Pittsburgh Pirates signed RHP Octavio Dotel to a one-year deal with an option for the 2011 season.

The deal is pending a physical, and financial terms aren’t yet known. Pittsburgh Post-Gazette writer Dejan Kovacevic reports that Dotel is expected to earn about $3 million in 2010, however.

The 36 year-old righty will take over ninth inning duties from Matt Capps, who was non-tendered in December and inked a $3.5 million deal with the Nationals in early January.

Dotel missed the majority of the 2005 and 2006 seasons following Tommy John surgery, then posted a 3.73 xFIP in 30.2 IP between the Royals and Braves in 2007 while serving DL stints for a strained oblique and a right shoulder strain.

Since then, the former Met, Astro, Athletic, Yankee, Royal, Brave and White Sock has turned in back-to-back healthy, productive campaigns. Over the past two years, Dotel has punched out 11.62 batters per nine innings, second-best among relievers (Jonathan Broxton takes top honors). His control wavers (4.52 BB/9) and he’s an extreme fly ball pitcher (34 GB%), but Dotel compiled a 3.72 xFIP with the South Siders in 2008 and 2009.

Pittsburgh’s new stopper flings his fastball over 80 percent of the time, supplementing the pitch with a low-80’s slider. Dotel’s Pitch F/X page suggests that he picked up the Cooper Cutter: there is a pronounced difference in vertical and horizontal movement between his four-seam fastball and cutter.

As Dave Allen showed, Dotel attacks hitters high in the zone with his heater, despite relatively modest velocity (he once sat in the mid-90’s, but now pops the gun at 92-93 MPH).

That up-the-ladder approach helps explain Dotel’s big whiff rates and fly ball tendencies: pitches high in the zone garner more swings and misses and fly balls, while pitches lower in the zone produce more contact and grounders. Dotel’s fastball(s) have a +0.40 run value per 100 pitches since 2008, while his slider checks in at +0.13. Octavio has the 12th-lowest contact rate among ‘pen arms over that time frame, at 71.9 percent.

Dotel’s new digs should help him, considering how often batters loft the ball against him when they manage to make contact. Per the 2010 Bill James Handbook, PNC Park suppressed home run production by 12 percent compared to a neutral park from 2007-2009. Compare that to his old home, U.S. Cellular Field. The Cell boosted taters by 25 percent compared to a neutral stadium over that same time period. CHONE projects a 3.72 FIP for Dotel next season, with 10.7 K/9 and 4.25 BB/9.

Pittsburgh Pirates claimed OF Brandon Jones off waivers from the Atlanta Braves.

Jones’ stay with the Bucs could be transient: the club apparently claimed the Braves farmhand off waivers with the intention of flipping him to another organization.

The 26 year-old lefty batter got cups of coffee with Atlanta in each of the past three seasons, posting an 81 wRC+ in 166 plate appearances. In 1,000+ PA at the Triple-A Level, Jones has a .277/.354/.420 triple-slash, walking in 11 percent of his trips to the plate and whiffing 18.3 percent.

While Baseball America rated him as the fourth-best prospect in the Braves’ system prior to the 2007 and 2008 seasons, Jones looks headed for a career as a handy fourth outfielder. He plays a nifty corner outfield according to TotalZone, and CHONE forecasts a .267/.342/.425 line in 2010.

According to MLB.com’s Jason Beck, free agent reliever Jose Valverde has come to terms with the Detroit Tigers on a two-year, $14 million contract, with a $9 million option for the 2012 season. Because Valverde is a Type A free agent, the Houston Astros will receive Detroit’s first-round pick (19th overall) in the 2010 amateur draft, as well as a supplemental first-round selection.

Papa Grande’s signing ends any notion of Ryan Perry, Joel Zumaya or newly-acquired Daniel Schlereth closing out games for the Tigers.

Thirty-two in March, Valverde has a career 3.47 Expected Fielding Independent ERA (xFIP). Over the last three seasons, he has a 3.59 xFIP, with 10.26 strikeouts per nine innings and 3.31 BB/9. It’s worth noting that Valverde’s K rate has declined four years running, from 12.59 per nine frames in 2006 to 9.33 K/9 in 2009.

