* Anyone not named Billy Butler and Joakim Soria, obviously.

The Royals traded their two longest tenured players in separate deals this winter, first shipping David DeJesus to the Athletics before sending Zack Greinke to the Brewers in what probably qualifies as the winter’s biggest blockbuster. That has left the team’s roster pretty barren in terms of fantasy talent, at least outside of Butler and Soria. Let’s dig through the team’s 40-man roster and see if any of their notable pitchers are worth drafting in a standard 12-team league. We’ll cover the position players tomorrow.

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We know that Huston Street will close for the Rockies in 2011 assuming he’s healthy, but that’s not the safest of assumptions to make. The former AL Rookie of the Year missed just about the first three months of the 2010 season with a shoulder issue, then battled an oblique strain as Colorado was making a last gasp run at a postseason berth in late September. Should Street go down for an extended period of time next season, manager Jim Tracy will have his pick of several top notch setup men to use in the ninth inning. Let’s take a look at each, sorted by 2010 gmLI (average LI when the player enters the game).

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Red Sox GM Theo Epstein has done a bang up job strengthening his team this offseason, and I’m not just talking about the Adrian Gonzalez and Carl Crawford pickups. He’s remade one of the game’s least effective bullpens in part by picking up righty killer Dan Wheeler and former White Sox closer Bobby Jenks as free agents. In winter that has seen three-year contracts handed out to relievers like candy, the Sox got Jenks and Wheeler for three contract years combined. What does this mean for saves in Boston?

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Two tidbits of news today might mean two new closers – about par for the course at baseball’s most volatile position. Let’s take quick look at the (possible) moves and what they mean.

Chicago White Sox Non-Tender Bobby Jenks
Jenks actually put up the second-best strikeout rate and the second-best groundball rate of his career last year, and though he missed some time with injury, he reversed a mini-trend in his velocity when he showed the third-best fastball velocity of his career. All of this, added to some really poor luck on batted balls (.368 BABIP) and moderately bad luck stranding men on the bases (65.4%), and he had one of those seasons where his overall stats (4.44 ERA, 1.37 WHIP) were out of line with better-looking fielding-independent numbers (2.59 FIP, 2.62 xFIP). Hey, it happens a lot in 50-inning stretches out of the bullpen. In any case, though he’s twice crossed the 2.0 WAR threshold, he probably wouldn’t have been worth the $10 million an arbitration panel may have awarded him, so it made sense for the White Sox to let him go.

Or, it makes sense because they already have a better, cheaper option in place. Matt Thornton may only have one pitch, and he may have had a reputation for blowing saves in the past, but he works that one pitch well, did decently when given save chances this past year (three saves, none blown in September), and only costs $3 million this year. Judging from his three straight years with double-digit strikeout rates and walk rates under three per nine, he should make for a solid buy at closer in 2011 drafts. Only health can keep that fastball from booming.

Jenks should also make a fine buy for a team that isn’t forced to pay him $10 million. Perhaps the Rays would like to look at him as their closer on a short-term, low-money, make-good deal? That would make three new closers possibly minted today.

The Angels Close to Signing Hisanori Takahashi
Given the history of the Angels, this one is far from a lock (the deal’s not even done yet). They’ve run through back-end bullpen options like popcorn at a blockbuster over the past few years, and they still own one of those would-be closers, Fernando Rodney. On top of that, Takahashi can start or relieve, and his overall stats are not so overwhelming that they scream ‘closer.’

But that’s not to say he couldn’t easily end up being a great bargain closer in 2011. For one, the Angels starting staff is full. Jered Weaver, Dan Haren and Ervin Santana are locks, Joel Piniero should be fine, and the number five can easily be (under)manned by Scott Kazmir and Trevor Bell. Also, Takahashi’s numbers were much better in relief. In 57.1 relief innings, he had a 9.42 K/9, 3.45 BB/9, 2.59 FIP and 3.54 xFIP. Those numbers actually rivaled those of Francisco Rodriguez and led AmazinAvenue to award Takahashi the title of Best Reliever for the past season. So it looks like the Angels want him as a reliever, which is good, since Tak2 hasn’t always been the most durable of pitchers.

Now the question is if the Angel’s management will have Tak2 close over Rodney. Given that the incumbent hasn’t struck out a batter per inning for a couple years now, and hasn’t ever shown a walk rate better than average, the answer should be easy enough. Then again, he has almost seven miles of fastball velocity on Takahashi, and gas has made better men than Mike Scioscia go a little loopy.

