Archive for Closers

NL Closer Report: June 18

Strong Performers

Jonathan Broxton | Los Angeles Dodgers
The Comments: Broxton continues to be a hot pitcher and his ERA is below 1.00 at 0.92. Even his xFIP is excellent at 1.79. He’d be even more dominant if his BABIP wasn’t high at .371. Broxton did not have a save this past week.

Heath Bell | San Diego Padres
The Comments: Bell is giving up a lot of base runners (9.55 H/9, 3.29 BB/9) but he’s striking batters out at a career-high pace (11.52 K/9). As we can see by his BABIP (.400), the hit total is not indicative of his current skill level. Bell did not have a save this past week.

Brian Wilson | San Francisco Giants
The Comments: Wilson has one of the best strikeout rates amongst closers this side of Carlos Marmol. The right-hander saved two games this past week and recorded four Ks in 3.1 innings of work.

Francisco Rodriguez | New York Mets
The Comments: The ground-ball rate is nothing to write home about (as usual) but Rodriguez has seen his strikeout rate remain solid at 11.46 K/9. He recorded three saves this past week, but he was touched up for two runs in a game against Cleveland on June 15.

Carlos Marmol | Chicago Cubs
The Comments: It’s not everyday that you see a reliever with a higher walk rate (5.58 BB/9) than hit rate (4.11) but that’s what you get with Marmol. If he can ever find the strike zone on a consistent basis, look out. His strikeout rate currently sits at 16.43 K/9. He saved just one game this past week but he didn’t blow a save and he also picked up a win against Oakland.

Billy Wagner | Atlanta Braves
The Comments: Wagner currently has a strikeout rate of 13.33 K/9, so he’s not exactly showing his age (38) right now. He saved two games this past week and did not allow a run in as many appearances.

Ryan Franklin | St. Louis Cardinals
The Comments: Franklin saved two games this past week, but his scoreless streak was stopped at nine games, as the Mariners (His former club) touched him up for a run on June 15.

Steady Performers

Francisco Cordero | Cincinnati Reds
The Comments: The veteran closer has slipped down to a tie for third place amongst NL closers for saves (17). Cordero continues to be hittable (9.00 H/9) and his xFIP of 4.07 is nothing to write home about. He did not record a save this week.

John Axford | Milwaukee Brewers
The Comments: Axford’s value has been helped by three wins in just 13 games. The rookie closer has been much more consistent than all-time saves leader Trevor Hoffman, and Axford has yet to blow a save. He did not have an opportunity this past week.

Leo Nunez | Florida Marlins
The Comments: Nunez has walked just six batters in 26.2 innings of work this season. The young closer also continues to have a much-improved strikeout rate of 9.11 K/9, thanks to an improved change-up, which he’s utilizing 44% of the time.

Matt Capps | Washington Nationals
The Comments: Capps is the only big-league reliever to hit the 20-save mark this season. However, the right-hander did not earn a save this past week and, in fact, appeared in just one game.

Matt Lindstrom | Houston Astros
The Comments: Poor command continues to keep Lindstrom from benefiting fully from his 96 mph fastball and his strikeout rate sits at just 7.24 K/9. He appeared in just one game this past week and recorded a save against the Royals.

Brad Lidge | Philadelphia Phillies
The Comments: With an xFIP of 2.60 through 10 games, Lidge has bounced back well from his injury woes. However, his formerly mid-90s fastball is currently sitting in the low-90s. He went 1-for-1 this past week in saves, but was touched up for a run against the Yankees.

Manny Corpas | Colorado Rockies
The Comments: The Rockies organization currently has Corpas and Franklin Morales at the back-end of the bullpen, and Huston Street is also close to returning from rehab. You probably want to avoid this situation until the dust settles. Neither Corpas nor Franklin recorded a save this past week.

Fallen on Hard Times

Octavio Dotel | Pittsburgh Pirates
The Comments: Despite a strong strikeout rate of 12.04 K/9, Dotel’s ERA is currently sitting at 5.84. He’s given up a lot of hits and walks. He’s given up one earned run in each of his past four appearances.

New to the Job

Aaron Heilman | Arizona Diamondbacks
The Comments: Heilman has assumed the closer’s role after Chad Qualls posted an ERA of more than 8.40 and blew four saves. Don’t get too excited, though. Heilman has an xFIP of 4.67 and a ground-ball rate of just 27.5%.


Promotions: Mathieson Finally Returns to Philly

Philadelphia Phillies placed LHP Antonio Bastardo (elbow) on the DL; recalled RHP Scott Mathieson from Triple-A Lehigh Valley.

A 17th-round pick in the 2002 draft, Mathieson boasts low-to-mid-90’s gas, a sharp slider and a workable changeup. So why is the 26-year-old righty making his first big league appearance since September of 2006? Since Mathieson reached the majors in the summer of ’06, his career aspirations have been assailed by one injury after another.

