Archive for Catchers

Iannetta, Hernandez: Catchers On The Move

We’ve seen many catchers already changing teams this off-season. Most of the moves have been of little consequence to the fantasy owner, as backstops John Jaso, Gerald Laird, Jose Molina, Rod Barajas and Taylor Teagarden are not men of great social or political import. The Angels and Rockies set out to change that this past Wednesday.

New Angels General Manager Jerry DiPoto, obviously not a fan of the “offense” Jeff Mathis had been providing the team, dealt starting pitcher Tyler Chatwood to Colorado for Chris Iannetta. He never seemed to have the backing of the Rockies’ front office – his name always swirled in trade rumors – or manager Jim Tracy. His low contact rates will keep him from hitting for a good average but the 15-20 home run power and excellent plate discipline more than make up for it. The 28-year-old hit .238/.370/.414 with 14 home runs, 55 runs batted in and even added six steals in 426 plate appearances last season.

To compare, the Angels trio of catchers combined to hit .190/.253/.301 with 10 home runs, 49 runs batted in and one steal in 605 plate appearances. You almost have to try to be that bad. Iannetta has benefited from playing in Colorado where his career .869 OPS is excellent, but his road total of .707 is still good relative to his position. His power numbers may dip a bit in pitcher friendly Anaheim but given ~400 plate appearances he should continue to be among the top half of fantasy catchers next season.

To replace Iannetta the Rockies signed veteran Ramon Hernandez. The soon to be 36-year-old hasn’t collected more than 352 plate appearances since 2008 – catching is hard, ya know? – but has hit well in the time he’s been allotted. Over the past two seasons Hernandez’s .790 OPS ranks 10th among all catchers with at least 650 plate appearances. He doesn’t hit for the power he once did but his contact rate has remained steady over the years. I mentioned that Iannetta had been helped by his home park but he pales in comparison to Hernandez. Playing in Cincinnati’s bandbox the past three seasons Hernandez had an average OPS of .854 compared to .680 on the road. He certainly made a smart decision moving to Coors Field.

The main drawback with Hernandez is his age. He turns 36 in May, and after a hot start to last season that saw him hit .322/.377/.539 with 10 home runs before the all-star break he tumbled down hill the rest of the way hitting just .220/.287/.305. His skills are declining, maybe not as much as his second half would indicate but declining nonetheless. Playing in Coors should mask some of his inabilities, and he’ll likely get more playing time than young Wilin Rosario, but don’t set your expectations too high for 2012.


Jaso, Lobaton and Molina: American League Catching Changes

It wasn’t a trade that garnered a lot of attention, but Seattle’s acquisition of 28-year-old catcher John Jaso from Tampa Bay carries an impact that will be felt in both cities.

In Jaso the Mariners get a selective left handed bat, the polar opposite of incumbent catcher Miguel Olivo. Calling Jaso selective may be an insult to the word. Of the players with a least 650 plate appearances over the last two seasons, only two, Brett Gardner and Bobby Abreu, have a lower swing percentage than than Jaso’s 34.8%. The man’s more passive than Gandhi. This can be both good and bad. The good is that he’s not at the plate hacking like Olivo, who had the fifth highest swing percentage from ’10-’11. The bad is that pitchers can get ahead of you easier when you’re swinging at the first pitch just 18 percent of the time when league average is close to 30. If a pitcher tries going after the easy strike too many times Jaso has to make him pay, and that’s something he failed to do in 2011. Looking at his .224/.298/.354 line from last season isn’t quite fair. Dave Cameron had a nice write up of the trade yesterday at USSMariner.com, concluding with this paragraph

As long as Jaso is able to maintain his contact rates and the level of power he’s shown to date, history suggests that he’s going to be something close to a league average hitter going forward. His 2011 performance is the absolute floor for a player with his skills, and given some natural bounce in his BABIP, he should easily be expected to be a positive offensive contributor next year.

If that’s the case then Olivo should have a platoon partner next season. Olivo is the type of player who’s far, far more valuable in fantasy than he is to his actual team. Most leagues don’t use on base percentage, so his career mark of .279 is of little consequence. He has 15-20 home run power, which is important considering the dearth of quality offensive catchers. Over the last three seasons Olivo has hit the third most home runs (56) and has the fifth most RBI (185) among catchers. Over the past three seasons he hasn’t had a noticeable platoon split either. Jaso obviously has less of a sample size to work with, but his OPS of .720 against right handed pitchers is .115 points higher than it is verses southpaws.

Seattle manager Eric Wedge is fond of Olivo. I don’t expect to see a straight platoon out of these players. Unless Olivo completely hits rock bottom he should continue getting a majority of the starts. Maybe not the 130 games he played last season, but thanks to Jaso’s horrid defense he should maintain his value going forward. Unless you’re in an A.L. only or some other very deep league Jaso has no place being selected on draft day.

With the departure of Jaso, and the unlikelihood of Kelly Shoppach returning, the Rays are going to have a whole new catching tandem in 2012. Jose Molina and Jose Lobaton, or as R.J. Anderson dubbed them last night, Dos-e, form an unlikely duo. First off, neither has much fantasy value. The right handed hitting Molina had a career season in 2011, hitting .281/.342/.415 in 55 games which was mostly fueled by a .363 batting average on balls in play. He’ll be splitting time with the switch-hitting Lobaton, he of 56 career big league plate appearances. He never hit for a very good average in the minors, constantly in the .240-.260 range with 5-10 home run power, but did post a walk rate north of 10 percent in all but one stop. Unless Robinson Chirinos has an amazing spring and Lobaton goes down in flames expect Dos-e to be the options in Tampa Bay, which is not a good thing for fantasy owners.


