In honor of the outfield post that I should have done yesterday, here are a couple of deep league outfielders worth talking about today, this fine day.

Mitch Maier, Kansas City (1% owned)
Maier is really most interesting because, with the dearth of options on the deep league waiver wire, he’s an everyday layer that doesn’t completely suck. He really doesn’t have any power, though, as his .092 career ISO suggests. Oh, it might find its way to league average (.147 this year), if only because his minor league slugging numbers were a little better, but it won’t ever be on the level that you’d expect from an outfielder. If you’re owning him for steals, he did steal 99 in the minor leagues… in 687 games. Since 2005, his full-season high was 16 steals, and his speed scores haven’t topped 6.0 at any level since 2006. Maier should be able to put up a decent batting average to pair with his OBP, though. He’s walking 10.3% of the time and only striking out 17.9% of the time. His batting average right now is neutral when it comes to batted ball luck (.314 BABIP), and there’s a chance he betters that number.

Chris Heisey, Cincinnati (1% owned)
Of these two players, Heisey is the riskier one, yet he also owns the better upside. He’s got a tougher playing time situation, since Drew Stubbs was the former center fielder of the future, and Chris Dickerson is finally healthy and played regularly at the end of last year. On the other hand, Stubbs can’t stop whiffing, and Dickerson has some problems against left-handers – there is daylight here, and Heisey has started six straight. Heisey has been the beneficiary of some luck (.354 BABIP) and a strikeout rate (27.6%) that could portend a dropping batting average in the future. He had nice batting averages in the minors (.296 career), and his strikeout rates hovered around 15%, so maybe he’ll whiff a little bit less in the future to offset the dropping BABIP. The power looks like it will be above-average, as his ISO was close to .200 over the last two years at Double-A and Triple-A. He adds speed to the package, with 88 steals in 476 career minor league games, and a nice 20/20 season on his resume. The riskier pick here will give you better dividends if he can hold on to the job. Total Zone had him as an above-average center fielder in the minor leagues, though – he shouldn’t lose the job because of the defense, it seems.

After the post-deadline frenzy, here are some possible names on our wire that might help. We’ll try to hit one player each for leagues of differing depths to maximize our utility here.

Ryan Ludwick, Padres (67% owned)
Ludwick left the Cardinals and suddenly hit waiver wires for no good reason. I’m guessing it’s being blamed on the change in parks and lineups, but neither of those is a strong enough reason to leave a good platoon bat on the waiver wire. For one, the Cardinals have only scored 19 runs more than the Padres this year – surprising, no? Another surprising fact is that the park factor for righties in Petco is not as terrible as you might think. Though it’s a nasty 59 for left-handers, righties still manage a 92 park factor for home runs in the park. Guess what the park factor in St. Louis was for right-handed batters. Yeah, 73. So Ludwick may get a boost in home run production, might have a couple fewer ducks on the pond – this doesn’t sound like an epitaph because it isn’t one. ZiPs RoS calls for his OPS to surge from a decent .827 to a much nicer .914, and I believe it. I’ll take Ludwick as my final outfielder, thank you very much.

Jake Westbrook, Cardinals (7% owned)
Instead of trying to give sand to Dave Duncan and asking for a sandwich, it seems the team has finally given him something nice to work with. Westbrook fits right inside Duncan’s wheelhouse as a groundballer (58.9% career) that relies on control (2.79 BB/9 career) and has a mediocre strikeout rate (4.96 K/9 career). He even is using his cutter a lot this year (12.9%)! Maybe getting rid of Ludwick to acquire Westbrook didn’t make a lot of sense, but this pitcher, in this park, with this pitching coach – that makes a lot of sense. It’s not magic, it’s just a good marriage. He’ll get a few more wins with that offense behind him, and he’ll probably pitch close to his lifetime xFIP (4.02) given the fact that the number was accrued in the more difficult league.

