Sometimes you just can’t find a quip at the ready. You’re watching the all-star festivities, thinking about all the wonders of baseball and perusing the newest about Pitch F/X, Hit F/X, and now even Game F/X, and you think something will come. But there you are, and all you have is….

Kendry Morales – Projection systems often have trouble with breakouts, so maybe it’s not surprising that ZiPS projects Morales to basically halve his home run production from here on out, finishing with 23 home runs instead of the 26 or 27 he might otherwise be on pace for.

One can’t really blame the system for being pessimistic, however. He had only 19 home runs in 402 at-bats in the major and minor leagues combined last year, and only nine home runs in 401 total minor league at bats the year before. Why would this player approach 30 home runs?

Perhaps the pessimism also stems from Morales’ consistently low line drive percentages. When a player seems to lack home run power, the pundits fall back on the idea that he is a ‘line drive hitter’ or can ‘drive it in the gaps.’ Instead, it seems that Morales is the type of hitter that avoids the strikeout (16.9% career) in favor of putting the ball in play, often on the ground (44.9% ground ball rate). It certainly isn’t his line drive percentage (15.3% career, 17.5% this year).

One thing should be said: with a fly-ball rate over 40%, he could up the power. Lance Berkman and Adrian Gonzalez also own similar fly ball rates and have a little power. Morales’ HR/FB rate has increased every year and he may some day hit 30 home runs if only because he’s listed at 26 years old and has more baseball to play. He has also repeated AAA three times while waiting for his chance – he probably couldn’t be better prepared for this, and his peak is probably still on the way.

The year-27 peak theory has been disproved for the most part. An oft-referenced study by Schulz et al, done in 1994 by surveying the statistics of over 388 players that were active in 1965, found that major league baseball players peak between 25 and 28 years old. The reason for the range is that their peak is usually determined by their age when they broke into the majors. It follows that you would peak later if you debuted later. But the law of the bell curve also applies, and the later you join the league, the earlier you leave the league for the most part.

If this Cuban first baseman is actually 26 years old, he’s joining the majors early enough to have better years in front of him. For those in keeper leagues, this first half at least shows that he belongs and will play long enough to probably have a better year in sometime soon in his career.

However, if he’s closer to 30 and the owner of a false birth certificate like many other Cuban players, this is most likely his peak and he probably won’t be a starter in the majors for very long. That much we do know about the bell curves of major league players as it relates to their ages and their performances.

Andruw Jones bashed three home runs last evening, taking his total up to 14 long balls for the season. Jones’ triple-slash line rests at .250/.348/.581, with a wOBA of .392. On a per-at-bat basis, Andruw has by far been Texas’ most productive hitter. Can you believe this is the same fellow who had to settle for a one-year, $500K deal this past winter?

One year ago, Jones was public enemy number one in Los Angeles. The ink was barely dry on the Curacao native’s two-year, $36.2M pact before the questions started rolling in. Jones looked to be following the David Wells training regimen, and a balky knee bothered him throughout the season. Jones produced one of the most execrable lines that you’ll ever see while in L.A. In 238 trips to the dish, Andruw “hit” .158/.256/.249, which translates to a wOBA of .234. For reference, Tony Pena Jr.’s career wOBA is .238.

Jones’ plummet was difficult to foresee. He entered the 2008 campaign at a listed age of 31. Subjectively, a player with a broad-based skill set such as Andruw’s would seem to be a good candidate to age well. During a “down” 2007 season, he was worth 3.6 Wins Above Replacement, a near-All-Star level of performance. Yet, he just couldn’t hit anything. It scarcely mattered what the opposition decided to toss, Jones would be headed back to the dugout accompanied by a smattering of boo’s:

Jones’ runs/100 pitches, 2008:

Fastball: -1.01
Slider: -1.38
Cutter: -7.67
Curveball: -3.49
Changeup: -2.86
Splitter: -7.51

Despite his macabre work on the West Coast, the Rangers decided to give Jones an opportunity to make the club. Texas’ no-risk acquisition has rewarded them, big time. Jones had severe issues making contact last season (36.4 K%), but he has reduced his K rate to a more reasonable 25% this season. After grounding out 47.8% of the time with the Dodgers (well above his 41.4% average dating back to 2002), Andruw has rolled over the ball 36.9% in 2009. There’s a big rebound in his number of flyballs hit (38.8% in ’08 to 46.7% in ’09).

