At the request of you, the readers, we are covering the early Average Draft Position (ADP) results by individual position Over the past week, you’ve seen results for Second Basemen and AL Starting Pitchers, so now it’s time to cover the boys behind the plate. Here are some early ADP results for the Catchers with a few thoughts added in. Read the rest of this entry »
For at least the last decade, the Houston Astros have been a veritable wasteland for offensively productive catchers. From years of service courtesy of the light-hitting Brad Ausmus to unsuccessful rookies like J.R. Towles and Jason Castro to a failed experiment with an aging Ivan Rodriguez to the punchless veteran Humberto Quintero, there hasn’t been an Astros backstop worth looking at in fantasy since the days before Craig Biggio was moved to second base. However, with the recent signing of Chris Snyder, that could all change here in 2012.
Minor League contracts with an invitation to spring training have been popping up like wildflowers this offseason and have seemingly become more common in recent years than they were in the early part of the decade. Frequently, it’s a way for teams to get a good look at an aging free agent without committing either the roster spot or any amount of money they’ll actually miss.
That doesn’t mean that players on an NRI are inherently worthless, especially in a fantasy context were you can let the team do the heavy lifting of figuring out whether a player has much left to offer. For deep-league players, especially those in two-catcher, AL- or NL-only leagues, there’s talent floating around in the minor league pool that will likely get a shot at a backup job. The most promising of the bunch: J.R. Towles.
Towles was once a shiny prospect in the Astros organization, a catcher that could hit, flashed a little bit of power, and could throw out a few runners — enough to make it possible that he’d stick behind the plate anyway. It’s hard to look at Towles’ stats and say that he had a fair chance and threw it away; he’s never had more than 175 major league PAs in a season and even his time in the minors has been fragmented. Injuries have played a role, though the exact extent to which that has been his Waterloo is hard to tell given the state of minor league injury data.
Nevertheless, the fact remains that he can play enough defense to stick behind the plate and has a minor league OPS of .859. He’ll turn 28 just before camps open, so it isn’t as though you have to hope against all odds that he’ll recapture the promise of his youth. The question is whether he’ll be able to make the team or if he’ll have to hang out in Rochester until a roster spot opens up. The Twins are rather stocked on catchers with Joe Mauer, Ryan Doumit, and Drew Butera all already on the roster, but that doesn’t mean the way is barred for Towles.
Mauer and Doumit don’t exactly have the best record of staying healthy and the Twins seem content with the idea of rotating the two between catching, first base, and DH in order to keep both bats in the lineup while lessening the catching load. What this means is that there’s a real possibility that they’ll carry a traditional backup catcher, meaning Towles need only beat out Butera and he’s on the roster. Which is doable, but might be difficult.
This time last year, Towles wouldn’t have had a prayer of beating out Butera, who the Twins like for his ability to handle the pitching staff and throw out runners. He is, in almost every way, your quintessential all-glove-no-hit backup catcher and the team believed they could live with that. What they thought they could live with was a player who hit .220 and threw out about a third of baserunners in whatever limited playing time they got. In 2011, Butera threw out just under a third of those who ran against him — a perfectly fine rate — but hit just .167/.210/.239 in over 250 PAs. Butera is still a better defensive catcher than Towles, so if the Twins want to carry a catch-and-throw catcher, it’ll be Butera and Towles will head to Triple-A. If they think there’s a chance that whoever fills the role is going to get anywhere near the 250-300 PAs that Butera got last year, Towles will get a definite chance to show he can still hit in camp.
For the vast majority of fantasy players, Towles will still be too deep to use even if he makes the roster. However, he’s worth following through camp for players in multiple-catcher leagues, as he isn’t guaranteed to be mediocre and with the respective injury histories of Mauer and Doumit, he’ll have as good a shot at concerted playing time as any third catcher in baseball.
