Bullpen Report: Sunday, May 24, 2015
In one of the few save opportunities that we saw on Sunday, Jason Grilli struck out three Brewers and earned his thirteenth save of the year. I don’t think anyone has any illusions about the where the Braves will be at the trade deadline, so Grilli likely won’t be saving games in Atlanta in August and September. The difference between fantasy owners of Jason Grilli and the Atlanta Braves, is that his trade value could be very different depending on where and if he gets moved. If he’s traded to a team that is going to use him in the eighth, then you’re going to be missing out on saves. Maybe now is the time to look at moving him if you have him, while you know that he’ll be saving games for a few more months at least, and the prospect of his saves drying up is still well off in the distance.
In Arizona, Addison Reed pitched the eighth and picked up his second hold. He struck out one and didn’t allow a single Cub to reach base. His velocity was up a tick. He induced a popup and a fly out with the slider, and he struck out Dexter Fowler. Brad Ziegler came in and picked up the save. He’s got a .192 BABIP, which is unusually low for someone with a GB% of 67.3%. He’s closing for now, but I wouldn’t sleep on Addison Reed. It would probably be terribly uncomfortable.
Shawn Tolleson struck out the side for the save over the Yankees on Sunday night, upping his K%-BB% to a stellar 27.9%. He got up to 95.9 mph and generated whiffs with both of the sliders that he threw. The rest of the Rangers bullpen is still a work in progress. Keone Kela was tabbed with the seventh inning duties, and Ross Ohlendorf came on to start the eighth. He gave up a single and a walk and Sam Freeman was called on to retire Brian McCann. I’m not slotting Ohlendorf ahead of either Kela or Neftali Feliz for saves. Joe Girardi had an interesting deployment of his bullpen arms tonight. With Justin Wilson unable to retire anyone in the seventh inning, Dellin Betances was brought in to face Adrian Beltre, Mitch Moreland and Elvis Andrus, and he set them down in order. David Carpenter got the bottom of the lineup in the eighth, and Andrew Miller struck out two in a perfect ninth.
Of note: Luke Gregerson saved his twelfth of the year, striking out two Tigers and giving up a solo home run to Miguel Cabrera. A.J. Ramos earned his second save on Sunday, with a perfect ninth. Aroldis Chapman pitched the eighth inning against the Indians to get in some work. He walked two, gave up two hits and didn’t strike out anyone. Cody Allen gave up a run after he came in with a four-run lead. Koji Uehara struck out two as the Red Sox called on him with a five-run lead. Casey Janssen pitched for the second day in a row and earned a hold. Drew Storen followed him and struck out two more batters, earning his fourteenth save.
Notes from Saturday: The Mets sent Bobby Parnell on a rehab assignment to Binghamton. Fernando Rodney saved his twelfth of the year, striking out two in a perfect ninth inning. Luke Gregerson did the exact same thing, except it was his eleventh save and against the Tigers instead of the Blue Jays. Cody Allen saved his ninth, striking out one in a perfect inning. Kind of see a pattern emerging with the Saturday notes. Glen Perkins saved his sixteenth game. But he wasn’t perfect. One hit and a walk along with a pair of strikeouts. Santiago Casilla had to come in and clean up another mess, but he gave up two hits and retired only one of the three batters he faced, but that’s all he needed to do for his twelfth save. In the nightcap, John Axford earned his sixth save. Carter Capps struck out six in three innings of relief, and got the win when the Marlins walked off in the thirteenth. Enrique Burgos came in to a tied game in the ninth and gave up three runs to the Cubs. He did strike out three. Pedro Strop nailed it down for his first save of the year. Joe Maddon was just giving Rondon a night off. Kenley Jansen struck out one for his third save of the year.
Closer Grid:
[Green light, yellow light, red light: the colors represent the volatility of the bullpen order.]
Darren contributes to RotoGraphs when he isn’t watching the Braves or shoveling snow. Follow him on Twitter @shinesie.
Wouldn’t you say Fields is at least 2nd in line, maybe even 1st? Most talented arm in that pen and talent always comes out ahead.
I think Neshek is locked in as next in line, he has been great this year and last. Fields and Qualls are probably in a battle for the second chair with Fields being more talented, but Qualls having “closing experience” on his side. Which could play a part if anything happens to Gregerson.
Great report, as always! My two-cents worth is that I interpret ‘red’ as meaning one or two bad outings and the closer changes, and yellow means maybe 3-5 more bad outings (esp. In high leverage situation) and the closer will lose his job. I think Oakland should be yellow now that Doolittle is almost back, and the Ax-man in Colorado is probably no worse then yellow now, since he seems to be effective pitching in the high mountain air.
Shane Tolleson is looking pretty safe these days, too. He’s pitching even better now he’s closing, while the other guys are all pretty scary. I think he should be yellow, at least if there’s one more save.
