Matt Holliday’s value was a big question mark coming into the year, as fantasy (and real) owners did not know what to expect from Holliday in the American League.

Many owners freaked out early on when Holliday started the year with a .240 average and only one home run in the first month of the season. Then, for some unknown reason, no one paid attention when he got back to his old self in May. He ended his A’s career after 93 games with a .286/.378/.454 line to go along with 11 homers and 54 RBI. After going back to the NL, Holliday exploded in a Cardinals lineup that also featured Albert Pujols and Ryan Ludwick. Holliday hit 13 home runs and drove in 55 in only 63 games, while posting a line of .353/.419/.604.

Holliday’s swing was a topic of conversation early on, mainly due to his slow start. His numbers tend to back this up, with his line drive rate dropping off from the low 20%’s to the mid teens. He also became more selective at the plate, swinging at less pitches and making contact more often. However, most of the patience at the plate came in Oakland, where they likely lectured him on the value of walking. When he got to St. Louis, he starting hacking again, with his swing% coming in above his career average.

Because of his resurgence as a Cardinal, his value is back where it was before the season began. He will be asking for Mark Teixeira money, and a team or two will likely come close to that in an effort to acquire an impact bat. The big boys in Boston, and both New York teams are going to be heavily involved in this process, with the Mets and Red Sox as the most likely landing points. The Cardinals aren’t just going to let him walk without making an effort, but in the end they may not have the leverage and money to pull it off. If the asking price gets too outrageous, teams will turn their attention to Jason Bay, but Holliday is certainly the first option.

If Holliday ends up in Boston, don’t be afraid of how he will fare in the AL. Fenway is a much better place for him to play than Oakland was, and the talent they can put around him will greatly increase his chances for success in the AL East.

If Holliday leaves St. Louis, Albert Pujols isn’t likely to be too happy, but his numbers probably won’t reflect it. His numbers will still be insane, and he is still a top player going into next year, even without Holliday. Holliday leaving could mean free agent Rick Ankiel could return as the everyday left fielder, but the Cardinals are more likely to look outside for help.

Few young sluggers entered the 2009 season with more fanfare than Cincinnati’s Jay Bruce. The sweet-swinging lefty terrorized minor league pitchers, batting .308/.366/.551 on the farm and reaching the big leagues by age 21.

While understandably rough around the edges, Bruce displayed enormous potential in 2008. He popped 21 homers in 413 AB, with a .199 ISO. While most players his age were trying to crack AA, The Boss was nearly a league-average hitter at the highest level (.328 wOBA).

A quick glance at Bruce’s 2009 numbers leaves fantasy owners feeling a little underwhelmed. After all, Jay batted .223, with his wOBA basically unchanged (.329). He rolled his wrist attempting to make a diving catch in July, suffering a fracture that sidelined him until September.

In all, 2009 would appear to be a lost year for the highly-touted right fielder. However, Bruce actually made a good deal of progress at the plate. Here are several reasons to believe in The Boss heading into 2010:

Age and minor league track record

Bruce, who won’t turn 23 until April, has always been young relative to the levels at which he has played. While he wasn’t the most patient batter in the minors (he walked in 8.4% of his PA), Bruce bashed to the tune of a .243 ISO.

He showed no problems with pitchers of either hand, drubbing lefties for a .290/.352/.522 triple-slash and roping righties for a .318/.376/.574 line. Bruce hasn’t hit southpaws in the major leagues, but 230-some AB by a 21-22 year-old can’t exactly be considered conclusive.

Improved plate discipline

Bruce walked in 7.4% of his PA in 2008, but he improved that mark to 9.9% in 2009. His Outside-Swing Percentage dropped from 30.4% in ’08 to 26% this past season (right around the MLB average). That’s a happy development, considering that opposing pitchers gave Jay fewer offerings over the plate. They tossed him a pitch within the strike zone just 45.7% of the time in 2009 (48.3% in 2008; the MLB average is 49-50%). Bruce saw four pitches per PA in ’09, up from 3.8 P/PA in 2008.

Improved contact rate

The Boss but the bat on the ball 81.3% of the time on pitches within the strike zone in 2008, but bumped that number up to 86.6% in 2009 (88% MLB average). That helped Bruce lower his strikeout rate from 26.6% in ’08 to 21.7% in ’09.

Increased power production

Bruce’s ISO climbed from the aforementioned .199 in 2008 to .246 this past year. He clubbed 22 big flies in 345 AB (15.7 AB/HR), topping 2008’s 19.7 AB/HR pace.

Poor luck

Cincy’s franchise player had a .373 BABIP in the minor leagues, and a .298 major league mark in 2008. In 2009, his BABIP dropped off a cliff (.222). That was the lowest BABIP among batters taking 350+ trips to the plate.