Regardless of which side of the fence you sit on as to who got the better end of the deal, Friday’s trade between the Mariners and the Yankees — Michael Pineda and Jose Campos for Jesus Montero and Hector Noesi — was a solid baseball deal that will improve both clubs in areas in which each were lacking. The Yankees were starving for arms and the M’s were in desperate need of a legitimate impact bat for the middle of their anemic lineup. We’ve already heard from Michael Barr on the fantasy angle of Pineda’s move to pinstripes, so let’s tackle the other side for immediate impact. Say what you want about Montero’s limited number of at bats at the major league level; this guy can hit. If you believe, then welcome aboard. If not, great! That’s less of an investment we smart owners will have to make.
All too often on draft day we find ourselves settling for a certain player at a certain position rather than walk away with someone we covet. In auctions, sometimes the bidding just doesn’t go the way you expect and you have to bow out rather than overspend and in snake drafts, a run can come too early and before you know it, the top guys on your depth chart have been taken off the board. When that happens, some people tend to overreact and just grab a guy to fill the spot before they find themselves scraping the bottom of the barrel. It’s a panic move. Unfortunately though, that usually leads to grabbing a guy too early at the expense of a better overall player or overspending on someone who should have gone for a cheaper price. And in almost every case, the player is flawed and you end up having to convince yourself that you still made the right move.
As we saw through last week’s series of articles, there’s been quite a lot of talk about the Fan/RotoGraphs Dynasty Mock Draft. Yes, there seemed to be a bit of confusion — two people thought it was a regular keeper draft rather than a dynasty one — but lost in the mundane and repetitive critique of that aspect was the true meaning of a mock draft. Its is a test. It is a guideline. It is a tool. You use a mock draft to gauge where particular players are going; where certain positions come off the board in a run. It certainly isn’t the gospel, but while the calendar hasn’t even flipped to January and offseason player movement has far from ceased, it’s definitely a useful piece of information from which to get started. That being said, we’re going to wrap up its coverage with a listing of the catchers that went, where they came off the board, and a few notes along the way.
While there seems to be a bit of a lull on fantasy relevant player movement right now — Eno jumped on the Twins/Willingham potential deal and sorry, but .180-hitting Kelly Shoppach to the BoSox is barely relevant in my eyes — we can continue to focus on the mock drafts that we’ve all been covering lately. As I was going over the catcher ADP, one of the more noticeable oversights found in the FanGraphs dynasty league mock draft was Royals catcher Salvador Perez. Granted, it was just a 12-team, one catcher league, but with so many youngsters going so early, it’s hard to imagine that out of 27 rounds and 324 players selected, there was no love for the Royals 21-year old backstop.
Tracking average draft position (ADP) can be an incredibly useful tool in preparing for your upcoming fantasy drafts. It’s most helpful in standard snake-style drafts as you’re able to see, on average, where a particular player is taken; whether you can wait a few rounds to grab him or if you have to act quicker than you thought to pick him up. Obviously it’s less helpful if you’re in an auction, but it does help you see which players are, for the most part, off people’s radars and can be stolen late in your auction for a cheaper price tag.
If you’re one of those people who has a hard time justifying the use of a high draft choice on a catcher and you like to bargain shop, then perhaps San Diego Padres backstop Nick Hundley is a name you should consider this season. He’s not one to top many lists right now and between the mediocre stat lines and the power-suppressing ballpark he calls home, the 28 year old backstop has become much more of an afterthought in fantasy drafts. However, if you take a closer look into his numbers and the circumstances surrounding his career, there is definite reason to believe that there is growth potential on the horizon which could result in him being a possible breakout sleeper candidate in 2012.
By now you’ve already heard the news that the Rockies traded Chris Iannetta and his over-inflated OBP to the “can we please have Mike Napoli back, our catchers stink” Angels while signing Reds free agent Ramon Hernandez as a replacement and mentor for prospect Wilin Rosario. If not, then wake up and check out articles here from Erik Hahmann, Jack Moore and Chris Cwik, all of whom have chimed in on the move. But while all that is certainly big news, my fantasy radar keeps me in Cincinnati. With the departure of Hernandez, the Reds will have a new catching tandem to watch and, more than likely, bigger possibilities on the horizon.