The 6-3, 190 pound Canadian emerged as a quality starting pitching prospect in the Phillies’ system. Back in 2004, Baseball America noted that Mathieson had filled out his frame since signing and gained considerable velocity on a fastball that rarely left the mid-80’s in high school. Apparently dubbed “The Goose,” Mathieson ascended Philly’s list of farm talents — number 14 prior to 2005, sixth before the 2005 campaign and fifth leading up to 2006.

His performance improved with each promotion. As a 20-year-old in the Low-A South Atlantic League in ’04, Mathieson had 7.7 K/9, 3.4 BB/9 and a 4.32 ERA. In ’05, he whiffed 8.6, walked 2.5 and had a 4.22 FIP in the High-A Florida State League. Mathieson posted a combined 3.20 FIP, 9.5 K/9 and 2.7 B/9 the following season while splitting the year between the Double-A Eastern League and the Triple-A International League. He was a fly ball pitcher, with GB rates under forty percent all along the way, but Mathieson’s velocity, K rates and improved breaking ball (he switched from a curve to a slider) earned him MLB innings in ’06.

That first foray in the majors was disastrous. Sure, the results (37.1 IP, 6.75 K/9, 3.86 BB/9, 7.47 ERA, 4.91 xFIP) weren’t great. But it’s what happened on September 2nd — he felt a “shooting pain” in his elbow — that made it a nightmare. Mathieson was shut down and underwent Tommy John surgery in late September.

While the then-23-year-old began a rehab assignment toward the end of the 2007 season, it was transient. Mathieson had to come out of a late-August game at Double-A Reading and had ulnar nerve transposition surgery that September. He didn’t throw a pitch in 2008, as he became twice Tommy John‘d that May.

In June of 2009, Mathieson returned to the bump as a reliever. Pitching mostly at Reading while also getting some work in rookie ball and at High-A Clearwater, he had 8.5 K/9, 3.3 BB/9 and a 3.08 FIP in 32.1 innings. BA ranked Mathieson 15th in Philly’s system heading into 2010, saying that he could “be an asset as a set-up man if he can stay healthy.” Our own Marc Hulet noted Mathieson’s high-octane performance in the Arizona Fall League and ranked him at the tenth best talent in the Phillies’ organization.

Prior to getting the call, Mathieson was pitching well with the Iron Pigs — 29.2 IP, 10.3 K/9, 3.6 BB/9 and a mid-three’s FIP. Per Minor League Splits, his park-and-luck-adjusted major league equivalent line is 8.3 K/9, 4.75 BB/9 and a 4.90 FIP. Mathieson’s GB% remains under 40 as a reliever, a trait that could cause some headaches at Citizens Bank Park (three-year HR park factor of 114, according to the Bill James Handbook).

Mathieson likely won’t challenge Brad Lidge or an impressive Jose Contreras for late inning opportunities at this point, but he’s worth watching. If this persevering flame-thrower can stay healthy and limit the long ball damage, he could be a nice addition to a Phillies ‘pen that ranks a middling ninth in the NL in xFIP.


Waiver Wire: June 11

Another summer weekend, and another couple of players for your pleasure. Enjoy!

Miguel Montero
, Arizona (45%)
If you’ve been reading these Waiver Wire pieces, you know we usually talk about players owned in fewer leagues than Montero. In fact, we’ve even started specializing in single-digit players, to the consternation of some shallow-league owners. Well, here’s a player that, though he’s owned in a fair amount of leagues, should be owned in at least twice as many leagues as he is. Montero put up 670+ plate appearances from 2008 to 2009, and in those PAs, he showed a strikeout rate right at 20%, an ISO above .180, and a strong batting average for a catcher. Put those pieces together and he’s easily a top-twelve catcher and should be owned in all mixed leagues. Now that he’s due back this weekend and is practically begging his team to activate him, it’s time to make sure he’s not on the wire in your league.

David Hernandez, Baltimore (6%)
Don’t fall over yourself to pick up the latest Oriole to accrue a save – it doesn’t seem that others are either. They might have heard that Alfredo Simon was called Shutdown Sauce and that Hernandez couldn’t overcome a nickname like that. There’s even the forgotten footnote Michael Gonzalez rattling around in that bullpen too. Here’s the thing, though. There’s a new sherriff in town – “interim” manager Juan Samuel – and he just recently reported that Gonzalez only hit the mid-80s in his rehab start. Simon’s K/9 in the minor leagues was a mediocre 7.4, so he’s not an obvious candidate for the role. Of course, he racked up those numbers as a starter, and could be expected to bump them up in a short relief role, but still. He was more of a fill-in guy than a person being groomed for the role. So finally we get to Hernandez, who racked up a save and has been pushed to the bullpen by the better prospects coming up behind him. With his gaudy strikeout rates in the minors (10.4 K/9), and his inability to translate those rates to the majors (6.02 K/9 career), Hernandez was a conundrum wrapped in an enigma. He’s certainly a fly ball pitcher in the wrong park (29.2% groundball rate career), and he’s really not showing it as a starter. Here’s thinking that he can recover that nice strikeout rate in short stints and actually step forward as the closer of the future. If Gonzalez truly is only hitting the mid-80s in his rehab, it wouldn’t surprise anyone to hear surgery in his future. Again.


