Bobby Abreu has long been a fantasy favorite due to his ability to provide help in all five categories. Who can’t use 22 SB from a guy posting a .296-20-100-100 line, like Abreu did last year?

But it’s a trying time for Abreu in real life, as he finds himself a free agent with very limited options. He is competing for a roster spot with better and/or younger players in Manny Ramirez, Adam Dunn and Pat Burrell. Garret Anderson and Ken Griffey are also on the market.

Abreu will sign somewhere eventually but fantasy owners still need to be a bit wary that he will remain an impact player. The reason for caution is that the past two seasons, Abreu has been a great hitter in Yankee Stadium and just a run-of-the-mill hitter in away parks.

H – .318-24-111-122-25
R – .260-12-90-101-22

It’s very common for players to hit better in their home parks but 58 points of AVG and twice as many HRs is enjoying home cooking more than most. Is that something Abreu can carry to his next home park?

There’s nothing particularly troubling in Abreu’s batting profile. He doesn’t walk as much as he used to but neither does he fan at similar rates that he did in the past. Abreu is still a line drive machine and he regularly features a robust BABIP. Last year’s mark of .333 was actually beneath his career .352 in the category.

Abreu will turn 35 before the start of the season and is at the age where players can fall off a cliff at any time. He should still be a productive fantasy hitter in 2009, but likely at a rate noticeably below what he’s done the past few years in the Bronx.

Hear me out.

Yeah, I know. Corey Patterson redefined the word awful last year. He was abysmal. Atrocious. Embarrassing. But you should still keep a close eye on him in 2009.

Patterson is a unique player: he is much better in fantasy baseball than he is in real life, thanks to his combination of power, speed, and lack of OBP. Last season, Patterson hit a disastrous .205/.238/.344 in 366 at bats for the Reds, but still somehow managed to hit 10 homers and steal 14 bases. Of course, these homer and SB totals do not justify the terrible batting average. But there is hope for the future.

Patterson’s expected BABIP last year (according to a new model I introduced [http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/batters-and-babip/]) was .262. His actual BABIP was a mere .210. The ~24% difference between expected and actual BABIP was the second-highest difference of all qualifying players (behind only Brandon Inge). If we credit Patterson for his “lost” hits, his overall batting average rises to .248. Still not great, but certainly far more palatable than .205.

Interestingly, Patterson’s walk rate in 2008 was right in line with his career rate (granted, that career rate is terribly low, but still), and his strikeout rate was almost 7% below his career average. His line-drive/ground ball/fly ball splits were well within reason and nothing else seems very strange about his season. Furthermore, he was 28 for most of the year (he turned 29 in August), suggesting that age-related decline is unlikely. It appears that Patterson simply suffered from a tremendous amount of bad luck.

If that is indeed the case, it follows that Patterson is likely to bounce back from it in 2009. Or, stated more accurately, Patterson’s poor 2008 season doesn’t make it more likely that he will also struggle in 2009. Don’t forget: as recently as 2006 and 2007, Patterson was a fantasy stud: he hit .276 and .269 those years, and totaled 24 homers and 82 steals in 267 games. Patterson’s career batting average is .253, and he has 182 career steals.

Unfortunately for Patterson, he accepted a minor league deal with the Nationals and an invitation to spring training. Jim Bowden has a particular fondness for outfielders, and the Nationals currently have Elijah Dukes, Lastings Milledge, Austin Kearns, Wily Mo Pena, Josh Willingham and Willie Harris. Even if Patterson returns to form, there’s almost no way he vaults ahead of three of those guys on the depth chart to make the team, let alone accumulate significant at bats.

However, there’s always room on some for a toolsy player who can play a mean center field. This is the exact type of player that sets the great fantasy owners apart from the good ones – Patterson can be had off of the waiver wire in just about every league, and if he gets even semi-regular playing time he will almost certainly rack up enough stolen bases to help you.

Keep your eye very closely on Corey Patterson.

Andrew McCutchen is a top prospect. Baseball Prospectus’s Kevin Goldstein rated him as a five-star prospect, second in the Pirates system to Pedro Alvarez. Similarly, Baseball America ranked him as the Pirates best prospect heading into the 2008 season. McCutchen spent 2008 at triple-A, and may be poised for a call up to the majors. Let’s look at what to expect from him from a fantasy perspective.