Kila Ka’aihue, Royals (1% owned)
It must be August if we’re touting a player that hasn’t started since he was called up, doesn’t have the backing of his organization, and grounded into a game-ending double play in his only major league at-bat of the past three months. Huzzah. The thing is, Ka’aihue has some skills – and an apostrophe – that argue in his favor. A 16% walk rate in the minor leagues is actually an elite skill, even. The power is suspect – he had a career .194 ISO in the minors which isn’t what you’d expect from your first baseman – and there’s the rub when it comes to the lack of at-bats, belief from the home club, and fantasy ownership. But this is a team that doesn’t currently have a left-fielder listed on their depth chart and is running Jose Guillen out there every day at designated hitter. Perhaps they can find room for a guy that will get on base, put up a decent batting average, and maybe run into a few homers along the way. It’s not like Gregor Blanco will do any better despite his .300 batting average.

Ownership numbers provided by Yahoo Fantasy Baseball.

According to Tom Krasovic of AOL Fanhouse, the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim will call up OF Peter Bourjos from Triple-A Salt Lake. Bourjos might not crack the lineup on a regular basis, but let’s take a look at his long-term fantasy value.

Bourjos, 23, was selected in the tenth round of the 2005 amateur draft. The Arizona prep product intrigued scouts with his scorching speed and ability to cover wide swaths of territory, and the Angels opened up the check book to give him an above-slot $325,000 signing bonus. Bourjos batted .292/.354/.472 in 279 Pioneer League plate appearances during his ’06 pro debut, stealing 13 bases and getting caught five times. Following the season, Baseball America called him an “easy, graceful runner” and said he had more power than his 6-1, 180 pound frame suggested, but BA also called his strike-zone control “crude.”

Unfortunately, Bourjos wouldn’t get a full season’s worth of reps in 2007 to work out the kinks in his plate discipline. The righty batter suffered a left hand injury that he initially tried to play through, but he finally gave in and had surgery to repair a ruptured ligament in May. In 270 PA in the Low-A Midwest League, Bourjos put up a .274/.335/.426 line, with a 7.4% walk rate, a 22.4 K% and a .152 ISO. He nabbed 19 bases, though he was caught stealing nine times as well. Talent evaluators continued to question whether Bourjos’ bat would play at the upper levels of the minors. “His approach,” BA said, “vacillates from at-bat to at-bat, he’s busy in his setup and he often lacks balance through his swing.”

The next season, Bourjos was bumped up to the High-A California League. He hit .295/.326/.444 in 545 PA, and he was a monster on the base paths (50-for-60 in SB attempts, good for an 83.3% success rate). Bourjos just about never walked (3.5 BB%), while K’ing 18.9% and posting a .149 ISO. The Cal League is a great place to hit, so Bourjos’ park-and-luck-adjusted line was a little less impressive at .280/.311/.429. While again praising Bourjos’ plus defense and base-stealing talents, BA said:

There are still questions about Bourjos’ bat. He has a funky swing and tough he showed improvement, he still chases pitches out of the zone and rarely walks. He’ll need to show a much more patient approach to realize his potential as a leadoff hitter.

In 2009, Bourjos made some strides in terms of not getting himself out. The speedster slashed .281/.354/.423 in 504 Double-A Texas League PA, drawing ball four 9.7%, whiffing 17.6% and compiling a .142 ISO. On the bases, he was 32-for-44 (a 72.3% success rate). A ligament tear in his left wrist necessitated off-season surgery, but that didn’t put much of a damper on a season in which he progressed at the plate. Baseball America was most enthusiastic about Bourjos’ prospect status, ranking him #97 on the publication’s top 100 list. John Sickels graded him as a B- talent. Bourjos didn’t make Keith Law’s top 100.

At Salt Lake of the Triple-A Pacific Coast League, Bourjos has hit .314/.364/.498 in 455 PA, with 27 SB in 32 tries. His park-and-luck adjusted line, by contrast, is .289/.341/.467. Those strike zone gains didn’t make the trip with him to the PCL, as Bourjos as a 5.3 BB%. He has struck out 18.9% and has a .184 ISO, the product of lots of triples (twelve) and a park-aided 13 home runs.

Chances are, Bourjos would struggle mightily if given everyday ABs in the big leagues. His major league equivalent line is .255/.294/.401 according to Minor League Splits, and CHONE projects him for a .255/.300/.375 showing. It’s worth noting, however, that Sean Smith’s Total Zone adores Bourjos’ defense. That could come into play, considering the Angels’ outfielders have been a collective 18 runs below average, according to Ultimate Zone Rating.