Bruce’s line drive rate was extremely low at 13%, but I’m inclined to believe some of that was due to official scorer’s bias. Line drives don’t “exist” the way that some other events on the diamond do. Someone has to make a subjective judgment, saying, “I think that ball was a liner” or “I think that was a fly ball.”

Bruce had a liner rate exceeding 21% in 2008. This year, he had the second-lowest LD% among hitters with 350+PA. Given the authority with which he hit the ball overall, the low liner rate doesn’t appear to be much of a concern. Expect that BABIP to climb significantly in 2010.

Jay Bruce has all the ingredients to be a superstar. In a “disappointing” year, he showed top-shelf power, improved strike-zone discipline and better contact ability. Fantasy owners aren’t going to get another chance to acquire The Boss with anything less than a premium draft pick. If at all possible, nab Bruce now, before he becomes a perennial first-rounder.

With an eyes-to-ankles strike zone, mammoth power and uncanny contact ability, Vladimir Guerrero has long made a mockery out of the concept of plate discipline.

From Montreal to L.A., Vlad has never seen a pitch he didn’t think he could hammer. And for the most part, he has been right. Guerrero has a career .397 wOBA, ranking 10th among active players with at least 3,000 PA. The Impaler has the 7th-most Park Adjusted Batting Runs among hitters since 2002. And, he has eclipsed the 30 homer mark eight times.

Are those high-slugging times behind Guerrero, though? Over the last three seasons, Vlad’s wOBA has dipped from .393 in 2007, .373 in 2008 and a mortal .343 in 2009. Guerrero turns 35 this February (we think), and he’s not going to garner a king’s ransom his second time through free agency. Is Vlad still a valuable fantasy option, or is Father Time sapping the free-swinger’s strength?

Much like the original Impaler, Guerrero engendered fear in his opponents. “Fear” is a nebulous term in baseball (see any Jim Rice Hall of Fame discussion), but Guerrero was intentionally walked an average of 26 times per season between 2005 and 2007. That figure dipped to 16 in 2008, and just three in 2009.

Given Vlad’s well-known tendency to hack at balls, strikes, fastballs, breaking stuff, low flying birds and hot dog wrappers, the lack of intentional free passes has led to a plummeting walk rate. Guerrero’s BB% has fallen from 11% in ’07 to just 4.7% in ’09.

Want another indication that pitchers are more willing to challenge Guerrero? Take a look at the percentage of pitches thrown to Vlad within the strike zone. As one might expect, pitchers are apt to toss Guerrero a pitch off the plate, considering his expansive strike zone (Vlad has swung at roughly 45% of pitches thrown out of the zone from 2007-2009, compared to the 25% MLB average).

But, those hurlers have thrown him more pitches within the zone recently. Just 32.7% of pitches thrown to Guerrero crossed the plate in 2007. That figure increased to 40.8% in ’08, and 43% this year. That’s still well below the near-50% MLB average, but it’s a noticeable uptick nonetheless.

Guerrero still creamed the ball in ’07 and ’08, with Isolated Power marks of .223 and .218. But extra-base knocks were more scarce this season, with a .164 ISO. Vlad was rarely healthy, serving separate DL stints for a torn pectoral muscle and a left knee strain.

Vlad hit more fly balls in 2009 (near 40%) than in any other season dating back to 2002. But his home run/fly ball rate fell considerably. Guerrero clubbed a homer on 14.5% of his fly balls in 2007 and 16.1% in 2008, but a mild 11.5% in ’09.

In 2009, Guerrero pulled fewer pitches. And while he hit for far more power than the average right-handed A.L. batter on middle-and-opposite-field pitches in ’07 and ’08, that was not the case this past season (numbers courtesy of Baseball-Reference):

Guerrero hit more balls up the middle and to the opposite field, with far less authority than in years past. Was Vlad a little late in catching up with fastballs this year? The numbers suggest that’s the case.

During the course of his career, Guerrero has crushed pitches of all types. It’s really quite remarkable: fastballs (+1.11 runs/100 pitches), sliders (+1.87), cutters (+1.95), curves (+2.78), changeups (+1.95), splitters (+2.93). Heck, he’s even knocked around the knuckleball (+4.85).

In 2009, however, Vlad posted a paltry -0.74 run/100 value against heaters. That was one of the 20 lowest marks among batters with 400+ PA. Guerrero also popped the ball up more often than usual, with a 13.7 infield/fly ball rate (11.2% average since 2002), and he made less contact on pitches within the strike zone (87.1%, 89.1% avg. since ’02).

