Brad Johnson RotoGraphs Chat – 9/13/16
by Brad Johnson
September 13, 2016
Here are the results of today’s chat!
| 4:00 |
: Today’s chat is brought to you by Yasmany Tomas
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| 4:00 |
: 29 home runs, -0.1 WAR
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| 4:01 |
: aka switch-hitting Jermaine Dye
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| 4:01 |
: Hey Brad. Hope all is well. I’m in contention in my AL-only league and it’s slim pickings on the waiver wire in terms of SP. I would greatly appreciate if you could please rank the following: C.Lewis, Tomlin, M. Perez, McHugh.
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| 4:02 |
: I don’t know their matchups offhand, and that’s really what matters. Stadium and opposing lineups.
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| 4:02 |
: Tomlin seems a little broken to me right now while the others are just blah but functioning
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| 4:02 |
: haven’t watched Lewis all season that I can recall
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| 4:03 |
: Thoughts on what we can expect from Mike Clevinger ROS and in 2017?
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| 4:03 |
: Basically nothing RoS
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| 4:03 |
: He’s one of the 90 percent of pitching prospects who need to adjust to the majors. Some don’t, some do so very quickly, some take awhile
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| 4:04 |
: I do think he has a useful future in him, but it all depends on his ability to develop and execute game plans
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| 4:04 |
: I don’t really have a question. I like you’re Vogelbach suggestion, especially since he’s going against a righty tonight.
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| 4:04 |
: Yea I’m interested to see how this works out. He’s the most John Kruk hitter I’ve seen since the Krukker himself
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| 4:04 |
: but he does look a little slower on bat speed
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| 4:04 |
: hard to really see that with just eyes watching a screen
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| 4:05 |
: True or False? Roman Quinn will lead the league in SBs the rest of the way.
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| 4:05 |
: I’ll go with false, but he should be way up there
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| 4:05 |
: if he doesn’t suffer three injuries between now and the end of the season
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| 4:05 |
: that guy is the most injured player I’ve seen since Rocco Baldelli
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| 4:06 |
: let’s see what other “most X I’ve seen” I can come up with today
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| 4:06 |
: Khris Davis is a top 5 power bat in the AL next season. Agree or disagree?
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| 4:06 |
: No arguments here
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| 4:06 |
: Easy comparison given the team and position, but have the A’s found another Donaldson in Healy? Offensively speaking.
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| 4:06 |
: I wouldn’t go that far
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| 4:07 |
: they’ve found a viable offensive player who may not have a defensive position if early metrics are to be believed
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| 4:07 |
: Does Clayton Richard keep the good vibes going tonight?
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| 4:07 |
: I’ll bet on a 2.90 ERA RoS
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| 4:08 |
: My gamble is that he’s made the contact management adjustment, i.e. 2015 Keuchel, 2016 Hendricks
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| 4:08 |
: still need a lot of defensive help
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| 4:08 |
: also I didn’t vet that he’s avoiding Coors Field, I think so though
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| 4:08 |
: C. Lewis: vs. Oak, @ Oak, vs. Mil
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| 4:08 |
: From the first question. Certainly a good slate of situations
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| 4:08 |
: Any excitement for Vogelbach being called up? Should I grab him in my AL-only?
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| 4:09 |
: I’m not certain how he’ll be used
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| 4:09 |
: the club is going all out on getting Ben Gamel time despite nominally contending, but I haven’t seen anything said of Vogey
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| 4:09 |
: I know I’d be playing him every day
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| 4:09 |
: not sure they do
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| 4:09 |
: Lind is banged up which helps this week
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| 4:09 |
: Where will Houston ultimately play Guriel? 1B? They seem pretty much set with altuve/Correa/Bregman
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| 4:10 |
: corner outfield or 1B seem reasonable
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| 4:10 |
: Gerrit Cole was really bad yesterday against the Braves his first start off the DL. If he isn’t shut down, is there any reason for me to trust him the rest of the way (18 team keeper so I won’t drop him)
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| 4:10 |
: Trust? No, I think not
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| 4:10 |
: You may still find yourself using him in certain situations
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| 4:10 |
: Jorge Mateo, do you see him fitting into the Yankees future plans? Didi is looking pretty good right now?