Jones has jumped on fastballs this year, with a run value of +2.14/100 pitches. He’s also in the black against sliders (+0.84) and changeups (+0.90), while posting negative values against cutters (-0.52) and curves (-2.36).

In less than 200 trips to the plate, with limited time in the field, Andruw has already managed to accumulate 1.4 WAR. Jones has some relatively minor performance bonuses based on PA’s, but he has delivered a massive return on investment for the Rangers. It’s probably too late to snatch Jones off the waiver wire, but he looks locked in right now. Expecting this level of offense is likely unreasonable. But if he continues to hit anywhere near this well, the Rangers are simply going to have to find more AB’s for the former Braves star. Jones stumbled badly last year, but he’s back to being an asset.

The dust has settled after a mini-fury of deals for the Pirates, and it looks like a couple young outfielders ended up gaining some playing time. The bad news is that, beyond wunderkind Andrew McCutchen, this outfield is deeply flawed. No matter, let’s see what benefit deep-league managers can mine from the group.

Delwyn Young – In terms of major league experience, the starting right fielder for the Buccs is not yet fully formed. His .280/.360/.404 line represents only 280 big league at-bats. It’s not yet time to close the book on his potential, especially in his 27th year on the planet. With a few notches up in each component of the slash-line, for example, and you’ve suddenly got an outfielder with some speed and some power and an .800 OPS. That’s value, and depending on how deep your league is, it’s time to pounce just on upside alone.

How much upside is left in this right fielder is worth taking a look at. His minor league slash line (.303/.363/.514 in over 3000 plate appearances) shows some slugging ability that he hasn’t really shown in the major leagues. Unfortunately, some of his more recent slugging performances (.571 in AAA in 2007, for example) have been in Las Vegas, which played about 10% in the hitter’s favor from 2006-2008. Shave 10% off that high water mark and you’re right in line with his career minor league production.

In general, Young cut his strikeouts and upped his walks as he advanced in the Dodgers’ minor league system, which can only be seen as a positive. On the flip side, however, he was old for every station, as he signed at 20 and hit AA at 23 years old. With 28 steals against 18 caught stealings, Young doesn’t show much stolen base capability despite some okay speed scores in the minors (5.1 and 5.5 in his last AAA appearances). So the oscillating slugging ability provides the big question for Young. The fact that he managed to accrue over 100 home runs in over 700 minor league games says there’s at least a chance Young can find his way to some more power in the major leagues.

But in terms of staying power in the major leagues, his bat probably won’t play at the corner outfield position for very long (at least at current slugging levels). He was a decent-fielding 2B in the minor leagues. If he starts fielding balls there again, his long term prospects improve.

Garrett Jones – Jones is another player with a well-established minor league line and very few chances in the majors. His 4185 plate appearances in the minors have resulted in an unsightly slash line (.258/.312/.450), and both the Braves and Twins organizations have given up on him despite both needing slugging in the outfield.

Three years ago, Jones was coming off 140 games in his second go at AAA, and he might have thought his career was in the balance because of his putrid showing (.238/.302/.430). But he bucked up and put up some numbers that caught the Pirates’ eyes. He’s had better than a .800 OPS for three straight years at AAA since, with a batting average over .280 and a slugging percentage close to .500. He also showed the best strikeout rates of his career to date, as he cut his near-20% rate down to around 15%.

If he can maintain his power with the new strikeout rate in the major leagues, he has a chance of strengthening his tenuous grip on a job. He’s battling Brandon Moss, whose .263/.313/.383 production this year is reminding people of his fourth-outfielder label coming up in the Boston system. Jones certainly has more power potential than the speedier Moss, and slugging two home runs in his first weekend as a Buc helped his chances of catching a regular job.

