Bullpen Report: July 16, 2017
It’s officially that time of year. A deal was struck between the Oakland Athletics and Washington Nationals on Sunday that sent relievers Sean Doolittle and Ryan Madson to the Nats in exchange for Blake Treinen and two prospects.
That the Nationals made a move for bullpen help doesn’t come as a surprise, but Doolittle and Madson weren’t necessarily the most obvious candidates. Now that the deal is done, the question is: who’s going to serve as closer for a Nationals bullpen that has struggled so mightily this season?
According to SB Nation’s Federal Baseball, Nationals manager Dusty Baker was non-committal:
“I’m not sure. I’ve got to talk to [A’s manager] Bob Melvin. Like I said, both of them have closed, I know both of them have had some arm problems in the past, so it could be both of them, you know what I mean, so we’ll see.”
Although Baker wouldn’t name an official closer, it would appear that the job will go to one of the two newly-acquired relievers from Oakland.
Doolittle is seven years younger than Madson, and he has the strikeout stuff more typical of a closer. He’s striking out nearly 40 percent of batters faced this season, and his career mark is north of 30 percent. He’s always been exceptional at limiting walks, too, as his 4.8 percent career walk rate indicates. He’s also managed to limit homers to the tune of a career 0.78 HR/9 despite being a fly ball pitcher.
When he’s healthy, Doolittle is an elite reliever, but arm injuries have limited him to just 64 innings since 2014. He has spent time on the disabled list this season with a strain in his throwing shoulder.
Madson, meanwhile, has pitched at least 60 innings in each of the last two seasons and already has 39.1 innings this season. This year, he’s featuring a career-high 27.1 percent strikeout rate, and he’s struck out 20.8 percent of batters he’s faced in his career. Like Doolittle, command has never been an issue, as his 7.0 percent career walk rate indicates. Perhaps most impressively, Madson hasn’t allowed a home run per nine innings or worse in any single season since 2006, when he was still a starting pitcher. His consistently excellent home run prevention is made possible by his sterling 48.4 percent career ground ball rate.
Since Doolittle is the more electric of the two, he will probably get the first shot at save opportunities. His recent arm issues and flyball tendencies, however, make him the riskier option. Should Doolittle falter, or if the Nationals decide to go the safer route from the start, Madson is a reasonable ninth-inning option who could do well if called upon. Stay tuned for updates on how this all shakes out.
On Saturday, Alex Claudio picked up his third save of the season for the Rangers. With a 1-0 lead in the ninth, right-hander Jose Leclerc walked the leadoff hitter Lorenzo Cain on four pitches, and so the lefty Claudio was summoned for Eric Hosmer. He struck out Hosmer, then got Salvador Perez to hit into a game-ending double play. On Sunday, Claudio pitched a scoreless bottom of the eighth in a tie game. Claudio has emerged as a possible closer for the Rangers, as Al Melchior pointed out on Friday. He doesn’t boast exceptional strikeout stuff, but he does have a terrific 63.5 percent career ground ball rate that allows him to limit homers and induce weak contact.
The Cardinals are going to a closer by committee, but it didn’t work in their or Brett Cecil’s favor on Sunday. Cecil blew a one-run lead as he allowed two runs on three hits and a walk against the Pirates, and it’s a full-blown red situation in St. Louis. Seung Hwan Oh has struggled all season, especially against lefties, who have a .447 wOBA against him, so Cecil was brought in to face a lefty-heavy part of the Pirates lineup and couldn’t get the job done. Anchored by a strikeout rate near 40 percent, former closer Trevor Rosenthal has the best peripherals in the Cardinals ‘pen, so he should get a consistent opportunity to close at some point in the near future. He’s the most desirable Cardinal to target for now. Despite Sunday’s failed opportunity, Cecil may also be worth an add for those in need of saves, as he’s clearly in the mix for save opportunities moving forward. Cecil boasts solid peripherals in his own right.
Other closer activity: Aroldis Chapman notched his ninth save of the season. Kenley Jansen picked up his 23rd save in 1.1 innings of work. He struck out three. Zach Britton pitched a scoreless inning with the Orioles down six runs. He allowed a hit and a walk. Ken Giles allowed a run on a hit and a walk but picked up his 20th save of the season. Hector Neris allowed a couple of bloop singles to open the ninth with a three-run lead, but he closed things out with a strikeout and two popups. It was his eighth save. Justin Wilson struck out one in a perfect ninth inning in a tie game at home. David Robertson also struck out one in a scoreless ninth inning in a tie game at home. Edwin Diaz needed just 12 pitches to strike out all three batters he faced against the White Sox in the 10th inning to pick up his 16th save of the season. Bud Norris escaped a bases-loaded, one-out situation with the tying run on third base. He allowed a run but notched his 14th save.
Closer Grid:
[Green light, yellow light, red light: the colors represent the volatility of the bullpen order.]
Ben Kaspick is the host Locked On Giants, a daily San Francisco Giants podcast on the Locked On Podcast Network. Follow him on Twitter/X @BenKaspick.
In a points league (SV 8) (HD 4) (K 2) (BS-6) would you rather Doolittle or Rosenthal?
Probably Rosenthal.
Just by Steamer:
Rosenthal: 78 points for Ks, 20 points for holds, 56 points for saves, and it’s hard to say for blown saves. 154 points.
Doolittle: 48 Ks, 12 holds, 0 for saves (which is probably wrong.) 60.
Doolittle is likely a matchup dependent closer in a committee. Rosenthal could win the job outright before next Sunday. The two are dead even as measured by every metric but SIERA. Rosenthal’s SIERA is still excellent. And Rosenthal is the more consistently healthy of the two relievers.
agree totally. probably use both, doolittle if theres a lefty due. I don’t think the nats are done though & bet both end up in a setup role.
Nats desperate for a lefty set-up man, in righty-heavy bullpen. Madson makes more sense as closer.
Don’t the Nats already have 3 lefties in the pen in Romero, Perez and Grace?
I kind of agree that Madson might be the favorite but Doolittle has very little in the way of splits (for his career, righties have been merely bad against him (.261 wOBA) while lefties have been awful (.224)). Given the situation, this seems a LOT like whoever gets on a run is going to keep the job. Can’t see Dusty being progressive enough to go with a “matchup closer” situation.
I think all of us who play is closer-grubbing mixed leagues are happy we no longer have to keeping trying random bad Nationals relievers.
That trade results in an unpleasant name listed third on the Oakland closer line. That has got to change, he can’t stay there.
What’s wrong with Coulombe?
Obviously Hendriks has some skills as illustrated by his strikeout rate. But, given the 9.00 ERA and 1.78 ERA over the past month, one might say that he isn’t ideally placed as the number 2 guy in that pen, either. Expect a lot of blown saves in the seventh and eighth innings, not that Casilla is exactly a lock down guy if they get it to the ninth.
Recent results aren’t necessarily indicative of future performance though. He’s been pretty good for the season on the whole.
This chart is the only thing keeping me holding on to Matt Bush. Someone give me permission to drop him.
If you need saves, I think you have to hold onto him. Kela’s hurt. Leclerc’s wild–he’s averaging over 7 walks per nine since returning from the DL. Claudio is only average versus righties.
Rangers are projected for about 35 more wins. Steamer projects Bush to earn 13 saves, more than Chapman, Knebel or Rivero. His value is still pretty surprisingly high, believe it or not.