An interesting question came through the interwebbings in general and the rotographs mailbag in particular:

Normally, it is the other owners who panic and drop someone good but struggling, and I pick them up. But Gordon Beckham hasn’t done much of anything so far this season. There has been no stretch to give me hope. I am buoyed by the fact that he has 9 walks in recent games, but the 8 K’s that go along with it is still on the high side, and in any case, walks don’t count in my league and he isn’t hitting for much of anything.

Mike Aviles, Ian Desmond, Alberto Callaspo, and Starlin Castro are all available on my waiver wire. I already have Ben Zobrist and Elvis Andrus filling MI positions plus Pablo Sandoval manning 3B, so I’m covered while Beckham struggles. I need HR and RBI and thus why I hold onto Beckham so far. What do you recommend?

-M

This is a unique situation. While M is “set” at middle infield, Zobrist and Sandoval are struggling and holding on to Beckham means those players have to start through the struggles. If M wants to keep on chugging, he’d be best served by picking up one of the hotter middle infielders on the wire – most likely one of the Royals. But even if this is the move, who is the dropper? He’d want to drop the guy with the least upside, in order to keep upside on the bench. And since Panda and Andrus are virtually dripping with upside, we turn to Zobrist and Beckham as the most likely droppers. Let’s compare them to Aviles and Callaspo to get an idea of where to go. (For those touting Castro, I’ll say that the .111 minor league ISO removes him from home run consideration despite the hot streak so far.)

Let’s begin by using the ZiPs RoS projections as an eyeball test:

Zobrist .263/.356/.431 with 11 HR, 11 SB
Beckham .257/.330/.422 with 14 HR, 8 SB

Aviles .284/.313/.412 with 6 HR, 4 SB
Callaspo .293/.347/.427 with 7 HR, 2 SB

The eyeball test says he’s got the players with the most upside on his team right now. Though the batting averages of the guys on the wire are useful, M owns Fat Ichiro and would seemingly not need batting average as much as the counting stats. In fact, that may end the discussion right there… if not for the interim problem of being stuck with two struggling middle infielders, and the question of Beckham.

We’ve talked about how few statistics are significant in such a small sample size, but it’s the swing rates that stabilize the quickest. Well, Beckham is reaching slightly more (28.9% this year, 24.8% last year), but he’s swinging about the same overall (46.0% this year, 46.9% last year) and making similar contact (79.7% this year, 80.1% last year). The reaching is a little worrisome, but Beckham has always been a reasonably disciplined hitter with average walk rates (7.3% in the minors, 11.6% in college), and the difference is not so great that it suggests that Beckham is broken.

Instead, let’s point to two numbers that stabilize the slowest that suggest that Beckham will be okay. He owns a .241 BABIP (.279 career) and a .061 ISO (.160 career), and both of those numbers take more than 400+ plate appearances to become significant.

In this last bit of analysis lies the last wrinkle: Beckham has just barely passed the career threshold to make his ISO significant. In other words, he’s just now accrued enough plate appearances that his .160 career ISO predicts his future ISO at a 70% level. He did have a .197 ISO in the minor leagues, but he wouldn’t be the first player to experience a power dip upon entering the bigs. Since his speed is suspect (60% success rate career), if his power takes a dive, he’s obviously the dropper on this team. So M, if you are feeling antsy and want some batting average in the short term, it all depends on how strong your stomach is. But you’ve got all the upside on your team currently, and that’s usually the best way to go.

I’ll do one shallow league guy just because he’s heating up and I’ve seen him on some wires, but then it’s back to the deep leagues of course. This triptych of ineptitude may leave you with a bad taste in your mouth, but there’s utility here despite their warts.

Nate McLouth | OF | Braves (50% owned)
It’s a mixed bag with McLouth, who was already behind the eight ball in leagues that count batting average. Since swing rates stabilize first, we’ll take a look there – and find the numbers going in different directions. Overall, he’s swinging a lot less this year (34.7%) than in his career overall (40.1%), but it’s hard to say that’s a negative right off the bat. Swinging less could, for example, lead to more selectivity and more walks. Accordingly, McLouth is reaching less (20.4%) than he has in his career (21.2%), and walking at a career high rate (14.3%). And that’s good. What’s bad is that his contact rate is down (81.3% this year, 85.4% career). In any case, more contextual clues lead to some hope. A week ago, McLouth had been dropped to 8th in the order and wasn’t playing against lefties. Though 478 at-bats against lefties is hardly an opus, his .702 OPS against lefties is close to a disasterpiece. Count it as hope that McLouth has been moved back to leadoff against righties, and you’ll get yourself a lifetime .818 OPS hitter against that hand. As long as you have daily lineups, and can wait for righties, he’s a good pickup.