NL Closer Report: June 11

Thirteen of the 16 teams in the National League have closers with 10 or more saves so far this season. Washington’s Matt Capps continues to lead the Majors in saves, although he’s been less effective recently.

Strong Performers

Jonathan Broxton | Los Angeles Dodgers
The Comments: Broxton is the most valuable reliever is 5X5 fantasy baseball right now and it’s not hard to understand why. The right-hander has a strikeout rate of 13.34 K/9, an 0.95 ERA and a WHIP of 0.92. This past week, he recorded three saves in as many tries.

Heath Bell | San Diego Padres
The Comments: Bell is currently second in the Majors in saves with 17. He also has an outstanding ERA at 1.33, although he’s giving up his fair share of hits. His strikeout rate remains strong at 11.67 K/9. He recorded three saves this past week.

Brian Wilson | San Francisco Giants
The Comments: Wilson is 15-for-17 in save opportunities this season and he has a strikeout rate of 12.62 K/9. Despite the good numbers, he’s still only sixth or seventh in overall fantasy value amongst NL closers… which tells you a whole lot about the quality of the closers in the league.

Francisco Rodriguez | New York Mets
The Comments: Rodriguez has been on a K-tear as of late with 12 strikeouts in his last six appearances. The right-hander saved two games in as many tries this past week.

Carlos Marmol | Chicago Cubs
The Comments: Mr. K had a reserved week; the Cubs’ closer struck out just one batter in three appearances. Even so, he gave up just one hit and one (intentional) walk. All the balls put in play against Marmol this past week – save for one – were ground balls. He went 1-for-2 in save opportunities.

Billy Wagner | Atlanta Braves
The Comments: Wagner has recovered from a slow start to the season to be the second most valuable fantasy closer in the Majors. The veteran has a 4-0 record, 10 saves and a strikeout rate of 14.05 K/9. Oh, and no one can hit him (5.18 H/9), either. He went 1-for-1 in save opportunities this past week and recorded strikeouts on five of his nine outs.

Ryan Franklin | St. Louis Cardinals
The Comments: So much for ’09 being a fluke. The veteran right-hander has proven that he can be a legitimate closer in the NL. Franklin has 10 saves in 11 tries, although he hasn’t had an opportunity since May 20. He’s given up just two hits (and no walks) during that span, totaling 8.0 innings and five appearances.

Steady Performers

Chad Qualls | Arizona Diamondbacks
The Comments: Here are some ugly stats: 7.77 ERA, 14.73 H/9 and 4 BS. Here are some positive signs: .458 BABIP-allowed, 55 GB% and 3.56 xFIP. In other words, it’s been a rough year but Qualls isn’t as bad as he seems to be; look for a smart GM to try and acquire him to shore up the seventh/eighth innings for a playoff-bound team.

Octavio Dotel | Pittsburgh Pirates
The Comments: The most impressive stat that Dotel has is the strikeout rate at 12.73 K/9. His walk rate is high, as is the hit rate. His xFIP is 4.14 and he’s giving up a ton of fly balls, as witnessed by the 26% ground-ball rate. Dotel appeared in two games this past week but did not have a save opportunity.

Leo Nunez | Florida Marlins
The Comments: Nunez continues to flash an impressive WHIP at 0.93. The King Fish also has a nice xFIP at 2.88. He made just one appearance this past week and recorded the save.

Matt Capps | Washington Nationals
The Comments: As mentioned above, Capps hasn’t been as strong recently. This past week, he went 3-for-4 in save opportunities and gave up six hits in 3.2 innings of work. His hit rate is quite high right now at 11.05 H/9 and his BABIP-allowed sits at .361.

Francisco Cordero | Cincinnati Reds
The Comments: Cordero continues to suffer from a high WHIP at 1.50 and ERA at 3.90, which significantly diminishes the value in his 17 saves. He made four appearances this past week and went 1-for-2 in saves opportunities while also giving up five hits and two walks in 4.0 innings.

John Axford | Milwaukee Brewers
The Comments: Axford, 27, has been a real find for the Brewers. The Canadian hurler has a strikeout rate of 10.29 K/9 and a ground-ball rate of 47%. His fastball sits in the mid-90s and he’s also shown good command of two breaking balls (slider and curve). He’s gone 4-for-4 in save opportunities since replacing Trevor Hoffman.