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| 4:11 |
: There’s always room for a good middle infielder
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| 4:11 |
: Mateo is still years from the majors, that’s plenty of time for plans to mutate
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| 4:11 |
: Pretty good Didi could disappear or become very good
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| 4:11 |
: everyone in my ottoneu league is dropping players. there’s no good reason to do this, right? just means that 11 other teams get to pick up your guy for less than he might go for on the open market next auction. tell the non-contending people to stop dropping their offseason cuts during the regular season!!
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| 4:12 |
: So yea, ottoneu note: Hold your players until you’re forced to dump them
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| 4:12 |
: I kind of assume your rivals are cycling in $1 “keepers” at the expense of vets they would cut
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| 4:12 |
: what would a hypothetical Trout-to-the Cubs trade return package look like for the Halos?
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| 4:12 |
: I tweeted one out the other day, lemme find it
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| 4:13 |
: ok, I suggested Hendricks, Baez, Candelario, Ian Happ, Eloy Jimenez, and Kyle Schwarber
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| 4:15 |
: That’s if they’re avoiding including Bryant or Rizzo, which they obviously should. Might be ways to hang onto Hendricks
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| 4:15 |
: Assuming comparable matchups down the stretch, do you go Martin Perez or Ariel Miranda? Thanks.
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| 4:15 |
: Perez
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| 4:15 |
: Miranda is homer prone and unimpressive
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| 4:15 |
: Which speedsters do you see getting regular playing time in 2017? Jankowski, Broxton, Altherr, Roman Quinn, Chris Owings, Brinson or Margot?
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| 4:15 |
: Well, Altherr isn’t really a speedster
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| 4:15 |
: he could get to 20 SB, but that’s basically a ceiling
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| 4:16 |
: Jankowski, Quinn, and Peraza (not on your list) should start
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| 4:16 |
: all three could contend for SB crown
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| 4:16 |
: Broxton may get a chance, but I just don’t see enough contact to invest long term
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| 4:16 |
: Brinson and Margot are midseason adds
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| 4:17 |
: Owings is in that Altherr bucket, maybe 25 steals
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| 4:17 |
: Is there anything to Ariel Miranda? He’s looking good recently.
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| 4:17 |
: I’m not seeing it yet. I haven’t looked closely in a couple starts though
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| 4:17 |
: Brad, I’m dying to know will you be doing an innings threshhold breakthough piece on TDG? Its one of my favorite parts of the season!
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| 4:18 |
: Do you mean the innings cap exploits wherein you load up on IP on your last day to accrue stats? I’ll remind people of the strategy sometime before the last week
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| 4:18 |
: I find it’s best to use guys prior to the last couple games if you can arrange it
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| 4:18 |
: less competition for the volume
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| 4:19 |
: Quintana more of a start or an exploit? Comfortable starting him in an innings-capped league?
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| 4:19 |
: I’m starting Quintana, but there is rain in the forecast now
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| 4:19 |
: How high are you on Nomar Mazara as a 12 team mixed Dynasty keeper? Is he more exciting than Jose Peraza, for example?
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| 4:20 |
: Depends on your time horizon, I think Peraza will outperform him next year simply by piling up 70 steals and 100 runs with a decent batting average
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| 4:20 |
: but Mazara is the better dynasty asset in most settings
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| 4:20 |
: You a fan of Jharel Cotton?
