After a short slate of games on Monday, the news is light. We persevere to find you some waiver nuggets for your pleasure.

Dexter Fowler, Colorado Rockies (7% owned)
First, the flaws in the pro-Fowler case. He’s still striking out too much (25.8%), still having trouble against right-handed pitching (.537 OPS this year, .662 career), and still in a crowded outfield. The thing is, in many a deep league you still need to have a bench. And on that bench you could maybe use a bat that acts predictably in certain situations. Well, Fowler is a cheap bat that you can easily slot in against lefties. Look at his current OPS (.980), career OPS (.880) and career minor league OPS (.843) against lefties and you’ll see a pattern. Add in that he actually had a higher OPS against righties in the minor leagues (.859) and you have your ‘upside.’ In daily-lineup leagues, Fowler is a useful bench bat still, and could be more later.

Will Ohman, Baltimore Orioles (4% owned)
The merry-go-round in Baltimore went around another turn when Alfredo “Shutdown Sauce” Simon had to shutdown his sauce with a hammy injury. Incumbent closer Mike Gonzalez is at least still two weeks away from returning, and fellow Candidate Koji Uehara had to join Simon on the DL with some arm issues. No one wants to step forward and save this island. No matter, the O’s announced that saves would go to Ohman in the interim, and those desperate for saves will be forgiven for picking him up. The lefty is better suited to be a LOOGY (3.57 xFIP versus lefties, 4.87 xFIP versus righties) and his career ground ball percentage (39.9%) suggests that despite his good FIP (2.71) that home run rate (0) won’t last and it’s the xFIP (3.83) that better predicts his success. It’s okay. It’s only for a couple weeks and maybe four or five saves at best. They still count.

Reid Brignac, Tampa Bay Rays, (2% owned)
You, like me, might have some barely startable flotsam or jetsam in one of your MI spots currently. Well, consider Brignac, who looks like he might be getting the lion’s share of at-bats at second base in Tampa. The respective UZR numbers for the possibilities at the position are too small to cite, but as the chunk of his defensive experience at shortstop is a little more recent than Ben Zobrist’s, it might make sense that his infield D is a little better. Or perhaps Brignac is not comfortable in the outfield and Zobrist is a jack of all trades. In the end, though, it’s less about his competition at second base – whiff machine Sean Rodriguez (41.4% K%) most likely – and more about the fact that there are a paucity of options in right field that causes manager Joel Maddon to put Brignac in the lineup. Gabe Kapler is semi-decent against lefties, but is better served as a backup OF. Rodriguez is also playing against lefties and doing pretty well this year (.897 OPS). But against righties, it looks like Brignac is getting some playing time. Which makes him interesting, because he’s always been okay against righties – see his pop (.186 career minor league ISO) and overall numbers (career .799 OPS) against pitchers of that handedness.

A star on the diamond and the hard court at Princeton, San Diego Padres outfielder Will Venable has baseball blood lines and a diverse set of skills. Max Venable’s son earned the right field job for the Padres, and he’s showing an unprecedented blend of power and speed. Should he be on fantasy radars? Let’s try to answer that question.

The Padres selected Venable in the seventh round of the 2005 draft, and the 6-2 lefty batter split the summer of ’05 between the Rookie Level Arizona League and the Short-Season Northwest League. Overall, Venable batted .247/.321/.379, with 7.2 percent walk rate, 23.7% K rate and a .132 Isolated Power in 221 plate appearances. He also swiped six bases in seven tries.

Venable spent the 2006 campaign in the Low-A Midwest League, upping his line to .314/.389/.477 in 541 PA. He showed solid secondary skills (10.2 BB%, .163 ISO), lowered his strikeout rate (17.2 K%) and went 18/23 on the base paths, with the caveat being that he was long in the tooth for Low-A at 23 years old. Following the season, Baseball America lauded his “pure left-handed stroke and bat speed,” and predicted more power would flow from his 210 pound frame.

Instead, Venable’s pop evaporated upon making a two-level jump to the Double-A Texas League in 2007. In 572 PA, he posted a .278/.337/.373 triple-slash, with a paltry .095 ISO. Venable didn’t control the zone especially well either, walking 6.6 percent of the time (his whiff rate remained similar to ’06, at 16.3%). He at least thrived when he managed to get on base, with 21 SB in 23 attempts. BA noted that Venable added a toe-tap to his set-up between ’06 and ’07. The toe-tap, they claimed, “took his legs out of his swing.” He eliminated the trigger during the second half of the ’07 season.

