Carlos Quentin crushed the ball during his first season with the White Sox, batting .288/.394/.571 with a .414 wOBA in 2008. Though The Cell is a power-friendly venue (increasing runs by nine percent and homers by 25 percent from 2007-2009, per the Bill James Handbook), Quentin’s wRC+ was still stellar at 154.

Since then, Quentin has stumbled. Over the 2009-2010 seasons, the former Diamondbacks prospect has a .331 wOBA. His park-and-league-adjusted wOBA is one percent worse than the league average (99 wRC+). Considering his stationary defense, he has been a serious drag on Chicago’s playoff chances — he was worth -0.4 Wins Above Replacement in 2009, and has already racked up a full win below what one would expect from a freely available Triple-A talent in 2010.

Injuries have been a serious problem throughout his career. Prior to reaching the South Side in exchange for DH/1B/OF/3B/? Chris Carter in December of 2007, the Stanford product’s pro debut was delayed by Tommy John surgery in 2003, and he suffered a left shoulder injury that required surgery in ’07. Quentin fractured his right wrist in early September of 2008 after slamming his bat in frustration, and he missed a sizeable chunk of the 2009 season with Plantar Fasciitis in his left foot. A tight hamstring bothered him in late April and early May of this year.

A banged-up Quentin isn’t hitting with the same authority. His ISO was .283 in ’08, .219 last season and .190 in 2010. Not surprisingly, his performance when pulling the ball has taken a big hit, as have his numbers when hitting the ball up the middle:

An otherworldly pull and mid-field hitter in 2008, Quentin has been decidedly below-average since. As is the case with most batters, nothing much happens when Quentin hits to the opposite field. And he’s hitting to the right side more than ever in 2010: 28.3 percent, compared to 17.8% in 2009 and 22.6% in 2008.

It’s true that Quentin had a .221 BABIP in ’09 and currently has a .199 BABIP in 2010, fourth-worst among qualified batters. But his career BABIP in the majors is .248, and his rest-of-season ZiPS projection has a .257 BABIP. The odds of Quentin continuing to post a sub-.200 BABIP are very slim, but there are several reasons why he gets fewer hits on balls put in play than most:

He hits few line drives

Line drives hit in the American League this season have a .726 BABIP — they fall for hits far more than any other batted ball type. While line drive rate isn’t the most stable metric from year-to-year, Quentin has a career 15.8 LD%. His LD% over the past three seasons (15.7) is one of the twenty lowest marks among MLB hitters with at least 500 plate appearances.

He pops the ball up often

Quentin has a 15.1 infield/fly ball percentage in 2010, and his career rate is 12.5%. Pop ups are the closest thing to a gimme out on a ball in play, and he hits far more than most batters. The average IF/FB% is between seven and eight percent.

He’s slow

Along with line drive rate, batter’s eye and pitches seen per PA, Speed Score is one of the variables that has a positive effect on BABIP. With an aching foot, the 6-1, 230 pound Quentin has become increasingly sluggish — his Speed Score was 4.0 in ’08, 3.1 in ’09 and is 2.1 this season (the MLB average is five).

While Quentin’s monstrous 2008 season was probably at the upper bounds of what anyone could have expected from him, his work over the 2009-2010 seasons has undeniably been disappointing. Many owners have cut ties — the 27-year-old’s Yahoo ownership rate is down to 47 percent. Quentin can’t seem to stay healthy, and his power numbers have declined. He’s worth a flyer if available, but that ’08 production doesn’t appear to be coming back any time soon.

Injury info from the Baseball Injury Tool.

San Francisco Giants purchased the contract of OF Pat Burrell from Triple-A Fresno; optioned OF John Bowker to Fresno.

“The Bat” ‘s lumber has flat lined since he inked a two-year, $16 million deal with Tampa Bay prior to the 2009 season. Burrell posted a combined .381 wOBA from 2006-2008, but he plummeted to a .304 wOBA as the Rays’ DH last season, battling a neck injury that forced him to the DL for a month.

Before drawing his release from Tampa in late May, the 33-year-old posted a .284 wOBA. San Francisco scooped him up on a minor league deal, and after a tune-up at Fresno, Burrell’s back in the big leagues. However, his utility to the Giants (not to mention his path to playing time) is unclear.