The former Diamondback and Astro made some changes to his approach over that time. Counter intuitively, Valverde’s punch out rate declined while his percentage of fastballs thrown decreased:

Valverde’s fastball percentage, 2006-2009

2006: 84.4%
2007: 77.8%
2008: 74.1%
2009: 69.4%

Valverde’s fastball velocity has trended up: 93.5 MPH in ’06, 93.4 in ’07, 95.5 in ’08 and a sizzling 95.8 in ’09.

The 6-4 right-hander has mixed in more mid-80’s splitters: 9.8% in 2006, 20% in 2007, 24.4% in 2008 and 26.9% this past year. Firing fastballs less often and relying more on the splitter, Valverde has tossed fewer pitches in the strike zone and has become more adept at garnering swings outside of the zone:

2006: 59.2 Zone%, 22.3 O-Swing%
2007: 55.4 Zone%, 24.4 O-Swing%
2008: 52.5 Zone%, 33 O-Swing%
2009: 52.3 Zone%, 32 O-Swing%

(The MLB average for Zone% has been between 49-52% from 2006-2009, while the average O-Swing% has been between 23-25%)

So, he’s throwing fewer fastballs and more splitters, while putting fewer pitches over the plate and getting more outside swings. Those trends might lead you to believe that he would induce more swings and misses, but that hasn’t been the case. The reason? Valverde’s blistering fastball actually has a higher whiff rate than his splitter.

Valverde’s four-seamer had a 15.2% whiff rate in 2008 and a 12.6 whiff% in 2009. For reference, the average for righty pitchers is about six percent. His splitter, by contrast, had a 13.3% whiff rate in ’08 and a 12.2% mark in ’09 (the MLB average is 12-13 percent). Both offerings get the job done, though. Since 2007, Valverde’s fastball (+0.88 runs/100 pitches) and split (+0.79) have been similarly effective on a per-pitch basis.

CHONE has Valverde compiling a 3.87 FIP in 2010, with 8.37 K/9 and 3.47 BB/9 in 57 innings pitched. That comes out to about 0.7 Wins Above Replacement, the same total that Valverde posted in 2009.

A win is thought to cost roughly $4.5 million on the free agent market. The Tigers figure to get 1.5 to 2 wins out of Valverde’s two guaranteed years, meaning the club is paying something like $7 to 9+ million per win. Of course, you also have to consider the cost of losing a first-round pick (about $6.5 million, according to Victor Wang’s research). With the lost draft pick factored in, Detroit may be shelling out between $10+ million to $13+ million per win. If you think that’s a good deal, then I have beachfront property in Pittsburgh to sell you.

For fantasy purposes, Valverde is a good second-tier option. He’s not in the same class as the Riveras, Nathans and Sorias of the world, but if your investment in Papa Grande is more moderate than Detroit’s, you won’t get buyer’s remorse.

Earlier in the decade, the Angels were known for consistently cobbling together top-tier bullpens. From 2002-2007, L.A. ranked in the top three in the American League in reliever xFIP, taking top honors in 2003 and 2004.

The names, outside of $900,000 bonus baby Francisco Rodriguez, were hardly glamorous. Those Angelic bullpens were anchored by guys like Brendan Donnelly (a 27th round pick of the White Sox who passed through six organizations), Scot Shields (the Angels’ 38th rounder in 1997) and Ben Weber, a 20th round pick of the Blue Jays who didn’t get a legit big league shot until age 31.

Given the Angels’ track record of uncovering bullpen gems, one might find it strange that the team has laid down a big chunk of change on free agent relievers in recent off-seasons. Justin Speier pulled down $18 million while contributing -0.2 WAR. Brian Fuentes compiled 0.4 WAR in 2009 while making $8.5M. He’ll earn $9M in 2010, and has a $9M vesting option for 2011. Fun fact: Donnelly came out of nowhere, again, to post a 0.6 WAR season with the Marlins in 2009. The cost? A minor league deal.

Add Fernando Rodney to the list of high-profile relief signings. The long-time Tiger, 33 in March, inked for two years and $11M recently. It’s a level of compensation that Rodney has not justified during his major league tenure.

The first thing some will point to regarding Rodney is: 37 for 38. As in, he converted 37 of 38 save opportunities in 2009. That sounds impressive, right? Well, looks can be deceiving.

Rodney posted his lowest strikeout rate (7.26 K/9) since an 18-inning stint 2002. His control, never a strong suit (career 4.64 BB/9) was again middling, with 4.88 walks per nine frames in 2009. On the positive side, the righty with mid-90’s gas and a hard changeup did post the highest groundball rate (57.9 percent) and first pitch strike percentage (62.7) of his career.