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| 4:20 |
: Sure. I’m still in wait and see mode, but the minor league profile is promising. Don’t expect instant gratification
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| 4:21 |
: that’s how the league works these days
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| 4:21 |
: used to be a lot of guys would jump on the stage and dominate, now big league hitters are so much better than Triple-A guys that it takes time to adjust
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| 4:21 |
: I assume it’s an access to data thing
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| 4:22 |
: Trying to pick some keepers for next season, 14 team H2H and get to keep 3. I have Corey Seager locked in as my franchise player and looking to keep 2 of Benintendi, Moncada, Alex Reyes, Musgrove, Josh Bell or Wilson Contreras
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| 4:22 |
: I’ll cross Bell, Contreras, and Musgrove off the list for you
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| 4:22 |
: They’re never going to get to that first round designation you need to justify keeping a growth asset
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| 4:23 |
: I’m a little hesitant about keeping Moncada too, maybe see how he does in AFL to gauge when he’ll return
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| 4:23 |
: DJ LeMahieu, top 5 2B?
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| 4:23 |
: So quietly good.
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| 4:24 |
: Not ready to call him a consistent top 5 though
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| 4:24 |
: if he was having another 20 SB season, sure
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| 4:24 |
: but he’s showing signs of slowing down on the bases
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| 4:24 |
: I need to bench one of these hitters next week (5×5 head to head playoffs): J.Lamb, J.Turner, K.Davis, M.Kemp, J.Bautista. Am I crazy benching Bautista?
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| 4:25 |
: So I haven’t looked at matchups, but Kemp is the least interesting bat
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| 4:25 |
: not crazy to pick Bautista though, depending on the matchups
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| 4:25 |
: they’re all similar profiles and asset class
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| 4:25 |
: Which 2 for my UTIL spot to start tonight: Cron (v Walker), Khrush (v Duffy), CGomez (v Peacock), Soler (v Garcia)?
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| 4:26 |
: Gomez is somehow a leadoff hitter which helps
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| 4:26 |
: Probably go Cron for the second pick
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| 4:26 |
: Walker just hasn’t looked himself
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| 4:26 |
: Drafted Dee Gordon in the second round this year, sigh. Curious about what you think of him for 2017?
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| 4:27 |
: I’m hoping he’s a good buy low. My gut says he’ll be the Adrian Beltre of draft season
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| 4:27 |
: For clarity, Beltre averaged like $5 across all leagues, but he cost $18 or more in all of mine
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| 4:28 |
: so good leagues will still pay for Gordon
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| 4:29 |
: as for actually production, I think he’ll mostly rebound. He currently has the highest soft contact rate (if he were qualified) plus a low line drive rate
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| 4:29 |
: I doubt he’ll remain that bad in 2017
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| 4:29 |
: How much will I hate myself if I add Ricky Nolasco in my AL-only league. There’s seriously nothing but scraps.
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| 4:29 |
: I use him in DFS occasionally (DK only)
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| 4:30 |
: when you need to throw a hail mary, he’s one of the few garbage pitchers who has a shot at a complete game
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| 4:30 |
: I had a bye for the first round of my H2H playoffs last week and the team I wanted to face was ahead in his matchup going into Sunday. The only way for his opponent to pull it out would have been to grab every streamer available and try and steal the QS category. I used all my moves to add and drop four of them, hoping to put them on waivers. Yahoo has a mechanism to prevent that, it turns out, but in your opinion: dick move or good managing? My friends all hated it.
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| 4:31 |
: Nothing wrong with that in my book since Yahoo forces you to wait through a game before they qualify for waivers
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| 4:32 |
: if Yahoo didn’t have that feature and I was commissioner, I would manually switch everyone back to available and issue you a warning
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| 4:32 |
: OBP dynasty where I have Arenado,Bryant 3B/OF, and Correa. Do I hope that everybody maintains their current eligibility and keep Moncada, or do I trade him?
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| 4:33 |
: You can shop Moncada, but yeah, I think you keep him
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| 4:33 |
: The upside is peak Alfonso Soriano
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| 4:33 |
: That’s better than any of those three you listed
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| 4:33 |
: and it’s also 4+ years in the future whereas those guys are peaked now
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| 4:34 |
: Curious to hear your thoughts on Barreto. He looks ticketed for 2B…much of a chance he’s a future 20/20 player?
