If the 2009 Major League Baseball season were to begin today, there would be a lot of uncertainty behind home plate for most of the clubs in the American League East. Aside from the New York Yankees organization, which features veterans Jorge Posada and Jose Molina behind the dish, the remaining clubs have big question marks.

The Baltimore Orioles club does not currently have a catcher on its 40-man roster, although it does feature three non-roster invitees for spring training: Chad Moeller, Jose Reyes, and Guillermo Rodriguez. The club is expected to hand the No. 1 starting role to phenom Matt Wieters, who spent 2008 in both High-A and Double-A, where he batted a combined .353/.452/.599 in 434 at-bats. Despite his inexperience, it would not be shocking to see Wieters become the most productive backstop in the AL East next season.

In Boston, barring a late return from former captain Jason Varitek, the club could end up with some very poor offensive numbers from some fringe catching prospects currently on the 40-man roster, including George Kottaras, Dusty Brown and Mark Wagner. Kottaras has the most MLB experience of the trio, but with just five at-bats, that is not saying much. He hit 22 homers in Triple-A in 2008, but managed a batting average of just .243. Brown, 26, had a nice line in Triple-A in 2008 at .290/.374/.471, but he struck out 81 times in 297 at-bats (27.3%). Wagner has the best chance of developing into a starting catcher at the Major League level, but he is also the furthest away having spent the 2008 season hitting .219/.297/.363 in 342 Double-A at-bats at the age of 24. His offensive numbers prior to 2008 were much more encouraging.

In Tampa Bay, Dioner Navarro is pretty much entrenched behind the plate, having appeared in 120 games for the club last season. But he may need more rest after also appearing in 119 games in 2007 and that job will likely go to either Shawn Riggans, or John Jaso. Riggans was the go-to reserve in 2008 before injuries ruined his season. Even when healthy, though, the 28-year-old hit just .222/.287/.407 in 135 at-bats. Jaso is the organization’s catcher of the future, but he has just 118 at-bats above Double-A, including 10 at the Major League level. He is not quite ready for a regular roster spot.

In Toronto, the Canadian dollar’s decreased value has not helped the club in its search for a capable replacement for departed free agent Gregg Zaun. The job is likely going to be handed to former second round draft pick Curtis Thigpen, who had a horrendous offensive season in 2008. He managed a line of just .222/.264/.310 in 361 Triple-A at-bats and an average of .176 in 17 big league at-bats. He has the potential to hit for a better average but he lacks power and his defence is nothing to write home about. Luckily, the 25-year-old has some competition on the way in the form of two prospects who will be splitting time behind the dish in Triple-A in 2009: J.P. Arencibia and Brian Jeroloman. Arencibia, 22, hit 27 homers and drove in 105 runs last year over two minor league levels. Jeroloman is a stellar defensive catcher who walks more than he strikes out and posted a .427 OBP in 2007 and a .396 OBP in 2008. Rod Barajas will be the main catcher for Toronto in 2009 and he is coming of one of his better offensive seasons in the last couple of years with a line of .249/.294/.410 in .349 at-bats.

There is plenty of time for the AL East clubs – especially Boston – to improve their offensive potentials behind the dish. Even New York, which appears set at catcher, could face rough times if the picture remains the same in April as it is now. Posada is coming off his worst offensive season in years, including his lowest wOBA since 1999, and can now be considered an injury risk given his age (37) and games played (just shy of 1,500).

If you’re looking for offence from a catcher for your Fantasy Baseball team in 2009, consider the projected starters from the AL East in this order: Wieters, Posada, Navarro, Barajas, Kottaras. As for the remaining catchers, Arencibia and Jaso are names to stash away for 2010 and beyond.

Quick: name the catcher with the highest slugging percentage (minimum 270 plate appearances) in 2008. Geovany Soto? No. Kelly Shoppach? Nope. Brian McCann? Closer, but not quite.

The answer, believe it or not, is Mike Napoli, with a whopping .586 mark. While the Angels backstop has yet to receive a full-time job in his three big league seasons, he has proven more than capable of crushing the ball on a regular basis.

Yes, Napoli does strike out. A lot. In 714 career at-bats, the 27 year-old has whiffed at a 31.2% clip. However, unlike Cleveland’s Shoppach (another high power, low contact catcher) Napoli combines his extra-base pop with a very keen batting eye. He posted a rock-solid .374 OBP in the minors, and that plate patience has carried over to the majors rather seamlessly. Napoli has drawn free passes 14.3% of the time, rarely straying outside of the strike zone (23.4 O-Swing%). Napoli’s batting average won’t be pretty, but he possesses the walks and power to remain a very productive hitter.

