Aaron Cunningham, Padres (Owned in 1% of Yahoo leagues)

Cunningham, 24, has been traded as many times (three) as he has gone deep in the major leagues. The Chicago White Sox originally picked the righty batter in the 6th round of the 2005 draft, but swapped him to the Arizona Diamondbacks for INF Danny Richar in June of 2007. The D-Backs then traded Cunningham to the Oakland A’s (along with LHPs Brett Anderson, Greg Smith and Dana Eveland, OF Carlos Gonzalez and 1B/DH Chris Carter) for RHPs Dan Haren and Connor Robertson in December of ’07. This past winter, Oakland sent him to San Diego (with OF Scott Hairston) for 3B Kevin Kouzmanoff and INF Eric Sogard.

That lengthy transaction history tells you two things about Cunningham — he’s a potentially useful player, but his talents aren’t so great as to make parting with him unbearable. His career minor league line is .304/.376/.484 in 2,300+ PA, including .296/.366/.475 in 667 PA at the Triple-A level. In the PCL, Cunningham has shown decent power (.179 ISO), but his strike-zone control hasn’t been especially sharp (8.8 BB%, 23.1 K%). Hot start with the Padres aside, his major league projections are tepid — .240/.298/.371 for the rest of 2010 according to ZiPS, and .257/.322/.413 per CHONE. Cunningham has been filling in for Will Venable (on the DL with a back injury), and his strong showing in a few weeks’ worth of games might excite some. But he looks like a fringe starter — the sort of player with whom teams play roster hot potato.

Cliff Pennington, Athletics (17%)

The 2010 season is Pennington’s chance to prove he’s capable of more than merely keeping the shortstop spot warm until Grant Green’s big league-ready. A first-round pick out of Texas A&M in 2005, Pennington pieced together a .263/.362/.358 line in nearly 2,200 minor league plate appearances. The switch-hitter displayed superb plate discipline (13.2 BB%) and he stole bases at a high-percentage clip (83.6%), but his lack of thump (.095 ISO) led to fears that he’d get the bat knocked out of his hands at the highest level.

So far, that hasn’t happened — Pennington’s got a career .325 wOBA and a 101 wRC+ in 672 big league PA. This season, the 26-year-old’s batting .264/.333/.392 and walking 9.4% of the time. Pennington will never be a power threat, but his .128 ISO is respectable. He has also nabbed 13 bags in 15 attempts, so he’s adding value once he reaches base. For the rest of 2010, ZiPS projects a .260/.331/.362 line. CHONE is less optimistic, at .246/.328/.344.

It’s probably too early to comment on Pennington’s defensive prowess, as he rates poorly by UZR (-7.5 runs per 150 defensive games during his career) and about average according to Total Zone. He might slide over to second long-term, where he’d still have to compete with Jemile Weeks (if Weeks can stay healthy), among others. But for now, Pennington’s good eye and speed make him an option in AL-only leagues.

It’s been a long time since we’ve updated the outfielders – moving across country will do that to you. While I struggled with boxes and furniture, injuries and mediocre play have done some serious damage at the top of the tier.

The Top Options:
Ryan Braun, Milwaukee (.361 wOBA, .385 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Matt Kemp, Los Angeles NL (.339 wOBA, .364 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Josh Hamilton, Texas (.435 wOBA, .390 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Nelson Cruz, Texas (.400 wOBA, .383 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Justin Upton, Arizona (.344 wOBA, .376 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Carl Crawford, Tampa Bay (.395 wOBA, .365 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Matt Holliday, St. Louis (.389 wOBA, .400 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Alex Rios, Chicago White Sox (.377 wOBA, .356 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Carlos Gonzalez, Colorado (.373 wOBA, .357 ZiPs RoS wOBA)

This may upset some people, but it’s just hard to separate out an elite sub-set of outfielders right now. Ryan Braun, Matt Kemp and Justin Upton certainly have the upside to go on a tear and make this ranking seem silly, but right now they just aren’t showing it. They may even need to go on a tear just to get to the lower end of their preseason projections. Another way to spin this is that there are a lot of really nice outfielders. Everyone in this tier, all the way down to Carlos Gonzalez can give you positive value in all five fantasy categories. Upton’s strikeout rate might mean that his batting average will sink him out of this tier, but he’s also shown lower strikeout rates and higher batting averages in the past, so let’s not count him out yet.

