Yesterday I debuted our aggregate pre-season Catcher Rankings, so today I just wanted to throw out a few names of players whom I think will steadily rise through the ranks as the season progresses. Sorry to all you Carlos Santana fluffers, but I don’t feel the need to perpetuate the hype. His play will do enough of that this season. But here are a few to keep in mind: Read the rest of this entry »
It’s backstop day at the RG, as we debuted our rankings and then profiled the top five targets and some deep sleepers. Now it’s time to look at the middle of the rankings, identify some guys that are falling in this year’s drafts, and decide if they merit more love.
Matt Wieters
Once projected to be a superstar in his rookie season, the shine has seemingly come off of Wieters, and he’s all the way down to near-double digits in our rankings. Here’s a thing I discovered while researching this piece about Carlos Santana, however: it does seem that catchers take a little longer to develop their offense. Whether it’s because they focus on defense and game calling first, or because they are one of the worst offensive positions overall, it takes a few years. Switch-hitting catchers from Victor Martinez to Jason Varitek and Jorge Posada all took until 25 or later to bust out. Wieters is 24 and that, as well as his minor league record, is probably the best statistic in his favor. With incremental improvements in his walk rate, strikeout rate, swinging strike rate, and ISO, there are other statistics that back up the idea that perhaps Wieters shouldn’t be sliding this far. Consider taking him slightly ahead of his ADPs (130.04 at MDC, 111.2 at Yahoo) in order to snag his upside.
Jorge Posada
If age is the reason to be up-beat about Matt Wieters, then it’s the reason that Jorge Posada is falling in drafts and rankings this year. And of course we have to temper any expectations that we might have for him because of his age. The record for at-bats for a catcher over 39 is Carlton Fisk with 454 (second is Fisk at 452, third is Bob Boone at 405, and those are the only seasons over 400). Fisk is also the only person to ever hit more than double-digit home runs after 39, as he hit 23 at 39, 19 at 40, 13 at 41 and 18 at 42. So, if you’re taking Posada, you’re basically hoping he’ll be the best or second- best old catcher ever. Of course, that’s possible, because Posada’s 22 home runs in 2009 were the third-best number ever by a catcher over 37. He’s done it before. Oh, and he’s going to DH this year, which will have to be counted as a positive even if he hasn’t done so well in that role before. It should, at the very least, help him get more ABs.
Miguel Montero
Montero is young-ish (27), and once hit .294 with 16 home runs, and yet he’s falling in drafts this year (125.6 ADP in MDC, 158.2 in Yahoo). The ADPs might be reasonable, but is he worth picking after the tenth round is completed? Maybe (hah). A full, healthy season from Montero could produce a home run total in the mid-teens and a decent batting average for a catcher, judging from his career .267 number in the category. Can he stay healthy? He’s only officially hit the DL twice in his carer – for right knee surgery in 2010 (62 days missed) and for a fractured finger in 2008 (31 days missed) – and yet he’s averaged only 313 PAs since 2007. It looks like Montero is best drafted as part of a quantity, not quality approach late in your drafts. Pick him and Posada late in the game and you’ll probably have a decent catcher this year, one way or the other.
Here are two catchers who should be available for $1 in most leagues that have a good chance to outproduce that price due to their power.
Last year, a Rangers’ catcher with a baseball bat was kind of like a mule with a spinning wheel; nobody knows how he got it and danged if he knows how to use it*. Ok, that may be a bit of an exaggeration, but the sentiment remains. Other than the Mariners’ backstops, you could make a strong case that Texas catchers combined to have the worst offensive season in baseball. They hit .214/.288/.320 while muscling just 13 balls over the fence despite playing in hitter-friendly Arlington. 2011 should prove to be a different story as the Rangers traded for Mike Napoli and signed Yorvit Torrealba to don the tools of ignorance – instantly upgrading production at the position.
Napoli qualifies as a catcher, but will likely end up being more of a rover; receiving more starts at first base and designated hitter, leaving a majority of the catching atbats to Torrealba. As a Padre last season Torrealba had arguably the best season of his career, hitting .271/.343/.378 with seven home runs and seven steals – incredibly hitting .312/.394/.429 at pitcher-friendly Petco Park. While the home numbers are inflated by an unsustainable .396 BABiP, he is moving to the hitter friendly confines of Arlington. Marcel projections, which don’t take parks into effect, project Torrealba for eight home runs in 2011. Given what a good hitter’s park Arlington is, I wouldn’t be shocked to see him pass that number this season.
*Any chance I get to weave in a Simpsons’ quote, I’m going to take it
Most of the attention garnered by Tampa Bay Rays’ catchers last season was centered around John Jaso. That kind of thing happens when you hit .263/.378 (AVG/OBP) with five home runs, and four steals in 404 plate appearances as a rookie. Kelly Shoppach went unnoticed as a result – and with good reason. He missed more than a month due to injury and hit just .196/.308/.342 with five home runs and 17 RBI in 187 PA’s.
