Brad Johnson RotoGraphs Chat – 8/9/16

Charlie: Polanco or Bradley Jr. in a points league? Similar K% and BB% but Polanco’s exit velo and avg launch angle seem to suggest more power ROS. JBJ has the production though. Which do you like? Thanks!

Brad Johnson: Polanco seems to have a couple nagging injuries. I’d go with the healthier player for now

Richardo: Higher dynasty value, Schwarber or Kepler? Thanks!!

Brad Johnson: Perceived value – Schwarber. I probably prefer to own Kepler right now. Could change

Ted: Hey Brad, thanks for chatting! So what are your thoughts on selling Villar in redraft leagues? He’s atop Pod’s xBABIP over-performers list so I figure some regression is coming, plus I’m personally in a good spot with SBs and have a few other speedy guys in Segura and Myers. Time to move him? Secondly, roughly what tier of power bat can I realistically expect in return? Is someone like Pujols an even swap?

Brad Johnson: I’d aim higher than Pujols. Whoever you give Villar too probably gains a lot of points in the SB department. You’ll need to be careful you don’t accidentally hurt yourself by giving away more points than you receive

Brad Johnson: at this stage of the season, forget player values

Brad Johnson: trades should be negotiated entirely on potential points gains/losses

Brad Johnson: Villar should probably return a very high end power only guy for that reason

rustydude: Need one or more AL only holds guys as a couple of mine have graduated to closers. Is JC Ramirez a good one? Any other obscure names? Related… Michael Feliz sits on my bench. What kind of competition does he have for getting holds for the Astros?

Brad Johnson: Astros have a very deep pen. I haven’t looked into Ramirez recently, but he’s been terrible for the better part of 6 or 8 years

Brad Johnson: was part of the Cliff Lee to Seattle trade

Brad Johnson: I hear ya on losing AL holds guys. I’m waiting for a few more to surface. Tyler Clippard is one option

Daily Grinder: In a 10-team keep forever league where I am a strong competitor this season Bregman was dropped (4 man bench). Have Correa, Tulo, Lamb Hosmer at SS/MI/3B/CI respectively. Would you drop any of Sano, Pence, Dahl, Profar, Rendon, Herrera for Bregman or are those all too strong of assets and I am better off letting someone else grab him?

Brad Johnson: Could consider Profar. Bregman might offer more fantasy production despite similar overall talent

Oliver: Thoughts on Yulieski Gourriel ROS?

Brad Johnson: Gotta see him play more than a couple low MiLB games

Brad Johnson: you hope for Jose Abreu, you probably get closer to Byung-ho Park

JD15: Thoughts on Joe Musgrove ROS and future? Thinking about trading 5 years of him for non keep Scherzer. In playoff race

Brad Johnson: Love Musgrove. I just traded non-keeper Scherzer and Britton for $8 Villar and $7 Musgrove

Brad Johnson: I think it’s a reasonable swap, the ceiling isn’t a mega ace. You do need to be realistic about what this does for your chances

Brad Johnson: does Scherzer give you 20% of a championship or 1.5% (hint, it’s usually the latter)

Brad Johnson: might not be worth losing 5 years of Musgrove if that’s the case. Calculated gamble either way.

Oliver: Is Cutch broken? Buy low or stay away?

Brad Johnson: You can buy low

Brad Johnson: he does just enough to be rosterable and has a good lineup role. Don’t pay for even a hint of upside on his current line

Brad Johnson: So we’re talking Danny Valencia or James Paxton as the level of player you’d be dealing

Mystery Team: Hey brad, tebow worth a stash in a 12 team dynasty to you?

Brad Johnson: Lel

Brad Johnson: and just in case you’re serious, nobody has grabbed him in my super deep 20 teamer. Can’t imagine he can be more than a reliever.

Oliver: More saves ROS Watson or Betances?

Brad Johnson: Coin flip. Both hold the job RoS.

Napoli’s popped top: With Hanley’s wrist issues, is it OK to move on from him for someone like Gurriel in a 10 teamer?

Brad Johnson: I wonder if there’s a better option out there. But yea, you can gamble on another option

Alex: Which side do you like? Machado or WilMyers+Gallo+LeonysMartin?