There’s Nothing Wrong With…
Ichiro Suzuki, Seattle (.351 wOBA, .354 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Torii Hunter, Los Angeles (.381 wOBA, .374 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Andre Ethier, Los Angeles NL (.399 wOBA, .385 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Andrew McCutchen, Pittsburgh (.362 wOBA, .358 ZiPs RoS wOBA))
Jacoby Ellsbury, Boston (.279 wOBA, .346 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Shin-Soo Choo, Cleveland (.382 wOBA, .378 ZiPs RoS wOBA)

Although this tier is headed up by a couple of veterans, it’s the young speedsters that have the better chance of moving up the ladder. Ichiro! will give you the batting average, but the rest of his line looks a little too much like Denard Span’s to award him first-tier status, and it’s McCutchen that might soon put up Crawford-like numbers to advance tiers. Torii Hunter has power and speed, but it’s a healthy Shin-Soo Choo that has the stronger batting average, so therefore more upside.

Not Quite Five-Category Performers
Jayson Werth, Philadelphia (.377 wOBA, .385 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Brett Gardner, New York AL (.371 wOBA, .334 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Adam Dunn, Washington (.403 wOBA, .400 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Manny Ramirez, Los Angeles NL (.426 wOBA, .413 ZiPs RoS wOBA)

This is the group that provides OF1-like production in deeper leagues, but they’d make a shallow mixed league roster look a little wonky. Brett Gardner and Jayson Werth are the risers here, but Adam Dunn belongs even with his batting average. Manny Ramirez may just fall another tier, especially if he’s out much longer after the break. He’s still good when he’s in, though.

Upside to Join the Top
Curtis Granderson, New York AL (.321 wOBA, .346 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Colby Rasmus, St. Louis (.388 wOBA, .347 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Jason Bay, New York NL (.349 wOBA, .375 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Nick Markakis, Baltimore (.373 wOBA, .374 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Carlos Quentin, Chicago (.363 wOBA, .362 ZiPs RoS wOBA)

Colby Rasmus fans will hem and haw, but they might want to check the rest-of-season projections for Curtis Granderson before they get too heated up. They both have some platoon issues (Granderson’s are more pronounced), both don’t have great batting averages, and both have great power and speed. Oh, and this space feels a little vindicated by Carlos Quentin’s recent hot streak, which has shown that he still has much power, even if the batting average is a problem. The BABIP is so low that with additional regression even the batting average might be nice for the second half.

A depressing season in Cleveland got considerably worse with the news that RF Shin-Soo Choo suffered a right thumb sprain diving for a ball against the Oakland A’s on Friday night. According to MLB.com’s John Barone, Choo’s bum thumb might require surgery, and the soon-to-be-28-year-old could be out until September. The covert star, ranking among the top 25 position players with 2.9 WAR, leaves behind a .286/.390/.475 line and a .383 wOBA.

With Choo on the shelf, the Indians recalled OF Michael Brantley from Triple-A Columbus. The PTBNL in the 2008 CC Sabathia swap will slide into the leadoff spot and patrol center field for the Tribe. Brantley, 23, possesses two traits that make him intriguing to fantasy owners — he owns the zone and he’s got great wheels.

Since making his full-season debut in 2006, the lefty batter has worked pitchers for walks, avoided whiffs and has stolen bases at a high percentage clip. Brantley batted .313/.406/.377 in 690 A-Ball plate appearances, drawing ball four 13.3% of the time, striking out 12.6% and swiping bags at a 76.4% success rate. At the Double-A Level, Mickey Brantley’s son hit .298/.382/.366 in 702 PA, with an 11.3 BB%, a 8.6 K% and an 80.4% rate of SB success. Over the past two years at Triple-A, Brantley’s got a .284/.364/.377 slash, while walking 10.9%, punching out 10.7% and coming up safe 85.1% of the time that he attempts a steal.