Few 27- and 28-year-old rookies even rise to the level of an average major-league regular. Give the Bucs some credit for fielding two somewhat-promising players in this category, but the odds say that they’ll be lucky to find one regular outfielder between the two. Because Young’s numbers were more consistent in the minor leagues, and he’s a year younger than Jones, he seems to be the better bet.

Many fantasy leagues break the outfielders up by their respective positions, a quirk that creates a premium outfield position. Consider that, in many formats, the 12th-ranked center fielder going into the season was Chris Young, whose projections were comparable to the 12th-ranked second baseman going into the season (Rickie Weeks).

Defense then becomes a non-fantasy entity that can mean a lot to the fantasy fortunes of the center fielder. Play good defense, and you’ll buy yourself more time to figure out the batting part of the deal. Or at least, that seems to be what’s keeping Carlos Gomez playing in Minnesota. Let’s take a look at two young center fielders, how they are faring, and how defense factors into the decision.

Dexter Fowler – For a 23-year-old getting his first extended burn at the major league level, Fowler is acquitting himself reasonably well. His .264/.354/.405 slash line has a little bit of something for everyone. Walking 12.7% of the time assures that he can take advantage of his prodigious speed (6.5 speed score). He’s stolen 13 bases at a 72% success rate, and he’s hit three homers and 17 doubles in 273 plate appearances.

But it’s not all gravy on this train. He’s striking out 25% of the time after hovering around 20% for the large part of his minor league career. Subsequently, ZiPS RoS has him hitting .271 the rest of the season and continuing his current pace to finish with seven home runs and 25 stolen bases. Until his K-rate falls a little, that’s about the best that can be expected from this young man.

Because his offense is currently adequate, and his team is suddenly playing well, defense may not factor into his playing time too strongly. However, his team is not a strong contender in a crowded division, and things could change quickly. Pack an extended burn of strikeouts into a team-wide slump and a decision by management to focus on next year, and suddenly Fowler’s sub-par defense could become an ‘issue.’

His current 2.1 Range Factor in center field puts him in the Shane Victorino (2.3 RF) – Vernon Wells (2.3 RF) section of center field defenders. That’s the section where the offense helps the poor defense stay on the field. Is Fowler’s bat enough to offset the 5.3 runs he’s giving back on defense? Not if the major league team decides to think about his long-term future and sends him back to the minors to work on his D. That might also allow the team to showcase someone like Ryan Spilborghs for a trade.

Fernando Martinez – While his minor league team had already decided to play him at the corners, his major league team has a major league hole in center field and looks to be plugging it with their highest-ranked prospect. A look at the defense says that this is a short-term solution at best.

If major league defensive stats are still in their infancy, then minor league ones are much worse off. We can see that Martinez had a Range Factor of 2.31 in center field in the minor leagues, and that Carlos Beltran, an elite defender, had a career Range Factor of 2.7 in center field in the major leagues. Using the cruder Range Factor suggests that Martinez, like Fowler, could use some time honing his defense.

The problem in Martinez’ case, though, is that his offense won’t keep him in the position much longer. While his secondary offensive statistics are a little up and down like Fowler’s, Martinez has much more down in his numbers.

The good news is that he’s not striking out a ton (14.5%), and he’s shown improvement in that area over the last two years. His walk rate (6.8%) is in line with his minor league numbers, too.

But he’s not making good contact. He’s reaching outside the zone too much (26.5%) and not squaring the ball well (11.9% line drives). His 55.9% ground-ball percentage is positively Delmon Young-esque. Given that he’s only 20 years old, it’s a lot to ask of him to spell Beltran.

Since the team is in contention, look for Omar Minaya to target a center field platoon partner for Jeremy Reed. Relatively cheap acquisitions like Scott Hairston and Jason Michaels could take the bat out of Reed’s hands against lefties, while also letting young F-Mart work out some more kinks in the minor leagues. Those cheaper veteran outfielders would also still have value once all the injured veterans return.