Matt Lindstrom | Houston Astros
The Comments: Lindstrom continues to see a lot of balls find holes, as he has a BABIP-allowed of .372 and a hit rate of 10.94 H/9. The right-hander was pretty good this past week with three saves in as many tries.

Brad Lidge and Jose Contreras | Philadelphia Phillies
The Comments: Lidge, back from injury, went 2-for-2 in save opportunities and appeared in three games without allowing a run. Contreras currently sports a K/BB rate of 5.00 and he’s a perfect 3-for-3 as the club’s closer. This past week, he appeared in three games but did not have a save opportunity.

Manny Corpas | Colorado Rockies
The Comments: With Huston Street currently on a minor-league rehab assignment, Corpas’ window of opportunity could be a small one. The young hurler appeared in four games this past week and went 2-for-3 in save opportunities. Impressively, he hasn’t walked a batter in 14 appearances.


AL Closer Report: June 11

There is currently a four-way tie for the most saves at the top of the American League. There are 11 pitchers that have 10 or more saves.

Strong Performers

Rafael Soriano | Tampa Bay Rays
The Comments: Not only did the Braves organization give away its 2010 first round draft pick to sign Billy Wagner, it basically gave away Rafael Soriano, who has basically been just as valuable this season (from a 5X5 fantasy perspective). Soriano is currently the top ranked reliever in the AL and has yet to blow a save this season in 15 tries. He pitched just one-third of an inning this past week.

Jose Valverde | Detroit Tigers
The Comments: Valverde is currently the second most valuable reliever is standard 5X5 leagues despite pedestrian strikeout numbers; he’s aided by an outstanding ERA and a strong WHIP. His xFIP sits at 3.56, and he’s been helped by a .136 BABIP and 96.6 LOB%.

Mariano Rivera | New York Yankees
The Comments: Rivera has come on strong as of late and now has 14 saves – and he’s 7-for-7 in saves since May 21. That’s also the last time he allowed an earned run.

Neftali Feliz | Texas Rangers
The Comments: Feliz is tied for the league lead in saves and he’s been the third most valuable AL closer so far this season. After being worked pretty hard recently, Feliz appeared in just two games this past week and recorded one save.

Joakim Soria | Kansas City Royals
The Comments: Soria continues to put up strong numbers. His K/BB rate sits at 5.00 and he has an 11.91 K/9 strikeout rate. Soria went 1-for-1 in save opportunities this past week but he was touched up for two runs against Minnesota on June 10.

Jon Rauch | Minnesota Twins
The Comments: Although he sits atop the league in saves, Rauch is a little ways down the chart in terms of overall fantasy value. This comes as a result of his low strikeout rate, as well as a modest WHIP and ERA. He went 2-for-2 this past week in save opportunities.

Steady Performers

Andrew Bailey | Oakland Athletics
The Comments: Bailey’s save numbers have improved but something is going to give unless he improves these three numbers: 5.76 K/9, 38.7 GB%, and .227 BABIP. He’s putting a lot of balls in play and a lot of those are in the air; so far, though, the home run ball has not hurt him. Bailey did not record a save this past week and he took a loss against the Twins on June 4.

Jonathan Papelbon | Boston Red Sox
The Comments: You have to wonder is Papelbon is hurting. The right-handed veteran reliever has a career strikeout rate of 10.20 but it currently sits at 7.13 K/9. As well, his walk rate has gone from 1.04 in ’08 to 3.18 to 4.50 BB/9 in ’10. He’s struggled mightily with his previously plus fastball, and his numbers have been helped significantly by a .198 BABIP. His xFIP sits at 5.02.

Bobby Jenks | Chicago White Sox
The Comments: Jenks went 2-for-2 in save opportunities this past week and did not allow a run. He also hasn’t given up a walk in five games, and his strikeout rate remains strong at 11.05 K/9.

Fallen on Hard Times

Kerry Wood | Cleveland Indians
The Comments: Things just aren’t looking good for Wood, who has a 9.58 ERA and a walk rate of 6.10 BB/9. He went 1-for-2 in save opportunities this past week. Cleveland clearly needs to try something different, which could include handing the save opportunities back to Chris Perez.

David Aardsma | Seattle Mariners
The Comments: Oh, how the mighty have fallen. On of the closer leaders for much of April and into May, Aardsma has fallen on hard times and his ERA is up to 5.21. He was touched up again on June 6 by the Angels for three runs in two-thirds of an inning. Aardsma has recorded just one save since May 26.