As For the Rest of the Twins…

It’s been less than  a month since the Twins fired Bill Smith and replaced him with new GM Terry Ryan and after just two quick moves in free agency, the Twins roster looks to be a taking a different shape for 2012.  The signing of Jamey Carroll and subsequent announcement of him as the team’s new starting shortstop put the incumbent middle infielders on official notice while the signing of Ryan Doumit sheds some light on the club’s confidence in DL regulars Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau and possible departure of other free agents.  We’ve already had Dan Wade cover Carroll and the infield and Chris Cwik has given his thoughts on Doumit’s situation, but how about the team beyond?  What does this mean for Mauer and Morneau?  Does Doumit’s signing put an official end to Michael Cuddyer’s and Jason Kubel’s tenure in Minnesota?  And finally, what does all of this mean for fantasy owners?

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Is Ryan Doumit the New Mike Napoli?

Mike Napoli was one of the most valuable fantasy catchers last season. Hell, Napoli was one of the best “real-life” players in baseball last season as well. How did this happen? Well, Napoli was finally given the opportunity to shine. Ryan Doumit looks to be in a similar situation next season, as the Minnesota Twins may utilize him in a similar manner. Opportunity knocks for Ryan Doumit in 2012, but can he answer the call?
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Ryan Doumit Needs the American League

While you never want to be cast aside by the only team you’ve ever called home for your entire professional career, the Pirates refusal to pick up Ryan Doumit’s $7.25M option may have been the best thing that could have happened to him as a baseball player.  It may have been nice to continue playing for a team whose amazing turnaround in 2011 caught the eyes of MLB and its fans, but in an effort to extend his playing career, Doumit needed to move on.  His time in Pittsburgh has run its course.  He needs to go somewhere that can showcase that offensive potential that has had us champing at the bit since he first showed up in 2005.  He needs to go somewhere where his defense behind the plate won’t be such a liability.  He needs to go to the American League.

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How Will Buster Posey Start/Finish?

We all saw the collision last season.  Brutal.  Ugly.  Images of Buster Posey writhing around, face down in the dirt, pounding the ground with one hand, clutching his leg with the other, resonated not just with Giants fans, but with baseball aficionados all over that were adamant about changing the rules to protect catchers from such happenings.  The debate was long and arduous and still without resolution.  But while that aspect of the moment can continue to be discussed in forums off the field, the real question now is wondering how the soon-to-be 25 year old Posey will come back.  Will he return to the elite status with which he finished 2010/started 2011 or will there be some lasting negative backlash from the ankle injury that prematurely cut down his sophomore campaign?

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Yadier Molina, Offensive Threat

When you think Yadier Molina, you probably think snap throws that send runners sprawling back to first base, balls expertly blocked in the dirt and perennial Gold Glove love from managers and coaches. His bat rarely gets much attention. That should change, though, following Molina’s big 2011 season for the NL’s best offensive club and eventual World Series champion.

Yadi batted .305 for the Cardinals, posting a .349 OBP and a .465 slugging percentage in 518 plate appearances. For comparison, the cumulative line for MLB catchers in 2011 was a measly .245/.314/.390. Molina’s .349 Weighted On-Base Average established a new career high and ranked sixth among catchers logging at least 300 plate appearances (sandwiched between Carlos Santana and Brian McCann). How did the Flying Molina Brother do it? By taking to the air, of course.

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2012 Catcher Free Agents on the Move

First off, a very hearty congratulations to the St. Louis Cardinals on their hard-fought 2011 World Series championship.  That was certainly a performance for the ages, from the late season comeback to steal the Wild Card spot to the Game 6 heroics that helped push the Series to the brink.  But while the conclusion of the World Series brings the end of the 2011 season, it also brings us to the official beginning of the 2012 season.  That’s right, it’s free agency time!  The Hot Stove League can be one of the most exciting times as teams get ready to rebuild for a run at next season’s championship.  It also keeps us fantasy leaguers on our toes as we too try to rebuild and prepare for a run at our own title next year.  Players have officially filed, so let’s take a look at the fee agent catchers and whose potential move could have notable fantasy impact. Read the rest of this entry »


2012 Catcher Keeper Rankings — Honorable Mentions

As I said in yesterday’s Tier 4, I have to draw the line somewhere as to which players are worthy of keeping and which ones should be thrown back into the pool.  That line has now been drawn.  However, I would be remiss if I didn’t mention a few names of some young up and comers that I think will blossom into potential keepers and, if you believe in them enough now, could warrant consideration for 2012 depending on how much they are going to cost you.  Again, relative value is up to you, but here are a few guys worth mentioning.

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2012 Catcher Keeper Rankings — Tier 4

As we make our way through these rankings, let me just add in one thing.  While relative value is something we have left for you to ultimately decide, there are certain players whom I consider keeper worthy and those that aren’t in spite of things like the Fantasy Value Above Replacement spreadsheet that we have been using.  Sure, Yadier Molina may have outproduced Wilson Ramos according to our 2011 retro value, but am I keeping a catcher who is moving into his ninth season and will turn 30 years old at the All Star break because suddenly, out of the blue, he doubled his home run production last year?  Probably not.  It’s very difficult for me to think that a player who put up near identical numbers for his first seven seasons, suddenly can double his ISO mark in his eighth year and maintain that as his future level of production.  I see it more as a statistical anomaly than anything else.  Therefore, like each and every year prior, I would not even consider keeping Molina and subsequently must leave him off these rankings.

So today, I’ll throw out a few names of players to continue what we’ve done and tomorrow will finish it off with a few honorable mentions.  There will be some players left off this list, but again, we’re calling them keeper rankings and not every player is worth keeping.

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