In 2008, Venable moved up to the Triple-A Pacific Coast League and made significant progress. He batted .292/.361/.464 in 464 PA, drawing a walk 8.9 percent with a .172 ISO. The worthwhile trade-off for the extra thump was a higher K rate (23.3 K%). Venable didn’t do much running for the Beavers, with seven steals in 10 tries.

Will got the big league call in late August of ’08, logging 124 PA for the Padres. He hit .264/.339/.391, walking 10.5%, whiffing 19.1% and posting a .127 ISO. He only attempted two steals, getting caught once.

Last year, Venable again split the year between Portland and San Diego. In Triple-A, he authored a .260/.329/.520 line in 226 PA, with his walk and strike out rates barely changing (8.8 BB%, 23 K%). The power output was impressive (.260 ISO). With the Padres, Venable slashed .256/.323/.440 in 324 PA. His strike zone control was rough (7.7 BB%, 30.4 K%), but Venable continued to hit for power with a .184 ISO. He succeeded in six of seven steal attempts.

Heading into 2010, Venable was projected for a .249/.315/.406 line (.318 wOBA) and 7 SB by CHONE and a .249/.309/.385 (.310 wOBA) performance by ZiPS, with 9 SB. The 27-year-old is besting those forecasts so far. In 141 trips to the plate, Venable has a .240/.319/.440 line, with a 10.6% walk rate and a .200 ISO. He’s suddenly running again, too, stealing 12 bases and getting caught once.

Venable’s taking a very aggressive approach at the plate–he has swung at 36.4 percent of pitches thrown outside of the strike zone this year (25-27% MLB average), up from 30.4% in 2009 and 25% in 2008. His walk rate has remained stable because he’s getting few strikes. Opposing pitchers have put just 44.8 percent of pitches within the zone against Venable (48-51% MLB average), compared to 47.8% in 2009 and 49% in 2008.

Will’s power surge has come at the expense of contact. He’s connecting 72.6% of the time in 2010 (80-81% MLB average), a decline from his 73.5% rate in 2009 and 79.7% mark in 2008. He’s punching out 37.6 percent of the time this season.

While Venable is making hard, loud contact when he puts the bat on the ball, it’s questionable if he can keep up this pace. His batting average on balls in play is .347, which is 20 points above his career average in the majors and bests his .336 minor league BABIP. For the rest of 2010, ZiPS projects a .313 BABIP for Venable.

It’s also likely that he’ll hit for less power moving forward. Venable’s minor league track record and work with the Padres from 2008-2010 suggests that he has made a concerted effort to hit with more authority, but a .200 ISO is pushing the upper bounds of what could reasonably be expected. ZiPS forecasts a .148 ISO for the rest of 2010.

Also worth considering: the Padres appear to be shielding Venable from lefty pitching, though he has started against southpaws recently with both Scott Hairston and Kyle Blanks on the DL. Venable didn’t show much a platoon split in the minors, but he has a .282 wOBA against LHP in the majors and a .344 wOBA versus righties. Keep in mind, we’re dealing with a small sample size–140 PA is hardly enough to suggest helplessness against same-side pitching.

With fewer hits falling and Venable hitting for less power, ZiPS calls for a .247/.309/.395 rest-of-season line. I think it’s possible that he bests that modest projection. If he hits around his career mark in the majors (.254/.325/.430, .335 wOBA) and continues to steal bases, Venable is a decent option in NL-only leagues.

Venable is a solid major league hitter–accounting for the constricting confines of Petco, his bat has been 13 percent better than the league average since 2008 (113 wRC+). That being said, placing faith in the Padres’ right fielder continuing his 2010 mashing would be misguided.

It’s been a little while since we did the first outfielders, and some things have changed. Let’s update these with to-date wOBAs and ZiPs RoS wOBAs and injury information and all that jazz, shan’t we?