Brian Fuentes | Los Angeles Angels
The Comments: The Angels’ closer has had a rough year. He’s blown three saves in 11 tries and his ERA currently sits a 5.52. Fuentes also has an incredibly-low 18.9% ground-ball rate, which has led to some fairly pronounced home-run issues (3.07 HR/9). However, he’s currently posting one of the highest strikeout rates of his career (11.66 K/9).

Kevin Gregg | Toronto Blue Jays
The Comments: The walk rate has spiked all the way up to 5.88 BB/9 and Gregg cannot make it through an inning without putting at least two base runners on (each of his past four appearances) but went 1-for-1 in save opportunities this past week. Interestingly, almost all of his struggles this season have come against the best teams in the league (Tampa Bay, New York, Boston… and then Seattle).

New to the Job

David Hernandez | Baltimore Orioles
The Comments: The game of musical closer chairs continues, although the organization may have finally gotten it right this time. I’m one of the bigger David Hernandez fans out there and I think interim manager Juan Samuel has made a smart decision; Hernandez has always appeared well-suited for a relief role.


Waiver Wire: June 8

With all the hubub surrounding two nice prospects getting their first licks in the major leagues, let’s not neglect the waiver wire. We all need a little waiver love, and almost none of us have a certain Nationals pitcher on our wire. Instead, let’s look at a couple players that should almost definitely be on your waiver wire today.

Jason Motte, St. Louis (2%)
Okay, maybe if your league counts holds, Motte won’t be available. Then again, he only has four holds on the season, and he probably won’t be closing any time soon unless Ryan Franklin goes down with a (possibly beard-related?) injury. But it’s worth pointing out that Motte has finally harnessed some of his raw power and is pitching the best ball of his career. Coming up through the system, we all knew this converted catcher had gas (95.9 MPH fastball career), but there were questions about his secondary stuff. Questions like: Does he even have another pitch? Well, he’s still throwing the fastball over 70% of the time, so he does like to bring the heat. And he’s gone into extended periods of focusing on the secondary stuff and then forgetting about it. But he’s finally throwing the curveball regularly (10.2% this year), and though linear weights don’t love the pitch yet (-1.1 runs this year), obviously something is working in the overall package. On June 6th, he gave his first run in 9 and 2/3 innings, and during that ten-game stretch, he had a 13-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio. It’s that nice walk rate (2.31), combined with his booming fastball and developing curve, that makes him an interesting ratios and strikeouts reliever on teams in deeper leagues. Especially if you’re over your innings pace already.

Milton Bradley
, Seattle (4% owned)
Yeah, I know. Groan. He’s struggling through a .274 wOBA, 67 wRC+ kind of season. He’s striking out at a career-worst rate (31.4%) and walking at a career-low rate (7.8%). His ISO is his worst since he was in Montreal, and we can’t even blame his BABIP (.283) much. He’s seeing a sports psychologist, and he’s a risk to leave the team at any time. In some ways, there couldn’t be a worse candidate for your fantasy team. All of that is true, and there is very little silver lining. One okay factor is that he still has an average-ish line drive rate (18.3%), and another is that at 32 years old and of above-average athleticism, he’s not so old that we would expect a drop off this precipitous. But the final, most important piece of information regarding Bradley is this: He’s playing. Every day. Even in an 18-team, 5-OF league, all 90 starting outfielders in baseball are relevant, and leagues come deeper than this. Put him on your bench if you can because warm, starting, bodies are valuable if your league is deep enough. Then all you can do is hope he recovers some of his old form. (Hey, the psychologist thing really “worked” for John Smoltz.)


NL Closer Report: June 4

Strong Performers

Jonathan Broxton | Los Angeles Dodgers
The Comments: Broxton has offered a little bit of everything to this point: three wins, 13 saves, 1.11 ERA, and a strikeout rate of 12.95. Over the past week, he was worked hard and saved two games in as many tries over four games.

Heath Bell | San Diego Padres
The Comments: His trade value keeps going up but Bell is probably not going anywhere at this point. The closer has an excellent strikeout rate, a solid ERA and he’s third in the league in saves. He has just one save opportunity this past week and converted it.

Brian Wilson | San Francisco Giants
The Comments: Another closer with another hefty strikeout rate (13.30 K/9), Wilson has just one blown save this year. This past week, he converted his only opportunity.

Carlos Marmol | Chicago Cubs
The Comments: With 25.0 innings under his belt this season, Marmol already has 50 strikeouts (18.00 K/9) and the strikeout rate is not going anywhere. Marmol converted his only save opp this past week.

Billy Wagner | Atlanta Braves
The Comments: Wagner has posted some solid numbers this year and he finally has the saves total to show for it. The lefty recorded four saves this past week, which was more than Marmol, Wilson, and Bell combined.

Ryan Franklin | St. Louis Cardinals
The Comments: Franklin posted an 0.73 ERA in May, which was down from 3.60 in April. He hasn’t had many save opportunities lately, with his last coming on May 20. He’s worked two innings in each of his last three appearances. Franklin has walked just one batter all year.

