Bullpen Report: August 20, 2018
Between Paul Molitor‘s recent comments and the fact that Matt Magill and Taylor Rogers pitched the ninth inning in the Twins’ most recent save situation, we can be assured that Trevor Hildenberger won’t be hogging up all of the save opportunities in Minnesota. Hildenberger pitched the ninth inning on Sunday with a one-run lead against the Tigers, though because he got the final out of the previous inning just before Eddie Rosario’s go-ahead solo homer, he was pitching for a win and not a save. The situation was slightly different, but Hildenberger followed his recent pattern of creating a little stress. He began the ninth inning by allowing a Victor Reyes single, and two batters later, Reyes got into scoring position by way of a walk to Jose Iglesias. The drama ended there, as Hildenberger got the final two outs.
Hildenberger has now pitched a scoreless inning in three straight appearances, so maybe it’s unfair to keep the “shaky closer” label on him. Still, the trends that have plagued him for more than a month have been present in his recent outings. As the table shows, Hildenberger has not been as good as he was earlier in the season at getting chases, avoiding contact on pitches in the strike zone and getting whiffs in general.
| Time Period | IP | O-Swing% | Z-Contact% | SwStr% | ERA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before July 15 | 45 | 36.9% | 81.7% | 14.7% | 2.80 | 23.5% |
| Since July 15 | 15.1 | 28.7% | 88.5% | 10.8% | 9.39 | 18.7% |
The pre-July 15 version of Hildenberger was a legitimate candidate to be an effective closer. The current version is one to be avoided in fantasy, regardless of how many save chances he gets. He can’t be started, but he is not necessarily droppable. He has the potential to be much better and just has to reverse his recent trends to be trustworthy.
Hildenberger is not the only current closer who has been struggling since right around the All-Star break. Hector Rondon’s strikeout and swinging strikes rates have been in a free fall since July 13. He did pitch a 1-2-3 inning against the Athletics on Sunday, but it was the eighth inning and with a 9-4 lead, as A.J. Hinch gave Rondon some lower-leverage work after having blown saves in each of his last two outings. Over his last four innings, Rondon has recorded exactly one strikeout and one swinging strike. Going all the way back to July 13, he has a 20.4 percent K% and 6.3 percent SwStr% over 12.1 innings.
Rondon’s fantasy owners need to be prepared to replace him if his contact-friendly ways continue to catch up with him. He is outright droppable in the shallowest of leagues (i.e., 10-team mixed).
Kirby Yates has been scuffling, too, though for not as long and for different reasons altogether. Over his last 9.2 innings, Yates has racked up 16 strikeouts, but he has also allowed four runs on 12 hits. The death blow to Yates’ chance for a win on Sunday was A.J. Pollock’s solo homer, which put the Diamondbacks ahead, 4-3, in the top of the ninth inning. Yates’ recent aversion to ground balls (20.8 percent rate since July 28) has contributed to a .300 Iso (three home runs and three doubles) over his last nine appearances.
Quick hits: Since Corey Knebel‘s demotion from the closer’s role, both of the Brewers’ ninth-inning save opportunities have gone to Josh Hader. The lefty converted both saves, with the latest on coming on Sunday against the Cardinals…Rick Renteria continues to spread the White Sox’s save chances around and play the matchups. On Sunday, Thyago Vieira began the ninth inning with a 7-6 lead over the Royals. Once he retired Whit Merrifield (.326 wOBA against righties), Jace Fry came in to face Alex Gordon and Salvador Perez. Fry struck them both out and earned his second save. A different reliever has recorded each of the last five saves for the White Sox…Wade Davis and Adam Ottavino each built on their recent bouncebacks on Sunday, with each tossing a scoreless inning against the Braves. Davis recorded his 35th save, while Ottavino was credited with his 26th hold…The Cardinals will soon have two key members of this season’s rotation joining the bullpen. Luke Weaver was demoted to a middle innings role on Saturday, while Carlos Martinez (shoulder), who is returning as a reliever for the remainder of the season, could be activated on Tuesday, according to MLB.com…Matt Barnes allowed a C.J. Cron solo home run in the ninth inning of Sunday’s Rays-Red Sox series finale, giving the visitors an insurance run. The righty also struck out three batters in the inning and got six swinging strikes on 22 pitches. That’s a microcosm of Barnes’ recent history. Over his last six innings, he has allowed four runs and compiled a 71.4 percent flyball rate, but he has also struck out 11 batters and induced swinging strikes on 22 (or 21.4 percent) of his 103 pitches…After having struck out eight batters with just one run allowed over his first 5.1 major league innings, the Padres’ Trey Wingenter got a chance to pitch in his first high-leverage situation on Sunday against the Diamondbacks. With Matt Strahm and Craig Stammen having already been used and Phil Maton and Robert Stock having shouldered heavy workloads recently, Wingenter pitched the eighth inning with a 3-2 lead. In allowing Daniel Descalso’s solo home run, he absorbed his first career blown save rather than notching his first-ever hold.