The Top Three:
Ryan Braun, Milwaukee (.442 wOBA, .402 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Matt Kemp, Los Angeles NL (.355 wOBA, .373 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Justin Upton, Arizona (.350 wOBA, .380 ZiPs RoS wOBA)

Justin Upton is on comeback trail. He’s having a .310/.347/.577 kind of a May which pulls him back into this top-three territory. For those that would like to penalize him for his batting average / strikeout issues, it looks like he either has contact skills that can prop up a decent average or he’s streaky enough to make the final tally look fine. And the counting stats are looking fine – his ZiPs Update has him at 27 home runs and 16 stolen bases. That’s not bad. In fact, it’s good.

There’s Nothing Wrong With…
Nelson Cruz, Texas (.445 wOBA, .383 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Carl Crawford, Tampa Bay (.384 wOBA, .364 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Ichiro Suzuki, Seattle (.368 wOBA, .358 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Matt Holliday, St. Louis (.354 wOBA, .396 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Shin-Soo Choo, Cleveland (.372 wOBA, .377 ZiPs RoS wOBA)

While Justin Upton doesn’t have the lengthy history to ‘prove’ his batting average risk, Nelson Cruz does. He’s come a long way to even get to this point, really. But we know the strikeouts will bring that average down, so don’t go counting on a .301 batting average to last. The rest of the guys on this list are providing stats in multiple categories despite a tiny bit of disappointment in most cases. A stolen base tear or a little power burst, and they’ll turn in seasons like any other on their resumes.

Hurt But Still Good?
Andre Ethier, Los Angeles NL (.507 wOBA, .402 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Jacoby Ellsbury, Boston (.366 wOBA, .345 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Curtis Granderson, New York AL (.315 wOBA, .353 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Grady Sizemore, Cleveland (.256 wOBA, .359 ZiPs RoS wOBA)

New tier for these guys, who are testing patience across the country. Granderson is close to coming back, as he was shagging fly balls recently. Ellsbury played a rehab game, too. Those two represent decent buy-low candidates. You might want to wait for news on Sizemore’s knee – surgery was rumored – before you go poking around on his availability.

Not Quite Five-Category Performers
Josh Hamilton, Texas (.373 wOBA, .368 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Jayson Werth, Philadelphia (.441 wOBA, .396 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Manny Ramirez, Los Angeles NL (.426 wOBA, .413 ZiPs RoS wOBA)

Josh Hamilton and Jayson Werth both look like they are a healthy month away from jumping tiers. Werth is playing a little above his head, but all that contract talk is probably making him salivate. Andre Ethier was leading the triple-crown categories, but maybe he should be in the hurt category. People should be pardoned for being a little skeptical about his huge ISO, given his history. His BABIP should fall, too. There could be some flip-flopping between this tier and the second one with some sustained play.

Missing Something?
Jason Bay, New York NL (.346 wOBA, .383 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Adam Lind, Toronto (.306 wOBA, .353 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Nick Markakis, Baltimore (.365 wOBA, .375 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Andrew McCutchen, Pittsburgh (.394 wOBA, .361 ZiPs RoS wOBA))

McCutchen is moving his way up, but ISO stabilizes latest so we have to be careful about how much we move him up. It’s still possible he belongs with speedsters Michael Bourn and Brett Gardner below. Adam Lind and Nick Markakis in the meantime are moving their way down until they can prove they have some one fantasy tool that we can latch on to. They still have some history to call back on, or else they’d have dropped further.

Upside to Join the Top
B.J. Upton, Tampa Bay (.316 wOBA, .337 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Carlos Quentin (.304 wOBA, .352 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Michael Bourn (.340 wOBA, .322 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Brett Gardner (.391 wOBA, .332 ZiPs RoS wOBA)

The elder Upton’s strikeout rate seems to be the harbinger of a poor batting average, as does Quentin’s poor line drive rate. Michael Bourn just doesn’t have any power, or he’d move up the list himself. Stolen bases are rare enough that some speed-only guys can make their way into the elite, but we do expect some power before they can join the elite of the elite. Brett Gardner is a borderline guy himself until someone drops out, for example. There maybe some movement here in this tier between OF1 and OF2.