McCutchen was only 21 years old in 2008, but played the entire year at triple-A. Therefore, his line of .283/.372/.398 is actually a lot more impressive than it looks. Age is a crucially important factor in determining a prospect’s status, and any 21-year-old who can simply hold his own in triple-A is well ahead of the game. Although McCutchen didn’t show much power, a .372 OBP is quite a feat for someone so young.

However, McCutchen had an underwhelming line in double-A in 2007 as well, hitting .258/.327/.383. Again, he was only 20 at the time, so his line is a lot more impressive than it looks. Still, that’s two straight underwhelming seasons – so why is he even worth writing about?

Three reasons: first of all, McCutchen is probably a lot better than his lines from 2007 and 2008 showed; secondly, he is very likely to get called to the majors in 2009; finally, he could contribute to your fantasy team right away.

I’ve covered the idea that McCutchen is better than his lines showed – scouts love him, and he was so young for his level that simply being decent is quite an achievement. Furthermore, he has shown consistent improvement in both his walk rate and strikeout rate since 2006 – his walk rate has risen every year (even though he’s played against tougher competition), and his strikeout rate has fallen. Again, this is doubly impressive considering that McCutchen has moved up a level each year and is still so young.

Furthermore, the Pirates have an opening in center field. Yes, I know that Nate McLouth played there last season, hit quite well and even won a Gold Glove. However, simply put, McLouth is not even an average defensive center fielder – he was a whopping 40 plays below average (last among qualified “center fielders”), according to John Dewan’s numbers. Even if he’s not quite that bad in center, McLouth should hit enough to man a corner, and McCutchen is supposedly an above-average defender. Center field is McCutchen’s for the taking, and he should grab it some point in 2009.

Finally, McCutchen is an excellent long-term prospect, and many believe that he will develop power to complement his speed, defense, and improving plate discipline. However, his career slugging percentage in the minors is .414, and he’s hit a total of 39 homers in 462 career games. Therefore, it’s fair to surmise that while power may come in the future, he’s probably not going to hit 25 homers at the major league level in 2009.

However, McCutchen may be able to help you in the steals department. He stole 34 bases in 135 games in 2008, and even though he was caught 18 times, he’s only been caught 25% of the time he’s attempted a steal in the minors. In other words, McCutchen is probably an efficient enough base stealer that the Pirates won’t hesitate to turn him loose on the base paths.

Furthermore, McCutchen’s improving strikeout- and walk-rates suggest that he may be able to maintain a respectable batting average (and OBP) in the majors. The BA would help you for obvious reasons, but the OBP will help him get more opportunities to steal bases (and score runs).

McCutchen is unlikely to break camp with the team, and I’d guess that the Pirates are savvy enough (and far enough out of contention) so as to wait until late May or early June to bring McCutchen to the majors, thereby preventing him from attaining Super Two status in three years. He’s probably not going to make enough of an impact to make him draft-worthy in shallow mixed leagues (although those of you who play in leagues like this may want to snatch him up if/when he does get the call to the majors). However, anyone in deeper mixed leagues or NL Only leagues may want to stash him on your bench, as McCutchen could be an excellent source of steals when he finally gets called to the big leagues.

And for those of you in keeper leagues, there are few better long-term prospects than Andrew McCutchen.

Fantasy players love sluggers. And few sluggers have been more consistent than Adam Dunn, who has cleared the 40-HR mark five years in a row, with exactly 40 dongs the past four seasons. He’s also been right around the 100-RBI mark that same time span. Up until last year, he’s also been right around 100 Runs scored. But his fantasy value took a hit last year as he dropped from 101 R to 79 and saw his AVG fall from .264 to .236.

Dunn reached base via a hit or walk 239 times in 2007 and 244 times last year. But that increase of five was reached thanks to 22 extra walks. Dunn suffered a 47-point drop in BABIP, which led to a .262 mark last year. Most of that damage occurred in June, when his BABIP was .190 even after eliminating the 39 strikeouts in 87 at-bats. Interestingly, Dunn snapped out of his funk after Blue Jays general manager J.P. Ricciardi trashed him on a radio show, saying, “We’ve done our homework on guys like Adam Dunn and there’s a reason why we don’t want Adam Dunn.

“Do you know the guy doesn’t really like baseball that much?” Ricciardi said to the caller. “Do you know the guy doesn’t have a passion to play the game that much?”