The Rays are going to platoon the two backstops, leaving the right handed Shoppach to do what he does best – mash left handed pitching. He has a career .949 OPS against southpaws, compared to just .679 against RHP. While 2010 was a down year overall Shoppach still showed he had a little pop, posting a .193 ISO against LHP. That number is good, but a far cry from his absurd 2008 and 2009 totals of .272 and .321. If healthy, and properly platooned – 2010 was the first time in three years he had more PA’s vs LHP than RHP – there is an excellent chance he could find his power stroke once again and cross the 10 home run barrier.
A side note: If I’m wrong and he falls flat on his face, look for newly acquired Robinson Chirinos to get a shot at the right handed platoon role.
Earlier today Howard debuted our preseason catcher rankings, and three familiar names sat at or near of top. Joining them were a pair of players that started last season in the minors but excelled in (somewhat) limited big league action and grabbed a premium ranking in what is traditionally fantasy’s thinnest position.
The 2011 baseball season is almost upon us, so we here at RotoGraphs put our collective heads together to come up with some aggregate positional rankings. I’ll be taking the lead all year with the catchers, but as a group, here’s what we came up with for now:
| Penthouse on Park Avenue |
| Joe Mauer |
| Brian McCann |
| Buster Posey |
| Victor Martinez |
Despite last year’s power decline, we know the potential is there so Mauer gets the nod for the top spot. Welcome to the big time, Buster!
| Comfy Living |
| Carlos Santana |
| Geovany Soto |
| Mike Napoli |
| Jorge Posada |
| Matt Wieters |
Happy to have any one of these guys on my roster. Santana is on the rise, but this could be the last chance for Wieters in the fantasy trust department.
| Small House in the ‘Burbs |
| Kurt Suzuki |
| Miguel Montero |
| Chris Iannetta |
| Russell Martin |
| Carlos Ruiz |
| John Buck |
| Yadier Molina |
Stable group of guys who can just tow the line for your backstop position. Martin could be a nice sleeper in hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium.
| Shoebox Apartment |
| John Jaso |
| A.J. Pierzynski |
| Miguel Olivo |
| Ryan Doumit |
| J.P. Arencibia |
| Josh Thole |
| Rod Barajas |
| Ryan Hanigan |
| Jesus Montero |
No major investment needs to be made here. Some will rise, some will fall. Arencibia’s power potential puts him at the top of the sleeper list.
| Sharing a Room |
| Yorvit Torrealba |
| Jarrod Saltalamcchia |
| Jonathan Lucroy |
| Alex Avila |
| Nick Hundley |
| Chris Snyder |
Maybe a pair of diamonds in the rough in Lucroy and Snyder, but I wouldn’t want to invest more than a buck on the rest of the lot.
| Shanty-town |
| Jason Kendall |
| Jason Castro |
| Ramon Hernandez |
| Kelly Shoppach |
| Wilson Ramos |
| Ivan Rodriguez |
You’ve got to be pretty desperate to be living with these guys on your roster.
We’ll all be chiming in throughout the week with more detailed thoughts on some of the backstops and the overall rankings will be updated on a monthly basis, so stay tuned for more!
Over the last four or five years, Joe Mauer, Brian McCann, and Victor Martinez have been the gold standard for fantasy catchers. Jorge Posada was a fine fourth wheel for a while, and now Buster Posey is forcing his way into the picture, but for the most part it’s been those three and everyone else. We have every reason to expect Mauer and McCann to continue their greatness in 2011, but what about the new Tiger V-Mart? The various projection systems aren’t bullish on him this year. Let’s round ’em up…
Ah yes, the contract year. It’s a very real phenomenon, something our own Dayn Perry brilliantly analyzed in Baseball Between The Numbers. Fantasy teams benefit from contract years just as much as real teams do, and if you’re lucky you’ll roster one or two such players a year. This is 100% subjective on my part, but I put together a list of five position players that could be primed to explode in 2011 with their eyes on a contract for 2012. Tomorrow we’ll tackle some pitchers.
Well, so much for that. Two of my recent posts were rendered obsolete or close to it in fell swoop yesterday. Time for some updates…
In today’s ADP Crowdsourcing, we go back to looking at a star, and and are using pick number as our unit of measurement because of it.
Joe Mauer was a certifiable star heading into 2010 fantasy drafts. The catcher had hit close to 30 home runs, signed a massive extension and helped the Twins move into their new ballpark. His 2011 was far less spectacular, even though he ended up posting 5 WAR. Mauer ended 2010 with 9 homers, 88 runs scored and a .327 batting average. That line would have been more than acceptable from any other catcher, but after the numbers Mauer put up the year before, it was seen as a disappointment.
By now you’ve heard about and have had time to digest the blockbuster trade that sent Vernon Wells and his entire contract to the Angels for Juan Rivera and Mike Napoli. It was a stunning transaction that pitted one of the game’s youngest and brightest GM’s against a team mired in apparent desperation after a rather uneventful offseason, but man, it still took a day or two to wrap your head around that monster. As fantasy players, we get to celebrate Napoli’s freedom from Mike Scioscia and his Jeff Mathis love-fest.