In the “post-steroid” era, the idea is that careers will be shorter and production in a player’s late thirties will decline rapidly. Without conjecturing about the steroid use of these two older men, we can take a look at the numbers and see two guys that are seemingly sustaining decent levels of production despite their advancing years. Their last hurrahs should even continue – provided they stay off the DL (or the Pavano as those in New York may call it).

Jim Thome – Really, the only piece of bad news when it comes to the 38-year-old Thome is that he’s striking out more than he has since 2001. Striking out doesn’t do wonders for a man’s batting average – and Thome’s .256 batting average might scare some people off. But you don’t own Thome for his batting average, since it has been in decline for three straight years and his career number sits at .278 anyway.

Will the power continue? That is the big question. Amazingly, some of his secondary power numbers are above his career norms. Check his home run per fly ball percentage (30.0% this year, 27.8% career) and his line drive percentage (21.1% this year, 20.3% career). The only worry is that he’s hitting a high number of infield flies (12.5%), and the last time he cracked double digits in that department was his disastrous 2005 campaign with the Phillies (.207/.360/.352).

With everything else in line with his career numbers, Thome looks pretty safe. Keep an eye on his infield flies and as long as they trend toward his norms, you’ve got a safe geezer on your squad. Let him collect the long balls as long as he’s in uniform.

Gary Sheffield – Sheffield’s case is less cut and dry than Thome’s and his decline has been more precipitous over the past couple years. After his .225/.326/.400 disasterpiece last year, the Tigers had seen enough and let the 40-year-old go. They did this despite the fact that their current DH, Marcus Thames, has a .765 lifetime versus righties, compared to Sheff’s .898.

No matter. It seems that Manuel’s philosophy of running Sheffield out there until he found what he had lost worked. Now his starting right fielder is boasting a more than decent .270/.390/.482 and fantasy owners are wondering if he can continue his success.

First, the bad news. Despite his rocket bat speed, he’s never been a good line drive hitter (17.2% career) and he’s on a three-year decline that has exacerbated the situation. His current percentage (12.4%) may not sustain his current .283 BABIP, meaning his ZiPS RoS projection might be spot-on in terms of his batting average (.242). Certainly, the ‘old’ way of projecting BABIP (line drive rate plus .12) would suggest that he’s in for a decline in the batting average department.

One thing that the old method does not account for, however, is speed. His current 4.5 speed score puts him in speedy company – right ahead of Alfonso Soriano and Emmanuel Burriss. Normally, his 53.1% groundball percentage (the highest of his recent career) would be seen as a negative. But perhaps Sheffield is relying on his decent speed and actually benefiting from the increased grounder rate.

One this is for certain – he’s not your typical aging slugger. After all, he stole 22 bases just two years ago. Here’s thinking that his speed will help him beat his batting average projections from here on out, and that Sheff will keep cooking at this rate.

Toronto Blue Jays DH/LF Adam Lind entered the 2009 season with plenty of questions about his long-term prospects. A 3rd-round pick out of South Alabama in the 2004 amateur draft, Lind lashed minor league pitching (including a mammoth .330/.394/.556 slash line between AA New Hampshire and AAA Syracuse in 2006). The southpaw also enjoyed a scalding cup of coffee with the Jays late in the ’06 season (.432 wOBA in 65 plate appearances). Unfortunately, he then proceeded to frustrate hopeful Jays fans and fantasy owners for the next two seasons.

Given the beat down he gave International League pitching and his hot start with Toronto, Lind’s 2007 season had to be considered a disappointment. He posted a .238/.278/.400 line in 311 PA, with a paltry .291 wOBA. Lind often went fishin’ off the plate, chasing nearly 30 percent of pitches outside of the strike zone (25 percent MLB average in ’07). That impatience led to a 5.2% walk rate and a high first-pitch strike percentage. Adam offered at the first pitch or got behind in the count 0-1 61.7% of the time (58.8% MLB average that year). Lind was optioned to the minors in July, and while he struggled upon being brought up again in September (.255 OBP), the Jays still held high hopes. After all, Lind was still just 23.

