When Kosuke Fukudome came stateside last offseason, expectations were fairly high. After all, the longtime Chunichi Dragons stud compiled a .305/.397/.543 career line in Japan, winning the league’s Central League MVP as well as taking home gold in the inaugural World Baseball Classic in 2006. Intrigued by his broad base of skills, the Chicago Cubs inked Fukudome to a four-year, $48 million deal.

While Fukudome’s power numbers figured to take a hit upon transitioning to Major League Baseball, his translated numbers still figured to be pretty lofty. Baseball Prospectus 2008 called the 31 year-old “someone who can get on base at a .390 or .400 clip while contributing in all facets of the game.” PECOTA called for a .289/.401/.504 line, and Fukudome’s most comparable players were promising: J.D. Drew, Jim Edmonds and Fred Lynn ranked prominently on the list.

Fukudomania swept the Windy City last spring, as the lefty batter got off to a searing start. He batted .327/.436/.480 in March and April, drawing a Bondsian 19 walks in 117 PA. May was also productive, if less powerful, as he hit .293/.388/.404 with 16 free passes in the same number of plate appearances. As the Cubs entered summer, Fukudome continued to contribute by posting a .264/.387/.402 line in June.

It was at that point, however, that the wheels fell off. July was a tough month (.236/.306/.382), but we hadn’t seen anything yet: August brought forth a sickly .193/.293/.253 showing that would make Tony Pena Jr. blush, and Fukudome’s descent continued into September and early October (.178/.288/.289).

So, what the heck caused Fukudome to transform him from an on-base fiend to an offensive drag who ended up plastered to the Cubs bench down the stretch? To try and answer that question, I examined Fukudome’s pitch data over the course of the season. I figured that as opposing pitchers became more familiar with Fukudome, they might have discovered a weakness in his game that would present itself in an increase (or decrease) in certain pitches thrown.

As it turns out, essentially nothing changed in terms of pitch selection as the 6-0, 187 pounder shifted from Fukudomania to Fukufourthoutfielder. And as I dug deeper into his tale of two seasons, it became apparent that lady luck had an effect on the proceedings. Here’s a look at some of Fukudome’s key indicators over his red-hot start and ice-cold finish:

March through June

340 PA 15.5 BB%, 19.5 K%, 20.1 LD%, 50.9 GB%, .133 ISO, .349 BABIP

July through October

250 PA, 11.8 BB%, 22.5 K%, 17.8 LD%, 50.1 GB%, .105 ISO, .251 BABIP

Sure, there are some differences between the two stretches, but nothing that comes close to explaining the gargantuan shift in performance. Rather, it seems that Fukudome had some pretty awful luck on balls in play from July onward. With each passing month, fewer and fewer ducksnorts fell in for hits:

Fukudome’s BABIP by month:

April/March: .392
May: .325
June: .317
July: .306
August: .217
September/Oct.: .194

While Lou Pinella seemed to lose confidence in his new right fielder as the season progressed, it doesn’t appear as though Fukudome’s true talent level changed all that much. In all probability, Fukudome is neither the star of April nor the scrub of September.

On the whole, Fukudome batted .257/.359/.379 with a refined approach at the plate (13.9 BB%, 20 O-Swing%). His strikeout rate was a little high (20.8%) and his .122 ISO was very tame for a corner outfielder. Luckily for Fukudome and the Cubs, his stellar defensive work (13.4 UZR per 150 games in RF) might mean that he could shift to center, putting less of an onus on his modest pop.

Of course, that won’t change Fukudome’s value in the vast majority of leagues, but he is still someone to consider taking a flyer on. Most people will focus on his finish, where he endured a see-a-black-cat, walk-under-a-dozen-ladders unlucky BABIP stretch, but Fukudome could be a good source of OBP in the later rounds.

Giants outfielder Fred Lewis got his first chance at everyday playing time in 2008, but he traveled a long, winding road to get that shot. Originally drafted by the Montreal Expos out of Mississippi Gulf Coast Community College in 2000, Lewis opted not to sign and instead attended Southern University. The Giants came calling in 2002, popping Lewis in the second round (66th overall).

