Bullpen Report: May 19, 2017

Another exciting night of bullpen activity with full slate of games on Friday…

• Mariners general manager Jerry Dipoto indicated in an interview on Fantasy Sports Radio that 26-year-old James Pazos could be first in line for save opportunities while Edwin Diaz works through mechanical issues that led to his demotion from the closer’s role earlier this week. Pazos has intriguing numbers across the board in 18.2 innings this year: he boasts a strong 30.9% strikeout rate, a 60.9% ground ball rate, and a tidy 2.41 ERA/2.66 FIP/2.78 xFIP. Diaz was so dominant last season that it remains likely he will eventually harness his mechanics and find his way back into the Seattle bullpen’s most prominent role. He pitched two scoreless innings on Friday, in which he allowed two hits and notched two strikeouts in the eighth and ninth innings of a tie game at home. Despite the scoreless outing, Pazos is worth a speculative add in most formats in case he gets an opportunity to close and runs with it. His numbers seem to indicate that he’s capable of doing so.

• Seung Hwan Oh blew a one-run save opportunity against the Giants on Friday. He allowed two singles and a go-ahead two-run double. Oh is now 10 for 12 in save opportunities, a nice recovery in that department after a very shaky start to the season. However, Oh’s peripherals point to a problem: his 16.3% strikeout rate this year is roughly half of the 32.9% K% he put up last season. He’s also allowed three home runs and nine walks in 21.1 innings. Add it all up, and Oh has an unsightly 4.91 FIP and 5.70 xFIP. Meanwhile, former closer Trevor Rosenthal has been mostly terrific in a set-up role (although he was charged with a blown save in Wednesday’s extra-inning loss to the Red Sox). Rosenthal has a 44.3% strikeout rate in 15.1 innings, and he should represent a threat to the struggling Oh. If Oh can’t turn it around soon, the Cardinals may have to make a move. The situation has been updated to yellow.

• Kelvin Herrera allowed a single and a home run (then another single) as he blew a two-run ninth-inning lead. While he ultimately struck out two in the inning, Herrera now has a 4.50 ERA/5.26 FIP/3.62 xFIP that in no way resembles his sparkling 2.75 ERA/2.47 FIP/2.77 xFIP from last season. The main difference has been strikeouts and home runs. Herrera struck out 30.4% of batters last season, yet he’s striking out just 21.7% of batters this season. Hitters are making contact against Herrera about 7% more often this year than they did last season. Herrera can still be a decent closer with the strikeout rate he has now, but he needs to stop serving up long balls. He’s allowed five home runs in 18 innings this season. Herrera’s job is probably safe for the time being, but it’s worth noting that former closer Joakim Soria has been excellent as the set-up man this year, and his peripherals look strong, so Soria may be worth a speculative add in deeper leagues.

• Addison Reed pitched clean ninth inning in 3-0 game to record his fifth save of the season in six chances. With Jeurys Familia out for perhaps the rest of the season, Reed figures to get an opportunity to be the full-time closer. Reed, a former closer with the White Sox and Diamondbacks, has allowed five home runs in 21.2 innings for the Mets this season, but he boasts a strong 31.7% strikeout rate and still hasn’t walked a batter. He’s a solid bet to remain a steady option as the Mets’ lead man in the ninth.

• It took 33 pitches, but Matt Bush managed to finish off the Tigers despite allowing two singles, a walk, and an earn run. It was his fifth save of the season in six tries and, after notching two more strikeouts tonight, he now has 21 in 16.1 innings, to go along with five walks. Despite the semi-rough outing tonight for Bush, he’s been able to get the job done in the ninth inning for the Rangers, who have now won 10 straight, and he appears locked into the role for the foreseeable future.

• Alex Colome pitched a three up, three down inning to secure his 11th save of the season in 13 chances. He struck out one in holding off the Yankees for a 5-4 victory. Colome’s strikeout rate has fallen back to near his career average (it was 21.9% before today’s game and is 21.7% for his career) after striking out an impressive 31.4% of batters last season. Despite the dip in strikeout rate, Colome has remained successful at the back of the Rays bullpen. However, a diminished strikeout rate can be a predictor of future struggles, as Colome’s 3.84 xFIP would seem to indicate. If Colome’s 2016 strikeout rate turns out to be a one-year thing that he never approaches again, his position as closer may not ultimately last. Until things go south, which by no means has happened yet, Colome has a firm grip on the role and should be universally owned.

• With his team trailing 5-0, A.J. Ramos was brought into the bottom of the eighth inning against the Dodgers. He struck out two, but also allowed a walk and a two-run home run. That’s just about how things have gone this season for Ramos: he has a respectable 26.8% strikeout rate, but a high 14.3% walk rate. Both ratios are right in line with his career averages, so it’s not that Ramos has been much worse this season than he has in the past. The problem for fantasy owners is that Ramos has just four saves on the year through more than a quarter of the season, after he put up 40 in 2016. Ramos has always had a high walk rate, so there’s no reason to jump ship now if you liked him before the season. Expect Miami to encounter more save opportunities in the final three quarters of the season than they did in the first, and Ramos should be a fine closer when all is said and done.

Closer Grid:

[Green light, yellow light, red light: the colors represent the volatility of the bullpen order.]