His work in 2008 looked better on the surface (.282/.316/.439, .325 wOBA in 349 PA), but much of that improvement was a boost in BABIP (.271 in ’07, .322 in ’08) despite a similar line drive rate. In terms of controlling the strike zone, Lind continued to scuffle. His walk rate dipped to 4.7 percent, while he chased even more pitches off the dish (34 outside-swing percentage). His first-pitch strike percentage hiked up to 64.2%. That placed Lind among other hacking luminaries such as Jose Castillo, Chris Davis and Miguel Olivo.

With two years of tepid performances in the batter’s box, Lind was under the microscope this past spring. Most every projection system pegged him as a league-average hitter. CHONE, Marcel, ZiPS and Oliver all had Lind projected for a wOBA somewhere between .326 and .339, with an OBP in the .320’s and a slugging percentage around .450. Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA system churned out a similar .272/.326/.458 prognostication.

We’re well into June now, and Lind is demolishing those forecasts. 26 in July, Lind is batting a robust .310/.375/.552, good for a .397 wOBA. While he hasn’t turned into a walk machine, Lind has upped his rate of free passes to a more tolerable 8.8 percent.

His outside-swing percentage has been pared down to 27.1 percent, within shouting distance of the 24.8 percent MLB average. After posting a .162 Isolated Power in 2007 and .156 in 2008, Lind is driving the ball to the tune of a .243 mark in 2009. He chopped the ball into the dirt over 50 percent of the time in ’08, but that mark is down to 43.2 percent this season. His first-pitch strike percentage is just 53.4 percent, below the big league average (57.9) for the first time in his career.

Lind’s biggest gains have come against breaking pitches. He struggled with sliders in ’07 and ’08 (with run values of -1.37 and -1.56 per 100 pitches, respectively), but he’s smoking them for a +2.56 run value per 100 tosses this season. Slightly below-average versus curves in 2008 (-0.50 per 100 pitches), Lind has hammered the hook for a +3.54 value this year (8th-best among qualified hitters).

Lind’s scorching start to the 2009 season does not look like a mirage. He’s doing exactly what you’d like a hitter to do: he’s showing more restraint by laying off pitcher’s pitches off the plate, working the count, improving his performance against breaking stuff and hitting fewer grounders. It may have taken him a while to figure things out, but Lind looks like legitimate breakout hitter.

Guys,
Haven’t seen a mailbag since the 14th and wanted to get your thoughts on this.

Thanks, Big Oil

Thanks for the question, and since readership has been high for these, we will continue to do them.

My initial response is that I don’t like the deal. If you only keep four, you always want to consolidate your keeper talent. That much is probably not news to you, but Grady Sizemore blend of speed and power is matched by only a handful of players. Owning him puts you ahead of the game because you don’t need to pick a speed-only guy high in the draft – if at all.

Upon a closer review, I can see the enticement. Your current third basemen are not up to snuff in a mixed league, and though you are competing now, you may fall behind without Aramis Ramirez and his considerable production at the hot corner. I don’t fault you for looking for a better option at third base, not at all.

However, I still go with ‘no,’ even after more reflection. I don’t want you to keep a second 1B (Adrian Gonzalez is good, but first base is a deep position), and Jay Bruce and Justin Upton are exciting players that probably won’t steal like Sizemore. Upton is close, as he is on pace for over 15 stolen bases this year and has always shown good speed in the minors.

But speed is not his game like Sizemore’s. Consider that Sizemore stole 96 bases in the minors (in 529 games) while Upton totaled 36 in 231 games. Er, that was a suprising statistic. Guess it makes sense that Upton’s four-component speed score of 6.7 this year would better Sizemore’s since 2006.

Hmmm. On second thought, fly that flag. Go for the win and do the trade. Upton looks like a good consolation prize right now, and at 21 is coming into his own. You can deal your surplus 3B at the end of the year if you want to consolidate keepers.

In a 12 team mixed league, I have a staff of Sabathia, Chamberlain, Greinke, Kershaw, Porcello, Maholm, and Sonnanstine. I am going with 2 closers and am using Joba’s RP status to plug in an extra starter. I also had Kawakami on my bench, but dumped him and someone else scooped him up. I am growing impatient with Sonny and am wondering if I should cut bait and pick up someone else. I am near the top of ERA, WHIP, Wins, but could use more Ks and could go back to 3 true RPs. Any thoughts?