Octavio Dotel | Pittsburgh Pirates
The Comments: Dotel’s xFIP of 3.83 suggests that he’s been a little unlucky with his 5.06 ERA. His strikeout rate is excellent at 12.66 K/9 and he added two saves this past week. He’s one of the best things about the Pirates right now; Bell is probably off the trading block but Dotel might be an interesting name come the end of July.

Leo Nunez | Florida Marlins
The Comments: The K/BB rate of 5.00 is certainly nice. His xFIP of 2.89 suggests that his success is well earned. He appeared in four games this past week and recorded three saves. He got touched up a bit in his last appearance and may have been over-worked a little bit.

Steady Performers

Francisco Rodriguez | New York Mets
The Comments: Rodriguez went 1-for-2 in saves this past week but he racked up a good number of strikeouts with seven in four innings. If he can find the command of his curve, it would really help his cause.

Francisco Cordero | Cincinnati Reds
The Comments: Surprise, surprise, a Dusty Baker pitcher is leading the closers in appearances… Cordero appeared in just two game this past week and nailed his only chance at a save. He failed to strike out a batter in either game, though.

Jose Contreras | Philadelphia Phillies
The Comments: Contreras made three appearances this past week and recorded a save in his only shot. He also gave up a run against Atlanta on June 2, which was the first time a player had scored against him since April 20. Brad Lidge is back now, so Contreras should see a decline in opportunities.

Manny Corpas | Colorado Rockies
The Comments: Like Contreras in Philly, Corpas may loss opportunities with the return of an injured pitcher in Franklin Morales. Corpas remains the favorite for the bulk of save chances, but Huston Street is also making good strides in his rehab, so monitor the situation closely.

Fallen on Hard Times

Chad Qualls | Arizona Diamondbacks
The Comments: The 15.79 H/9 is an ugly number. Qualls made two appearances this past week and blew his only save opportunity.

Matt Capps | Washington Nationals
The Comments: Capps continues to lead the Majors in saves but he notched just one this past week and blew saves in consecutive games against Houston on June 1 and 3. He gave up five runs last week but his ERA is intact because they were all unearned.

Matt Lindstrom | Houston Astros
The Comments: Lindstrom is in a funk. The right-hander has blown three of his last four save opportunities, including two against Washington. He’s fighting his command right now and has walked five batters in his last four games.

New to the Job

John Axford | Milwaukee Brewers
The Comments: Axford has been a breath of fresh air with a strikeout rate of 13.03 K/9 and a hit rate of just 5.59 H/9. The rookie hurler is 3-for-3 in save opportunities on the year and he nailed both his opportunities this past week.


AL Closer Report: June 4

Strong Performers

Joakim Soria | Kansas City Royals
The Comments: Tied for the third most saves in the AL, Soria continues to post a very good strikeout rate (12.19 K/9) and to struggle with the long-ball (21.1% HR/FB). He recorded five outs this past week and three came via the strikeout.

Andrew Bailey | Oakland Athletics
The Comments: He’s still fighting his command a bit – especially with the curveball – but Bailey is coming on strong now. The sophomore closer saved three games this past week in as many tries.

Rafael Soriano | Tampa Bay Rays
The Comments: You must call him Mr. Soriano now. The Rays made a great move in acquiring the veteran reliever this past off-season as he’s really secured the back-end of the bullpen. Now the league leader in saves, Mr. Soriano saved two games this past week despite struggling with his control.

Neftali Feliz | Texas Rangers
The Comments: Feliz hasn’t allowed an earned run in eight games. The young pitcher appeared in just one game this past week and earned the save. The time off was probably a good thing as he’s appeared in more games than any other closer in the AL. Interestingly, Feliz is an extreme fly-ball pitcher with a ground-ball rate below 23%.

Mariano Rivera | New York Yankees
The Comments: Rivera saved two games this past week and has allowed just one hit in his past five appearances. The veteran also hasn’t allowed a run during that time frame.

Steady Performers

Jonathan Papelbon | Boston Red Sox
The Comments: Despite modest overall numbers, Papelbon continues to get the job done with 13 saves in 14 tries. He nailed both his attempts this past week but he was touched up against Oakland for a one run on a solo homer.

Jon Rauch | Minnesota Twins
The Comments: Rauch has a healthy number of saves but his ERA, WHIP and strikeout rate are nothing special. He saved three games this past week: two against Texas and one against Seattle.

Jose Valverde | Detroit Tigers
The Comments: Valverde continues to post a shiny ERA below 1.00 but, while he has been good, he’s also been lucky. The right-hander has enjoyed a BABIP-allowed of .157, as well as a LOB% of 96.6. He’s had just one save opportunity since May 12.