Brad Johnson: Gimme Myers+

Brad Johnson: I like stolen bases, Machado went from hero to zero very fast in that category

Garblargh: Stanton at 1st round status for a keeper league. What’s a good target to get for him? I need pitching.

Brad Johnson: A like pitcher, i.e. Scherzer.

Brad Johnson: You’re going to have a hard time profiting on Stanton via a SP

Brad Johnson: they break/decline too often

rustydude: How many GS/week would you estimate for Benintendi, going fwd?

Brad Johnson: 4.5? This non-platoon talk is premature. He has 13 PA

Jalen: Jankowski is fast, but will he SB more than Billy Hamilton rest of the way?

Brad Johnson: I’ll go with no, but he’s a cheap alternative with similar production

Maris: Billy Hamilton already has more SB in the second half of the season then the first half. Whats your best guess at whats behind the surge?

Brad Johnson: Health or he might have been working on something

Bill: My Chris Davis for his Kenta Maeda and Alex Bregman? It’s a 12 team keeper, cats are 5×5 + OPS and K/BB

Brad Johnson: Not a huge fan of disaggregating talent, but this could be a big win down the road.

Mike: When looking at currently injured players in dynasty formats for 2017 and beyond, which injuries scare you more than others and would make you stay away (say, Schwarber’s ACL vs Harvey’s thoracic outlet syndrome) from acquiring someone?

Brad Johnson: Most types of pitching injury – pitchers are just so volatile in general.

Brad Johnson: Leg injuries for speed-only guys. Some types of hand injuries for power bats.

Brad Johnson: Not worried about Schwarber’s injury – more concerned with the already existing issues

JD15: Are you a believer in Dahl? Off to a hot start, plays in Coors 🙂

Brad Johnson: Huge

Brad Johnson: That Rockies lineup is going to be beastly next season. Assuming they can find a viable 1B.

Yulieski’s Squirriel: How comfortable would you be going into next season with some combo of Mazara/Kepler/Dahl as your 2,3,4 OFers, or is that too much volatility?

Brad Johnson: It’s a lot of volatility. I’m planning a similar, bigger gambit in my home league.

Brad Johnson: Mazara, Dahl, Bregman, Reed, Swanson, Zimmer, Lamb, Naquin, Tapia, Benintendi, Hedges, Contreras. Figure the spikes will offset the flops

Brad Johnson: oh and Story. All $8 to keep (can push one to $1)

Seth: would you trade machado/$37 for odor/$17 and Pineda/$14 (all next year prices)?…16 team 5×5, deep rosters, playing for next year…debating trading or keeping machado…

Brad Johnson: I’d want more for Machado. I’m known to be a little pessimistic about Odor though

Brad Johnson: I feel like I have aggressive projections for him, then I talk to other people…

Discollama: In a super deep keeper (18-23 keepers, 20 team mixed) I traded away Altherr, Sonny Gray, and Luis Severino for David Price, Rendon, and Clint Frazier, how do you think I did?

Brad Johnson: Excellent

Neel: are there any under the radar prospects that you seem to like more than others in the industry? deep dynasty league, looking for guys that aren’t on the general top 100 lists

Brad Johnson: Phil Ervin comes to mind

Brad Johnson: going to have GABP helping his middling power

Brad Johnson: could be a 10/30 guy with low average, solid OBP

Josh: Hard to believe, but Correa has barely been a top-10 SS this year. Does he finish on a high note?

Brad Johnson: your guess is as good as mine on the finish. I thought this was how he was going to play last year. Should have stuck to my guns

Discollama: On a scale of 1-10, how worried should owners be with David Price? Are the BoSox kicking themselves?

Brad Johnson: I’ll say a 4. I think he can adjust out of his current struggles

Brad Johnson: I’m sure the Sox thought they’d get much more instant gratification

Brad Johnson: if his postseason struggles continue, they’ll be pissed at themselves

Gruntled: thoughts on Kemp ROS and next year? Atlanta stinks but San Diego wasn’t exactly a juggernaut either

Brad Johnson: He’ll get DFA’d by some point next season

Daily Grinder: 10 Team keep forever league hurt by Kershaw and Salazar DL Stints, have Giolito, is he a must hold or possible cut for streaming purposes?