Bourjos isn’t likely to have much fantasy value right now. His wheels make him attractive to fantasy owners in the long-term, and his run-saving D gives him a good chance to carve out a starting role in the not-too-distant future. It’d surely be appreciated, though, if he could stop hacking so much.

Injury-ravaged and forced to rely upon the likes of Jeremy Hermida and Darnell McDonald, the Boston Red Sox outfield hasn’t stood out at the plate. Sox fly catchers have a collective .332 wOBA, fifth in the American League. Jacoby Ellsbury (ribs) has logged all of 45 plate appearances this season, while Mike Cameron (abdomen) also spent significant time on the DL. Ellsbury’s due back soon, and Cameron has been back in the fray for a while. But Boston decided to give Ryan Kalish a promotion yesterday, calling up the top prospect and DFA’ing Hermida.

A New Jersey prep product, Kalish was drafted in the ninth round back in 2006. The two-way player also starred on the grid iron and the hard court, and BA passed along a Chuck Norris Facts-esque tidbit that Kalish didn’t swing and miss at a single pitch as a high school senior. Though the athletic lefty batter had a strong commitment to the University of Virginia, the Sox coaxed him into turning pro with a $600,000 signing bonus.

Kalish didn’t take the field much in 2006 and 2007 — he signed August of ’06 for that above-slot bonus, then suffered a broken hamate bone in his right wrist on a HBP in July of ’07. The injury required surgery that September. Still, Kalish impressed, hitting .317/.406/.472 in 161 PA spent mostly in the New York-Penn League while stealing 20 bases in 23 attempts. BA commended his advanced plate discipline for a young, inexperienced farm talent, while also calling him a plus runner and throwing out a J.D. Drew comp.

In 2008, Kalish began the year rehabbing in extended spring training. After that, he spent most of the season in the low-A South Atlantic League while earning a promotion to High-A California League late in the year. He posted a .273/.365/.363 combined line in 502 PA, displaying keen strike zone awareness (12.2 BB%), K’ing 22.9% and rarely driving the ball (.090 ISO). That ’08 wrist injury played a prominent role in the lack of thump — BA said he “didn’t turn the bat loose like he had in the past, which had a pronounced effect on his power.” On the base paths, Kalish was successful in 19 of 23 tries.

Two-thousand nine would prove to be the 6-1, 205 pounder’s breakout year. In 580 PA divided between the High-A Carolina League and the Double-A Eastern League, Kalish batted .279/.364/.457. He stayed selective at the plate (11.7 BB%), but also sliced his strikeout rate slightly (21.1 K%) and hit with more authority (.178 ISO). Kalish was a high-percentage base stealer, too, with 21 SB in 27 attempts.

Kalish entered 2010 as the 96th-best prospect in the game according to Baseball America. John Sickels graded him as a B prospect, and ESPN’s Keith Law placed the 22-year-old 86th on his personal top 100 list. Law noted positive changes in Kalish’s swing since he signed with the club:

The Red Sox had to do a lot of work to help him find a consistent swing. Unfortunately, he had to do that work while recovering hand and wrist strength after the injury. He’s become a lot stronger since then, and his pitch recognition has also improved. The drift in his swing that affected his output in high school is gone, with much better weight transfer and good hip rotation, so while he’s not the quick, athletic teenager the Red Sox signed, he’s now a more polished overall hitter who’s already coming into some power and may add more.

Since then, Kalish has only improved his prospect standing. Starting the season back in Portland and then earning a call-up to Triple-A Pawtucket of the International League, Kalish has a .294/.382/.502 triple-slash in 343 PA. Patience (12.2 BB%), contact (18.1 K%), power (.208 ISO), speed (25 for 28 in SBs) — he has shown it all.

Kalish doesn’t have mammoth pop, and he’s now considered above-average in the speed department rather than a true burner (BA calls him a 55 runner on the 20-to-80 scouting scale). But he possesses an exceptionally well-rounded skill-set that makes him someone to target in keeper leagues. As for the present, it’s hard to say how prominent he is in the Red Sox’ plans. Will Ellsbury be 100% when he returns? Is Cameron only going to play semi-regularly as he continues to battle through injury problems of his own? It’s possible that there are enough open ABs there for Kalish to carve out a role. Keep an eye on how frequently Kalish cracks Boston’s lineup — he could be a nice late-season pickup.

