Dexter Fowler (Yahoo: 24 percent owned, ESPN: 38 percent owned)

We all have our fantasy vices, guys we draft too early or hold on to too long in a vague hope they’ll fulfill their promise. Fowler is one of mine, but he finally seems to be making good on his potential. Since the All-Star break, Fowler has hit .322/.426/.522 and, seeming to answer one of the biggest knocks against him, has stolen six bases. His season line is propped up by a .377 BABIP, which would seem to scream regression, but Fowler’s career average is an already-elevated .345. So while he may still regress, the drop isn’t likely to be as steep as it may seem at first blush. Fowler is still available in most leagues and is definitely an option in NL-Only or even deep mixed.

Trayvon Robinson (Yahoo: 0 percent owned, ESPN: 1 percent owned)

Robinson is getting a lot of press lately, for being a coup for Mariners’ GM Jack Zduriencik as well as for his defensive prowess, but don’t get caught up in the buzz. The problem that Jeff Sullivan highlighted — Robinson’s high strikeout rate — looks as though it isn’t going away any time soon, as he has struck out in five of his 12 plate appearances. It’s a perilously small sample, I don’t expect him to strike out in 42 percent of his PAs going forward, but as he continues to impress in the field and hit the odd home run, consider this a call to patience. Late-round sleeper next year? Quite possibly. Good option for the last two months of this season? Unlikely.

Denard Span (Yahoo: 32 percent owned, ESPN: 32 percent owned)

This time last week, Span was breathing a sigh of relief, having survived swirling deadline rumors that had him all but signed, sealed, and delivered to the Nationals. Span came off the disabled list last Tuesday for the first time since sustaining a concussion on June 6, when he was hitting .294/.361/.385 with four steals. In his week back in the land of the healthy, Span hasn’t exactly set the world on fire with a line of .042/.080/.042 in his six games. What has been interesting is that, despite almost never having the opportunity to do so, Span swiped a pair of bases, raising his season total to six.

I can’t recommend picking up Span right now in any format; he just doesn’t yet look fully recovered at the plate. However, if the Twins are committed to giving him the green light as often as they did with Ben Revere, Span could rack up solid stolen base numbers the rest of the way — provided he can start getting on base. It should be noted that even when he’s fully healthy, Span holds far more value in OBP leagues than traditional AVG leagues.

Chase Headley (Yahoo: 26 percent owned, ESPN: 47 percent owned)

Headley looks like he’s going to miss the majority of the rest of the season with the broken left pinkie he sustained on Aug. 7. Viable replacement include Justin Turner (owned in 13 percent of Yahoo! leagues and 20 percent of ESPN leagues), Ty Wigginton (40 percent of Yahoo! leagues and 39 percent of ESPN leagues), and Danny Valencia (29 percent of Yahoo! leagues and 50 percent of ESPN leagues). Valencia had a strong month of July (.303/.336/.468 with 4 HR), but has just six singles so far in August. Wigginton is hitting well so far, .316/.418/.439 since the break and .412/.545/.588 in August, and may be the best short-term option to replace Headley if he’s available to you.

With the trade deadline firmly in the rear view mirror, it’s time to quantify the fantasy fallout from all the dealing and wheeling, goings and comings, thither and hither. Strike that, reverse it. In other words: Rankings!

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With the unfortunate knee injury to Daniel Murphy, starting roles are in flux in New York. Ike Davis has also admitted recently that he’ll out of commission all year most likely. There’s playing time to be had.

Lucas Duda (3% owned in Yahoo)
We last profiled el Duderino at the end of June, so it’s time for an update. There are still plenty of reasons to be excited about Duda, even if his overall .262/.329/.436 line is underwhelming for a corner outfielder slash first baseman. First, there’s obviously power upside remaining. Duda ISO’ed .295 at Triple-A in 2010 and 2011 (455 PAs combined), and managed a .214 ISO in his debut (92 PAs). He hits more fly balls than ground balls, and he looks like an ox. For some reason, he’s only managing a 5.9% HR/FB number right now, but that’s not statistically reliable yet. Power is tied into his batting average, and if he can inch that power forward, he could beat his ZiPs RoS projections (.246/.324/.421) because the rest of the batting average package (other than speed) is there. He doesn’t strike out much (7.5% swinging strike rate is below average, and so is his 14.1% strikeout percentage). He’s hitting gobs of line drives (23.3%, average is 19%). He’s not an extreme fly ball hitter (0.94 GB/FB). Throw those batted ball numbers into an xBABIP calculator, and you get .328 (not his current .286). So it’s on the power: if he shows a little more of it, he could be a .275/.340/.480 guy for the next two months, which does work in most leagues.