JD15: Rostering Giolito in my 18 team keep 12 (up to 5 years) league, but I could use someone who is giving me innings. Feel like giving up all of Giolito’s potential is too much for stud non-keeper. How should I proceed? Trade deadline is Sunday.

Brad Johnson: Couple consecutive Giolito questions.

Brad Johnson: Here’s the thing, the ceiling is massive. To get there, he needs a breakthrough or two. Could be a frustrating guy or a future stud

Brad Johnson: I usually believe in selling this profile in most fantasy formats

Brad Johnson: Maybe ask for a stud non-keeper and a modest keeper like Thornburg

Oliver: Have Britton Betances and Watson in 2 RP weekly league. Roll with all three or look to deal? Related, very few trades actually happen

Brad Johnson: Trade if you can, can’t really mix and match this in any way

Cameron: Hey Brad, what are your thoughts on Luis Severino for the rest of this season and if he performs well as a potential keeper? He definitely struggled early on but is still only 22 and has some electric stuff.

Brad Johnson: I love his stuff

Brad Johnson: The narrative is similar to Giolito

Brad Johnson: he has to continue to improve to reach his ace ceiling, could turn into a frustrating guy instead

Brad Johnson: ok, I’m still working on the first 4 minutes of comments, so I’m going to skip forward to present

Tax Man: Is Matt Boyd rosterable in an 11-team AL-onlly?

Brad Johnson: Yes, there’s back of rotation upside

Brad Johnson: and the Tigers could supply the run support for a win streak

Batman: Salazar or Cole 2017+

Brad Johnson: Salazar if he comes out of this injury healthy

Chopper Dave: Thoughts on Bundy? SSS and all, and the name on the jersey may bias opinions, but he has looked pretty good lately.

Brad Johnson: Yea I had serious doubts, but it really looks like he’s improving

Brad Johnson: I’m late to join, but I’m on the bandwagon

Macho: What are your thoughts on keeping non-elite pitchers? I was burned this year keeping Sonny Gray, Garrett Richards and Trevor Rosenthal. Should I use all 10 keeper spots on position players and just draft pitchers?

Brad Johnson: That’s my take. Protect an ace if you have him. Otherwise lock down most reliable numbers

Doe: Does Jeffress take over if Dyson falters?

Brad Johnson: Yep. Keone Kela is healthy again too

Yulieski’s Squirriel: Between his age and the description of his contact/discipline/bat skills, I am holding out that we get a non-30 HR version of Matt Carpenter out of Gurriel. Is that too optimistic?

Brad Johnson: Not really what I’m looking for, but the upside could match that production. Remember, upside is well above the median projection by definition

Frida: Can Matt Duffy be a sneaky source of value in AL-onlies playing for Tampa?

Brad Johnson: He’ll gain interesting eligibilities if nothing else

Brad Johnson: Needs to get the contact skills back online

Jorge Polanco: I’m the truth.

Brad Johnson: I’ve been waiting for the Twins to actually play Polanco for a thousand years

Brad Johnson: love the contact skills and versatility

Brad Johnson: fantasy value may trail behind his real world value

Santa: Pence or Upton ROS?

Brad Johnson: Pence I guess

Joe: Brad, any thoughts on Rob Whalen? I see Dillon Gee-sque stuff with slightly better breaking pitches. I like him in deeper leagues next season.

Brad Johnson: Honestly, I haven’t seen him throw yet. The stat sheet says /ignore unless you need bad K rate

Brad Johnson: by bad K rate, I mean strikeouts with bad everything else

Clif Bar: Who do you like better in a 5×5 over the next 5 years – Mazara or Ozuna? Lamb or Gallo?

Brad Johnson: Mazara and Lamb

Batman: Bregman or Benintendi in a 5×5 keeper league?

Brad Johnson: Benintendi could have epic interactions with Betts

Brad Johnson: though it’s not like Bregman doesn’t have interesting teammates

Kamala: Thoughts on what you’ve seen from Benintendi thus far in the majors?