With Ryan Ludwick headed to San Diego as part of a three-team swap that netted St. Louis Jake Westbrook, Jon Jay’s role with the Cards will expand. The 25-year-old’s big league career is off to a scorching start — in 130 plate appearances, Jay’s bat has already been worth +11 runs. What’s the Chief Justice’s fantasy value? Let’s take a look.

Jay was selected out of Miami in the second round of the 2006 amateur draft. At the time, Baseball America described the lefty hitter as “a classic tweener outfielder who doesn’t profile as an everyday player on a championship club.” BA lauded his plate approach, but lamented the lack of “leverage and loft” in his swing. Jay began his pro career in the Low-A Midwest League that summer, and he did what you’d expect a second-team All American to do against less experienced hurlers — he raked (.342/.416/.462 in 268 PA).

Unfortunately, Jay wouldn’t get much of a chance to build upon that robust beginning — in 2007, he hit the DL three times. Jay was shelved twice with a shoulder injury and also became a spectator due to a wrist ailment. His hitting suffered, as Jay put up a .265/.328/.387 line in 253 PA split between the High-A Florida State League and the Double-A Texas League. He walked in 6.3% of his PA, while striking out 19.6% and posting a .122 ISO. BA noted that scouts were skeptical about his ability to hit at the upper levels of the minors, disliking his “quirky hand pumps and bat waggles at the plate.”

The next season, however, Jay’s prospect status recovered. In 491 PA spent mostly in the Texas League (he got a late-season promotion to the Triple-A Pacific Coast League), the Founding Father batted .312/.382/.463. Jay’s walk rate climbed to a decent 9.2%, whiffing 13% and improving his ISO to 151. He returned to the PCL in 2009, where hit slashed .281/.338/.394 in 564 PA. Prior to getting the big league call-up in late April, Jay hit .321/.394/.491 in 191 PCL PA. His overall line in 819 PA at the Triple-A level is .295/.356/.424, with a seven percent rate of free passes taken, a 13.2 K% and a .129 ISO.

Jay’s got a smoldering .382/.433/.583 big league line and a .425 wOBA, but it’s wise not to get overly excited. Putting aside that more than 43% of his balls put in play have fallen for hits so far, Jay’s minor league track record isn’t all that distinguished. He’s not especially patient at the dish, and as his .131 league ISO and near-50% ground ball rate on the farm suggest, his power potential is limited. With St. Louis, he might eventually end up platooned with Allen Craig — Jay’s career line against lefties in the minors is .259/.336/.349 (Craig’s is .303/.358/.542).

That’s not to say that Jay is without his uses, as Sean Smith’s Total Zone suggests Jay would be a plus defender in an outfielder corner, and CHONE projects that he’ll hit .288/.347/.425 in the majors. For fantasy purposes, Jay looks more like a solid major leaguer who’ll need a caddy against same-handed pitching than a breakout star.

Power. Patience. Speed. During the course of his career, B.J. Upton has shown more tools than Home Depot. Those tools are the reason that the Rays selected him with the second overall pick in the 2002 draft, and they’re what allowed him to cross the four win threshold in the majors in both 2007 and 2008. Since then, however, Upton has aggravated fantasy owners with his schizophrenic bat. B.J.’s wOBA sat at .387 in ’07 and .354 in ’08, but it dipped to .310 last season and has rebounded mildly to .324 this year. Is he a power hitter? An uber-patient batter with medium pop? Neither? And what about his declining BABIP? Let’s look at Upton’s core skills to get some answers.

Plate Discipline

Upton walked in 11.9% of his plate appearances in 2007, 15.2% in 2008, 9.1% in 2009 and he has drawn a free pass 11.1% this season. As those above-average walk rates indicate, Upton does a better job than most in terms of laying off pitches thrown outside of the strike zone. This season, he’s venturing out of the zone more than he usually does. Here are Upton’s outside swing percentages over the period of 2007-2010, compared to the MLB average:

His O-Swing is about 86 percent of the big league average, compared to 76% in ’07, 59% in ’08 and 78% last season. In addition to swinging at more off-the-plate pitches, his first-pitch strike percentage is 66 percent (58-59% MLB average). It was 63.7% in 2007, 55.2% in 2008 and 61.8% in 2009. I don’t necessarily think this has a ton of predictive value, but Upton’s performance when putting the first pitch in play has plummeted. Here are his sOPS+ numbers on the first pitch over 2007-2010. sOPS+ is a stat that compares a player’s performance in a given split to the league average. One-hundred is average, above 100 means the batters is better than most and under 100 means he is worse than average.