Matt Lawton’s cousin showed excellent on-base skills in the minors (career .381 OBP, 15.1 BB%). He also ranked among Baseball America’s top 10 organizational prospects from 2003-2007 in what was then a rather barren Giants farm system. Still, some felt that Lewis was more fourth outfielder than future regular. BA noted that Lewis was “still more about potential than production”, as he was prone to strikeouts and didn’t harness his raw speed on the base paths or in the outfield.

In 2007, Lewis’ official position on the Giants was “Barry Bonds‘ legs.” As a late-inning defensive replacement who snuck in the occasional at-bat, Lewis compiled a .287/.374/.408 line in 180 PA, drawing walks at a 10.8% rate and striking out 20.4% of the time. “Bonds’ Legs” also managed to become one of the more anonymous players to hit for the cycle, accomplishing the feat on May 13th at Coors Field.

Once that Bonds guy not-so-willingly retired, Lewis inherited plenty of playing time and made the most of it. A first-time regular at the age of 27, Lewis batted .282/.351/.440 in 521 PA. He continued to show a pretty sharp eye, drawing walks at a 9.8% clip while rarely straying from the strike zone. Lewis’ Outside Swing Percentage (O-Swing%) was just 18.9%, ranking as the 19th-lowest total among all qualified hitters. Lewis also swiped 21 bags and took full advantage of AT&T Park’s “Triples Alley”, collecting nine three-baggers on the season (fun fact: AT&T increased triples production by 32% between 2006-2008, per The Bill James Handbook).

The 6-2, 198 pounder batted .282 this past season, but that number seems likely to regress somewhat. Lewis often swung and missed at the minor league level (24.5 K%), and that tendency continued in 2008 (26.5 K%). His BABIP was also pretty high at .367. While that total figures to drop somewhat too, Lewis might have the sort of speedy profile to sustain a BABIP higher than what his LD% alone would indicate. In addition to the 20+ steals, Lewis was a +13 base runner overall, per Bill James’ Base Running Net Gain statistic (discussed in more detail here). Lewis likely has the wheels to make those worm killers (career 54.4 GB%) count.

It took him a while to get an opportunity, but Fred Lewis looks like a solid major league player. With a patient approach, the ability to swipe some bags and moderate pop (.158 ISO), Lewis could be an asset to both the Giants and fantasy owners over the next few seasons.

Finally given the chance to play every day in 2008, the 23-year-old Matt Kemp had quite a season: he hit .290/.340/.459 with 18 homers and 35 steals. Kemp sported a very high BABIP for the second season in a row, but all indications are that Kemp should be able to maintain this high BABIP in the future.

Kemp posted a .363 BABIP this year, thanks in large part to the fact that he hit line drives 23% of the time. In fact, Kemp has posted consistently high BABIPs throughout his career: his 2007 BABIP was an absurd .417, while his BABIP in the minors has ranged from .345 to .417. Thus, while Kemp’s BABIP is quite high, there’s no reason to think that he can’t maintain this level of BABIP going forward. Thus, while his .290 batting average may seem a bit high upon first glance at his BABIP, there’s a very good chance that it represents his true ability, rather than a fluke.

Kemp has always been young for his level throughout the minors, and indeed was only 23 last year. Any 23-year-old that can slug .459 is a heck of a player, and is likely to develop more power in the coming years. Given that Kemp is very toolsy, while 18 homers is pretty good, there’s reason to expect increased power output in the future. There’s certainly no guarantee that Kemp will hit more homers in 2009 than he did in 2008, but it’s fairly likely.

Furthermore, Kemp’s 35 stolen bases are extremely valuable for fantasy purposes. He was caught 11 times, and Joe Torre has shown a willingness to turn him loose on the basepaths that he will likely demonstrate once again in 2009. Kemp didn’t slow down in the second half of the season, and therefore it’s unlikely that he will run less in 09 than he did in 08.

Finally, it appears that Kemp has locked up a full-time position in the Dodgers outfield. Going in to 2008, there was a lot of consternation amongst folks on the internet about how the Dodgers’ outfield situation would play out. It was clear to many that Kemp should be playing every day, but some questioned whether Joe Torre would bench Kemp in favor of established veterans like Juan Pierre or Andruw Jones. That didn’t happen, and Kemp responded with an excellent season. Kemp’s production in 2008 makes it quite unlikely that Torre will bench him for an extended period of time in 2009, so Kemp’s playing time is likely secured even if he goes in to a slump.