Brad Johnson: Lots of liners, good balance at the plate, instinct for finding the barrel

Brad Johnson: in short, I’m in love

Brad Johnson: there are still some warts though, let’s give him some time to grow

Jimy: Can we talk about Jorge Polanco some more? Is he worth grabbing in AL-onlies?

Brad Johnson: Go immediately

Brad Johnson: Shocked he isn’t already owned

Santa: Who is the next reliever that could be closer soon for those of us with an extra spot on our benches?

Brad Johnson: Hector Neris or Edubray Ramos?

Brad Johnson: Actually, Fernando Rodney if he’s still on your wire

sad boy: need to get saves after trades took them awya from Cody Allen and Jeremy Jeffress. any under-the-radar or prospective closers you can suggest?

Brad Johnson: see above. Jeffress and Kela are also options. Boxberger if Colome falters. I saw rumbles out of COL too if you want to brave Coors

Phil: Bryce Harper… I mean WTH is going on?

Brad Johnson: Sullivan had a nice article about him awhile back. Or maybe it was August.

Brad Johnson: In any case, teams found a hole, Harper hasn’t adjusted

John Bradson: What do you think of Alex’s take on Hernan Perez today? Is he a breakout candidate for 2017 or will he not get enough PA to be fantasy relevant?

Brad Johnson: (I haven’t read it yet)

Brad Johnson: My own opinion of Perez is that he’s a 90-95 wRC+ hitter with enough power and speed to be interesting anyway

Brad Johnson: as you hinted, playing time is a huge issue

Brad Johnson: plenty of room in the OF for now, but that’s temporary

ichirosan: Pricer or Archer ROS?

Brad Johnson: push

Guest: Question on a couple of former fantasy studs: do Gio Gonzalez and/or David Freese provide much value ROS?

Brad Johnson: Minimal

Brad Johnson: more likely from Gio

Brad Johnson: more likely should not be construed as likely though.

Brad Johnson: if that makes sense

ryN: Need pitching help in my 12 team roto for the stretch run. Looking to unload some offense, does getting Scherzer back for E5 sound about right or am I setting my sights too high?

Brad Johnson: Might be a hair too high

Brad Johnson: worth trying it

Santa: Who’s the best keeper next year if we only keep two? Correa in the 10th, Rizzo in the 1st, or Mookie in the 1st?

Brad Johnson: Moookie

marv: Have an empty NA spot, does anyone come to mind that will be up in Sept have a chance to make an impact yet this year?

Brad Johnson: Zimmer

Macho: In a 10 player keep forever league, is Benintendi going to be worth keeping (12 teams)

Brad Johnson: yes

Brad Johnson: you might earn a loss in 2017, but long term, you’ll be grateful

Jordan: A guy in my 10 team 5×5 H2H league really wants David Dahl. His most recent offer is Altuve, Fowler, and Stroman for my Cano, Dahl, and Kemp. Jump on that?

Brad Johnson: No.

Brad Johnson: That’s a fair trade

Brad Johnson: If he’s desperate for Dahl, you should leverage more

Brad Johnson: Drop Cano from the offer for a lesser player or get a better pitcher than Stroman

Chopper Dave: Is Caminero a good holds candidate in AL-only?

Brad Johnson: Maybe. So volatile though

Rated Rookie: What’s your projection for a full season Trea Turner look like? Dee Gordon-esque with a few more HRs?

Brad Johnson: He doesn’t have that kind of speed. I’m only expecting around 20-25 swipes

Seanto: Any thoughts on Jesse Winker?

Brad Johnson: He’s hurt last I checked

Brad Johnson: oh he’s healthy again

Brad Johnson: he’s a plate discipline only guy, power could play up in GABP

Brad Johnson: a couple years before he’s a solid play

Brad Johnson: Joey Votto once had a similar profile, but that’s an unusual outcome

confused about most things: Do you see Starling Marte as a large upgrade over Wil Myers next season?

Brad Johnson: No, comparable valuations

Guest: Place an FAAB bid on Arquimedes Caminero?

Brad Johnson: small

Avi: Could Harper still net more than Machado or Bryant in a Keep forever league?

Brad Johnson: Oh definitely

Brad Johnson: somebody will be willing to buy that year+ of dominance

Brad Johnson: now, the bigger issue is that whoever has Machado or Bryant is going to want to add Harper while losing them

John: I dont see Choo staying healthy ROS, can you name a pitcher for whom I would be happy to deal?