On April 23rd, Brennan Boesch stepped into a major league batter’s box for the first time and proceeded to rip the first Rich Harden offering he saw for a double. Since then, the 25-year-old Tigers rookie hasn’t stopped swinging or making loud contact. In just 74 plate appearances, Boesch’s bashing has been worth +7.4 park-adjusted Batting Runs. Where did this guy come from, and what can we expect from him going forward?

Detroit snagged Boesch out of California in the third round of the 2006 draft. A 6-4, 235 pound lefty batter, Boesch fit the physical description of a power hitter but confused scouts with uneven performances for the Golden Bears. Here’s Baseball America’s scouting report leading up to the draft:

He has what scouts look for in a prospect, but while he had set a new career high with 10 home runs, his slugging percentage was actually lower than it was in 2005, and scouts had been disappointed by his overall performance. He’s been erratic, at times showing above-average bat speed and the ability to catch up to good fastballs, and at others showing a long swing that short-circuits his power. His hands are dead at the start of his swing, often keeping him from loading up and generating power.

The Tigers sent Boesch to the short-season New York-Penn that summer, where he hit .291/.344/.435 in 317 plate appearances. He walked in 6.6 percent of his PA and punched out 14.4 percent, posting a .144 Isolated Power.

Boesch ranked 16th on BA’s list of top Tigers prospects prior to the 2007 season, but he dipped to 24th before 2008 and fell off the list entirely leading up to the 2009 campaign. In the Low-A Midwest League in ’07, he batted a weak .267/.297/.378 in 542 PA, drawing ball four 4.2 percent and striking out 15.8 percent. Boesch’s ISO fell to a middle infielder-like .111, with BA saying that he “lacked the plus power expected from a corner outfielder.”

His 2008 season was little better: a .249/.310/.379 triple-slash in 461 PA in the High-A Florida State League, with a 7.8 percent walk rate, a 21.6 percent K rate and a .129 ISO. The MWL and the FSL are difficult offensive environments, but college-trained outfielders hacking and hitting singles aren’t going to elicit much excitement from talent evaluators.

In 2009, Boesch showed an offensive pulse for the first time in pro ball. Bumped up to the Double-A Eastern League, he hit .275/.318/.510 in 571 PA. Boesch remained aggressive (5.8 BB%) and his strikeout rate climbed to 24.1 percent, but his ISO shot up to .235. Baseball America rated Boesch as the 26th-best prospect in Detroit’s system this past offseason.

After a hot start in the Triple-A International League (.379/.455/.621 in 66 PA), Boesch got the big league call and has logged time in the corner outfield and DH spots. He owns a .380/.392/.676 line, with three home runs and a .296 ISO. Boesch’s plate approach, however, leaves much to be desired.

So far, his strike zone has been the size of Lake Michigan. Boesch has chased 50.4 percent of pitches thrown outside of the zone, highest among hitters with at least 70 plate appearances. He’s out-hacking the master of junk ball swinging, Vladimir Guerrero (49.6 O-Swing%). On pitches within the zone, Boesch has taken a cut 84.6 percent. Only Vlad (86.4 Z-Swing%) has swung at in-zone pitches more often. Boesch’s overall 66.4 percent swing rate bests The Impaler’s 65.2 percent mark.

Guerrero might be able to get away with swinging at everything. Boesch isn’t Vlad, though. That 2.7 percent walk rate is going to be an issue once his .421 batting average on balls in play comes back down to Earth.

Coming into 2010, CHONE projected Boesch for a .230/.261/.364 line. That seems pessimistic, but it is important to keep in mind that we’re talking about a mid-twenties prospect with a career .273/.319/.434 minor league line. He has an ultra-aggressive philosophy, and holds a .247/.294/.364 minor league triple-slash against lefty pitching. Boesch isn’t a hot-shot youngster so much as he’s a righty masher with a low OBP and problems with same-handed hurlers.

Here are two hitters with single-digit ownership rates who deserve more attention…

Gaby Sanchez, Marlins (owned in 5% of Yahoo Leagues)

A 2005 fourth-round pick out of the University of Miami, Sanchez is keeping first base warm for top prospect Logan Morrison. However, Morrison’s ascent has been temporarily slowed by a right shoulder injury, and Sanchez is performing well.