After routinely putting up Isolated Power marks in the .200-.250 range as a Phillie, Burrell had a .146 ISO in ’09 and has a .136 ISO in 2010. He has scuffled against fastballs and sliders over the past two years — he was -0.62 runs/100 against heaters in ’09, and is at -2.03 runs/100 when pitchers challenge him in 2010. Against sliders, he was -1.1 runs/100 last season and -3.37/100 this year. Burrell’s line drive rate, 20.7% for his career, was 18.1% last season and 16.7% in 2010. Those numbers portray a hitter having difficulty catching up to high-speed stuff in the majors, making less and less hard contact.

Coming into the season, CHONE projected Burrell for a .329 wOBA. ZiPS’ rest-of-season projection forecasts a .339 wOBA. Considering Burrell’s plodding D, it’s hard to say what he offers San Francisco that, say, Nate Schierholtz (.339 rest-of-season ZiPS projection, and a quality fielder) or Bowker (.332 ROS ZiPS) don’t. Granted, Bowker’s mashing and newfound patience at Fresno in ’09 (.342/.451/.596, 16.4 BB%) didn’t translate to the majors this season, but is he really a worse bet than Burrell going forward?

With Buster Posey now in the fold, San Fran has added another defensively-challenged player to the outfield mix in Aubrey Huff. Andres Torres is drawing every day play, and Aaron Rowand, despite replacement-level performance to this point, will likely keep his job. That leaves Burrell as a glorified fifth outfielder, drawing the occasional start against a lefty.

The first pick in the ’98 draft has enjoyed plenty of outstanding years at the plate. But when the skill for which you’re nicknamed vanishes, and your D draws groans, it’s a pretty quick path to retirement.

That’s the sound of the final nail in the coffin for the Cleveland Indian’s 2010 season. Already 11 games out of first and languishing at .365, the Indians lost star centerfielder Grady Sizemore for the season today. His knee surgery turned into microfracture surgery, and his early prognosis is for a six-to-nine month recovery period. It’s a tough ‘break’ for a franchise that can’t seem to buy good luck these days.

Dark humor aside, microfracture surgeries are no laughing matter. Ask Tracy McGrady and Chris Webber how their recovery went and you’ll get some nervous laughter and an evasive answer. The silver lining in this story is that Sizemore is still young (27) and he doesn’t have to jump thirty inches up and down on those knees on every other play in his sport. In fact, the combination of those two facts allows for at least some optimism in Cleveland. At least the problem was discovered, and sorted to the best of the surgeon’s abilities. Let’s leave it to the doctors report on his recovery.

Hopefully the injury can be blamed for his poor play this year and last, though his declining ISO is somewhat worrisome. Was his knee hurting in 2009? Did he just peak early in 2008? Will he ever regain that 30/30 form? In real baseball, the Indians may take the 2009 vintage and be happy with it. 112 wRC+ center fielders with plus defense don’t grow on trees. And truly, even fantasy owners should be happy if he comes back and plays to 2009’s level, but they won’t pay early-round prices for that production until he proves the power and speed are back. Still, he makes for an intriguing late-round pick in 2011 because of his immense upside, and certainly keeper league owners should not sell low.

So now what? The Indians will slog through the season and see what else the farm system has to offer at the center field position. Trevor Crowe will get continue to get first dibs on the interim position, and before long Micheal Brantley will get the call. In some ways, this may help the organizational health of the Indians by giving two players that have finished their minor league apprenticeships the chance to play every day in the major leagues. Perhaps they prove they can play every day and allow Cleveland to trade them for value elsewhere. Perhaps one of them proves that they can be a valuable fourth outfielder. Either way, they get a shot.

Crowe’s .276/.362/.391 minor league line doesn’t offer a ton of hope for an above-average regular, but his .813 OPS versus lefties could make him a good fourth outfielder or platoon option. His defense in center was around scratch in the minors according to Total Zone, and a scratch-defensive centerfielder that can hit lefties is not dog meat. At the major league level, he just needs to show he can walk like he did in the minors – his 5.5% walk rate to date is not cutting it.

Brantley is playing decently in the minor leagues currently (.306/.386/.373), but, like Crowe, doesn’t have Sizemore’s above-average (or better) power. For his career, he’s played better against righties (.301/.390/.372), so we may have the beginnings of a center field platoon once he’s called up. According to Total Zone, though, his defense has ranged from exceptional at centerfield (+16 in 2009) to abysmal (-21 in 2009). The book is still open on his ability to play the position at all, and it’s important because he doesn’t own any power to speak of.

Fantasy owners are left crying in their adult sodas at their neighborhood establishment. A 30/30 player will not be on the wire at this point, and they may have no solace for teams built on Sizemore’s speedy legs and powerful bat. If they are looking for help from the Cleveland team, Brantley may be the one to pick up, if only because he plays better against right handers and there are more of them.