Delmon Young | OF | Twins (15% owned)
Yes, I know. Hold your nose. Young is not the dynamic star that was once prognosticated for him. He’s very flawed. He doesn’t have much power. But this isn’t to say that he hasn’t improved. In fact, his swing profile includes some improvement in virtually every category. For such a wild swinger, swinging less has to be a positive – and Young is swinging less (54.7% this year, 61.2% career). He’s reaching at a career-low rate (36.8%), and this improvement is particularly informative because it’s part of a trend. He’s improved his reach rate in every season in the bigs. The best news is that his contact rate is up big (79.9% this year, 75.3% career) at the same time. He still swings at bad pitches too often, and his power is just barely above average, but there’s a good chance that he retains the gains he’s made in the early going. Though it’s not yet significant, it’s nice to note that he’s sporting a career high in flyball rate right now, and a .290/20/10 season is not out of reach. The hardest part will be following the lineups to make sure he’s playing.

Steve Pearce | 1B | Pittsburgh (0% owned)
Is another major league team about to give up on Jeff Clement? When is a good time to cut your losses and give up on a player? Did the Pirates already give up on Pearce before Clement? These are all good questions that won’t be answered here. Instead, we’ll just report that Pearce was recalled today and is on the major league roster. Though he’s shown a platoon split in the major leagues (.920 OPS versus lefties, .607 vs righties), those have come in a mere 378 plate appearances total. The same split is not as pronounced in the minors (.929 vs lefties, .871 vs righties) and virtually disappeared in his hot 2010 start (.353/.456/.612 overall). Maybe he’ll get some starts at first base against lefties, or maybe he’ll steal some time from the scuffling Lastings Milledge. It’s worth stowing a guy with a .889 career minor league OPS in about 2000 at-bats, especially when he’s just turned 27 and has a fire under his behind.

Ownership rates courtesy Yahoo Fantasy Sports.

Brad Bergesen’s player profile here at FanGraphs has been playing mind games with me for a few days. Simply put, it’s tough to get a good handle on what to expect from this guy. I really do enjoy writing with conviction and drawing strong conclusions based on the data that is available here and at many other great baseball sites online. I believe in what I write and for many reasons.

But Bergesen is different. Rather than picking a side and determining if he can be successful or unsuccessful because of reasons X, Y, and Z there are good reasons on both sides of the ledger when it comes to Brad Bergesen. The former fourth round pick is coming off of a nice rookie year where he posted a 3.43 ERA in 19 starts before succumbing to a leg injury after taking a line drive off his shin on July 30. His peripherals tell another story…he had a 4.10 FIP and 4.42 xFIP.

xFIP is likely selling him short because his home run rate is being normalized. I personally don’t think that’s fair because Bergesen’s a sinker ball pitcher and has always prevented the long ball at each level of professional baseball save for a 17 inning High-A stint in 2008.

Bergesen is not a strikeout pitcher by any means but his minor league numbers may suggest that we could see a small uptick in strikeouts next season from his meager 4.74 strikeout rate. He’s always had plus-control and showed that skill last year in the big leagues. And then there’s his impressive 50% ground ball rate in 2009 which agrees with his minor league rates. Steady defenders Cesar Izturis, Brian Roberts, and Adam Jones up the middle of the diamond figure to assist Bergesen and his ground ball tendencies. His BABIP and left-on-base rates also check out quite normally.

There’s reason to believe that Bergesen could be a serviceable contributor towards the back end of your fantasy team’s rotation due to his plus-control, sinking fastball, home run suppression, and strong defense surrounding him. He has the makings to become a better version of beltway foe and Washington National, John Lannan. That’s all the good stuff.