Ricciardi’s rant occurred right before an Interleague Series between the Reds and Blue Jays. Up until the series against Toronto, Dunn was mired in a 6-75 (.080 AVG) slump. He went 4-12 versus the Blue Jays and hit .249/.387/.529 for the remainder of the season.

Because Dunn is so consistent with his HR and RBI, where he rates as a fantasy hitter depends a lot on his AVG. He provides fourth-round value if he hits in the .260s, like he did in 2004 and 2007. But when that mark drops into the .230s, like it did in 2006 and 2008, he’s only giving owners seventh-round (or later) value.

What makes Dunn so intriguing to fantasy players is that you can match him with certain players and come up with a really nice combination. He is a fine complement to Jose Reyes or Ichiro Suzuki, to name just two guys who will give you AVG and SB but who may be lacking in HR and RBI.

So, where should you draft Dunn in 2009?

A lot will depend if you (or any other owner in your league) decide to punt steals. But even ignoring that for a moment, it’s hard to think about drafting him before the end of the fourth round. There is simply too much variability in his track record to think about him in the first three rounds.

Even the fourth round is a bit of a stretch, unless you are trying to make up power and can take the AVG and SB hit. But if Dunn is still sitting there at the end of the sixth round any team, regardless of its makeup to that point, should consider adding him because he’s likely to bounce back in BABIP and AVG in 2009.

And if Dunn signs with the Cubs, he may be worthy of even a higher draft pick. He has a lifetime .664 SLG mark in Wrigley Field in 217 at-bats, the highest mark for any stadium in which he has more than 66 lifetime ABs.

The Braves are loaded with outfield prospects. Jason Heyward is one of the best prospects in the game. Gorkys Hernandez could be an everyday center fielder. And Jordan Schafer may be a future star. Of these three, Schafer is the closest to the majors, and bears watching in fantasy leagues in 2009.

Jordan Schafer’s 2008 season didn’t exactly start well. In fact, it was put on hold after 11 at bats: Schafer was suspended for 50 games for use of HGH. Schafer returned in June and played well in June and July for the Braves’s double-A affiliate in Mississippi, but he really turned it on in August. In 100 at bats in August, Schafer hit .320/.409/.630 with 6 homers and 7 doubles. Granted, it’s a small sample size, but it also would make sense that Schafer may need a month or two to get himself back into the game, physically and mentally.

Overall, Schafer hit .269/.378/.471 with 10 homers and 12 steals, which is extremely impressive for a 21-year old in double-A. He showed solid plate discipline, striking out 88 times but walking 49. And if we look closer, we can see that Schafer’s season was even more impressive.

Mississippi is generally a pitcher’s park, and it depressed homers by 18% in 2007. Schafer’s home/road splits reflect the difficult hitting environment in Mississippi: at home, Schafer hit .239/.378/.373, but on the road he hit .293/.376/.549. Schafer also hit nine of his ten homers on the road. Therefore, it’s fair to surmise that Schafer’s numbers would have been even better if he played half of his games in a more neutral environment.

On the flip side, Schafer really struggled against left handed pitching, hitting only .196/.306/.299 against southpaws, while crushing righties to the tune of .309/.416/.565. Schafer is still quite young and has plenty of time to improve against lefties – whether he is able to improve against them could be the difference between whether he becomes an above-average player or a star.

Jordan Schafer’s career thus far looks quite similar to another center fielder: Grady Sizemore. Sizemore’s performance at double-A was eerily similar to Schafer’s (minus the suspension), as Sizemore hit .304/.373/.480 with 13 homers and 10 steals (and a 73/49 K/BB ratio) –remember, Schafer hit .269/.378/.471 with 10 homers and 12 steals (and a 88/49 K/BB ratio). Sizemore’s line was more impressive – Sizemore was only 20 at the time, while Schafer was 21, and Sizemore’s strikeout rate was much better than Schafer’s. However, Sizemore – like Schafer – struggled mightily against lefties, and Sizemore – like Schafer – had a well-rounded game and scouts could easily project power in the future.

Obviously, Jordan Schafer is unlikely to become Grady Sizemore. Sizemore developed nearly perfectly, Sizemore’s season at double-A was slightly better than Schafer’s, and Sizemore was a year younger at the time (which makes a huge difference). However, the similarities between the two are not to be taken lightly, and even if Schafer doesn’t become as good as Sizemore, Schafer can still be a star.