Napoli’s power is impressive regardless of his position, but it’s downright heavenly for a catcher. Owner of a career .493 slugging percentage and a gargantuan .245 ISO, Napoli took his slugging exploits to even greater levels last year. Granted, it was only 274 PA, but Napoli’s .313 ISO was the best of any batter receiving at least 270 PA, surpassing demi-god/cyborg Albert Pujols (.296), and his wOBA of .399 ranked 15th in the big leagues.

The Angels’ 17th-round pick in the 2000 draft has yet to receive a full-time gig for two reasons: 1.) Napoli suffered ankle and hamstring injuries in 2007, as well as a shoulder ailment in 2008 and 2.) the Angels have taken a liking to catch-and-throw backstop Jeff Mathis. Mathis was once a well-regarded prospect himself, but offense dried up upon reaching AAA Salt Lake City, and he has authored a sickly .195/.272/.326 line in 589 career PA. It is pretty difficult to conceive of a scenario where Mathis’ defense atones for that sort of offensive performance (and, Napoli actually posted better caught stealing percentages in 2006 and 2007, before Mathis bested him in ’08 while Napoli dealt with a shoulder injury).

Mike Napoli might not be as well known as some other players who don the tools of ignorance, but his potent bat makes him an intriguing choice on draft day. Napoli may miss a few games with some bumps and bruises, and Brad Ausmus proxy Mathis could steal a start here and there. But how many catcher possess secondary skills of this caliber? The Bill James projection system forecasts a .252/.361/.512 line for Napoli in 449 AB, with a whopping 31 home runs. Perhaps you might think that’s a tad optimistic, but even more conservative estimates would place Napoli among the top-hitting catchers in the major leagues. If you want an Angelic performance from your starting catcher, Nab Napoli while you still can.

Prior to 2008, Pirates catcher Ryan Doumit had endured something of a snake-bitten career. A well-regarded prep prospect coming out of the state of Washington, Doumit was snatched up by the Bucs in the 2nd round of the 1999 amateur entry draft. The 6-1, 210 pounder displayed his potent bat throughout his minor league career (.296/.368/.459), but he had his fair share of detractors as well. In addition to a rough defensive reputation that earned him the ignoble nickname “Ryan No-Mitt”, Doumit had a difficult time staying on the field. As the 2004 Baseball America Prospect Handbook noted, “injuries to his back, knee and hand have dogged Doumit since he turned pro.” Despite the raw receiving skills and the history of bumps and bruises, BA still asserted that Doumit had “the stuff to be a No. 1 catcher in the majors.”

The switch-hitter made his big league debut in 2005, batting .255/.324/.398 in 257 PA. He appeared in 50 games as a catcher, while also seeing a little time in right field. While Doumit appeared positioned to spend a good deal of the 2006 season in the majors, injuries once again felled him, as he hit the DL with a strained hamstring in both April and June. Doumit only got 178 PA during the injury-marred season, batting a tame .208/.322/.389. Between the hamstring injury, a lack of confidence by management in his defensive skills and Ronny Paulino’s batting average-filled rookie campaign, Doumit spent the majority of his time at first base. In his first two seasons in the majors, Doumit drew walks at a 6.8% clip and struck out a lofty 23.7% of the time.

In 2007, Doumit finally showed the offensive promise that his minor league dossier suggested, batting .274/.341/.472 in 279 PA. His control of the strike zone remained about the same (8 BB%, 23.4 K%), but his .198 Isolated Power was mighty impressive for a guy capable of playing behind the plate. Of course, the Pittsburgh regime didn’t seem to recognize that last point, as Doumit spent more time in right field than he did at catcher. Injuries once again kept Doumit from taking the field on a regular basis, as he missed time with a sprained wrist in August and a high ankle sprain in September.

Following a front-office purge last offseason, Doumit was given a clean slate. He and Nate McLouth were both afforded the opportunity to shed old organizational labels (Craig Wilson redux for Doumit, 4th outfielder for McLouth). Realizing that Doumit’s bat could make him a premium backstop (as opposed to an offensively average, defensively-challenged corner outfielder), GM Neal Huntington, manager John Russell and the rest of the new guys allowed the 27 year-old to prove himself as a capable receiver.

While he’ll never earn great marks behind the plate, Doumit was adequate afield and mashed his way into everyday playing time. He did serve yet another DL stint with a fractured thumb in May, but his .318/.357/.501 line in 465 PA surely caught the attention of fantasy owners everywhere. In addition to showing plenty of sock (.183 ISO), Doumit improved his strikeout rate significantly. While he struck out well over 20% of the time during his first few seasons in the majors, Doumit whiffed just 12.8% in 2008. Doumit didn’t draw many walks (5.1 BB%) and his Outside Swing Percentage (O-Swing%) jumped from 25% in ’07 to 30.6% in ’08. Ordinarily, one would be worried about those hacking tendencies. However, in Doumit’s case, there appears to be a method to his aggressive approach. Each season in the majors, Doumit has improved his Contact% and O-Contact% markedly:

2005: 72.7 Contact%, 39.1 O-Contact%
2006: 74.3 Contact%, 48.8 O-Contact%
2007: 77.6 Contact%, 54.2 O-Contact%
2008: 81.9 Contact%, 66.0 O-Contact%

Doumit is chasing more pitches out of the zone, but he is also putting the bat on the ball far more frequently. With well-above average power for the position, a lower whiff rate and a line-drive bat (23.4 LD%), Doumit has the makings of an elite fantasy catcher. However, if you draft him, have a solid backup plan in mind. Those who wear the tools of ignorance take a beating, and Doumit’s injury history is too lengthy to ignore. Doumit has all the offensive skills to be an asset, but there’s just no telling if how often he’ll be able to take the field.

Playing on the same team and at the same position as the hottest player in the Arizona Fall League (Tyler Flowers of the Atlanta Braves organization), Lou Marson did not get a lot of press this past month. However, the 22-year-old backstop prospect is poised to surface in Philadelphia in 2009 – and he has above-average offensive potential at a position that does not traditionally generate a lot of production for fantasy baseball team owners.

Marson was selected out of an Arizona high school in the fourth round of the 2004 draft. His first three pro seasons were spent in relative obscurity thanks to average to below-average offensive numbers. Something clicked, though, in the summer of 2007 when Marson – then 21 – hit .288/.373/.407 with an ISO of .120 in 393 High-A at-bats.

The catcher, who swings from the right side, then improved even more in 2008 at the Double-A level, where he hit .314/.433/.416 in 322 at-bats and earned a one-game appearance at the Major League level. Marson still hasn’t shown much power (.102 ISO in 2008) but his eye at the plate has improved significantly – with an increase in BB% from 11.7 in 2007 to 17.4 in 2008. Marson also had a successful Arizona Fall League in Flowers’ shadow. The Philly’s prospect hit ..324/.425/.588 in 34 at-bats against some of the better pitching in the minor leagues.

Standing – or squatting – in Marson’s way to a Major League career are Carlos Ruiz, 29, and Chris Coste, 35. Both veteran catchers are right-handed and neither one had overly successful offensive seasons. Ruiz hit .219/.320/.300 with an ISO of .081 in .320 at-bats, while Coste managed a line of .263/.325/.423 with an ISO of .161 in 274 at-bats. Ruiz’ off season in 2008 definitely leaves him vulnerable to the incoming young talent. The organization’s second round pick from 2004, Jason Jaramillo, has also spent the last two seasons in Triple-A and should be a capable big league back-up whenever his skills are needed. The Phillies also recently added A-ball Australian prospect Joel Naughton to the 40-man roster.

A little more time at Triple-A certainly won’t hurt Marson, but he is close to being ready to contribute at the Major League level and add his name to the young, talented offensive core in Philadelphia.

When All-Star catcher Victor Martinez went down due to injury, the Cleveland Indians figured to suffer a significant loss of production behind the plate. Instead, a former trade throw-in stepped to the fore and bashed 21 home runs, third-most among all backstops. Kelly Shoppach, a long-time Red Sox prospect picked up in the Andy Marte/Coco Crisp deal in January of 2006, made the most of his first opportunity at substantial major league playing time. While Marte continued to play his way into oblivion (-1.81 WPA/LI), Shoppach emerged as an important cog in Cleveland’s offense.

The former Baylor star batted .261/.348/.517, good for a 1.24 WPA/LI that ranked 7th among catchers. Shoppach’s .256 Isolated Power (ISO) topped his position by a healthy margin, besting Colorado’s Chris Ianetta by 16 points, and ranked 14th among all hitters with at least 400 PA.

While Shoppach has clearly proven that he possesses as much power as any player behind the dish, there are several reasons to expect a downturn in his performance, should he again see significant playing time in Cleveland or elsewhere.

Shoppach whiffs. A lot. In fact, only Three True Outcomes hero Jack Cust went down via strike three more often than Shoppach, who tied D-Backs third baseman Mark Reynolds with an ignoble 37.8 K%. As one would expect from such a high strikeout rate, Shoppach has significant issues making contact. His 64% contact rate ranked ahead of only Reynolds among all batters with at least 400 PA. Shoppach made contact with just 73.4% of pitches swung at within the strike zone, 3rd-worst among hitters (you guessed it, Reynolds and Cust rank 1st and 2nd). It’s not as though he’s a hacking mess at the plate (Shoppach drew walks at a 9.3% clip in 2008 and his O-Swing% was an average 25.6%), but chances are, he’ll either hit the ball across state lines or miss it entirely.