When we shift to the other side of the ledger we see Bergesen’s very low and alarming strikeout rate in the big leagues accompanied with his fringey fastball velocity. And one has to wonder whether he can maintain a home run rate around 0.80. Even if that rate creeps up closer to the league average of 1.05 his numbers are going to suffer (as xFIP shows).

His plate discipline stats here show that he wasn’t fooling many major league hitters last year. Batters made contact with his pitches at a very above-average clip last season.

It’s going to be awfully interesting to see what Bergesen does this season and pitching in the AL East against superior opponents will not make his job any easier. As I’ve combed through above…he has his own set of pros and cons. After recovering from the freak leg injury he suffered a strange and funny injury over the winter but looks to be on schedule and should be a part of the Orioles rotation come opening day.

Perhaps we’ll be able to say a lot more about Bergesen next winter if he completes his first full season in the majors this year. This could all have boiled down to simply needing more data but for fantasy purposes we should be focusing most on what he can bring to the table this season. If Bergesen takes a few chinks in the armor this season (HR/9 or worse batted ball stats) then he will likely become a negligible pitcher in fantasy baseball.

But if he maintains a similar profile to last year then he’s certainly a serviceable pitcher (and much more valuable in real-life) at the back of your rotation and even more valuable in deeper leagues. I think the ball could fall on either side and it’ll be interesting to check back on The Bergesen Case next year. Nonetheless Bergesen is quite a fascinating pitcher and he’s likely to be found loitering on the waiver wire.

By the time a top prospect graces a major league field, avid fans can recite just about any detail regarding that player. Height, weight, round drafted (or country signed from), minor league stats, scouting reports, what he likes to eat for lunch..you name it, and it’s known.

With fantasy players going to CIA-like lengths to get the scoop, looking to identify The Next Big Thing before anyone else, expectations for those prospects soar. Sometimes, those players scuffle at first, get hurt or don’t get an opportunity to play every day. They fade from a person’s consciousness, as attention is turned to the next crop of “can’t miss” youngsters.

Today, I’d like to turn your attention back toward some names that everyone swooned over a few years back, but have yet to reach their potential for one reason or another. Here’s the Fallen Prospect Lineup, with CHONE projections for the 2010 season included.

Catcher

J.R. Towles, Astros

CHONE: .252/.332/.409, .326 wOBA

Towles’ minor league track record suggests that he could be better than the average backstop with the bat, but a string of injuries, an ugly line in a small amount of big league playing time (largely the product of a .218 BABIP) and the presence of 2008 first-rounder Jason Castro have torpedoed his status within the organization. It’s difficult to find a guy capable of league-average offense at catcher, so the 26 year-old shouldn’t be written off just yet.

First Base

Jeff Clement, Pirates

CHONE:.264/.342/.460, .350 wOBA

Formerly a catcher, Clement was viewed as a franchise-type player when the Mariners selected him with the third pick in the 2005 draft. However, knee injuries and spotty receiving skills caused him to fall down the defensive spectrum. Now that he’s apparently through strapping on shin guards, Clement will need to slug his way to a big league career at first base. He’s a career .279/.368/.492 hitter in 1,500+ plate appearances at the Triple-A level. Clement, 26, figures to get his first crack at an everyday job if Pittsburgh feels comfortable with Garrett Jones in right field.

Second Base

Sean Rodriguez, Rays

CHONE: .241/.327/.447, .338 wOBA

Snagged from the Angels in last year’s Scott Kazmir deal, Rodriguez has beat the bejesus out of the baseball in Triple-A (.298/.396/.620 line in 750 PA), though Salt Lake City (the Halos’ highest minor league affiliate) is a cozy place for a batter to take his cuts. The 25 year-old doesn’t have a clear path to everyday playing time, but he has experience at second base, shortstop, third base and in the outfield. With Tampa, Rodriguez will perhaps fill in at the keystone when Ben Zobrist plays the outfield, while catching an occasional start at other positions when a regular needs a breather.

Shortstop

Ronny Cedeno, Pirates

CHONE: .257/.303/.389, .304 wOBA

Slim pickings here. That CHONE projection would actually constitute a great leap forward for the former Cub and Mariner, who has a career .272 wOBA in the majors. Cedeno just plain hasn’t been able to handle big league fastballs to this point: per 100 pitches, he has been two runs below average when a pitcher reaches back and fires. He has hacked first and asked questions later, too, chasing 35.5 percent of pitches thrown outside of the strike zone (25% MLB average). Cedeno, 27, will “battle” Bobby Crosby in spring training for a starting spot.