Owning a career .302/.392/.485 line in the minors, the 26-year-old righty batter is hitting .283/.362/.469 in 127 plate appearances, with a .365 wOBA. Known for a discerning eye that allowed him to walk in 12 percent of his PA on the farm, Sanchez has actually swung at a good deal of pitches out of the zone this season (32.8%, compared to the 27.3% MLB average in 2010). He still has a solid 10.2 BB%, though, and he’s showing more power than expected with a .186 ISO.

There’s not a ton of upside here: Sanchez is a mid-twenties prospect with mid-range pop at a position where players are supposed to mash. But he’s not a bad option in NL-only leagues.

Luke Scott, Orioles (7%)

Even after popping home runs against the Mariners on May 12 and May 13, Scott’s .232/.290/.475 triple-slash looks weak. However, the 31-year-old has gotten hosed on balls put in play. His BABIP sits at .246, compared to a career .295 mark.

Granted, Scott is venturing out of the strike zone more than he usually does. His outside swing percentage, 23.4 for his career, is 31.7 percent in 2010. That explains his career-low 7.5 percent walk rate. But in more than 1,900 career plate appearances with the Astros and O’s, Scott has taken a free pass 10.9 percent while batting .262/.346/.493 (.358 wOBA). It seems unlikely that he suddenly caught Francoeur-itis.

Scott’s rest-of-season ZiPS projection is .252/.335/.478, with a .356 wOBA. Given his multi-position eligibility (outfield and first base), he’s worth a roster spot in AL-only formats.

It’s finally Friday. Here’s an afternoon delight, three waiver wire candidates, each at differing levels of ownership.

Jason Kubel | OF | Twins (54% owned)
Maybe last year was Kubel’s career year. Maybe his ISO wont be .200+ again. He’s swinging less often yet he’s swinging more often and stuff outside the zone. The good news is that he’s still hitting line drives so that BABIP should embiggen. He could be a better option available on the wire for those that are running Juan Rivera out there every day, for example. Rivera is reaching more and swinging less in the same way, has also seen a power loss, but isn’t hitting as many line drives. It might be a 50/50 proposition, but if you own someone worse than Rivera, Kubel should be interesting to you.

Felipe Lopez | 2B/SS | Cardinals (19% owned)
Felipe Lopez is a better player than Brendan Ryan. At least offensively. Defensively, Lopez is closing the gap. And the way that Ryan is currently struggling, he may not get to wait around for that BABIP to normalize before the newcomer usurps his job. Lopez has always had more power than Ryan, and now that his defense has improved the last two years, and he’s walking as often as the incumbent, it seems that he will take the job once he returns from his current rehab stint.

John Maine | SP | Mets (12% owned)
Sometimes, when a player is only owned in 12% of leagues, it’s for good reason and it’s hard to recommend the player. Maine, for example, is walking a career-high (for the NL at least), his fastball is the slowest it’s been in his career and none of his featured pitches has been worth positive runs in linear weights. So why is he interesting again? Well, swing rates stabilize first, and Maine has got a career-high reach rate (28.4%) and a career-low contact rate (77.4%). If he was effective at 91 MPH, why not at 89 MPH? As your last pitcher in a deep league, you can leave him on the bench and watch the radar guns. With those reach and contact rates, he’s already doing something right. It may not yet be significant, but Citi Field is suppressing home runs by almost 50% this year (last year it augmented home runs by 5.7%). That could be a bonus.

We’ll try to avoid breaking any unwritten rules by jumping right into the waiver wire post. Be nice to us Dallas Braden – we know little about this nebulous code of conduct.

Edwin Encarnacion | 3B | Blue Jays (5% owned)
There are plenty of flaws in double-E’s game, starting with the most problematic of the bunch (and source of his nickname) – his defense. He owns a -20.7 career UZR/150 at his position, and there’s little doubt he’s limited with the leather. It may end up costing him time with the Jays as they see him boot more soft grounders. Even with the bat, he’s pretty average. His career walk rate (9.1%), strikeout rate (20.6%), reach rate (24%), and contact percentage (80%) are all pretty right on the major league averages in those categories. But the reason you’d pick up double-E is his power, as he’s hit 26 home runs in a season before. You may then be surprised to hear that his career ISO (.188) is not far above average either (.155 most years). Then again, there are plenty of leagues where an average bat at an infield position is very valuable. So there’s that.

