The Toronto Blue Jays have hit 44 home runs at home this season, six more than any other team and 33 percent more than any other American League outfit. Somewhat surprisingly given their success, they also rank tied for second in home runs surrendered at home with 30, just four behind the league’s leader. Add it up and 77 home runs have been hit at Rogers Centre, even though the Jays have split their games evenly between home and road.

Relevant to those statistics is that the dome was open for three of the past five games, during which 10 home runs were hit (19 percent more than the dome-closed average this season). Except…the status of the dome doesn’t really matter.

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While y’all suckers are slaving away at your desk tomorrow, the current Roto Riteup author would like you to think of me sitting pantless in front of the TV, slowly drinking myself to death.

On today’s agenda:
1. Carl Crawford to DL, but don’t expect Joc Pederson
2. Matt Cain to start Saturday
3. A.J. Pollock sits on top
4. Fun with Arbitrary Endpoints
5. The Fast and Furious Fast

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Agenda

1. Guitar Riffs
2. Daily DFS
3. Thin Thursday
4. Table

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Usually I riff a little on pitching. There are two reasons behind that: I love pitching and I find it easier to analyze because the pitcher, for the most part, controls most of their fate. Sure defense plays a role, but I usually look at stats that take that into account in the first place.

If there was ever a pitcher that embodies “peripherals are more important at this stage of the season,” it’s Shelby Miller. If you focus on traditional stats, Miller hasn’t been that bad. He’s racked up six wins (!) and has a 3.18 ERA. As we know, that doesn’t tell the whole story. Miller’s been very, very lucky; not just with babip, either. Miller’s wiggled out of trouble a ton, evidenced by his 87.7% LOB%. His strikeout rate has plummeted ~5% while his walk rate has increased ~5%. All in all, Miller’s k-bb% (perhaps my favorite metric) has decreased nearly 10 percentage points. Not good.

Surely you, the astute Fangraphs reader, have known for a little while that Miller’s pitching on borrowed time. If you haven’t shopped him yet, do it quickly.

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Today’s Roto Riteup author would like to point out that the holiday weekend is well over, so you better get back to work after you finish reading this, sucka.

On today’s agenda:
1. Negative MRIs for young guns…
2. But some injuries remain
3. Fun with Minor League stats
4. The Farmer’s Five

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Agenda

1. Your Final Roster Spot
2. Daily DFS
3. Wednesday Wends
4. Table

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Memorial Day is behind us. Hopefully your long weekend treated you well. Fortunately there was a full schedule yesterday; today, the same. Brandon Moss kept on raking yesterday. As did Derek Norris, who has been the best hitting back stop by quite a margin. The Athletics are fantastic, in case you were wondering what my point was. I will continue to keep gushing about them.

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I hope everyone who got a three day weekend enjoyed it. Maybe you did some grilling, played some golf or just sat on the deck and watched baseball (which is what I did). Regardless, back to work and back to the Roto Riteup.

On today’s agenda:
1. Tommy Milone gets his third win
2. I’m buying Carl Crawford
3. Thoughts on Brandon McCarthy
4. The Daily Five

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Agenda

1. Happy Memorial Day
2. Daily DFS
3. Regular Tuesday
4. Table

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I’ve mentioned this before, but each week I take the updated Steamer rest-of-season projections and run them through the Draftstreet scoring system to get per game projections for each player. Every day I’ll compare those projections to cost to determine value plays for the day. After the jump I’ve embedded a couple of charts with the updated per game projections for the rest of the season. When preparing each day, you can export the prices from Draftstreet and put them in a column next to each player’s projection (use the vlookup function in Excel to do this). Then just divide cost by points, and you’ve got value for all players.

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