Mind you, the colour may indicate they haven’t paid their closer dues to Fangraphs. I believe the colour scheme needs a more quantitative legend, indicating either how much rope we guess he has left in BSs or how much he owes in dues.
Doolittles lack of velocity in his rehab is scary. I could see Clippard hanging onto that job since Sean Doolittle throwing in the low 90s probably won’t end well.
Doolittle will be fine. He’s only pitched a few minor league innings, so 90 is fine and to be expected. Even after a full spring training, he’s only about at 92 the past few seasons.
Doolittle relies on amazing command and deception, not velocity. See http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/how-sean-doolittle-makes-one-pitch-work-for-him/
Grilli probably deserves to be green at this point. His back issue seems to have gone away and I don’t see Johnson taking that job away from him unless an injury takes place. Likewise Tolleson and Axford are probably safely yellow now. I don’t see Tolleson relinquishing that role in Texas. Axford still scares me, but he’s been good enough to have earned some rope in Colorado.
In Seattle, Carson Smith is clearly second-in-line behind Rodney while Farquhar has dropped a slot or two after more poor performances in a year when his velocity has dropped and his k-rate has plummeted. Smith pitched the 8th as a bridge to Rodney on both Friday and Saturday and all 12 of his most recent appearances has been in the eight or later.
Smith is a smart pickup in deeper league owners looking for excellent numbers, high k-rates and a position behind an aging closer who has had some struggles on a team hoping to contend. Like Zack Britton he throws a devastating sinking fastball that generates a lot of whiffs and ground balls and adds a strong second pitch in a slider.
Farquhar was demoted Monday night to the minors, so again, it’s long overdue him from the closer grid and move Carson Smith just behind Rodney.
Good stuff as always. Is Boxberger green in Tampa? Can I somewhat safely drop McGee? Limited bench space and limited moves makes keeping both un-productive.
As you mentioned in article, Capps is back with the Marlins, and not in the minors. I bet Ben puts him as 1st chair.
Right rank ROS (standard 5×5): Ramos, Clippard, Tolleson, Cecil, Ziegler?
Ramos, Tolleson, Cecil, Clippard, Ziegler for me.
Ramos has been dominant this year and with Cishek continuing to be terrible, he is slowly being locked into the Closer’s spot. As long as he can maintain his improved Walk Rate, he should be awesome. Only concern is the Marlins look terrible and that could hurt his Save chances.
Tolleson is quickly locking up that job and I could easily flip him and Ramos. Both have been solid to very good set up men over the past year or two and have now transitioned to Closing.
Cecil is pitching better and while I’m not a crazy big fan of his, I don’t see Toronto making a move for a Closer if they don’t start winning and get back into the East race which means Cecil has a decent shot to hold onto the job the rest of the year.
Clippard has been killed by the fact the A’s are terrible right now and are especially terrible in 1 run games. Maybe there is some concern about Doolittle taking his job, but I have zero faith in Doolittle doing that if his velocity doesnt improve. Hard to trust Sean Doolittle throwing 90 MPH. What holds back Clippard isn’t Doolittle, rather I think it’s the fact he is almost guaranteed to be traded before the deadline. The A’s look like sellers and with Clippard being a pending FA, he is probably gone by July. Evan Scribner is an interesting sleeper for possibly being a second half closer for the A’s.
Ziegler appears to be a stop gap option for Chip Hale. Ziegler probably relinquishes that role back to Reed, Burgos or even Evan Marshall at some point.
yeah, my only concern with Ramos is his team won’t give him many chances. He’s been lights out though, and good order with the closer tiers. I agree fully with your ranking.
Nice analysis Mike. Do you write for Fangraphs?
Not sure I agree with your downgrade of Clippard. According to FG Projected Standings, the A’s are going to win more than the rest of this group. IF he keeps the closer role & the A’s get on a run he could easily be the best of this group. I guess I’d call him the highest ceiling with his floor just above Ziegler. The trading Clippard point is a good one though. Are any of these other RP’s a FA at the end of the year?
With the Rangers having the least number of projected wins ROS I think my new ranking is:
Ramos, Cecil, Clippard, Tolleson, Ziegler.
Just like Cecil out of spring training, Doolittle will be fine. It takes more than 5 IP of minor league rehab to be in mid-season form. Cecil, as you’ll recall, was throwing 87 as the season began, but he’s now in the 90s. Plus, Doolittle thinks he’s on track. See http://m.sfgate.com/athletics/article/Sean-Doolittle-set-to-return-to-Oakland-A-s-6285426.php
Doolittle will get the closer role back in a week or two. Beane didn’t pay him all that cash to set-up. Clippard has shown enough already if the As go into sell mode; in fact, best to get him out before he wrecks the impression he’s a closer.