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| 4:34 |
: I haven’t investigated him recently
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| 4:34 |
: the questions are slowing down so I’ll take a moment to form some opinions
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| 4:35 |
: Ok so here’s my take…
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| 4:35 |
: he could be a 20/20 player but I’m not confident the power and speed will really coincide
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| 4:36 |
: If he were to debut next year, he’s probably a 30 SB pace with below 10 HR pace
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| 4:36 |
: in 5 years he probably hits 20 home runs with 5 SB
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| 4:36 |
: Does Cutch get traded this offseason and we see Meadows in May?
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| 4:36 |
: It’s distinctly possible
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| 4:37 |
: He’s still valuable, but the club has to be wary of any extension scenarios after the last two years
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| 4:37 |
: Don’t forget, he’s been mediocre for the majority of the last two seasons now
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| 4:38 |
: 12-team, 25-man, H2H, weekly-locked rosters. Do I start Fulmer at Cleveland next week? If not, any sneaky streaming recommendations (I already grabbed Gsellman for home starts against Atl and Phi). My staff is in a hard way after drafting Stras and G. Cole as my aces.
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| 4:38 |
: I like the Fulmer start. There’s an article on the main page about the Indians preference for breaking balls, Fulmer can work pure fastballs
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| 4:38 |
: Start Duffy and Quintana today? Duffy’s velo up a bit… Or I can wait and lean on Arietta, Lester, Lackey, Hamels and Hill..
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| 4:39 |
: So both games have storms in the forecast, but I’d be starting them otherwise
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| 4:39 |
: do you have an innings cap or some kind of constraint or are you just dodging matchups
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| 4:39 |
: Should I be worried about Gausman (@BOS, BOS, @TOR) or Odorizzi (@BAL, BOS, TEX) matchups rest of the season in 10tm H2H playoffs? Could drop one or both to stream SPs with arguably better matchups (e.g., Finnegan, DeSclafini, Taillon).
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| 4:39 |
: Oh I’d be quite worried about both of them
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| 4:40 |
: Aaron Judge has struggled to adjust to big league pitching. What’s your long-term opinion on him?
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| 4:40 |
: I’ve never been very high on him, mostly for statistical reasons
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| 4:40 |
: from the little video I watch of him as a prospect, I didn’t see much hope for adjustments
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| 4:41 |
: So while it’s enticing to hope he figures out the power, he’s in the Joey Gallo asset class
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| 4:42 |
: there are a lot of Judges in minor league ball, Tyler O’Neill and Adam Brett Walker come to mind
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| 4:42 |
: Brad Peacock, decent flier or stay far away?
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| 4:42 |
: I’m steering clear
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| 4:42 |
: Which closer ROS: Jeanmar Gomez, Tony Watson, or Adam Ottavino?
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| 4:42 |
: Watson
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| 4:42 |
: assuming you’re maximizing save ops
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| 4:42 |
: I have Danny Salazar at $5 heading into his option year. Granted we don’t know severity of his injury but would you 1) keep at $5 or 2) take the risk and gor for the extra year
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| 4:42 |
: the extension option is the tricky part
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| 4:42 |
: with what we know today, yea, you keep him
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| 4:43 |
: I think we need more info to decide on an extension
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| 4:43 |
: I’m looking to shop him in my deep dynasty this offseason
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| 4:43 |
: those forearm strains turn into TJS far too often
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| 4:43 |
: Pitch Anibal against the Twins tomorrow?
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| 4:43 |
: It’s tempting, but I think Anibal is pulling a Kennedy. He’s just gotten through a few outings without his usual big HR numbers
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| 4:44 |
: Looking ahead…where do you see Alex Bregman ranking among SS next season? Overall top 100?