It’s now summer by the American social clock (if not by the solstice calendar), and so you should be furiously checking your wire for injury replacements. It’s even time to start considering if a struggling player is ready to be dropped. We’re here to help.

Brett Myers, Astros (10% owned)
Myers is a flawed pitcher. He may never again reach the strikeout-per-inning numbers of his early career, and he’s lost some velocity off of those days as well. The good news is that the fastball was never his best pitch – in fact, it’s never even been a good pitch (-89.6 runs career, and never once positive by linear weights). He’s still got his nice curveball and slider, and he’s actually snapping that slider at a career pace (32% this year, 9.6% career). This will count as good news because not only is the pitch his best this year (+6.6 runs), but it’s also been his best non-curveball pitch in his career. If this ‘new’ Myers can stay healthy, he seems likely to continue to pitch to the talent level indicated by his 3.89 FIP. Flawed, but helpful in deep leagues. When his .324 BABIP comes down a little bit, his poor WHIP might even improve.

Cliff Pennington, Athletics (11% owned)
Here’s another flawed player for your pleasure. In fact, it’s possible he’s over-owned for a shortstop with an underwhelming .209/.291/.322 line. Of course, his BABIP is .245 and should rise, especially since he’s relatively fleet of foot (5.6 career speed score, six stolen bases this year). In other good news, his contact rates are all up across the board, and his zone contact rate (93.4%) is actually okay. His good line drive rate (21.4%) suggests that he may even be able to better his ZiPs RoS (.250/.324/.348) and break 20 steals overall. If someone in your AL-only league dropped him, he can give you a little something from here on out. Just a little.

Jerry Hairston Jr, Padres (5% owned)
Boy, hit one grand slam and suddenly you’re on waiver lists, eh? Of all the numbers that we may cite about Hairston, however, there is one that is the most important once you get into deep enough leagues: seven. As in, Hairston has started seven straight games for the Padres. This, despite Everth Cabrera’s return from the disabled list. Hairston’s defense is scratch at best (-7.9 UZR/150 in 109 career games at the position), but right now his offense is perculating (10 for his last 26) and the team is winning. And anyway, it’s not like Cabrera was a whiz with the glove anyway (-11 UZR/150 in 127 games at the position). The Padres might best be served being honest about the talent level on their team, and going with the guy that could provide more value for longer in Cabrera, but that’s an argument for another space.

All ownership numbers courtesy of Yahoo Fantasy Sports

Time to update the outfielders! Commenters from last week might be happy to see that a certain someone wearing White Sox has dropped into OF2 territory. The offending OF1 rankings can be seen here.

Worst of the Best?
1. Manny Ramirez, Los Angeles (.377 wOBA, .409 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
2. Alfonso Soriano, Chicago (.427 wOBA, .371 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
3. Torii Hunter, Los Angeles (.356 wOBA, .366 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
4. Jason Heyward, Atlanta (.424 wOBA, .361 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
5. Bobby Abreu, Los Angeles (.348 wOBA, .360 ZiPs RoS wOBA)

Alex Rios and Carlos Gonzalez join the OF1s next time around, although I just remain skeptical of Rios and think Go CarGo could benefit from a few less swings. The first tier here consists mostly of uninspiring veterans that just don’t have the upside to really be solid OF1s, and then the king of Upside himself, Jason Heyward. Many will question why he isn’t on the OF1 list, but he’s in barely-charted water for a 20 year old, as David Cameron showed this week. If the strikeout rate continues to fall – showing his ability to adjust – he’ll be on the first list soon enough.

If You Squint Just Right They Could Still be an OF1, I Promise
6. Adam Dunn, Washington (.392 wOBA, .394 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
7. Adam Lind, Toronto (.300 wOBA, .349 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
8. Carlos Quentin, Chicago (.305 wOBA, .352 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
9. Carlos Lee, Houston (.243 wOBA, .351 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
10. Colby Rasmus, St. Louis (.375 wOBA, .341 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
11. B.J. Upton, Tampa Bay (.301 wOBA, .334 ZiPs Ros wOBA)

The first half of this tier includes a lot of veterans that were borderline OF1s going into the season. Well, perhaps Dunn has always had the scarlet letter of his batting average to hold him down, and maybe we should have seen Quentin’s low-batting average ways as his true talent level. His line drive rate does not mean we should expect a huge BABIP-fueled bounceback, as talented as he has seemed at times. Lee is heating up, and Rasmus is cooling down, but Lee may end up with the better batting average given their respective long-term histories.