The cumulative effect of Guerrero’s injuries has robbed him of the ability to play the outfield (he played the OF just two times in ’09). This means that he won’t qualify as an outfielder in most leagues. Just as Vlad will only appeal to A.L. teams this winter, his value will be dinged by only qualifying in a “utility” spot in fantasy leagues.

None of this is to suggest that we should stick a fork in Vlad. He surely was hampered by injuries in 2009, as he batted .290/.319/.415 in the first half but a more palatable .300/.347/.498 after the All-Star break.

The problem is, owners just can’t count on Guerrero ever playing pain-free again. It wouldn’t be totally surprising to see Vlad go DH somewhere and rebound somewhat at the plate. But in all likelihood, his days as an elite slugger are coming to a close.

Last November, the Colorado Rockies shipped franchise cornerstone Matt Holliday to the Oakland A’s for lefty starter Greg Smith, reliever Huston Street and outfielder Carlos Gonzalez.

Smith (sidelined for most of the 2009 season with shoulder problems) was more of a throw-in, a back-of-the-rotation option whose peripherals were uninspiring. Street was certainly a stalwart in the ‘pen this year, with a 2.93 FIP. But the big prize in the deal was Gonzalez. Ultimately, the lefty-hitting Venezuelan would determine whether the deal worked out in Colorado’s favor.

Shortly after the swap, I took a gander at CarGo’s minor league track record and early scuffles in Oakland. The former D-Backs prospect possessed the power-speed combo to be a major component in two blockbuster deals (he was also involved in the December 2007 Dan Haren deal). Yet, he rarely worked the count, and he did benefit from cozy hitting environs in Arizona’s farm system. I came to the following conclusion:

“Gonzalez is headed to the best offensive environment in baseball, but it would be best to take a wait-and-see approach with the 23 year-old. While he has shown a solid amount of power in the minors, he has also posted low walk rates and relatively high strikeout totals. Gonzalez is essentially a lottery ticket for the Rockies and for fantasy owners: if his plate discipline improves to an acceptable level, he could be a star-caliber performer. If not, he might just be a Juan Encarnacion-type with more defensive value.”

One year later, Gonzalez appears to have taken steps toward becoming that championship-caliber player. The obvious caveat here is Coors Field. Humidor or not, the park inflates offense like no other venue in the majors. But even accounting for the Rocky Mountain assist, Gonzalez posted +9.8 Batting Runs in 2009, despite not getting a call-up until June and not really getting everyday AB’s until late in the year.

Opening the season at AAA Colorado Springs, Gonzalez punished the Pacific Coast League for a .339/.418/.630 line in 223 PA. Colorado Springs is also a hitter’s paradise, but Gonzalez beat the seams off the ball for a .292 ISO. Perhaps more importantly, he displayed a more reserved approach at the plate. Gonzalez drew a walk in 10.3% of his PA, while punching out 16.7%.

In Colorado, CarGo did a decent job of mending his hack-tastic ways. Gonzalez walked 9.2 percent of the time, increasing his P/PA seen from 3.4 in 2008 to 3.7 in 2009.

The 24 year-old didn’t suddenly morph into some Helton-like Zen master of plate discipline, but he made progress. Gonzalez jumped at 32.5 percent of pitches thrown outside of the strike zone with the A’s in ’08, but lowered that mark to 30.6 percent with the Rockies (25.1% MLB average).

His first-pitch strike percentage (the rate at which the batter puts the ball in play on the first pitch or gets behind in the count 0-and-1) fell from 60.8% in 2008 to 58% this past year, right around the big league average. When Carlos took a cut at a pitch within the zone, he connected more often. His Z-Contact% rose from 86.7% with the A’s to 89.7% with the Rockies (87.8% MLB average).

With better strike-zone judgment and the best hitting environment in baseball at his disposal, Gonzalez batted .284/.353/.525 in 317 PA, with a .241 ISO. Happily, CarGo also added 16 steals in 20 attempts. The base thievery wasn’t really expected, given his poor 65% success rate in the minors.

It’s too early to say that Gonzalez is on the path to stardom, but he made strides toward becoming a more complete player in 2009. We knew that he could sting the baseball, but it was imperative that he lay off more junk pitches off the plate. He started to do that this year. With a vastly improved bat and stellar defense (+8 UZR/150), Gonzalez was worth 2.3 Wins Above Replacement in part-time duty. In parting with one organizational building block, the Rockies may have acquired another.

In January of 2008, the Chicago White Sox picked up Nick Swisher from the Oakland Athletics in exchange for a prospect bounty including OF Ryan Sweeney, RHP Fautino De Los Santos and LHP Gio Gonzalez.