Although I was concerned at first about his BABIP, there’s every reason to think that Kemp will be able to maintain a high BABIP in the future. If he cuts down on the strikeouts (he struck out in over 25% of his at bats in 2008), his batting average could rise even further. He’s a good bet to attempt at least 40 stolen bases, and there’s reason to believe that he could produce even more homers next year. Although the secret is out about Kemp, I believe that many people may not recognize just how good he could be, and therefore he may be undervalued on draft day.

Nick Swisher was quite a disappointment in 2008.

After being traded from Oakland to Chicago, many (including myself) predicted improvement from Swisher, thanks to his friendly offensive environment on the South Side. Instead, Swisher produced a miserable season, hitting .219/.332/.410 with 24 homers. He did benefit from playing in US Cellular Park, but that benefit was negated by a terrible performance in games on the road: Swisher hit .247/.361/.517 with 19 homers at home, but only .189/.301/.294 with five homers on the road.

Recently, the White Sox traded him to the Yankees, where he is currently slated to be their everyday first baseman. And I think the Yankees are in for a pleasant surprise, as Swisher is quite likely to rebound in 2009.

Swisher’s BABIP in 2008 was very low: .251, to be exact. In the previous three seasons, Swisher’s BABIP had been .308, .287 and .266, respectively. However, Swisher actually hit the most line drives of his career in 2008, hitting liners 20.9% of the time. While he did strike out a lot, his strikeout rate was in line with his career rate, as was his walk rate. Swisher’s skill in hitting the ball and hitting it with authority didn’t change; rather, he simply experienced a lot of bad luck.

In a study I recently co-authored, I found that Swisher was one the unluckiest players on balls in play in 2008. I found his expected BABIP to be .294, much higher than his actual BABIP. If we credit Swisher for his lost hits, his 2008 line becomes .249/.356/.447 – not much different from his career line of .244/.354/.441 (and his career line includes his miserable 2008 stats).

In other words, Swisher’s 2008 season, once adjusted for the bad luck he incurred, was exactly in line with his previous seasons. There’s no reason to think that his inherent ability to hit the ball changed much, as evidenced by his stable strikeout, walk, and line-drive rates; therefore, we have every reason to expect Swisher to improve in 2009, thanks to regression to the mean.

Swisher is never going to hit for a very high batting average, but he’s quite unlikely to hit .219 once again. Even though he is no longer playing in the friendly confines of US Cellular Field, Swisher should be good for 25-30 homers (assuming he plays every day), and should put up a decent number of RBI and runs scored, thanks to the other players in the Yankees lineup.

Swisher is not a fantasy superstar, but he’s significantly better than he showed in 2008, and is therefore very likely to be underrated. Don’t hesitate to take him late in drafts, and don’t be surprised when he produces like he did from 2005-2007.

This Grady Sizemore kid is pretty good. And he might get even better.

Sizemore is going to be 26 years old next season – in other words, he’s just now beginning to enter his prime. That’s a scary thought for the rest of the American League, and a thought that you should keep in mind in your draft: Grady isn’t even in his prime yet.

Sizemore has managed to improve in a few aspects of his game every season he’s been in the majors. In his first full season in 2005, he had an excellent season (especially for a 22-year old!), but he hit fly balls only 31% of the time and was caught stealing 31% of the time. He also only walked in 7.5% of his plate appearances.

In 2006, Sizemore stopped getting caught stealing as often and walked 10.6% of the time. He also hit fly balls on 46.9% of his balls in play. However, he only stole 22 bases and struck out 23.4% of the time.

In 2007, Sizemore again upped his walk rate by over 3%, raising it to 13.9%. He also continued his efficient thievery on the base paths, and stole more often – he stole 33 bases in 43 attempts. He once again continued to strike out at a high rate, and he lost a few homers (he hit only 24).

In 2008, Sizemore’s skills really began to come together. Sizemore stole 38 bases while only getting caught five times. He maintained a walk rate over 13%, but reduced his strikeout rate from 24.7% to 20.5%. He also topped 30 homers for the first time in his career, smacking 33 long balls. Sizemore had always been a patient hitter, but in 2008 he swung at the lowest percentage of pitches in his career, only 41.8%. He also posted the highest contact rate of his career, all while maintaining his high walk rate and improving his power.