However, the 6-2, 200 pound Brantley rarely drives the ball — his Isolated power was .064 in A-Ball, .068 in Double-A and .093 in Triple-A. Before the 2010 season, Baseball America said that Brantley “doesn’t use his legs much in his swing,” but claimed that more pop could come if he learns to leverage his lower half when he takes a cut.

What can we expect from Brantley now that he’s back in the big leagues? He has a .270/.321/.304 line and a .278 wOBA in very limited playing time (161 PA) over the past two seasons. Brantley’s got a .276/.343/.357 rest-of-season ZiPS projection, with a .324 wOBA. CHONE has a .277/.347/.377 projection for the remainder of the 2010 season. Per Minor League Splits, Brantley’s work with the Clippers this season translates to a .294/.356/.370 showing in the majors.

Equipped with excellent strike zone awareness as well as speed that translates into production on the bases and in the field, Brantley is well worth a pickup in AL-only leagues. The biggest question he’ll have to answer is, can he at least occasionally drive the ball to keep pitchers from pounding the zone against him? If the worst possible outcome for the opposition is a single that skirts by the third baseman, Brantley’s impressive minor league walk rates might not come with him to the show.

Brantley’s recall also leaves Austin Kearns, Trevor Crowe and Shelley Duncan competing for two starting spots on most nights. Kearns has experienced something of a rebound after two lifeless, injury-marred seasons — he’s hitting .271/.354/.417 and has a .344 wOBA. The former Red and National could be trade bait this month. Crowe, 26, has done little to inspire confidence over the past two years. The 2005 first-round pick out of Arizona has a .245/.294/.337 line in 407 PA in 2009 and 2010, showing little in the way of secondary skills (6.1 BB%, .092 ISO). A long-time minor league slugger with the Yankees, Duncan has the best offensive projections among these three…

…but he’s also a 6-foot-5 leviathan projected to be a brutal defender by CHONE (-6 runs for the rest of the year; Kearns comes in at average in a corner spot and Crowe has a +4 rating). It’s doubtful that any of the three have significant fantasy value.

Even after last night’s 2-for-6 performance against the Arizona Diamondbacks, which included an opposite field homer hit off Rodrigo Lopez, Matt Kemp is falling short of expectations. His defensive struggles have been well documented, but he’s also having a mild season at the plate. Prior to 2010, ZiPS projected Kemp to bat .300/.354/.501 and post a .374 wOBA. CHONE predicted a .305/.358/.501 line and a .376 wOBA. Instead, L.A.’s center fielder holds a .265/.324/.473 triple-slash, with a .337 wOBA. Why has Kemp’s lumber been lacking?

Despite the downturn in his slash stats, there are some positives to be found. Before the season began, I highlighted Kemp’s offensive maturation. Kemp gradually displayed better plate discipline, upping his walk rate each season from 2007-2009. That trend has continued, as he’s walking 8.2% of the time in 2010. The 25-year-old isn’t chasing pitches out of the zone near as much as he used to:

In addition to showing better patience, Kemp is hitting for plenty of power — his ISO is a career-best .208, and his 16.5% home run per fly ball rate is his highest mark since his first brief stint in the majors back in 2006.

So, Kemp’s secondary skills are better than ever. Why, then, is his line lethargic? He is punching out 28.4% of the time, his highest figure since ’06. Kemp’s not making as much contact on in-zone pitches this season — his Z-Contact rate is 77.8%. It’s true that Kemp’s in-zone contact rate has always been below the 88% big league average, but his 2010 rate comes in below even his 81.8% career average.

Also, Kemp’s BABIP is .321 this year. For reference, his career BABIP is .355, and CHONE (.359 pre-season BABIP projection) and ZiPS (.361) thought he’d post a BABIP around that mark. Kemp’s rate of hits on balls put in play has varied wildly over the course of his career, while his underlying skill set hasn’t changed much. Here are his BABIP figures from 2006-2010, compared to his expected BABIP totals. xBABIP is based on a hitter’s rate of home runs, K’s, stolen bases, line drives, fly balls, pop ups and ground balls.