The Pale Hose figured they had acquired a valuable, young, cost-controlled player. After all, Swisher was just 27 heading into the ’08 season, having averaged nearly three Wins Above Replacement per season during his three big league campaigns. He had turned in back-to-back quality years at the dish, with wOBA’s of .368 in 2006 and .361 in 2007.

In May of 2007, Swish signed a 5-year, $26.75M pact with the A’s which also included a $10.25M club option for the 2012 season. The former Ohio State star looked to be a mainstay on the South Side, given the team-friendly nature of that deal.

Well, that was the plan, anyway. Just ten months later, the White Sox booted Swisher out of town. The switch-hitter posted an exasperating .325 wOBA in Chicago, losing playing time in August and September to Dewayne Wise(!) In November of ’08, the Sox unloaded Swisher on the Yankees (along with RHP Kanekoa Teixeira) for an underwhelming package of RHP’s Jeff Marquez and Jhonny Nunez as well as utility man Wilson Betemit.

So, what exactly changed for Swisher between his Oakland and Chicago days? Not much. Last December, former RotoGraphs scribe Peter Bendix noted:

“In other words, Swisher’s 2008 season, once adjusted for the bad luck he incurred, was exactly in line with his previous seasons. There’s no reason to think that his inherent ability to hit the ball changed much, as evidenced by his stable strikeout, walk, and line-drive rates; therefore, we have every reason to expect Swisher to improve in 2009, thanks to regression to the mean.”

Very little changed in Swisher’s plate discipline or batted ball profile between 2007 and 2008:

2007

15.6 BB%, 24.3 K%, 17.5 LD%, 0.81 GB/FB, 9.5 IF/FB%, 16.6 O-Swing%, 85.8 Z-Contact%

2008

14.2 BB%, 27.2 K%, 20.9 LD%, 0.78 GB/FB, 11.1 IF/FB%, 18.9 O-Swing%, 86.2 Z-Contact%

There are slight changes, but certainly nothing earth-shattering. Yet, Swisher’s BABIP plummeted from .308 in ’07 to .251 in ’08. According to this expected BABIP tool from The Hardball Times (based off research done by Chris Dutton and Bendix), Nick was terribly unlucky.

Swisher’s rate of HR’s, K’s SB’s, line drives, fly balls, pop ups and grounders suggested that his BABIP should have been closer to the .300 range in 2008. That would obviously change his line dramatically. Even if those extra hits were all singles, Swisher’s triple-slash would rise from a mild .219/.332/.410 to .268/.381/.459.

With the Bronx Bombers in 2009, Swisher mashed to the tune of .249/.371/.498 in 607 PA, good for a career-best .375 wOBA. His BABIP did not return to the .300 range (he finished at .277), but that BABIP rebound and a boost in power (.249 ISO) made Swisher one of the best off-season pickups.

His patience and pop, coupled with average D, produced a 3.7 WAR season. Swisher is never going to have a shiny batting average, but his stout secondary skills (walks and power) make him an underrated contributor.

It’s not very often that one can say this about a Yankees acquisition, but swindling Swisher from the White Sox last fall was a thrifty move. New York bought low on a quality player, parting only with a future 5th starter, a decent relief prospect and a reserve infielder with platoon issues and no defensive home.

Swish made just $5.3M this year, while providing $16.5M worth of value. He’s under contract for a total of $15.75M over the 2010-2011 seasons. Even if he regresses back to the three WAR range, he would give $27M worth of production over that time period.

If you’re keeping score at home, that would mean Swisher offers the Yankees about $22.5M worth of surplus value from 2009-2011 (what his production is worth on the free agent market based on the $4.5M/WAR standard, minus his actual salary). And, he also has that reasonable option for the 2012 season.

During an off-season in which the Yankees spent more than the gross domestic product of Tonga (no, seriously), the club also added Swisher for a song. This is a great example of why it’s vital to not just take a cursory glance at a player’s numbers and come to a definite conclusion about his talents. Fantasy owners who did their homework picked up an offensive cog without coughing up a high draft pick.

On July 1st, the following scrolled across the transaction wire:

Pittsburgh Pirates purchased the contract of outfielder Garrett Jones from Indianapolis of the International League (AAA).

Few, if any, in the baseball community so much as batted an eye. After all, Jones was a 28 year-old minor league slugger, a guy on the low end of the defensive spectrum who drifted through the Atlanta and Minnesota systems without distinguishing himself. He was a warm body for a team in transition.

As the 2009 season comes to a close, however, Jones has certainly caught the attention of Pirates fans looking to divert their attention from the whole…”longest consecutive losing season streak in professional sports” thing. Splitting time between the outfield corners and first base, Mr. Jones has crushed the horsehide to the tune of .297/.374/.581 in 345 plate appearances.