2007: 204 sOPS+
2008: 105 sOPS+
2009: 89 sOPS+
2010: 62 sOPS+

Power

The 6-3, 185 pound righty batter hit for elite power in 2007, posting a .209 ISO with 19.8% of his fly balls leaving the yard. Upton’s ISO fell to .128 (7.4 HR/FB%) in ’08 as he battled through a left shoulder injury that required off-season surgery. Fantasy players were hopeful that a supposedly healed Upton would start going deep more often in ’09, but his ISO barely budged (.132) and his HR/FB% was 6.8. In 2010, B.J.’s pop has rebounded to an extent — his ISO is .163, with an 8.3 HR/FB%. At this point, I think it would be safe to expect power output closer to his current clip — ZiPS pegs Upton for a .156 rest-of-season ISO, and CHONE forecasts a similar .153 ISO.

Speed

This is one area where Upton’s performance hasn’t varied much. He stole 22 bases in 30 tries in 2007 (a 73.3% success rate), then went 44-for-60 in ’08 (73.3%), 42-for-56 last season (75%). In 2010, he has 27 steals in 33 attempts (81.8%). He’s an efficient stolen base threat, and his Speed Score has increased each season (five in ’07, 5.6 in ’08, 6.8 in ’09 and eight in 2010; the MLB average is about five).

BABIP

Upton’s BABIP has been all over the place in his four seasons as a full-time starter — .393 in ’07, .344 in ’08, .310 last year and .292 in 2010. Considering Upton’s wheels, it’s bizarre that his BABIP on grounders is fueling the dip — .341 in ’07, .285 in ’08, .270 in ’09 and just .218 this season. For comparison, The AL average over that period has ranged from .231 to .246.

Is there any particular reason for Upton’s continual BABIP decline? Let’s turn to this expected BABIP (xBABIP) calculator from The Hardball Times, which estimates a hitter’s BABIP based on his rate of home runs, strikeouts, stolen bases, line drives, fly balls, pop ups and ground balls:

While Upton’s actual BABIP has dropped precipitously, his xBABIP totals suggest that little has changed. I don’t think there’s much reason to think that a player with Upton’s speed will continue to post a BABIP on grounders that’s below the league average.

His overall rate of hits on balls put in play should improve. Something closer to his career BABIP, .334, is a good estimate of what to expect from this point forward. Upton should be more of a .250-.260 type hitter than his current .227 mark.

Upton is currently on the waiver wire in one-tenth of Yahoo leagues. If you’re in a league where he’s available, I’d certainly take a gamble. I also think he’s a shrewd buy-low candidate, assuming his recent ankle injury isn’t too serious. Upton possesses a good eye (though it hasn’t been quite as discerning this year) and above-average power, and he’ll add plenty of steals to boot. There’s still upside, too, with Upton not turning 26 until late August. Don’t give up on this guy.

Luke Scott, Orioles (Owned in 19% of Yahoo leagues)

The Rodney Dangerfield of fantasy options, Scott has a couple of factors working against his gaining more notoriety — namely, he didn’t start getting meaningful big league playing time until he was in his late-twenties and he’s currently playing for the AL East’s resident doormat. But Scott could well provide a contending team with an upgrade at the trade deadline, and could do the same for fantasy owners willing to look past a lack of name recognition.

Scott’s got a robust .291/.357/.567 line in 277 plate appearances, good for a .396 wOBA. Despite being sidelined in early July with a strained left hamstring, the lefty slugger’s lumber has been +16 runs above average. While Scott might not keep flirting with a .400 wOBA, it’s not like his potent offensive showing is a fluke — he’s a career .268/.351/.504 hitter and holds a .364 wOBA. If you’re in need of some lightning in your lineup, you could do far worse than what Scott figures to provide for the rest of the season — .263/.342/.497 from ZiPS and .258/.332/.471 from CHONE. Give this guy a little respect.

