Only a few games into the season and the relief pitcher body count has already started to mount. No, none of your fantasy arms died tonight but injuries to some top rated arms seems almost unavoidable in today’s game. Earlier today the Phillies placed Pat Neshek on the 10-Day disabled list with what the Phillies are calling “Right Shoulder Strain”. This only a day after Philadelphia placed late inning reviver Tommy Hunter on the 10-Day DL as well. Neither of those two were lined directly up for save opportunities but it leaves Hector Neris on a closer island all by himself with a somewhat secure ninth inning role, even after his implosion just a night ago.

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The first day of the 2018 season did not lack for closer drama, and the bumpy ride for some fantasy owners began even before the first pitch. After weeks of speculation over how Cardinals manager Mike Matheny would split up save chances among Dominic Leone, Tyler Lyons and Luke Gregerson (hamstring), once he returns from the 10-day disabled list, Greg Holland stepped into the picture and shredded all of those narratives. The Cardinals signed Holland to a one-year, $14 million deal, and he instantly became the uncontested closer in St. Louis.

A cursory glance at Holland’s 2017 stat line with Colorado — particularly his 3.61 ERA — might give the impression that he had a, you know, rocky first season back from Tommy John surgery, but bulk of his difficulties came during a three-week period in August. During that slump, Holland coughed up 14 runs in 6.1 innings. He had a sub-2.00 ERA prior to that stretch, and went back to a sub-2.00 ERA for the period following the downturn. Even Holland’s 29.8 percent strikeout rate from last season, which was well below his marks from his peak years of 2013 and 2014, could have been an illusion. His 15.2 percent swinging strike rate and 44.3 percent swing rate look right in place with his rates from his best seasons.
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A Trip through the Relief Pitcher Rankings

No matter where one stands in regards to tiers, it helps streamline cumulative rankings in an effort to streamline assessment of a position. When trying to predict closers, well, do not. There’s going to be volatility, pitchers will get hurt or lose the role due to performance which proliferates the need for this column to run daily each week of the 26-week marathon of the fantasy baseball season.

Trying to make sense of Paul Sporer, Jeff Zimmerman, Al Melchior, Ben Pasinkoff, Keith Farnworth and my ranks seems surreal. But with the last few days of drafts looming, it’s time to figure out who to target in spite of several teams yet to announce their closer. Yes, looking at you Arizona, Texas, St. Louis, Baltimore and the Angels, with the mercurial Mike Scioscia. Agree or disagree, if one feels strongly, go with your gut. Our rankings posted yesterday and can be found here. With deference to the rankings, the tiers formed from the adjusted average to sort out the arms.

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Cody Allen is winding up his season in a bit of a funk. He did not manage to blow the Indians’ 4-0 lead against the Twins on Wednesday night, but he did allow the visitors to cut the lead in half on a Jorge Polanco two-run homer. Allen has now allowed a home run in three of his last four games, and over the three innings he pitched in those outings, he was credited with five earned runs.

Sam Dyson appeared to be cruising towards a successful finish to a bumpy 2017 season, but on Wednesday, he gave his fantasy owners reasons to have the jitters. Entering the bottom of the ninth with a 3-1 lead against the Diamondbacks, he coughed up a leadoff home run to J.D. Martinez, and in successive at-bats, allowed singles to Jake Lamb and A.J. Pollock. Three batters later, Dyson blew the save when Pollock scored on a John Ryan Murphy grounder, and then the Diamondbacks walked off on a David Peralta walk.
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Here’s everything you need to know about an unusually quiet weekend of bullpen activity around the major leagues:

Jeurys Familia has been moved back to the closer position on the grid for the Mets. A.J. Ramos has struggled as of late, and it was always assumed that Familia would at some point find his way back to the ninth inning for New York. Familia picked up his first save since May 5 on Friday (pitching 1/3 of an inning), then the following day he pitched a scoreless ninth in a tie game at home, as closers often do. Familia’s track record and projections indicate that he should have no problem being a very good closer again. He induces a ton of ground balls and limits the home run ball very well. Meanwhile, Ramos’s days as a must-own fantasy asset may be over if Familia has indeed regained the role of closer. Ramos could still have some value in holds leagues, but there are better options out there. Read the rest of this entry »

If there was any uncertainty around Brad Brach taking over the closer duties for the Orioles while Zach Britton is out due to a PRP injection, we didn’t have to live with that uncertainty for very long. Brach’s first save chance in his third iteration as the Orioles’ primary closer came on Thursday night against the Rays. It had some drama, as he issued a two-out walk to Steven Souza Jr., which was followed by a J.J. Hardy error that put runners on the corners with a 3-1 lead. Brach worked out of the jam by getting Kevin Kiermaier to fly out, collecting his 18th save of the season and his first save since Aug. 27.

