lewis often swung and missed at the minor league level (24.5 K%), and that tendency continued in 2008 (26.5 K%). His BABIP was also pretty high at .367. While that total figures to drop somewhat too, Lewis might have the sort of speedy profile to sustain a BABIP higher than what his LD% alone would indicate. In addition to the 20+ steals, Lewis was a +13 base runner overall, per Bill James’ Base Running Net Gain statistic (discussed in more detail here). Lewis likely has the wheels to make those worm killers (career 54.4 GB%) count.

It took him a while to get an opportunity, but Fred Lewis looks like a solid major league player. With a patient approach, the ability to swipe some bags and moderate pop (.158 ISO), Lewis could be an asset to both the Giants and fantasy owners over the next few seasons.

Finally given the chance to play every day in 2008, the 23-year-old Matt Kemp had quite a season: he hit .290/.340/.459 with 18 homers and 35 steals. Kemp sported a very high BABIP for the second season in a row, but all indications are that Kemp should be able to maintain this high BABIP in the future.

Kemp posted a .363 BABIP this year, thanks in large part to the fact that he hit line drives 23% of the time. In fact, Kemp has posted consistently high BABIPs throughout his career: his 2007 BABIP was an absurd .417, while his BABIP in the minors has ranged from .345 to .417. Thus, while Kemp’s BABIP is quite high, there’s no reason to think that he can’t maintain this level of BABIP going forward. Thus, while his .290 batting average may seem a bit high upon first glance at his BABIP, there’s a very good chance that it represents his true ability, rather than a fluke.

Kemp has always been young for his level throughout the minors, and indeed was only 23 last year. Any 23-year-old that can slug .459 is a heck of a player, and is likely to develop more power in the coming years. Given that Kemp is very toolsy, while 18 homers is pretty good, there’s reason to expect increased power output in the future. There’s certainly no guarantee that Kemp will hit more homers in 2009 than he did in 2008, but it’s fairly likely.

Furthermore, Kemp’s 35 stolen bases are extremely valuable for fantasy purposes. He was caught 11 times, and Joe Torre has shown a willingness to turn him loose on the basepaths that he will likely demonstrate once again in 2009. Kemp didn’t slow down in the second half of the season, and therefore it’s unlikely that he will run less in 09 than he did in 08.

Finally, it appears that Kemp has locked up a full-time position in the Dodgers outfield. Going in to 2008, there was a lot of consternation amongst folks on the internet about how the Dodgers’ outfield situation would play out. It was clear to many that Kemp should be playing every day, but some questioned whether Joe Torre would bench Kemp in favor of established veterans like Juan Pierre or Andruw Jones. That didn’t happen, and Kemp responded with an excellent season. Kemp’s production in 2008 makes it quite unlikely that Torre will bench him for an extended period of time in 2009, so Kemp’s playing time is likely secured even if he goes in to a slump.

Although I was concerned at first about his BABIP, there’s every reason to think that Kemp will be able to maintain a high BABIP in the future. If he cuts down on the strikeouts (he struck out in over 25% of his at bats in 2008), his batting average could rise even further. He’s a good bet to attempt at least 40 stolen bases, and there’s reason to believe that he could produce even more homers next year. Although the secret is out about Kemp, I believe that many people may not recognize just how good he could be, and therefore he may be undervalued on draft day.

Nick Swisher was quite a disappointment in 2008.

After being traded from Oakland to Chicago, many (including myself) predicted improvement from Swisher, thanks to his friendly offensive environment on the South Side. Instead, Swisher produced a miserable season, hitting .219/.332/.410 with 24 homers. He did benefit from playing in US Cellular Park, but that benefit was negated by a terrible performance in games on the road: Swisher hit .247/.361/.517 with 19 homers at home, but only .189/.301/.294 with five homers on the road.

Recently, the White Sox traded him to the Yankees, where he is currently slated to be their everyday first baseman. And I think the Yankees are in for a pleasant surprise, as Swisher is quite likely to rebound in 2009.

Swisher’s BABIP in 2008 was very low: .251, to be exact. In the previous three seasons, Swisher’s BABIP had been .308, .287 and .266, respectively. However, Swisher actually hit the most line drives of his career in 2008, hitting liners 20.9% of the time. While he did strike out a lot, his strikeout rate was in line with his career rate, as was his walk rate. Swisher’s skill in hitting the ball and hitting it with authority didn’t change; rather, he simply experienced a lot of bad luck.

In a study I recently co-authored, I found that Swisher was one the unluckiest players on balls in play in 2008. I found his expected BABIP to be .294, much higher than his actual BABIP. If we credit Swisher for his lost hits, his 2008 line becomes .249/.356/.447 – not much different from his career line of .244/.354/.441 (and his career line includes his miserable 2008 stats).

In other words, Swisher’s 2008 season, once adjusted for the bad luck he incurred, was exactly in line with his previous seasons. There’s no reason to think that his inherent ability to hit the ball changed much, as evidenced by his stable strikeout, walk, and line-drive rates; therefore, we have every reason to expect Swisher to improve in 2009, thanks to regression to the mean.

Swisher is never going to hit for a very high batting average, but he’s quite unlikely to hit .219 once again. Even though he is no longer playing in the friendly confines of US Cellular Field, Swisher should be good for 25-30 homers (assuming he plays every day), and should put up a decent number of RBI and runs scored, thanks to the other players in the Yankees lineup.

Swisher is not a fantasy superstar, but he’s significantly better than he showed in 2008, and is therefore very likely to be underrated. Don’t hesitate to take him late in drafts, and don’t be surprised when he produces like he did from 2005-2007.