Jason Hammel, Rockies (23%)

Liberated from the Tampa Bay Rays’ pitching factory in April of 2009, Hammel turned in a quality season as a full-time starter — in 176.2 innings pitched, he struck out 6.78 batters per nine innings, walked 2.14 per nine and compiled a 3.81 xFIP. While a right groin strain caused him to miss a few weeks earlier this year, Hammel is performing well again in 2010. The 27-year-old with sharp breaking stuff has K’d 7.5 per nine frames, issued 2.42 BB/9 and has a 3.72 xFIP in 104.1 IP.

Granted, those extra strikeouts might not stick. Hammel is actually getting fewer swinging strikes this season — 6.9%, compared to 9.5% in 2009 (8-9% MLB average). And, his 84.1% contact rate is higher than his 79.9% mark last year and the 81% MLB average. This increase in punch outs is due to more called strikes. Hammel’s getting a called strike 20% of the time in 2010, compared to 17.1% in ’09 (17% MLB average). Called strikes have a lower correlation with K’s than swinging strikes, so it’s unlikely that Hammel continues to fan so many. But even so, he’s a solid option. ZiPS projects 6.57 K/9, 2.57 BB/9 and a 3.95 FIP for the rest of the season, and CHONE has a forecast with 6.62 K/9, 2.6 BB/9 and a 4.22 neutralized ERA.

Kansas City Royals placed OF David DeJesus (thumb) on the 15-day DL; Recalled OF Alex Gordon from Triple-A Omaha.

DeJesus sprained his right thumb trying to make a catch in center field on what ended up being an inside-the-park homer for Derek Jeter. DeJesus, subject to countless trade rumors due to his solid bat, rangy defense and bargain contract (he has a $6 million club option for 2011), is supposed to meet with a hand specialist in Cleveland sometime today. The 30-year-old hits the shelf with a .318/.384/.443 line in 394 plate appearances, with a career-best .364 wOBA. He’s walking 8.6% of the time and has a .125 ISO, marks that are right in line with his career averages (8.3% and .137, respectively). However, a .355 BABIP that’s 33 points higher than his career figure has boosted his triple-slash.

For the time being, former organizational golden child Alex Gordon will replace DeJesus. The second overall pick in the 2005 draft shifted from third base to the corner outfield this past spring, in deference to top prospect Mike Moustakas. Gordon, a Golden Spikes Award winner ranked by Baseball America as the second-best minor league talent in the game prior to 2007, has yet to rake in the majors and has been beset by injuries. But the 26-year-old Cornhusker has punished the Pacific Coast League since an early-May demotion.

The 6-2, 220 pound lefty batter throttled Double-A pitching in 2006 — Gordon batted .325/.427/.588 in 576 Texas League PA. Walks (12.5 BB%), power (.263 ISO), speed (22 SB in 25 attempts) — you name a skill, and Gordon displayed it. He even rated as a plus defender at third, according to Sean Smith’s Total Zone system (+13 runs). That tour de force performance translated to a .253/.331/.440 major league line, per Minor League Splits.

Gordon made the Royals out of spring training the following year and went on to hit .247/.314/.411 in 601 PA (.317 wOBA). He showed decent power (.164 ISO) and stole 14 bases in 18 tries but struggled with his strike zone control at times (6.8 BB%, 25.2 K%). Gordon appeared to scuffle against secondary stuff, with a positive run value versus fastballs (+0.15 runs per 100 pitches) but red marks against changeups (-0.16), sliders (-1.42) and curveballs (-1.92). All things considered, it wasn’t a bad debut for a 23-year-old with minimal minor league experience.

In 2008, Gordon’s bat improved — he posted a .260/.351/.432 line in 571 PA, with a .344 wOBA. His rate of free passes taken jumped to 11.6%, as his outside swing percentage fell from 25.8% in ’07 to 24.1% (the MLB average was around 25% during both seasons). He hit for a similar amount of power (.172 ISO) and cut his K rate a bit to 24.3%. While continuing to hit fastballs well (+0.81 runs/100), Gordon also had positive runs values against changeups (+1.13) and curves (+1.22). His run value against sliders remained below-average (-0.92).