In his first extended look in the majors, Garrett has walked in 11.4 percent of his PA, with a mammoth .284 Isolated Power. Among batters with at least 300 trips to the plate, Jones places 7th in ISO. His whopping .402 wOBA puts him between Mark Teixeira and Manny Ramirez. He has even swiped 10 bags in 12 tries.

Jones has jolted fastballs like few others, with a run value of +2.26 per 100 pitches seen. That’s 10th among big league batters. The 6-4, 235 pound lefty batter actually has a positive value against all pitches seen on a regular basis: +0.19 vs. sliders, +1.23 vs. curveballs and +1.63 vs. changeups.

So, Jones has been a beast this summer. But the question is, where in the name of Shane Spencer did this outburst come from?

A 14th-round pick by the Braves in the 1999 amateur draft, Jones had a completely nondescript minor league track record entering this season. He spent three years in Rookie Ball, slugging .330. A-Ball went little better, with Jones posting OPS figures well under .700.

Garrett finally hit with authority in AA as a 23-year old in 2004 (.311/.356/.593), but any prospect momentum screeched to a halt with a lousy .244/.297/.445 line at AAA the following season. Jones spent five seasons at the AAA level, and none of them translated well to the highest level:

(major league equivalencies from Minor League Splits)

2005
Actual:.244/.297/.445
MLE: .213/.253/.376

2006
Actual: .238/.302/.430
MLE: .211/.265/.366

2007
Actual: .280/.334/.473
MLE: .242/.286/.395

2008
Actual: .279/.337/.484
MLE: .245/.291/.412

2009
Actual: .307/.348/.502
MLE:. 259/.291/.408

Despite spending half of a decade in AAA, Jones never dominated the level. His best work came recently, but those equivalencies basically painted him as Mike Jacobs circa 2009. Unless you’re Dayton Moore, that’s not very appealing.

Jones’ 2009 projections from CHONE, Oliver and ZiPS were similarly lukewarm:

CHONE: .259/.318/.451
Oliver: .242/.324/.398
ZiPS: .254/.304/.427

Where does Garret go from here? Because of his thunderous performance since his call-up, Jones is almost assured to enter the 2010 season with a clear shot at playing time. There’s little doubt that he won’t sustain this level of play. We have three months of out-of-this-world hitting, weighed against a decade’s worth of mundane numbers.

Fantasy owners would be best served by remaining skeptical. Not that Jones should be ignored, but his work this past summer eclipses his previous track record by a shocking margin. The best-case scenario would probably entail Jones retaining some of the gains he made in terms of working the count, while popping a healthy number of extra-base hits.

Given his larger body of work, the odds aren’t very good that Mr. Jones is gonna be a big star. But the Pirates would settle for a cheap, decent bat who can shift between first and the outfield corners.

Since the Tampa Bay (then Devil) Rays selected him with the second overall pick in the 2002 amateur draft, B.J. Upton has displayed every ingredient necessary to become a five-tool superstar at the major league level.

The 25 year-old has shown excellent plate discipline (12.1 BB% in 2007, 15.4% in 2008). Upton has unleashed feats of strength that belie his lithe 6-3, 185 pound frame, including 24 home runs in 2007 and a 2008 post season (7 HR, .652 SLG%) that appeared to solidify his status as a star. He swiped in excess of 40 bases in 2008, and has a chance at doing so again this season. You name a skill, and B.J. has shown it at one point or another.

Defensively, Upton has acclimated himself very well to center field (11.2 UZR/150 in ’09, nearly identical to his work in ’08). That range has helped keep him a viable starter (1.9 WAR). But why is it that, as the 2009 season comes to a close, B.J. has been one of the worst hitters in baseball?

In 2007 and 2008, Upton posted wOBA’s of .387 and .354, respectively. This year, that mark has plummeted to just .298. Among batters taking at least 500 trips to the plate, Upton has the fourth-worst wOBA in the game. Only light-swinging middle infielders Edgar Renteria, David Eckstein and Orlando Cabrera have provided less value with the lumber. Per Batting Runs (a park-adjusted measure of offensive production), Upton has gone from +27.2 runs above average in 2007 and +15.3 in ’08 to a wheezing -13.2 in 2009.

While he won’t be confused with Jeff Francoeur any time soon, Upton has been less patient at the plate. His walk rate has dipped to nine percent, down considerably from the aforementioned marks in ’07 and ’08.