Thanks! K.G.

Andy Sonnanstine shouldn’t be owned in most formats. Seriously, I took a longer look at his stats than I deemed necessary, and I still didn’t see anything I liked.

His mediocre stuff just holds him back. While he’s still not walking too many to be productive (2.92 per nine), he’s still not striking out enough to really matter (5.29 K/9). How is he going to strike people out with an 87 MPH fastball, an 87 MPH cutter, a 77 MPH slider, and a 74 MPH curveball? That’s just too many pitches at the same speed with similar movement.

Look at this chart for his vertical movement. You can see why he’s suddenly using his cutter more, because it’s the only one that moves differently on the vertical plane. Consider that his cutter used to move less, and the possibility of a regression to an already-unattractive mean is not a happy thought.

Sonnanstine is a decent number four or five in real life baseball, just on the basis of his stinginess with the walks. That shouldn’t be too attractive in fantasy baseball. Go find a reliever that might get you some saves. (Oh and trade Paul Maholm high, because he’s got too much in common with Sonnanstine to get comfortable with him.)

Our email address for this feature is rotographs+mailbag@fangraphs.com, so send in your questions! Remember to try to give us all relevant information in the fewest words possible, and you’ll be all set.

Half a game out of first place in the National League East division, the New York Mets club is struggling to field a competitive lineup with its infirmary overflowing. Everyday players Brian Schneider, Carlos Delgado, Jose Reyes, and Ryan Church are all on the disabled list – as is back-up infielder Alex Cora.

One of the beneficiaries of this unfortunate situation is the club’s top offensive prospect Fernando Martinez. Signed out of the Dominican Republic as a 16 year old, Martinez’ big-league arrival has been highly anticipated by many. The expectations have probably been a little unreasonable, which is to be expected when someone plays for a New York sports team. Martinez has received some flak for being inconsistent to this point in his career, but he started playing professional baseball at 17, he reached double-A as a teenager and he’s still just 20 years old. Patience, as they say, is a virtue.

Throughout his inconsistent play, Martinez has shown flashes of brilliance. He does a lot of things well and he’s loaded with raw talent. Prior to 2009, Martinez had never hit more than eight home runs in a season and that came at double-A in 2008 in 352 at-bats. This year in triple-A, he hit eight homers in just 165 at-bats and posted an ISO rate of .261. As well, he had a batting average of .291, which is impressive considering he had a slow start to the year and hit .233/.287/.411 in April.

The negatives in Martinez’ offensive game continue to be his lack of patience (6.4 BB% in 2009) and his lack of stolen bases. He’s considered (incorrectly) by some to be a five-tool talent, but he lacks first-step quickness with his average speed, which means he’ll never be a good base stealer. As well, he’s an OK-but-not-great center-fielder and will likely end up at an outfield corner for the majority of his career.

Despite the negatives in his game, there are more than enough positives to get excited about Martinez’ future with the Mets. Because of his age, there will likely be plenty of growing pains along the way, but he should develop into a 15-20 home run hitter with the ability to hit between .270-.300, especially if he develops a more patient approach at the plate with experience. Expect him to struggle against southpaws early in his career (.236/.308/.391 vs LHP in his minor-league career), which could result in a platoon situation.

The positives definitely out-weigh the negatives with Fernando Martinez.

The Los Angeles Dodgers organization has found itself searching to fill the void left by the suspension of outfielder Manny Ramirez. Veteran Juan Pierre is doing his best to fill those big shoes, but let’s be honest with ourselves. Even if he hits .350 for the rest of the season (And that’s pretty laughable), Pierre is a below-average offensive left-fielder.

The club has turned its attention to outfield prospect Jamie Hoffmann (with two ‘Ns’). Like Pittsburgh’s Nyjer Morgan, Hoffmann was a talented junior hockey player. He turned down the opportunity to play U.S. college hockey for a good program at Colorado College (He was also an eighth-round selection by the Carolina Hurricanes in 2003).