And then, just when it looked as though Gordon was about to make good on his prospect pedigree, the injuries began. He served a DL stint for a right quad strain in August of ’08, but a right hip ailment in 2009 would prove to be devastating. Gordon got off to a wretched start in 2009 before undergoing surgery to repair a torn labrum in his hip. He rehabbed and returned to Kansas City in July, but was back in the minors by late August (denying him the service time to achieve Super Two status) before being recalled in September. Overall, Gordon hit .327/.451/.558 in 133 minor league PA spread over Rookie Ball, Double-A and Triple-A but just .232/.324/.378 (.321 wOBA) in 189 big league PA.

This past spring, Gordon fractured his right thumb while sliding headfirst into second base during a spring training game. He was activated from the DL in mid-April, but was banished to Omaha after putting up a .298 wOBA in 38 PA. Since then, he has mashed to the tune of .315/.442/.577 in 321 PCL PA. Gordon has walked 16.2%, whiffed 27.7% and has a .262 ISO. According to Minor League Splits, his major league equivalent line is .258/.361/.444.

While he hasn’t been a disaster at the hot corner in the majors (career -2 UZR/150 in 2,805 innings), Gordon’s future in Kansas City, if he has one, figures to come in the outfield. That’s a hit in positional value, both for fantasy owners and for the Royals. For now, though, Gordon will retain eligibility at third. His rest-of-season CHONE projection calls for a .263/.358/.430, and his ZiPS projection is .242/.329/.406.

The chances of Gordon becoming a star-caliber player are very slim at this point, but he’s worth an add in AL-only leagues and could be someone to watch in mixed leagues if he gets penciled into the lineup like he should. There’s nothing left for Gordon to prove in the minors. Hopefully, he gets an extended shot (either in K.C. or elsewhere) to jump-start his career.

UPDATE: According to Bob Dutton of the Kansas City Star (via Twitter), DeJesus is out for the year with a fully torn thumb ligament. He’s scheduled for surgery Monday. With that unfortunate news, it looks like Gordon will get a chance to sink or swim in the majors.

There’s a Phillie outfielder that should be getting more pub these days, and his name is not Jayson Werth. In fantasy circles at least, it’s Shane Victorino that’s been performing at a laudable pace most of the year. Maybe it’s my fandom, or the BABIP-lowered .259 batting average, but I’ve been guilty of ignoring Victorino myself. Should I have given him more pub?

I’m not sure. Going into the season, he struck me as a little overrated – a Denard Span dressed up in more expensive and slightly more powerful (and, judging by his nickname, exciting) clothing. A good batting average and 30 stolen bases is worthwhile, but 10ish home runs means you shouldn’t pay too much for it, after all.

Well, then Victorino found his boomstick. His .196 ISO, 40.1% flyball percentage, and 11.4% HR/FB are all full-season career highs and have contributed to his career high in home runs, achieved with much of the season left. Of course, ISO is one of the last statistics to stabilize, so we should remember that. But, other than expected regression to his career means, is there something here that might stick?

One thing that leaps out at the page is a lack of linear progression towards these highs. He hasn’t had a growing flyball percentage, nor has his HR/FB total been inching forward. This isn’t something backed by extensive research, but nice linear buildup towards a career high just makes a person feel better about the repeatability of that ability. Say Victorino was getting older, slower, and more powerful – like Johnny Damon in his later New York years – then we might expect a couple of years with nice home run totals. Then again, Damon’s power didn’t come in a nice linear way either – his is more a picture of peaks and valleys.

Check it out:

Does Victorino’s look familiar?

We’ll have to plead not enough information, given how many more data points Damon has on Victorino. The best thing to note is that his speed scores are not going down, and with some regression in BABIP in the second half, Victorino might even be worth more than he has been to date – if he can hold on to his power gains.

Otherwise, he might just still be Denard Span – with a nice, powerful first half behind him. It’s all about production versus projection in the fantasy game, in the end.

Tyler Colvin entered spring training as a mid-range prospect looking to land a spot on the Chicago Cubs’ bench. But the 24-year-old has done far more than simply make the roster. Roaming all three outfield spots while spotting for Alfonso Soriano, Marlon Byrd and Kosuke Fukudome, Colvin’s bat has been +4.9 runs above average, and he has jacked 13 HR in 230 plate appearances. Is the Clemson product someone to target in keeper leagues, or his he playing over his head?