In today’s edition of ADP Crowdsourcing, I take another suggestion from reader Dale. Someone get this man a free hat, or another gift of some kind! Results from last week’s round of voting will be up at noon (eastern) today, so don’t forget to check that out.

Joe Nathan has long been a fantasy stud, because he can give you close to 100 strikeouts a year from the relief pitcher position. Plus, he’s given you 35+ saves in every year he’s active for the Twins, and his low ERA combined with high innings count can make a huge impact on your total pitching numbers, compared to what some other closers can do for you.

If I had to complain about Nathan, I’d moan about how he doesn’t get enough ground balls, but he’s still likely to be above the 40% mark in that area, so it’s hard to get worked up about it. I’d also mention that Nathan’s velocity was slipping a bit even before his injury, but he was still able to get batters to swing and miss at a high rate. Again, nothing to really complain about.

Nathan’s case is going to be a very interesting test, because he didn’t even see the field during the 2010 campaign, and this will be the first time we’ve tried a closer. I’m expecting a fairly large deviation on this one. Will Nathan still be viewed as a top flight closer on a good team, or will owners be a little skittish? That’s for you to decide.

Below is a link to the voting form, and please read the wording carefully. This is not where you would draft him, but where you think he’ll be drafted in most leagues. For the voting, we’re assuming a 12-team standard league, using 5×5 scoring.

To submit your vote, click here.

All this week, I’ve been looking at potential keepers at each position that you may be on the fence about. Now, a look at some relief pitchers.

David Aardsma
Everyone expected Aardsma to regress this year, and his ADP reflected it. While he did do some regressing, he still has quite a bit in front of him. He gave up less fly balls this year, yet his BABIP dropped even lower. He still saved owners 31 games, but he didn’t even come close to touching last year’s value.
Crude 2011 Projection: 3.60 ERA, 5 saves, 8.5 K/9, 4.3 BB/9
Verdict: Cut. The reduced number of saves is because I think he’ll be traded by the Mariners shortly after the offseason begins.

Matt Capps
The Nationals made a great decision this offseason, bringing Matt Capps in to be their closer. They ended up getting a solid prospect for him, and the Twins will be relying on him during this postseason. With Joe Nathan coming back, will the Twins send Capps packing, or will they keep him as insurance?
Crude 2011 Projection: 2.85 ERA, 10 saves, 7.5 K/9, 2.1 BB/9
Verdict: Cut. While he’s a good pitcher, he’s not guarenteed to get saves next year. Play a wait and see approach with all of the Twins’ relievers.

Jonathan Broxton
Broxton was completely dominant during the first half of the year. He didn’t give up an earned run in April, and had a FIP of 0.19 during that month. 0.19! Something happened in the second half, though, and Broxton began to walk too many batters. The Dodgers lost all confidence in him, and he lost his job as the closer.
Crude 2011 Projection: 2.75 ERA, 30 saves, 11.3 K/9, 3.5 BB/9
Verdict: Keep. I don’t think he’ll slip in drafts, and he should be an elite player next season.

Daniel Bard
Bard didn’t pitch quite as well as expected, but he still did pretty well for himself. His value will all come down to Papelbon. Will he stay or will he go?
Crude 2011 Projection: 2.60 ERA, 27 saves, 9.0 K/9, 3.2 BB/9
Verdict: Keep. I think Papelbon gets traded, but the Red Sox bring in a veteran or two to keep Bard on his toes.

Drew Storen
As soon as he was drafted, Storen was labeled the Nationals “closer of the future.” The Nationals had him put his work in for the minor league affiliates, and then gave him some chances once Matt Capps was traded. With a full season in the organization under his belt, will the Nationals turn over the ball to Storen in the ninth inning?
Crude 2011 Projection: 3.33 ERA, 20 saves, 9.0 K/9, 3.5 BB/9
Verdict: Keep. Like Bard, I think he becomes the closer but loses some opps to a veteran presence.

If you have a relief pitcher you’re on the fence about, leave it in the comments. If I see a player showing up in the comments multiple times, I may do a writeup on them for next week.

A little turmoil today leads to two easy waiver wire pickups. Run don’t walk!