Atlanta has never been hesitant to promote young players to the majors, and there are no major roadblocks to prevent Schafer from ascending to the big leagues. He offers a unique blend of speed and power, and has enough plate discipline that he should be an asset even without a high batting average. Schafer’s strikeout rate wasn’t terrible, but it was high enough to suggest that he could have a rather low batting average, at least in his first year or two in the majors, but he offers enough additional skills that he could be useful to you anyway.

Schafer is still young and may struggle in his first taste of the big leagues. Don’t expect him to storm into the majors like Jay Bruce did last year. However, if Schafer gets 300 at bats, he could hit 10 homers and steal 10 bases, while scoring and driving in a fair amount of runs and hitting .250 or so. There is some value in a player like that, especially a mid-season waiver-wire pickup. Schafer’s long-term star is very, very bright, but his 2009 may be somewhat of a disappointment.

It seems like Lastings Milledge has been around forever, but in fact the Nationals outfielder is only 23 years old, and may be on the cusp of breaking out.

Milledge hit an underwhelming .268/.330/.402 in a 138 games this year, with 14 homers and 24 steals (in 33 attempts). He also struck out 18.4% of the time and walked only 6.8% of the time. However, Milledge appears to have improved during the season. On July 31, Milledge was hitting only .237/.300/.351 with 7 homers and 13 steals. However, from August 1 on, Milledge hit an impressive .318/.378/.485 with 7 homers and 11 steals in only 52 games.

Of course, it is certainly possible that Milledge’s impressive August and September can be attributed to a small sample size fluke. But it is also possible that Milledge has begun to refine his game. Many people forget about how young Lastings is – most 23 year olds are not playing every day in the majors. Milledge’s minor league numbers suggest that he could be successful in the majors, and that he could develop power to go along with his speed.

Next season, Milledge will once again be a starting outfielder for the Nationals. It will be interesting to see if he can build on his excellent finish to the 2008 campaign, but Milledge may be a guy worth taking a risk on for your fantasy team. The upside is enormous, as Lastings has the chance to post an excellent batting average, steal somewhere around 25-35 bases, and even hit 20+ homers. There is a lot of risk involved, as Milledge stunk for the majority of the 2008 season. However, few young players have the fantasy potential of Milledge, making that risk easier to stomach.

You shouldn’t be relying on Milledge for guaranteed production, but he’d make an excellent late-round flier thanks to his large amount of upside.

The Rays cashed in some of their starting pitching depth by trading Edwin Jackson to the Tigers in exchange for Matt Joyce. What can we expect from Joyce in 2009?

It looks as if Joyce will be the primary right fielder for the Rays in 2009. And if there’s one thing that Joyce has consistently shown throughout his career, it’s that he can rake against righties.

Joyce hit .252/.339/.492 in 277 plate appearances with the Tigers this year – including a .255/.333/.509 line against righties. His splits in the minors are even more dramatic: this season Joyce hit .270/.352/.550 in triple-A, but crushed righties to the tune of .286/.366/.610. These trends are visible throughout Joyce’s minor league career, except for his stint in double-A, where he hit lefties and righties approximately equally.

Joyce has shown the propensity to strike out quite often in his career, and looks like he may be a “Three True Outcome” player – although probably not to the same extent as someone like Adam Dunn. However, it’s unlikely that Joyce will hit for a particularly high batting average, even though his BABIP in the majors (.293) was lower than his BABIP in the minors from this year (.328) or last year (.319). Marcel projects his batting average to be .266, which seems reasonable, if a touch optimistic.

Joyce’s power, however, seems to be real. He hits a lot of fly balls – 47.5% of his balls in play were fly balls this year – and appears to be strong enough to muscle a lot of them out of the park. In fact, 14.1% of Joyce’s fly balls left the park this year, and he hit 25 homers in only 442 at bats between triple-A and the majors.

The Rays are certainly aware of Joyce’s limitations against lefties, and are likely to pair him with another outfielder who can hit lefties better. Therefore, Joyce is unlikely to be an everyday player; however, that doesn’t mean he’s not valuable. This year he crushed 25 homers despite getting less than 500 at bats – there’s no reason why he can’t homer at that pace again next year. Joyce will be particularly valuable in leagues with daily updates, since you can bench him whenever the Rays face a lefty. However, Joyce will still be very valuable in weekly update leagues as well, since when he does face righties he’s likely to be very, very good.