What does this mean for the future? Well, I’m admittedly bullish (full disclosure: I was born and raised in Cleveland and remain an Indians fan), but I think I have just cause: Grady Sizemore has been great throughout his career, he’s entering his prime, and his statistical track record suggests that he’s just now starting to put it all together.

Sizemore stole the most bases of his career last year (and was successful in 88% of his attempts) and hit the most homers of his career. He also struck out at the lowest rate of his career while maintaining a walk rate of over 13%. He continued to be selective at the plate, and made more contact when he did choose to swing. The only bad part of his 2008 campaign was his relatively low batting average – .268, to be exact. It seems counterintuitive that his BA would fall in a year in which he improved strikeout rate. Sure enough, Sizemore’s BABIP last year was a career-low .291 – this after posting BABIPs of .334, .342, and .335 over the last three years. And for those wondering, Sizemore’s 19.4% line-drive percentage was only a little lower than his career LD of 21%.

If Sizemore is able to post the same strikeout and walk rates in 2009 as he did in 2008, his batting average is likely to rise thanks to an improved BABIP. But as we know, Sizemore may not simply post the same stats again. He’s managed to improve in one or two aspects of his game virtually every season in the majors, and I’ll say it again: he’s just now entering his prime.

While it’s possible that Sizemore could experience some backslide in 2009, it’s far more likely that Sizemore will maintain the gains he’s made: namely, increased power, increased efficiency on the basepaths, and a reduced strikeout rate – and it’s certainly possible that he’ll further improve in some area as well. For example, although he has made strides in his hitting against left-handed pitching, Sizemore’s line against lefties in 2008 was a mere .224/.347/.388. If Sizemore improves his batting average and/or slugging percentage against lefties – even a little – his overall line will receive a boost.

Grady Sizemore is clearly a first round pick in most drafts. Just keep in mind: as good as he was in 2008, he has a legitimate chance to be even better in 2009.

The Houston Astros farm system has devolved into something of a wasteland in recent years. In an effort to infuse as much talent as possible into the major league roster, the Astros have been rather frugal in the amateur draft and the international player market. Surrendering first and second-round picks and then failing to sign the club’s third and fourth-rounders in 2007 certainly did not help matters, either. In selling long-term relevance for short-term mediocrity, Houston has compiled a core of thirty-something players that posted a 77-84 Pythagorean Record this past season.

One product of Houston’s barren player development outlet that figured to bear fruit was Hunter Pence. Plucked out of the University of Texas-Arlington in the 2nd round of the 2004 draft, Pence quickly established himself as Houston’s most advanced batting prospect. The gangly 6-4, 210 pounder compiled an impressive .303/.376/.554 minor league line, drawing walks at a healthy clip (11.7 BB%) while keeping his strikeouts in check (19.2 K%). Rated by Baseball America as Houston’s brightest prospect, Pence made his debut in 2007 at the age of 24.

Pence’s first taste of the big leagues looked like a smashing success, as he raked to the tune of .322/.360/.539, bopping 17 home runs and posting a .217 Isolated Power (ISO) number. His 2.16 WPA/LI ranked in the top 20 among all outfielders. There were some cracks in the armor, however, as Pence’s 5.4 BB% left something to be desired and his Batting Average on Balls in Play (BABIP) was an astronomical .378. Given his 19.4% line drive rate (LD%), his expected BABIP was much lower, at .314. Taking some of those extra duck snorts out of Pence’s line gives him a much less impressive .258/.296/.472 showing.

Perhaps we should have known that Pence would be in for a down season in 2008. After all, how many all-star star seasons start with a guy running straight through a glass door? Pence came pretty close to matching his adjusted 2007 line, batting .269/.318/.466. His walk rate improved ever so slightly (6.3 BB%) and his strikeout rate matched his 2007 mark (20.8%), but he didn’t have near the same good fortune on balls in play (.303 BABIP). And, troublingly, Pence failed to hit the ball with authority, posting a feeble 13.9 LD%. That figure ranked dead-last among all qualified batters. Pence’s WPA/LI fell over two wins, to -0.03.

