Bullpen Report: May 3, 2019

The stakes were high for Nicky Delmonico when he came up in the bottom of the ninth with runners on the corners and one out on Thursday night. The Red Sox were clinging to a 4-3 lead, but the normally-reliable Ryan Brasier was on the mound. Delmonico got the better of Brasier, lofting a slider on the outer third of the plate just beyond the outstretched glove of Jackie Bradley Jr. and into the seats.

While Brasier had entered the game against the White Sox having allowed only two runs over 13.2 innings (to go along with six saves), both runs had come on solo homers. Delmonico’s shot left Brasier with his first loss and second blown save, and his profile may suggest that homer-proneness could be a chronic issue. He has a career 36.9 percent ground ball rate, and he also draws a lot of swings in the strike zone with a career 75.2 percent Z-Swing%.

As you can see in the table below, Brasier has been even more extreme in his ground ball and Z-Swing% rates so far this season. His Z-Swing% is the fourth-highest among qualified relievers, but that is not a problem unto itself. The relievers with the two highest rates — Sean Doolittle and Josh Hader — are two of the best relievers in the game. Jake Newberry, who ranks just ahead of Brasier, is not having a bad season himself (3.38 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, one hold).

Two questions should be on the minds of Brasier’s fantasy owners. The first one likely already is: will Alex Cora continue to deploy him more often than Matt Barnes in save situations? On Thursday night, we saw a familiar pattern. Barnes was brought in for the eighth inning to face the toughest part of the opposing lineup. In this particular instance, he dispensed with Tim Anderson, Jose Abreu and James McCann — all via strikeout — and because he did so, Barnes did not have to face Yoan Moncada. So while Brasier has four more saves than Barnes, that ratio could become more even if there are more situations in the future where the heart of the order is coming up in the ninth inning, rather than the eighth.

The second question is whether Brasier’s profile will lead to worse results going forward, and if that could lead him to fewer save opportunities. If Brasier was even better at missing bats, his flyball-proneness wouldn’t likely matter, just as it doesn’t scare us off from Hader (at least not yet). Brasier has more of the Doolittle profile, but the Nationals’ closer has been better at avoiding hard airborne contact and limiting barrels. Whereas we are probably inclined to give Hader a pass for his extreme ground ball and Z-Swing% rates, Brasier is on shakier ground. He had been steady prior to Thursday night, so he is avoiding the “Not Very Stable” tag for now.

Doolittle, for his part, recorded his fourth save of the season in the Nationals’ 2-1 win over the Cardinals. The Nationals’ middle and setup relief corps have been much better in recent days, and the progress of Kyle Barraclough has been especially notable. He recorded his third hold on Thursday night, and over his last three appearances, he has held opponents scoreless over three innings, racking up seven strikeouts with one walk. Over that span, he has thrown sliders at roughly twice the rate he had in his previous appearances (38.3 percent, as opposed to 19.3 percent), and that has helped him to get swinging strikes on 11 of the 60 pitches (18.3 percent) he threw in those games.

Owners in holds leagues should monitor Barraclough to see if this pattern continues, now that pitching coach Derek Lilliquist has been replaced by Paul Menhart on an interim basis.

The Royals’ and Rays’ closer situations continue to be perplexing, and both played a role in Tampa Bay’s 3-1 win on Thursday. Wily Peralta entered the ninth inning, trying to keep the game knotted at 1-1, and he got within one pitch of turning the game back over to the Royals’ offense. However, Brandon Lowe took a two-out, 2-2 pitch out of the park for a two-run, go-ahead homer.

Ian Kennedy has been the superior reliever, but it’s not clear if Ned Yost would have used him in this situation, even if he hadn’t thrown 32 pitches on Wednesday. As a team, the Royals only have five saves so far, and they don’t have the look of a team that will get a lot of save opportunities. At this point, neither Peralta nor Kennedy is worth chasing for saves. On the surface, Kennedy would seem to have appeal for owners looking for strikeout and ratio help, but his 8.6 percent SwStr% suggests otherwise.

The Rays were able to protect the two-run lead in the bottom of the ninth, and it was Diego Castillo who got the call this time. With three righties (Hunter Dozier, Jorge Soler, Kelvin Gutierrez) due up, Jose Alvarado would have been an unlikely candidate for the save chance, especially since he has an 18.8 percent walk rate against right-handed hitters. All three relievers in the Rays’ closer mix — Castillo, Alvarado and Emilio Pagan — have been highly effective, but none look like a strong bet to emerge as a clear primary option over the others.

Quick hits: The Angels did not have a save situation in Thursday night’s game against the Blue Jays, but Hansel Robles pitched a perfect ninth inning in a 6-2 win…Jeremy Jeffress tossed two perfect innings in the Brewers’ 11-6 loss to the Rockies. He has now averaged more than 93 mph in fastball velocity in each of his last two outings.