Matt Joyce is probably not a top tier fantasy outfielder, thanks to his struggles against left handed pitching. However, there are far more righties than lefties out there for him to face, and Joyce should mash against righties, and could supply 25-30 homers even if he’s platooned, thus making him a very valuable commodity late in drafts.

As an ardent Pittsburgh Pirates fan, I have to admit that discussing B.J. Upton is something of an exercise in masochism. A wonderfully talented player, Upton nonetheless is a constant, sharp, prodding reminder of years of aimless drafting by the Bucs, motivated by frugality more than future upside. Add in the fact that Bryan Bullington (the Pirates’ ill-fated, 1st overall selection) is now in his third organization and a cornucopia of other ’02 first-rounders have borne fruit for their respective teams, and it’s enough to send this writer curling up into a ball playing Sister Sledge’s “We Are Family” until the unpleasant memories subside.

But enough of that. Today, I come to discuss Upton’s seemingly unlimited variety of skills. Expectations have certainly been high for the Norfolk, Virginia native ever since the Rays gladly snatched him up with the 2nd overall pick after the Pirates shot themselves in the foot, and Upton has more than held his own to this point. A career .277/.367/.426 hitter who made his debut in 2004, Upton is still just 24 years of age. He has displayed every tool that you could possibly desire in a major league player at some point during his time with the Rays. Let’s take a look at Upton’s multi-faceted game…

Plate Discipline: Upton has displayed an extremely selective eye for such a young player, drawing walks at a 12.4% clip during the course of his career. He posted the best walk rate of his career in 2008 (15.4%), and swung at just 15% of pitches thrown outside of the strike zone. That figure tied Cardinals third baseman Troy Glaus for the lowest mark among all qualified batters. With such a judicious approach, Upton fell behind 0-and-1 in the count or put the ball in play on the first pitch rarely, with a first-pitch strike percentage (F-Strike%) of 55.2%.

Power: Sure, Upton’s power output in ’08 was not extraordinary (.401 SLG%, .128 ISO), but the man was playing with a torn labrum in his left shoulder that sapped his pop for most of the year. Improved health during the postseason brought with it a surge in power, as Upton crushed nearly as many long balls (seven) in the playoffs as he did during the regular season (nine). B.J. slugged .508 with a .209 ISO in 2007, showing that he can hammer the ball as well as work the count.

Speed: While Upton’s shoulder precluded him from jogging around the bases with regularity, there was nothing wrong with his legs in 2008. The 6-3, 185 pounder swiped 44 bags, doubling his 2007 total. He could stand to be a little more selective (he got caught 16 times for a 73.3% success rate), but his base thievery still resulted in a positive 3.6 run contribution for the Rays (.22 for a SB, -.38 for a CS).

Contact Ability: This one is a little trickier to predict. Upton’s contact rate rose from 72.8% in 2007 to 80.5% this past season, and consequently his K rate dipped from 32.5% to 25.2%. We know that his power was down during the regular season. Did Upton, perhaps aware that he wasn’t as likely to slam a pitch over the fence, cut down on his swing in an effort to make more contact? And will those contact gains fade as he shows more extra-base pop and presumably swings for the bleachers with more frequency?

You name the skill, and Upton has shown it as some point during his big league tenure. Via Baseball-Reference, I found a very intriguing name among Upton’s most comparable players through age 23: Carlos Beltran.

Like Upton, Beltran is a center fielder who comes equipped with a tool set that would make Home Depot swoon: a very selective eye, solid power and excellent speed. It remains to be seen whether or not Upton’s raw athleticism will translate as well afield as it has for Beltran (per UZR, Upton was 4.6 runs above average in ’08), but the offensive comparison appears apt. Still a very young man and brimming with ability, Upton has future MVP written all over him.

Entering the 2008 season, Twins outfielder Denard Span was considered a mid-range prospect who never made good on his lofty draft status. The 20th overall pick on the 2002 amateur draft, Span was an all-state wide receiver as well as a baseball star in high school. In their preview of the ’02 draft, Baseball America rated Span as possessing 70 speed on the 20-to-80 scouting scale and remarked that, “it’s easy to look at him and dream of Kenny Lofton.” The 6-0, 205 pound lefty was supposed to become a sparkplug for the Twinkies, working the count and then wreaking havoc on the base paths.