Though Pence ostensibly improved his plate discipline, the underlying numbers suggest that he actually took a slight step backward. His Outside Swing Percentage (O-Swing%) climbed from 29.8% in ’07 to 31.1%, and his percentage of pitches swung at within the strike zone (Z-Swing%) fell from 75.3% to 71.5%. Swinging at more balls and taking more strikes: that’s a recipe for quick outs.

Pitchers are well aware of Pence’s proclivity to expand his strike zone. The 25 year-old saw the lowest percentage of fastballs in the majors, getting a heater just 49.8% of the time in 2008. Instead of giving him something straight, most hurlers fed Pence a steady diet of sliders, hoping to coax a misguided swing out of him. Pence got a slider 28.3% of the time in 2008, also the highest rate in the majors and nearly four percent higher than second-place Dan Uggla (24.7%). As the scouting reports began to circulate, pitchers noticed Pence’s tendency to chase the hard breaking ball and exploited it.

Pitchers have clearly found a weakness in Pence’s approach, and will continue to throw sliders aplenty until he proves that he can show restraint and avoid the temptation to go fishing outside of the strike zone. If Pence wants to improve his sliding production, he’s going to have to lay off of the slider (and avoid those tricky sliding doors, of course).

If you do a couple of things really well, people will trip all over themselves to praise you but if you do everything well and nothing spectacular, people will underrate you. Let’s take a quick look at Ryan Howard and Carlos Beltran. Howard gives you HRs and RBIs and people drool over those numbers. There have been 2009 mock drafts with Howard going in the first round despite being the 18th-best fantasy hitter in 2008.

Meanwhile, Beltran contributes in five categories but is no threat to finish in the top three in any of them. He’s a late second round pick in the same mocks, even though he was the 10th-best fantasy hitter last year, according to the RotoTimes Player Rater. And it’s easy to see why. In 2004, he nearly went 40-40, missing by two home runs. Last year Beltran went 27-25 and simply did not have the sexy numbers.

The decline in steals is not a great shock, as Beltran is in his early 30s now. But what happened to the power? How does a guy who hit 41 home runs in 2006 manage just 27 in 2008, despite nearly 100 more at-bats (606-510)? Let’s look at this graphically.

As the preceding graph shows, Beltran has undergone a steep decline in his FB% (the blue line) in the past few years. Also, his HR/FB rate has dropped noticeably, too. However, his FB% is not out of line with what he’s done previously. A 13 percent drop in two years seems extreme, but Beltran’s 2008 rate fits in perfectly with his marks from 2002 and 2003.

Beltran’s BABIP, SLG and ISO were all within just a few points of his lifetime marks in 2008. And just to reiterate a point made earlier, Beltran was the 10th-best fantasy hitter last year. It is counter-productive to obsess about his declining power when Beltran is simply one of the safest and most reliable fantasy hitters available.

In 2006, Beltran was the 13th-best fantasy hitter. Then in 2007 he ranked 18th. If you are drafting in the middle of the second round and Beltran is available, it would be a mistake to bypass him. He is very durable, his established rate of production puts him at the top of the second round and there is always the slight chance he returns to 40-homer levels and exceeds expectations.

Perhaps the most pejorative term in scouting parlance is “Quad-A.” It’s a term loosely applied to player who can dominate in the Pacific Coast League or the International League, but just doesn’t possess the skills to thrive at the highest level of competition.

Coming into the 2008 season, Rangers outfielder Nelson Cruz appeared to fit the label to a T. The 6-3, 230 pounder (who also toiled in the Mets and Athletics farm systems) was acquired along with Carlos Lee as part of a 2006 deadline deal with the Brewers that shipped Francisco Cordero, Kevin Mench, Laynce Nix and Julian Cordero to Milwaukee. Cruz creamed the ball at AAA, but he fell flat on his face in two stints with the Rangers in 2006 and 2007:

2006

AAA (Brewers): .302/.373/.528, 10.2 BB%, 27 K%, .226 ISO in 371 AB
Rangers: .223/.261/.385, 5.1 BB%, 24.6 K%, .162 ISO in 130 AB

2007

AAA (Rangers): .352/.426/.698, 11.5 BB%, 21 K%, .346 ISO in 162 AB
Rangers: .235/.287/.384, 6.4 BB%, 28.3 K%, .150 ISO in 307 AB

Cruz looked like the classic high-power, low-contact slugger that could bash in the PCL but couldn’t cut it in the majors. At 26 and with two failed opportunities to establish himself, Cruz looked destined to ride the AAA bus circuit for years to come.

