Catcher Rankings Debate: Who’s Number One?
Beginning next week, and continuing the first Monday each month, we’ll be doing a fully updated version of the 2011 Catcher Rankings. We’ll go over the risers and the fallers and talk about who could be climbing up the rankings on a more permanent basis and who’s washing out. But while we’re heading into the first set of updates, we have a pretty big debate on our hands. Who’s the number one catcher out there? Does Joe Mauer’s slow start/DL stint/illness knock him out of the top spot? Has Brian McCann’s consistency helped move him up? Has Buster Posey proven himself enough to be the top fantasy backstop? And where does Victor Martinez fit in with all of this? These were the four names in the top tier. These were the four names, in order, from the top tier back before the season started. Now the question is whether or not that order has changed.
I suppose, if you’re a Mauer fan, then you’re probably dismissing the slow start. You’re citing an un-Maueresque .276 BABIP and a viral infection that is sapping his strength and abilities. You believe he will rebound from all of this and maintain his status as the premier backstop. Obviously, I do not believe so. If I did, then this article wouldn’t exist. I think we’re done with Mauer as the top dog, to be honest. Not that he’s done or that he still won’t be one of the top options out there, but he’s no longer the top option out there. I think it’s time for a change.
For me, to be the top option, you need to be the total package. The fact that Mauer peaked in 2009 and had a poor follow-up in 2010 is a big deal to me. Sure, he should always hit for a high average, but with the current illness and the usual back issues that have lead us to a gradual reduction in plate appearances and the lack of punch to be found in the middle of the Twins lineup these days, it’s hard to see the runs scored or the RBI being maintained at a high level. Again, I know it’s early, but for Mauer to really regain his status, we not only need to see him improve his own game, but we also need major improvements around him in Justin Morneau and even Delmon Young. Counting on one guy stepping up his game is one thing, but needing three makes it vastly more difficult.
So if it’s power I’m looking for, then is V-Mart my choice? 20 or more HR in 5 of his last 6 seasons with 3 100+ RBI years mixed in there as well? Not too shabby looking on the resume, but between the current and more frequent stops on the DL, I’m just not so sure. How about McCann with his steady 20+ HR power, solid run production and decent, albeit inconsistent, batting average? He makes a great choice, but I just don’t see him maintaining a .382 BABIP the rest of the way. The reduced walk rate and increased strikeout rate aren’t helping me either.
And that leaves us with Posey, my personal choice for number one catcher out there. If we’re talking keeper leagues, then it’s a complete no-brainer to me. He’s got 20+ HR power and bats cleanup in the Giants lineup. He’ll have ample RBI opportunities and with a resurgent Pablo Sandoval and a potentially dangerous Pat Burrell hitting behind him, the runs scored should be plenty. Couple that with youth and (knock wood) durability seemingly on his side, and what more could you ask for? I’d keep him over any of the other three right now and moving forward as he will likely be a fixture in the middle of the Giants lineup for years to come.
For re-draft leagues, my opinion really doesn’t change. He’s already been performing at a high level to follow up his NL Rookie of the Year campaign, he’s doing it all with a fairly normal .321 BABIP so it’s not like he’s just getting lucky out there, and based on his ZiPS for the rest of the season, he will potentially outperform the other three. If that’s the case, then how can you argue against him being the number one stud out there?
I’m actually really curious to hear what the FanGraphs readers have to say on the matter. I’d be hard-pressed to have my mind changed, but would love to hear some of you try. I’ll keep a very open mind and see if someone can toss me a more compelling argument, not so much against Posey, but in favor one of the other candidates. If not, then we’ll all look forward to seeing the 24 year old FSU product sitting atop the rankings in just his second season.
Howard Bender has been covering fantasy sports for over 10 years on a variety of websites. In addition to his work here, you can also find him at his site, RotobuzzGuy.com, Fantasy Alarm, RotoWire and Mock Draft Central. Follow him on Twitter at @rotobuzzguy or for more direct questions or comments, email him at rotobuzzguy@gmail.com
I personally would probably go with the reliability of McCann, but all 4 I feel are very very close. I can understand the Posey pick, but I would rather not risk a sophemore slump (despite no signs of one thus far). Also, in 2009 Mauer started the season on the DL and after returning in May he exploded for one of the greatest months any catcher has ever had. It probably won’t happen again, but he’s still the best option if he is healthy.
I know he’s off to a lousy start, but I think Santana belongs in the conversation, especially for keeper leagues.
Santana is absolutely my #1 choice in keeper leagues.
I am concerned about Santana’s knee holding up. If it does, yes, he is absolutely up there, especially in OBP leagues (which are the only real leagues, IMO). I just have a hard time seeing him hold up for more than a few years due to that reconstructed knee.
what, no Wieters?
McCann for sure. Posey doesn’t even have a full season at the big league level yet. McCann has been doing it for years, he bats cleanup in a better lineup (especially now that Heyward is rightfully batting 2nd) and he has a better hitter behind him in Uggla. More potential in pretty much every category (except maybe homers but even then it’s close) and unmatched consistency.