Upside to be Solid OF2s
12. Shane Victorino, Philadelphia (.343 wOBA, .354 ZiPs RoS)
13. Denard Span, Minnesota (.357 wOBA, .344 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
14. Austin Jackson, Detroit (.378 wOBA, .308 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
15. Marlon Byrd, Chicago (.380 wOBA, .360 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
16. Vernon Wells, Toronto (.398 wOBA, .346 ZiPs RoS wOBA)

Span’s not a bad player and is probably a solid OF2 right now, but a .300 hitter with no power and 30 steals is pretty vanilla. It doesn’t look like it will get any better. A-Jax has cut his strikeout rate from 32.3% in April to 24.4% this month and has settled in with a .302/.348/.395 May after his squeaky clean April. That’s an improvement, but it doesn’t mean he’s not a risk to put up a mediocre batting average going forward. Byrd’s still not walking at all (3.2%) but his ISO survived the move. Adam Jones should take notice, cut his strikeout rate, and up his power to join the party. Wells would be more attractive if it wasn’t likely that we’ve already seen about half of his 2010 home run output already.

Upside to Join the Top
17. Franklin Gutierrez, Mariners (.374 wOBA, .333 ZiPs wOBA)
18. Jay Bruce, Cincinnati (.361 wOBA, .343 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
19. Adam Jones, Baltimore (.290 wOBA, .345 ZiPs RoS wOBA)

Now we’re about 36 outfielders in, so we’ve actually covered to OF3 in standard mixed leagues. And to be fair, you’d rather have these guys shuttling in and out of your final outfielder spot because they are streaky young players that are adjusting to the league. Gutierrez could be considered a solid OF2, but it’s not clear that he’s got the power (.148 career ISO, .150 is usually average) or speed (5.3 career speed score, 5 is average) to be relevant in mixed leagues as a second outfielder.

Pittsburgh Pirates placed 1B Steve Pearce (ankle) on the DL; recalled UTIL Neil Walker from Triple-A Indianapolis.

The ankle injury is a tough break for Pearce, as the 27-year-old was beginning to get some big league playing time with Jeff Clement (.235 wOBA) flailing at the plate. Still, Pearce is basically a first base-only player who likely doesn’t have the bat to hold the position. The Pirates experimented with him in the outfield, but the 5-11, 200 pounder doesn’t cover much ground. The former South Carolina Gamecock owns a career .281/.354/.482 triple-slash at the Triple-A level, and his ZiPS projection (.269/.336/.455, .345 wOBA) is a little light for first base. He’s the new Chris Shelton.

Walker, meanwhile, is trying to revive his prospect status after all but falling off the map. The 11th overall pick in the 2004 draft began his career as a catcher, but was shifted to third base prior to the 2007 season. The 6-3, 215 pound switch-hitter turned in modestly productive offensive numbers in A-Ball, given that he was behind the dish at that point:

Low-A South Atlantic League (2005): .301/.332/.452, 3.9 BB%, 15.7 K%, .151 ISO
High-A Carolina League (2005-2006): .281/.331/.402, 5.6 BB%, 17.3 K%, .121 ISO

Baseball America ranked Walker as the #81 prospect in the game prior to 2005, #43 before 2006 and #74 leading up to the 2007 season. Before ’07, BA said that Walker’s power was muted in 2006 by a surgically repaired left wrist, but claimed he had “the potential to hit 30 home runs a season.” They did caution that he lack of patience could become an issue in the upper levels of the minors, and that Walker’s D behind the dish was a work in progress. “The Pirates might get more long-term production out of him,” BA said, “by shifting him to another position, and he has the athleticism to handle third base or the outfield.”

In ’07, the Bucs did move Walker to the hot corner, and he batted .277/.349/.434 in a season spent mostly at Double-A Altoona. His power improved somewhat (.157 ISO), and happily, he stopped hacking so much. Walker walked in 9.8 percent of his plate appearances, whiffing 17.4 percent. Baseball America again named him a top 100 prospect, placing him at #61 before the 2008 season.