Bobby Jenks | Chicago White Sox
The Comments: Jenks recorded the save in his only opportunity last week. The right-hander has an ugly ERA that has been impacted by some bad luck. He’s given up runs in just one game over the past seven and he tends to give them up in bunches. Jenks was torched for three runs on May 26 and four runs on May 9.

David Aardsma | Seattle Mariners
The Comments: Aardsma went 1-for-2 in save opportunities over the past week and gave up three runs against the Angels on May 30. He hasn’t been overly sharp lately and has struck out just one batter since May 26.

Brian Fuentes | Los Angeles Angels
The Comments: Fuentes recorded a win and a save for his owners but he got beat up a bit by Kansas City and gave up two runs on June 3. He has not gotten a batter to hit a ball on the ground (for a hit or an out) in five games.

Kerry Wood | Cleveland Indians
The Comments: Wood saved two games over the past seven days but he also gave up a run and a walk in each game. After being hurt for a good portion of the season, Wood might be rounding into shape, but that’s not saying a whole lot.

Fallen on Hard Times

Closer by Committee | Baltimore Orioles
The Comments: Well, when you’ve lost eight games in a row there is not a big need for a closer. That’s a good thing, since the club has been snake-bitten with its back-end of the bullpen. All three relievers who have seen time there (Mike Gonzalez, Alfredo Simon, Jim Johnson) are hurt. It’s closer by committee right now.

Kevin Gregg | Toronto Blue Jays
The Comments: It was an ugly, ugly week for Gregg who has quickly gone from one of the best stories of the year to a pumpkin. Used four times this past week, the veteran reliever saved two games – while making it interesting – and blew another one. Actually, he didn’t just blow it… he exploded it with five sticks of dynamite (also known as walks). With four runs allowed in that game, his ERA has taken a huge hit. He’s walked 11 batters in his last seven games.


Octavio Dotel’s Turnaround

Yesterday Mike looked at starting pitchers who improved during the month of May. One reliever who deserves a mention in this category is Octavio Dotel. At the end of April Eno wrote a piece about who in the Pirates bullpen could replace him. It was a legitimate question to ask, as Dotel allowed runs in his final six games of the month. Here was his line in April:

9.1 IP, 15 H, 11 ER, 5 BB, 12 Ks, 10.61 ERA

As you might expect, that line came with a .456 BABIP and an 18.8 HR/FB ratio. But at age 36 and in his first year with the Pirates, it was reasonable to think that he would not be given a long time to straighten things out. Dotel was given four games off and Evan Meek picked up a save on the penultimate day of April. Then Meek entered the game in the seventh inning in his next two appearances. He pitched the ninth inning on May 7th and picked up the loss. Since then, Meek has returned to a setup role and not pitched in a close game in the ninth inning.

The Pirates were able to return Meek to a setup role due to a 180 turn in pitching performance by Dotel. Since May 1st Dotel has appeared in 12 games and posted the following line:

12 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 6 BB, 18 Ks, 0.75 ERA

In those 12 games, Dotel has recorded 9 Saves and a Win. He went from a 2.143 WHIP in April to a 0.833 WHIP in May plus one game in June. So, what happened to make him so bad in April and so good once the calendar turned? First, let’s look at the stretch where he gave up runs in six straight games.

4/13 – 2B to Schierholtz, HR Velez (both batting lefty)
4/16 – 3B to Dickerson (LHB), SF Cabrera (RHB)
4/18 – HR Bruce (LHB)
4/22 – 1B Counsell (LHB), 2B Edmonds (LHB), 1B Escobar (RHB), 1B Weeks (RHB), 1B Parra (LHB)
4/26 – 1B Fielder (LHB), BB Hart (RHB), 2B Zaun (LHB), HR Escobar (RHB)
4/28 – 2B Braun (RHB), 1B McGEhee (RHB)

Lefty batters were just killing Dotel in April. Six of the eight extra-base hits he allowed in the above stretch came versus lefties. You know things are bad when Parra, in the game as a reliever, comes on and delivers a base hit. Flash forward to May+ and here was Dotel’s line against LHB:

1-10, SAC, 3 BB, 3 Ks

The one hit was an RBI triple by Kosuke Fukudome for the only run allowed by Dotel in the period. Overall Dotel has allowed 10 hits in 27 ABs to LHB, meaning they were 9-17 (.529) with a .1.176 SLG mark against him in the opening month of the season.

Trouble versus lefties is nothing new for Dotel. Last year LHB put up a .268/.422/.577 line in 90 PA. In his career lefties have a .749 OPS versus Dotel while righties have a.655 mark.