Really? I think Posey is a virtual lock to have a better BA than McCann. I like Buster overall myself, though I agree a case could be made for McCann.
McCann has a career average of .290, Posey is at .295 currently but I would anticipate some regression. I would bet on McCann having a higher BA this season and certainly wouldn’t call it a lock for Posey.
I dunno, I just think McCann has more HR potential (better ISO), more RBI chances thanks to Heyward/Chipper, and more run scoring chances since Uggla is a lock to hit at least 30 HR. Plus he’s done it before and he’s fixed his vision problems.
Regression to what, exactly? Posey hit .305 last season, and he has always had a high average in the minors. Posey is at least as good, if not better, than McCann as far as BA is concerned.
And again, where are you getting your “better ISO” from? McCann has a career avg of .196 ISO. Posey had a .200 ISO last year, which is just about what he averaged in the minors. As far as RBI chances… If you are counting on the Braves being a better hitting club than what they’ve shown so far, perhaps, but at this point, maybe we should all rethink just exactly how good Atlanta’s offense is. And while Uggla is still on pace to hit 30 HRs, if continues to hit .178 all season (I know, not going to happen), he’s not going to help McCann any in the run department.
#1 Buster Posey
#2 Brian McCann
#3 Victor Martinez
#4 Joe Mauer
lol
lolol
lololol
This seems about right if we’re talking the rest of 2011. V-Mart and Mauer are providing no value for the next couple of weeks at least.
This is how I would re-draft today as well. McCann and Posey are a tough call; however if Posey keeps trying to steal bags and swipes 10 – 12 that would put him over the top.
Russell Martin anyone? Currently leading all catchers in AVG, SLG, OBP (& OPS), HR, R & RBI. Add a low K-rate within the most potent lineup in baseball and you have a top tier catcher.
But better than any of the top four, over the duration of the season? Naw.
Generally when someone leads in OBP and SLG, they also lead in OPS. 🙂
Martin’s doing very well, but I don’t think anyone believes he keeps it up all season.
There is very little reason to think Martin will stop hitting.
descender, do you mean there’s very little reason to think Martin will stop hitting the way he’s hit the last three weeks, or the way he’s hit the last three years?
in my view, there’s reason to think he’ll be somewhere in between, but probably closer to the last three years than the last three weeks.
I just feel like there is this looming expectation that he is going to hit the AS break and completely fall apart. The mystique of his “injury history” that doesn’t actually exist (one injury that leads to another inujry is not a history).
My money is on martin being a top5 catcher this season without breaking a sweat… with the potential (flashed recently) for a lot of LD home runs to LF in yankee stadium.
AS break? LOL we’re in April. We’re not even out of the realm of the possibility that Martin will stop hitting BEFORE the AS break.
Phillie – That is a nice fiction but there is absolutely nothing to back up your statement.
I don’t know of Martin is #1, but he’s certainly looking like a top catcher again. It was only a few years ago that he was in the running for the best fantasy catcher in the game after all, and he appears to be playing at that level again. I’m not sure it’s fair to completely write him off as just a hot start.
He’s probably not better than any of these guys, but with a 300 BABIP, he doesn’t seem like a fluke. He won’t keep up the outrageous power, but a return to 2007 isn’t totally out of the question.
Top tier catcher…if he stays healthy/keeps his stamina high. I know he’s stated that he gets tired in the 2nd half of the season his career month by month stats seem to back it up.
Personally I’d hold onto him until around the all star break and then try to trade him.
Russell tended to wear down as the year went on. That was attributed to his overuse and so Torre stepped in and attempted to Torrematize him, extolling the virtures of days off and another position. Did not seem to help. The thanks he got was a modest contract offer from LA, for all that he did.
He has anti-Torre/prove the Dodgers wrong juice in him, for now. If used wisely, it probably lasts the whole year, IF Russell remains healthy and takes a game off every now and then. GRrrrreaaaaat NYY pick-up, obviously… plus he has something to do with Burnett’s resurgence, I would imagine.
If the ranking is for the rest of the season starting today, I think Mauer and V-Mart have to be knocked down considerably because of injuries. Mauer in particular, because of the uncertain quality of the injuries and his inconsistent value in the 5X5 format, I would be very reluctant to take in a redraft. I’d certainly take Carlos Santana before him as well Posey and McCann, and V-Mart. I’d be just as happy with Montero, Napoli, Soto, Martin, or Weiters for that matter, though if Mauer actually fell as far as one of those guys I guess I’d have to take him instead.
In general, these in-season rankings suffer from a definition problem. If it’s the rest of the season, then you have to take injuries into full account. If you want to ignore injuries, then you’re talking about long-term performance, and then you have to take into account age. The rankings so far seem to be in this weird in-between zone.