Michael Wuertz, Athletics (20% owned)
Looks like Andrew Bailey is going to Dr. James Andrews and is done for the year. That sounds terrible because it is. Well, the ‘done for the year’ part is not so terrible considering there are two weeks left, but the ‘Dr. James Andrews’ part is pretty bad. Wuertz has been good but not great this year – the strikeouts are still there (9.31 per nine), but he lost all the gains he made last year with his control. His walk rate (4.6 BB/9) is too close to his career level (4.05 BB/9) to think that this is really fluky. Instead, it looks like last year’s walk rate (2.63 BB/9) is the outlier. It’s a shame, but he has the punch to close, at least against right-handed lineups (3.29 career FIP against righties). His 4.21 FIP against lefties probably means that Craig Breslow will steal a save or two (3.43 FIP against lefties career). Together, that’s a decent closer, although a long-term injury to Bailey would have the Athletics hoping that Wuertz can corral the slider better next year. He does throw the pitch a whopping 65% of the time.

Mike Aviles, Royals (22% owned)
Well, maybe you don’t have to run to get Mike Aviles in your lineup. But Chris Getz did get shut down after experiencing renewed dizziness after working out today. He’s probably done for the year, given how long other concussion victims have been out this year. Aviles didn’t quite take the season by storm, as his ISO (.093) never got back to his career levels (.118). That’s sort of important, considering he doesn’t walk (4.4% career), and the only other offensive skill he offers is “not striking out” (11.2% this year, 13.8% career, average usually around 20%). In the last thirty days, however, Aviles has hit over .300 with power and speed and has been more than a decent middle infield stopgap. He’s not a great player, and while he has more power than Getz, the fact that Getz walks more, has more speed, and is a better defender will probably win out long term.

Chris Sale, White Sox (Owned in 8% of Yahoo leagues)

Bobby Jenks‘ return from a right forearm injury has slowed, opening the door for Sale to snag saves in September. The 6-5, 170 pound beanpole with a low three-quarters delivery threw all of 10.1 innings in the minors after Chicago took him in the first round this past summer, but he’s impressing in the show with premium velocity from the left side.

Sale, slinging his fastball at an average of 96.2 MPH while mixing in low-80’s sliders and upper-80’s changeups, has struck out 23 batters in 17.2 IP. While he has issued 10 walks to go with all those K’s, the Florida Gulf Coast product has a 3.19 xFIP in a tiny sample. White Sox GM Kenny Williams has said that Sale will enter 2011 as a starter, but he’s certainly worth a roster spot closing out games for the South Siders in the meantime.

Madison Bumgarner, Giants (29%)

Bumgarner became a prospect darling on the basis of a mid-90’s fastball that singed batters in the low minors, but panic ensued last season when the 6-4 lefty’s velocity dropped into the upper-80’s. In 2010, Bumgarner has assuaged concerns that he was hurt or destined to fall well short of the expectations that helped him rank as a top-15 farm talent (according to Baseball America) over the past two years.

Still just 21, Bumgarner pitched decently at Triple-A Fresno (82.2 IP, 6.4 K/9, 2.4 BB/9 and a 4.31 park-and-luck-adjusted FIP, per Minor League Splits). Since being recalled to the majors in late June, he has whiffed 6.36 batters per nine innings, handed out 2.18 BB/9 and has a 4.22 xFIP. Bumgarner hasn’t blown hitters away, with an 84.1% contact rate that’s four percentage points above the big league average, but he is getting hitting his spots. He’s getting a first pitch strike 60% of the time (58.9% MLB average), and has placed 48.4% of his pitches over the plate (46.6% MLB average).

Though Bumgarner was once seen as an unrefined arm with heat and rudimentary secondary stuff, he has made use of all four of his pitches. He’s throwing his fastball about 57%, a mid-80’s slider 20%, a mid-70’s curve 12% and a low-80’s change 11%. Bumgarner’s not getting a ton of whiffs — his fastball has been whiffed at 6% of the time that it has been tossed (about average). His slider has an 8.6% whiff rate (13% MLB average) and his changeup comes in at 10.2% (12.1% MLB average). That leaves his curve (11.9 whiff%, 10.5% MLB average) as the only pitch with an above-average whiff rate.

However, he’s showing sharp control of all his offerings. Bumgarner has thrown his fastball for a strike 67% of the time (60-64% MLB average), 65.1% for his slider (62.7% MLB average), 61.9% for his curve (58% MLB average) and 67.5% for the change of pace (60.9% MLB average).

It’s also worth noting that Bumgarner’s fastball velocity has been on the rise. He sat 89.7 MPH in June, 90.5 MPH in July, 91.6 MPH in August and is averaging 92.8 MPH so far in September. Bumgarner is pretty good right now, but there’s more upside here if he starts flirting with those 2008 radar gun readings.