Brad Johnson: Musgrove, Stroman?

Macho: Favorite obscure olympic sport that you watch and then forget about for 4 years?

Brad Johnson: well it’s not really obscure, but I’m enjoying Rugby 7s

Brad Johnson: men’s starts today

Brad Johnson: ladies gymnastics are fun because the US team is Tiger Woods as hell

The : Thoughts on Carrasco?

Brad Johnson: I don’t have anything new to add. I was right there with Eno building the bandwagon

Brad Johnson: still on it

KD: NL only 10 team 5×5. I’m close to 1st and I need power, average and wins. My Harper, Contreras, Folty, Maurer and Teheran or his Freeman, Ramos, Pollock, Chapman and Arrietta?

Brad Johnson: That’s a lot of moving parts

Brad Johnson: could depend on who takes Pollock’s place when you DL him

Brad Johnson: I think this offer helps the categories you need

Brad Johnson: You’ll kick yourself if Harper goes full nuclear, otherwise I think you can do it

Avi: So Brad earned a few points yesterday in his men’s league. Can we get in depth coverage for his splits and whether someone else is possibly a sneaky start?

Brad Johnson: http://www.pointstreak.com/baseball/team_stats.html?teamid=91528&seasonid=30231

Brad Johnson: our team stats (we’re not having a good season). I made some mechanical changes since returning from injury 3-for-10 with 3 BBs and a HBP. Also should have had a double or triple last game. Well hit to the gap, should have rolled to the fence but it landed in a puddle and stopped

Joel: It feels kind of like nobody is talking as much as they should about Corey Seager. With .300-ish batting average potential and 30 HR power, is in the conversation for a 1st round pick in 2017?

Brad Johnson: The lack of SB takes him well out of the first round for me

Brad Johnson: All of the best players are 20/20 threats

Brad Johnson: except maybe Bryant, Arenado, and Machado

Brad Johnson: I’d put Seager right up there with Story for first non-Machado SS off the board

Bryzzo: I need another bat with good power and OBP. Guys I can trade for – Napoli, Braun, D Fowler, Yelich, Hanley, and Victor Martinez. Regardless of cost to acquire them, who is going to be the best the ROS?

Brad Johnson: Braun, Fowler, and Napoli are my preferred from that list

Fred: Assuming no setbacks, is Pollock going to be worth deploying when he comes back?

Brad Johnson: I think so. He was good the last time he came back from this

Seanto: traded $15 Cano for Rosell Herrera, Jose De Leon, and a couple of lower level guys in 25 tm dynasty with no roster limit but cap of $189. How’d I do?

Brad Johnson: I probably prefer Cano, but it does depend on your roster composition

Gavin: Just dropping in to say that Ottavino has the ninth in Colorado so that’s the place to grab free saves off the wire today!

Brad Johnson: As I mentioned, I heard some rumbles. Still have to brave the altitude

Baller McCheese: Benentendi or Bradley Jr. – for just 2017? Beyond?

Brad Johnson: I’ll say Bradley for next year, Benintendi long term

Neel: in a 16 team dynasty league, needing to acquire some SP for the stretch run and the playoffs. are there any 3/4/5 type starters that you think might be undervalued/easier to acquire than they should be? Thanks

Brad Johnson: Bartolo, Stroman, and Hellickson come immediately to mind

Brad Johnson: Ray, Tyler Anderson, Tyler Chatwood if you don’t mind Rockies

Brad Johnson: Liriano might turn out alright in Toronto back with Martin

Brad Johnson: Andriese if he’s ever stretched out enough for 5 IP

JD15: AJ RAmos headed to 15 day DL, in a holds and saves league, thoughts on Mauricio Cabrera as a replacement? Not a lot of great options on the wire at the moment?

Brad Johnson: Not a bad idea

Brad Johnson: Gotta love the Chapman velocity even if the overall profile is rough

JD15: How much more do you like Kyle Hendricks over Tanner Roark in a 5 year keeper league?

Brad Johnson: 15-20%?