So to put my money where my mouth is:
Non-keeper:
Tier One
1. Posey
2. McCann
Tier Two
3. V-Mart
4. Santana
5. Mauer
6. Napoli
Keeper
Tier One
1. Posey
2. Mauer
3. Santana
4. McCann
Tier Two
5. V-Mart
6. Weiters
7. Napoli
So in a non keeper league you take Santana over Mauer but in a keeper league you take Mauer over Santana. I’m confused.
A non-keeper league for me means the rest of this year. Mauer is on the DL with this mysterious injury. So at least some of his “true” value for this year is out the window and maybe a good chunk. I assume he’ll recover in the long run, so it’s less of a concern for a keeper league.
Santana has huge upside, but only played well for a couple of months last year before going down with an injury and is struggling this year. Even in a keeper league, you have to discount a prospect’s projected value until he proves he can make it happen in the majors. Otherwise you’d have been stuck paying way too much for someone like Weiters.
Also, I’m limiting this to people with starting jobs. Otherwise Jesus Montero would be in the mix.
I like this list a lot. But I still don’t see Mauer getting knocked off the #1 keeper spot. Going into next year as of right now, assuming he’s healthy, he’s still the clear #1. We haven’t seen enough of Posey yet. By the end of the year you may be able to make the claim for Posey #1, but I can’t quite go all in yet. Mauer has proved himself to be a generational talent – Posey hasn’t quite proved he’s at that level yet (if for the simple fact that he’s too young).
Steve: You’re definitely right about Mauer if we’re talking about actual value. But in a 5X5 format, Mauer has had only one truly great season. In his other seasons he’s been valuable, sometimes even the most valuable catcher, but he isn’t as outstanding in fantasy as in real life.
Even so, I think you’re right that he’s above Posey in a keeper draft at the end of the day.
Also, I think Napoli has to come off the keeper list, because he’s likely to lose catcher eligibility after this year. V-Mart still catches occasionally so I think he’ll keep his eligibility. Here’s my revised keeper list:
Keeper
Tier One
1. Mauer
2. Posey
3. Santana
4. McCann
Tier Two
5. V-Mart
6. Wieters
Tier Three
7. Miguel Montero
8. Russell Martin
9. JP Arrenciba
10. Geovany Soto
Re: Napoli & position eligibility: he has started 5 games at C thus far; seems very possible that he gets 25-30 starts and retains C eligibility for next year.
It depends on how you look at the best catcher. Posey will probably have the best overall numbers, but he’s also much more difficult to be had via trade than someone like McCann. I know the point was not to find out which catcher has the best value, because McCann probably isn’t that person either. But of the top four catchers, McCann is probably the easiest to trade for — when healthy — while putting up numbers that are still in competition for top overall catcher.
So if I had to target one specific top flight catcher, it would probably be McCann. It depends on the league though, and how valuable the owner feels McCann is. To me, he is generally — at least a bit — underrated by the average baseball fan.
“The fact that Mauer peaked in 2009 and had a poor follow-up in 2010 is a big deal to me. ”
You call a .373 wOBA from a catcher poor? Get real. Maybe you didn’t realize how insane his 2009 was. His 2010 season was basically a mirror of his 2008 all of the rate stats are the same. Mauer’s 2010 was a great season people just lost all perspective once he had the second best season a catcher has ever had.
The eyes gloss over with power, people can’t deal with the fact that he won’t hit 20HR’s again.
Posey’s surrounding cast are pretty bad. Last year was a very flukey one for most Giants hitters.
“He makes a great choice, but I just don’t see him maintaining a .382 BABIP the rest of the way.” I also don’t see McCann only having a .079 ISO for the duration of the season. So far his LD% is up 7% from his norm, while his FB% is down by about that much. If his LD% stays the same maybe his BABIP doesn’t drop as much as expected. If his LD% does drop to his norm, that probably means he’s lofting a few more which may help the ISO jump.
Just a theory… and not a statement of McCann being #1.
Posey vs. McCann
Currently 63% prefer McCann.
http://www.tradebashers.com/mlb/users/whofox/trades/buster-posey-sf-versus-brian-mccann-atl
I know he’s not making a case for himself right now, but I still think in my gut that Santana is going to end the season as the #1. Especially with the injuries to the other 2 AL catchers and especially in leagues that count obp/ops/walks etc.. Santana’s the safest bet to get the most ABs of all catchers in fantasy this year IMO.
Soto looks like a nice buy-low right now, if your trotting scrubs out there.
You know how to make the conversation between Mauer and Posey moot? Have both of them on your team, like me 🙂 Yes, I got Posey in the 5th round (12-team mixed league, no less), really don’t know how that happened. I even picked up Huntley off waivers with Mauer on the DL. I don’t know what to do with my catchers once Mauer comes off DL…
the fact that Nick Hundley isn’t mentioned, not only in the post, but in the comment as well, is an embarrassment to fantasy baseball. anyone who would rather have Napoli, Soto or Arencidia over him is a fool..
by the way, I saw him coming a mile away. all he needed was the ABs. guy reminds me of a young righthand-only batting Posada..
Miguel Montero anyone?
Number 1?
Uh… nope.