The next two years of Walker’s career wouldn’t be nearly as sunny. At Triple-A Indianapolis, he batted .242/.280/.414 in 2008 and .264/.311/.480 in 2009. Walker popped some extra-base hits, with a .172 ISO in ’08 and a .216 ISO in ’09, but his plate approach was lousy. He drew ball four just 5.3% and struck out 20.2% in ’08. In ’09, he walked 6.7% and K’d 15.4%. Walker also missed time last year with a sprained knee and a broken pinky. The Pittsburgh native made his big league debut last September, but it was with considerably lower expectations than when the Pirates called his name back in 2004.

Prior to 2010, BA ranked the perennial top-100 prospect as just the 26th-best farm talent in Pittsburgh’s system. His scouting report was blunt: “he undermines his offensive potential by lacking plate discipline…Walker has expressed a willingness to become a super-utility player.” That, said BA, “may be his ticket to having a big league career of any length.”

With Indy this season, Walker has roamed around the diamond. He has logged time at first, second and third base, while also manning left field. He put up a .321/.392/.560 line in 189 PA. A .360+ BABIP certainly helped, but Walker posted a .239 ISO, walked 10.1 percent of the time and whiffed 18.5 percent.

ZiPS projects Walker to bat .259/.304/.439, with a .325 wOBA. His future in Pittsburgh remains hazy, though — Pedro Alvarez is going to man one of the infield corners in short order. And While Andy LaRoche will never be a star-caliber talent, he did post a 2.6 WAR season in 2009. If Alvarez takes over at third, LaRoche could be shifted to second base. Should Pedro play first, Walker could enter the picture at the keystone spot. The outfield corners are a possibility as well.

For now, Walker will get a little PT at third while LaRoche rests his achy back. Walker, 24, is no longer a top prospect. However, his position versatility and power make him a good bet to at least have a long career as a super-utility type.

After a short slate of games on Monday, the news is light. We persevere to find you some waiver nuggets for your pleasure.

Dexter Fowler, Colorado Rockies (7% owned)
First, the flaws in the pro-Fowler case. He’s still striking out too much (25.8%), still having trouble against right-handed pitching (.537 OPS this year, .662 career), and still in a crowded outfield. The thing is, in many a deep league you still need to have a bench. And on that bench you could maybe use a bat that acts predictably in certain situations. Well, Fowler is a cheap bat that you can easily slot in against lefties. Look at his current OPS (.980), career OPS (.880) and career minor league OPS (.843) against lefties and you’ll see a pattern. Add in that he actually had a higher OPS against righties in the minor leagues (.859) and you have your ‘upside.’ In daily-lineup leagues, Fowler is a useful bench bat still, and could be more later.

Will Ohman, Baltimore Orioles (4% owned)
The merry-go-round in Baltimore went around another turn when Alfredo “Shutdown Sauce” Simon had to shutdown his sauce with a hammy injury. Incumbent closer Mike Gonzalez is at least still two weeks away from returning, and fellow Candidate Koji Uehara had to join Simon on the DL with some arm issues. No one wants to step forward and save this island. No matter, the O’s announced that saves would go to Ohman in the interim, and those desperate for saves will be forgiven for picking him up. The lefty is better suited to be a LOOGY (3.57 xFIP versus lefties, 4.87 xFIP versus righties) and his career ground ball percentage (39.9%) suggests that despite his good FIP (2.71) that home run rate (0) won’t last and it’s the xFIP (3.83) that better predicts his success. It’s okay. It’s only for a couple weeks and maybe four or five saves at best. They still count.

Reid Brignac, Tampa Bay Rays, (2% owned)
You, like me, might have some barely startable flotsam or jetsam in one of your MI spots currently. Well, consider Brignac, who looks like he might be getting the lion’s share of at-bats at second base in Tampa. The respective UZR numbers for the possibilities at the position are too small to cite, but as the chunk of his defensive experience at shortstop is a little more recent than Ben Zobrist’s, it might make sense that his infield D is a little better. Or perhaps Brignac is not comfortable in the outfield and Zobrist is a jack of all trades. In the end, though, it’s less about his competition at second base – whiff machine Sean Rodriguez (41.4% K%) most likely – and more about the fact that there are a paucity of options in right field that causes manager Joel Maddon to put Brignac in the lineup. Gabe Kapler is semi-decent against lefties, but is better served as a backup OF. Rodriguez is also playing against lefties and doing pretty well this year (.897 OPS). But against righties, it looks like Brignac is getting some playing time. Which makes him interesting, because he’s always been okay against righties – see his pop (.186 career minor league ISO) and overall numbers (career .799 OPS) against pitchers of that handedness.

