Sometimes, it’s better not to be clever. A lot of the time I feel the fantasy ‘die-hards’ get caught up in out-thinking their opponents, and it can sometimes lead to sub-optimal decision making.

For the whole season, I’ve recommended weekend streaming options – the nature of streamers is that they’re owned in less than 50% of leagues, so there’s serious selection bias when looking at the results. With 29 recommendations, the streamers I suggested posted a 4.29 ERA and 4.15 FIP, with 12 wins (41%) and an average of 4.2 strikeouts in nearly six innings. These are, to ignore humility for a moment, pretty good numbers given the criteria for streamers.

They are not, however, excellent numbers, since starters league-wide have a 4.13 ERA and 4.05 FIP with 4.5 strikeouts in nearly six innings per start and wins in 35% of starts. That is, even ‘good’ streaming success adds league-average stats to your fantasy team.

But when it comes to daily leagues, you occasionally run into ownership/usage levels that indicate people are getting too clever, looking for good streaming options when excellent, though more expensive, ace options exist. Today is one such day – should we avoid Matt Harvey in a daily league because he comes with a heftier price tag?
Read the rest of this entry »

With every passing season, it seems that the amalgamation of starting pitching talent in the major leagues has gotten both progressively deeper and more dominant. Most of the speculation on the topic centers around the idea that the harshening regulations and increased testing of PEDs led to less runs being scored because hitters were physically weaker, and therefore worse at hitting.

That response to this trend feels narrative-driven at best, and I’ve found that most of the time, the simplest explanation is the best explanation. And the simplest explanation for the recent dominance of pitchers is: there just happens to be an inordinately large number of really good starters in the major leagues right now. Tonight’s games are no exception.

Read the rest of this entry »

If you play salary cap contests on daily fantasy sites like Draftstreet, you are fully aware that starting pitchers are more expensive than hitters. This is quite obviously because the scoring systems are such that starting pitchers score more points than hitters. I’m sure the goal of whoever does the pricing is to make hitting and pitching of equal value. But in my experience I’ve had more success in these contests when I spend more on pitching, which makes me think that’s where the value lies. Read the rest of this entry »

As we make the transition to the Daily Fantasy Update, I’ve lost my role as “Friday and Saturday Streamers Guy,” as well as the chance to shoehorn in a Bullet For My Valentine reference in all my post titles. And while finding four streamers across those two days was sometimes challenging, I’ve now been tasked with something equally challenging – making daily recommendations for Thursdays, perhaps the toughest day of the week.

After all, Thursdays and Mondays have the lightest schedules in baseball, and Thursdays can also pose the challenge of “getaway days,” where teams play afternoon games after night games. Those afternoon-after-night scenarios are especially important to watch out for when it comes to catchers and relief pitchers, as a manager is less likely to put that kind of wear on his guys in the more taxing roles. Tomorrow is a rare Thursday, though, in that all 30 teams play and there are only four afternoon games. So what the heck am I going on for? Thanks, Interleague Play!

Oh, Interleague. There’s another wrinkle to watch out for, as nine American League teams lose their designated hitter for the day. Guys like Victor Martinez and Adam Lind might feel the crunch with more valuable players taking up their potential positions. I know not everyone can check the line-ups diligently as they’re posted throughout the day, so it might be better to avoid DHs altogether (or scan each team’s site for context clues), since an empty spot is such a killer for daily leagues like Draftstreet.
Read the rest of this entry »

If you are like me, you spend 10 or so minutes every morning going over your rosters, making moves, and setting lineups before you head in to work for the day (or… whatever you do during the day). While I also come home and typically glue myself to MLB.tv, there are days when those early morning roster moves have to hold for that night’s games. So I got a bit above and beyond using that period for merely making sure I have a lineup in the event of a simultaneous power and cell phone network failure.

In a daily league like Draftstreet, understanding which players will play on any given day is a necessity. In roto, if a guy gets benched for platoon splits, oh well, you still have that game to use under the cap later in the season. However, in a daily salary cap league and you aren’t near a computer and player X isn’t taking the field for his 9:05 start? Big fat zero. Fangraphs posts lineups on our leaderboard as soon as they are posted, so you have ways to tease out guys riding the pine hours before the game. However, you also should be keeping an eye to the sky. Well, not literally, but always, always, always check the weather.

Read the rest of this entry »

We all have different tolerances for risk, and that can have a powerful effect on how you would play daily fantasy games. Say you’re over on Draftstreet, and you’re looking to play a game with a small buy-in, but a huge pot of winnings and several hundred competitors. Perhaps in that instance you’d be looking for players who have “boom-or-bust” potential — the guys like Carlos Gomez who are as likely to put up two homers and a steal in a night as they are to go 0-4 with four ugly strikeouts. Or if you’re playing a low-stakes game against only a few other players, maybe you’d look to choose a solid, more consistent player — someone like the (normally) reliable Denard Span who is a little more likely to put up a 2-for-4 line with two singles.

So how do we find which hitters are the most or least volatile?
Read the rest of this entry »

Home runs are obviously the best way to pick up points in a Draftstreet contest. You get credit for a point per total base, so home runs are worth four points. But in reality they are worth at least seven points because you also get a point and a half each for the run and the RBI. Unfortunately, it’s impossible to go for power in every slot on a salary cap team. The guys who hit consistently for power are priced accordingly, and you can’t afford to take a consistent power hitter in each slot.

Find yourself a stud or two with a favorable lefty-righty matchup against a bad pitcher and try to get your power there. But elsewhere, you’re going to have to find points in other ways. And one other way is to identify good situations for base stealers. A stolen base is worth two points, but really it’s worth 2.75-3 points because the player has to walk (.75 points) or get a single (one point) in order to attempt a steal.

Read the rest of this entry »