Last we heard, both Ronny and Bobby are trying to board Oceanic Flight 815, hoping to crash on the “The Island” back in 2004. I’m not sure that even Jacob or The Man in Black could help these two, though.

Third Base

Alex Gordon, Royals

CHONE: .267/.353/.435, .350 wOBA

The fervor surrounding Gordon never reached Wieters-esque levels, but the Golden Spikes Award Winner and Nebraska star was supposed to mash from the moment the K.C. home crowd gave him a standing ovation in 2007. Gordon’s ’09 campaign was marred by a hip injury, but it’s important to keep in mind that a “disappointing” major league performance to this point has resulted in a 98 wRC+ (two percent below the MLB average).

The 26 year-old lefty batter must show improvement versus breaking stuff, particularly of the southpaw variety, but CHONE projects an offensive showing that’s 14 percent better than the big league average next season (114 wRC+).

Outfield

Wladimir Balentien, Reds

CHONE: .265/.342/.487, .358 wOBA

Traded from the Mariners to the Reds last year, Balentien is a hulking righty hitter who has impaled pitchers at Triple-A (.283/.359/.534 in 819 PA) and flailed in the majors (.221/.281/.374 in 559 PA, with a 72 wRC+). He hasn’t exactly crushed fastballs. But against curves and sliders, Wlad has looked like a beer league softball player who hit the kegs a little overzealously in the early innings. His contact rate to this point is a Custian 69.8 percent (80-81% MLB average).

Still, Balentien is a 25 year-old with a good record in the high minors. He’ll fight for playing time in left field with a laundry list of others, including Chris Dickerson, Jonny Gomes, and possibly Chris Heisey.

Delmon Young, Twins

CHONE: .305/.339/.454, .346 wOBA

Remember “Delmon Young, the next Albert Belle“? The first overall pick in the 2003 draft earned the adoration of prospect mavens by throttling pitchers at minor league levels where he was several years younger than the competition. Sure, his strike zone was expansive, but it was easy to dream of a day when he’d be an all-around force at the plate.

Now 24, Young enters the 2010 season with a career 95 wRC+ in the majors. The problems: a tendency to swing at anything from North Dakota to Wisconsin (career 40.4 Outside-Swing% and a four percent walk rate) and roll over the ball (50 percent groundball rate). It also doesn’t help that he has played DH-worthy defense (career -18.9 UZR/150 in LF). He’s not doomed yet, but there’s a good chance that he’s the next Jose Guillen instead of the next Belle

Lastings Milledge, Pirates

CHONE: .284/.345/.423, .338 wOBA

Once a premium center field prospect with the Mets, Milledge is now a left fielder on his third organization. His career wRC+ is just 93, as he has often strayed from the zone (31.6 Outside-Swing%) and rarely popped the ball over the fence or into the gaps (.132 ISO). The soon-to-be 25 year-old doesn’t project as a standout defender, so he’ll need to up the offensive ante in Pittsburgh. Jose Tabata and Gorkys Hernandez both have ETAs of late 2010 or early 2011.

Yesterday, we took a look at the starting pitchers with the biggest difference between their ERAs and their Expected Fielding Independent ERAs, attempting to find which hurlers performed above or below their peripheral stats in 2009.

Today, let’s turn out attention to the hitters. I compiled a list of the batters (minimum 350 plate appearances) with the biggest gap between their batting average on balls in play (BABIP) and their expected batting average on balls in play (xBABIP).

What’s xBABIP? Last winter, Chris Dutton and Peter Bendix sought to find which variables were most strongly correlated with a batter’s BABIP. Using data from the 2002-2008 seasons, Dutton and Bendix found that a hitter’s eye (BB/K ratio), line drive percentage, speed score and pitches per plate appearance had a positive relationship with BABIP (the better a batter rated in those areas, the higher his BABIP). Pitches per extra-base hit, fly ball/ground ball rate, spray (distribution of hits to the entire field) and contact rate had a negative relationship with BABIP. From this research, they created a model for predicting a batter’s BABIP.