Even so, he was nothing special. Rodney’s xFIP was 4.42 this past season. For reference, 138 relievers pitched 50 or more innings in 2009. Fernando’s xFIP placed 89th. His 1.49 K/BB ratio ranked 115th. Even by Rodney’s own standards, it wasn’t a banner season. His 77.9% contact rate was his highest since ’02, and well above his 73.3% career mark. His ’09 xFIP was actually his worst full-season mark.

With the Angels, Rodney could now compete with last year’s big-ticket disappointment, Fuentes. The 34 year-old southpaw posted a K rate (7.53 per nine) well below his career level (9.92 K/9), while handing out 3.93 BB/9. His xFIP was a grisly 4.94.

Fuentes couldn’t seem to find his breaking stuff last year. His recent Baseball Info Solutions pitch data lumps all of his mid-70’s breakers together, but the Pitch F/X data suggests Fuentes tosses both a slider and a curve.

The slider has been worth a healthy +0.76 runs per 100 pitches since 2002, with the curve posting a run value around the major league average. But in 2009, those slow, sweeping pitches (all called sliders by BIS) were pummeled for -0.42 runs/100. Fuentes’ contact rate spiked to 80.3 percent, well above his 73.6% figure since ’02.

Here are the 2010 CHONE projections for Rodney and Fuentes:

Rodney: 57 IP, 7.9 K/9, 4.9 BB/9, 4.58 ERA, 0 runs above replacement
Fuentes: 56 IP, 7.9 K/9, 3.5 BB/9, 3.54 ERA, +8 RAR

If Rodney and Fuentes were to perform around this level, the Angels would be paying $14.5M for less than one win above replacement.

Heading into 2010, Rodney will garner attention based on his save total and the possibility that he usurps Fuentes for ninth inning glory in L.A. Don’t get carried away, though. For all of the press and cash Rodney and Fuentes will get, the best reliever in the ‘pen might just be pitching in middle relief.

Mariners acquired OF Johermyn Chavez and RHP Brandon League from the Blue Jays for RHP Brandon Morrow.

Marc Hulet did a fantastic job giving us a breakdown of Chavez, a 20 year-old with a projectable 6-3, 200+ pound frame and power potential. The Venezuelan prospect has plenty to learn about controlling the strike zone, however. Johermyn, meet Greg Halman. Greg, Johermyn.

While Chavez could pay dividends for the Mariners down the line, let’s break down how Morrow and League are affected by this deal.

If someone publishes “Pitcher Development for Dummies,” there ought to be an entire chapter devoted to how Morrow was mishandled in his early days in Seattle.

The fireballing righty was taken 5th overall out of Cal in the 2006 amateur draft. In its prospect coverage, Baseball America dubbed Morrow “perhaps the best pure arm in the draft.” The lanky 6-3 pitcher sat in the mid-to-high 90’s with his fastball, flashing an occasionally plus slider and a passable changeup. However, BA also said that his secondary stuff “comes and goes,” and that “several scouts still question his feel for the strike zone and for pitching in general.”

So, what did the M’s do with their gifted-but-unpolished bonus baby? Jump him all the way to the majors after 16 innings in the minors, of course!

In 2007, Morrow was pigeonholed into Seattle’s bullpen. Unsurprisingly, he was as raw as uncooked hamburger meat. Instead of working on his breaking and off speed stuff in the minors, building arm strength and stamina, Morrow flung mid-90’s fastballs in the bigs, hoping to miss enough bats to compensate for a total lack of control.

He did whiff a lot of hitters, with 9.38 K/9. But Morrow walked an obscene 7.11 hitters per nine frames. His heater, thrown 80 percent of the time, was decent (+0.53 runs per 100 pitches). But Brandon made little progress with his secondary pitches (-2.37 for the slider, with a splitter/change that was about average).

Morrow spent most of 2008 as a reliever, before going to the minors to get stretched out and returning in September as a starter.

He whiffed 11.5 batters per nine frames in 36.2 relief innings, with improved control (3.68 BB/9). As a starter, Morrow posted rates of 9 K/9 and 6.11 BB/9 in 28 IP. Overall, his fastball (thrown 71 percent) was excellent (+1.59 runs/100). Morrow’s slider was still lackluster (-0.54), and his changeup/split was a little better than average (+0.34).