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| 4:44 |
: I haven’t really thought about rankings yet. I really hate rankings…
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| 4:44 |
: God help me for asking this, but…Miguel Gonzalez (@ KC, @ Cle, vs. TB) or Brad Peacock (@ Oak, vs. LAA, @ LAA)? Thanks!
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| 4:44 |
: Gonzalez
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| 4:44 |
: When he returns, O’day or Felipe Rivero? (Saves/holds league)
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| 4:44 |
: Rivero
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| 4:44 |
: Would you drop the perennially 2nd half slumping Sal Perez for either Wieters or Wellington Castillo?
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| 4:45 |
: Can you stream? Get Castillo’s LH matchups and mix the other two (plus others)
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| 4:45 |
: Any way you’d roll Brad Peacock next week (@Oak, LAA) in a 12-team, 25-man roster, 5×5, H2H, weekly-locked lineups league? A few other two-start options: Skaggs(@Tex, @Hou), Cotton (Hou, Tex), Taijuan (Tor, @Min), Wisler (@NYM, Mia), Rubby (@SD, @Bal).
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| 4:45 |
: so many Peacock questions
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| 4:45 |
: So the matchups are fine
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| 4:46 |
: But he’s a fly ball pitcher and very homer prone
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| 4:46 |
: no big strikeout stuff, average walk rate
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| 4:46 |
: the total picture is a 5.00 ERA
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| 4:47 |
: That list of alternatives is just as scary though
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| 4:47 |
: Walker doesn’t look right, Wisler is mediocre, Rubby is so volatile, Cotton is still an unknown, and Skaggs has been struggling
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| 4:48 |
: only Wisler and Rubby have good matchups
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| 4:48 |
: Danny Duffy in 2017?
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| 4:48 |
: I think we have to consider him a top 30 SP
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| 4:48 |
: crazy as that would have sounded entering the season
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| 4:48 |
: Do you like Bradley Zimmer as a prospect stash or is he too much swing and miss? Other guys I considered are Brinson, Gleyber Torres, Hedges.
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| 4:48 |
: From that list, I’d aim big with Zimmer
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| 4:48 |
: reminds me of Springer and Domingo
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| 4:49 |
: should fall somewhere on that spectrum
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| 4:49 |
: Considering bumping Darvish for K Seager in my last keeper spot. All the top 3B spoken for and I like his breakout potential
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| 4:49 |
: Well I really don’t foresee a Seager breakout after so much consistency for what? Six seasons?
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| 4:49 |
: Five
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| 4:50 |
: But I do think you can keep him over Darvish
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| 4:50 |
: smells like a coin flip right now, and I tend to favor hitters in those scenarios
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| 4:51 |
: So Brad Johnson, who has been asked to leave leagues because of his “style of play”, thinks I’m a dick too. Sweet.
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| 4:52 |
: I haven’t really been asked to leave any real leagues. But you can’t just go blocking every player on the wire because you have the time to do it. You can roster a couple because that comes at a cost to you
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| 4:52 |
: Who are a couple of bounceback guys for next year?
Also, any guys that outperformed this year that we should sell high on if we have them? |
| 4:52 |
: Good questions, but I’d need to do some research before I get into it
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| 4:53 |
: He’s understandably raw, due to limited experience, but how long does it take Moncada to become passable at 3B, with k’s low enough to unlock the power/speed?
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| 4:53 |
: I’m going to guess late ’17 to mid ’18
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| 4:53 |
: Pitching prospects are rough to bet on, but how good can Urias be over the next couple of years?
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| 4:53 |
: He could be a top 10-25 guy
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| 4:53 |
: he could be somewhat worse
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| 4:53 |
: Re: Duffy/Quintana, just dodging matchups, but they’re not that bad today. Quintana has been good vs. CLE and Duffman is at home. I could take a pass on today and use them vs each other on Sunday since it’s a QS league.
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| 4:54 |
: I’d just use them.