However, despite all of the accolades, Span’s stats rarely matched his glowing scouting reports. Span moved rather slowly through Minnesota’s system and rarely got the ball out of the infield, barely slugging above .300 between Rookie Ball and the Low-A Midwest League between 2003 and 2004. 2005 brought with it some promise, as the Florida native hit .339/.410/.403 in the High-A Florida State League and .285/.355/.345 upon earning a promotion to the AA Eastern League, but his momentum was once again stunted upon returning to Double-A New Britain in 2006 (.285/.340/.349).

Span was bumped up to AAA Rochester in 2007, which would end up being the lowest point in his career. Span batted just .267/.323/.355, without working the count (7.6 BB%) or helping matters on the bases (64 SB% in 39 attempts). Following his lackluster campaign, both Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus soured on Span. BA rated him as just the fourth best center field prospect in the Twins’ system, while BP commented that “there is not much reason to believe he can be more than an extra outfielder.” At the time, it was hard to argue with either of those pronouncements. After all, Span was just a career .282/.349/.347 hitter, with average plate discipline and a propensity for being called out on the base paths (66.2 SB%).

Just when it seemed as though Span would be regarded as an exorbitantly-priced version of Lew Ford, he suddenly started to hit like a Lofton proxy. After a red-hot start at Rochester (14.3 BB%, .915 OPS in 156 AB), Span found himself seeing regular playing time for the Twins in the absence of Michael Cuddyer. In 411 PA, Span hit .294/.387/.432, posting a .364 wOBA and a 1.73 WPA/LI that paced all Minnesota outfielders. Though Span’s huge 25.7 line drive rate figures to fall, his .342 BABIP wasn’t excessively high.

Ordinarily, one might regard Span’s season as a blip, a flash in the pan. How often does a career disappointment suddenly start raking in the majors? However, there are some reasons to think that Span made some legitimate improvements in his game this past season. He drew walks at a 12.6% clip for the Twinkies while keeping his K rate in check (17.3%). His contact rate was a healthy 88.7%, and he almost never strayed from the strike zone, with an OSwing% of just 16.7%. That was the 10th-lowest figure among batters with at least 400 PA. Span’s stolen base prowess improved somewhat, at least to the point where he wasn’t harming his team (using the .22 run value for a SB and the -.38 value for a CS, Span’s 18/25 season came out to a net positive of 1.3 runs).

It’s not that uncommon for a player to experience a single-season hike in batting average or power, but it’s far more rare for a batter to show much-improved plate patience and then give all of those gains back the following year. Span’s increased walk rate and very low O-Swing% paint the picture of a hitter who refined his control of the strike zone and took a more mature approach with him to the batter’s box. Span might not be a star in the making, but as a high-OBP player with some speed, he could be a nice contributor to both the Twins and fantasy owners.

Can you name the last 10 opening day centerfielders for the San Diego Padres? Most likely not, so I’ll provide them in list form:

2008 – Scott Hairston
2007 – Mike Cameron
2006 – Dave Roberts
2005 – Xavier Nady
2004 – Jay Payton
2003 – Mark Kotsay
2002 – Mark Kotsay
2001 – Mike Darr
2000 – Ruben Rivera
1999 – Ruben Rivera

That’s a lot of turnover in a short period of time, which is a large part why the Padres hope William Venable will be able to lock down center for the next few seasons. As you may have heard by now, Venable is the son of William “Max” Venable, a former Giant, Expo, Red, and Angel, and the man the rebuilding Padres will turn to beginning in 2009.

Venable is a former Ivy Leaguer who also played baseball and basketball at Princeton University. Venable’s minor league stats reflect his willingness, at times, to draw walks. In 2006, Venable’s BB% was 10.4, that number dropped to 6.9 in 2007, and rose in 2008 to 9.1 in Triple-A. In a touch over 120 major league plate appearances Venable’s BB% sat at a healthy 10.6%. A bit surprisingly Venable has also shown some power potential, posting ISOs of .163, .095, .172, and .127 over his past four stops.

Despite stealing 39 bases in 2006 and 2007, Venable has stolen only eight since. Meaning is value is going to be limited to runs scored, and here’s the bad news, Venable is going to be playing in one of the worst lineups in baseball next season. He’ll earn most of his value with his leather, and unless your league somehow implements UZR, you’re unlikely to find value with Venable.