2009 was more of the same. To start, or not to start, that is the question. Hamle…er, Morrow oscillated between the ‘pen and the rotation yet again. He served as Seattle’s closer before David Aardsma grabbed the role. Brandon also served a DL stint with right biceps tendinitis in late April (he had some shoulder and forearm discomfort earlier in the spring as well). Morrow then made some starts from June to July, before getting optioned to AAA Tacoma.

In 10 starts (55 innings) with the Rainers, the former Golden Bear punched out a modest 6.5 hitters per nine innings, with 3.8 BB/9 and a 3.53 FIP. Morrow had more issues with a forearm strain while on the farm.

He returned to Seattle in September to make four more starts. As a starter in 2009, Morrow K’d 7.5 per nine frames, while still handing out plenty of free passes (5.26 BB/9).

Ironically, his slider (+0.64 runs/100), curveball (+0.5) and changeup (+0.18) rated as above-average pitches in ’09, while his heater suffered (-0.53).

Under team control until 2012, Morrow hopes to start with the Blue Jays. Because of the peculiar decision by Seattle’s last regime to stuff him in the bullpen and Morrow’s subsequent shuffling between roles, he’s now 25 and still green as grass.

Assuming Morrow still has minor league options left, might it be best for Toronto to give him back some of that lost development time by letting him open the 2010 season at AAA? Las Vegas isn’t an ideal locale for a pitcher to polish his skills. But Morrow tossed all of 101 frames in the minors, and has a career walk rate of 5.8 per nine innings in the majors. He’s clearly talented, but he’s also a mess right now. Morrow could also emerge as a closer option with the Jays.

In swapping Morrow for League, Seattle is either A.) fairly convinced that Morrow won’t cut it as a starter, B.) smitten with the young outfielder Chavez or C.) both.

That’s not to say that League is a slouch, though. The 27 year-old righty has a career 3.71 xFIP in the majors, waging a ground assault with a 62 GB%. Toronto’s second-round pick in the 2001 draft turned in his finest campaign in 2009, with 9.16 K/9, 2.53 BB/9 and a 3.16 xFIP in 74.2 innings.

League’s 2009 K rate was well above his career average of 6.85 per nine innings. He changed his approach this past year, however. The 6-2 reliever threw a blistering mid-90’s fastball well over 80 percent of the time from 2006-2008, mixing in some high-80’s sliders and a rare changeup.

In ’09, League lowered his fastball percentage to 65 percent, and basically scrapped the slider. He relied heavily upon his mid-80’s changeup, tossing the pitch nearly 33 percent of the time. While his heater wasn’t as successful as usual (-0.31 runs/100, compared to +0.24 during his career), Brandon’s hard changeup was a plus offering (+2.65 runs/100 in 2009).

The result of the change? A career-high outside-swing percentage (32.9 percent) and a big dip in contact rate (71 percent, compared to a 78.8% career average). The extra whiffs came at the expense of some grounders, though he still kept the ball down (55.7 GB%).

With a low arm slot and his previously fastball-centric approach, League has struggled with lefties. He still gave up his fair share of extra-base hits to southpaws in ’09, but he did at least display better control against opposite-handed hitters.

There has been some speculation that League could try his hand at starting, but he hasn’t started on a regular basis since 2003. In all likelihood, League gives the M’s a strong 7th or 8th inning relief option.

After examining some of the interesting hitters non-tendered, let’s now turn our focus toward the hurlers let go by teams on Saturday. I only included CHONE projections for a select few, as many of these pitchers are still on the rehab trail.

Jose Arredondo

Arredondo was a revelation out of the Angels bullpen in 2008 (8.11 K/9, 3.25 BB/9, 3.62 xFIP), but he endured a nightmarish 2009 campaign and is now set to undergo Tommy John surgery. The small righty with big stuff wasn’t nearly as bad in 2009 as his 6.00 ERA would indicate, as his BABIP was .339 and his strand rate was just 64.9%. Arredondo’s xFIP was 4.03. He missed more bats (9.4 K/9), but his control suffered (4.6 BB/9). Jose also whiffed a bunch of batters (10.5 K/9) and walked the yard (6.1 BB/9) in 20.2 innings at AAA.