A star on the diamond and the hard court at Princeton, San Diego Padres outfielder Will Venable has baseball blood lines and a diverse set of skills. Max Venable’s son earned the right field job for the Padres, and he’s showing an unprecedented blend of power and speed. Should he be on fantasy radars? Let’s try to answer that question.

The Padres selected Venable in the seventh round of the 2005 draft, and the 6-2 lefty batter split the summer of ’05 between the Rookie Level Arizona League and the Short-Season Northwest League. Overall, Venable batted .247/.321/.379, with 7.2 percent walk rate, 23.7% K rate and a .132 Isolated Power in 221 plate appearances. He also swiped six bases in seven tries.

Venable spent the 2006 campaign in the Low-A Midwest League, upping his line to .314/.389/.477 in 541 PA. He showed solid secondary skills (10.2 BB%, .163 ISO), lowered his strikeout rate (17.2 K%) and went 18/23 on the base paths, with the caveat being that he was long in the tooth for Low-A at 23 years old. Following the season, Baseball America lauded his “pure left-handed stroke and bat speed,” and predicted more power would flow from his 210 pound frame.

Instead, Venable’s pop evaporated upon making a two-level jump to the Double-A Texas League in 2007. In 572 PA, he posted a .278/.337/.373 triple-slash, with a paltry .095 ISO. Venable didn’t control the zone especially well either, walking 6.6 percent of the time (his whiff rate remained similar to ’06, at 16.3%). He at least thrived when he managed to get on base, with 21 SB in 23 attempts. BA noted that Venable added a toe-tap to his set-up between ’06 and ’07. The toe-tap, they claimed, “took his legs out of his swing.” He eliminated the trigger during the second half of the ’07 season.

In 2008, Venable moved up to the Triple-A Pacific Coast League and made significant progress. He batted .292/.361/.464 in 464 PA, drawing a walk 8.9 percent with a .172 ISO. The worthwhile trade-off for the extra thump was a higher K rate (23.3 K%). Venable didn’t do much running for the Beavers, with seven steals in 10 tries.

Will got the big league call in late August of ’08, logging 124 PA for the Padres. He hit .264/.339/.391, walking 10.5%, whiffing 19.1% and posting a .127 ISO. He only attempted two steals, getting caught once.

Last year, Venable again split the year between Portland and San Diego. In Triple-A, he authored a .260/.329/.520 line in 226 PA, with his walk and strike out rates barely changing (8.8 BB%, 23 K%). The power output was impressive (.260 ISO). With the Padres, Venable slashed .256/.323/.440 in 324 PA. His strike zone control was rough (7.7 BB%, 30.4 K%), but Venable continued to hit for power with a .184 ISO. He succeeded in six of seven steal attempts.

Heading into 2010, Venable was projected for a .249/.315/.406 line (.318 wOBA) and 7 SB by CHONE and a .249/.309/.385 (.310 wOBA) performance by ZiPS, with 9 SB. The 27-year-old is besting those forecasts so far. In 141 trips to the plate, Venable has a .240/.319/.440 line, with a 10.6% walk rate and a .200 ISO. He’s suddenly running again, too, stealing 12 bases and getting caught once.

Venable’s taking a very aggressive approach at the plate–he has swung at 36.4 percent of pitches thrown outside of the strike zone this year (25-27% MLB average), up from 30.4% in 2009 and 25% in 2008. His walk rate has remained stable because he’s getting few strikes. Opposing pitchers have put just 44.8 percent of pitches within the zone against Venable (48-51% MLB average), compared to 47.8% in 2009 and 49% in 2008.

Will’s power surge has come at the expense of contact. He’s connecting 72.6% of the time in 2010 (80-81% MLB average), a decline from his 73.5% rate in 2009 and 79.7% mark in 2008. He’s punching out 37.6 percent of the time this season.

While Venable is making hard, loud contact when he puts the bat on the ball, it’s questionable if he can keep up this pace. His batting average on balls in play is .347, which is 20 points above his career average in the majors and bests his .336 minor league BABIP. For the rest of 2010, ZiPS projects a .313 BABIP for Venable.

It’s also likely that he’ll hit for less power moving forward. Venable’s minor league track record and work with the Padres from 2008-2010 suggests that he has made a concerted effort to hit with more authority, but a .200 ISO is pushing the upper bounds of what could reasonably be expected. ZiPS forecasts a .148 ISO for the rest of 2010.

Also worth considering: the Padres appear to be shielding Venable from lefty pitching, though he has started against southpaws recently with both Scott Hairston and Kyle Blanks on the DL. Venable didn’t show much a platoon split in the minors, but he has a .282 wOBA against LHP in the majors and a .344 wOBA versus righties. Keep in mind, we’re dealing with a small sample size–140 PA is hardly enough to suggest helplessness against same-side pitching.