Kemp’s actual BABIP is 13 points lower than his xBABIP this season. It’s worth noting again that the simple xBABIP tool linked to above uses stolen bases as a measure of a player’s speed. Speed has a positive correlation with BABIP. That could work against Kemp this season — after being an adept base thief in 2008 and 2009, his SB performance has been terrible so far.

The two previous seasons, Kemp was an asset to fantasy owners in the stolen base department. In 2008, Kemp swiped 35 bases and got caught stealing 11 times, a 76.1% success rate. He then stole 34 bases in 42 tries last year (81% success rate). In 2010, he has 10 steals and 10 CS apiece.

Baseball Prospectus’ base running stats tell the story. Here are Kemp’s Equivalent Stolen Base Run totals over the years, showing how many runs he has added on SB attempts compared to the average player. I also included his overall Equivalent Base Running Runs figure — in addition to SB tries, this all-encompassing number includes base running advances on ground and fly ball outs, hits and other advancements on things such as passed balls and wild pitches. Kemp has cost the Dodgers on steals this year, while faring quite well in the other facets of base running:

It’s highly unlikely that Kemp has suddenly become a lousy base stealer. But the SB downturn, coupled with his defensive issues, is peculiar.

Matt Kemp has frustrated plenty of people this season, but there are plenty of reasons to expect improvement during the second half. He’s abstaining from junk pitches thrown out of the zone and displaying excellent power. His BABIP will likely climb, too. If he can put the bat on the ball more often on in-zone pitches and start sealing bases like he did in ’08 and ’09, Kemp should resume being a fantasy stalwart.

It’s a holiday weekend, and in the honor of National Lampoon and holiday/family misadventures everywhere, let’s lead this off with a song and a couple of players that might help fantasy owners on the run:

Trevor Hoffman, Milwaukee Brewers (37% owned)
Trolling for saves is no exact science. We’ve tried using strikeout rates, walk rates, leverage index, ‘thinking stupid,’ and even fingers in the wind to predict closers in the past. Put this post in the latter category. John Axford has done nothing wrong – well, not quite nothing, he does own a 4.50 walk rate that might make sustaining his current performance level difficult, especially if it starts to approach his higher walk rates of the past – but sometimes doing nothing wrong is not good enough. Even though he hasn’t blown a save yet, and is probably the future at the position for Milwaukee, there’s the little matter of the former closer behind him. Not only has Hoffman turned in eight straight innings with only one run surrendered, but he’s also only four saves short of 600. Milwaukee might turn to the Hoff to boost late-season attendance in his run at glory. Stranger things have happened, and Axford owners at the very least should pick up the legendary change-piecer.

Dexter Fowler, Colorado Rockies (5% owned)
Sometimes you just have to keep plucking that chicken. About a month ago, we recommended Fowler in this space, and he promptly sucked for a while and was sent down. Well, at least he raked… in AAA. In 124 plate appearances, he put up a .340/.435/.566 that showed his team that he had little to figure out in the minor leagues. He’s still a member of one of the more crowded houses in the league, as Seth Smith, Ryan Spilborghs, Carlos Gonzalez and Brad Hawpe are all are above-average hitters. Fowler is strong against lefties, though, and in a worst-case scenario, he’ll be a caddy for Smith against lefties. However, Todd Helton has lost all his power (.066 ISO) and is a terrible offensive first baseman right now. The team might best be served (even defensively) by putting Hawpe at first many days, which would open up more at-bats for Fowler. In any case, Fowler has been up and has been playing. He’s played in every game since he’s come back up, and was six for his last eight. Guess finally trying out AAA for the first time did him some good. With his five-tool upside, he’s worth a flier in deeper leagues for sure.

Seattle Mariners acquired 1B/DH Russell Branyan from the Cleveland Indians for OF Ezequiel Carrera and SS Juan Diaz. Cleveland will either pay what’s left of Branyan’s $2 million salary or send the M’s a PTBNL.