The Cubs selected Colvin with the 13th overall pick in the 2006 draft. At the time, the pick was considered a reach by Baseball America. Here’s what BA said about him at the time:

Colvin doesn’t have a tool that stands out, but as he has gained strength he has been able to repeat his smooth lefthanded swing more readily, and he’s added power to be average in that department. He’s an above-average runner and an efficient basestealer who plays a solid left field….some scouts estimated he would go in the first three rounds.

The 6-foot-3 lefty batter made his professional debut in the Short-Season Northwest League in ’06, batting .268/.313/.483 in 288 PA. In a sign of things to come, Colvin showed good power (.215 Isolated Power) and rough strike zone control (5.9 BB%, 20.8 K%). BA noted that he was young for a college draftee (turning 21 at the end of the season) and had projection in his lean 190 pound frame. They did caution that he needed to “tighten his strike zone and lay off high fastballs.”

In 2007, Colvin divided his time between the High-A Florida State League and the Double-A Southern League. In the FSL, he hit .306/.336/.514 in 262 PA. Colvin again hit the ball hard (.208 ISO) and didn’t whiff all that often (19.2 K%), but his plate discipline was a concern — he walked just 3.8% of the time. Upon the promotion to Double-A, the hacking heightened. Colvin drew ball four 1.9% and punched out 21.9%, putting up a .291/.313/.462 triple slash and a .170 ISO. The power was a plus, but the Francouer-sized strike zone scared scouts. “Advanced pitchers,” Baseball America predicted, “will exploit his anxiousness.”

Chicago sent Colvin back to the Smokies in 2008, and he made some modest gains in laying off junk pitches. In 602 PA, he slashed .256/.312/.424, walking 7.3%, striking out 18.7% and posting a .169 ISO. The main reason for the drop in his numbers was his BABIP — after having 34-35 percent of his balls in play fall for hits in ’07, Colvin had a .286 BABIP in ’08. BA commented that he sometimes cut himself off in his swing and “employ[ed] a dead-pull approach.” He seemed to have a timing issue at the dish, as his infield fly rate spiked — according to Minor League Splits, Colvin popped the ball up 14% in 2006 and 12.3% in 2007, but that figure rose to 20.3% during his second tour of the Southern League. A sore left elbow probably didn’t help matters any, either. Colvin underwent Tommy John surgery during the off-season.

Sent back to the FSL to begin the 2009 season, Colvin hit just .250/.326/.357 in 129 PA while testing out his surgically-repaired elbow. He walked 10.1%, with a 24.1 K% and a .107 ISO. Bumped up to Double-A in late May, he resumed his high-power, low patience act — he put up a .300/.334/.524 line with a .225 ISO, while working a walk just 4.8% and striking out 18.6%. Colvin’s pop up rate fell back to 13.7% between to the levels, with BA saying he “did a better job of covering the plate, as it no longer hurt when he torqued his elbow extending his arms to hit pitches on the outer half.” Colvin even got a brief glimpse of the majors in September when the Cubs suspended Milton Bradley.

Colvin’s work in the big leagues this year offers both promise and concern. On the positive side, he’s creaming pitchers — Colvin’s got a .252 ISO, and 24.1% of the fly balls that he has hit have left the yard. All of that thunder has helped him post a .262/.314/.514 line and a .357 wOBA.

However, he’s still greatly expanding his zone. Colvin has chased 39.2% of pitches thrown off the plate, one of the 20 highest rates among batters with 230+ PA and well above the 28.8% MLB average this season. He’s also making contact 70.3% of the time, compared to the 81% MLB average. The hacking and whiffing has led to a 6.5% walk rate and a 29.5% K rate.

Colvin has been an asset at the plate while hitting for gargantuan power, and he has shown the ability to hit for solid pop in the minors. But is it really reasonable to expect a guy with a career .188 ISO on the farm to continue posting a major league ISO on par with elite major league sluggers? While Colvin should continue to drive the ball often, we should expect a good deal of regression — ZiPS projects a .168 ISO for the rest of the season, and CHONE predicts a .186 ISO.

Long-term, Colvin should hit for above-average power. But if he’s going to hold significant value to the Cubs and fantasy owners, he’s going to resist the temptation to lunge at those off-the-plate offerings.