With fewer hits falling and Venable hitting for less power, ZiPS calls for a .247/.309/.395 rest-of-season line. I think it’s possible that he bests that modest projection. If he hits around his career mark in the majors (.254/.325/.430, .335 wOBA) and continues to steal bases, Venable is a decent option in NL-only leagues.

Venable is a solid major league hitter–accounting for the constricting confines of Petco, his bat has been 13 percent better than the league average since 2008 (113 wRC+). That being said, placing faith in the Padres’ right fielder continuing his 2010 mashing would be misguided.

It’s been a little while since we did the first outfielders, and some things have changed. Let’s update these with to-date wOBAs and ZiPs RoS wOBAs and injury information and all that jazz, shan’t we?

The Top Three:
Ryan Braun, Milwaukee (.442 wOBA, .402 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Matt Kemp, Los Angeles NL (.355 wOBA, .373 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Justin Upton, Arizona (.350 wOBA, .380 ZiPs RoS wOBA)

Justin Upton is on comeback trail. He’s having a .310/.347/.577 kind of a May which pulls him back into this top-three territory. For those that would like to penalize him for his batting average / strikeout issues, it looks like he either has contact skills that can prop up a decent average or he’s streaky enough to make the final tally look fine. And the counting stats are looking fine – his ZiPs Update has him at 27 home runs and 16 stolen bases. That’s not bad. In fact, it’s good.

There’s Nothing Wrong With…
Nelson Cruz, Texas (.445 wOBA, .383 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Carl Crawford, Tampa Bay (.384 wOBA, .364 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Ichiro Suzuki, Seattle (.368 wOBA, .358 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Matt Holliday, St. Louis (.354 wOBA, .396 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Shin-Soo Choo, Cleveland (.372 wOBA, .377 ZiPs RoS wOBA)

While Justin Upton doesn’t have the lengthy history to ‘prove’ his batting average risk, Nelson Cruz does. He’s come a long way to even get to this point, really. But we know the strikeouts will bring that average down, so don’t go counting on a .301 batting average to last. The rest of the guys on this list are providing stats in multiple categories despite a tiny bit of disappointment in most cases. A stolen base tear or a little power burst, and they’ll turn in seasons like any other on their resumes.

Hurt But Still Good?
Andre Ethier, Los Angeles NL (.507 wOBA, .402 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Jacoby Ellsbury, Boston (.366 wOBA, .345 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Curtis Granderson, New York AL (.315 wOBA, .353 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Grady Sizemore, Cleveland (.256 wOBA, .359 ZiPs RoS wOBA)

New tier for these guys, who are testing patience across the country. Granderson is close to coming back, as he was shagging fly balls recently. Ellsbury played a rehab game, too. Those two represent decent buy-low candidates. You might want to wait for news on Sizemore’s knee – surgery was rumored – before you go poking around on his availability.

Not Quite Five-Category Performers
Josh Hamilton, Texas (.373 wOBA, .368 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Jayson Werth, Philadelphia (.441 wOBA, .396 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Manny Ramirez, Los Angeles NL (.426 wOBA, .413 ZiPs RoS wOBA)

Josh Hamilton and Jayson Werth both look like they are a healthy month away from jumping tiers. Werth is playing a little above his head, but all that contract talk is probably making him salivate. Andre Ethier was leading the triple-crown categories, but maybe he should be in the hurt category. People should be pardoned for being a little skeptical about his huge ISO, given his history. His BABIP should fall, too. There could be some flip-flopping between this tier and the second one with some sustained play.

Missing Something?
Jason Bay, New York NL (.346 wOBA, .383 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Adam Lind, Toronto (.306 wOBA, .353 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Nick Markakis, Baltimore (.365 wOBA, .375 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Andrew McCutchen, Pittsburgh (.394 wOBA, .361 ZiPs RoS wOBA))

McCutchen is moving his way up, but ISO stabilizes latest so we have to be careful about how much we move him up. It’s still possible he belongs with speedsters Michael Bourn and Brett Gardner below. Adam Lind and Nick Markakis in the meantime are moving their way down until they can prove they have some one fantasy tool that we can latch on to. They still have some history to call back on, or else they’d have dropped further.