With a player like Shoppach who strike out so frequently, the ball is being put in play less often than it would be for a hitter with a more average contact rate. As such, hitters with high K rates are more prone to fluctuation in their Batting Average on Balls in Play (BABIP). Fewer opportunities for the ball to be put in play means a higher degree of variability, due to the smaller sample size.

Given Shoppach’s 18.6 Line Drive rate (LD%), we would expect his BABIP to come in around .306 (expected BABIP is LD% + .120, so .186 + .120 = .306). Shoppach’s actual BABIP? .359. That number is likely to tumble considerably in 2009. Players who strike out nearly 40% of the time just don’t hit .261 for any sustained length of time.

There’s no doubt that Kelly Shoppach can mash with the best of them behind the plate. However, his colossal K rate makes him a target for plenty of regression this upcoming season. If we adjust for his line drive rate and subtract those extra 53 points of average (the difference between his .359 BABIP and his .306 expected BABIP), Shoppach’s batting line is pared down to .208/.295/.464. The 28 year-old is a valuable player when he hits .260, but that’s just not going to continue. Barring huge gains in the contact department, Shoppach could be appealing to Pedro Cerrano’s shrine on a regular basis, deploring the existence of those darned curveballs.

Matt Wieters had quite the start to his professional career.

The 5th overall pick of the 2007 draft began the season at high-A ball, where he destroyed poor souls on the mound to the tune of .345/.448/.576 with 15 homers in 69 games. He also walked nearly as many times (44) as he struck out (47).

Wieters then took his one-man show to double-A, where the demolition continued. Wieters actually hit better with Bowie, smacking opposing pitchers around at a .365/.460/.625 clip, and blasting 12 homers in 61 games. He continued his impressive plate discipline as well, actually managing more walks (38) than strikeouts (29).

Wieters’s season is eerily reminiscent of another young catching prodigy: Joe Mauer, in 2003. That year, Mauer began the season at high-A ball, where he hit .335/.395/.412. Mauer too was promoted to double-A at mid-season, where he hit .341/.400/.453. Mauer also walked as often as he struck out, an impressive feat for any minor league hitter. The two biggest differences are the facts that Wieters was 22 years old this year, while Mauer was only 20 back in 2003; and that Wieters displayed more power this year than Mauer did in 03.

Fantasy players know what happened with Mauer: he developed into a consistent threat to win a batting title – although his power remains questionable to this day. However, Mauer is a solid comparison for what to expect from Wieters. Wieters began his professional career at a later age than Mauer, but also put up even more impressive numbers than Mauer did. So far, Wieters appears to be Joe Mauer with power.

The question is: how much power? Expect Wieters to hit for a solid average right away, as he not only posted very high averages in the minors this year, but he also showed extremely impressive plate discipline and the ability to put the ball in play. However, I wouldn’t expect Wieters’s power to translate entirely to the majors in 2009. Although he did hit 27 homers (in only 130 games) this year, he hit the ball on the ground a little too often: only 35% of his balls in play were fly balls.

Wieters is still a candidate to hit 10-15 homers and perhaps even approach a .300 batting average (although .280 or so is more likely), making him a fine catcher in 2009. His long-term potential is immense, and he’s tremendously valuable in keeper leagues. He will likely get the call to the majors relatively early in the season (perhaps as soon as April), and he should make an impact from day one. While he’s a good bet to have more power than Joe Mauer, it’s unlikely that he’ll hit 20-25 homers in his first season.

Things did not look good for Chris Iannetta when the Rockies re-signed catcher Yorvit Torrealba to a two-year deal prior to the start of the 2008 season. But Iannetta took over the starting job in mid-June and delivered 18 HR and 65 RBIs in 333 at-bats. Now, fantasy players are salivating over the prospects of a power-hitting catcher playing full time in Coors Field.

Iannetta prospered thanks to a .240 isolated slugging percentage. He had a flyball rate of 40.7 percent and when he hit the ball in the air, it left the park at an 18.2 percent rate. Iannetta destroyed lefties, batting .275/.398/.550 versus southpaws.

The big red flag surrounding Iannetta is his strikeout rate. He struck out in 27.6 percent of his at-bats last year, which would have ranked 10th in the majors if he had enough at-bats to qualify. However, Iannetta did not have such a poor contact rate in the minors. In 803 at-bats in the minors, he had a 20.7 K% and at Triple-A it was 17.1 percent.

In 2008, Iannetta hit virtually the same at home as he did on the road. He posted an .893 OPS in Coors and an .897 mark in neutral road parks. This was due to a fluke BABIP split, in which he posted just a .276 mark in his home games.

Iannetta should get around 150-200 extra at-bats next season as the Rockies’ full-time starter from the beginning of the season. Those extra plate appearances, along with an expected improvement in his Coors Field numbers, will boost him to the top half of fantasy catchers, with a chance to move into elite status if he can maintain his solid road numbers.