Matt Capps (56 IP, 6.91 K/9, 2.41 BB/9, 1.13 HR/9)

Capps was something of a surprise non-tender, but his reputation might surpass his actual contribution at this point. To be sure, he’s nowhere near as bad as his 5.80 ERA in 2009 would suggest: his BABIP was a stunning .370. Capps has excellent control (career 1.66 BB/9), but he doesn’t whiff many batters for a late-game reliever (6.89 K/9). An extreme fly ball pitcher (career 36 GB%), Capps benefitted from abnormally low home run/fly ball rates in 2007 (4.4%) and 2008 (6.8%). In ’09, that figure regressed to 13.5%. Check out Capps’ ERA and xFIP numbers from 2007 to 2009:

2007: 2.28 ERA, 4.31 xFIP
2008: 3.02 ERA, 3.95 xFIP
2009: 5.80 ERA, 4.37 xFIP

Add in Capps’ recent health problems (DL stints for a shoulder injury in ’08 and an elbow malady in ’09), and the non-tender begins to make more sense.

Mike MacDougal (55 IP, 6.71 K/9, 5.56 BB/9, 0.65 HR/9)

The Nationals wisely let the control-challenged, injury-prone MacDougal walk, rather than going to arbitration with a guy whose surface stats (20 saves in 21 chances, 4.31 ERA) far exceeded his peripherals (5.63 K/9, 6.29 BB/9, 4.99 xFIP). MacDougal was as wild as ever in 2009, and his stuff missed few bats. The 32 year-old righty decided to chuck mid-90’s heater after mid-90’s heater (Mac tossed his fastball almost 90% of the time in 2009). Subsequently, his contact rate spiked to 83.9%, compared to a career 78.2% average.

Adam Miller

Sigh. The electric right-hander was once the pride of the Indians organization, and for good reason. His mid-90’s heat and sinister slider fooled plenty of batters in the minors. But injuries have ruined Miller’s career. Elbow problems slowed him a few years ago, and a pair of surgeries on his right middle finger could possibly end his career before it even got started.

(Update: Miller and Reyes have been re-signed by the Indians.)

Scott Olsen

Have you seen Olsen’s career? In 2006, the lefty looked like one of the more valuable commodities in the N.L. At 22 years old, Olsen posted a 4.07 xFIP in 180.2 IP, whiffing 8.27 hitters per nine innings and displaying an excellent slider and changeup.

After a mediocre 2007 season (4.95 xFIP), Olsen’s velocity fell off a cliff in 2008. So did his ability to make hitters miss: 8.27 K/9 in ’06, 6.78 in ’07, and just 5.04 per nine in ’08. A trade to the Nationals did little to revive his velocity and career, and Olsen underwent surgery to repair a torn labrum in July. Perhaps Washington will bring the soon-to-be 26 year-old back at a lower cost, but his stock has plummeted.

Anthony Reyes

The former Cardinals prospect has a fantastic minor league track record. However, Reyes likes to work up in the zone with his high-80’s-low-90’s fastball. That has led to a ton of fly balls (35.9 GB%) and dingers (1.35 HR/9) in the big leagues. His career line in the majors: 5.05 xFIP, 6.29 K/9 and 3.65 BB/9 in 293.1 frames.

Reyes’ career has also been marred by elbow ailments, and he underwent Tommy John surgery this past June after an abysmal performance with the Indians. The 28 year-old has a pair of decent secondary pitches in a mid-70’s curveball (+0.13 runs/100 career) and a mid-70’s changeup (+0.32 runs/100). He’s going to have to learn to keep that heater down, though, lest it continue to get scorched (-0.52 runs/100).

(Update: Reyes and Miller have been re-signed by the Indians.)

Chien-Ming Wang (103 IP, 5.42 K/9, 3.15 BB/9, 0.61 HR/9)

Which sinkerballer’s career has imploded more: Wang’s or Fausto Carmona’s?

Wang (30 in March) had a mind-bending 9.64 ERA in 42 frames this past season: a .397 BABIP and a 53.1% strand rate will do that. He was the most groundball-centric pitcher in the big leagues earlier in his career, getting worm-burners over 60% of the time from 2007-2009. But during injury-plagued 2008 and 2009 campaigns (season-ending Lisfranc problem in ’08, a hip ailment and a shoulder injury requiring season-ending surgery in ’09), Wang’s groundball rate fell to around 53-54%.

He’s still recovering from that June shoulder surgery, and he isn’t expected to take a big league mound until late spring or early summer. If Wang can get healthy, he and his 4.22 career xFIP could still be of use to clubs.

Mark Worrell

A righty reliever with a wacky delivery, Worrell was acquired by the Padres (along with Luke Gregerson) in last winter’s Khalil Greene trade.

