Can Kearns Provide Value?

When the Washington Nationals went on an outfield shopping spree this past offseason, the competition for playing time figured to be fierce. Adding Josh Willingham via trade and Adam Dunn via free agency to a group of fly-catchers already including Elijah Dukes, Lastings Milledge, Austin Kearns, Willie Harris and Wily Mo Pena (you know you’ve gone too far when you have an excess Wily), one or two players figures to get the boot or at least be tethered to the bench.

Out of that group, the former Cincinnati Reds prospects figured to lose out. Former GM Jim Bowden acquired his previous Cincy outfielders like they were Pokemon cards (gotta have ’em all!), but Pena was coming off of a putrid season (.228 wOBA in 2008), and Kearns struggled with injuries while failing to produce much at the plate either (.287 wOBA).

While Pena has since been dismissed, Kearns (owed about $8 million for the year) stuck around. And he’s done more than just keep best buddy Dunn company in the clubhouse: manager Manny Acta has started Kearns in right field in Washington’s first two ballgames.

Setting aside the insanity of benching Dukes (quite possibly the Nationals’ all-around best position player), let’s take a look at Austin’s profile to see if he’s worth taking a flyer on.

A 6-3, 220 pound outfielder with power and swiftness afield, Kearns was taken with the 7th overall pick out of Lexington, Kentucky in the 1998 amateur draft. He reached the majors at age 22, looking well worth the investment: Kearns batted .315/.407/.500 with a .394 wOBA during his rookie season in 2002. He pulled a hamstring toward the end of the campaign (an unfortunate bit of foreshadowing), but Austin looked poised to anchor the Reds’ lineup

While that prodigious debut portended to great accomplishments, Kearns lost a big chunk of the ’03 season to rotator cuff inflammation, batting .264/.364/.455. And so began the pattern: somewhat disappointing production, coupled with a copious amount of injuries:

2004
Apr 28, 2004: Fractured left forearm, 15-day DL (retroactive to April 25th).
Jun 8, 2004: Thumb injury, 15-day DL (retroactive to June 2th).
Aug 24, 2004: Missed 71 games (thumb injury).
Jul 11, 2004: Transferred from the 15-day DL to the 60-day DL (thumb injury).

.324 wOBA, .230/.321/.419 in 246 PA

2005
Jul 20, 2005: Recalled from Louisville (AAA).
Jun 12, 2005: Optioned to Louisville (AAA).

.339 wOBA, .240/.333/.452 in 448 PA

By this point, Kearns was no longer the golden boy of the Cincinnati organization. Exasperated by his inability to stay on the field, the Reds shipped Kearns to the Nats along with Felipe Lopez and Ryan Wagner in exchange for Bill Bray, Royce Clayton, Brendan Harris, Gary Majewski and Daryl Thompson in July of 2006. In good health for once, Kearns would actually turn in a superb all-around season in ’06, accumulating 4.1 Value Wins by playing a slick outfield and posting a .358 wOBA (.264/.363/.467 in 629 PA).

In 2007, Kearns set a career-high in plate appearances, coming to the dish 674 times. His results in the power department were underwhelming: after posting ISO’s in excess of .200 in ’05 and ’06, Kearns slipped to .145. Overall, he posted a near league-average wOBA of .337, batting .266/.355/.411. That, combined with continued flashes of leather, helped Kearns post 3.6 Value Wins.

Then came 2008. Like so many other pieces of the Nats’ offensive “attack”, Kearns’ bat flat lined on his way to a grisly .217/.311/.316 line, with a .099 ISO (it’s like he and Willie Harris switched bodies, or something). Kearns was felled by right elbow and foot injuries, sapping him of any kind of sock.

Small sample size-itis seemingly infected Washington’s front office this spring, however. While would-be stud Dukes batted .212 in a small clump of generally meaningless games played in front of elderly Floridians, Kearns slugged .581. Apparently, that was enough to re-distribute playing time in right field (sigh).

When healthy (a condition anything but assured), Kearns is by no means a bad player. In fact, with his range and solid on-base skills, he could be a nice complementary piece on a team with playoff aspirations. However, as a Nat, he’s blocking one of the organization’s offensive pillars, and his extra-base thump has waned in recent years. Most of the projection systems have Kearns pegged for a modest season with the bat:

CHONE: .252/.350/.413
Oliver: .258/.347/.427
ZiPS: .252/.351/.400

This is one of those situations where “real” and fantasy baseball might diverge: Kearns’ defensive capabilities help push him into the realm of acceptable starter. However, that matters little in most every fantasy league, as Kearns’ lumber projects to produce dime-a-dozen numbers. The 28 year-old is worth a look in deeper leagues, but that guy who looked like an offensive force back in 2002 likely won’t be reappearing.