Mike Minor needed only six pitches to close out a 1-0 win over the Blue Jays on Thursday night, earning his second save in a week. The Royals’ closer situation is still ambiguous, though. The Kansas City Star reported that Scott Alexander has been dealing with fatigue, and may not be available for Friday’s series opener at the White Sox. Even if Minor were to get another save on Friday, that would not necessarily mean he has the closer’s job all to himself.
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Even with less than two weeks left in the season, it’s not too late for some closer turnover. Zach Britton is scheduled to get a stem cell injection in his left knee Thursday, and that will likely shelve him for the rest of the season. That probably means that Brad Brach will once again take over as the Orioles’ closer for the final nine games. The earned run that Brach allowed against the Red Sox on Tuesday was the first he had yielded in September, so he has rebounded from a difficult August. His control has been inconsistent, and that has contributed to a total of five walks in 10.1 innings this month (two of which came on Tuesday). A 64.3 percent ground ball rate has helped Brach to minimize the damage.

If you are thinking of adding a closer (or replacing Britton) for the home stretch, Brach should be sufficiently reliable. Then again, if you are in a 12-team mixed league, he is not necessarily the best option. Hector Neris, who converted his 17th straight save on Wednesday against the Dodgers, has not only been steady, but is a better option for strikeouts. As Ben Kaspick mentioned in the previous installment of the Bullpen Report, Alex Claudio was passed over for a save opportunity on Sunday, but he was back in his customary role on Tuesday, Claudio set the Mariners down in order, notching his ninth save of the season, and then he came back for a scoreless two-inning save on Wednesday.
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On Friday, with the Royals leading by one over the Indians, Ryan Buchter pitched a scoreless sixth (with one strikeout), Trevor Cahill pitched a scoreless seventh and eighth (walking three), and it was Mike Minor who pitched a scoreless ninth with three strikeouts to earn his first save of the season.

The first two batters due up in the ninth for the Indians were right handed, and the next two were switch hitters, so the lefty Minor’s appearance in the ninth didn’t appear to be a matchup-based save opportunity. With Kelvin Herrera‘s struggles and Brandon Maurer’s difficulties with runners on base, there’s opportunity for fresh blood in the ninth, and it could very well be Minor who gets the most save chances down the stretch. He’s probably worth an add for those desperate for last-minute relief help. Read the rest of this entry »

All that stood between the Indians and the major league record for consecutive wins with no ties was Kelvin Herrera. On a different night, it could have been Scott Alexander who was charged with protecting a streak-ending 2-1 lead for the Royals. However, the lefty had pitched on each of the two previous days, tossing a total of 37 pitches, and on five of the previous seven days. So on Thursday night, Ned Yost chose Herrera to pitch the bottom of the ninth.

It was Herrera’s first save opportunity in a week and his third appearance since being removed from the closer’s role last Friday. He was close to preventing the Indians from making history, as he worked a 1-2 count on Francisco Lindor with two outs and a runner on first. Herrera’s fourth pitch was high, and Lindor smashed his fifth pitch off the left-field wall for a game-tying double. While Herrera blew the save, he did not take the loss, as he retired Austin Jackson for the third out.
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On Wednesday, for the first time since Aug. 12, Scott Alexander gave up a run. In fact, he coughed up two of them in the ninth inning against the White Sox, taking the loss for the Royals. While Alexander’s ERA grew from 2.00 to 2.26 as a result, there is a possible silver lining in that Ned Yost entrusted him to preserve a tie in the top of the ninth. Yost also gave Alexander the ball for Tuesday’s save opportunity against the White Sox, so there is at least the appearance of him being at the head of the Royals’ closer committee.

Alexander has certainly done everything possible to earn that distinction. While going a month and 15 innings without yielding a run, Brandon Maurer has posted a 7.71 ERA over that same period. Mike Minor has been more reliable over the last 30 days, though he has been less effective at getting batters to chase pitches out of the zone (29.1 percent O-Swing rate, as compared to a 35.8 percent season-to-date mark).
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