El Cafe: Dynasty league: My Ortiz and Benintendi for Harper?

Brad Johnson: Yea that works for me

Alex: Naquin or Beni ROS?

Brad Johnson: I’ll say Benintendi on the promise of more playing time

Aaron Judge: When will I be called up and am I Joey Gallo 2.0?

Brad Johnson: September and not exactly

Brad Johnson: Should be a lot more contact but the power profile is much smaller

Brad Johnson: granted, Judge is a well above average power bat. Gallo is a once every 10 years power guy

Brad Johnson: and a lot more contact still means an unacceptable K rate

Brad Johnson: without a breakout, I don’t see how Judge can play in the majors

Cameron: When will Swanson be called up?

Brad Johnson: Guessing late April 2017 now

Brad Johnson: thought it would be this summer, but he’s stalled out a little

Joey: I have Schoop in a 10-team dynasty league and don’t know how to value him. He’s behind Devon Travis and Dustin Pedroia. Any advice? I almost think he’s droppable but he’s so young and seems to be improving…

Brad Johnson: He’s a tough one to value. Almost depends on your leaguemates. I have some leagues where he’s disliked and some where he’s in high demand

Brad Johnson: Ok time to wrap things up

N.W.enO: You think Carrasco will shift back to being studly for the Indians down the stretch? He’s had rough few outings.

Brad Johnson: Yep. No concerns from me. I suppose he could be hurt…

Jeet: Chris Davis – droppable in 12 teamers for a hot FA pickup like Aaron Ather or should I wait it out (H2h – coasting to playoffs)

Brad Johnson: Wait it out

Brad Johnson: Absolutely not droppable

Brad Johnson: you paid knowing this is par for the course

Hot Stove: Traded away Miguel Sano keepable at 40$ after next season. Got back $2 Brinson, $1 De Leon and $16 Braun. 450$ dynasty league. How did I do

Brad Johnson: Kinda meh. I approve of selling at that keeper price, but I’m not a huge Brinson fan yet. He’s a lotto ticket

Brad Johnson: De Leon could be a nice get and Braun is fine for the short term

Brad Johnson: I suspect a better offer might have materialized eventually

MoFo: Leake or Bauer tonight? It ain’t pretty on my waiver wire.

Brad Johnson: Leake

Brad Johnson: and yuck

John: What are your thoughts on fantasy owners that are in the playoff hunt trading with guys that are clearly out of it? Bush League?

Brad Johnson: As long as the deals are fair, it’s fine by me

Brad Johnson: nothing worse than a league in which half the rosterable players are basically sitting unused

DyNASTY: How would you recommend salary cap increases in a dynasty league if player salaries increase by 5$ at the end of the contract?

Our cap is 450$ and FAs are effectively 0.5$ to pickup and drop & 1$ to keep.

Brad Johnson: not sure you need to increase the cap, unless I’m not understanding the format

Brad Johnson: just forces more good players to the draft

Tre: General strategy question: I’m in first in my league with a decent, but not insurmountable, lead. The guys right behind me in most categories are also in the 2nd-4th spots in the standings. How do you feel about intentionally making some (slightly) lopsided trades with the guys in the 5th-7th range? They’re not a direct threat to me, but the extra value would presumably help them pick up ground on the others and thus help secure my lead.

Brad Johnson: I’m a big advocate of managing the scoreboard

Brad Johnson: It’s risky if your team gets slumpy though

Brad Johnson: I usually say I want to give them bonus value then work out a fair trade instead

Jordan: Re: The Dahl trade- How about shooting for Maeda instead of Stroman? His pitching is not great. Scherzer, Gray, Gio, King Felix, and Taillon are the other options.

Brad Johnson: Maybe start by asking what a Schezer-Altuve scenario looks like

Joey: RoS: Stroman or Wainwright? H2H league.

Brad Johnson: The Jays have a 6 man rotation, but i expect better numbers from Stroman

Brad Johnson: up to you

Toki: Peter O’Brien Vs Jallo who has more power?

Brad Johnson: Gallo by miles

Brad Johnson: ok, I’m signing off, good game folks

Kyle: Gallo stat line with 600 at bats in 2017?

Brad Johnson: .190/.245/.400 25 HR?