Prior to Dutton and Bendix’s work, a lot of people used to calculate a hitter’s expected batting average on balls in play by taking line drive rate and adding .120. It made some sense: line drives have the highest batting average of any batted ball type by far, falling for a hit well over 70 percent of the time.

However, line drive rates don’t show a high correlation from year to year. That makes the “LD% plus .120” method unreliable. Dutton and Bendix’s model showed a 59 percent correlation between actual and expected BABIP. The LD +.120 method showed just an 18 percent correlation.

Some of the numbers used in Dutton and Bendix’s study are not readily available. However, Derek Carty of The Hardball Times and Slash12 of Beyond the Box Score have both come up with expected batting average on balls in play calculators based on the new findings.

For the purposes of this article, I used Slash12’s calculator. It uses the following variables:
– Line Drive Percentage (LD%)
– Ground Ball Percentage (GB%)
– Fly Ball Percentage (FB%)
– Infield/Fly Ball Percentage (IFFB%)
– Home Run/Fly Ball Percentage (HR/FB%)
– Infield Hit Percentage (IFH%)

While not identical to the variables used by Dutton and Bendix, these batted ball numbers do a good job of taking into account the aspects that lead to a higher or lower BABIP.

First, a disclaimer. Like the ERA-xFIP charts from yesterday, these lists of “lucky” and “unlucky” hitters are based on just one year of data. To get a better feel for how a hitter will perform in the future, it’s vital to take a good hard look at multiple seasons worth of performance. This is just a quick-and-dirty exercise.

To provide a little more context, I also included each batter’s actual BABIP since 2007, when possible. The three-year averages help us get a better picture of each hitter, and help us figure out which batters might be “tricking” the xBABIP calculator based on one year of abberrant batted ball numbers.

Take Jason Kendall, for instance. Kendall had a 12 percent infield hit rate in 2009, compared to a 7.6% career average. The calculator doesn’t know that Kendall’s ankle exploded like a cheap Acme bomb a decade ago, and that he’s a 35 year-old catcher who has a BABIP under .270 since 2007. It thinks he has speed due to the infield hit rate. That’s why you need to look at multi-year numbers.

Here are the hitters with actual batting average on balls in play figures exceeding the expected batting average on balls in play numbers. These are the guys who might see their batting averages fall in 2010:

Higher BABIP than xBABIP

And here are the batters with actual BABIPs falling well short of the XBABIP totals. These hitters could experience a bounce-back in 2010:

Lower BABIP than xBABIP

As keeper league decisions loom, many fantasy managers are looking at certain struggling young stars and wondering where all the buzz went. No young star has had a more tortured young history then B.J. Upton (né Melvin Emanuel Bossman Junior Upton). What can we expect from a young man that has shown flashes of great potential and long stretches of mediocrity? Does he, in the Ron Shandler vein, “own” the power and the speed because he’s shown both in the past? Or will he be more one-dimensional as his career evens out?

His power has oscillated incredibly. Here are his full year slugging percentages, starting with his first year in the minor leagues: .431 (’03 minors), .505 (’04 minors), .490 (’05 minors), .394 (06 minors), .291 (’06 majors), .508 (’07 majors), .401 (’08 majors), .364 (’09 majors). Quite the dilemma. It’s tempting to call 2007 his fluke year, but then there’s the question of the 2008 playoffs, and his 2004-2005 run in the minor leagues. He has shown good power multiple times in the past.

Examining 2007 further, we find that he had a HR/FB number that year (19.8%) that was way out of line with his career percentage (10.4%). This year, despite a career high in fly ball percentage (41.4%, well above his 34.7% career percentage), he’s sporting his second-lowest slugging percentage and has only muscled nine balls out of the yard despite being healthy for a good part of the year.

An obvious flaw in the older Upton’s game is his ability to hit line drives. His career line drive percentage is poor (17.5%), and this year’s number is third-worst among qualifiers this year. In 2007, he owned a career-high in that category (19.8%), and looking over his minor league career, we can see that the low line-drive rate is a definite part of his game.

What we are left with is a player that has some exciting tools (speed, and the ability to get on base (11.6% walk rate career)) and some real flaws (low line drive rate, high strikeout rate (28.2% career)). This gives us a player that despite a good BABIP (.348 career, most probably built on his speed) has a poor batting average (.266 career).