Kris Medlen | SP/RP | Braves (3% owned)
It’s not too often that a prospect follows Medlen’s career path. He debuted in pro ball with the Braves as a reliever and immediately blew the doors off the first three levels he encountered with a strikeout rate over twelve and a walk rate below two. Even in only 69 innings, an FIP around two is impressive. I guess the Braves wanted to see if they could get a few more innings out of their nice arm, and they began starting him. He responded with a 9.0 K/9 and a 2.0 BB/9 in double-A. So of course the Braves then called him up as a reliever and the resulting 3.67 xFIP in his first 89.2 innings is major league history. Now the Braves are calling on him to start again with Jair Jurrjens out longer than expected, and if history is to be believed, Medlen can handle the challenge. If he pitches like he has before, he may even hold onto the job when JJj comes back – it’s not like Kenshin Kawakami is using all those K’s on the league. Most deep leagues could use a flier like Medlen, especially since he pitches in the weaker league. Guess that makes me a little more optimistic about his future than Mike Axisa was just yesterday.

Michael Saunders | OF | Mariners (0% owned)
Like with Encarnacion before, Saunders comes with warts despite being named the Mariners’ number one prospect by Marc Hulet this offseason. His 27.8% strikeout percentage in the minor leagues leaps off the page. Also, if you adjust his career minor league line for park and luck using MinorLeagueSplits.com, you get an unispiring .273/.358/.430 line. His .165 ISO in the minors is not very impressive either (the major league average is usually around .155). Last but not least, Saunders showed a platoon split most years in the minor leagues. Excited yet? The good news is that Saunders has shown some incremental improvement in his strikeout rate in 2009 and 2010. He’s also still young-ish (23) and his power is trending upwards. He should play against righties with Milton Bradley out indefinitely and Ken Griffey caught napping in the clubhouse during games, who knows. He will probably get at-bats all year.

When it comes to offensive ineptitude, the Houston Astros reign supreme. Collectively, ‘Stros batters have a MLB-worst .260 wOBA. That’s 29 points below the mark posted by the second-to-last Mariners. Houston ranks dead last in the majors in walk rate as well, at 5.1 percent. It’s not close, either: the Royals and Orioles, tied for 29th-place, look downright patient by comparison, drawing free passes at a 7.2 percent rate. Not surprisingly, the Astros have hacked at plenty of pitches out of the strike zone (29.8 percent, 6th-highest in the majors; the MLB average is 25-27% in recent years).

The biggest hacker, aside from Humberto Quintero, has been right fielder Hunter Pence. Houston’s second round pick in the 2004 draft broke into the big leagues in 2007, hitting .322/.360/.539 with a .384 wOBA. While Pence displayed excellent pop during his rookie year (.217 Isolated Power), his .377 batting average on balls in play was bound to come down. It did in 2008 (.301 BABIP), and his line dropped to .269/.318/.466 (.334 wOBA). Pence again put a charge into the ball, with a .197 ISO, but his free-swinging ways were more of a problem without all of those additional bloops and bleeders avoiding leather.

In 2009, Pence showed more restraint at the plate and turned in a quality offensive season. After swinging at 29.8 percent of pitches out of the zone in ’07 and 31.1 percent in ’08, Pence chased 26.6 percent of outside pitches in ’09. His walk rate, 5.4 percent and 6.2 percent the two previous seasons, climbed to nine percent (right around the MLB average). With more walks, similar power (.190 ISO) and a .308 BABIP, Pence produced a .282/.346/.472 triple-slash (.351 wOBA).

At 27, Pence appeared ready to settle in as a good fantasy option with a passable walk rate, above-average power and a dash of speed (he cracked the double digits in SB each year from 2007-2009). ZiPS predicted a .350 wOBA, while CHONE (.358 wOBA) and the FANS (.363 wOBA) expected slightly more.

Instead, Pence has sputtered to a .231/.252/.343 line so far, with a feeble .254 wOBA. Those plate discipline gains haven’t carried over to 2010, as he has swung at 34.4 of pitches off the dish. Pence has worked opposing pitchers for a walk just three times in 111 plate appearances (2.7 percent). He’s putting the ball in play on the first pitch or getting behind in the count 0-1 at the highest rate of his career, with a 65.8 first pitch strike percentage (57-58% MLB average).