In 2008, Cruz decided to turn into Oklahoma’s answer to Barry Bonds, hitting a scorching .342/.426/.695 in 383 AB at AAA, with a 12.8 BB% and a 22.7 K%. But, unlike the previous years, Cruz continued to murder the ball upon his recall to Texas. In 115 AB, he batted .330/.421/.609, belting 7 home runs. He drew walks at a healthy clip (12.9 BB%) while striking out in about one quarter of his at-bats (24.3%). So, has Cruz broken out?

No. Sure, Cruz’s AAA line was legitimately impressive, but we’re talking about a 28 year-old whose skill set remains the same as it was entering the year: impressive power, but just decent plate patience and lofty strikeout rates. His small-sample mashing might engender lofty expectations, but it’s important to keep the big picture in mind. Cruz had a .388 average on balls in play, a very high number that will regress. Also, the chances of a guy striking out so often hitting .330 are essentially zero.

In 557 career major league at-bats (roughly a year’s worth of playing time), Cruz is a .251/.312/.431 hitter, with 7.8% walk rate and a 26.4% K rate. For 2009, Marcel projects a .258/.324/.435 line. Expecting something along those lines seems reasonable. However, that’s a level of production that you probably want to shoot higher than for your lineup. Cruz has his uses on a major league roster as a power bat, but keep in mind that he’s a 28 year-old minor league slugger, not a hot young prospect. Don’t be fooled by that small sample size.

If you like your baseball careers unpredictable, than you will love Jose Guillen. The Pirates made him a full-time starter at the age of 21 and he looked overmatched. And then he regressed. After several years of irrelevance, Guillen bounced back with one of the most improbable years ever in 2003 when he put up an OPS+ of 142. Since then he’s posted three fairly productive seasons, one injury-marred campaign and last year’s mediocre effort.

In 2008, Guillen had three months where he batted .308 or better and three months where he hit .212 or worse. He had a 42-game stretch where he batted .176/.234/.294 but then rebounded to post an .865 OPS in his final 108 plate appearances.

The one thing that has remained constant throughout his career is Guillen’s refusal to take many walks. Last year his BB% was a dismal 3.7 percent, which amazingly only tied him for the seventh-lowest mark in the majors. It was the lowest rate in his career since his age 22 season in 1998. Not surprisingly, Guillen ranked sixth in MLB in F-Strike% (63.8%) and 24th in O-Swing % (31.6%).

But despite all those flaws, Guillen is still someone to keep tabs on during your draft. Even with last year’s disappointing numbers, he still put up 20 home runs and 97 RBIs. In his last five full seasons, Guillen has averaged 25 home runs and 92 RBIs. Those numbers alone make him a bottom-of-your-roster type guy.

The key for Guillen is his batting average. Last year his fantasy value was dragged down by his .264 average. But in 2007 he hit .290 and when you recall that he rarely walks, that becomes an AB-heavy .290, which helped make him a $20 player.

The perception is that Guillen is old and that he’s a malcontent. But while he’s been around forever, next year will be his age 33 season. And while he has worn out his welcome in several cities, managers will keep writing him in the lineup as long as he’s productive.

Guillen is an ideal late round pick. If his average rebounds (last year he had a 38-point BABIP drop) he is a plus player in three categories and an easy guy to ride during one of his frequent hot streaks. And if it doesn’t, he becomes an easy guy to cut when the 2009 Cliff Lee presents himself.

Outfielder Jeremy Hermida was the object of scouting and sabermetric admiration as his climbed up the Florida Marlins’ farm system. With a silky-smooth left-handed swing and tremendous plate discipline, Hermida frequently adorned top prospect lists from Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus. In fact, BA ranked the 6-3, 210 pounder as the 4th-best prospect in the minors in 2006, with BP valuing him as the 2nd-best talent down on the farm. His .284/.398/.436 career minor league line left something to be desired in the power department, but Hermida appeared to answer those questions with a monster .293/.457/.518 showing at AA Carolina in 2005.