Looking for a comparable player is not easy, but one name comes to mind. Hunter Pence is a year older, and his power has not varied as greatly as Upton’s. Pence does also package a low line drive percentage (15.8% career) with good speed (5.2 speed score, .325 BABIP) and some power. On the other hand, his HR/FB stayed steady throughout his short career at a higher level than Upton’s has. What we can learn from Pence, possibly, is that Upton’s ceiling may not be defined by his best year. 2007 was a great year for both players, and both players will probably never again show the pristine batting averages they sported that year.

As for the Bossman’s power, we are left guessing. It’s never a good sign when a player has such extreme power spikes. Consider that he had more home runs in 2007 (24) than he’s had in the other 1,548 non-2007 plate appearances (23). Power is his shakiest tool, and depending on it returning in the future is not recommended.

When the Athletics signed Orlando Cabrera to a one-year, $4-million-dollar deal late in the offseason, Dave Cameron was not alone in lauding Billy Beane for another veteran steal.

The logic seemed unassailable. Cabrera has been a real plus on defense over the course of his career. Last year he even put up an impressive 14 runs over the average shortstop, but his glove has also averaged 7 runs over average at a premium position for three years.

Of course, his offense has been a drag on his value. Over his valuable last three years, he’s given up almost 4 runs a year with his bat. Even so, most teams would agree with his $26 million dollar value over the last three years, especially if that player came with a $4 million dollar price tag.

Then came this year. The player himself said it best to the San Francisco Chronicle: “I suck. I don’t even know how to describe it. … I suck. For real.” So what’s going on with this year’s disasterpiece? Perhaps we can use his offensive numbers to figure out what he’s lost on defense.

There are a couple issues with his plate discipline. While his walk rate and strikeout rate are right in line with his career numbers, his reach rate is up a little (27.2% over 24.1% career). With a 93.6% zone contact rate, he could stand to take advantage of that strength by reaching less often. This is nitpicking, however.

His batted ball rates are actually all perfectly in line with his career averages. It is eerie actually how Cabrera’s line drive, ground ball and fly ball rates are right in line with what he’s always done. In April, he hit 62 balls without getting a single one over 100 mph, but without historical data, it’s hard to say much about those numbers. He was never much of a slugger anyway.

No, he was more of a speedster. Since 2001, he’s averaged 21 stolen bases and a 5.3 four-component speed score. This year, he’s down to two stolen bases (against four caught-stealings) and a speed score half his average (2.5). His BABIP, a number that is tied to speed, is in a three-year decline. That’s more than a step slow, that seems like a leg or foot injury… or a quick decline.

Consider that his speed score, which was never elite in the first place, is actually in a four-year decline. His stolen-base success rate in 2008 was his lowest since 2001. It certainly looks like Orlando Cabrera has lost a step – or even more than a step. Since speed is a big part of both his offensive and defensive game, it follows that his value has quickly entered a decline phase.

Maybe this isn’t so surprising for a 34-year-old middle infielder. What is surprising is that, by using his speed score and offensive numbers, we can possibly spot a loss of speed that isn’t evident in his defensive component numbers. If he has slowed, you wouldn’t have seen it in his Range Factor, Range Runs Above Average, or Ultimate Zone Ratings over the past three years. His defensive numbers just fell off a cliff this year, with little warning. It seems that defensive statistics could use some more refining.

Either that, or Cabrera is just having an unlucky start (.250 BABIP) and a little trouble getting his motor going.

One of the hardest things to figure out in baseball is if a declining older player has anything left. Fantasy managers are left wondering what the doctors are saying, if there are physical or mental ailments to blame, or if the player is just done. Two aging DHs are currently facing their own struggles, and though ZiPS is pessimistic about both, their cases are not the same.

David Ortiz – Much has been written about Big Papi, and R.J. Anderson did a great writeup just a couple weeks ago. Let this be an update, as Ortiz has been the subject of much publicized conjecture in just the last week. Brian Costello wondered aloud, in the New York Post, if Ortiz was really 33 as his birth certificate said. A scout cited that he was David Arias when he was drafted, and that therefore the chances of his birth certificate being accurate were “zero.” The same scout said that we are seeing a 40-year-old man flailing away when we watch Ortiz. Hyperbole aside, there’s no way Ortiz is falsifying his age more than a year or two in the wrong direction. He’s not going to halve his OPS in one year, even if he’s really 35 instead of 33. And yes, even if he is a big man.