Upside to Join the Top
B.J. Upton, Tampa Bay (.316 wOBA, .337 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Carlos Quentin (.304 wOBA, .352 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Michael Bourn (.340 wOBA, .322 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Brett Gardner (.391 wOBA, .332 ZiPs RoS wOBA)

The elder Upton’s strikeout rate seems to be the harbinger of a poor batting average, as does Quentin’s poor line drive rate. Michael Bourn just doesn’t have any power, or he’d move up the list himself. Stolen bases are rare enough that some speed-only guys can make their way into the elite, but we do expect some power before they can join the elite of the elite. Brett Gardner is a borderline guy himself until someone drops out, for example. There maybe some movement here in this tier between OF1 and OF2.

On April 23rd, Brennan Boesch stepped into a major league batter’s box for the first time and proceeded to rip the first Rich Harden offering he saw for a double. Since then, the 25-year-old Tigers rookie hasn’t stopped swinging or making loud contact. In just 74 plate appearances, Boesch’s bashing has been worth +7.4 park-adjusted Batting Runs. Where did this guy come from, and what can we expect from him going forward?

Detroit snagged Boesch out of California in the third round of the 2006 draft. A 6-4, 235 pound lefty batter, Boesch fit the physical description of a power hitter but confused scouts with uneven performances for the Golden Bears. Here’s Baseball America’s scouting report leading up to the draft:

He has what scouts look for in a prospect, but while he had set a new career high with 10 home runs, his slugging percentage was actually lower than it was in 2005, and scouts had been disappointed by his overall performance. He’s been erratic, at times showing above-average bat speed and the ability to catch up to good fastballs, and at others showing a long swing that short-circuits his power. His hands are dead at the start of his swing, often keeping him from loading up and generating power.

The Tigers sent Boesch to the short-season New York-Penn that summer, where he hit .291/.344/.435 in 317 plate appearances. He walked in 6.6 percent of his PA and punched out 14.4 percent, posting a .144 Isolated Power.

Boesch ranked 16th on BA’s list of top Tigers prospects prior to the 2007 season, but he dipped to 24th before 2008 and fell off the list entirely leading up to the 2009 campaign. In the Low-A Midwest League in ’07, he batted a weak .267/.297/.378 in 542 PA, drawing ball four 4.2 percent and striking out 15.8 percent. Boesch’s ISO fell to a middle infielder-like .111, with BA saying that he “lacked the plus power expected from a corner outfielder.”

His 2008 season was little better: a .249/.310/.379 triple-slash in 461 PA in the High-A Florida State League, with a 7.8 percent walk rate, a 21.6 percent K rate and a .129 ISO. The MWL and the FSL are difficult offensive environments, but college-trained outfielders hacking and hitting singles aren’t going to elicit much excitement from talent evaluators.

In 2009, Boesch showed an offensive pulse for the first time in pro ball. Bumped up to the Double-A Eastern League, he hit .275/.318/.510 in 571 PA. Boesch remained aggressive (5.8 BB%) and his strikeout rate climbed to 24.1 percent, but his ISO shot up to .235. Baseball America rated Boesch as the 26th-best prospect in Detroit’s system this past offseason.

After a hot start in the Triple-A International League (.379/.455/.621 in 66 PA), Boesch got the big league call and has logged time in the corner outfield and DH spots. He owns a .380/.392/.676 line, with three home runs and a .296 ISO. Boesch’s plate approach, however, leaves much to be desired.

So far, his strike zone has been the size of Lake Michigan. Boesch has chased 50.4 percent of pitches thrown outside of the zone, highest among hitters with at least 70 plate appearances. He’s out-hacking the master of junk ball swinging, Vladimir Guerrero (49.6 O-Swing%). On pitches within the zone, Boesch has taken a cut 84.6 percent. Only Vlad (86.4 Z-Swing%) has swung at in-zone pitches more often. Boesch’s overall 66.4 percent swing rate bests The Impaler’s 65.2 percent mark.

Guerrero might be able to get away with swinging at everything. Boesch isn’t Vlad, though. That 2.7 percent walk rate is going to be an issue once his .421 batting average on balls in play comes back down to Earth.

Coming into 2010, CHONE projected Boesch for a .230/.261/.364 line. That seems pessimistic, but it is important to keep in mind that we’re talking about a mid-twenties prospect with a career .273/.319/.434 minor league line. He has an ultra-aggressive philosophy, and holds a .247/.294/.364 minor league triple-slash against lefty pitching. Boesch isn’t a hot-shot youngster so much as he’s a righty masher with a low OBP and problems with same-handed hurlers.