While Gregerson was extremely effective out of the ‘pen for San Diego, Worrell underwent Tommy John surgery and missed the ’09 season. Worrell has missed a ton of bats in the minors. He could re-sign with the Padres as he continues his rehab.

When I think of relief pitchers, this Neil Young lyric pops into my head:

It’s better to burn out
Than to fade away
My my, hey hey.

The reign of a top bullpen arm can be transient. One minute, a guy is on top of the world, entering the game to a heavy metal tune and a boisterous crowd reception worthy of a heavyweight champion. The next, he’s posting a 4.65 ERA with the Quebec Capitales (Qu’est-ce qui se passe, Eric Gagne?)

J.J. Putz can well understand. The 6-5 righty was a run-of-the-mill middle reliever with the Mariners in 2004 and 2005. Then, he found an extra gear on his fastball, added a splitter and became a monster out of the M’s pen. Now, after two lost seasons, Putz has inked a one-year, $3M deal with the White Sox with $3.25M in incentives.

Putz posted nearly six wins above replacement between 2006 and 2007, with rates of 11.2 K/9 and 1.6 BB/9. His mid-90’s fastball posted run values of +2.06 per 100 pitches in ’06 and +2.58 in ’07, with his splitter and slider also causing hitters to walk back to the dugout mumbling to themselves. J.J. had 2.11 xFIP in 2006 and a 2.82 mark in 2007.

Unfortunately, Putz’s time as a bullpen rock star ended there. His 2008 season was marred by ribcage and elbow maladies, limiting him to 46.1 IP. Putz still whiffed plenty of batters (10.88 K/9), but his control deserted him (5.44 BB/9). He pounded the strike zone during his glory days (54 InZone% in 2006 and 2007), but J.J. put just 47.5% of his pitches over the plate in ’08 (the MLB average has been around 50-52% over the past three seasons).

Following the season, Seattle swapped Putz to the Mets as part of a three-team, 12-player deal. Rather than re-establishing his value as K-Rod’s set-up man, Putz threw just 29.1 frames before succumbing to surgery to remove bone spurs from his elbow.

He was a shell of his former self in 2009, walking as many batters as he punched out (5.83 K/9 and 5.83 BB/9). Putz’s fastball was down a couple of ticks, and the pitch was plastered (-1.63 runs/100). His contact rate soared, sitting at 82.7% compared to a 76% career average. With Putz a mess on the mound, opposing hitters were content to lay off his stuff (17.9 outside-swing percentage in ’09, compared to about 25% in 2007 and 2008).

Looking at Putz’s Pitch F/X data, there’s an interesting trend in the vertical movement on his splitter. Pitch F/X splits Putz’s off-speed stuff into changeups and splitters, classifying most of them as changeups. I’m going to lump them together here, and call them all splitters. Take a look at the difference in the vertical movement in Putz’s fastball and splitter over the past three years:

Vertical movement on Putz’s fastball and splitter, 2007-2009
2007
Fastball: 10.9 Z
Splitter: 6.4 Z
Difference in vertical movement: 4.5 inches

2008
Fastball: 9.9 Z
Splitter: 4.1 Z
Difference in vertical movement: 5.8 inches

2009
Fastball: 9.8 Z
Splitter: 2.7 Z
Difference in vertical movement: 7.1 inches

There’s now a pronounced difference in vertical movement between Putz’s fastball and splitter. Perhaps there’s a point of diminishing returns with the separation between those two pitches: if there’s too much of a difference, hitters will be able to distinguish between the fastball and splitter and simply lay off those tumbling off-speed pitches they once flailed at.

On the south side, Putz is no better than third in line for save chances, behind incumbent Bobby Jenks (3.63 xFIP in 2009) and set-up man Matt Thornton (2.79 xFIP). Hey, it still beats the Can Am League.

Righty reliever Rafael Soriano, a Type A free agent fresh off a dominant 2009 season, caught the Atlanta Braves off guard when he accepted the club’s offer of arbitration.

Having already ponied up for Billy Wagner and Takashi Saito via free agency, Atlanta didn’t want to spend another $8M or so on the ‘pen.

According to MLB.com’s Mark Bowman, the Braves have swapped Soriano to the Tampa Bay Rays in exchange for right-hander Jesse Chavez.