So obviously, we know Hoffmann has some athletic skill despite being signed as a non-drafted amateur free agent out of a Minnesota high school. Hoffmann, 24, is a player that does a little bit of everything well. He lacks that one tool that really makes him stand out, though. He can play all three outfield positions well. He can hit for a respectable average, but he’s not going to hit .300 consistently. Hoffmann is also probably good for 10-15 home runs in a full season, as well as 15-20 stolen bases. His early power display (.500 ISO in four games) at the MLB level is not for real.

He began the 2009 season in double-A but was promoted after hitting .307/.457/.495 in 29 games. After just eight games in triple-A, Hoffmann was called up to the Majors for the first time. In a full year at double-A in 2008, Hoffmann hit .278/.350/.395 with 10 homers and 28 stolen bases in 37 attempts. His plate rates were respectable at 10.2 BB% and 15.3 K%.

In essence, the right-handed hitter is a good complementary player, who will not be a star. That said, he has the potential to grit-out a few above-average MLB seasons if given the opportunity. Hoffmann could also be a good platoon partner with Pierre for the remainder of Manny’s suspension. Pierre is currently hitting .536 against southpaws in a small sample size, but that is not going to continue.

Long-term, Xavier Paul (who was already been called up and subsequently got hurt) is a better prospect, but Hoffmann, as mentioned, is a solid ball player in his own right. The club’s top offensive prospect (and outfielder) Andrew Lambo, 20, is hitting .275/.330/.444 in 43 double-A games.

Cleveland Indians center fielder Grady Sizemore entered the 2009 season perched near the top of any fantasy draft list you could get your eyes on. His talents are obvious: the 26 year-old owns a career .369 wOBA, a .275/.366/.485 line and he swiped in excess of 30 bases in each of the past two seasons. Sizemore looked like a very wise investment, and one with upside to boot as he entered what are typically the peak years for hitters.

Instead, Grady’s wOBA sits at a gruesome .299. After compiling 35.2 Batting Runs in 2008, Sizemore checks in at a minuscule -5.5 in 2009. By either measure, he has been the least productive Indian among batters taking at least 50 PA.

So, is it time to barter Sizemore in hopes of recouping some value on that high draft pick? When you dig a little deeper into Grady’s subpar season, the answer becomes apparent: heck no.

In most respects, Sizemore’s core numbers are in line with his stellar work in previous seasons. His walk rate is 11.1 percent, very near his 11.3% career average, and his Outside-Swing Percentage is 19.4% in 2009 (18.6 career average). His strikeout rate is slightly higher this season (24.9%, compared to a 22.6% career average), but not alarmingly so.

Sizemore is driving the ball a little less this season with a .181 Isolated Power (Slugging% minus BAVG; his career average is .210), but it isn’t as though he has been punchless. He’s still making plenty of hard contact, too, with a 20.8% line drive rate (21% career average). Sizemore isn’t suddenly chopping the ball into the dirt frequently, either, with a 35.4 groundball percentage and a 43.8 flyball percentage (his career marks are 36.7% and 42.3%, respectively).

So, if the 2009 version of Grady so closely resembles the 2004-2008 models, then why is his lumber in the gutter? While he is getting jammed more often than usual (his infield/flyball percentage is 17.5%, compared to a 7.4% career average), the main culprit is a .240 BABIP that’s nearly 80 points below his career average of .319. That’s one of the 15 lowest marks in the majors, and goes a long way toward explaining why he has more closely resembled Carlos Gomez at the dish, instead of the championship-caliber player we have come to know and love.

Sizemore hasn’t been himself on the base paths to this point (7 SB and 6 caught stealings, with a 3.9 Speed Score that’s way below his 7.1 career mark). However, there’s not much to worry about regarding his hitting. Sizemore should commence lashing pitches into the gaps and getting on base at a healthy clip from here on out. If you have weathered the storm to this point, hold steady: Grady’s not playing nearly as bad as his surface stats would indicate.