Catcher BABIP: The Sneaky Way to Trade

Negotiating trades in fantasy baseball can always be tough in competitive leagues.  Everyone is trying to gain the upper hand and each time you ask for that better starting pitcher or that more powerful outfielder, you end up taking some kind of grief for over-valuing your own players.  So why not try and get that extra boost in numbers from a low-profile spot like behind the plate?  Negotiate a deal and then try to throw in your over-performing catcher for their under-performing one who you think has the potential to improve.  You just might be able to squeeze some more out from their end.  Looking at early season BABIP and xBABIP, here’s a look at some “throw-ins” you just might want to try out…

First off, let’s take a look at some current BABIP numbers, both low and high and see who the potentially lucky and currently unlucky backstops are…

	BABIP			BABIP
Matt Treanor	.136		Wilson Ramos	.632
Matt Wieters	.200		Miguel Montero	.469
Carlos Santana	.211		Nick Hundley	.400
Rod Barajas	.214		Brian McCann	.389
Yorvit Torrealba	.216		Humberto Quintero	.385
A.J. Pierzynski	.222		Buster Posey	.361
Miguel Olivo	.240		Carlos Ruiz	.353
Victor Martinez	.245		Josh Thole	.344
Geovany Soto	.250		Ryan Doumit	.333
Jarrod Saltalamacchia	.250		J.P. Arencibia	.320

These are the top 10 on each side of the coin using a minimum of 30 plate appearances as the cut-off.  They’re all getting enough playing time to matter in most leagues.  Obviously, the trick is to sell high on those with an abnormally high BABIP and buy low on those who are sitting well below the usual .300 average.  But let’s face facts…no matter how dumb people can be, you’re not buying either Carlos Santana or Victor Martinez for cheap, nor are you  going to use Buster Posey or Brian McCann as throw-ins to try and gain a little more in a deal.  So let’s just forget about them for the sake of this article/trade theory.

However, there are definitely some names on the high BABIP side that you can offer up that just might get a little extra out of your trade partner.  Wilson Ramos is pushing out Pudge in Washington, Carlos Ruiz gets attention playing in Philly, Nick Hundley is off to an outstanding start and J.P. Arencibia is one of the bigger names out there for young, power hitting catchers.

On the low side for the under-performers, Geovany Soto stands out as a catcher with 20+ HR potential, Matt Wieters‘ owners are probably pulling their hair out and growing impatient, Jarrod Saltalamacchia has potential, and you just might be able to do better with a solid veteran like Miguel Olivo.

So that’s where the xBABIP comes into play.  There’s always an expectation of a regression to the means, no matter which side of the coin you’re on, so let’s look at some current numbers to see who really might be a good buy low or sell high candidate…

Buy Low
	BABIP	xBABIP	x-BABIP
Matt Treanor	.136	.309	0.173
Yorvit Torrealba	.216	.360	0.144
Rod Barajas	.214	.324	0.110
Miguel Olivo	.240	.341	0.101
Matt Wieters	.200	.267	0.067
A.J. Pierzynski	.222	.283	0.061
Jarrod Saltalamacchia	.250	.307	0.057
Geovany Soto	.250	.275	0.025
Sell High
	BABIP	xBABIP	x-BABIP
Wilson Ramos	.632	.396	-0.236
Miguel Montero	.469	.355	-0.114
Nick Hundley	.400	.325	-0.075
J.P. Arencibia	.320	.260	-0.060
Ryan Doumit	.333	.279	-0.054
Humberto Quintero	.385	.346	-0.039
Carlos Ruiz	.353	.319	-0.034
Josh Thole	.344	.337	-0.007

It seems like there are definitely a few names worthy of targeting.  Now I’m not saying to just throw in Miguel Montero and take back Matt Treanor with the belief that A.  Treanor will outperform Montero and B.  your trading partner will up the ante significantly enough in another area to counter the difference, but I definitely think you can do that with Hundley and Rod Barajas right now.  Maybe Ruiz and Olivo?  Personally, if I could find an owner frustrated enough with Soto, I’d be more than happy to try out this strategy with most of the names on the list of high-performance backstops.  I think he’ll improve that much as the season progresses, and you never know how high another owner will be willing to go unless you try.