Given how the Pirates stuck with him through his first rough patch and were rewarded with outstanding pitching, it is hard to imagine Pittsburgh demoting him from the closer’s role any time soon. The best chance for Meek or Brendan Donnelly to pick up saves is if the Pirates flip Dotel to a contender. According to Cot’s Dotel does not have a no-trade clause. But a team option for 2011 becomes a mutual option if he is traded. His contract calls for a $4.5 million salary in 2011, a significant amount yet not a poison pill for any potential contender. If Dotel is not traded, the Pirates hold a $0.5 million buyout for 2011.

So, Dotel is a good option for Saves in the next two-to-three months. His April troubles came about due to bad misfortune against a subset (LHB) who already hit him well. But before you make him a trade acquisition target, understand there is a very real chance he could be dealt to a contender and moved to a setup role at or near the trade deadline.


AL Closer Report: May 28

Strong Performers

Neftali Feliz | Texas Rangers
The Comments: Feliz has had his ups and downs but he’s done very well in the role, as witnessed by his league-leading (with Rafael Soriano) 13 saves. He’s shown excellent control for his age but he may eventually get himself into trouble with a ground-ball rate at just 22%. Over the past seven days, Feliz has notched two saves in as many tries.

Joakim Soria | Kansas City Royals
The Comments: Soria’s strikeout (11.84 K/9) and walk (2.84 BB/9) rates remain good but he’s still getting burned by the long ball (23.5% HR/FB). He saved two games this past week.

Rafael Soriano | Tampa Bay Rays
The Comments: Soriano shares the league lead in saves with Neftali Feliz. Soriano, though, is doing it with a fair amount of luck involved. His xFIP is 4.28 and he’s benefiting from a 90% LOB rate, as well as a .222 BABIP-allowed.

Steady Performers

Andrew Bailey | Oakland Athletics
The Comments: The ERA (0.96) and xFIP (4.18) certainly seem to suggest Bailey has not been quite as good as it might seem. His strikeout rate is also 4.50 K/9 off of his rookie mark, which is a massive drop. Even so, he’s holding his own in the closer’s role and saved three games this past week. He hasn’t allowed an earned run in five games.

Jose Valverde | Detroit Tigers
The Comments: It’s amazing what a .144 BABIP-allowed and 96% LOB rate will do for your ERA (0.46). Valverde has 11 saves but his K/BB rate is just 1.56. He’s received just one save opportunity since May 12.

Mariano Rivera | New York Yankees
The Comments: Rivera’s xFIP of 4.33 is significantly higher than it’s been over the past nine seasons. As well, his strikeout rate is about 2.00 K/9 off his career mark. He did save three games this past week but did it without a strikeout. The reliever has fanned just one batter in his past six appearances.

Jonathan Papelbon | Boston Red Sox
The Comments: Papelbon appeared in just one game this past week and recorded the save. The right-hander appears to have recovered from an early-season issue with his control.

David Aardsma | Seattle Mariners
The Comments: Aardsma continues to show improved control this season while maintaining a solid strikeout rate (10.13 K/9). He saved two games this past week and did not allow a hit or a walk.

Brian Fuentes | Los Angeles Angels
The Comments: The home run rate is ugly at 3.09 HR/9 and his ground-ball rate is a crazy-low 21.2%. He’s gone three games without having a ball hit on the ground – for either a hit or an out. Fuentes appeared in just one game this past week and recorded the save.

Jon Rauch | Minnesota Twins
The Comments: Rauch has hit a bit of a rough patch. The veteran right-hander pitched two innings this past week and gave up five hits, one walk and three runs. He blew his only save opportunity. Even so, he remains a good bet in the closer’s role.

Fallen on Hard Times

??? | Baltimore Orioles
The Comments: With both Mike Gonzalez and Alfredo Simon suffering from injuries, the Orioles bullpen is in a bit of a mess right now. Oakland scored five runs against the O’s in the eighth inning of last night’s game, which pretty much underlines the issues in the bullpen. Cla Meredith was charged with the blown save. Will Ohman could also see a save opp or two.

Kevin Gregg | Toronto Blue Jays
The Comments: Gregg’s overall numbers have taken a hit recently; his strikeout and walk rates are basically mirroring his ’09 season with Chicago. The big difference continues to be the improved ground-ball rate and the related ability to keep the ball in the yard. He did not record a save this past week and Gregg has given up four runs in his last two appearances. During that span, he walked four and did not strike out a batter.

Bobby Jenks | Chicago White Sox
The Comments: The .450 BABIP-allowed and 5.82 BB/9 rate continue to play havoc with Jenks’ numbers. He gave up three runs in his last appearance against Cleveland but it was a non-save opportunity.

Kerry Wood | Cleveland Indians
The Comments: It’s been a rocky return from the DL for Wood but he finally recorded his first save of the year this past week against Cincinnati. His control may be improving, as he hasn’t walked a batter in three appearances. He could move up to the “Steady Performer” category with a respectable week.