Breakout Breakdown: Anthony Rendon

Although it’s more of a repeat, Anthony Rendon provided another fantasy relevant year while improving upon his average. Rendon set career highs in both doubles and extra-base hits despite appearing in 11 fewer contests compared to 2017 . In 2018, he finished with 88 runs, 24 home runs, 92 RBI, two stolen bases and a .308/.374/.535 slash line. In spite of missing time with an ankle injury last year, Rendon finished tied for first in the National League in doubles, fourth in average, fifth in on-base plus slugging percentage (.909), sixth in slugging percentage and ninth in extra-base hits (70). Rendon also reached base safely in 33 straight games between August 21st and September 25th hitting a robust .369/.454/.662 in the streak.

Over his last 25 games, Rendon scored 22 runs with 12 doubles, six home runs, 26 RBI, one stolen base, 11 walks and a .374 average. This late season surge fueled Rendon’s final batting average but it also points to a potentially overlooked upside heading into 2019 drafts. Targeting a player for batting average does not seem sexy in today’s fantasy landscape, but taking into account his last three year slash of .292/.374/.504 over 1,604 at-bats, Rendon provides a very stable skill set in a volatile category. He’s one year removed from walking more than he struck out and in the last three years owns a 11 percent walk rate compared to a 15.4 strikeout percentage.

In both 2017 and 2018, Rendon finished with an isolated power of over .200, a home run plus fly ball rate of at least 12 percent, a contact percentage of at least 87 percent and increased his hard hit rate to 37.8 last year up over three percent versus his total in 2017. A spike in line drive percentage boosted his average to .308 last season and he became more aggressive at the plate with his O-swing (swings at pitches outside the strike zone) up but also raised his swing percentage at pitches within it. For the visual learners, like myself, here’s Rendon’s 15 game rolling chart from the last two years with his hard hit percentage and fly ball rates:

Last year, the two seemed to work in congress producing one fewer home run compared to 2017 even though he logged fewer games. However, Rendon accrued more at-bats last year due to his early season aggressiveness taking fewer walks. It remains to be seen how Rendon’s approach will be to start 2019, but he could be in line for an increase in RBI. Rendon racked up 38 RBI in 232 at-bats when batting third in the lineup and 43 RBI when hitting cleanup in 212 at-bats. Presently, MLB Depth Charts slots Rendon to hit third, a spot he could remain in all season with the pending departure of Bryce Harper. This would put Adam Eaton‘s career on-base percentage of .363 and Trea Turner’s .346 on-base percentage ahead of Rendon in the Nationals lineup.

Steamer projects Rendon to appear in 149 games with 548 at-bats resulting in 83 runs, 23 home runs, 86 RBI, five stolen bases and a .287/.372/.485 slash line. These align with his three year slash rates quoted earlier and past production. So, could Rendon exceed this baseline projection?

Using his xSTATS from the last two years, it’s possible to draft Rendon for his projection but appropriate for more production. In 2017, Rendon’s expected slash of .306/.416/.543 accompany 26 expected home runs and an expected on-base average of .406, pretty, pretty good. Last year, Rendon’s expected slash finished at .311/.382/.556 with 28.5 expected home runs and an expected on-base average just below four hundred. Without being privy to how the baseballs will be wound this year, if Rendon could grow his home run total into the 26-to-28 range backed by his expected statistics, then he becomes even more valuable.

Through nine paid NFBC drafts, Rendon carries an average draft position of 52.33 as the 51st player off the board. Justin Mason’s #2EarlyMock series also featured nine drafts during which Rendon’s ADP placed him as the 55th player taken. It’s wild the range of outcomes also mirror each other. In the NFBC, Rendon’s earliest selection is 37th overall and his lowest at 70th. In the #2EarlyMock series, Rendon’s minimum pick of 46 and maximum at 72nd.

Consistent may not be sexy. However, Rendon’s proven capable of hitting for average, driving in runs and being a worthy target in fantasy. If he can stay healthy for 150-plus games, hits third all season and sees his home run total migrate towards his expected numbers, a career year could lie in the offing. Best part, not having to pay the ADP tax. Buy the baseline, but plan on him beating it with health.