Upton swung at roughly 17 percent of pitches thrown outside of the strike zone between 2007 and 2008. That figure is up a bit, to slightly over 19 percent this season (still well below the 25% MLB average). Upton is also offering at fewer pitches within the strike zone as well, taking a cut at roughly 66 percent of in-zone offerings from 2007-2008 and about 64 percent in 2009 (66% MLB average). There’s nothing overly alarming about these trends, but chasing more balls and taking more strikes is never a happy development.

From a batted-ball standpoint, Upton’s rate of line drives hit is down considerably. It’s important to keep in mind that the line drive/fly ball distinction is a subjective one made by the official scorer (and the rate at which liners are coded varies greatly by stadium). That being said, B.J.’s liner rate has fallen from over 19 percent from 2007-2008 to 14.1 percent in 2009. Again using a 500 PA cut off, Upton has the lowest LD% among all batters.

Where have those liners gone? Upton has greatly increased his rate of fly balls hit. B.J. hit a fly ball 37.6% of the time in 2007 and 30.6% in 2008, but that figure is up to 41.2% this year. While fly balls have a lower batting average on balls in play than grounders, lofting the ball into the air is obviously a positive trend in terms of hitting for power (fly balls hit in the A.L. in 2009 have a .603 slugging percentage).

Well, hitting more fly balls is usually a positive trend. Upton just hasn’t done much with those fly balls this season. His home run/fly ball rate, 19.8% in ’07 and 7.4% in ’08, is just 6.7% in 2009. That puts B.J. in the same company as Andy LaRoche and Vernon Wells. Upton slugged .952 on fly balls hit in 2007 and .534 in 2008. In 2009? He’s slugging just .396.

When Upton has taken a pitcher deep, he’s not clearing the fence by much, either. Courtesy of Greg Rybarczyk’s Hit Tracker Online, we can see that B.J.’s homers don’t pack as much punch.

Hit Tracker records, among other things, the “Standard Distance” of a home run. This essentially tells us how far the ball would have traveled if it had been hit with no wind, at a 70 degree temperature and at sea level. By factoring out wind, temperature and altitude, Standard Distance attempts to put HR distance on equal footing across stadiums. Here are Upton’s Standard Distances over the past three years:

2007: 394.7
2008: 406.7
2009: 387.5

(The A.L. average Standard Distance in 2009 is 394.7)

In terms of pitch selection, B.J. has scuffled against every type except curveballs. Upton has never had much problem with yellow hammers (+1.18 runs/100 pitches in 2009, +1.15 career). Sliders continue to stifle him, however (-1.8 runs/100 in ’09, -0.67 career). And, his performance versus changeups has taken several steps back (-0.92 runs/100, +0.82 career). Upton’s fall against fastballs has been quite dramatic:

Runs/100 value vs. fastballs, 2007-2009

2007: +1.87
2008: +0.02
2009: -0.24

Overall, Upton has been somewhat unlucky this season. Using this expected BABIP tool from The Hardball Times (which takes a hitter’s AB’s, HR, K’s, SB, LD%, fly balls, pop ups and grounders to give a more accurate measure of XBABIP), B.J.’s XBABIP is .331, compared to his actual .304 mark. Even if all of those extra hits were singles, that would bring his line up from .231/.301/.359 to .258/.328/.386.

Still, that’s a far cry from what many had predicted, myself included. I’m left wondering if Upton has ever been truly healthy in 2009. He was hampered by a sore ankle earlier this month. And, more importantly, Upton openly admits that the off-season shoulder surgery which sidelined him in spring training and early April remains an issue.

Upton’s 2009 campaign has surely been a bitter pill to swallow for owners who expended a high draft pick on him. However, it’s not time to abandon ship. Despite the aggravating season, B.J. is just 25 years old and has already achieved a high degree of success in the big leagues. Given an off-season to mend his aching body, Upton could be a relative bargain in 2010. It would be a shame if such a talent continued to be held back by physical ailments.

As keeper league decisions loom, many fantasy managers are looking at certain struggling young stars and wondering where all the buzz went. No young star has had a more tortured young history then B.J. Upton (né Melvin Emanuel Bossman Junior Upton). What can we expect from a young man that has shown flashes of great potential and long stretches of mediocrity? Does he, in the Ron Shandler vein, “own” the power and the speed because he’s shown both in the past? Or will he be more one-dimensional as his career evens out?

His power has oscillated incredibly. Here are his full year slugging percentages, starting with his first year in the minor leagues: .431 (’03 minors), .505 (’04 minors), .490 (’05 minors), .394 (06 minors), .291 (’06 majors), .508 (’07 majors), .401 (’08 majors), .364 (’09 majors). Quite the dilemma. It’s tempting to call 2007 his fluke year, but then there’s the question of the 2008 playoffs, and his 2004-2005 run in the minor leagues. He has shown good power multiple times in the past.

