Bullpen Report: August 12, 2015

– It’s not 100% clear that tonight helped sort out Detroit’s bullpen quagmire at all. Up 7-4, the Tigers called upon Bruce Rondon (not Alex Wilson) to try and finish off the Royals this evening. After inducing a groundout, things got hairy for Brad Ausmus, as the burly righty hit Alex Rios and then walked Omar Infante to bring the tying run to the plate. This got Wilson (who hadn’t pitched yet) quickly to his feet and warming behind Rondon. To Rondon’s credit, he punched out the noodle-batted Drew Butera and got Alcides Escobar to fly out to end the thread and garner “SV” number 2.

Assuming Wilson and Rondon are the two top candidates in this pen, ERA tells us that Wilson (1.72) should easily be the anchor over Rondon (5.60). However, the peripherals tell a different story. Rondon owns an elite 34% K% and has been bitten by a .381 BABIP and 61% LOB%, both on the wrong side of league average. Meanwhile, Wilson has been as lucky as Rondon has been unlucky, owning a .257 BABIP and 81% LOB%. The end result is that Rondon has a 2.22 SIERA and Wilson’s sits at 3.76. Aside from the rates, Rondon has the fire, with his fastball sitting at 98 mph this season (Wilson is at 93 mph). So what do the tea leaves say? Well, Rondon got tonight’s save, has the better DIPS predictors, and can blow hitters away late in games. I’d reckon that gives him the leg up at the moment, even if his control could be an Achilles’ heel. That said, in deeper leagues, I don’t see the harm in speculating on Wilson or Al Alburquerque since it feels this bullpen could always flip on one bad outing.

– Hector Rondon blew his first save since “re-becoming” the Cubs closer tonight, although he only gave up a single hit while striking out the side. While an error by Addison Russell wasn’t his fault, (the other) Rondon didn’t necessarily help his cause with a couple wild pitches. Rondon’s usage by Joe Maddon has been someone baffling this year, as the righty not only owns a sterling 2.85 SIERA, his ERA is even better, sitting at 1.71 after tonight. With Jason Motte’s velocity dipping, he’s out of the picture. Pedro Strop and Tommy Hunter are always lurking, but Rondon really should have a pretty tight grip on this job. Of course, he’s not green-lit because Joe Maddon runs this ship and Joe Maddon has never been one to use closers conventionally.

– The Red Sox didn’t have a save situation today, but Ryan Cook certainly isn’t taking advantage of a shaky back-end of the bullpen. The former closer gave up four runs while only recording a single out against the Marlins today. With his velocity down a couple miles per hour and his walk rate the worst it has been since 2011, it’s possible he’s burning through his remaining chances at the big league level. After Junichi Tazawa’s third blown save in his last four outings yesterday, it appears Jean Machi is the guy to own for now. That said, the Red Sox pen is enough of a dumpster fire that it may not be worth investing unless you really think a few SV are going to be the difference in your roto league.

– Quick hits: David Robertson blew a save tonight, preventing the White Sox from topping the Angels in regulation. Of course, the BS probably should go to Jose Abreu, who botched a play miserably by removing a force during an attempted game-ending DP, which allowed the tying run to sneak in the back door. Robertson hasn’t been elite-elite in the second half, but his rates remain fantastic and Chicago has a ton of cash invested him. Jake McGee worked the eighth and Brad Boxberger worked the 9th (dancing around a couple free passes). The pecking order remains McGee-Boxberger, but McGee’s rates remain superior and he could still vulture the occasional save. We’ll keep this pen yellow for now. Cody Allen and Ken Giles notched multi-inning saves and continue their climb up the “rest of season” closer board. For this in deep holds leagues, Joel Peralta to the DL and Yimi Garcia is back (again). Tanner Scheppers is out on a rehab assignment, but it’s looking more and more like the 2013 version of him is gone forever.

Closer Grid:

[Green light, yellow light, red light: the colors represent the volatility of the bullpen order.]