Branyan wasn’t acquired as part of some last-ditch effort to climb back into the AL West race — the Mariners are 14 games back of Texas and have a 0.2 percent chance of making the playoffs, according to CoolStandings.com. Rather, Seattle brought the 34-year-old slugger back, in GM Jack Zduriencik’s words, “to give our team every opportunity to be as productive as possible this season, while not harming the long-term plan for the franchise.” Collectively, Mariners first basemen have a major league-worst .260 wOBA in 2010.

Last year, Branyan turned in the best season of his career in the Pacific Northwest. Getting regular playing time, the lefty batter mashed to the tune of .251/.347/.520 in 505 plate appearances and compiled 2.8 WAR. His wOBA was .368, and his park-and-league-adjusted wOBA was 29 percent above average (129 wRC+). Unfortunately, a bulging disk in Branyan’s back ended his season in late August.

He signed a one-year deal with the Indians this past winter, with a $5 million mutual option for the 2011 season. Branyan began the year on the DL with continued back woes, but he has hit slightly above expectations since returning to the lineup in late April. He’s got a .263/.328/.491 line in 190 PA, with a .355 wOBA and a 122 wRC+ (CHONE and ZiPS both projected a .348 wOBA and a 113 wRC+ prior to the start of the season).

Now that Cleveland has said see you in another life, brotha to Branyan for a fourth time, first base is Matt LaPorta’s spot to lose. The seventh overall selection in the ’07 draft, LaPorta was supposed to be the Tribe’s big prize in the July 2008 CC Sabathia deal. However, LaPorta’s monstrous minor league line (.296/.390/.563, 10.7 BB%, .267 ISO) has given way to a disastrous .240/.301/.377 (.300 wOBA) showing in 300 big league PA over the 2009-2010 seasons. LaPorta was slowed by off-season surgeries on his left hip and left toe, but his power was MIA prior to an early June demotion to Columbus. His career ISO is .137.

It’s just 300 PA split over two years, so we shouldn’t let a half-season’s worth of trips to the plate serve as some definitive judgment of LaPorta’s abilities. Still, his rest-of-season ZiPS (.257/.329/.414, .331 wOBA) is thoroughly uninspiring. He’s in his mid-twenties and down the defensive spectrum. LaPorta will need to significantly outperform that projection to be a useful starter, much less a star.

In addition to giving an erstwhile top prospect a shot at redemption, shipping out Branyan netted the Indians Carrera and Diaz. Carrera, 23, was part of the December ’08 three-team extravaganza involving the Mets (his original club), M’s and Indians. The lithe lefty batter ranked as the 15th-best talent in the Mariners’ system prior to 2010, per Baseball America. The Venezuelan-born Carrera piqued the interest of prospect types last season by batting .337/.441/.416 in the Double-A Southern League. He didn’t show much power (.079 ISO), and his BABIP was .407. But even so, he worked the count very well (14.6 BB%) while earning praise for his center field defense.

Moved up to the Triple-A Pacific Coast League in 2010, Carrera has a .268/.339/.315 triple-slash in 243 PA. Perhaps with pitchers realizing that the worst outcome of giving Carrera a pitch in the zone is a seeing-eye single (.047 ISO), his walk rate has fallen to 8.2%. Odds are, Carrera carves out a career as an extra outfielder who can cover the gaps. His fantasy value might be zilch, though — while he swiped twenty-plus bags each season from 2006-2009, Carrera’s career SB success rate is just 68.9%.

Diaz, 21, is shortstop signed by the M’s out of the Dominican Republic in 2006. The 6-3, 180 pound switch-hitter has put together a .299/.347/.434 line at high-octane High Desert of the High-A California League over the past two years. He didn’t rate among Seattle’s top 30 prospects leading up to 2010.

Boston Red Sox acquired 2B/OF Eric Patterson from the Oakland Athletics for LHP Fabian Williamson.

Dustin Pedroia’s laser show is on hold for the time being — the second baseman fouled a Jonathan Sanchez fastball off his left foot in the third inning of Friday’s contest against the San Francisco Giants. Pedroia suffered a fracture, and while there’s no firm timetable for a return, early estimates have him missing up to six weeks.