Fresh off of smoking the Southern League, Hermida would have a scalding cup of coffee with the Marlins to end the ’05 season, batting .293/.383/.634 in 47 PA. Baseball Prospectus 2006 was smitten, writing that “if he stops he is he’s going to be a fine player, but if he develops along the normal curve he could be Bondsian.” Talk about high praise.

Despite the hype, 2006 would actually turn out to be something of a lost season for Hermida. He battled a hip flexor injury and never seemed fully healthy, batting just .251/.332/.368 in 348 PA. Hermida drew walks at a 9.7% clip, but without power (.117 Isolated Power) and with a rather high strikeout rate (22.8 K%). Still, he was just 22 years of age, and figured to improve significantly once he was healed up.

Hermida’s 2007 campaign went far more smoothly, as he hit a robust .296/.369/.501. His ISO jumped all the way up to .205, and he retained a solid walk rate, drawing a free pass 9.9% of the time. However, Hermida’s K rate did climb to 24.5%, and his .356 BABIP was pretty high. Given Hermida’s line drive rate (20.7%), we would have expected his BABIP to come in around .327 (the formula for expected BABIP is LD% + .120; .207 + .120= .327). If we take that into account, his line “should” have been about .267/.340/.472. That took some of the air out of Hermida’s season, but that still served as a significant improvement over the previous year’s work.

As a 24 year old in 2008, Hermida figured to build upon his ’07 showing, perhaps making good on the promise that his former top prospect status entailed. Instead, he took a step backward. Hermida wasn’t terrible, mind you, but his .249/.323/.406 line was roundly mediocre. The drop in his batting average was expected (when you whiff that often, you’re not going to hit .300 for an extended period of time), but his walk rate dipped to 8.7% and his ISO fell down to .157, basically splitting the difference between his punchless 2006 and powerful 2007. His already-high strikeout rate climbed to 27.5% as well.

Perhaps the most troubling aspect of Hermida’s down year was the continued erosion of his once-pristine strike-zone judgment. Noted for his take-and-rake style in the minors, Hermida has progressively become more liberal in terms of chasing bad balls out of the strike zone:

Hermida’s Outside Swing Percentage (O-Swing%), 2006-2008

2006: 19%
2007: 22.2%
2008: 27.8%

In addition to chasing more pitches out of the zone, Hermida also swung at fewer strikes this past season. His Z-Swing% dipped from 64.2% in 2007 to 59.6% in 2008. As he is getting older, Hermida is swinging at more balls and taking more strikes. That’s an inauspicious combination.

So, just what sort of player is Jeremy Hermida? Is he the Brian Giles clone that his minor league dossier suggests, or is he going to continue to disappoint? Baseball Prospectus 2008 offered an interesting (and insidious) possible career path for Hermida. Per PECOTA, Hermida’s most comparable player is Ben Grieve. For those of you who don’t remember, Grieve was a another big, left-handed batter who received plenty of prospect love for his patient approach. However, Grieve’s career quickly faded to black after he won the 1998 AL Rookie of the Year Award, as prohibitively high strikeout rates and mid-range power got the best of him. There are a number of similarities between Hermida and Grieve:

Jeremy Hermida

HT: 6-3 WT: 210
Career Minor League Line: .284/.398/.436, 18.5 BB%, 22K%, .152 ISO
Major League Line: .267/.342/.436, 9.5 BB%, 25.4 K%, .170 ISO

Ben Grieve

HT: 6-4 WT: 230
Career Minor League Line: .302/.407/.484, 16.9BB%, 19.8K%, .182 ISO
Major League Line: .269/.367/.442, 12.7 BB%, 24.4K%, .173 ISO

I know that it’s probably a little unfair to compare Hermida (25 in January) and his major league line thus far to Grieve’s entire line of work in the big leagues, but Grieve’s career was essentially over by the time he was 26.

None of this is to say that Hermida’s career is doomed; this is just one possible path for his development. Still, there are a lot of striking similarities between the two players, and the Marcel projection system does not foresee much of any improvement, forecasting a mild .271/.348/.440 line for 2009. Fantasy owners will want to use caution regarding Hermida, lest they suffer a Griev(e)ous fate as another top prospect falls short of expectations.