The closer battle in Florida might seem like just another notch in the ‘relievers are just failed starters’ way of thinking. Both the incumbent, Leo Nunez, and the challenger, Clay Hensley, have started games at different points in their careers. Given the fact that manager Edwin Rodriguez has already said that Nunez will probably get his job back, it’s not a great idea to drop Nunez wholesale. How much of a threat does Hensley actually represent, though?

His present rates look nice – he has a 9.47 K/9 and 3.25 BB/9 that are both above-average even for relievers – and his luck stats don’t seem to suggest a major regression coming (.286 BABIP, 77.7% LOB, 2.88 FIP). Counting on them to continue in the face of his career rates (6.34 K/9, 4.02 BB/9), however, seems dicey at best. The nice groundball rate (51.9% this year, 52.7% career) looks steady and repeatable, and should always give him a stable level of effectiveness to fall back on.

But it’s the major jump in strikeout rate that has made him a closer option. This is the first year he’s spent the entire year in the bullpen, so a jump could be expected. Jeremy Greenhouse found that moving to the bullpen can give you about 0.7 MPH of fastball velocity, and cited research from Tom Tango that you’d expect a reliever to gain about 17% K/PA in the switch. We haven’t seen the velocity jump for Hensley – he has been showing an 88.7 MPH fastball this year, 88.7 MPH career. Hensley has also seen his strikeout rate jump almost 50% over his career rate, so he’s obviously changed something other than his throwing schedule.

Looking at his pitching mix, one thing jumps out immediately. Hensley has gone from featuring his slider as his best second pitch (8.8% this year, 19.8% career) to focusing more on his curveball (22.4% this year, 9.9% career). In general, he’s throwing his secondary pitches more often, as he’s also upped his changeup usage (21.2% this year, 12.5% career). While the changeup and slider are close enough in velocity that the two pitch f/x systems on our site see them differently, the reduced use of the fastball looks legitimate. Given the linear weights on his slider (+16.7 runs career) and curveball (+10.1 runs career) compared to his fastball (+5.3 runs career, -10.7 runs 2008-2009), this seems like a legitimate change in pitching approach – to his benefit.

Still, as strong as his work has been this year, Hensley has only put together 63 innings at this level of play. It’s the first time since his rookie year in 2005 – another year in which he primarily relieved at the major league level – that he’s put up an FIP under four. To compare, Nunez has put up sub-four FIPs in two of the last three years, and he’s had almost a strikeout per inning over his last 120 innings. Still, given the fact that Nunez has a career strikeout rate (7.04 K/9) that is comparable to Hensley’s (especially once you take out this year’s 9.64 K/9, a career high for Nunez), and owns a similar history of moving from the rotation to the pen, it’s possible that Hensley is next year’s Leo Nunez.

This year, though, you have to give some credence to what the manager says. It also makes sense to take the reliever with the larger sample size of success if you are looking for saves in Florida.

Some thoughts on a couple of Dodgers to help wrap up the day. Please note that I will not actually be working blue during this article, because I like this gig and would prefer not to lose it.

Dodgers Closers

It’s been a wild ride, but it appears that Jonathan Broxton is back in the closers role. Joe Torre removed Broxton from the ninth inning almost two weeks ago, and after three dominant innings, Torre’s confidence in him was restored. He gave up two runs on Sunday, but he’s still a dominant pitcher on a .500 team, so don’t worry about him.

In his stay, Hong-Chih Kuo picked up a save on August 14th. Two days later, he gave up three runs and was charged with the loss, leading Torre away from the flame throwing lefty. Torre may have considered turning to Octavio Dotel, but he blew the game in the tenth inning a couple of days later.

The boys in blue have three hard throwing relievers who know how to strike batters out, and Torre isn’t afraid to turn to turn to any of them in high leverage situations. Broxton is the closer for now, but Dotel (36% owned) and Kuo (32% owned) aren’t bad guys to have on your roster.

Jay Gibbons | 0% Owned

A former two-and-a-half win player, Gibbons has been given a chance by the Dodgers. He destroyed Triple-A pitching this year, hitting 19 homers in under 400 plate appearances. While he hasn’t gotten too many chances in the bigs, he’s hit two homers in 22 trips to the dish. He had a great line-drive rate in the minors, and while it doesn’t feel like it, he’s only 33 years old. He could still be a major league contributor at the dish, and the Dodgers did well to give him a shot. While he won’t play everyday, keep an eye on Gibbons and add him if something goes down in the Dodgers outfield.