Jed Lowrie (mononucleosis) is on the DL, as is Double-A shortstop prospect Jose Iglesias (bruised hand). Saber favorite Tug Hulett has sunk with the PawSox this season (.168/.293/.302 in 241 PA). Recently recalled Angel Sanchez rates well with the leather according to Total Zone, but he’s a career .279/.334/.351 minor league hitter. As such, the Sox could give Patterson a spin at second (along with Bill Hall) as Pedroia heals.

Patterson, 27, was originally a Cubs prospect taken out of Georgia Tech in the eighth round of the 2004 draft. In July of 2008, Patterson was shipped to Oakland (along with Josh Donaldson, Sean Gallagher and Matt Murton) for Rich Harden and Chad Gaudin. The lefty hitter holds a career .303/.368/.478 triple-slash in 2,570 career minor league plate appearances. Displaying decent pop (.175 Isolated Power) and adequate strike zone control (9.3 BB%, 19.3 K%), Patterson also stole bases with an 80.6% success rate.

In the majors, Patterson’s got a career .224/.301/.340 line in 378 PA, with a .300 wOBA. Corey’s little brother has walked 10.1% of the time, whiffed 28.4% and has a .116 ISO. He has nabbed bases at a 91.7% clip, with 22 SB in 24 tries. Out of minor league options, Patterson made Oakland’s roster out of spring training but was recently DFA’d to make room for Coco Crisp. ZiPS projects that Patterson will hit .248/.310/.399 for the rest of 2010, with a .320 wOBA. CHONE thinks he’ll bat .261/.322/.411.

Patterson figures to be a slightly below-average MLB hitter who can add some value on the bases. That’s not a bad fill-in for the Sox on such short notice, if he can cut it at second. Patterson, who has big league experience at the keystone and in the outfield, rated as above-average at second in the minors according the Total Zone. His scouting reports in years past were less flattering, however. In its 2008 Prospect Handbook, Baseball America lamented that “despite his athleticism, Patterson has never gotten the hang of playing second base. He doesn’t read balls well off the bat or range well to his right.”

Given his stolen base chops and non-terrible bat, Patterson’s worth a temporary pick-up in AL-only leagues.

Going to the A’s in exchange for Patterson is Williamson, a 21-year-old lefty who is joining his third organization. The 6-2, 175 pounder was acquired by Boston from the Seattle Mariners for David Aardsma prior to the 2009 season. Equipped with a quality curve/changeup combo but sitting in the high-80’s with his heater, Williamson didn’t crack the Sox’ top 30 prospect list this past winter.

Pitching in the Low-A South Atlantic League last season, he had 8.7 K/9, 4.4 BB/9, a 37.9 GB% and a park-and-luck-adjusted FIP of 4.37 in 108 innings. Williamson split ’09 between the rotation and the bullpen (16 ‘pen appearances, 12 starts), but he has been a full-time starter in the High-A Carolina League in 2010. On the positive side, his ground ball rate has climbed considerably (54.5 GB%). However, he’s also whiffing 5.5 and walking 4.7 in 65.1 innings, with a 5.05 park-and-luck-adjusted FIP.

Carlos Guillen, Tigers (Owned in 10% of Yahoo leagues)

Guillen endured an injury-plagued 2009 season, missing a huge chunk of time from early May to late July with a left shoulder ailment. His line — .242/.339/.419 in 322 PA, with a .328 wOBA — combined with increasing fragility and a gradual slide down the defensive spectrum led many owners to write off the switch-hitter as over the hill.

Apparently, someone forgot to tell Guillen that he’s toast. That ’09 triple-slash was misleading, as his strong secondary skills (12.1 BB%, .177 Isolated Power) were obscured by a .263 BABIP. Guillen’s expected BABIP was .322. Injury has slowed Guillen again this season (a left hamstring strain that DL’d him from late April to late May), but his BABIP has bounced back to .309, and he’s batting .283/.337/.461 in 166 PA.