Anderson did wonder if something was physically wrong with Ortiz, and that is always the main concern with aging sluggers. So the Red Sox doctors recently did a full checkup and famously gave Ortiz some eye drops and he responded that his dry eyes were not keeping him from performing at his peak. Some bat speed issues might be at play in his reduced contact rate in the zone – just look at how many fastballs pitchers are choosing to send his way. He’s seeing 4% more fastballs, which seems to suggest that pitchers think he’s not getting around.

But June has been kind to Ortiz, and his .300/.333/.500 slash line is reason for some optimism. Maybe the mental and psychological barriers were the barriers that held the most weight, and a rebound is in order. Since Anderson checked in with Ortiz, he’s swung at fewer pitches outside the zone, and his O-Swing % is regressing to the mean. Perhaps his other numbers will also begin regressing to the mean.

Travis Hafner – The ‘other’ big struggling DH was brought up in the comments under Anderson’s take on Ortiz, and for good reason. His sore shoulder had him currently on the DL and his manager wasn’t sure when he’d be back in town. Despite his good start to the season (.268/.358/.563 has to be counted as good in the face of his .628 OPS showing last year), ZiPS is pessimistic about his slugging and has him down for .264/.379/.491 and 11 home runs over the rest of the year.

Can we be more optimistic? I think so. First, the bad signs are not so bad. Hafner is reaching right now, and his 25.3% O-Swing% is a career high. Why is this not so worrisome? Even when Pronk was struggling last year, he only swung at 18.1% of pitches outside the zone. Where Ortiz’s reaching was getting worse, Pronk is only now, suddenly reaching. Also, he’s making contact on his reaches – his O-Contact% and Z-Contact% are at career highs as well.

He’s seeing the ball well, it seems. His BABIP is actually low (.298 this year, .320 career), and he’s putting the ball in play. He’s hitting a career high in fly balls (48%), and his HR/FB rate is back up to his pre-2008 levels (20%). His line drive percentage is a little low (17.3%), but his career rate is not great (19.9%), so this doesn’t seem incredibly out of line.

Sometimes we over-rate what we hear about a player’s physical problems, which might be the case for both of these big DHs. Yeah, they may not play every day, and yes they may be in decline. But in Pronk’s case, since he’s come back off the DL, he’s put up a double and a home run in eight at-bats in consecutive days. That’s what Hafner is anyway, and in a league of any depth beyond mixed leagues with short benches, owners should be happy with him this year. It’s not like he cost much.

An already-thin position took a hit this week with Aramis Ramirez hitting the DL with a separated shoulder. With the prognosis leaving him out for at least a month, owners are hitting the waiver wire in search of some short-term Maalox.

Let’s take a look at some of the possible short-term patches. Not all of them will soothe equally.

Adrian Beltre – Don’t think that Beltre is done just because it seems like he’s been around forever. You may be surprised to learn that he is only 30 years old. Possibly because of an oscillating line drive percentage (19% career, 15% currently), Beltre doesn’t own a great career BABIP (.291). That said, he’s current .260 number is unsustainable, and even if he ‘only’ pushes that number up to last year’s .279 level, the average will climb shortly. Perhaps it would help him center the ball if he quit swinging at more than 40% of balls outside the strike zone. Get that back to regular 30% levels and the line drive rate, BABIP, and average should all follow.

Mike Fontenot – How about A-Ram’s real-life replacement? Newly-acquired Ryan Freel and Fontenot will split up the at-bats at the hot corner for the Cubs, and both are decent players. While Freel is more of a speedy player, Fontenot actually has some nice pop. He’s hitting over 40% fly balls, and his double-digit HR/FB percentage (15.6%) looks sustainable when seen against last year’s totals. There are some black marks against the diminutive (5’ 8”, 170 lbs) infielder, however. His 10% line drive rate means that his .250 BABIP won’t necessarily move on it’s own accord. Since most of his contact, walk and strikeout percentages have been steady, it’s just a difficulty making solid contact that’s keeping Fontenot from being the best fantasy and real-life replacement.

