Bullpen Report: May 3, 2017
In a largely boring night in Closerville, one of the more notable developments occurred in a non-save situation. Twins manager Paul Molitor decided to bring Brandon Kintzler in with a four-run lead in the top of the ninth against the A’s, and the closer got himself into a bases-loaded, no-out situation. Matt Joyce brought in a run with a single, keeping the bases loaded, but Kintzler prevented further damage by getting a force out at home, followed by a double play ball.
It’s not this near-meltdown that is significant, but rather the problems with Kintzler that this outing highlighted. Though he doesn’t profile as a typical closer, Kintzler has had success in the past due to good control and strong ground ball tendencies. He has had neither this season, at least not consistently. Meanwhile, he has allowed oodles of contact, sporting a 5.3 percent swinging strike rate.
It is only a matter of time before Kintzler gets into another jam, and he can’t count on getting out of the next one. Ryan Pressly does not appear to be part of the late-inning mix anymore, and I have moved him out of the grid. Molitor treated this game the same way he did the Twins’ last save situation (on April 30 at the Royals), as he brought Taylor Rogers in the seventh inning and Matt Belisle in the eighth. He also brought Belisle in to start the eighth in the save situation before that, though he yanked him in favor of the lefty Rogers for Alex Gordon with two outs and a runner on second.
This pattern suggests that Belisle is the Twins’ closer-in-waiting to target. He, like Kintzler, has not been getting grounders at his typical rate, but Belisle has been throwing strikes and getting whiffs at a more respectable 10.6 percent rate. In leagues where saves are scarce, Belisle should be a priority target.
The A’s closer situation has been one of the more complicated ones, and with Sean Doolittle going on the 10-day disabled list with a left shoulder strain, it got a little cloudier. Santiago Casilla is still the team’s primary closer, but Doolittle and Ryan Madson each have a save to their names this season. Manager Bob Melvin has favored Ryan Dull in setup situations more than Madson of late, but when Casilla needed a breather, it was Madson who got the save opportunity on April 22 against the Mariners. He would seem to be a better bet than Dull to be next-in-line to Casilla.
Shawn Kelley has not pitched since he threw an inning in a non-save situation April 29 against the Mets, but he did not appear to preserve the Nationals’ 2-1 lead at Arizona. Instead, Jacob Turner finished the game out with four innings of two-hit shutout ball. Dusty Baker told reporters that Kelley had been unavailable for the last two games due to illness. Turner was initially a candidate to start on Saturday at the Phillies, but now it would appear that assignment will go to A.J. Cole. Just maybe, though, Baker has found in Turner his answer to Chris Devenski.
Saves roundup: Craig Kimbrel (10), Cody Allen (7), Wade Davis (7), Aroldis Chapman (6), Mark Melancon (6), Edwin Diaz (5). All of the saves were scoreless one-inning performances, except for Diaz, who pitched an inning, but allowed a solo home run to Kole Calhoun.
Other closer activity: Roberto Osuna, Tony Watson, Raisel Iglesias and Kenley Jansen all pitched a scoreless inning in a non-save situation.
Closer Grid:
[Green light, yellow light, red light: the colors represent the volatility of the bullpen order.]
Al Melchior has been writing about Fantasy baseball and sim games since 2000, and his work has appeared at CBSSports.com, BaseballHQ, Ron Shandler's Baseball Forecaster and FanRagSports. He has also participated in Tout Wars' mixed auction league since 2013. You can follow Al on Twitter @almelchiorbb and find more of his work at almelchior.com.
whats the % chance a carter capps stash earns a save by june 3rd?
He hasn’t pitched for El Paso since Sunday. Hopefully he pitches tonight or tomorrow and gets a call for this weekend. WHO KNOWS??
Pretty low, Maurer has been fantastic and Capps has struggled with control in his AAA rehab. Not really sure why Maurer is still yellow.
thanks for the update/input guys.