Examining 2007 further, we find that he had a HR/FB number that year (19.8%) that was way out of line with his career percentage (10.4%). This year, despite a career high in fly ball percentage (41.4%, well above his 34.7% career percentage), he’s sporting his second-lowest slugging percentage and has only muscled nine balls out of the yard despite being healthy for a good part of the year.

An obvious flaw in the older Upton’s game is his ability to hit line drives. His career line drive percentage is poor (17.5%), and this year’s number is third-worst among qualifiers this year. In 2007, he owned a career-high in that category (19.8%), and looking over his minor league career, we can see that the low line-drive rate is a definite part of his game.

What we are left with is a player that has some exciting tools (speed, and the ability to get on base (11.6% walk rate career)) and some real flaws (low line drive rate, high strikeout rate (28.2% career)). This gives us a player that despite a good BABIP (.348 career, most probably built on his speed) has a poor batting average (.266 career).

Looking for a comparable player is not easy, but one name comes to mind. Hunter Pence is a year older, and his power has not varied as greatly as Upton’s. Pence does also package a low line drive percentage (15.8% career) with good speed (5.2 speed score, .325 BABIP) and some power. On the other hand, his HR/FB stayed steady throughout his short career at a higher level than Upton’s has. What we can learn from Pence, possibly, is that Upton’s ceiling may not be defined by his best year. 2007 was a great year for both players, and both players will probably never again show the pristine batting averages they sported that year.

As for the Bossman’s power, we are left guessing. It’s never a good sign when a player has such extreme power spikes. Consider that he had more home runs in 2007 (24) than he’s had in the other 1,548 non-2007 plate appearances (23). Power is his shakiest tool, and depending on it returning in the future is not recommended.

The outfield in Colorado is a little bit of a Crowded House, and at least one good player is probably wondering why the team is being “Mean to Me.” Brad Hawpe, despite his lack of any defensive skill whatsoever, is a rock in more than one sense of the word. He plays every day that he can, and should because he’s an important contributor on offense. The rest of the outfield? Not as easy to call.

In a way, it’s surprising that the team did not trade Ryan Spilborghs at the deadline because the 30-year-old is probably fifth on the outfield depth chart in Colorado. With a .351 career wOBA and passable defense even in center field (-2.1 UZR), he could fill a more important role on another team. He’s obviously the odd man out on a team that has needs elsewhere and is competing hard for the wild card.

There is some exciting play coming from the guys ahead of Spilborghs the depth chart. One thing seems obvious. Dexter Fowler has a lock on center field for the foreseeable future, and all of his flaws have simple corrections that seem to be in his reach. His defense has not been great as measured by UZR (-16.8 UZR/150), but most of that comes from a lack of range (-10.4 Range Runs), and a guy with a 7.5 speed score should seemingly post a better range soon. He also showed better range in the minors.

The other flaw is his strikeout rate, which is keeping him from entering elite status. Again, he had a strikeout rate closer to 20% in the minors than his 27.9% in the majors. Players often post higher strikeout rates in the majors, so perhaps this flaw will stay with Fowler his whole career. His strikeout rate has spiked in the minors before, though, and returned to normal so here’s a bet that it’s just Fowler learning the ropes and that he’ll be a .300-hitting average-fielding center fielder with power and speed before long.

But this was supposed to be a referendum on left field. Carlos Gonzalez, though boasting better defensive stats in center field (10.1 UZR/150) than Fowler, seems to be the team’s second option there. Instead, he’s battling it out with Seth Smith in left field, and they seemed to be mired in a bit of a strict platoon. With Smith’s career .764 OPS against lefties, he’s probably best served by sitting out against southpaws. Then again, Gonzalez is also a lefty, so this isn’t the perfect platoon.

Should Gonzalez be getting more playing time? He’s had 37 August at-bats to Smith’s 34, and he’s outperforming him in this small sample (1.093 OPS to Smith’s .697). Gonzalez has had a wildly oscillating strikeout rate in his minor league career (14.3% to 25.8%), but his major league strikeout rate has been stable at a high 26.6% level. The biggest change this year has been that CarGo has found his power again (.203 ISO) and also upped his walk rate to his minor league rate (8.9% this year, 7.5% in the minors). Added to a 4-component speed score (7.8) that would rank fourth in the league if he played more, and there’s an exciting picture being painted here.

With his recent play, CarGo’s physical tools seem to be winning out over Smiths’ slow and steady approach. Smith has a good idea of what he’s doing at the plate, with a high walk rate (12.5% career), low strikeout rate (18.7% career), nice power (.184 ISO career), and a good line drive rate (20.3%). He’s cut down on reaching for balls off the plate (18.6% this year, 21.9% career) and shown good advancement as a hitter. Other than a slow half-month, there’s not much to dislike about Smith. He’s even a plus defender in left field.