In Tampa, Soriano becomes a prime candidate for ninth inning duty. His injury history is extensive: Soriano’s 2004, 2005 and 2008 seasons were wiped out by elbow surgeries. But in ’09, the soon-to-be 30 year-old turned in one of the better relief performances in the majors.

In 75.2 IP, Soriano punched out a career-high 12.13 hitters per nine innings, while issuing 3.21 BB/9. His K rate placed second among relievers, bested only by Jonathan Broxton’s 13.5 punch outs per nine frames. Soriano’s 2.99 Expected Fielding Independent ERA ranked 9th among ‘pen arms.

Soriano attacks hitters with a wicked low-90’s fastball/low-80’s slider combo. In 2009, Rafael’s heater was worth +1.42 runs per 100 pitches (his run value with the fastball since 2002 is +1.28 per 100 tosses). His slider baffled batters to the rune of +1.39 runs/100 (+1.54 since 2002).

The former Mariner doesn’t dawdle around on the mound: he goes right after the opposition. Soriano located 53.6% of his pitches within the strike zone in ’09, which ranked in the top 15 among relievers. His InZone percentage since 2002 is 54.2. Hitters struggled to do much with those pitches over the plate, as Soriano had the second-lowest percentage of in-zone contact among relievers (Oakland’s Andrew Bailey took home first place).

With the Rays, Soriano’s primary competition for save chances will be southpaw J.P. Howell.

From a scouting standpoint, Howell is the anti-Soriano. The former Royals starter cracks the mid-80’s with his fastball on a good day, and tossed the pitch less than half of the time in 2009.

Rather, Howell mixes in a bunch of low-80’s curveballs and high-70’s changeups. Both of those pitches were superb in 2009 (+1.58 runs/100 for the curve, +3.2 for the change of pace). Whereas Soriano’s high heat gets few ground balls (career 30.8 GB%), J.P. burned worms at a 51.8% clip from 2008-2009.

Despite the finesse repertoire, Howell has whiffed 9.87 per nine innings over the past two years, with 4.15 BB/9. He posted a 3.54 xFIP in 2008 and a 3.47 xFIP in 2009.

Considering Howell’s ability to toss multiple frames, Soriano would appear the be the front-runner for saves in Tampa Bay. Both are well-qualified for the role, however.

As for Chavez, the 26 year-old will be changing teams for the second time this offseason and the third time during his career. The former Rangers prospect was shipped to Pittsburgh on deadline day in 2006 in exchange for Kip Wells. He was traded to Tampa earlier this offseason for 2B Akinori Iwamura.

In three seasons at the AAA level, Chavez punched out 8.2 batters per nine innings, while walking 2.6 per nine. The 6-2 righty posted a 4.49 xFIP with the Bucs in ’09, with rates of 6.28 K/9 and 2.94 BB/9.

Chavez showed off a pair of quality secondary pitches (+3.16 runs/100 for his high-80’s slider, and +0.89 for a mid-80’s changeup/splitter). His mid-90’s gas, however, was blasted for -0.72 runs/100. The fly ball-centric reliever was plagued by the long ball, surrendering 1.47 HR/9. In Atlanta, Chavez figures to fill a 6th/7th inning role.

After trading for Matt Lindstrom earlier in the day, Brian McTaggart of MLB.com is reporting the Astros have signed reliever Brandon Lyon to a deal.

When I wrote about Lindstrom’s signing, I said this regarding the Astros’ late inning options:

In Houston, Lindstrom looks to be the closer, as of now. The Astros have expressed interest in bringing back Jose Valverde, but if they have another closer option that scenario looks less likely.

Well, it looks like you can count on Valverde signing elsewhere this offseason.

Lyon is now likely to be the closer in Houston, pushing Lindstrom to a setup role for the Astros. Lyon’s last stint as a closer was with Arizona in 2008, and it didn’t exactly go well. In 59.1 innings, Lyon saved 26 games in 31 chances. He ended the year with an ERA of 4.70 and a WHIP of 1.48, to go along with 44 strikeouts and a 3.84 FIP (4.10 xFIP).

After the 2008 season, Lyon signed with Detroit as a free agent, and spent the year setting up games for Fernando Rodney. Lyon made himself look better as a Tiger, pitching 78.2 innings in 2009 and ending the year with an ERA of 2.86. However, his walk rate rose (from 1.97 to 3.55 BB/9) and his strikeout rate stayed the same. His FIP on the year was 4.06, with an xFIP of 4.24.