Pence is making contact at the highest rate of his career, but most of that additional contact is coming on those pitcher’s pitches off the plate: his percentage of contact within the zone is 89 percent (85% career average), but his O-Contact is 75.4 percent (57.5% career average). Swinging at and making contact with so many bad pitches has led to plenty of weakly hit balls put in play for Pence.

His groundball rate, 49-53 percent between 2007 and 2009, has spiked to 65.3 percent. Pence’s rate of fly balls hit has dipped to 24.2 percent (32.4% career average) and his line drive rate is 10.5 percent (15.3% career average). Ground balls, obviously, don’t lead to many extra-base hits. Grounders hit in the NL have a .250 slugging percentage in 2010, compared to .615 for fly balls and .988 for line drives. When Pence isn’t pounding the ball into the grass, he’s popping it up. His infield/fly ball percentage is 26.1 percent, compared to a 12.1% career average and the near-eight percent big league average. The University of Texas at Arlington product might have a .239 BABIP, but he’s been awful by any measure.

Pence owners should ride out this rough stretch, as his value is at its lowest point. This could be a good time to grab Pence at a serious discount, though, as he’s owned in just 65% of Yahoo leagues and has surely frustrated some of those owners who have held on to him. Of course, Pence being a buy-low candidate capable of paying dividends is predicated on his taking a plate approach that doesn’t resemble a stoner with the munchies swinging at a pinata. Pence needs to show better patience if he’s going to rebound significantly.

Since outfielders are so bountiful, it makes sense to create some tiers. We’ll start these rankings at 17, which means that the first outfielder may be an OF1 in most leagues, but we’ll still be able to delve a little deeper than we have to date. Once again, to-date wOBA plus ZiPS RoS wOBA is listed.

Worst of the Best?
1. Andrew McCutchen, Pittsburgh (.390 wOBA, .360 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
2. B.J. Upton, Tampa Bay (.328 wOBA, .339 ZiPs Ros wOBA)
3. Manny Ramirez, Los Angeles (.484 wOBA, .414 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
4. Adam Lind, Toronto (.323 wOBA, .356 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
5. Carlos Gonzalez, Colorado (.345 wOBA, .351 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
6. Bobby Abreu, Los Angeles (.343 wOBA, .361 ZiPs RoS wOBA)

Jayson Werth and Andre Ethier moved up into the OF1 rankings with their strong play in the early goings. Adam Lind and Manny Ramirez moved down because of mediocre play and old age, though Lind could still get it going – he just needs to find his power and stop striking out so much. Neither of those things becomes significant in a short sample. That fact should temper our enthusiasm for McCutchen a tiny bit, though, since there is still no guarantee that he will retain all the power gains he’s made in the past year-plus. As an aside, it’s a little silly to hear about how few times Manny Ramirez has gone on the DL. We all know he’s old and injury-prone at this point. 2008 aside, he’s the kind of guy that misses time here and there but has “somehow” avoided the DL.

Still Strong
7. Adam Dunn, Chicago (.387 wOBA, .393 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
8. Alfonso Soriano, Chicago (.435 wOBA, .370 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
9. Torii Hunter, Los Angeles (.358 wOBA, .366 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
10. Michael Bourn, Houston (.363 wOBA, .324 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
11. Denard Span, Minnesota (.354 wOBA, .342 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
12. Carlos Quentin, Chicago (.294 wOBA, .351 ZiPs RoS wOBA)

This is the boring-as-vanilla tier for the most part (but to be fair, it does seem that Haagen-Dazs Vanilla with strawberries is the nectar of the gods). Carlos Quentin is making it harder to believe in him every day, but he’s having some BABIP problems and we can hope that power comes back still. Not too late for him to turn it around and have a decent year. Soriano’s resurgence takes him from afterthought to solid OF2, which is actually sort of an amazing thing with how bad he’s looked in the recent past.