The former Astros prospect and Mariner has been unusually aggressive at the dish, hacking at 34.3% of pitches thrown out of the strike zone (28.4% MLB average). That explains why he’s walking 7.8% of the time. But Guillen’s hitting with the same power as in ’09 (.178 ISO), and he has become a much more intriguing fantasy option with a move back up the defensive ladder — he’s manning the keystone spot for the Tigers. As a 34-year-old with a history of knee, hamstring, back and shoulder maladies, Guillen’s no sure thing. But a guy with a .278/.353/.459 rest-of-season ZiPS and position eligibility in the outfield and at second base is worth a roster spot.

Dallas Braden, Athletics (41%)

A 24th-round pick out of Texas Tech in the ’04 draft, Braden has achieved some level of fame by telling Alex Rodriguez to get off his mound and then twirling a perfect game against the Tampa Bay Rays on May 9th. He remains on the wire in most fantasy leagues, though, despite showing considerable improvement.

In 2009, Braden posted a 3.89 ERA in 136.2 innings before a nerve injury in his left foot ended his season in late July. His peripherals suggested he pitched more like a high-four’s ERA starter, however — with 5.33 K/9, 2.77 BB/9 and a very low ground ball rate (36.4 GB%), Braden had a 4.80 xFIP. While fewer fly balls become dingers at the Coliseum than most other parks (a HR/FB park factor of 92 from 2006-2009), Braden’s 4.7 HR/FB% looked primed to climb.

It has — Dallas is allowing homers on nine percent of fly balls hit against him. Yet his ERA is actually slightly lower, at 3.83. Unlike in 2009, Braden has done more to earn that mark. Tossing 94 frames so far, the 26-year-old lefty has struck out 5.55 batters per nine innings, walked just 1.53 per nine and has increased his ground ball rate to 42.4%. The result of Braden’s improved control and more neutral GB rate is a 4.06 xFIP. He’s never going to miss bats in the majors at anywhere near the insane clip that he did on the farm, but he’s more than an A-Rod agitator who had his 15 minutes of fame in May — Braden’s an above-average starter.

When the Seattle Mariners acquired Milton Bradley from the Chicago Cubs for RHP Carlos Silva over the winter, most thought the M’s had stolen a high-OBP hitter with decent pop for a washed up starter with a bum shoulder. Yet, it’s Bradley who’s looking like the scrub so far — while a back-from-the-dead Silva has racked up 1.6 WAR, Milton is mired in a deep offensive funk and has -0.2 WAR in 2010.

No one expected Bradley the replicate his feats of strength over the 2007 and 2008 seasons, when he posted a .417 wOBA and a park-and-league-adjusted wOBA 58 percent better than average (158 wRC+). But both CHONE and ZiPS figured he’d top his 2009 numbers produced as a Cub (.257/.378/.397, .345 wOBA, 108 wRC+). CHONE thought he’d bat .262/.368/.427, upping his wOBA to .353 and his wRC+ to 117. ZiPS projected a .254/.371/.421 line, with a .355 wOBA and a 118 wRC+.

Suffice it to say, Bradley’s bat is falling well short of those expectations. In 205 plate appearances, the switch-hitter has a feeble .207/.299/.346 triple-slash and a .291 wOBA. Safeco Field saps offense, suppressing runs by six percent and homers by seven percent compared to a neutral park from 2007-2009 (per the Bill James Handbook). But even so, Bradley’s offensive has been, well, offensive — his wRC+ is 80.

The first thing most will point to regarding the 32-year-old’s numbers is his .263 BABIP. And he has been unlucky to an extent — Bradley’s expected BABIP is .303. That’s still below his .319 career BABIP, as well as his BABIP projections from CHONE (.318) and ZiPS (.309).

Why’s that? Bradley’s batted ball distribution is different this season, and the change has not been positive. He’s hitting fewer ground balls and more fly balls than usual, with a 35.5 GB% (42.9 GB% from 2007-2009) and a 45.5 FB% (35.7 FB% from ’07 to ’09). Those extra fly balls are weakly hit, as Bradley’s infield/fly ball rate has spiked to 18.2% (8.4 IF/FB% from ’07 to ’09, 7-8% MLB average). Infield flies are basically automatic outs, so the increase in pop ups helps explain the low BABIP.