With a sub-par strikeout rate and higher walk rate, Lyon is a tough own even if he is getting save chances. His ERA is likely to rise closer to his career line of 4.20, with a WHIP near 1.40. He should be able to get ~30 saves in Houston, but is still a lower tier closer. I was more excited about Lindstrom getting save opportunities, but Lyon is a bit of a safer draft pick next year.

According to Peter Gammons of ESPN, the Houston Astros have acquired reliever Matt Lindstrom from the Florida Marlins.

After Kevin Gregg was dealt to the Cubs last year, Lindstrom started the 2009 season as the Marlins closer. In 54 games with the Marlins last season, Lindstrom recorded 15 saves in 17 chances. He posted a 5.89 ERA, 1.65 WHIP, and 39 strikeouts in 47.1 innings. Lindstrom missed 38 days from late June to early August after suffering a right elbow strain.

After going on the disabled list, Lindstrom returned to the Marlins only to find Leo Nunez occupying the closers role. Lindstrom only had one save opportunity in August and September, and he converted it. Seeing that Nunez was good enough to close for them and Lindstrom was eligible for arbitration, the Marlins made the decision to deal him to save some money.

Lindstrom is one of those guys I have always liked, even though the numbers tell me I shouldn’t. It must be his sexy fastball, which clocks in at an average 96.6 MPH. Lindstrom also throws a slider, and a rare splitter.

In Houston, Lindstrom looks to be the closer, as of now. The Astros have expressed interest in bringing back Jose Valverde, but if they have another closer option that scenario looks less likely. If Lindstrom gets the first shot at closing and runs with it, expect 25+ saves with an ERA over 4.30. and a WHIP close to 1.50. These numbers aren’t spectacular, but Lindstrom provides solid strikeouts (7.42 K/9 last year), so he is ownable as a lower tier closer.

In Florida, Nunez seems to have the hold on the closers job going into next season. He saved 26 games in 33 chances, striking out 60 batters in 68.2 innings in 2009. He is a lower tier closer like Lindstrom, but I would rather have Nunez on my fantasy squad than Lindstrom.

When a team loses 103 ball games, suffice it to say that club’s plans went up in flames that would make the Hindenburg pale in comparison.

In 2009, the Washington Nationals had a middle-of-the-pack offense (7th in the NL in wOBA) dragged down by wretched starting pitching (14th in FIP) and bullpen work (dead last in FIP).

When Washington led a game in the late innings, the ‘pen often made Jim Riggleman squirm. The Nats reliever with the highest Leverage Index (a measure of the importance of a pitcher’s appearance, based on the inning, score and base-out state) was Mike MacDougal.

In a fine example of why the save just doesn’t do a good job of measuring reliever performance, Mac was 20 for 21 in save ops during a season in which he walked more batters than he struck out (5.63 K/9, 6.29 BB/9). Somewhere, Mike Williams is smiling.

Today, the Nationals picked up RHP Brian Bruney from the Yankees for a PTBNL. For most teams, Bruney would try to settle into a mop-up role. But given the destitute state of Washington’s bullpen, Bruney could work his way into the later innings.

Injuries have taken a serious bite out of the former Diamondback and Yankee’s career. Bruney missed considerable time in 2008 with a Lis Franc sprain in his right foot, and his 2009 season was shortened by elbow problems.

Bruney misses bats (8.86 K/9 career), but his lack of control would make Daniel Cabrera blush. The 6-3 righty has issued 6.22 walks per nine innings in the big leagues.

28 in February, Bruney slings mid-90’s heat (94.6 MPH in 2009) while mixing in an upper-80’s slider. As you might expect from that gargantuan walk rate, he struggles to get ahead of hitters. Bruney’s career first-pitch strike percentage is 55.5%, well below the 58-59% MLB average. Batters have responded to the wildness by keeping the bat on the shoulder: opponents have chased Bruney’s stuff out of the strike zone just 20.2% of the time (25% MLB average).

The Washington Post quoted Riggleman as saying, “it’s undetermined who would be our closer.” The best reliever in Washington’s ‘pen is likely Tyler Clippard (9.99 K/9 in 2009), but the Nationals like to use the former starter in a multi-inning role.

Until Drew Storen ascends to the majors, MacDougal and Bruney could battle it out to see who can throw fewer pitches into the press box. Bruney certainly isn’t any fantasy owner’s ideal option, but he could pick up some saves in 2010.