Because this is a team that’s still in it, it’s hard to handicap the playing time going forward this year. They’ll probably play the ‘hot hand,’ which means that CarGo has the short-term advantage. Long-term, though, all four (and possibly five) of these outfielders deserve major league jobs. A trade is the Rockies’ future, and probably should have been in their immediate past.

It seems as though outfielder Lastings Milledge has been around forever, doesn’t it? Despite just turning 24 in April, the intriguing yet infuriating Milledge is now on his third major league club.

The 12th overall selection in the 2003 amateur draft, Milledge was once the darling of the New York Mets system. A fantastic athlete with a pretty good idea of what he was doing at the dish, Milledge also possessed more power than his 6-0, 190 pound frame suggested. He quickly climbed up the prospect ranks, as Baseball America dubbed him the best talent in the Mets system in 2005 and 2006.

By the time the ’06 season rolled around, Milledge was a 21 year-old posting an outstanding .277/.388/.440 line at AAA Norfolk. Sure, his base stealing efficiency needed a ton of work (13 swiped in 23 attempts), but it’s difficult to complain about a center fielder with a good eye (12.3 BB%) and doubles power (.163 ISO). Milledge’s first foray into the majors later that season was not a smashing success (.241/.310/.380 in 185 PA) and apparently veteran players weren’t lining up to be his friend, but Lastings looked like a fixture in Queens.

Milledge made the Mets out of spring training in 2007, but soon found himself back in Norfolk. He suffered a foot injury and got caught up in the ceaseless New York tabloids for a rap song he appeared in, but he did take 206 trips to the plate for the big league club. All things considered, Milledge’s success was promising. His control of the strike zone wasn’t superb (6.6 BB%, 22.9 K%), but he hit .272/.341/.446, good for a .174 ISO in his age-22 season.

However, Milledge fell out of favor with the Mets, and the Amazin’s shipped their former prized pupil to the Nationals in November of ’07 for a seemingly underwhelming package of catcher Brian Schneider and outfielder Ryan Church. The move looked like a steal for the Nats, who acquired a young, up-the-middle talent for a light-hitting backstop and a platoon-type outfielder.

Milledge got his first chance at everyday playing time in the bigs in 2008, taking 587 plate appearances in Washington. While his .268/.330/.402 line wasn’t bad, it also wasn’t the sort of progress that one would hope for from such a highly-touted player.

That keen plate discipline exhibited at Norfolk failed to manifest, as Milledge walked just 6.8% of the time. Lastings offered at 31.7% of pitches thrown outside of the strike zone (well above the 25% MLB average) and put himself behind in the count often. Milledge’s First-Pitch Strike% was 61.2%, compared to the 58.6% big league average.

He didn’t put a charge into the ball (.134 ISO), while also suggesting that the whole center field thing? It wasn’t gonna work out (Lastings’ UZR/150 in the middle garden was an abysmal -20.1). While it’s likely that he’s not that bad out there, it’s not like Milledge’s minor league work in center offered great promise of a turnaround.

While he opened the season with Washington in 2009, Milledge soon found himself back in AAA after a poor start. He suffered a broken finger that required surgery, then was shipped to Pittsburgh along with Joel Hanrahan for UZR demi-god Nyjer Morgan and lefty reliever Sean “the Pirates are a joke, thank god I’m with the Nats now” Burnett.

Lastings’ digit is now healed, and he was recently recalled by the Bucs to take over the everyday left field spot. Milledge’s acquisition has often been hailed as a great buy-low opportunity for Pittsburgh, as the team was said to surrender “only” a fourth outfielder in Morgan. That claim likely sells Mr. Morgan short- his decent bat and superb range make him a perfectly acceptable regular– but the Pirates did attempt to sell high on Nyjer while shooting for the stars with Milledge.

With Milledge not projecting to be the asset once imagined in the field or on the base paths (his career stolen base percentage in the minors is 68.7%, and 67.4% in the majors), he will need to recapture that strike-zone judgment that seemingly skipped town when he left the Mets organization. He’s a below-average fielder playing a corner spot, where the cumulative line is .266/.341/.434. Can Milledge meet that standard? Most pre-season projections concluded that he would be in the ball park:

CHONE: .279/.350/.435
Oliver: .271/.333/.429
ZiPS: .280/.343/.452

Milledge is not a lost cause by any means, but he’s far from the sure-fire asset that he projected to be just a few short years ago. Lastings will need to make some lasting changes in his plate approach if he wishes to shed the bust label in the ‘Burgh.