Bullpen Report: May 21, 2014
• Well, we didn’t think Matt Lindstrom was going to keep the White Sox closer role for long. Of course, we didn’t expect his reign to end with a torn ankle sheath, either. Lindstrom will undergo surgery on Friday to repair what I can only assume is a “Curt Schilling injury” and will subsequently be sidelined for three months. In other words, he’s not irrelevant for fantasy purposes in 2014.
With Lindstrom’s absense, it appears Robin Ventura will bypass running a committee and turn the keys over to Ronald Belasario. Eno covered the goggled righty in depth the other day, so I’ll just leave the link here. Just know that whoever ends up racking up saves for the White Sox — they aren’t hiding some elite arm in the depths of their pen. Be prepared to sacrifice a bit in whiffs or rates.
• Mark Melancon tossed a perfect ninth, notching save number seven on the season. He’s rebounded nicely after a few iffy outings over the last couple weeks and, although his K% is way down on the season (25% in 2013 to 15% this year), he still owns a respectable 2.93 SIERA. However, the saves gravy train may be coming to an end as Jason Grilli threw in a simulated game on Wednesday. It apparently went well enough that Clint Hurdle thinks the righty could be activated as early as Saturday. He’d almost certainly be thrust back into the closer’s role, moving Melancon back into a setup situation.
While Grilli’s ERA indicators look bad right now (think 4.50+), his swinging strike rate and fastball velocity are right where they were last year, indicating his K% is due to rebound somewhat from his paltry 20% mark. If you could get him on the cheap, he might be a nice trade target. Don’t go cutting Melancon, either; his solid rates should help you even when he’s not closing, and those rates combined with Grilli’s injury history make him a top-5 closer handcuff.
• Man, guys throwing four days in a row haven’t done well lately. Trevor Rosenthal had a mini-meltdown Sunday and Hector Rondon kept Jeff Samardzija off the “win” board by allowing two runs (one earned) in the ninth inning today. After throwing in each of the last three games, the Cubbies went to the well one more time with not-so-nice results. While Rondon definitely earned the blown save, it wasn’t quite as terrible as it could have been, with only one hard-hit ball leaving the infield, and the tying run scoring on a Darwin Barney error. His rates are still good enough that I don’t think this hiccup will sink him, but you have to remember that the Cubs bullpen is not high up on the list of “potential save opportunities.” They’re not quite Astros territory, but they are a less than desirable pen to spend a lot of time fretting over. Either way, Rondon is definitely not going to be available tomorrow. Expect someone like James Russell or Neil Ramirez to get an opportunity should it arise, although it will likely be matchup-based.
• Quick hits: As Ben alluded to last night, it sounds like Bob Melvin is going to lean on Sean Doolittle to be his closer for the time being. He was true to his word tonight and the lefty worked around a one-out single to secure a save for Oakland. Aroldis Chapman bounced back from his first blown save of the season to polish off a victory tonight. Usually he takes a month or two to ramp up to maximum velocity, but he is starting hot this year. Joe Nathan blew a save today and while his 3.87 SIERA leaves a bit to be desired, his fastball velocity has bounced a bit off his early season lows. He has some job security, especially with one of his main setup men giving up a balk-off run in extras. The Dodgers optioned Chris Withrow to Triple-A. He’ll be back, but those if you who were using him in holds leagues should probably make some sort of move.
Closer Grid:
[Green light, yellow light, red light: the colors represent the volatility of the bullpen order.]
There are few things Colin loves more in life than a pitcher with a single-digit BB%. Find him on Twitter @soxczar.
I’m still trying to wrap my head around what Jim Johnson has supposedly brought on himself…
After being pulled from the closer’s job after one week, he had 10 consecutive appearances covering 12 innings, with no earned runs and 3 wins (2 in extra innings), culminating in a 1-2-3 9th inning save in the second game of a DH on Wednesday May 7, just two weeks ago. With no save opportunities for the A’s for 4 days, he got work in and gave up a 9th-inning run with a 9-0 lead on Sunday May 11 (big whoop).
At this point, as far as I can figure, is when he finally lost it all, all 100+ saves the last two years out the window, because the next night, he was the victim of 2 scratch hits and was pulled after 2 batters in that ham-fistedly-managed ninth inning vs CWS. Four days later he pitched a scoreless uneventful mop-up 9th inning in an 11-1 win. Then, last Sunday he was brought in in the 6th inning of a 9-2 game, and (with 2 outs and a guy on 1st of a 9-2 game, mind you) gets squeezed a bunch by the ump and then, suddenly, that’s the end. That’s it. Done. Over. Why did we even consider this guy a closer?
He’s sporting a BABIP of 0.400, has allowed no homers or triples, and 3 doubles (one of which was a single misplayed by Reddick), (and then 4 unearned runs the day before his 1-2-3 save were called earned run 5 days later).
Since April 10, what exactly has this guy done that’s AT ALL different than the previous 2 years? Nothing. He’s getting BABIP’ed to death. Get him a half-way decent left side of the infield and a manager that will let him finish an inning – preferably a clean ninth inning – and he’s fine…
And today Melvin says, “He’s the ‘wild card” — “It might be a couple innings, it might be a couple outs in the sixth, it might be two innings in an extra-inning game.”…Basically in just two weeks and no screw-ups of any substance, this guy is on mop-up detail, behind even Rodriguez….
Could somebody please tell me what I’m missing?
Is JJ on your fantasy team?
AL-Only of course…
The A’s know this shit better than you, right? Have you ever seen Moneyball?
You might be missing the fact that his walk rate is in Carlos Marmol territory.
What has he done that’s different from the past 2 years? How about a KK%-BB% of 3.3%, a SIERA of 4.23, and a LD% of 26.3%. Those are all way worse than usual and he’s paying for it. He’ll probably shape back up over the season, but the margin of error for an MLB closer is razor thin and he’s lost the job.
How can you write an essay like that on a sabrmetrics site and conclude he’s the exact same guy as previous two years when his walk rate is 14.3%. That’s more than double the previous two years. One glance at the profile is all it took.
No you don’t understand he’s just getting squeezed. Umps are stache-racist.
Regarding the Walk Rate: He’s walked 13 guys…6 of those walks came before April 10. After April 10, over the next 14 2/3 innings, he walked TWO guys unintentionally (2 IBBs),and then with 2 out and a guy on first in a 9-2, he walked 3 in a row (big whoop), getting squeezed (yes!) along the way…
You’re really trying to massage the numbers to fit your narrative. That’s not really how this works. He’s been bad. Why would we ignore before April 10? What he’s done since then is still worse than Doolittle’s 1.1% BBs.
It doesn’t matter how hard you squint, Johnson’s WHIP, K rate, BB rate, FIP, xFIP, SIERA, LD%, SwStrk%, F-Strike%, Zone% are all drastically worse than Doolittle’s.
I’m sorry you lost your fantasy team closer. Nothing you have said or Johnson has done this season suggest he shouldn’t have lost his job though.
I like that all the bad things are simply dismissed though. Walked three in a row? Eh, big whoop! They were up by seven! And he was getting squeezed! Lousy umps!