In addition to hitting the ball up the elevator shaft often, Bradley’s not controlling the strike zone quite as well as he usually does. While still patient, he’s chasing more pitches out of the strike zone (relative to the MLB average):

The extra swings on off-the-plate pitches contribute to his lower-than-projected walk rate of 10.2% (12.8 BB% from CHONE, 14.5 BB% from ZiPS).

On pitches within the zone, Bradley’s coming up empty at the highest rate of his career. His Z-Contact% is 81.4. For reference, his Z-Contact over the 2007-2009 seasons was 82.6%, and the MLB average is about 88%. His overall contact rate is 73.8% (75.8% from ’07 to ’09, 81% MLB average). In addition to making less contact, Milton’s getting caught looking often. According to StatCorner, Bradley’s percentage of PA ending in a called strikeout is 9.3% this season, while the MLB average is 4.5% and his 2007-2009 rate was in the six percent range. Not surprisingly, his K rate is a career-high 31.3%. Whiffs aren’t the end of the world for a hitter who works deep counts and makes things happen when he does put the ball in play, but it’s been a while since Bradley displayed more than middling power — his ISO in 678 PA since the beginning of 2009 is .140.

Bradley should perform better in the months to come, particularly if he shows his trademark plate discipline and limits the pop ups. ZiPS projects a .240/.352/.390 line, with a .338 wOBA. It’s hard to be overly enthusiastic, though. Beside the ever-present injury risk associated with him, Bradley no longer comes with the promise of elite secondary skills — he’s a singles-and-doubles hitter in a park that smiles upon pitchers.

Acquired before the 2009 season for Edwin Jackson, Matt Joyce has accumulated just 37 PA with the Rays despite posting a .355 wOBA in 277 PA with the Tigers the year before the trade. Part of that has been because of an elbow issue this season, and part of it has to do with his generally underwhelming big league performance last year (.329 wOBA).

The 25-year-old Joyce has crushed Triple-A pitching in the interim, hitting .273/.373/.482 with 35 doubles, 16 homers, and 14 steals in 493 plate appearances last year. Once he got over the elbow woes, he put up a stout .314/.458/.545 batting line in just over a month’s worth of games in the bush leagues. Carl Crawford’s sore shoulder necessitated the addition of another outfielder, so up came Joyce and down went the supremely unproductive Dioner Navarro (.265 wOBA since the start of ’09).

CHONE projected a rather pedestrian .239/.325/.422 batting line from Joyce in 393 AB before the season, though that came with 15 homers and five steals. It’s not too difficult to see him outperforming that AVG, and the bat really isn’t the question. The playing time is.

Tampa enjoys perhaps more roster flexibility than any other team. Ben Zobrist can quite literally play anywhere. Willy Aybar has spent a bunch of time at DH this year, but he can handle the three non-shortstop infield positions with aplomb. Reid Brignac plays both middle infield spots, ditto Sean Rodriguez. The latter has also spent a bunch of time in centerfield this year. Depending on who’s banged up or who the opposing starter is or who’s swinging the bat well, Joe Maddon has plenty of options when filling out his lineup card.

Joyce figures to get regular at-bats for the time being, though that depends entirely on the severity of Crawford’s injury. Lefty masher Gabe Kapler is on the shelf with a hip issue, making a straight platoon unlikely for now. Hank Blalock has been having a devil of a time since being called up (.306 wOBA), so there’s a chance Joyce could steal some at-bats from him, especially with the three catcher situation dissolved and the need for one of John Jaso and Kelly Shoppach to be on the bench as the backup.

I definitely like Joyce for fantasy purposes given his potential for double digit homers and double digit steals (over a full season), even more so in OBP leagues. There are definitely worse options over there for 4th OF/2nd UTIL spots, and you know if Joyce produces, Maddon will give him playing time even after Crawford and Kapler return. The playing time isn’t really a concern in that he might be benched for weeks at a time, it’s just unpredictable. That could all be sorted out by next week, though. I love Joyce in AL only leagues and deep mixed leagues, though you can afford to wait a bit before pouncing in a normal 12-teamer. He’s available in pretty much every Yahoo! league, at the moment.