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| 4:54 |
: RE: Next year’s speedsters – how about Charlie Tilson for CWS? If he’s #4 OF he could be another Dyson
|
| 4:54 |
: I was interested to see Tilson play down the stretch. I do think he’s a 4th OFer, and I don’t see him as Dyson-fast
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| 4:55 |
: I can keep Posey in the 2nd or Zunino in the 22nd. My preference is to find a buyer for Posey and roll the dice that it’s not a huge advantage to have a top 5 player when players 6-30 are garbage
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| 4:56 |
: I’m not sure I fully understand what you’re saying. I’d probably keep the premium C though. Zunino has turned back into himself lately
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| 4:56 |
: He should be a 22nd round pick in most leagues and formats
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| 4:56 |
: I don’t think Bregman will even be SS-eligible, will he?
|
| 4:56 |
: He needs one more GS
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| 4:57 |
: and Yahoo may arbitrarily assign it to him anyway
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| 4:57 |
: then there’s a good chance Houston flips Correa to third over the offseason
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| 4:57 |
: that was the original plan anyway
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| 4:57 |
: things do tend to change, especially if they aren’t positive Bregman will break camp with the club
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| 4:58 |
: I really need a 2 start pitcher for my h2h league’s final week. Walker tor,@min Eduardo Rodriguez @bal,@tb aj cole @mia,@pit Clayton Richard Ari,sf. Could you rank?
|
| 4:58 |
: If you don’t need any K, I go for Richard
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| 4:58 |
: otherwise, ERod then Cole
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| 4:58 |
: Rob Zastryny going to be in the Cubs rotation next season?
|
| 4:58 |
: Doubtful
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| 4:59 |
: I mean maybe he’ll get some starts
|
| 4:59 |
: but the Cubs have some much excess talent and payroll, I can’t imagine they intentionally give a guy with a 4.33 Triple-A ERA a rotation spot
|
| 4:59 |
: Strickland or Maurer ROS (saves only)?
|
| 5:00 |
: Strickland
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| 5:00 |
: What is your favorite scoring system in Ottoneu? I’m looking to join a league next year
|
| 5:00 |
: FGpts is the best
|
| 5:00 |
: Ok, I have to wrap up promptly today, evening plans and such
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| 5:00 |
: a few more then I’m off!
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| 5:01 |
: Salazar and Strasburg just died. Assuming I can’t find a decent pitcher with a good matchup…what would you trust more in a couple spot starts…A pitcher on a hot streak, or just taking whoever’s pitching against a crappy offense?
|
| 5:01 |
: Usually targeting the bad offense, subject to “true talent”
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| 5:01 |
: What is Wilmer Flores’ value in a standard 10 team ’17
|
| 5:01 |
: Roster glue off the waiver wire
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| 5:01 |
: Will Moncada be 2B eligible next season?
|
| 5:01 |
: I’m not even convinced Moncada will be active next season
|
| 5:01 |
: his eligibilities may be irrelevant
|
| 5:01 |
: A lot of buzz about Nick Senzel. Are you buying him as a future star? Cup of coffee next fall or ETA 2018?
|
| 5:02 |
: 2017 ETA if he doesn’t slow down
|
| 5:02 |
: Here’s my parting thought: the Cincinnati Reds are much closer to contending than they appear at first glance
|
| 5:03 |
: Shades of retro-Marlins with BHam and Peraza atop the lineup
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You can follow me on twitter @BaseballATeam
Brad Johnson: I’m not sure I fully understand what you’re saying. I’d probably keep the premium C though. Zunino has turned back into himself lately.
4 2 5 .330 OBP in the past 30 AB. The further you go back the better it is.
High K’s, but also 40 pts higher on OBP than his career. Zunino is basically Grandal with more Ks, but same AVG and OBP — higher ISO.
In the 22nd round??? I take Zunino.
In retrospect, the correct answer is almost certainly neither. Including some assumptions about keeper costs and league size, Posey is barely below cost at 2nd round. Zunino is either an end-draft (1 C) or mid-teens (2 C) pick. He probably has a better asset at a more important position.