Scott Hairston (0% owned in Yahoo)
Though he does represent an upgrade over Met bench pieces of the past, Hairston is most likely only a bench part. As much as we try to avoid using platoon splits too often here, the Chin owns a sizeable split that has affected his usage. In over 700 PAs against left-handers, Hairston is a useful .278/.331/.492 player. Against over 1200 PAs against same-handed players? The 31-year-old is batting .228/.289/.411. He still shows power, which is the best part of his game, but there seems to be something going on there. If you can put him on your deep league bench and slot him in against southpaws, you’ll come out ahead.

Nick Evans (0% owned)
If Lucas Duda is really the starting first baseman, and Scott Hairston is best used against right-handers, perhaps the 25-year-old Evans will draw the starts against right-handers. Unfortunately the player nicknamed ‘Who’ by Met faithful is also right-handed and hasn’t distinguished himself as a bona fide major league regular so far. Well, it would be unfair to judge him on his 266 major league PAs. But his minor league PAs haven’t been so amazing for a player older than his competition performing near his peak. His walk rates have been at average or worse, his strikeout rates around average, and last year he had a .149 ISO in Triple-A. It’s true that he’s had better years in the past, and it’s possible he could be useful in the deepest of leagues. But Evans didn’t once have a year as nice as Duda’s last two years in the same parks.

Let’s look at a pair of one-time fantasy stalwarts that have fallen by the wayside in recent years…

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Technically, the deal that sent Kosuke Fukudome to the Cleveland Indians for a pair of minor leaguers was consummated three days before the actual trade deadline, but close enough.  While AL-only league owners are still debating whether or not Fukudome and his .364 OBP are worth a claim, the better potential fantasy value remains in Chicago as Tyler Colvin gets another shot this season to prove his worth.  After a stellar rookie campaign in 2010, Colvin struggled mightily this year, but with a less crowded outfield and another chance to stake his claim on the Cubs’ right field job, Colvin has a prime opportunity to put his early season woes behind him and make himself indispensable to fantasy owners for these final two months. Read the rest of this entry »

Over the weekend we saw two impact bats from the same last place Houston outfield get traded to different playoff contenders in the National League East. Lets take a gander at how the productivity of Hunter Pence and Michael Bourn looks from here on out.

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Ryan Ludwick was traded from the Padres to the Pirates on Sunday. Once you get past the surprise that the Buccos were buyers, there are another three levels of analysis to go, at least. The prognosis for the player is not incredibly predictable.

The easy answer is that Ludwick will enjoy moving out of PetCo. Since moving to the Padres at last year’s deadline, Ludwick has enjoyed the worst ISO of his career. The drop, about fifty points, could be attributable to the home park. ESPN’s park factors have San Diego as suppressing home runs by 11.5% over the past two years. On first blush, this easy analysis makes sense.

But there are more than a few problems with this idea.

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Now that the trade deadline dust has settled, let’s look at a pair of players with rising fantasy stock following moves that were made (and not made)…

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As you’re tweaking your lineup here and there, looking for a way to steal some points from your opponents, check out how adding some stolen bases to your squad can help you out.  It always seems to be a very movable category in roto leagues and an often disregarded category in head to head.  Adding an extra stolen base guy can give you a nice cheap way to to boost you in the category while also helping you out in areas like runs scored and even batting average.  Here’s a pair of speedsters that seem to be available in plenty of leagues. Read the rest of this entry »

Exactly one year ago today, Tigers outfielder Brennan Boesch was hitting .312/.376/.530 — good for a .907 OPS. What happened next is not for the faint of heart.

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