Al Melchior has been writing about Fantasy baseball and sim games since 2000, and his work has appeared at CBSSports.com, BaseballHQ, Ron Shandler's Baseball Forecaster and FanRagSports. He has also participated in Tout Wars' mixed auction league since 2013. You can follow Al on Twitter @almelchiorbb and find more of his work at almelchior.com.
I get the concern with Rondon with Osuna a very obvious choice to replace him. . . . .but you’re actually recommending that people drop him off of 4 innings (2 of which were scoreless)?
No, I’m recommending people in 10-teamers drop him based on his last 12+ innings (I cited the stats in the column). This is based on my own experience in my 10-team league.
You cited both 4 inning and 12 inning stats. Got it, strikeouts are down, walks are . . . .well, they’re up but only a tiny bit. But that’s just small sample size theater there. Let’s take it back to his last 16 appearances (16.2 IP), or back to 6/28/18. Then is K% is 28.4% and 7.5%, basically in line with his season-long stats.
Since 6/28 he’s gone:
– 9K and 1BB over 4 appearances starting 6/28
– 3K and 1BB over 5 appearances
– 6K and 1BB over 3 appearances
– 1K and 2BB over his most recent 4 appearances (which, BTW, came against 2 good offenses in Seattle and Oakland)
Rondon is showing no loss in velo and all the rest of that is just noise. The guy has had very good results and peripherals for 5 years now. Frankly, based on the streaks above, it seems like we ought to be expecting a nice run here over his next 4 or 5 appearances.
Personally I think you’re overreacting to the stats. As a Rondon owner, I’m definitely concerned since he has Osuna looming over him. But I’m not worried about the performance, that just looks like noise. Certainly the noise may lead to him being demoted and that is a concern, I just see “droppable” as being a pretty severe overreaction myself.
(But then I’m a little gun-shy on dropping guys who are definitely the current closer, especially if they are good pitchers like Rondon. The last guy I dropped preemptively was Bud Norris earlier this year because it sure seemed like Holland was going to take over. That worked out less than well for me 🙂 )
I think the thing to keep in mind with Rondon is that the Astros have played the hot-hand all season with their closer. There’s no better example of this than Rondon becoming the closer over Giles, Devenski, Peacock, Harris, etc. There hasn’t been a long leash for whoever has the role, and the next guy is line is whoever’s been the hottest. Once Osuna gets a shot, it’s his gig unless/until he falters.
I don’t know, have the Astros really been playing the hot hand this year? I went through the pitching game logs at b-ref and I think the only 2 guys to get consecutive save chances this year are Giles and Rondon. Peacock and Devenski have been given some shots in there but never consecutive chances. Personally I think they had decided Giles wasn’t the guy as far back as last year and were kind of searching until they stumbled onto Rondon.
Of course, now they have 2 guys. I kind of think the Astros are smarter than most teams and aren’t going to jerk their pen around like Matheny or Scioscia have been the last couple years. That sort of instability doesn’t make pitchers better – just looking at those 2 organizations’ closer results should make that clear.