What’s Going On?
14. Jason Heyward, Atlanta (.439 wOBA, .356 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
15. Alex Rios, Chicago (.384 wOBA, .346 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
15. Chase Headley, San Diego (.378 wOBA, .327 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
12. Adam Jones, Baltimore (.255 wOBA, .342 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
13. Carlos Lee, Houston (.230 wOBA, .357 ZiPs RoS wOBA)

Yup, as boring as the tier above was, this tier is full of rock-em-sock-em peaks and valleys. Is Jason Heyward really an OF2 already? Will he be a top tier OF1 by the end of the year? He’s really surpassing even the most precocious of young stars with his performance to date. The best news is that he’s making adjustments on breaking balls. Alex Rios, Chase Headley? Finally? And Adam Jones and Carlos Lee may not be remotely close in terms of career arc, but they are looking in the same closet for their lost games. Hopefully for their owners they will find what they are looking for.

For Reals? Really Reals?
Colby Rasmus, St. Louis (.419 wOBA, .342 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Austin Jackson, Detroit (.414 wOBA, .307 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Brett Gardner, New York (.415 wOBA, .330 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Marlon Byrd, Chicago (.422 wOBA, .363 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Vernon Wells, Toronto (.440 wOBA, .346 ZiPs RoS wOBA)

Marlon Byrd has to count as the most surprising player in this tier full of surprises. There aren’t enough words for this space to unpack all that’s going on here, but you’ll see analysis on these guys here at FanGraphs and RotoGraphs. I promise.

The Baltimore Orioles are off to a rough start at the plate. The O’s currently have a .308 team wOBA, ranking 11th in the American League. Baltimore batters have hacked at 30 percent of pitches thrown off the plate, a mark topped only by the Blue Jays and Royals. In particular, the outfielders have made outs at a dizzying clip: Orioles’ fly catchers have a collective .300 wOBA, besting only the Athletics among Junior Circuit clubs.

Expect that mark to improve in the weeks and months to come. Matt Klaassen recently discussed the poor luck on balls put in play endured by OF/DH Luke Scott, but Scott isn’t the only O’s hitter whose underlying performance is better than the ugly line that he currently holds. Nolan Reimold sits at the Mendoza Line, but he and his fantasy owners should expect that to soon change.

Reimold, 26, is a 2005 second-round pick out of Bowling Green State who compiled a .286/.383/.521 triple-slash in the minors. Though he showed quality secondary skills (12.5 percent walk rate, .235 Isolated Power), Reimold’s ascent to the majors was slowed by a series of injuries: foot and back problems in 2006 and a strained oblique in 2007.

Reaching Baltimore in May of 2009, Reimold put up a .279/.365/.466 line in 411 plate appearances during his rookie season. He popped 15 home runs with a .187 ISO, walking in 11.4 percent of his PA while posting a .365 wOBA. Injuries again crept into the conversation, as Reimold was shut down in mid-September with a left Achilles ailment that required surgery.

In 2010, the hulking 6-4 hitter was expected to be an offensive asset by ZiPS, CHONE and (especially) the FANS:

ZiPS: .273/.345/.440, .346 wOBA
CHONE: .275/.355/.477, .362 wOBA
FANS: .281/.370/.484, .372 wOBA

However, even after going deep off of David Robertson on Cinco de Mayo, Reimold owns a .200/.305/.357 line in 82 PA (.299 wOBA). The former Falcon’s Yahoo ownership has taken a dive to 26 percent. Look a little deeper, though, and it appears that there’s not much to worry about.

Reimold’s rate of free passes taken is 12.2%, up from last season. His K rate is slightly higher (24.3% in ’10, 21.5% in ’09) and his power is down a bit (.157 ISO). But neither of those changes are drastic, and given the sample size, they’re hardly alarming.

The biggest difference between Reimold’s debut and his 2010 season to date is his BABIP: .316 in 2009, and just .231 this year. Nothing in his batted ball profile has altered dramatically. He’s hitting more fly balls (which do have a lower BABIP than grounders), but those extra flys are in place of infield fly balls, the closest thing to a gimme out on a ball put in play. Point to the line drive rate if you’d like, but one person’s line drive can be another’s fly ball.

ZiPS projects Reimold for a .265/.338/.434 (.341 wOBA) performance for the rest of 2010. Personally, I’d take the over on that line if he has no further injury problems. Reimold’s misfortune provides fantasy owners with the chance to pick up a good hitter at a discount price.