Casey Blake – While Beltre is younger than most may think, Blake is older than most would guess. At 35 years old, his bat may also be slowing down. His contact rates are down across the board, and his current line drive rate (16%) is the worst of his career. He’s never had great batting averages, and calling the cavernous Dodger Stadium home (.857 park factor for home runs in 2008) doesn’t make him any more attractive.

Chase Headley – There’s some news in Padre-land, and it’s important to their third-base situation. Huge first-base prospect Kyle Blanks (6’ 6”, 270 lbs) is taking fly balls in left field, meaning that the team is at least considering pushing Headley back to third, and Kevin Kouzmanoff to a reserve role. The good news about Headley is that he’s cut down his strikeouts and is swinging less at balls outside the zone. There’s no number that leaps out and says that he’s been unlucky, but if he continues his natural progression and walks more like he did in the minors, he still has major upside.

Scott Rolen – Rolen may actually be the best short-term replacement for Aramis Ramirez. His BABIP is a tick high (.326) and his fly ball percentage a tick low (38.5%), but the best news is that he feels healthy and his lineup is providing him many ducks on the pond. The biggest worry, his 32% line drive rate, can’t be seen as too much of a negative. Sure, it’s a little high, but at least he’s seeing the ball well. As the line drive rate comes down, perhaps the fly ball rate will increase. Either way, he’s a solid run-producer that should put up the best batting average of the possible replacements.

The earlier a fantasy owner can pull off a good trade the better, as the longer he will have the undervalued players on his roster. It is not uncommon for leagues to have owners with itchy trigger fingers, so it is never too soon to examine players to acquire or deal. While some owners are more likely to hold on to underperforming veterans, there are just as many who are looking to acquire the next big rookie. So here are five guys to pick up and five players to move.

Acquire

Jimmy Rollins – A notoriously streaky hitter, Rollins is hitting just .121 with no HR and no SB in seven games. He does not have to be 2007 MVP good to justify giving up something worthwhile to acquire him when his value may be down.

Chris Davis – Everyone’s favorite sleeper during mock draft season, Davis has a .154 average with one HR. He has hit in every stop along the way to the majors and is still the same guy who hit .285 in Texas last year. Davis will not have a 42 percent K rate all year.

Dustin Pedroia – He has just a .179 average thanks to a .160 BABIP. Three of his five hits have gone for extra bases and he has three walks compared to two strikeouts.

Gil Meche – An undervalued pitcher to begin with, Meche is winless in his first two starts. But 12 strikeouts in 14 IP with a 6:1 SO/BB ratio is indicative of how well he has pitched. And Meche’s two starts were in Chicago and versus the Yankees, so a 3.12 ERA is very good.

Dan Haren – After a 16-win season in 2008, Haren opened 2009 with an 0-2 mark. All of his other numbers are good so owners will likely be hesitant to give him up, but it may be possible to find someone who drafted him high based on other’s assessments of him who may be having doubts.

Dump

Emilio Bonifacio – Yeah, it is fun having him on your team only to say his name but his value will never be higher. And despite his current .714 SLG he is not going to hit for power and he will have to hit better than the .268 that his top pre-season projection had him going for to be a worthwhile fantasy player.

Kyle Lohse – A perfect 2-0 record with a 0.56 WHIP has been posted versus Houston and Pittsburgh, contenders for worst teams in baseball. Also, both of these games came at home, where Lohse was 8-2 with an ERA over a full run lower than it was on the road in 2008.

Adam Lind – The main problem with Lind is that he has no plate discipline. And even in this great hot streak to start the season, he has six strikeouts and one walk in 35 at-bats. Trade him while those 12 RBIs are among the league leaders.

Nyjer Morgan – No one doubts the SB potential but at the same time, no one doubts the complete lack of power, either. Morgan needs to get on base more and he still shows no propensity to take a walk. While he’s likely to post a high BABIP it simply will not be of the .444 variety where it currently stands.

Joe Saunders – Last year Saunders surprised everyone by posting 17 wins. But he had a FIP nearly a full run higher than his ERA, the fourth-worst mark in the majors. So far he has a win and a 2.63 ERA in two starts, but his FIP is more than two runs higher and his strikeout and walk numbers are still nothing to write home about.